As always, here are my NCAA Tournament projections, both out of tradition, and as a public service to the gambling community, of which I am a proud, addicted member. (Which reminds me -- I think Drew and I are going to try to hit the boats at least once this weekend, since we both have every day of the opening couple rounds off. Yup, I learned absolutely nothing from "The Comeback").
Also as always, if these prognostications are not THE longest NCAA tournament predictions you will read this year, you can feel free to help yourself to a beer in my cooler at the next summer tailgate. (Because there ain’t a shot in hell I’m tailgating again until it’s “t-shirt optional” weather).
If you're using my picks to fill out your bracket, please, ignore Billy Dee -- put down the paper bag with your Colt 45 in it, let the blunt burn out, and smack yourself around a few times to wake up. I am horrible at predicting this tournament! That's why I post these things every year, as an easy guide to gamble on these games with! All you have to do is say "wait, who did Steve pick?", look it up, and bam!, you know who not to take most of the time.
Actually, I am worse than horrible at picking the tourney. I'm the dude back in 1992 who predicted the 2 seed in the West, the Arizona "Super" Wildcats, to win the national championship. They lost in round one to Steve Nash's Santa Clara team, despite going on a 25-0 run at one point. Yes, a team I picked goes on a 25-0 run, and loses. And to think I actually wonder why I haven't been able to retire at age 34 from my gambling profits.
Having said that ... I have won the gambling pool twice (1995, 2002), and I finished runner up last year. I also somehow, incredibly, was the only person in our ESPN pool (out of 60 something entries) last year to pick Duke to win it all. Not even our resident Dookie apologist – and brace yourself champ, there’s some good Dookie humor coming your way over the next fifteen freaking pages – not even Dusty picked his school to win it all. So maybe I'm getting better at this after twenty some odd years of trying.
(Nah. That can't be it).
As always, this is what my main bracket in our ESPN competition (and any other competition I enter) will be. Also as always, this thing might top 20 pages by the time I'm done rambling on each game's prediction and getting in a few cheap shots and Shecky Greene-type funny jokes … (aka they’re not even remotely funny) … so you might want to print it off and take it to the second office if you're reading at work just to be safe. Sadly, I don't have a Boss Button like Gregg Easterbrook does, so you're on your own in terms of figuring out which printer to use.
Let's start in the East, since the CBS selection show did.
(As the first side rant, how awesome is it going to be to have Charles Barkley giving us game recaps, highlights, predictions, and analysis the next two weeks! As one of only four NBA die-hards in the greater Kansas City metropolitan area, I know a lot of you have never seen Chuckles and Kenny Smith on "Inside the NBA". Trust me, he's fantastic. Already he's called Billy Packer a "jackass" (there’s more on Bill still to come in fourteen some odd pages), and admitted yesterday that "if I ain't heard of your school, I probably ain't watching you play", when describing how he would analyze, predict, and recap said games over the next two weeks. Also, Barkley has a well-known gambling addiction (hey, like me!), and I guarantee you he's wagering on these games. If he loses a huge mark, this might be the biggest train wreck on a pregame show since Rush Limbaugh said the media was propping up Donovan McNabb because he was black. (A charge that was proven 150% correct, by the way). As someone far more famous and accomplished than me once noted: I don't know how the hell this is going to end, but either way, it's going to be something really special).
* East Regional Predictions:
First Four Games:
16 UTSA over 16 Alabama State. I have not watched one second of action involving either team this season, and I'm guessing that is not going to change over the next few days.
12 UAB over 12 Clemson. Good for the committee for taking a mid-major regular season champion over an endless supply of mediocre ACC schools. Unfortunately, the committee took the wrong mid-major regular season champion, it should have been Missouri State. Oh well. Clemson is 0-6 against the top 50 this year ... and got in as an at-large! Are you f*cking kidding me?!?! 0-6! And they're an at large! At least UAB has a couple solid victories this year, and they'll add a tourney win here.
Round of 64 Games:
1 Ohio State over 16 UTSA. I'm guessing this won't spend more than a couple seconds on any television I am watching. Should be an absolute ass kicking.
9 Villanova over 8 George Mason. There is no logical reason for this prediction. Villanova enters having lost five straight, nine out of ten, and eleven out of fifteen, and George Mason is probably the best mid-major team in the nation. I just refuse to believe Jay Wright can't milk one last gasp victory out of the sliding Wildcats. He's too good of a coach to go out like this. Plus, Gus Johnson has the call on this one. Something wacky is gonna go down.
4 Kentucky over 13 Princeton. Was very impressed of what I saw of Kentucky yesterday. They dominated a pretty solid Florida team that I have going pretty far. Wouldn't shock me at all if two weeks from now, John Calipari is hanging yet another Final Four banner that will be taken down within three years due to major NCAA violations -- he is a perfect 2 for 2 in that regard (the 2008 Tigers that broke every rule in the book, and then some, and the 1996 Minutemen, whose primary violation involved assistant coaches and assorted UMass boosters paying self-employed models to service Marcus Camby. That one has always fascinated me. First of all, that UMass had / has boosters. Incredible. But even more incredible, Mr. Camby has to be the first even semi-decent looking dude in college that had to pay for sex. Unless you count picking up the bar tab, and I sure as hell didn't. I mean, dude! You're 20! You're the most well known athlete in a five state area! And you have to pay to have fun after a game, or on a Tuesday night in mid December?!?! There's plenty of questions that raises, but since my goal is to keep at least 43% of my posts rated R or cleaner, let's just move on now. I mean, we haven't hit any Dookie predictions yet, and those are always good for a Shecky Greene-like punch line or five).
5 West Virginia over 12 UAB. Setting up a rematch of last year's East Regional final. Also an interesting contrast between arguably the luckiest Final Four coach ever (Mike Davis), and arguably the most cursed coach in hoops today (Huggy Bear). Huggy's had so many talented teams, yet has only reached two Final Fours, and zero national title games. Meanwhile Mike Davis back-stabs his way into replacing Bob Knight, lucks into one of the biggest train-wreck regionals of the decade (as a 5, he beat a 10 to reach Atlanta), and then somehow beats the guy who would replace him when he was fired three years later in the Final Four (Kelvin Sampson) before getting embarrassed by Maryland. OK, I pretty much had nothing for this matchup, so let's keep on rolling.
3 Syracuse over 14 Indiana State. I would argue this is Coach Boeheim's deepest, most prepared for March team since 2005. Having said that, those are the teams that usually crap out early -- that 2005 team didn't survive the first round, losing in overtime to Vermont. (And as a side note, KU lost to Bucknell not even 80 minutes after the Cuse lost in overtime. Both defeats were on St. Patrick's Day. The only even semi-remotely, possibly, "ok after six years the pain might have dulled enough to at least evoke a smirk" moment from that night that I don't want to permanently erase from my memory is the text from Dusty after KU lost: "nice win ku! i'm guessing you'll be a no show now" at Tanner's downtown for some late-night drinking on that blessed national holiday. Uuh, yeah. Let's just say I was in no state to drive. From the moment Taylor Coppenrath's three's started mounting for Vermont until Wayne Simien's final Patrick Ewing vs the Pacers-esque layup missed, I am pretty sure I consumed every drop of alcohol in the house and made two refill trips to Matchette Liquors. Let's hope this St. Paddy's Day goes a little bit better than the 2005 one did).
6 Xavier over 11 Marquette. Total coin flip. Xavier's made three straight Sweet Sixteen appearances, and is an overtime loss to Ohio State away from that being six straight, including an Elite Eight appearance in 2004. Marquette probably shouldn't have gotten in, to be honest ... but they're not the "lucky as hell to get in" team that I'm riding to the Sweet Sixteen.
2 North Carolina over 15 LIU. Please, CBS / TNT / TBS / whatever the hell TruTV is, please -- set this one for a 10:45pm ET tipoff. I need something boring and utterly unwatchable to fall asleep to. Thanks in advance, programming dudes. And that reminds me, I still need to confirm I have TruTV. Don't want this to be a NFL Network type situation, there's still a few days to change my (mean gene okerlund voice) cable and/or satellite provider.
7 Washington over 10 Georgia. Georgia is the worst at-large team in the field. Their loss to Alabama on Friday was one of the all time epic meltdown defeats. Washington is my sleeper in this region. They're good enough to reach Newark, if not Houston.
Round of 32 Games:
1 Ohio State over 9 Villanova. If it's George Mason instead of Villanova, it'll be a more competitive contest, but either way, Ohio State wins comfortably and cruises to the swamps of North Jersey.
5 West Virginia over 4 Kentucky. The Wayne Allyn Root Memorial Game of the Round of 32.
3 Syracuse over 6 Xavier. This will be a surprisingly uncompetitive contest. Having said that, I just have this sneaking, lingering fear that Rick Jackson is going down in this one. Just a really bad feeling that something is gonna happen in this game that screws the Cuse in the next round, like Onauku's injury last year (no way Butler beats Syracuse if Okinze was clogging the middle. Hell, they still almost beat Butler without him). Let's hope that like many gambling intuitions I have, this one is 100% wrong.
7 Washington over 2 North Carolina. Now this one, programming dudes, please -- put it in prime time, put it on CBS, and for the love of God, assign Gus Johnson's crew or Verne Lundquist and Bill Raftery to this one to ensure it'll wind up as the Instant Classic it appears to be on paper. This might be the best game of the tournament by the time it's all said and done. Plus, you know every Dookie in the house is going to cheer for Washington. (And while I'm not a Dookie -- I'm straight thank you very much -- in the words of the late, great Senator Edward M. Kennedy, "you can bet your ass" I'll be rooting against the Rat Bastard and his Heels. It's the single biggest thing I hate about Ol' Roy. It isn't the "I don't give a sh*t" comment, it isn't the fact that he's got two titles since he left KU (since we finally got one a few years ago), it isn't even the fact that in typical "jump on the bandwagon" fashion, he affixed that KU sticker to his Carolina shirt a few years ago after we beat him and his squad like a government mule two nights before. No, the biggest p*sser about Ol' Roy is this -- his arrival means I have to cheer for Duke at least twice a year, and this year, three times. Screw you Roy, for that. Screw you. I could justify it when my boy Scheyer was there. Now? I just feel dirty. I just feel cheap. I feel like a Dookie lacrosse player in a room full of willing strippers … excuse me, self-employed models – out of my element, completely unsure of what to do, and desperate to find a way out of the situation. What, too soon?)
Sweet Sixteen Contests:
1 Ohio State over 5 West Virginia. Another one of those "I could be talked into this" games that you should run the hell away from. West Virginia is good. Ohio State is phenomenally good.
7 Washington over 3 Syracuse. I have absolutely no idea how to predict this game. When in doubt, and when two squads are as evenly matched as these two are, and you have to pick the contest because the rules require you to predict every game, go with the team that has the best player on the floor. In this case, it's Isaiah Thomas. As much as I love Scoop ... he's gonna get torched in this one. Especially if my scary feeling about Rick Jackson comes to fruition.
The East Regional Final:
1 Ohio State over 7 Washington. Washington could win this game ... but I can already envision how this one is going to play out -- a fired up, sold out Prudential Center, 90% filled with Ohio State fans, raise the energy level, as Jon Diebler comes out, hits a couple early three's, and Washington is calling timeout three minutes in already down 10, not having a clue what's going on. Think KU / Stanford in 2002, still the funnest college game I've ever been to. Ohio State 78, Washington 65.
East Regional Champion: The Ohio State Buckeyes. They are the best team entering this tournament, and thanks to Washington knocking out two of the only three legit threats to them in the region, I have them reaching Houston relatively easily. But the best team rarely cuts down the nets come Championship Monday ...
* West Regional Predictions:
First Four Games: there are no First Four games in this regional.
Round of 64 Games:
1 Duke over 16 Hampton. Hampton has shocked the world before, by knocking out two seed Iowa State back in 2001. Somehow, I don't think this Hampton team is going to repeat a feat like that ten years later. Over / under on number of outrageous statements made by ESPN analysts after this one that any reasonable person would conclude was tantamount to verbal fellating, equally split between Nolan Smith, Kyle Singler, and pick a Plumlee: 1,038,438,442. I like the over.
9 Tennessee over 8 Michigan. Actually I apologize to Georgia -- Michigan is the worst team in this bracket, it's not even close at this point, and yet they're an eight seed. Are you flipping kidding me? This is an 8 seed?!?! A team that hasn't topped 90 all season, has topped 80 once, hasn't topped 75 since conference play began, and was a (typical and utterly predictable) Bruce Weber coaching meltdown away from probably not making the tourney at all! And they're an 8?!?! Bruce Pearl has to be laughing his ass off at this. Tennessee wins comfortably. As comfortably as, say, hosting a couple underage recruits at a barbeque, then lying to NCAA investigators about it. I mean, (dick vitale voice) are you serious? Are you serious? Dez Bryant basically has his collegiate career ended because he lied about having a meeting with a potential agent (Deion Sanders of all people. On second thought, if you're going to trust a dude who once literally drove his car off a bridge to test whether God would protect him, if that's the guy you're trusting with your decision making, it's probably best for all involved to shut the thing down). Anyways, Bruce Pearl commits a more outrageous lie ... and the school wasn't even gonna punish him! The conference stepped in and whacked him for eight games, but still. I love Bruce Pearl, but he should be fired and have at least a two year show-cause penalty slapped on him. Anything less than that, and I trust Dez Bryant has now hired competent legal representation that is ready to slap the NCAA with a lawsuit seeking financial damages for the blatant hypocrisy of the two rulings.
4 Texas over 13 Oakland. If any of the top four seeded teams are going out in round one, doesn't this smell like the team to crap out early? Oakland won at Tennessee, they rolled through their conference, and they've got a tremendous player in Keith Benson capable of taking over a game. And they're facing Rick Barnes, who as I always point out, is the only coach in America to have Kevin Durant, DJ Augustin and Damion James on his roster, and fail to win a regular season conference title, a postseason conference title, or survive the first weekend. Just one of three Rick. I’m pretty sure even I could manage that if I was spotted 22 freaking points, like you were in OKC in the Big XII toonumunt in 2007. If I do a second bracket, I might pick the upset, but for the official Steve Tourney Picks, I stick with Texas. For now. Subject to revision between now and Thursday.
5 Arizona over 12 Memphis. How does anyone think this will be even remotely competitive? This is not your father's Memphis team, so to speak. Hell, it's not even last decade's Memphis team, the one that reached the Elite Eight three straight times, the Sweet Sixteen five straight times, and threw in a National Championship game appearance to boot. (Oh yeah, thanks again guys, for not giving two sh*ts about learning how to shoot a free throw down the stretch. I know, I know -- we'd still have won the championship anyways, since y'all blatantly cheated to get there, but still, it's always nice to win the title on the court, rather than via the court system). Arizona is good. Memphis is awfully mediocre at best. This won't be all that competitive.
3 UConn over 14 Bucknell. Congrats to UConn, for doing what I honestly thought was impossible -- winning five games in five days to take the Big East championship. Having said that, UConn is at least three seeds too high, and Bucknell can absolutely win this game. Kemba Walker can't save their ass every night, can he? Another one that I might pick the upset in a second bracket ... or revisit the original pick by Thursday morning ...
11 Missouri over 6 Cincinnati. Speaking of horrendously over-seeded Big East competition, your Cincinnati Bearcats everyone! And Mizzou, dear God, who's leg did they try to hump to wind up as an 11 seed? Yikes. Michigan is an 8, Mizzou is an 11. Yeah, sure Tourney Committee. Sure. If you believe that's legitimate, fair, and an accurate assessment of the season that was, I've got some ocean front property in Arizona for you to peruse. From the front porch you can see the sea. Yup, ocean front property in Arizona. And if you'll buy that, I'll throw the Golden Gate in free. (its ok, you can sing along for the big finale) If you buy that … I’ll throw the Golden … Gate … in … free. Mr. George Strait everyone! (roaring round of applause!)
2 San Diego State over 15 Northern Colorado. State is good. They're really good. Don't know anything about Northern Colorado, but State is damned good. Since I got nothing else to add, can someone at CBS please, please, since this is a San Diego team, do a “Three’s Company” theme for this game? I know all the greats from that sitcom have sadly departed us – the great John Ritter, the legendary Don Knotts, the incomparable Norman Fell. This world is a much more depressing face without their tomfoolery and hijinks. So come on, throw a dog a bone. Steve Fisher does look frighteningly like Ralph Ferley as the series drug along, after all. And Richard Kline deserves some work thrown his way. (Yes, my love of late 70s / early 80s sitcoms frightens the p*ss out of me. Thanks mom and dad, for plopping me in front of the TV in my formulative years! And sadly, I really do mean that in a positive, rewarding, “no really, that is a sincere thank you” kind of way …)
7 Temple over 10 Penn State. Penn State impressed me, that quarter-final abortion against Wisconsin notwithstanding. You can probably count on one finger the number of teams in the shot-clock era that have scored 36 … and won comfortably. They demolished Michigan State on Saturday, and hung with Ohio State for most of the title game. Also knocked off a few decent teams earlier in the season. Having said that, they're not beating Temple. God don’t like ugly, and ugly doesn’t even begin to describe that abortion against Wisconsin.
Round of 32 Games:
1 Duke over 9 Tennessee. If UNC / Washington is the game I'm most looking forward to in round two, this one is a damned close second. This is gonna be fun. First team to 105 wins! Maybe! OK, ok, 110! Do I hear 115! Duke survives, although if CBS shows the latest Plumlee coming to Duke next year as much as ESPN did this weekend, I'm not sure my television set is going to survive the barrage of Coors Light bottles headed it's way. I mean, for Christ's sake, whatever the hell this Plumlee is, and in annoying fashion, their first names all begin with a M, probably for "mother f*cking morons" which is what their parents are for lacking any creativity or sense when it comes to naming their kids, for Dick Vitale to call them the "First Family of College Basketball", like he (at least in his mind) credibly did yesterday, is just unfathomable. What does that make the Hansborough's? Or the Curry's? Or the Newton's ... wait, Cecil Newton is football, never mind. But that's just incredible. If ESPN's coverage was any more slanted towards Duke, my TV would be rolling downhill from lack of being level or even. It might be time to take the keys away from Uncle Dick, just like ESPN had to from Cousin Mike Patrick a few years ago. (christopher cross voice) I know it’s crazy … but it’s true.
5 Arizona over 4 Texas. If Texas couldn't handle the Morris twins, how the hell are they gonna handle Derrick Williams? Plus, I mean, the coaching matchup here, if you can call this a "matchup", holy God what a mismatch. The "I can find a way to lose to anyone, anywhere, anytime" Rick Barnes against Sean Miller, who has taken the nuclear holocaust that was Arizona basketball after Kevin O'Neill was done with it, and somehow has it winning the Pac 10 not even two years later. This, after maintaining Xavier's excellence after replacing Thad Motta there. If this is close, and I stupidly somehow expect it to be, always bet on the good coach, not the one who invokes memories of Dale Brown and Quin Snyder. (Who, ironically, coaches in Austin in the D-League. The NBA! And it’s D-League! It's Fan Friggin Tastic! And don’t you dare mock our D-League, it’s the only even semi-pro hoops you’ll be seeing until 2014 when this current season is over!)
11 Missouri over 3 UConn. One team is at least three seeds too low, the other is at least three seeds too high. I love Mizzou's draw, by the way. I absolutely love Mizzou's draw. And I say that as the only person in America that took Mizzou to the Elite Eight back in 2002 (as a 12 seed) for the exact same reason.
2 San Diego State over 7 Temple. Every time I've watched Temple this year, which has been about six or seven times, they've completely underwhelmed me. Richmond beat them pretty solidly this weekend. Duke pounded them. Georgetown owned them. Xavier swept them. State advances.
Sweet Sixteen Contests:
1 Duke over 5 Arizona. Arizona can win this game. They won't, but they can. Kind of like me making Dookie jokes – I could keep from writing them. I won't, but I can. (As a side note, I can already feel the rage building up in our resident Dookie apologist. I’m guessing my throw away joke in about eight pages to open the national title game preview has at least a 50/50 shot of coming true right now. Let’s just move on before I arrive on the “under no circumstance do you EVER let him take advantage of the open bar! You hear me! Never! I will beat your ass and drown you in the river if you let him get even a drop of booze at my expense!” list at the reception in a few weeks).
11 Missouri over 2 San Diego State. Look it, I like Steve Fisher. Hell, I absolutely adore the Fab Five. Those Michigan teams were the single best thing that ever happened to college hoops, and arguably the best thing to happen to basketball period since the ABA revolutionized the game. But if there's one flaw he possesses, it's that he blinks when getting stared down. I envision a MU / Memphis from 2009 type game here, where Mizzou's pressing defense keeps forcing turnovers, the Tigers get in front 10-12 points entering the stretch run, and one of the Pressey kids hits a huge three late to seal the victory.
The West Regional Final:
1 Duke over 11 Missouri. Only two teams seeded lower than eight have ever reached a Final Four (One is George Mason in 2006, an 11 seed. The other one, amazingly enough, is also an 11 seed. Even more shockingly – it was a team coached by Dale Brown! Your 1987 LSU Tigers. Yes, Dale Brown has coached in a Final Four! My jaw nearly hit the floor when I realized that. Arguably ... scratch that, unquestionably the worst D1 coach of all time, and even he's reached a Final Four! Yet Mizzou never has. Champions: Never Give Up … Unless You’re Mizzou and You Have No Shot at Winning the Trophy. You’re damned right that “motivational poster” hangs on my cubicle wall). If this is Mike Anderson's final game at MU, it isn't going to end well. Duke 79, Mizzou 72.
West Regional Champion: The Duke Blue Devils. Thank God I'm not responsible for cleaning up the locker room and the showers after the post-game celebration.
* Southeast Regional Predictions:
(Note: every year, at least one bracket ends up a complete and total train-wreck. The Bracket Buster region, so to speak. Last year it was the Midwest, when Georgetown (3 seed) was done on night one, KU (1 seed) didn't see week two, and your regional final was Michigan State (5) vs Tennessee (6), the first time in NCAA history a 5 and 6 seed battled to advance to a Final Four. I say that, because this year's Bracket Buster region, is the Southeast Regional. Or so says Stevo).
First Four Games:
16 Arkansas-Little Rock over 16 UNC Asheville. That UALR Sun Belt title game was awesome to watch, or at least the last couple minutes were. (Yes, I was watching the Sun Belt. In my defense, I was waiting for the game on after it, but still. That, and Zeus was laying on top of the remote, and once that dog gets comfy on the couch, he ain’t moving … unless you get up and open the bag of Beggin’ Strips. I’m lazy. Sun Belt stays on the TV). Since they're the team I've seen play, even if it was about three minutes of action, I'll pick them to be Pitt's (possible) sacrificial lamb on Thursday.
Round of 64 Games:
1 Pitt over 16 Arkansas-Little Rock. Although if ever a one seed was set up to lose to a 16, Pitt is that team. This is the most overrated team in America. They enter this tourney having lost three of five, have no go-to guy (a fatal flaw come March), and shaky tourney coaching. Still, I can't pick them to lose this early.
8 Butler over 9 Old Dominion. Tremendous first round matchup between the two mid-majors that could. In all sincerity, a question for the ages -- if Gordon Hayward's shot goes in last year and Butler beats Duke, does that go down as the greatest college game ever? SI.com argues "yes". I argue "no" -- it would be a tremendous game, one the basketball loving world would never forget, but "greatest college game ever"? I'd argue the Syracuse / UConn six overtime classic was "greater". Ditto the UNC / Michigan title game in 1992. And the greatest upset in college history, the Villanova / Georgetown title game in 1985. To say nothing of the one I’d vote for, Duke / Kentucky in the 1992 East Regional final (the Laettner shot in overtime). But Duke / Butler would absolutely be in the conversation had that shot gone in.
13 Belmont over 4 Wisconsin. Ugh. Is there a more unwatchable team in America than Wisconsin? Not even the New Jersey Nets are this unwatchable. I mean, I'd rather watch a church league whose teams are filled with 30 something out of shape dudes than watch Wisconsin "play basketball". I'd rather watch Gregg "coach" an intramural game back in the day, than watch anything affiliated with Wisconsin men's basketball. That game against Penn State set the sport back at least a decade. Belmont is going to win this game, and it's not going to be remotely competitive.
5 Kansas State over 12 Utah State. Tremendous first round game. Cat backers should be scared sh*tless by this matchup. Utah State is a damned solid team, well coached, that every year scares someone (starting back in 2003, the "forgotten" choke job KU game from the 2000s, when Utah State missed a buzzer beater that would have beaten the Jayhawks). But here's the thing -- they scare the big boys, but they never beat them. I expect the same thing here.
3 BYU over 14 Wofford. Maybe. I think Jimmer gives them a 48 point outing that somehow sees them surviving the upset scare. Maybe.
11 Gonzaga over 6 St. John's. Good God, how is St. John's a six? I mean, did the committee get ahold of some really good weed while seeding this thing? And if so, can I have a hit of it? It's been a while since I lit up and I gotta admit, I'm kind of jonesing for it right now. Gonzaga is seeded about right, honestly, but they've got a great draw. So many of their highly-seeded teams have flamed out, that is the reverse about to happen, a lower-seeded underachieving Zags team breaks through in March?
2 Florida over 15 UC Santa Barbara. Florida is a two?!?! Really?!?! Wow. I mean, I need whatever the committee was smoking. Not want, not desire, I need it. If only because then I can blame my usual insanity on something other than the fact that I'm, possibly, probably ... ok definitely, the clinical definition of insane.
10 UCLA over 7 Michigan State. State is a seven?!?! Hang on, let me spit out my Diet Coke here. No seriously. A team with 14 freaking losses is a seven?!?! A team that until Saturday was in the "last four in" grouping is a seven?!?! UCLA is grousely underseeded. It's criminitely bad. It's zues in nature. Let's move on, before I hit the not just banned from the booze, but I “gotta charm D’s mom to just get in the door” list at the reception.
Round of 32 Games:
8 Butler over 1 Pittsburgh. Screeeeeeeeech! That's the first car of the train careening off the tracks. Epically careening, like when my nephew decides to take Thomas the Train off the second bridge level in the train set he has. Doesn't end well for Thomas and friends. This game won't end well for Pitt. And we're just getting started in this region.
13 Belmont over 5 Kansas State. (jay bilas voice) This is a really, really good Belmont team. Since everything is either really, really good, or really, really awful in Jay Bilas' really, really entertaining world. ESPN Insider's ratings say Belmont, statistically, is the 17th best team in the country. KSU is super streaky, as we all know. They're capable of blowing out KU, they're capable of routing Texas in Austin ... and they're capable of losing not once, not twice, but three times in ten weeks to Colorado. Screeeeeeeeech! There goes Percy flying into the river at a very unsafe rate of speed! Poor Percy. He’s my favorite of Thomas’ friends. (And yes, for not having any kids (that I have been sued for support over), I know a frightening amount of Thomas the Train knowledge).
11 Gonzaga over 3 BYU. Screeeeeech! Good God, it’s worse than a slobberknocker! Oh, the carnage! The carnage! The only thing missing to take this to WWE scripted trainwreck of a match levels is if HHH's conveniently placed sledge hammer had caused the wreck. And incidentally, am I the only one who thinks Jimmer kinda looks like Screech? Well, except Jimmer can wear a wife-beater larger than size 4T and fill it out, but still, look at a photo of Jimmer from last weekend and grab a pic of Dustin Diamond back in the day. There is a resemblance. (See I told you I was insane. These picks are crying out "Charter! Two Rivers! County General!").
2 Florida over 10 UCLA. But I'm not sold on this pick at all. Florida is at least four seeds too high, and UCLA is at least a couple seeds too low. If Reeves Nelson catches fire from three land, the upset can happen. Still, not even I can project an 8, 13, 11, and 10 seeds as the regional. Even the A Man usually lets one or two train cars survive the epic accident. That, and at least one of the higher seeds will make it right? I mean, even in last year's Bracket Buster region, the two seed (Ohio State) made it to the second weekend before getting dumped.
Sweet Sixteen Contests:
13 Belmont over 8 Butler. Yes, I'm taking a 13 seed to the Elite Eight. For now anyways; I can absolutely see Butler winning this game. Everyone laughed at me last year for taking Butler to the Elite Eight, even at the expense of the Orange. Turns out I undersold them by a couple rounds. Wouldn't shock me if taking them "only" to the Sweet Sixteen undersells them by a couple rounds again. And believe me, when it comes to rounds, I don't undersell very often (rimshot!). (vice president biden voice) Chuck, Chuck stand up Chuck, let me see ya! Oh. God love ya, what am I talking about. I tell you what though, you're making an awful lot of people stand up though pal! Stand up for Chuck!
2 Florida over 11 Gonzaga. Another game I am zero percent confident in predicting. And with that out of the way, with the "Stand Up Chuck" joke in the previous pick, am I the only one fired up for the upcoming 2012 campaign? I mean, like the joke of a roster the Republicans are trotting out right now isn't frighteningly scary … I mean, funny enough, we're gonna get Joe Biden unleashed, unplugged, for eighteen straight months! If with just a week of prep last time, he managed to ask a quadrapalegic to stand up, imagine what he can do with prep time! I'm not sure of a whole lot of things, but of this I am sure: we all need more Joe Biden in our lives. (And a helluva lot less of his boss. Please Hillary, please. You're the only competent part of this administration. Please, for the love of your country, resign and run. Save us from Romney, save us from Gingrich, save us from Palin, please for the love of Christ above save us from Christie or Walker or Daniels! Please, please, please -- resign and run! I saw this coming three years ago. Hell, even Terri Schiavo could have told you what a f*cking joke Obama would be as President. Please, Hillary, you gotta resign and run before Barry destroys whatever last few of us are left in the political center that lean your direction. OK, that's it for the politics, back to the unfunny jokes and painfully wrong predictions).
Southeast Regional Final: 2 Florida over 13 Belmont. Seems like sleazy coaches are all the rage nowadays in college, why not have one of the sleaziest of the sleazy reach the Final Four for the third time in six years? (And the first time since he took the NBA cash grab, then decided "uuh, you know what, I want to come back, this NBA gig is too hard"). Florida 69, Belmont 55.
Southeast Regional Champion: The Florida Gators.
* Southwest Regional:
First Four Games:
11 VCU over 11 USC. Speaking of sleazy coaches, Kevin O'Neill everyone! He takes over an Arizona program that hasn't missed the tournament since I was in 1st grade (and yes, you read the bio at the top of this page correctly – I am 34, even if I look 16 … ok 17 … ok 32), and promptly finishes in seventh place in the Pac 10 and ends the tourney streak. He then somehow lands on his feet, is hired by USC ... and then gets into a drunken altercation with a former Arizona booster during last week's Pac 10 tourney. If you haven't seen the Deadspin story on this, the pics do it justice. Mr. O'Neill definitely was, in the words of J-Kwon, "gettin' tipsy!" VCU on the other hand, god bless it committee, thanks! You got one right! This is an entertaining as hell team that most wrote off because they lost four of their last seven. Uuh, tell me again why we screw quality mid-majors yet allow Georgetown in riding a four game losing streak, Villanova riding a five game losing streak (and nine of ten), and Illinois is in (more on them in a second) despite losing 12 of 16 to end the season? Love VCU in this spot.
Round of 64 Games:
1 Kansas over 16 Boston U. I actually tuned into some of Boston U's game Saturday against Stony Brook because I (correctly!) assumed KU might draw the winner. So let me say this about Boston U and KU's chances in this game. This ... is the Bill Mass Put the Helmet On Memorial Game of round one. And no, that is not a good thing for Jayhawk fans.
9 Illinois over 8 UNLV. What is this, former Illini coaches row? Lon Kruger gets first crack at his old school, and Bill Self would get a shot at them in round two. I can't believe I'm picking Bruce Weber to win a NCAA tournament game. But at some point, Demetri McCamey has to play to his potential, right? That, and UNLV is a solid team, but nothing to fear. The steady middle of the pack teams usually fold early in this tournament. On the bright side, any Illini fans reading this, how you like them apples? You go from Lou Hensen (decent coach, living legend) to Lon Kruger (rock solid coach) to Bill Self (more on Billy in a few paragraphs from now) ... to Bruce Weber, a man who I jokingly (yet accurately) note "couldn't outcoach a wet paper bag, let alone escape from one". On the bright side ... uuh ... hey, spring football's almost here. Who's ready to watch a Ron Zook coached team in action! Wow, Illini fans, I feel for you. It's probably time to march on the athletic department and take the keys away from whatever moron is posing as your AD.
4 Louisville over 13 Morehead State. This could be a highly entertaining first round game. It also could be a 95-60 blowout. I'd bet on the former rather than the latter, Morehead State is a pretty solid low-major. Plus, "Morehead State". Awesome. Where'd you go to school? Morehead! Imagine the pick-up and hopeful hook-up lines available to Morehead's undergraduate population! Damn, and here I thought telling potential prospects for an evening of fun that I was a "horny frog" was killer when I was in school. I'd have had nothing on Morehead student. (Again, trying to ensure this post is in the 43% non NC17 grouping. You can write your own Morehead jokes ... and they'll probably be way funnier than any I could type).
12 Richmond over 5 Vanderbilt. Poor Vandy, every year they draw the grousely under-seeded mid-major that makes their first opponent pay for it like Zues attacking a Beggin' Stirp. You’re right – I’m hitting the Dustyland well too often in this post. To be fair, Richmond is probably a 10, but the first four games probably pushed them down a line or two (VCU / USC winner has to play on Friday, and Richmond / Vandy is a Thursday game). Still, I like this Richmond team. They're gonna make some noies. I mean, noise.
3 Purdue over 14 St. Peter's. Don't know one damned thing about St. Peter's. Hopefully the real St. Peter ignores a sh*t ton of stuff about me someday. On the other hand, Purdue is one of two Big Ten (plus two) teams that don't make me want to vomit when I watch them play (along with Ohio State). So I'll pencil in the Boilermakers for a win. Which reminds me, and I forgot to mention this in the St. John's prediction -- how awesome is it to have the combover of Gene Keady back in our lives? Like last year with the Tom Penders horrendous fake tan and cheezy bleach blonde hair look, you forget some of the classics when they go away for a few years. Welcome back Coach Combover! You look as ridiculous as ever. And that's a great thing. We'll get to the other coach we need back in our lives in a few more paragraphs ...
11 VCU over 6 Georgetown. Even if Chris Wright plays, and all indications are he's gonna give it the old college try, do you really think a shooting guard coming off a broken wrist three weeks ago is going to make a positive difference in the outcome of a game? Didn't think so. VCU is sneaky good. They're one unlucky break (losing the CAA final) away from being in an 8/9 game. Plus, they're entertaining as hell to watch. I'll take the entertaining as hell team over the fading power six squad that hasn't won a game since before Libya was destabilized.
2 Notre Dame over 15 Akron. I know Akron is the Zips, and they're located in Ohio. (jose in south philly voice) Other than that, yo. I got nothing. Notre Dame is ridiculously overrated thanks to powering through a cream puff final four weeks (their Big East schedule was front-loaded). But they're not losing to the Zips. Whatever the hell a zip is.
7 Texas A&M over 10 Florida State. If Chris Singleton returns, and all indications are he's gonna give it the old college try, this will be a wildly entertaining opening game. I still like A&M whether he plays or not though, because (a) they're the better team, and (b) they're my Old Chick in "Gone With the Wind" screaming “Yankees in Georgia! How did they ever get here!!!” Memorial Team that somehow is still standing when the Elite Eight rolls around. (Like Baylor last year, Mizzou the year before, Davidson the year before that ...)
Round of 32 Games:
1 Kansas over 9 Illinois. Since nothing, and I mean absolutely nothing, indicates this game will even be remotely competitive, let me say, how incredible is Bill Self as a coach? Seven consecutive conference championships! Are you kidding me! And it's not like this is the pros, where you can keep the core of your team together for 7-10 years, making a run like that possible. KU lost three vital contributors last year -- Collins, Aldridge, and Henry -- and here they are again, still as a one seed, still as the conference champs. This guy is phenomenal. Can't sing his praises enough.
12 Richmond over 4 Louisville. Helluva job this year by Rick Pitino, who also took over a rebuild-on-the-fly team and has them back as a top four seed. But I really like this Spiders squad. Hopefully Rick can find a nice Italian restaurant with a willing waitress or two afterwards to deal with the defeat.
3 Purdue over 11 VCU. Could be a sneakily entertaining game. I'm telling you, VCU is entertaining as hell to watch play. Purdue ... well, they're not entertaining as hell. They're a Big Ten (plus two) team, none of them are anything even remotely approaching entertaining save for Ohio State. But Purdue is a solid team that should survive the first weekend.
7 Texas A&M over 2 Notre Dame. Here's the thing with Notre Dame, and Luke Winn pointed it out at si.com -- the key to everything they do is being allowed to move the ball around as they get into their offensive set. If you press them, if you play man defense, you can completely disrupt them and take them out of their rhythm. I'd argue that nobody plays better pressure man defense in the Big XII than Texas A&M, and they're amongst the best in the nation at it. This is set up perfectly for A&M. Mark Turgeon has sprung the huge upsets before -- he took Wichita State (a 7 seed) to the Sweet Sixteen a couple years ago. I say A&M does it.
Sweet Sixteen Contests:
1 Kansas over 12 Richmond. This potential game scares the hell out of me. Richmond is the exact type of team that knocks KU out every year -- a guard-fueled, upper-classman led team that isn't necessarily a power school, but definitely has deep tourney experience. It's been this way going back what, twenty years to UTEP and UCLA back in the early 90s? Look at who KU has lost to in the tourney recently, and you'll see why Richmond scares me -- 2010 Northern Iowa (that Farouk kid nailing every three he threw up), 2009 Michigan State (Kalin Lucas en fuego), 2007 UCLA (had no answer for Afflalo), 2006 Bradley (the one exception -- a senior led squad, but front-line dominated team), 2005 Bucknell, 2004 Georgia Tech (f*cking Jarrett Jack, rot in hell pal, rot in hell), 2003 Syracuse (has Gerry McNamara missed yet?), 2002 Maryland (Juan Effing Dixon), on and on and on. Even the title run in 2008, the two games KU really struggled in were Davidson (Stephen Curry) and Memphis (Derrick Rose and that shooting guard whose name escaped me, I think it was Washington). Let's hope KU survives and advances, no matter who they face in this spot.
7 Texas A&M over 3 Purdue. Holy God, if you thought the Penn State / Wisconsin thrilla on Friday night was a defensive slugfest, what is this one gonna be? First team to 25 wins?
West Regional Final: 1 Kansas over 7 Texas A&M. Continuing the "KU craps out against guard led veteran squads", the last team to win in Lawrence before UT did it a couple months ago? Yup, Acie Law's A&M team in 2007 that grabbed a three seed and fell one point short of reaching the Elite Eight. This is A&M's best team since that one, the last one Billy Gillispie led. (Speaking of "glad to see you're back" coaches, let's hope Billy lands at Texas Tech. Every conference needs one loveable lush walking the sidelines. We had three classics in this conference the last decade -- Larry Eustachy, Bob "Huggy Bear" Huggins, and Gillispie. And Quin’s a debatable inclusion, if you replace coke with booze (allegedly). We need Billy back in this conference. The Coach Switzer to Bill Self's Dr. Tom ... and Frank Martin's Terry Allen). Anyways, this would be an intriguing matchup. A&M played well in Lawrence two weeks ago. They'll have the crowd behind them (game would be in San Antonio). And as great as Coach Self has been, he's been, uuh, "shaky" at best in the Elite Eight in his career. (He's 1-2 at KU in that round, and was 0 for 2 prior to arriving at Kansas, losing in 2000 with Tulsa and 2001 with Illinois). Still, come on, I'm a homer. I can put Bob Davis to shame at times, I'm so big of a homer. I'm not picking KU to crap out this close to the Final Four. KU 74, A&M 73.
Southwest Regional Champion: The Kansas Jayhawks.
* The Final Four:
1 Duke over 1 Ohio State. At some point, a team with a quality collection of big men is going to decide "screw it", and start using their 20-25 fouls between them to batter Jared Sullinger into submission. And that team is Duke. Between the Plumlee brothers, Ryan Kelly, and assorted flotsam and jetsome riding the back of the bench, Duke has the depth to shut down Ohio State's inside game. And once that happens, look it, Jon Diebler is an incredible shooter, but do you really see him going 10 for 13 from three land defended by Kyle Singler? Look at what Singler did to Harrison Barnes yesterday, it was a freaking clinic in how to defend someone. Barnes was so rattled that by the time he started to use screens and blocks to shake Singler's man coverage, UNC was down 15 and the clock was fading fast. I love this matchup for Duke. Love it. Love it like a Dookie loves to (lil' wayne voice) lick it like a lollipop. OK, yeah, that one probably went a teeeeeeeeny bit too far. That NC17 rating is back on the table folks! Could be a photo finish. Devils 81, Buckeyes 76.
1 Kansas over 2 Florida. Total mismatch. Total mismatch. As our buddy Pickell would say, let me put it this way -- if Texas can't guard the Morris twins, and UT pretty much has the best collection of talent at the forward position in the country, especially defensively, if they looked like a Quin Snyder coached D-League team against the Morris twins, how the hell are the Gators stopping them? I honestly think, in many regards ... nah, I don't want to go there, because it's a horrifying thought. But -- KU's season turned in a positive way when they had to experience life without Thomas Robinson, both due to tragedy and then injury. It forced the action inside. Rather than relying on Selby jumpers and Robinson drives, it put the rock where it needed to be -- in the hands of the two kids on the team that can flat out win you the game. When Thomas Robinson is a luxury, you know you're good. This Kansas team is good. Scary good. National championship game appearance good. KU 87, Florida 76.
* The National Championship:
Kansas! Duke! I don't know much, but I do know this: there's a strong chance that if DJ and I watch this one together, one of us is going home via an ambulance. And I'm betting it will be me. (Kinda like how if I ever run into "deadbeat ex roommate", one of us is leaving the scene in a body bag. Again, I'd bet the family farm on me being in said bag, under the "nope, Steve's pic ain't next to the phrase physically fit" theory, but you can bet your sweet ass I'd get in a solid shot or three at him first).
This is my dream final matchup. Not because it favors KU -- it doesn't. See the Ohio State / Duke preview a couple paragraphs above for why it really doesn't. But because this would be a game for the ages.
The Morris twins against the Plumlee brothers. (First one to hit three straight free throws gets a complimentary lollipop! No wait, that rigs it towards the Dookies. OK, first one to hit the rim on three straight free throws ... damn! A simple rimshot, still probably favors the Dookies. OK, ok, I got it -- first one to draw iron on at least three straight foul shots, gets to stop having me scream "hit a f*cking free throw you mother f*cking f*ckstick!" at them. Seems like a safe bet to make -- none of the four of them can do it). Strength on strength inside. Duke probably has a slight edge with Ryan Kelly coming off the bench -- seriously, watching that kid this weekend, I was having frightening flashbacks to (dookie student section voice) ZOOOOOOOOOOO-bek last year, how he came out of nowhere to be a key contributor in the biggest moments.
A potential matchup of "which freshman sensation ruined his draft stock the most" of Kyrie Irving who -- call me stupid, call me crazy, but please, don't call me surely -- I think will play some in March, against Josh Selby, who's all but vanished from the box scores lately.
Nolan Smith against the four-headed monster of Brady Morningstar, Tyrel Reed, Elijah Johnson, and Tyshawn Taylor. One of the four will show up. Three of them won't. The scary ... excuse me, fun part is trying to figure out who's on that night as quickly as f*cking possible and plopping the other three as far away from the scorer's table as possible.
But the matchup of champions: Kyle Singler against Thomas Robinson. A complete contrast in styles offensively. But both are tougher than a two dollar steak at the Sizzler on defense. (Good God, that's ... that's Good Ol' JR's music! Yup, we're three weeks away from Wrestlemania Twenty Something! That is definitely a good thing. Especially if Good Ol' JR takes the mic for at least one match).
And coaching wise, yikes. I mean, this might be the single best coached title game in NCAA history, on paper. Well it's this, or that epic Mike Davis / Gary Williams showdown nine years ago. Hang on, let me channel my inner Dick Vitale here to do this justice. (dick vitale voice) Oh baby, what an incredible treat for the fans, Digger! You have the great one, Coach K, going for number nine zero four, the record, to topple the greatest, the General, Mr. Robert Montgomery Knight! And you have the up and comer, the guy most likely to challenge that number years from now, the awesome with a capital A, Bill Self! And Jay, these kids on the Devils, (vitale's head imploding from all the verbal fellating of dookie players starting ... now. Hopefully someone from the "First Family of Broadcasting" can replace him. Or at least be slightly less biased than Dick is).
(Which reminds me, and I specifically saved this rant for a Dookie section ... I thoroughly enjoyed watching the ACC Toonumunt this weekend. As much as I cannot stomach the biased commentary of Dick Vitale, it works for the ACC Toonumunt for me. Like sliding on the Birkenstocks for the first time in the summer -- it's an old friend you know and love being welcomed back into your life. Having said that ... every god d*mned time the camera spanned to the UNC bench yesterday (careful, don't jump to conclusions ...) and it picked up Ol' Roy standing next to the scorers table (again, don’t overthink, this ain't an anti-Roy thought ...) my love of that game, of that toonumunt, decreased by about 5%. Why? Because occupying the last spot on the front of media row, right next to the Tar Heels bench, was Billy "Fudge" Packer. I mean, even in retirement he's roo-eening the sport! Every damned time they showed Roy, or even showed the long lens view of the court, there he was, sitting there looking miserable. At least I think he looked miserable. He was certainly making me miserable. I easily, easily, consumed at least four more beers than I planned to yesterday because that thing was on my television screen. Come on ACC, do the right thing and boot Packer's ass to the parking lot. You can even let a Dookie SID do it, he might enjoy kicking a mean angry tight ass named Packer in the, uuh, ass. Or at least make him scalp a ticket to get in the door. He roo-eened the sport for thirty freaking years. Absolutely roo-eened it. It's time for someone to put a stop to it. OK, back to the prediction).
I anticipate it would be a fun game, a competitive contest, probably comes down to the last couple possessions and which of the free-throw challenged brothers from the same mother decides to win my bet from a few paragraphs ago.
So that at the end of the evening, when the final shot has gone up, when the final hand has been shaken, when the trophy has been presented, the most awesome, incredible, tear-inducing tradition in sports that doesn't involve Jim Nabors, Carol Brady, the Purdue Marching band and a sh*t ton of balloons will bring the night to a close, as "One Shining Moment" pays final tribute to the 2011 NCAA Men's champions.
And Coach and T-Rob are having a good hug and a good cry while clutching the whatever the hell you call it championship trophy, well, this time, I promise not to cry. I promise to not lose control.
KU 83, Duke 78. As the lovely (boy this is gonna take some getting used to) the lovely Mrs. Jones noted Saturday about the Rock Chalk comfort chant – “it’s a relief, a huge exhale”. Yup. We won’t need an epic comeback this time, no miraculous Mario Chalmers shots, and I promise I will not hit the floor, curl up in the fetal position, and sob uncontrollably for four minutes when regulation ends. Nope, just a hard-fought, outstanding game that comes down to the miraculous happening -- clutch meaningful Morris twin foul shooting, and ends with me simply standing and applauding the effort, and possibly giving a fist pump or three in appreciation.
(Oh who am I kidding -- of course I'm going to hit the floor, curl up in the fetal position, and cry me a river for a while. Rock Chalk Championship!!!)
No comments:
Post a Comment