“It’s just your jive talkin’ --
You’re tellin’ me lies!
Jive talkin’ --
You wear a disguise!
Jive talkin’ --
So misunderstood!
Yeah, jive talkin’ --
You’re really no good! …”
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Welcome, peoples and peepettes, to Stevo’s Site Numero Dos’ annual exercise in futility: my NFL Season Prognostications.
For those interested in last year’s craptacular guesses, here is the handy dandy link to those predictions.
For this year’s predictions post(s) … well, you’re gonna love this, or you’re gonna hate it. The choice -- as always -- is up to you.
Because I thought I’d steal an idea that Terez Paylor used in The Star’s football preview on Sunday -- use a movie I love to set the tone for the season. (Note: I believe Mr. Paylor stole this from Bill Simmons, but whatever. I’ve never claimed to have a problem with liars, thieves, or cheaters -- just chicken sh*t cowards.)
In case you aren’t familiar with me, my favorite movie of all time … has held that designation, since the first time I saw the unedited version * of it, pushing three decades ago. I wrote a paper in a Survey of Film class I took in college defending it as the greatest movie of all time. I’ve posted before why I love this movie so much ** . So, in yet another attempt to get those of you who have never seen it to give it a chance, the picks post(s) this year is using “Saturday Night Fever” as a framing device.
Hope you enjoy.
And profit -- as always -- by wagering against everything I predict will occur.
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(*: normally I don’t much mind an edited version of a movie. The differences aren’t that dramatic. But the edited version of “Fever” is a national disgrace. Don’t waste your time on it. You have to have the unedited version, to grasp the full impact of this cinematic masterpiece. (Pause). And yes, this is where I warn you up front, this post will not be PG friendly. Let’s just say, “Fever” is one of the most foul-mouthed scripts of all time.)
(**: six years ago, the scene referenced in the post was my favorite scene. Now, it’s second. The scene the movie should have ended on -- with Tony standing alone at the base of the bridge, as the events of the final night reach their climax (trying to not give too much away here) -- that’s now my favorite, because of the position it finally leaves Tony in. Yes, there’s a real life reason why I feel this way. Also, before you mock me for loving this movie this much, I remind you, “Fever” was the late, great Gene Siskel’s favorite movie of all time as well. In the words of the person I’ve always thought was the Tony Manero in my life: “deal with it!”)
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Part Uno was The Also Rans. The eight squads that I believe not only have no shot at the postseason … but no shot at finishing within two games of .500.
Part Dos: The Mediocres. (That would be this post). The eight squads that I believe will finish .500 (or close enough to it to qualify for the post).
Part Tres is The Fringe Contenders -- the eight squads that will contend for the four wildcard slots.
Part Quatro is The Champions -- your eight division winners.
And Part Cinco is The Playoffs -- how the postseason will play out.
(Pause).
You’re godd*mned right I’m padding the posting stats with this bad boy …
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24. Los Angeles “Super” Chargers.
Head Coach: Anthony Lynn (Power Poll Rank: 25).
Projected Record: 7-9-0, 4th AFC West.
(Joey) Hey, don’t you ever chew, Tony? Don’t you ever chew?
(Tony) Hey, when your mother dies, I’ll give you the job, alright?
The Chargers -- destined to be LA’s b*tch for the very foreseeable future. I’d feel sorry for the “Super” Chargers … only, they’re one of my team’s hated divisional rivals, so I really don’t.
I mean, where is the future here? Phyllis Rivers is two, maybe three years from retirement. There is no QB of the future on the roster. The roster as constructed is too good to bottom out (although if Anthony Lynn is as sh*tty of a coach as I project him to be, don’t count a bottoming out, out of the question). There’s no fan support. There’s no … nothing here, other than pure mediocrity.
Well, other than waiting for the Rams to stop being the squad LA wants to fellate with fan support. I’m betting that’ll never happen.
23. Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Head Coach: Dirk Koetter (Power Poll Rank: 24).
Projected Record: 7-9-0, 4th NFC South.
(Stephanie) I’m sick of guys who ain’t got their sh*t together!
(Tony) Well, all ya need is a salad bowl, and a potato masher, and ya got your sh*t together!
If Cincinnati is the AFC squad I wasn’t sure what to think about … Tampa is it for the NFC. If “Famous” Jameis puts it all together, this team can win 10-12 games, contend for the South, and put the fear of God into someone in the wildcard round, if not the divisional. But even if he can’t (and the bet here is, he won’t)? There’s still enough talent here to push .500 at least. It won’t be enough in the sneaky good division in football … but hey, if they were in the AFC South, they’d be contenders.
22. Miami Dolphins.
Head Coach: Adam Gase (Power Poll Rank: 17).
Projected Record: 7-9-0, 2nd AFC East.
(Tony) Why are you such a c*cktease?
(Stephanie) Don’t you call me no godd*mned c*cktease!
Jay Cutler everyone!
21. Washington Redskins.
Head Coach: Jay Gruden (Power Poll Rank: 22).
Projected Record: 7-9-0, T 3rd NFC East.
(Tony) Aw Jesus …
It’s Tony’s favorite quote in the movie (and hey, it’s one I use a lot too!), and damn if it don’t fit the Redskins. A head coach in over his head. A quarterback with one foot -- and arm -- out the door. An owner so classless and despised he’ll probably sue me for calling him classless and despised. But hey, Dan Snyder should be happy -- he’s now the second most inept administration inside the District! (kazoo voice) !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I have a friend that’s a Redskins fan. I cannot imagine the pain, the utter and total pain, that Will must feel, knowing every season is over before it begins. And I type that as a Chiefs fan.
On the bright side, we might get a protest or three at Arrowhead come October 2nd, when the ‘Skins and Chiefs square off on Monday Night Football. I’m always down to debate race baiters. Especially after I’ve had a twelve pack.
20. New York Giants.
Head Coach: Ben McAdoo (Power Poll Rank: 23).
Projected Record: 7-9-0, T 3rd NFC East.
(Bobby) My girlfriend? She likes the taste of communion wafers.
This team just feels … mediocre, doesn’t it? I mean, how many people think it makes sense than Eli Manning has as many Super Bowl wins as john elway? Or his brother? I love OBJ, but what else is there? This team just doesn’t do it for me.
Also, the schedule -- yeesh. I have the Giants opening 0-4, then spiraling to 1-6 before beginning to right the ship. (Note: the schedule run spreadsheets will appear in Part Quatro, with the projected division winners.)
Only a projected sweep of the Redskins keeps the Giants afloat in the East. And they will be afloat -- I have every team in the East within one game of each other in the final standings. Meaning a lot of football fans will be hitting up Mass the last two weeks of the season -- I have each NFC East team controlling its’ own destiny entering Week Sixteen.
19. Minnesota Vikings.
Head Coach: Mike Zimmer (Power Poll Rank: 16).
Projected Record: 8-8-0, 3rd NFC Norris.
(Tony) Hey! You assholes almost broke my p*ssy finger!
(Gus) Like you’d know which one that was!
Poor Minnesota. Is anybody capable of staying healthy up there? Teddy Bridgewater, down in practice on a non-contact play, career never to probably recover. Sam Bradford, can’t stay upright for more than six weeks at a time. Even the head coach had to miss time last year due to (al michaels voice) an eye, for crying out loud.
In case you can’t tell, we’re in a stretch of teams that I (a) really don’t give a sh*t about, and (b) don’t expect anything meaningful out of this season, so this portion of the picks post(s) may fly by.
You’re welcome?
18. Los Angeles Rams.
Head Coach: Sean McVay (Power Poll Rank: 21).
Projected Record: 8-8-0, 3rd NFC West.
(Stephanie) Nice move! Did you make that up?
(Tony) Yeah. Well, I saw it on TV first, then I made it up.
I actually have the Rams opening 4-1, and I don’t think 5-2 at the bye is out of the question (I have the Jaguars “upsetting” them in Jacksonville in Week Six). But given how the NFC played out in my schedule run, the difference between eight and nine wins? Still leaves you two wins short of a wild card berth.
17. Dallas Cowboys.
Head Coach: Jason Garrett (Power Poll Rank: 13).
Projected Record: 8-8-0, T 1st NFC East.
(Tony) Hey, you guys do layaway?
(Salesman) So long as it don’t turn into a twenty year mortgage.
(Tony) Alright, look, I wanna put five dollars down on the blue shirt in the window. Hold it for me.
(Salesman) Hey, wait for your receipt!
(Tony) I trust you.
(Salesman) Please, no -- don’t trust me.
Do you honestly trust this team? I mean, seriously -- do you honestly trust the Dallas Cowboys?
Do you trust Dak Prescott to repeat his rookie season? Do you trust Ezekiel Elliott to prevail (as he damned well should) on his appeal of his six game suspension? Do you trust Jason Garrett to outthink, outwit, and outmatch over half the coaches he’ll face this season?
Do you trust a team with no discernable home field advantage to go 6-2 at home, 4-4 on the road, and take the NFC East in back to back years for the first time since I was a sophomore in college, and lived in the Metroplex? (Note: that was (gulp) twenty one years ago.) Do you trust this team to make the playoffs in back to back seasons for the first time since Chan Gailey was in charge?
Do you trust Jerry Jones to stay the hell out of the way, and let his coaches coach, his players play, and his investment advisors laugh all the way to the bank?
If you do? Then I probably ranked these guys too low. And to be fair and honest, there are only three teams in my projections that tied for a playoff berth, and missed out -- two potential wild card teams in the AFC, and the Cowboys.
But I don’t trust this team. The schedule is far harder this year. (As noted in the two previous NFC East sections above, I have every NFC East team entering Week Sixteen controlling its’ own destiny … but also all already eliminated from wild card contention. It’s division or bust.) And in the Cowboys case? It came down to Week Seventeen -- Dallas at Philly. Winner in, loser out.
We’ve seen this before with the Cowboys -- at least three times over the last five years. They’re oh for three. I’m guessing it’s gonna be oh for four, when 2017 is finished playing out.
Next up? Part Tres. The Fringe Contenders. The eight squads that the four wild card squads will come from ...
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