“Girl? I’ve known you very well --
I’ve seen you growing every day.
I never really looked before,
But now? You take my breath away.
Suddenly, you’re in my life --
A part of everything I do!
You’ve got me working day and night,
Just trying to keep a hold on things.
Here in your arms?
I’ve found my paradise!
My only chance?
For happiness!
And if I lose you now?
I think I would die!
Oh say you’ll always be my baby --
We can make it shine,
If we take forever?
Just a minute at a time!
More than a woman!
More than a woman to me!
More than a woman!
More than a woman to me! …”
-- “More Than a Woman” by The Bee Gees. Sorry, but the Tavares version (which was the one released as a single) is just beyond sh*t folks. Just beyond garbage …
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Welcome, peoples and peepettes, to Stevo’s Site Numero Dos’ annual exercise in futility: my NFL Season Prognostications.
For those interested in last year’s craptacular guesses, here is the handy dandy link to those predictions.
For this year’s predictions post(s) … well, you’re gonna love this, or you’re gonna hate it. The choice -- as always -- is up to you.
Because I thought I’d steal an idea that Terez Paylor used in The Star’s football preview on Sunday -- use a movie I love to set the tone for the season. (Note: I believe Mr. Paylor stole this from Bill Simmons, but whatever. I’ve never claimed to have a problem with liars, thieves, or cheaters -- just chicken sh*t cowards.)
In case you aren’t familiar with me, my favorite movie of all time … has held that designation, since the first time I saw the unedited version * of it, pushing three decades ago. I wrote a paper in a Survey of Film class I took in college defending it as the greatest movie of all time. I’ve posted before why I love this movie so much ** . So, in yet another attempt to get those of you who have never seen it to give it a chance, the picks post(s) this year is using “Saturday Night Fever” as a framing device.
Hope you enjoy.
And profit -- as always -- by wagering against everything I predict will occur.
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(*: normally I don’t much mind an edited version of a movie. The differences aren’t that dramatic. But the edited version of “Fever” is a national disgrace. Don’t waste your time on it. You have to have the unedited version, to grasp the full impact of this cinematic masterpiece. (Pause). And yes, this is where I warn you up front, this post will not be PG friendly. Let’s just say, “Fever” is one of the most foul-mouthed scripts of all time.)
(**: six years ago, the scene referenced in the post was my favorite scene. Now, it’s second. The scene the movie should have ended on -- with Tony standing alone at the base of the bridge, as the events of the final night reach their climax (trying to not give too much away here) -- that’s now my favorite, because of the position it finally leaves Tony in. Yes, there’s a real life reason why I feel this way. Also, before you mock me for loving this movie this much, I remind you, “Fever” was the late, great Gene Siskel’s favorite movie of all time as well. In the words of the person I’ve always thought was the Tony Manero in my life: “deal with it!”)
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Part Uno was The Also Rans. The eight squads that I believe not only have no shot at the postseason … but no shot at finishing within two games of .500.
Part Dos was The Mediocres. The eight squads that I believe will finish .500 (or close enough to it to qualify for the post).
Part Tres: The Fringe Contenders. (That would be this post.) The eight squads that will contend for the four wildcard slots.
Part Quatro is The Champions -- your eight division winners.
And Part Cinco is The Playoffs -- how the postseason will play out.
(Pause).
You’re godd*mned right I’m padding the posting stats with this bad boy …
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16. New Orleans Saints.
Head Coach: Sean Payton (Power Poll Rank: 11).
Projected Record: 9-7-0, 3rd NFC South.
(Tony) You make it with some of these chicks? They think they get to dance with ya!
Of course “Fever” has the sequence backwards -- you f*ck a girl before you dance with her. (Or, as I’d argue, they’ve got it exactly right! #morallybankrupt) The Saints seem to have the sequence backwards too, in that there’s no balance. They can drop 50 on anyone. They also can give up 50 to anyone.
They have a brutal open to the season -- I have them at 1-3 at the bye, and I don’t think 0-4 is out of the question. Three of four on the road, and the only home game is the defending champs. Yikes. I’d ask who the Saints p*ssed off in the league office, but I’ll take Bountygate for 600, Alex, as the answer to that one.
I think the Saints will be better than most people anticipate. I just think an 0-3 / 0-4 start is going to bury them before they hit the stretch where they can bank some wins and climb back into contention. Their margin for error entering December will be zero, and that is what will kill them.
Key Game: Week Fourteen at Falcons. Winner makes the playoffs. Loser sits out.
15. Tennessee Titans.
Head Coach: Mike Mularkey (Power Poll Rank: 30).
Projected Record: 9-7-0, 2nd AFC South.
(Stephanie) I didn’t know how to do stuff, and he’d show me what to do. Then I’d go back to work, and everything would be alright. Otherwise, I’d be walking around like an idiot, going “I don’t know!” “I don’t know!”
Folks, if that comment does not completely and totally sum up Mike Mularkey and Marcus Mariota, I don’t know what could.
I have a couple great friends -- Andrew and Nicole -- that are Titans fans. (They’ll be here Thursday for the preseason game. They also had a bigger pair than me, and sat through that negative nine at kickoff debacle last December, as I stayed home under a comforter.) Even they agree Mike Mularkey is a moron that will likely (stewie griffin voice) roo-een Mr. Mariota’s promising young career.
The Titans cannot waste a talent like Mariota with a moron like Mularkey. They just can’t. I have the Titans missing the last AFC wild card on tiebreakers due to strength of victory. (Yes, the AFC three way clusterf*ck at 9-7 required me to calculate strength of victory. Sweet Jesus.)
Key Game: damned if I know. I have the Titans missing the playoffs in a three way clusterf*ck at 9-7 due to Strength of Victory tiebreaker. (Yes, I calculated down that far.) So I’ll say Week Twelve, at Colts. The projected upset Colts win not only cost Tennessee a wild card, it cost them the division.
14. Baltimore Ravens.
Head Coach: John Harbaugh (Power Poll Rank: 9).
Projected Record: 9-7-0, 2nd AFC Norris.
(Tony, to his dad) I knew you’d p*ss on it! Go on! Just p*ss on it, alright? A raise says, like, you’re good, you know? You know how many times someone told me I was good in my life? Two! Twice! Two f*cking times! This raise today, and dancing at the disco!
(Turns to leave room)
(Tony, to his dad) You sure as f*ck never did! Asshole!
Joe Flacco. Enough said.
Key Game: Week Nine, at Titans. Cost the Ravens a free and clear berth as the AFC’s sixth seed, and dropped them into a clusterf*ck of tiebreakers at 9-7 they couldn’t win.
13. Green Bay Packers.
Head Coach: Mike McCarthy (Power Poll Rank: 10).
Projected Record: 10-6-0, 2nd NFC Norris.
(Girl) Kiss me!
(Tony) (Ignores her).
(Girl) KISS ME!
(Tony) (Gives in).
(Girl) Ooh! I just kissed Al Pacino!
How often you wanna bet Jordan Rodgers at least tries to pass himself off as the successful brother in the family, at whatever hookup club he sleazes his way into on a typical Tuesday?
Key Game: Week Seventeen, at Detroit. Winner wins the NFC Norris. Also, Week Two at Atlanta didn’t help things for the Packers either. Win either of those two contests, and they’re goin’ streakin’! I mean, going to the playoffs. Win both? And the NFC is coming to Lambeau throughout the month of January.
And now … your four wild card participants.
12. “those people”.
Head Coach: vance joseph (Power Poll Rank: 27).
Projected Record: 9-7-0, 3rd AFC West.
(Tony) Are you a nice girl, or a c*nt?
(Annette) Can’t I be both?
(Tony) No. It’s a decision a girl’s gotta make early in life, if she’s gonna be a nice girl, or be a c*nt.
And now, we reach the portion of these prepared remarks where I have to deal with the team I hate more than any other in life -- “those people”. A team I despise so much, I won’t even mention them by name, or location.
And for the record -- I’ve yet to meet even one fan of this evil, vile franchise, that didn’t look at the road Tony laid out -- nice girl or c*nt -- and choose to become a c*nt.
Key Game: Week Seventeen, vs Chiefs. Win and those people are in. You can guess what I predict. Also, I have denver opening 5-0, opening 7-0 at home … and needing a Week Seventeen victory to sneak in via Strength of Victory tiebreaker over Tennessee. Let’s just say, I’m not sold on this pick. At all.
Again, “nice girls”? Not a chance in hell, you people. Not a chance in hell ANY of you people are “nice girls”.
11. Atlanta “Shane” Falcons.
Head Coach: Dan Quinn (Power Poll Rank: 8).
Projected Record: 11-5-0, T 1st NFC South.
(Annette) You wanna dream girl? Well then go to sleep and have a f*cking nightmare!
Don’t read too much into Atlanta being the “last team in” in the NFC. It’s much more a reality of Carolina avoiding Seattle and Dallas, than Atlanta struggling.
Key Game: Week Three, at Lions. Had the Falcons won this contest, they’d have been the top seed in the NFC.
10. Arizona “Super” Cardinals.
Head Coach: Bruce Arians (Power Poll Rank: 7).
Projected Record: 11-5-0, 2nd NFC West.
(Sleazy DJ) I love the polyester look, man!
This team just feels … weird, doesn’t it? I’m not quite sure what to think of the “Super” Cardinals. They’re good enough to win the division. They’re also scatter brained enough to crash and burn to 5-11. If this is this group’s last gasp, I’m wagering on them having one last decent run in them, at least to the wild card round.
Key Game: Week Seventeen, at Seahawks. Winner won the NFC West and potentially home field advantage throughout the playoffs; loser took a wild card berth.
9. oakland raiders.
Head Coach: Jack “Of The River” Del Rio (Power Poll Rank: 6).
Projected Record: 10-6-0, 2nd AFC West.
(Bobby) I have a friend. I have a very good friend, and he got a girl pregnant. And I wanted to know -- if you had to make a choice between getting an abortion and having to get married, what would you do?
(Stephanie) Well, who would I have to marry?
(Bobby) You’d have to marry me.
(Stephanie) I’d choose to get an abortion.
Somehow? That’s not even the cruelest thing done to Bobby by his “friends” in this film. It’s not even close, if I’m being honest. But I mean, holy God, that is brutal. That is just BRUTAL. “Yeah dude, you suck so bad, I’d kill your kid rather than be with you again.” BRUTAL.
Also brutal? Has to be dealing with raider nation. I mean, I won’t stoop to calling them the c-word, because that’s reserved for “those people” and (especially) their fans. But man, are raider fans really that much better? I mean, they’re all out on weekend furloughs. They all arrived at your tailgate on a bike they stole from your kid. And no doubt, they charged their crappy Bud Light on your MasterCard or Visa or AmEx. (Pause). Definitely AmEx -- no raider fan will ever qualify for approval from those fine folks.
Let’s just move on -- I get to deal with twenty plus of them, twice a year. (Note: I love my raider nation friends to death … 363 days a year. Twice a year? It’s a struggle. To be fair, I guarantee you the inverse is true, from their perspective.)
Key Game: Week Seventeen, at “Super” Chargers. Had the raiders won it, it would have thrown the AFC West -- as well as the two, three, and five seeds -- into absolute chaos. I chose to give the “Super” Chargers the upset to save me yet another “wait, how do you calculate Strength of Victory again” headache.
Next Up? Part Quatro. The Champions. Your eight division winners, as well as the spreadsheets showing each team’s schedule run, division by division ...
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