And by the way?
I made it through the day.
I watched the world outside;
And by the way?
I'm leaving out today.
I just saw Haley's comet;
She waved, and said
Why're you always running in place?
Even the man in the moon
Disappeared?
Somewhere in the stratosphere!
Tell my mother!
Tell my father!
That I've done the best I can
To make them realize --
This is my life!
I hope they understand!
I'm not angry.
I'm just saying?
Sometimes goodbye is a second chance ...
-- "Second Chance" by Shinedown.
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Not many status updates to report today ... namely, none.
I had to work late, so I missed the Seven Foot Mahomes Bobblehead at the JC Nichols Fountain. (Dammit.)
But, if you have a few spare dollars, someone I've bought a lot of Chiefs artwork off of, Chris Sembower, is this week's artist for the GameDay poster the Chiefs are selling, and it is spectacular:
If you've got a few spare bucks (namely, about thirty of them), feel free to send some his way, via the Chiefs Team Store.
And now, today's post: a look at "Fat" Andy Reid's rebounds, his second chances.
Which, on fifth glance?
Aren't as bad as the first four glances, made them look to me ...
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2013:
We're not off to a great start here. "Fat" Andy only won one rematch out of four, and it was against the lowly oakland raiders. Having said that ... the Chiefs had nothing to play for in Week Sixteen (vs Colts) or Week Seventeen (at "Super" Chargers), as those people had already clinched the division, and the "battle" for the six seed was so ugly the Chiefs were locked into the five seed in Week Fifteen. So losing the first round to Indy, and the rematch to the "Super" Chargers doesn't bother me at all. "Fat" Andy played those games right: you try to win, but play the backups and rest up for the game that counts.
But oh brother, that game that counted. Blowing a four touchdown second half lead. Suffering the second worst collapse in postseason history. (Only the Oilers blowing a thirty two point lead at Buffalo in the 1992 Wild Card Round is greater ... or worse, depending on your perspective.)
So through one season, "Fat" Andy is 1-3-0 in the first matchup, and 1-3-0 in the second, for a total of 2-6-0 in games that count as series. That ... to channel, well, me, back in the day: (stevo in college voice) that's no bueno.
2014:
The only series in 2014 were against the division, and although there was no way to know this five years ago ... this is the last time "Fat" Andy failed to win at least five divisional games (out of six) in a season. Truly, "Fat" Andy dominance over the AFC West is nothing short of incredible -- he started 5-7 against the division ... and has gone 27-3 since, for a total of 32-10 in seven seasons. When you're guaranteed five divisional wins? You not only will hold every tiebreaker, but you simply have to go 5-5 against the rest of the schedule, to get at least a wild card berth in all likelihood, and 7-3 against the rest of the schedule all but guarantees you the division and a bye. (This season, the Chiefs went 6-0 against the division, and 6-4 against everyone else ... to get to 12-4 and a bye, for the third time in four years. The only non-bye year? They did exactly what I said two sentences ago: went 5-1 against the division, and 5-5 against everyone else, to win the West at 10-6. Winning in the division is so f*cking important in the NFL, it cannot possibly be understated.)
The Week Twelve loss at oakland in 2014 is arguably the most crushing regular season defeat of the "Fat" Andy Reid era. (And by "arguably", I mean "unquestionably".) The loss not only gave the 0-10 raiders a victory, not only cost the Chiefs a wild card berth (although the Week One loss to a god awful Titans team, and the Week Sixteen loss in Pittsburgh, didn't help either), but after undergoing some X-Rays, Chiefs S Eric Berry was diagnosed with cancer in the aftermath of that debacle of a defeat. Just a total disaster of a game, that let to a total disaster of a finish (closing 2-4 after opening 7-3).
Through two seasons, "Fat" Andy is 2-5-0 in the first matchup, and 3-4-0 in the second, for a total of 5-9-0 in series. That's still (stevo in college voice) no bueno.
2015:
Now we're talking! The only defeat in the 2015 series matchups was the epic collapse in Week Two, when the Chiefs blew a seven point lead with three minutes to play to those people. (Note: this is the only other regular season game I'd consider as the worst of the "Fat" Andy Reid era. More for off the field sh*t than on it ... and given that collapse, that's saying something.) Every other game resulted in victory, including the game all of us hoped and prayed would end satan manning's career in Week Ten. (Sadly, it did not.)
Also, don't forget how tough those last three rematches were. The "Super" Chargers game was played in below freezing temperatures with a windchill well below zero. (Trust me: I was there. It was insanely cold.) The raiders went .500 that season, building towards their "breakthrough" in 2016, and were in the thick of the wild card race well into December. (The first matchup in oakland was between two 6-5 teams.) And whatever one may think of your 2015 Houston Texans (namely, they might be the worst division winner of the last five years), they still won the division, and the Chiefs hadn't won a playoff game anywhere in twenty two years when they stepped onto the field at NRG Reliant exactly five years ago today. Nothing was a given. The Chiefs earned everything they achieved that season.
Through three seasons, "Fat" Andy is now 5-6-0 in the first matchup, and 7-4-0 in the second, for a total of 12-10-0 in series matchups. That's better.
2016:
Six and oh against the division! Awesome.
Oh and two against the Steelers. One a complete "bend over, assume the position, and take it without the lube" ass-raping, the other a home playoff defeat without allowing a touchdown. Good Lord. What a missed opportunity 2016 was.
Through four seasons, "Fat" Andy is now 8-7-0 in the first matchup, and 10-5-0 in the second, for a total of 18-12-0 in series matchups. 60% ain't bad. It beats the 33% "Fat" Andy stood at, after season uno.
2017:
One of only two seasons (2014) that featured only divisional rematches. And frankly, when your only loss in the series matchups is because the raiders got not one, not two, not three, not four, not five, not six, not seven, not eight, but nine -- NINE! -- f*cking tries from the goalline inside of ten seconds to play? I'm not going to complain about the defeat. I didn't then * , and I won't now.
Also, although some of us suspected it at the time ... that Week Seventeen win in the eighth layer of hell itself, will someday be looked upon as the moment the Chiefs fates changed forever. I know I'm right on this. And yes, it gives me sick, sadistic pleasure to know that the moment those people went from the benchmark to the used port-a-potty toilet paper of the division, occurred because of Patrick Mahomes "Of The Chiefs".
Through five seasons, "Fat" Andy is now 10-8-0 in the first matchup, and 13-5-0 in the second, for a series record of 23-13-0.
(*: this is an abject lie. I still complain about the "officiating" by Craig Wrolstad and his crew, in that game. And yes, the fact I know who officiated a random regular season three years ago frightens the hell out of me too.)
2018:
Hang on, let me check something.
(stevo looking back at his spreadsheet data ...)
Holy sh*t, Batman! 2018 is the ONLY season so far in which "Fat" Andy won the first matchup against a foe, and lost the second! (emf voice) That's unbelievable!
Of course, the two defeats to the Patriots stand out ... but given where both games stood at the half (9-24 in Foxboro, 0-14 at Arrowhead)? To lose on a field goal as time expired, and then in overtime (after having the game won, f*cking Dee Ford), I can almost live with it.
(Well, I can live with the first outcome. 2019 is all about one thing: erasing the shame, of the second one.)
Through six seasons, this puts "Fat" Andy at 13-9-0 in the first matchup, and 15-7-0 in the second, for a total of 28-16-0 in the series matchups, entering ...
2019:
And so, here we are. For the third time in four seasons, "Fat" Andy swept the division. And frankly, he didn't just "sweep" it, he dominated it. Winning by twenty four in fake mile high. Closing out the Real Black Hole by eighteen. Beating the "Super" Chargers comfortably enough in Mexico. And winning the three divisional home games by a total of fifty one points -- all by at least ten, and all save for the game against those people, by MORE than the Chiefs won the first matchup.
(And let's be fair here: winning by "only" twenty instead of twenty four, is not something to be upset about. Because we got to play in this!
So much fun! Image credit: me, via my iPhone X something.)
So entering Sunday, "Fat" Andy is 16-10-0 in the first matchup, and 18-7-0 in the second, for a total (again, entering Sunday) of 34-17-0 in series matchups, during his seven seasons here in Kansas City.
That ... well, as Vice President Biden noted in his 2008 Acceptance Speech ** : "Since I have never been called a man of few words". Neither have I sir.
But "Fat" Andy's rematch record?
Has left me speechless.
And no, I'm not referencing the highly underrated political comedy starring Geena Davis, Michael Keaton, Ernie Hudson, Bonnie Bedelia (God, I miss "Parenthood") ... and the late, great Christopher Reeve, when I type "Speechless" ...
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(**: I irrationally love that man. I always will. And I will never make any apologies for it. Even if I'm #teampete at this point. And holy hell, we're less than four weeks away from #campaign2020! This ... is going to be awesome! Right down to a brokered convention that HRC will probably steal in Milwaukee in seven months! Love it, hate it, loathe it, despise it, vote for it, vote against it, vomit at the thought of doing either of those things -- the 2020 Democratic nomination process is going to be one epic dog / pony / puppy / rubber chicken show!)
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And so, here we are. Less than seventy hours out from one of the most anticipated playoff games I can remember. In the span of seventy hours here in Kansas City, our forecast has gone from mid-40s and sunny to below freezing with ice and six to ten inches of snow on the ground *** . We're going to have a playoff game featuring two quarterbacks who rarely if ever have seen snow prior to their arrival in the National ... Football League, let alone played in it. (Patrick Mahomes "Of The Chiefs" is 2-0 in the snow, beating the Colts in last year's Divisional Round, and those people four weeks ago. I have no idea if Deshaun Watson has ever played in the snow ... but I would bet he hasn't.)
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(***: my favorite Tweet of today was from some dude (I think) from WGN in Chicago, who lamented that the NFL can't flip the Saturday and Sunday games, because if they could, we'd have snow games in both Kansas City and Green Bay. I couldn't agree more. If it's going to be miserably cold? At least let it snow! Because NOTHING sucks more than sunny, (somewhat) cloudless skies when it's negative thirteen out!)
Doubt me? Patriots at Chiefs, January 20, 2019:
So cold the godd*mned concrete is frozen.
Or Colts at Chiefs, January 12, 2019:
Yeah. Cold is always better when it's snowing. Image credit(s): me, via my iPhone X something.)
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Sunday's game is a rubber match for the Chiefs. As noted in the long-winded post above, "Fat" Andy is reasonably good at winning the second matchup, winning nearly 75% of them. (He's 18/25, or 72% entering Sunday ... and would rise to 19/26, or 73%, with a win. Or fall to 18/26, or 69%, with a loss. That's ... that's not a big move either way, actually.)
As also noted in the clipped spreadsheet above, the Chiefs are guaranteed, with a win, another rubber match -- either they will host the Titans (who beat the Chiefs in Nashville) or visit the Ravens (who we beat at Arrowhead).
And should the Chiefs emerge victorious from these next two -- versus Houston and TBD? They've got a 50/50 shot at a third rematch against either the Packers (who won at Arrowhead) or the Vikings (who lost at Arrowhead) ... or face a team they have played within the last sixteen months: the 49ers (who lost at Arrowhead) or Seahawks (who won at Century Link).
This league's teams are getting so cozy with each other, we might have to contemplate incest charges, by the time 2022 arrives.
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I entered this exercise worried about what the "series matchups" numbers would look like, especially after seeing the 2013 and 2014 results.
I emerge from it strangely and quietly confident about what is about to happen.
Because while there may be lies, damned lies, and statisticals?
#FactsDontLie
And the facts are this:
* "Fat" Andy is 18-3 after a bye in the regular season (5-2 in Kansas City).
* He is a more remarkable 5-1 in the postseason after a bye (1-1 in Kansas City).
6-3 in KC with an extra week to prepare. 18-7 in his second chance at an opponent in the same season, here in Kansas City, with Sunday (and hopefully next week) to pad the record even better.
I'll take my chances on Sunday. Because the odds are? The second chance is going to pay off.
May the goodbye from Philadelphia ... mean the greatest decision ever, regarding the second chance "Fat" Andy Reid has in front of him. Please, let this happen.
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Until tomorrow, once again:
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