About the places I'd like to see.
I say friend, do you think I'll ever get there?
Oh, but he just stands there, staring back at me.
So I confessed my sins to the preacher,
About the love I've been praying to find.
Is there a brown eyed boy in my future?
He said girl? You've got nothing but time.
But how do you wait for heaven?
And who has that much time?
And how do you keep your feet on the ground,
When you know? You were born to fly!!! ..."
-- "Born to Fly" by Sara Evans.
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Less than sixty hours until the gates open, kids! Less than sixty hours until the greatest party this city has ever thrown officially gets underway!
(For some of us, it starts about 3pm tomorrow ... or as soon as I can get the f*ck out of the office. Whichever comes first.)
With that being noted, here are ...
Your Thursday Night Updates (yay?):
* Andrew and Brock get in about 1am tonight / tomorrow morning. Probably the smart decision. Tomorrow looks miserable here in Kansas City -- snow to sleet to rain. At least that means the temperature will steadily rise, right? Anyways, if you see two Titans fans at our tailgate Sunday, have pity and mercy on them. They have no idea what is about to happen to their team. No f*cking clue.
* On the bright side, they're getting in early enough to see Crown Center and Union Station in its glory. And trust me folks, both are beyond gorgeous right now. I sat in the lobby of Crown Center today looking out at the fountains, looking out at the ice terrace, looking out at the red everywhere, and I couldn't help but have a goofy-ass sh*t eating grin on my face, it made me so happy. (That, or d'Bronx's grilled turkey and caesar salad is even better than I remember ... and considering I eat that at least 3-4 times a month, I'm guessing it's the red and gold everywhere, causing said goofy-ass sh*t eating grin to break out on my face like a crappy case of acne.)
* No update to the menu. I think it's about finalized. Titan Meltdowns (aka Philly Cheesesteaks), plus some Gates, assorted side dishes, plenty of adult liquid refreshment, and ... well, let's not get ahead of ourselves here, for any postgame plans.
* The Bus is loaded with all the non-food items! This actually was amongst the funny moments from Sunday, when Mona noted "you know, we've been doing this for thirty years, and I just figured out, it's easier to load the coolers when they're empty, then add the beer and ice as the week goes along, instead of loading everything in the garage and lugging it out there". Who knew? (Not us.)
* The Bus is leaving at 5:30am Sunday. And frankly, I think that's later than I would have voted for. Look it, nobody is gonna sleep Saturday night (at least restfully). I think all of Arrowhead Nation is going to show up early for this one
* The current updated forecast is 22 and partly sunny at kickoff, with winds out of the west at 10-12 mph. (So figuring a wind chill of what, 15?) Considering it was 19 with a wind chill of zero at kickoff last year (and only got worse from there), I can live with that. Also, the west wind helps -- The Bus will block it for tailgating, and it'll be at my back during the game. And double also ...
* I made the decision last year to attend that game stone cold sober. I wanted to remember every moment of it. Sadly, I do. I'm not making that mistake this year. I bought the pint of Jack, and Jack Fireball, for the game, tonight, and I will be enjoying a libation or sixteen during tailgating.
* And after the game -- win or lose -- we're closing down the Daily Double. That's a given.
Anyways, on to the other portion of today's post you probably don't give a sh*t about: a look at how each seed has done, in a Conference Championship Game, over the last thirty years ...
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"Inside The Numbers": The Conference Title Game.
So ... I was curious, as to how each seed has fared in a conference championship game, since the playoffs expanded from five to six teams per conference in 1990. If you think my curiosity is due to the fact that the two seeded Chiefs are playing the six seeded Titans, a mismatch via the "numbers", well, then you know me too well.
So let's deep dive ... although not too deep ... "Inside the Numbers".
First, here are your Title Game Matchups, dating back to 1990:
Ooh. That looks colorful and intimidating at the same time, doesn't it? One thing that surprised me: twenty nine of the thirty two teams have made at least one title game appearance in the modern era. The only three that haven't? Sorry Ohio, you've got two of the three. Yup, only the Bengals, Browns, and Texans, have failed to reach a title game in the last thirty years. Although to be fair, neither the Browns nor Texans existed for all thirty of the past seasons, but still. When even the Detroit Lions can claim a Title Game berth in the modern playoff era, that's ... (stevo in college voice) that's no bueno, Browns, Bengals and Texans.
Anyways, let's start drilling down, beginning with The One Seeds:
Home Wins: 30.
Road Wins: Not Applicable.
Home Losses: 13.
Road Losses: Not Applicable.
Years Not Reaching Title Game: 2008, 2010.
Quirky Statistical: prior to 2018, One Seeds had won nine straight title games, dating back to 2012, and fifteen of the last sixteen, dating back to 2004.
In 2018, both one seeds lost in overtime.
Thoughts / Analysis: you're a one seed for a reason, and usually that reason is, you're the best regular season team in your conference. Every so often you get a "are they really the best?" scenario like this year in the NFC, where not one, not two, not three, but (mike gundy voice) four! teams entered Week Seventeen still able to capture the top seed ... and the one that did, needed a fourth and goal miracle stop at the half inch line, to take it.
Also, this is the second straight season both one seeds have reached the Title Game. That hadn't happened since the opening years of the 2010's.
Next up, where our Chiefs check in this year, The Two Seeds:
Home Wins: 5.
Road Wins: 12.
Home Losses: 8.
Road Losses: 18.
Years Not Reaching Title Game: 2003.
Quirky Statistical: not only do two seeds have a losing record (13-30) that is the exact inverse of the one seed's record ... but the two seeds winning percentage (30.23%) is worse than the winning percentage of the four and the six seeds. (See -- there's lies, damned lies, and statisticals! Because the four and six seeds combined, have played only one more game (14), than the two seeds have won (13).)
Thoughts / Analysis: that of 60 total matchups (counting 2019), the two seed has only hosted fourteen of them! I expected that total to be in the twenties, to be honest with you. It also tells you, based on forty three berths in the title game (out of 120), that the playoffs tend to go chalk far more than you would think -- the one and two seeds account for 86/120 spots (71.66%). I guarantee you, if you go back thirty years of the NCAA tournament, the one and two seeds don't account for 71.66% of the 120 Final Four berths earned in that time span.
And continuing in sequential order, The Three Seeds:
Home Wins: 1.
Road Wins: 1.
Home Losses: Not Applicable.
Road Losses: 7.
Years Not Reaching Title Game: 1990, 1991, 1992, 1994, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2002, 2004, 2005, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2018, 2019.
Quirky Statistical: the only three seed to ever host a Title Game? Was arguably one of the greatest NFL games of my lifetime -- the 2006 Indianapolis Colts 38, the 2006 New England Patriots 34, via a twenty plus second half comeback.
Thoughts / Analysis: I'm not surprised to see only nine Title Game appearances by a three seed. Nor am I surprised to see the three seed is 1-7 on the road. (The only one to win? The 2003 Carolina Panthers, who destroyed "Fat" Andy's Eagles in Philly. Although the 2017 Jacksonville Jaguars came about as damned close as you can to victory, without attaining it.) Really, the three seed is the only outcome that didn't surprise me in virtually any way, shape or form. Because getting through both the Wild Card and Divisional Round, is extremely tough.
Next up? You guessed it -- Frank Stallone! Nah, just kidding. The Four Seeds:
Home Wins: 1.
Road Wins: 6.
Home Losses: Not Applicable.
Road Losses: 2.
Years Not Reaching Title Game: 1990, 1991, 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1998, 2001, 2002, 2004, 2005, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2018, 2019.
Quirky Statistical: The four seed has the highest victory percentage (77.77%) of any seed in the playoffs. Also, the only four seed to win at home (your 2008 Arizona Cardinals), featured the only four versus six matchup, in the history of, uuh, Title Game history. (The six seed? You guessed it -- "Fat" Andy's Philadelphia Eagles.)
Thoughts / Analysis: this actually makes some sense to me. Kind of like how the 12 seed is good for an upset or three every year over the 5 in the NCAA tourney. The four seed has always been guaranteed a home game to open, whether as a wild card (1990-2001) or the lowest seeded divisional winner (2002-present). And given how much six seeds seem to be winning wild card games lately (the six seed has won five of its' last six opening matchups, including four straight), that means the four draws the two, instead of the one, in the divisional, in theory the easier matchup.
Also, four four seeds have won the Super Bowl -- your 1997 those people, your 2011 New York Football Giants ... and the 2000 and 2012 Baltimore Ravens. Maybe Lamar should have tanked December and collapsed into Houston's slot, instead of winning twelve straight to be the one seed?
Still there? We've only got two more to go. Here are the results of The Five Seeds:
Home Wins: Not Applicable.
Road Wins: 1.
Home Losses: Not Applicable.
Road Losses: 5.
Years Not Reaching Title Game: 1990, 1991, 1992, 1993, 1994, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2006, 2008, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019.
Quirky Statistical: there has never been a five versus six Title Game matchup, which is the only way the five could be a home team.
Thoughts / Analysis: the only five seed to win a Title Game, pulled off arguably the greatest upset in Super Bowl history to follow it up -- the 2007 New York Giants.
And finally, the category your Tennessee Titans squeeze into, The Six Seeds:
Home Wins: Not Applicable.
Road Wins: 2.
Home Losses: Not Applicable.
Road Losses: 3.
Years Not Reaching Title Game: 1990, 1991, 1992, 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2006, 2007, 2009, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018.
Quirky Statistical: it took fifteen years for a six seed to reach a Title Game (2005 Pittsburgh Steelers). Then five of them reached in the next six years -- a remarkable 41.66% stretch from 2005-2010.
Thoughts / Analysis: your 2019 Tennessee Titans are the first six seed to reach a Title Game since the 2010 Packers (who destroyed their hated rival Chicago Bears) and my 2010 New York Jets (who lost by five in Pittsburgh). Nine years is a long time to go between Title Game appearances -- the longest for any seed, actually ... save for the fifteen year drought to open the modern playoff era, the six seeds produced.
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So what do the statisticals foretell for Sunday?
Damned if I know.
Two seeds at home in the Title Game are 5-8 (38.46%). Six seeds are 2-3 in the Title Game (40.00%). A virtual dead heat.
Ironically, four of the five six seeds to reach the Title Game have faced a two seed. And the six seeds are 2-2 in this spot against a two seed:
* 2005: 6 Pittsburgh Steelers over 2 those people.
* 2008: 2 Pittsburgh Steelers over 6 Baltimore Ravens.
* 2010: 2 Pittsburgh Steelers over 6 New York Jets.
* 2010: 6 Green Bay Packers over 2 Chicago Bears.
(It's probably really, really good the Steelers collapsed and avoided the six seed and the playoffs altogether, folks. Probably a really, really good thing.)
To be fair, each of those six seeds above won at least ten games, and all but the Packers won at least eleven. So it's not like we're talking about the 2017 Buffalo Bills, or 1999 Detroit Lions, or 2004 St. Louis Rams, or 2006 Kansas City Chiefs here. (None of whom truly deserved a playoff berth, but somebody had to "earn" them.)
These Titans? Opened 2-4, were 4-5 entering the first rodeo with the Chiefs, have changed quarterbacks midstream, lost two out of three to "qualify" for the postseason ... and yet, here they sit, with a chance to do something I don't believe has ever been done before: beat all four divisional winners, in four straight games ... and a fifth one would await in Miami, two weeks from now.
They won at Houston in Week Seventeen to get in. They won at New England to survive and advance out of the Wild Card. They won at Baltimore in the Divisional. And now they come here on Sunday, looking to hit the quadfecta.
This could be fascinating to watch play out ... especially if the Titans can get the ground game going early and often ...
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