college hoops thoughts

As some of you are aware, there are two college teams I root for.

KU, obviously. Many posts on this site related to KU Football, basketball, and there's probably a baseball riff or two on here somewhere, if only to rehash another one of my "proudest" moments in life, when at a KU baseball game sometime back in college, at quarter hot dog night, when a dude built like Kirby Puckett went back for more, and I dropped the "why? Doesn't look like you need anymore" blast at him. (I'm guessing I'd been drinking. That, or I really am retarded. Seriously, how did I escape high school and college without ever getting my ass kicked?)

Anyways, the other school I passionately follow ... is Syracuse.

Ten days ago, Syracuse stood undefeated at 17-0. It had risen to the number two ranking, facing number four Pittsburgh on Big Monday.

The Cuse promptly fell behind 19-0 en route to their first defeat of the season.

Six days ago, the Cuse packed the Dome to the rafters, hosting then number seven Villanova. And got pole-axed, never leading and losing by double digits.

Three days ago, the Cuse hosted also-ran Seton Hall ... and lost by 28. At home.

I say all this, because every year, at least one presumed "lock" for the tournament entering February seems to completely collapse and either head to the NIT, or squeak into the tourney before having their season mercifully ended. Last year, there were two shining examples of this: North Carolina and Texas.

I say all this ... because is the Cuse this year's falling star?

Once a team starts the downward spiral, it can be damned near impossible to recover from. Ask North Carolina last year, who started 12-4, and won their conference opener against Virginia Tech ... and then promptly dropped 7 of 8, the final defeat being a double digit Duke victory in Chapel Hill. Carolina finished 3-5 after that Duke rout, to finish at .500, sadly qualifying for the NIT (where they actually reached the title game before losing to Dayton).

(And by sadly, I mean tragically. I hate UNC with a freaking passion. I never could stand them even before the Rat Bastard arrived in 2004. His coaching tenure has just taken my dislike of the Tar Heels from "glad to see them lose" to "I hate them like I'm a Dukie").

Texas, like this year's Cuse team, opened 17-0 ... and lost 10 of 17 to end the season, the last defeat being a loss in the opening round to Wake Forest (an achievement deemed so great in the eyes of the Wake AD that he promptly sh*t canned their head coach 72 hours later).

Is the Cuse this year's Texas, this year's Carolina?

They currently sit at 17-3, but have lost three straight, each by a larger margin than the other. Worse yet, the last two defeats have come at home, where in the friendly confines of the Carrier Dome, Syracuse enjoys one of college hoops finest home court advantages. (Probably because there ain't sh*t else to do in Syracuse in the winter). Now, they face back-to-back brutal roadies, at Marquette on Saturday afternoon, then Wednesday night at UConn. I'd say it's not only highly conceivable that the Cuse hits a L5 as their trending streak, it's highly likely to happen.

After UConn, it doesn't get much better. The Cuse will have ten guaranteed games after the UConn game next Wednesday ... and (gulp) there's not much room to breathe:

* at South Florida (8-14, 2-8 conf). Syracuse should roll in this one ... but they should have rolled Seton Hall at home, and again, if you enter with that L5 as your trending streak, your confidence is rattled, and upsets happen.
* vs Georgetown (15-5, 4-4 conf). More on this in a minute.
* at Louisville (16-4, 5-2 conf). Yikes.
* vs West Virginia (13-6, 4-3 conf). Won't be easy.
* vs Rutgers (12-8, 3-5 conf). Should be easy ... but once the ball starts rolling down the hill towards Bubbleville ...
* at Villanova (17-3, 5-2 conf). They've already beaten Syracuse by 11 in the Dome.
* at Georgetown. Yikes.
* vs DePaul (6-14, 0-8 conf). A breather to end conference play. They need it.
* Big East Tournament, opponent TBA.

Right now, based on how things currently exist, I see at least 5 more defeats coming: at Marquette, at UConn, at Louisville, at Villanova, at Georgetown. I see three games the Cuse SHOULD win: at South Florida, vs Rutgers, vs DePaul. That puts them at 20-8, with three games left to determine the fate of the season: the Big East opener (which could be humongous for the Bubble), West Virginia at home ...

And the game that has to be the fail-safe, the game that I believe the season rides on: hosting the hated Hoyas on February 9th.

Last year, UNC's season was effectively over after losing that game to Duke. That was the fail-safe game. The one that if they won, the slide is halted, you get your confidence back, and begin to trend positively -- but if you lose, there's no stopping the slide. They lost. NIT bound.

(Conversely, you can argue Duke never looked back after that break-through victory -- they only lost one more the rest of the way (at Maryland) en route to the national championship).

Hopefully it won't come to the fail-safe. Maybe the Cuse comes out gangbusters on Saturday. Marquette is a winnable game. But I fear that game against Georgetown in twelve days is going to be huge for Syracuse's postseason hopes.

A few other college hoop thoughts, and I believe this is the first college hoop post of this season for me? I've been slacking ...

* Speaking of fail-safe games, speaking of "do or die" moments, speaking of "chance to really turn things around immediately" ... KSU at Kansas on Saturday night, everyone!

I have absolutely no idea what to expect out of KU at this point. Clearly the emotional toll of Thomas Robinson's personal blows hurt KU against Texas. On the other hand, I'd argue Tuesday night's win in Boulder was KU's most inspired performance so far this year.

I also have no idea what to expect from KU, because this team is fatally flawed. They have two huge problems, none of which I see any way Coach Self can correct. First, they don't have "the guy", the person you look to in the closing moments of a tight game, and put the game on his shoulders. In the words of Rick Pitino, Sherron Collins ain't walking through that door. Neither is Mario Chalmers, or Jacque Vaughn, or Jeff Boschee, or Kirk Hinrich, or any other stud Jayhawk who when the going got tough, pulled a Jimmy Chitwood and said "I'll make it Coach", and you knew he would.

But far more damaging than that in my opinion, because at least KU does have options at the end of a game ... is the fact that this team is atrocious at the foul line. I mean, atrocious. If there's an adjective that is stronger than atrocious, use that to describe KU at the line. In the words of Chuck Barkley, they're TURRIBLE! The Morris Twins are both 65% shooters, and if you watched them Saturday against Texas, you'd have guessed their percentage was in the teens, not the sixties. Thomas Robinson (and who knows where he goes from here, unfortunately) isn't even at 50%. He's at 47. Selby and Thomas are both in the low 80s ... but Thomas doesn't get to the line enough to make a difference. And let's be honest here -- in a one point game on the road, do you really want a freshman as inconsistent as Josh Selby shooting the deciding free throws? (My way of saying, KU ain't got NOBODY I'd trust from the line inside the final five minutes).

KU is easily leaving 10-12 points a game at the foul line. Easily. You can do that against Nebraska, and barely survive (like KU did). You can't do that against Texas, or A&M, or Mizzou, and expect to walk away with anything other than a defeat.

On the other side of the court Saturday night, wow, how big is this game for the Wildcats? You can legitimately argue their entire season rides on this game Saturday night. A loss drops KSU to 2-5 in the conference, means they've dropped 5 of 7, and are about to come dangerously close to replicating North Carolina from last year, or (a more apt description) the MU Tigers of 2003-2004, who took a top three national ranking and promptly lost in the first round of the NIT by the time the season was over.

The good news for KSU is that, after this game, they only have one virtually unwinnable roadie left (at Texas). They also figure to be favored in their next three (vs Neb / at ISU / at Col) entering the rematch with KU on Valentine's Day. So even with a loss Saturday night, the Wildcats season is far from over. But if they could win on Saturday? As a KU fan, I refuse to even contemplate that possibility. But as a college hoops fan, let's just say this game is very, very intriguing.

* Speaking of intriguing games, the most interesting game on the board to me this weekend is Duke at St. John's (Sunday, noon, CBS). I know Ohio State is deservedly ranked number one, based on their being the last undefeated team standing, but I still think Duke is the best team in America, and I will be shocked if they don't at least reach Houston come the end of March.

Having said that, and going back to a recurring theme, is this St. John's fail-safe game? They've dropped three straight after a great start (10-2) to the season. Steve Lavin is a tremendous head coach (and good God, do I miss his commentary, he was one of the great ones ESPN had). But it's asking too much for this team to stand toe-to-toe with Duke. The collapse is on. It's not stopping in this one.

I like Duke, and I like them to roll St. John's. And I mean roll. As in "pick the worst player on the Duke roster, he's getting at least five minutes of playing time" roll. This is going to be, in the words of one of my favorite phrases, "an ass kicking of Biblical proportions". This Duke team is scary good. There's not a flaw anywhere. Sunday just feels like one of those break-out type of games, where a team you know is pretty decent, but hasn't really had a statement win yet, goes out and beats a decent team senseless.

(My favorite example of this type of game? Easy, the 2002 2nd round, KU against Stanford. You have to think back, but good God, was I nervous for this game. KU nearly crapped the court in the opening round, barely defeating Holy Cross. Kirk Hinrich had rolled his ankle and was doubtful. I don't think Gregg and I said even five words between us driving to St. Louis that morning. You couldn't have pulled a pin out of my ass come tip-off, I was so nervous. And even worse? They don't sell booze at NCAA events. The Kentucky fans by us had their moonshine, but it wasn't helping. Nervous City with a capital N.

And then, in a shock to every KU fan there, Kirk Hinrich started. Five hours earlier the dude couldn't walk. Now he's being introduced? It totally jacked up the crowd (of which at least 90% were rooting for KU). We went from scared sh*tless to "f*ck it, we're winning this today" positive in about 2 seconds. Stanford had no clue what hit them. KU couldn't miss. Collison was hitting everything in the paint, and then Boschee drained a three pointer to make it 15-0. Mike Montgomery called TO at that point to stop the bleeding ... before the under sixteen timeout. That's incredible -- KU dropped fifteen on Stanford so fast, we hadn't even reached the first TV timeout yet. KU won 86-63, and kept on winning all the way to Atlanta for their first Final Four in a decade. This is the type of game I expect Duke to play on Sunday).

* Huge loss for Gonzaga last night, falling at home to St. Mary's by two. It's why I'm dragging this morning, I couldn't turn this game off. Gonzaga is now in real, real danger of missing the tournament. Lunardi still has them in the field this morning in his Bracketology watch ... but they're barely in (they're just off the dreaded opening-round last-teams-in grouping). Gonzaga's problem is that they really only have two chances to defeat a tourney team the rest of the way. They have Memphis in a couple weeks, and the return trip to St. Mary's after that. If you drop one or (worse) both of those? You're done.

* In bigger trouble than Gonzaga though, is Butler. Short of the auto-qualifier route, how do they get in? They've got way too many losses, and not enough quality wins. Lunardi has them barely in right now, but as the teams behind them (like Baylor, Washington State, Oklahoma State, Maryland) start potentially piling up big victories, what does Butler have to match them with? I mean, UW Milwaukee is a really neat place, even employs my cousin's husband. It's right on the Lake, in old Milwaukee, just a gorgeous area of town. But they have no business beating Butler twice in the same year, as they did this year. UW Milwaukee hasn't been relevant since Bruce Pearl was there in the late 1990s. Butler's in a world of trouble.

* Whoops, forgot to get into the other local team, which right now, I'd rate as the Big XII's best shot at reaching Houston. Yup, the Missouri Tigers.

(Spare me, Texas fans. Yes, you're undefeated. Yes, I have comments about you coming up. But no, you are not reaching the Final Four. Look at who your coach is. He's going to be de-pantsed by someone, probably around Sweet Sixteen time, on the other sideline. Rick Barnes is a great guy, and an incredible human being (more on this in a few paragraphs). But he is an AWFUL in-game coach. He's the only guy in America not named "Quin Snyder" who could fail to reach the Sweet Sixteen with Kevin Durant on his roster. Enough said).

MU plays Texas on Saturday night (8pm on the U), and you better believe I'll be tuned into that one. I love this Tigers team. I always liked Nolan Richardson's Arkansas teams back in the day. Partly because that's my brother's rooting interest, so I was forced to watch them when they were on ... but mostly because I just love the style of play. I love up-tempo basketball. Its why I strongly prefer the NBA to college, because the style of play is much better most of the time. (That, and the quality of play is 1,000 times better all of the time).

I really think this MU team can win in Austin Saturday night. They're the perfect team to do it, actually -- even against KU last weekend, Texas struggled to get the ball up the court and into position to run the offense, and KU really didn't press until the final ten minutes of the game. MU will be on them from the opening tip-off. In fact, hell, I'll predict it. MU 84, Texas 80. This is a very good Longhorns team, and they'll be in the mix for a top two seed (and a layup Tulsa - San Antonio route to Houston that only Rick Barnes could f*ck up). But MU's just as good. For one night, they're going to be better.

* As I mentioned a bit earlier, whatever I think of Rick Barnes as a head coach (and I don't think much of him) ... what an incredibly class act this guy is. The way he handled Saturday's game at KU was a masterpiece in class, dignity, and sportsmanship. Ditto his team -- there wasn't any taunting, any mocking, any rubbing it in as UT pulled away. Instead, each of them came up to T-Rob to express their sympathy, and Barnes' post game presser was one of the finest moments we'll see in sports this season.

But it wasn't the classiest, or the finest, or the most sportsmanlike, or any other adjective that we see way too rarely in sports anymore.

That would be UT on Wednesday night in Oklahoma State. Which, if you weren't aware, was the ten-year anniversary of the tragic plane crash that killed two Cowboys players and eight other members of the team (coaches, SID, pilots). A horrific event that Oklahoma State was attempting to properly honor and reflect on with commemorative t-shirts and pregame ceremonies.

Most coaches, would have their team respectfully stand and honor the victims during the pregame ceremony. They might even allow a ribbon on the jersey for one night.

Rick Barnes went beyond that. He had his team wear the tribute t-shirts during all warmups, while on the bench, and after the game.

Maybe I'm just getting softer as I get older. Maybe I'm finally embracing the good side of my personality, instead of the "I hate those guys! / I love those guys!" blind passion-side that usually dominates my view of sports. But I actually sat jaw-open when I saw what Barnes and his players did. That, was class. That was more than class. That was amazing.

(And something you'd never see that thug in Manhattan do in a thousand years. Christ, Frank Martin would probably boo the video tribute while asking "what's the big f*cking deal, it's been ten f*cking years, come on, we got a f*cking game to f*cking play!" during the moment of silence. Hey, its the passionate side of me re-emerging. Whew. Was worried I'd lost him there for a second ...)

As for UT itself, I was thorougly impressed with Saturday's win at KU (as well as Wednesday's surprisingly easy win at State). KU came out like gangbusters, absolutely on fire ... and Texas scored something like 65 of the last 88 points to win the game. They outscored KU at home by 23 points in the second half. I can't recall that EVER happening at the Field House. This is a phenomenal team, talent-wise probably the best since UT reached the 2003 Final Four. Or since Durant was one-and-done in 2007. Fun to watch, tough as nails, they simply keep plugging away until things go their way (and once it does turn in their favor, they just keep coming, a mark of a very resilient team). I just feel bad for Texas fans. We know how this is going to end. And it's not going to end in Houston.

* It wouldn't be appropriate for a college hoops post to pass without once again, begging, pleading, doing everything short of hitting my knees and blowing, please ESPN. Get rid of Bob Knight.

Monday nights, I mean, is ESPN's programming guru deaf? You go from the best team in the business (McDonough, Bilas, Raftery) to one of the three or four worst broadcast pairings in history (Musburger, Knight). And I love Brent Musburger. Knight really is that awful.

Seeing as how KU has three straight Big Monday appearances starting a week from now, this is not going to end well. I envision a cracked flat screen after I hurl a couple bottles at it in anger and actually connect.

I literally had to go to a bar for the second half of the KU / Baylor game a couple weeks ago. I was so hacked at having to listen to Knight, I feared I might hurl stuff at the TV. And I don't exactly have $600 laying around to replace it. So I went and spent money (aka bought drinks) to watch KU in a blowout win, because Knight p*ssed me off so much.

We're hitting crisis levels here. I haven't hated a broadcaster this much since Scott Lasky was hosting the NFL Sunday Ticket, and that was like 12 years ago. Please, ESPN, I'm begging you. Fire Bob Knight. Or at least demote him to the late night WCC game.

To put it another way: when I agree with Klassy Kevin Keitzman on something, and I am 100% in agreement with his "Fire Bob Knight" stance, I mean ... Knight has to be eight layers of awful. And he is.

* So, I guess I should end by going on the record with some picks for the weekend:

* MU 84, at Texas 80. For reasons stated above.
* Duke 103, at St. John's 62. For reasons stated above.
* at Marquette 76, Syracuse 69. Don't like the makeup of this Cuse team at all. Marquette always a tough out at home, and they need this one badly.
* at KU 74, KSU 73 (OT). Total homer pick. If I was betting on this game, I'd definitely take KSU, and I'd be tempted to take them straight up.
* at Baylor 82, Colorado 78. Huge bubble implications, for both teams.
* at UConn 81, Louisville 60. Waitresses at Italian restaurants in the Tri-State, be aware: Rick Pitino's in town for the weekend!
* at Villanova 64, Georgetown 61. Should be a typical Big East slugfest.
* BYU 81, at New Mexico 79. Huge letdown alert for BYU, but this ain't last year's Lobos team.
* at Nebraska 73, Texas A&M 68. Doc Sadler's taking down at least one heavyweight this year. A&M seems a little overvalued to me.
* at Missouri State 73, Northern Iowa 65. Huge, huge, huge Valley championship and NCAA bubble implications. Hu-yuge.

Who knows, now that I've finally logged a marathon college hoops post, I might finally get around to covering the basketball league I friggin love for once ...