Go baby! Just do your thing!
But give up your keys --
Hell, why drive when you can stay with me!
And then after awhile?
We'll sneak away from the bonfire.
Walk by the moonlight,
And down to the riverside.
Gotcha sippin' on some moonshine --
Baby, if you're in the mood
And you can settle
For a one night rodeo?
You could be my tan-legged Juliet,
And I'll be your redneck Romeo!
Oh baby! You can find me
In the back of a jacked up tailgate!
Sittin' 'round watching all these pretty things?
Get down in that Georgia clay!
And I'll find peace,
At the bottom of a real tall cold drink!
Chillin' with some Skynyrd
And some old Hank!
Let's get this thing started!
It's my kind of party!!! ..."
-- "My Kind of Party", made famous by Jason Aldean, but written (and performed much better) by Brantley Gilbert.
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The Statisticals.
(Note: no Week Ten Picks were submitted due to real-life issues that trumped posting them.)
Last Week SU: 7-9-0. An average finish to an average season of prognosticating.
Final Season to Date SU: 139-100-1. Above .500!
Last Week ATS: 8-8-0. An average finish to an average season of prognosticating.
Final Season to Date ATS: 123-111-6. Above .500!
Last Week Upset / Week: a gigantic bleeping catastrophe.
Final Season to Date Upset / Week SU: 7-11-0. Where I'll be working to pay off my gambling debt from this season, I'm sure. (vice president biden voice) The hell you will, pal ...
Final Season to Date Upset / Week ATS: 9-9-0. A loser with the vig factored in.
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The Wild Card Picks.
I should note up front, I think picking the Wild Card round, is the hardest week of the season for NFL predictions. Your worst team left standing (and (mitch holtgus voice) for all intents and purposes, that is your Philadelphia Eagles this season), is still better than at least 62.5% of the NFL by definition (since twenty of thirty two teams fail to get this far). And most seasons -- especially this one -- there's at least two or three teams that have no business being in this round ... because they're far too good for it. (I'm looking at you, Saints, Patriots, and Texans ... and possibly Seahawks.)
Consider, the last four years in the Wild Card round:
* 2018: road teams (Colts at Texans, Seahawks at Cowboys, "Super" Chargers at Ravens, Eagles at Bears) went 3-1 outright, and you'd have won all four had you bet the spread on the road team. Only Dallas won, and that took a last second drive, to make that outcome occur.
* 2017: road teams (Titans at Chiefs, "Shane" Falcons at Rams, Bills at Jaguars, Panthers at Saints) went 2-2 outright, and no home team covered.
(Note: as John Breech at cbssports.com points out, and I suppose I just inadvertently noted, home teams are 0-8 ATS the last two years. ZERO AND EIGHT! That ... (john davidson voice) That's incredible!)
* 2016: the outlier. Road teams (raiders at Texans, Lions at Seahawks, Dolphins at Steelers, Giants at Packers) went 0-4, with no covers. To be fair, those are four of the worst road wild card teams in modern history, if you remember the raiders had to start Connor Cook. But stlll.
* 2015: road teams (Chiefs at Texans, Steelers at Bengals, Seahawks at Vikings, Packers at Redskins) went undefeated, with three of the four (all but the Steelers) being outright favorites on the road.
If you had bet solely on the road teams the last four years, you'd have gone 9-7 overall, and 11-5 against the spread. For all the talk about how "unfair" it is for a lesser-win team to host a team with a superior record? The facts show there's virtually no advantage whatsoever, for a home team in the Wild Card round.
Anyways, with that out of the way -- that this is a total crapshoot of a week to predict -- let's predict it, shall we?
* 5 Bills at 4 Texans (Saturday, 3:30pm CT, ABC / ESPN). OK, peoples and peepettes, be scared about this: I accurately called this as the playoff opener -- in this slot! -- four months ago. Did I get the seeding wrong? Of course. But tell me this isn't something to be proud of!
As for the game itself, my God, what an apparent mismatch ... on paper. The Bills have failed to top seventeen points in a game in December, and the only two times they topped thirty this year? Were against the Miami Dolphins.
They closed 1-3, the only win down the stretch coming at the Steelers, who themselves dropped three straight to p*ss away the second Wild Card. They're a run-heavy offense in a league that rewards deep balls and taking chances. And if there are two things Josh Allen is not accused of having a grasp on, it is deep balls and taking chances.
(Note: does that deserve a (rimshot!)? It doesn't? Damn. (florida evans voice) Damn, damn, damn!)
(Also: you're damned right I intentionally asked that question, to drop a "Good Times" reference into this post.)
Conversely, the Texans have closed fairly solidly since their debacle of a defeat in Crab Cake City. They throttled the Patriots, won in Nashville, and beat a Bucs team that had won four straight, to clinch the division. (We're ignoring the indefensible ass-kicking those people delivered to them a couple weeks ago, on purpose.)
Deshaun Watson can bomb it with anyone; Carlos Hyde gives them a solid back to gain the tough yardage, and the Texans will be at home, in front of a highly underrated crowd. (I've been to Reliant enough to respect their fans, tremendously. They're not Arrowhead, but they're in the upper 25% of home field crowds in the NFL, for sure.)
Throw in JJ Watt's likely return to bolster an already better than average defense, and on paper, the Texans should easily cover, and cruise to their first playoff victory since Connor Cook and "Brave" Brock Osweiler were engaged in a Jerry "The King" Lawler Memorial "Bras and Panties" match four years ago.
And usually, those two key words -- "on paper" -- would give me pause. Because I can absolutely see the Bills get off to a solid 7-0, 10-0 start, then release the hounds to try to tee off on Deshaun Watson (whose offensive line is nowhere near as good as it should be, for the talent they have).
Only ... I find it far easier to envision the opposite occurring: the Texans scoring on their first two drives to get up a couple scores, and then sending the house after Josh Allen, with a raucous NRG Reliant crowd urging them on.
And that's what I'm betting to happen. At Texans (-3) 31, Bills 13.
* 6 Titans at 3 Patriots (Saturday, 7pm CT, CBS).
True story time, boys and girls: I lived in the D/FW Metroplex for four years, to end the 1990s, as I was conning the fine folks at TCU into graduating me with not one, but two -- two! -- degrees, neither of which I have used a day in my life for my career, so far. (TCU: only $300 / credit hour back then, nearly $500 / credit hour today!)
And as a resident of that fine metropolitan area * , for the better part of those three, four years, you heard the phrase "end of the dynasty" a number of times. Hell, even the one time I conceded the Cowboys dynasty might be truly once and for all dead (after a disasterous defeat to the Panthers in Week Fifteen 1997), the Cowboys still (a) controlled their own destiny for that disasterous 1997 season, (b) went undefeated in the division and won the NFC East in 1998, and (c) earned a Wild Card berth in 1999.
That's why I question people who think one outlier (last week vs. Dolphins) means the Patriots run is about to come to a close Saturday night, or next Sunday at Arrowhead. Proud, proven veteran teams don't usually completely implode unless there's a drastic reason why. (Example: the 1999 49ers, who after eighteen straight double digit win seasons, collapsed to 4-12 because Steve Young was concussed into retirement.)
Unless you can guarantee me this is Tom Brady's final game (or final season), the Patriots run won't be over, win or lose. (No draw is possible in the postseason.)
As for the Titans, I was thoroughly impressed with them when I went to Nashville two months ago. That stadium was 60% Chiefs fans, the Chiefs got up 10-0 before the Titans knew what hit them ... and the Titans never quit fighting, to earn a three point victory over our AFC West Champions. Ryan Tannehill is finally playing like he did for the 2016 Dolphins, Derrick Henry is a f*cking beast, and Corey Davis is finally developing into the receiver the Titans always thought he would be.
(Doubt me on the 60% Chiefs fan comment? Here's a snapshot of the other side of the field:
And the side of the field I sat on:
(image credits: me, via my iPhone X something.)
This is the toughest game on the board for me to guess. It also will probably be the most entertaining game of the weekend, as every American who isn't a Patriots fan is suddenly shouting "Titan Up!" at their TV's for four hours Saturday night. (Circle me amongst those doing the shouting.)
All our screams? Aren't gonna matter. The Titans are on the rise. The Patriots are on the decline. But their X and Y coordinates haven't met -- yet -- on the grid.
Let alone passed each other, in descent and upswing. At Patriots 28, Titans (+4 1/2) 24.
(*: my favorite cities / communities in this fine country I would love to live in (and/or already have and/or currently do): 5) Tampa / St. Pete (seems obvious -- on the Gulf, in a purple state), 4) Sioux Falls (don't knock it until you've done it ... although the cold is f*cking brutal from late November to early March), 3) D/FW (never imagined this would be anywhere but numero uno), 2) Kansas City (I love my hometown), 1) Houston. If anything, my absolute love for that city only grows every time I am lucky enough to visit it. Which, sadly, won't be before January 2021, at the earliest ... for football purposes anyway.)
* 6 Vikings at 3 Saints (Sunday, noon CT, FOX). I am having brunch with my mom for our birthday's during this game. That should tell you what I think about how competitive it will be. Only one more year of Kirk Cousins, Vikings fan. Only one more year. At Saints (-8) 45, Vikings 16.
* 5 Seahawks at 4 Eagles (Sunday, 3:30pm CT, NBC). This is the game I am most looking forward to. I cannot wait to see what Doug Pederson comes up with to keep his team in this game. Because again, those two magical little words -- "on paper" -- on paper, the Seahawks should win this game easily. (They are the only road favorite in this year's Wild Card round, and deservedly so.)
The Eagles enter this one having won their last four, and clearly, whatever was said to enter that fourth quarter against the Giants, is still doing its' job, as each win for these guys keeps getting more impressive.
The Seahawks enter this one having lost two straight (at home!), and three of four overall. If momentum matters to you, then the Eagles have it.
Only ... the Eagles four wins have come against the Giants (twice), the Redskins, and the Cowboys. Not exactly murderer's row. Conversely, the Seahawks lost to the Rams in a "kitchen sink" game, a rising Cardinals squad, and the team with home field advantage throughout the postseason (49ers) -- a game that was literally a half inch from going their way.
I'd argue betting December momentum on this contest, is as useless as betting on any of the Democratic Presidential candidates at this point -- no matter what you think at this point?
None of it matters when you get down to two "teams", on a level playing field.
To bring this post full circle, think back to my thoughts on the Bills and Texans game, only flip my thoughts. I can absolutely envision the Eagles getting out to a two score lead after a quarter, and then going gangbusters after Russell Wilson, en route to a 21-10 victory that is far more comfortable for Philly than it looks on paper. That is absolutely a realistic view of this contest.
But the far more realistic view, is what happened when these two teams met in Philly six weeks ago: the Seahawks get out to a quick two score lead, then ride the defense to a tight, hard fought victory, to survive and advance. Doug Pederson is so good of a coach, he'll find a way to keep this game far, far closer than it has any reason to be. But Pete Carroll is a good enough head coach, Mr. Pederson's efforts won't matter. Seahawks (-1 1/2) 20, at Eagles 13.
Enjoy the games everyone! And in case my next post isn't up before the stroke of midnight tonight, all the best in this New Year (and new decade!) to you and yours.
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