week twelve picks

The Statisticals.

Last Week SU: 8-6-0.

Season to Date SU: 98-62-1.

Last Week ATS: 7-7-0.

Season to Date ATS: 75-80-6.

Last Week Upset / Week: rock bottom.

Season to Date Upset / Week SU: 3-10-0.

Season to Date Upset / Week ATS: 4-9-0.

This Week Upset / Week: Patriots (+2 1/2) over "Super" Cardinals.

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The Week Twelve Picks.

Bye: none.

Thanksgiving Day:

* at Lions (+3) 17, Texans 13.  Coach Baffoon vs Matt Patricia -- two turkeys not even God can pardon for their utter and total coaching incompetence.  Although Deshaun Watson against Matt Stafford is at least cranberry sauce good enough to tune in ... until KU and Gonzaga tips off around the eight minute to go mark in the first half.

* Redskins (+3) 24, at Cowboys 20.  A battle of two 3-7-0 teams in which the winner takes over first place!  Your NFC Least everyone!

Sunday:

* at Steelers (-4 1/2) 27, Ravens 17.  Hear me out on this: Lamar Jackson is this century's Kordell Stewart.  Everyone forgets Kordell led the Steelers to 12 wins and an AFC Title Game in 1997, garnering some MVP support.  Then he stumbled to .500 in 1998, and was benched by 2000.  The trajectory for Lamar is looking frighteningly similar.  Of course, the big difference between the two is that gun to his head, Kordell Stewart could throw the ball more than fifteen yards downfield.  Lamar can't.

* at Patriots (+2 1/2) 24, "Super" Cardinals 14.  I never bet against a proven veteran team, playing at home, with its' season on the line.  Which probably explains why I had a $30,000 plus gambling debt by the time I was in my mid 20s.

* at Vikings (-4) 31, Panthers 20.  See previous paragraph.

* Browns (-6 1/2) 41, at Jaguars 6.  I'm laying a touchdown ... on the Browns ... on the road.  God spare my bank account.

* at Bills (-5 1/2) 31, "Super" Chargers 13.  As my buddy Pickell would note: "put it this way" -- if the Bills cannot win this game, they're burnt toast without any jam come January.  Coming off a horrible beat, with the bye to recover and re-motivate, again -- if the Buffalo Bills lose this game?  Sh*t, they may not survive to see January beyond my 44th birthday, if they drop this one.

* Dolphins 13, at Jets (+7) 10.  The last six: vs Dolphins / vs raiders / at Seahawks / at Rams / vs Browns / at Patriots.  You find a win in there.  Because I'll be damned if I can.

* Giants (-5 1/2) 26, at Bengals 10.  I so freaking hate the injury to Joe Burrow.  Hopefully he's back healthy and productive in nine months.  The Chiefs play at the Bengals next year; that's a very doable (and already done) roadie.

* Titans (+3 1/2) 31, at Colts 28.  If you haven't or didn't see the Colts last "drive" in regulation last week, please, do yourself a favor and find a way to watch it.  Because the play by play doesn't do it justice.  The Colts were flagged for seven -- seven! -- flags, on a drive where all they had to do was bleed a couple minutes off the clock.  Six -- six! -- of those flags, were for offensive holding.  Anyone who thinks a team that can't execute six handoffs without six holding calls is going to be a factor in January, let alone get there?  Might need a mental health evaluation more than I do.

* raiders (-3) 34, at "Shane" Falcons 3.  The raiders may be the single biggest team standing between the Chiefs and a repeat championship come January.  And those are words I never imagined I'd type.

* at those people (+5) 24, Saints 14.  Setting up a last gasp next Sunday night at Arrowhead.  

* at Rams (-7) 31, 49ers 21.  And to think people laughed at me three months ago when I predicted the Rams to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl.

* at Packers 24, Bears (+8 1/2) 21.  This line is at least a couple points too high.  Bears / Packers is always a one score game, no matter how good or bad the other squad is.

Monday:

* Seahawks (-5 1/2) 34, at Eagles 10.  I know I never bet against proven veteran teams at home with their season on the line ... but I will, if it's obvious their season is already over.  To bastardize "The Voice of Reason": the Eagles Christmas goose is not only cooked, it's so burned it's unedible.

Chiefs:

First things first: the HomeGate this week will be at The Quaff downtown.  We've reserved the back party room, and the pizza and wings are covered.  All any guest has to cover is the cost of their booze.

(And yes, I know -- The Quaff and I are not friends.  We're not even frenemies.  Bad things tend to happen when I go to The Quaff.  I like to think though, that the changes made in my life, mean I won't have multiple waitresses, the bartender, and the owner shouting "you let him leave?!?!?!" -- followed by a frightened to the gates of hell itself "you let him drive?!?!?!" -- when I, uuh, leave, Sunday night.)

Anyways, if you can make it, show up anytime after 2:30 and we can accommodate ya.

As for the game itself?  

This one kind of reminds me of Chiefs at Cowboys 2005.  And that's not a good thing for either team, although it's really not a good thing for one team on Sunday.

I see the Bucs scoring with about thirty seconds left to go up three (just like the Cowboys fifteen years ago).  I see an incredible Chiefs catch to set the Chiefs up for an incredible tie from 45ish yards (just like the game fifteen years ago).  

And I see a miss, for a painful defeat.  (Just like fifteen years ago.  Trust me -- I was there.)

* at Bucs (+3) 38, Chiefs 35.