"Well my friends?
The time has come.
To raise the roof,
And have some fun.
Throw away
The work to be done,
And let the music
Play on!
Everybody sing;
Everybody dance.
Lose yourself?
In wild romance!
We're going to party!
Caramba! Fiesta!
Forever!
Come on and sing along!
We're going to party!
Caramba! Fiesta!
Forever!
Come on and sing along!
All night long! (All night!)
All night! (All night!)
All night long! (All night!)
All night! (All night!)
All night long! (All night!)
All night! (All night!)
All night long! (All night!)
All night! (All night!) ...
--
"All Night Long" by Lionel Richie.
--------------------
Welcome to the 2018 NFL Season Predictions Post.
Unlike last year, I'm not splitting this into five pieces, namely because I don't have the time to do it. So here we go, via the Version 1.0 NFL Power Poll for 2018.
Oh, and the schedule runs will appear as the eight division winners appear farther down this post.
(And yes, I know -- I somehow wound up with a 255-257 record. I literally spent an afternoon at work going line by line across sheets to find the error, and I couldn't do it. Also, I should probably note, this is year twenty of me working as a reinsurance accountant across two global and one local reinsurance companies. I am a fairly well known name in the industry (which, in a rarity for me, being fairly well known is a positive). And I couldn't find one error on seventeen lines of a tab despite four hours and multiple formulas (to say nothing of literally printing off each tab and going literally line by line by hand, to try to find said error). I feel you should know that.)
All I can say, is that if you're a fan of the direction the NFL is heading on the field? (And I sure as hell am!) Then you're gonna love the final four matchups, my schedule run came up with.
And I mean LOVE.
Because there isn't a quarterback over the age of 24, in my Final Four.
Tier One: The Last Place Finishers.
32. Baltimore Ravens (AFC Norris).
Projected Finish: 3-13-0 Overall / 0-6-0 Division / 1-11-0 Conference.
This is gonna be a brutal season for the Ravens. So brutal? That I project they will "accomplish" something they have never done in 22 prior years: lose at Arrowhead in a game that counts.
31. Arizona "Super" Cardinals (NFC West).
Projected Record: 3-13-0 Overall / 0-6-0 Division / 1-11-0 Conference.
On the bright side, you got Josh Rosen, my favorite QB in this year's draft. On the down side, you got Josh Rosen,
my favorite QB in this year's draft.
30. New York Giants (NFC East).
Projected Record: 4-12-0 Overall / 2-4-0 Division / 4-8-0 Conference.
I give it until about seven minutes left in the second quarter Sunday, before the "Pat Must Go!" chants break out at Fake Giants Stadium. Considering Pat Shurmur never should have been hired, that seems like a conservative guesstimate, on the exact point the fanbase revolts against this indefensible hire.
29. New York Jets (AFC East).
Projected Record: 4-12-0 Overall / 2-4-0 Division / 4-8-0 Conference.
Drafting
Browning Nagle Junior (aka Sam Darnold) might finally be my breaking point with this miserable franchise. (Pause). Jesus,
I'll never quit these lovable losers.
28. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (NFC South).
Projected Record: 5-11-0 Overall / 3-3-0 Division / 4-8-0 Conference.
Opening 0-5 (as I project the Bucs will do) does nothing to help inspire confidence in the future of this franchise. Much less the present.
27. Los Angeles "Super" Chargers (AFC West).
Projected Record: 6-10-0 Overall / 2-4-0 Division / 4-8-0 Conference.
This team is 4-11 in games that count prior to October 9th the previous three years. Four. And. Eleven.
(In contrast? The Chiefs are 9-5. (We had the early bye (Week 5) in 2016 to account for a one game difference.) The point being? The Chiefs
average being two games ahead of these guys at the quarter point of the season, the last three years. Also, the Chiefs owned divisional wins over the Chargers at the quarter point in both 2016 and 2017, as part of those nine wins and eleven Charger defeats, so make it effectively three games up with eleven to play.)
Their head coach is a blithering idiot, their quarterback has more kids (eight at last count) than playoff berths in his career (five at last count), they play in a stadium that freaking Dolphins fans outnumbered Chargers fans in last fall (to say nothing of every other visitor to wherever the hell they play at), and as if all that isn't damning enough ...
They open vs Chiefs (who they haven't beaten in their last eight attempts) / at Bills (however awful the Bills may be, home openers are always dicey) / at Rams (good luck guys) / vs 49ers (whose fans will definitely outnumber Chargers fans for). That smells like 1-3 at best.
Throw in a brutal last five (at Steelers / vs Bengals / at Chiefs (Thurs) / vs Ravens / at those people), to say nothing of the huge roster improvement of one divisional foe (and that foe ain't the Chiefs, and it ain't the raiders), and this just seems like the preseason darling that is going to sh*t the bed this fall.
Which is what I'm projecting.
26. Chicago Bears (NFC Norris).
Projected Record: 7-9-0 Overall / 3-3-0 Division / 5-7-0 Conference.
I actually have the Bears at 6-4 going to Detroit on Turkey Day, before the floor collapses. (The last six is brutal folks -- roadies to the Lions, 49ers and Vikings, plus home games against the Rams and Packers.) I also have the Bears with a better final record than a third place finisher, and a second place finisher, in other divisions. But since I project them to finish last in the NFC Norris, they fall into Tier One.
The compass is pointed north in the Windy City for once. There's a future here worth looking forward to for once.
25. Indianapolis Colts (AFC South).
Projected Record: 8-8-0 Overall / 3-3-0 Division / 6-6-0 Conference.
I have the Indianapolis Colts in a "win and they're in" finale against the Titans. (Hint: they won't win.) If Andrew Luck is healthy, this team will be in the wildcard mix, if not in the hunt for the AFC South. But that's one gigantic big "if".
Tier Two: The Third Place Finishers.
24. Buffalo Bills (AFC East).
Projected Record: 5-11-0 Overall / 3-3-0 Division / 5-7-0 Conference.
At least that Monday Nighter against the Patriots
should be fun for their fans. Because not much else this year, will be.
23. Cleveland Browns (AFC Norris).
Projected Record: 8-8-0 Overall / 4-2-0 Division / 6-6-0 Conference.
I have the Browns on the fringe of things for a wild card berth entering December. This team is finally headed in the
wrong right direction. I just couldn't find a ninth win for them in the run. And considering some of the wins I gave them, nine really seems like a stretch. But if anybody can pull it off, and obtain a "how the f*ck did this happen?!?!?!" playoff berth a year after rock stinking bottom, it's John Dorsey. (frank gifford voice)
We've seen it before. (dan dierdorf voice) Oh yeah!
22. those people (AFC West).
Projected Record: 8-8-0 Overall / 2-4-0 Division / 6-6-0 Conference.
The clusterf*ck at 9-7 / 8-8 in the AFC is so f*cking beautiful I nearly cried watching it play out. Not one, not two, not three, not four, not five, not six, not seven, but eight -- eight! -- AFC squads at 8-8 or 9-7, with a ninth at 7-9, and two more at 10-6. Five of those eleven, are making the playoffs.
Thankfully, one of those
four five is not going to be those people, the most despicable, indefensible, intolerable, vile, evil, demonic sports franchise to ever be birthed. I despise, and I mean despise, those people so much, I decided two years ago to just give in to the unfiltered hatred, and refuse to even type their name, let alone say it. Sh*t, I don't even use nicknames anymore like "bronkeys" or "unicorns" or "donkeys" or "heaving penises", because that gives them too much respect.
There's a reason why my first task at tailgating every week (after getting the Bus unloaded of course), is to lynch that despicable mascot with his five nooses, stuff that Chiefs pacifier in his demonic face, and slap the Chiefs diaper on him. And that reason is to give each and every fan the ability to let Cinco Noose Donkey know exactly what we think of him and his people. (Hint: his helmet was broken due to a drunken meltdown by someone (cough me cough) after the 2015 defeat to those people.)
Anyways, back to the Poll. If only because a pole is the only thing any female those people fan is even remotely qualified, to work on.
21. Atlanta "Shane" Falcons (NFC South).
Projected Record: 8-8-0 Overall / 3-3-0 Division / 6-6-0 Conference.
Surprise? Somebody has to finish third in the South, and I'm fairly confident it won't be New Orleans, which leaves the "Shane" Falcons and Panthers to battle it out for the "honors". Having six of their last nine (including all three divisional ones) on the road killed their stretch run.
20. Philadelphia Eagles (NFC East).
Projected Record: 8-8-0 Overall / 3-3-0 Division / 6-6-0 Conference.
For those who think I'm nuts for picking the Eagles third, I remind you,
I picked them to finish first last year,
and win a playoff game once they got there. Find another prognosticator with the foresight to have done that, at this time last season.
The Eagles last four buried them; I have them losing all three roadies in that stretch (Rams, Cowboys, Redskins), to miss the postseason.
19. San Francisco 49ers (NFC West).
Projected Record: 9-7-0 Overall / 4-2-0 Division / 7-5-0 Conference.
The first six are going to kill the 49ers. I have them controlling their own destiny for a wild card berth entering the finale (which I have them losing) despite opening 2-4. Brighter days are ahead for these guys for sure.
18. Minnesota Vikings (NFC Norris).
Projected Record: 9-7-0 Overall / 3-3-0 Division / 6-6-0 Conference.
I have the Vikings beating the 49ers in Week One, hence the higher ranking despite the 49ers superior conference record.
I just ... I can't explain it. There's three teams that everyone seems to love this year that I think are going to regress. One is your "Super" Chargers. The Vikings are the second. I don't like f*cking with chemistry at the quarterback position, that's working. (See Chiefs, 1997-1998). I really don't like f*cking with it for someone outside the building that doesn't know the playbook, doesn't know the culture, doesn't know the franchise. (See Chiefs, 1997-1998).
Week Sixteen wound up being the Vikings kryptonite. If they had won in Week Sixteen, they not only would have made the playoffs, they would have been the three seed as NFC Norris champs.
17. Jacksonville Jaguars (AFC South).
Projected Record: 9-7-0 Overall / 3-3-0 Division / 6-6-0 Conference.
Postseason: AFC Second Wild Card (Sixth Seed Overall).
Every year (or so it seems), some team blindly / drunkenly / stonedly (is that a word?) / by the skin of its' ass, sneaks into the playoffs, by literally losing their way into them. The Titans did it last year, losing three of four. I have two of them doing it this year, one being the Jags.
I have the Jaguars losing three of their last four, and five of their last seven, yet never really being in danger of missing the playoffs (I have the Jags clinching at least a wild card berth in Week Fifteen).
Still, in the AFC, where I have exactly six squads with a winning record, don't sleep on anyone. Anyone can win this thing, save for the Ravens and probably the Jets.
Tier Three: The Second Place Finishers.
16. Miami Dolphins (AFC East).
Projected Record: 7-9-0 Overall / 3-3-0 Division / 6-6-0 Conference.
Someone in this sh*ttacular division has to finish second.
15. Pittsburgh Steelers (AFC Norris).
Projected Record: 8-8-0 Overall / 4-2-0 Division / 6-6-0 Conference.
And this is the third team everyone is hyping, that I don't get the hype for.
I just don't see it. They lose a rock solid offensive coordinator, (al michaels voice) Ben is a year older, LeVeon Bell is holding out, Ryan Shazier can inspire but he can't tackle, and ... I mean, should I go on?
These guys remind me of the 2004 Chiefs, the 2010 Chargers, the 2017 Cowboys -- teams with the talent to make the playoffs, that for a variety of reasons, fail to get there. (Also, teams that indefensibly sh*t the bed at home in the Divisional Round, the year before. Those are the teams that tend to regress the following season. Probably because they're as hung over as I usually am, after a Chiefs "how the hell did this happen?" defeat in January.)
14. oakland raiders (AFC West).
Projected Record: 8-8-0 Overall / 3-3-0 Division / 8-4-0 Conference.
raiders finish ahead of those people via head to head sweep.
I also have the raiders in complete and total control of their own destiny, entering Week Sixteen. Win out and they're in. I project they won't. Which means they're the first team out in the AFC, via tiebreakers that I refuse to try to re-run. (When you have a five way clusterf*ck at 8-8, and strength of victory starts getting tossed around, it's time to call it a day.)
13. Carolina Panthers (NFC South).
Projected Record: 9-7-0 Overall / 3-3-0 Division / 6-6-0 Conference.
I project the finale at New Orleans to not only be a "win and you're in" scenario for both teams, I project that it's a "win and you're the division champs, lose and you miss the playoffs entirely" scenario for both teams.
(My way of saying, I project NBC to flex this one, into the final Sunday night slot.)
A de-facto playoff game to end the season between two hated rivals, who just met in the playoffs last year.
I love this sport sometimes.
12. Green Bay Packers (NFC Norris).
Projected Record: 10-6-0 Overall / 3-3-0 Division / 6-6-0 Conference.
No, I do not have the Green Bay Packers in the playoffs, although in this case, it is entirely their own fault. I have them losing head to head to both wild card teams (which eliminates them, if I read the tiebreaker rules correctly, in a three way tie between teams in three different divisions), and I have the Lions with a better conference record, which costs them the division (again, if I read the tiebreaker rules right, and after doing this schedule run across parts of three days, I'm not re-reading them until December).
I also want to get on record that Mike McCarthy will be the stunning "whoa! Dude got sh*t canned!" firing come December 31st.
11. Houston Texans (AFC South).
Projected Record: 9-7-0 Overall / 3-3-0 Division / 7-5-0 Conference.
Postseason: AFC First Wild Card (Fifth Seed Overall).
Texans earn tiebreaker over the Jaguars via conference record.
I have the Texans winning five of their last six to get in (the sole defeat being at Philly). And all I can say, is that if the Texans get in on a hot streak, with Deshaun Watson fully healthy under center, look out, AFC playoff bracket. Look out.
10. Seattle Seahawks (NFC West).
Projected Record: 10-6-0 Overall / 4-2-0 Division / 7-5-0 Conference.
Postseason: NFC Second Wild Card (Sixth Seed Overall).
I have the Seahawks at 6-5 after a defeat in Carolina. They have four of their last five at home (the roadie is at the 49ers). My way of saying, if the Seahawks are 6-5 entering Week Thirteen, they're going to get to ten wins, and ten wins coupled with the tiebreakers I envision them having (Green Bay and Dallas both travel to Seattle earlier in the season) get them in. Barely.
One last gasp for these guys.
I don't project it's going to last long.
9. Washington Redskins (NFC East).
Projected Record: 10-6-0 Overall / 3-3-0 Division / 8-4-0 Conference.
Postseason: NFC First Wild Card (Fifth Seed Overall).
Say what you want about "Sir" Alex Smith, but the bottom line is that in his time in Kansas City, he averaged 10 wins a season, made the playoffs four out of five years (winning two division titles), and the year the Chiefs missed the postseason, they missed it on tiebreakers.
Why would you expect anything else, because he goes from one reasonably solid roster to another? I don't. The Redskins know what they're trading for. Given that fanbase's expectations, this probably won't end well, but at least it won't begin as a dumpster fire.
Tier Four: The Division Champions.
8. Cincinnati Bengals (AFC Norris).
Projected Record: 9-7-0 Overall / 4-2-0 Division / 7-5-0 Conference.
Postseason: NFC Norris Champions (Fourth Seed Overall).
I have the Bengals at 9-3, at least two games clear of every other projected AFC Division leader, entering Week Fourteen.
I think we can all guess, how this is going to end.
Your AFC Norris Schedule Run:
7. New Orleans Saints (NFC South).
Projected Record: 9-7-0 Overall / 3-3-0 Division / 7-5-0 Conference.
Postseason: NFC South Champions (Fourth Seed Overall).
Saints earn tiebreaker over Panthers via conference record.
I probably have them a win or two too low, to be honest, and probably a seed or two too low as well, but good teams don't give a damn about their seed. They only care about being a seed, to ensure a game or four in January.
And the Saints? Are a damned good team.
Your NFC South Schedule Run:
6. Detroit Lions (NFC Norris).
Projected Record: 10-6-0 Overall / 3-3-0 Division / 7-5-0 Conference.
Postseason: NFC Norris Champions (Third Seed Overall).
Lions win tiebreaker over the Packers via conference record.
Since I have nothing to add, your NFC Norris Schedule Run:
5. Kansas City Chiefs (AFC West).
Projected Record: 10-6-0 Overall / 5-1-0 Division / 8-4-0 Conference.
Postseason: AFC West Champions (Third Seed Overall).
In the interest of full disclosure, I am a Chiefs Season Ticket Member. (Section 132 Represent!) So if you want to yell that the schedule run was rigged? Feel free; nobody's stopping you.
(Or disagreeing with you.)
But also, in the interest of fairness and honesty, if the "Super" Chargers implode early (as they always do), what other outcome is there for the AFC West? I mean sh*t, we did everything but shove the division into the raiders and "Super" Chargers laps last year. The Chiefs dropped five of six, fell into a three way tie at 6-6 with four weeks left, with the raiders and Chargers coming to Arrowhead, where the Chiefs had lost two straight and three of four. We did everything short of waving the white flag, and no other team could step into the void! (The Chiefs pounded the raiders and Chargers, to effectively clinch the division, with two weeks to play.)
Do you think those people are getting to ten wins? I had to stretch to get them to eight! Do you think the raiders are getting to ten wins? I have them at 5-7 with four to play, and before you note the "yeah, but they can beat the Chiefs at home", do I have to go there? I guess I do.
"Fat" Andy Reid coming off a bye week? Is damned near unbeatable.
(He's won his last four exiting a bye, and is 14-3 career the week after the bye.)
Our bye week falls?
The week before the trip to the Bay.
Until I see evidence that one of these other three pretenders is ready to get serious about challenging for the division, the default is your two time defending champ.
Soon to be three time defending champ.
Your AFC West Schedule Run:
4. Dallas Cowboys (NFC East).
Projected Record: 10-6-0 Overall / 4-2-0 Division / 8-4-0 Conference.
Postseason: NFC East Champions (Second Overall Seed).
Cowboys win tiebreaker over Redskins via divisional record.
And here's where one Week One projection -- Cowboys over Panthers -- altered everything in the NFC.
The Cowboys win gives them the two seed and a bye; keeps the Packers out of the playoffs entirely, hands the NFC South to New Orleans, and knocks the Panthers out of the playoffs entirely.
A Carolina win? Gives the Redskins the NFC East and the two seed (I project the Redskins beat the Panthers in Week Six), the Panthers the NFC South and the three seed, and gets the Packers into the playoffs as the six seed.
My head hurts. Here's your NFC East Schedule Run:
3. New England Patriots (AFC East).
Projected Record: 10-6-0 Overall / 4-2-0 Division / 8-4-0 Conference.
Postseason: AFC East Champions (Second Seed Overall).
Patriots win tiebreaker over Chiefs for second seed via Week Six victory.
I think this is the year New England finally regresses to the mean ... but come on. That division is so f*cking awful 6-10 might win it by two games.
Your AFC East Schedule Run:
2. Tennessee Titans (AFC South).
Projected Record: 11-5-0 Overall / 3-3-0 Division / 8-4-0 Conference.
Postseason: AFC South Champions (First Seed Overall).
I'm probably more stunned than you.
Your AFC South Schedule Run:
1. Los Angeles Rams (NFC West).
Projected Record: 11-5-0 Overall / 4-2-0 Division / 8-4-0 Conference.
Postseason: NFC West Champions (First Seed Overall).
I am not even remotely surprised by this. If anything, I'm stunned the Rams topped out at only eleven wins. To say I'm high on this team, is about as grouse an understatement as noting I went through my 20s drunk, my 30s stoned, and I'm paying for my 20s and 30s in my 40s.
Your NFC West Schedule Run:
Finally ...
Tier Five: The Postseason.
Wild Card Round.
* Saturday, January 5, 2019, 3:30pm CT (ESPN / ABC):
5 Houston Texans 31, at 4 Cincinnati Bengals 21.
You betting on the Bengals to win in the postseason? Because I've been there, done that, and refuse to do it again.
* Saturday, January 5, 2019, 7:30pm CT (NBC):
6 Seattle Seahawks 27, at 3 Detroit Lions 41.
Holy hell, Detroit itself might burn to the ground if this result happens. #riotaway
* Sunday, January 6, 2019, noon CT (FOX):
5 Washington Redskins 13, at 4 New Orleans Saints 34.
It was fun while it lasted, 'Skins.
* Sunday, January 6, 2019, 3:30pm CT (CBS):
6 Jacksonville Jaguars 13, 3 Kansas City Chiefs 23.
Speaking of cities that might burn themselves to the ground because the home football team finally won a home playoff game, my home town everybody! Just please spare Waldo, that's all I ask. I kind of like where I live.
Divisional Round.
* Saturday, January 12, 2019, 3:30pm CT (NBC):
3 Kansas City Chiefs 27, at 2 New England Patriots 20.
If The Sanchize can win a divisional round game in Foxboro? If Joe Freaking Flacco can win a conference championship game in Foxboro? Then Patrick Mahomes "Of the Chiefs" can too, god*mmit.
* Saturday, January 12, 2019, 7:30pm (FOX):
4 New Orleans Saints 38, at 1 Los Angeles Rams 41 (OT).
Your de-facto Super Bowl. And it is going to be great to watch.
* Sunday, January 13, 2019, noon CT (CBS):
5 Houston Texans 38, at 1 Tennessee Titans 31.
Watson! Mariota! Texans! Titans! Nantz! Romo! ONLY ... CBS!!!!!
(And about 35 million viewers drooling over every snap.)
* Sunday, January 13, 2019, 3:30pm CT (FOX):
3 Detroit Lions 14, at 2 Dallas Cowboys 31.
I guess that would avenge the 1991 Divisional Round?
Conference Championship Round.
* Sunday, January 20, 2019, 2pm CT (FOX):
2 Dallas Cowboys 27, at 1 Los Angeles Rams 34.
NFC Champions: 1 Los Angeles Rams.
* Sunday, January 20, 2019, 5:30pm CT (CBS):
5 Houston Texans 30, at 3 Kansas City Chiefs 35.
They're gonna have to rename the Sports Complex "Lake Arrowhead" once I'm done crying.
AFC Champions: 3 Kansas City Chiefs.
Super Bowl LIII.
* Sunday, February 3, 2019, 5:20pm CT (CBS).
1 Los Angeles Rams 34, 3 Kansas City Chiefs 24.
Super Bowl Champions: Los Angeles Rams.
