Thursday, November 26, 2015

week 12: chiefs! bills! the biggest game of the regular season ...

“These days?
Well they’re looking up!
We’ve got so much to say,
We’ve got someone to love!

We’ve got good friends –
They’re so good to us!
So haters can hate,
And fakers can front!

(And) so we try to live?
Like it’s all we’ve got.
‘Cause for all we know?

This …
Could …
Be …
The …

Last night, of our lives!
Gonna chase down our every desire!
We blaze the night!

What if all we’ve been waiting for
All this time?
Reaches such great heights?
(And) gives us just one perfect night?

To say oh!
What a beautiful life!
Oh, what a beautiful life!

Here it comes!
Out of the dark!
We’ve got nothing to fear –
We’ve got nothing but heart!

We can’t just wait here,
To see what it brings;
We’ve got too many hopes!
We’ve got too many dreams!

So we try to live?
Like it’s all we’ve got!
‘Cause for all we know?

This!  Could!  Be!  The!
Last night of our lives!
Gonna chase down our every desire!
We blaze the night!

What if all we’ve been waiting for,
All this time?
Reaches such great heights?
And gives us just one perfect night?

To say oh!
What a beautiful life!
Oh!  What a beautiful life! …”


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In case you missed Part Uno, which was a look at the other contenders for the wildcard slots in the AFC with six weeks to play, you can read it by clicking here.

Part Dos is a look at where our beloved Red and Gold stands, and in an homage to things you people seem to love about this site, I give you a callback to the ages, to prep for Sunday.

Enjoy?

(late 1980s nbc announcer voice) And now, Part Dos of AFC 2015: A Conference In Crisis.

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* The Kansas City … CHIEFS!
Current Record: 5-5 overall / 4-2 conference.
Head to Head Tiebreaker(s) Held: Steelers, Texans.
Head to Head Tiebreaker(s) Lost: none.
Remaining Schedule: vs Bills / at raiders / vs Chargers / at Ravens / vs Browns / vs raiders.

Thoughts: that of every team either in as of today, or within a game of being in as of today, the Chiefs are in the best shape of everyone?  They have ZERO H2H tiebreakers to worry about – barring epic Biblical-style collapses, the two conference losses (denver, Cincy) are winning their divisions.  

(And -- psst! -- dirty little secret (aka all the ***'s in Part Uno) time: the Chiefs hold tiebreaker over denver, believe it or not, via conference record … and that isn’t likely to change.  The West is not won yet by those classless jackasses, if we can catch them.  Not by a long shot.  (Pause).  Now might be the time to turn into Patriots, Bengals, Steelers, and (gulp) raiders fans, to say nothing of Chargers fans, as those five teams make up satan's squads final six contests …)

Let that sink in – every single non-division leading AFC team the Chiefs have faced?  They’ve beat!

Furthermore, let’s just address the Captain Oats in the room, shall we?  Damned near EVERY team they have left to fear for a playoff berth? 

They play!

Beginning Sunday, against the Bills.

--------------------

Because Sunday, as noted a whole post (and an hour) ago, is THE biggest non-playoff game of the “Fat” Andy Reid era.

Sunday will go a damned long way towards determining, if this is an Era … or an Error.

Let’s play “peek-a-boo” for a minute, kids.  Let’s say the Chiefs win Sunday.  They’d be 6-5, 5-2 conference, with five to play.

Let’s also just acknowledge the Captain Oats in the room, and state the obvious: they’re not losing to San Diego at home, and they’re not losing to Cleveland at home, even if it's Chase Daniel under center.  (And for what it's worth?  I truly believe Aaron Murray would roll Cleveland 33-3.)  

I also think it's highly probable the Chiefs will win at least one of their other three remaining contests: at Baltimore, and home / away against oakland.

That sets 9-7 overall / 8-4 conference, as the floor.  9-7 / 8-4 is the WORST CASE SCENARIO, with a victory on Sunday.

(With 11-5 / 10-2 your previously established ceiling that – ssshhhh! – will likely top the donkeys, to win the division.)

What does a Chiefs team at 9-7 overall, 8-4 in the conference, with head to head tiebreakers over Buffalo, Pittsburgh, and Houston (and probably) oakland mean?

It means the following:

* Buffalo (at 5-6) would have to win out to make the playoffs ahead of Kansas City.  They would HAVE to finish ahead, based on Head to Head Victory.  It’s doable … but highly unlikely.  * Cough Roadie at Philly Cough *.  * Cough Facing Dallas Cough *.  * Cough Kirk Cousins On the Road Cough *.  * Cough ("the voice of reason" voice) ITS BUFFALO! Cough *.

* New York (likely 6-5 after Sunday) could only lose once in the last five weeks, to finish ahead of Kansas City in the standings.  They would HAVE to finish ahead, based on Conference Record.  Given they travel to Dallas, “The Ralph” (our personal house of horrors) and host the Patriots – to say nothing of facing the Giants – that’s highly unlikely.

* Houston (coin flip Sunday – 5-6 or 6-5), would either have to win out, or lose only once, to finish ahead of Kansas City.  (If they beat the Saints, they have one to play with.  If the Saints win, they'd have to win out.)  They would HAVE to finish ahead of the Chiefs in the standings, based on Head to Head Victory.  They have to travel to Buffalo to open December, have to travel to Indy in the middle of December, and the Patriots are the game in between.  Good luck with that.

* Pittsburgh (likely 6-5 after Sunday) would have to lose only once more, to finish ahead of Kansas City.  They would HAVE to finish ahead in the standings, based on Head to Head Victory.  Given that they still have to go to Cincy, host denver, host Indy, AND visit Crab Cake City, that’s HIGHLY unlikely to occur.

And, if you want to include the 4-6 squads?  Then do it!  Here's what they would have to do, to finish ahead of Kansas City:

* oakland’s only loss could be to Green Bay.  ANY other defeat, they’d be done, via (pick one) conference or divisional record.  (Or head-to-head, as well; if the Chiefs simply split with them, they’re toast.)

* Miami’s only loss could be to the Giants.  Any other defeat, they’d be done, via conference record.

* Jacksonville’s only loss could be to either the Falcons or Saints.  Any other defeat, they’d be done, via conference record.  (Or divisional record, if they’re tied with Houston or Indy, at 8-8 or 9-7.)

Honestly folks, there’s only one thing left to say.

If the Chiefs win Sunday?

It will take nothing short of catastrophic injuries and/or physical calamities of Biblical proportions, to keep them out of the playoffs.

Considering the best player on the squad on offense, already suffered the catastrophic injury, and the root-like-hell-for-him player on defense has emerged victorious against the physical calamity?

I like the Chiefs chances to become only the second team ever to open 1-5 (or worse) and make the playoffs, if their reality is 6-5, come 3:30pm CT on Sunday, November 29th.

--------------------

But first, the Chiefs have to make THEIR reality?

OUR reality.

Which is where WE come into the calculation.


OUR team?  OUR town?

Needs US, on Sunday, like they rarely have before.

Which means, one final Captain Oats in the room, has to be addressed, and it is this:

Are YOU up to the challenge that awaits The Kingdom, come high noon on Sunday?

More to the point ... let me ask you a question.

(Pause).

That I'm going to wait a moment or paragraph or page or six, to pose.

--------------------

Because I most assuredly am, up to the challenge.

I've been quiet all season folks.  I’ve given things time to play out on their own. 

And this?  So far? 

It ain’t working for me.

It's time to start acting, like Stevo is supposed to act, when it comes to the Red and Gold.


--------------------

I ask, I request, I beg, I plead, I implore, each and every person reading this who considers themselves in any way, shape, or form, to be not just a Chiefs fan, but a die-hard Chiefs fan, to find a way to get your ass not just planted in that stadium come Noon CT on Sunday … but find a way to get your ass out there early enough, to be “properly medicated”, for the three-hour stress-test on tap.

(Having endured one of those -- no, really, for real, an actual stress-test -- less than a month ago?  Get ready.  You have NO idea what you're in for.)

This team needs US.  Not me, not you – US!  

I don’t give a sh*t who you are – if you need a place to tailgate?  I’ll save you a spot.  We welcome ANYONE who either (a) loves football or ... well hell, that's the only reason you need.  We have enough non-Chiefs fans most weeks, to prove that point.

But if you love the Chiefs?  This team -- OUR team! -- NEEDS you on Sunday!

Because Sunday?  Is THE defining game of the “Fat” Andy Reid era.  It is THE defining game of the 2015 season.

Sunday?  May damned well be the day you look your child, your grandchild, your great grandchild in the eye, and note someday that “it was the day the Chiefs assumed their rightful position, as the best team the National Football League has to offer”!

Sunday?  Is a day you do NOT want to miss.  Because (may God grant) win, (may God forbid) lose, or (may the late, great Bert Convy decide) draw?

Sunday, quite probably, defines a season. 

And quite possibly, a legacy, for this regime.

Because ...

--------------------

(julie chen voice) But first!

(tony dumas voice) Your flight plans, sir!

The current menu for Sunday is various people’s interpretations on chili, with all the fixins, and a hot dog / brat / sausage assortment on the grill to boot, if need be.  Ryan and Ron will have the Gates (the late, great mr. william grigsby voice) Prrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrresidential Platter for you.  There will be various side dishes, assorted desserts, and only God knows what else.

I have secured the early-in pass.  The Bus departs no later than 6:30am.  Currently there are nine riding out, with another eight headed up from Springfield, and other assorted friends arriving after the gates open.

Also, after conversing with "Rufus” (aka “my highly placed source with intricate knowledge of the Truman Sports Complex parking situation”), I feel very safe in saying we will be in our spot no later than 7am. 

Provided the bastardos running Gate Seven manage to open it on time. 

(“Rufus” promised he’d remedy the delay from the Steelers game.  I have no reason to doubt “Rufus”.  He’s always been right … so far.  Up to and including predicting exactly what would happen for denver.)

The first song on “Mixology: The Bills” to play?  WILL be “Penny Lover”.  The last song to play, nine hours later?  (Pause).  Had damned well better be "Dancing On the Ceiling".  

Everything that plays in between?  Is up to you.  Send in your requests; I'll add it to Mixology.

A great friend is coming in from Ohio for this one.  Usually we have to head his way (he’s a Colts season ticket holder).  “Cowboy Ron” and his group are showing up in the hopes we’ll get another great tailgate in Indy, come the second weekend in January.  (That, and his family is here.  Priorities people.  Priorities.)

Our regular crew is all-in.  Nobody’s missing this, save for Chris.  She’s got a damned good excuse – Puerto Rico with one awesome gentleman she’s met, and hopes to settle down with.  We’re all rooting for this, chica.

Having said that?  I wouldn’t be surprised in the least, if I get a “is there still a spot saved?” text come 9:30am on Sunday, out of her.  It would be a total Chris move to come home a week early, because OUR team needs every damned bit of support, encouragement, and love, we can offer them.

My brother is coming out, hopefully bringing My Special Little Guy with him.  (Update: he’s not … at least as of now.  “Unca Teve” may have to get involved here.  Priorities, brother.  Priorities.)

Just like oakland in six weeks is my birthday weekend?  This one is Drew’s.  Come out and celebrate appropriately.  (AKA "bring beer.  Lots and lots of beer!")

Our buddy Neeck will be there.  Quiet and stoic?  He is not.  He’s not Jerry.  But he is boisterous and loud, as each and every godd*mned last one of us, HAS to be.

(Pause).

Wait – I object to an offensive word, in that previous sentence.  I strongly object to it.

But he is boisterous and loud, as each and every godd*mned last one of us?

NEEDS to be!

--------------------

The Chiefs are selling their remaining tickets for $25 on Friday.  There aren’t many left – this game, like all but one prior to this for the last 24 years, will be an official sellout.  But if you want a cheapie?  Email / text / call / IM me; I’ll forward you the Season Ticket Member email with the offer code.

Tickets on Stubhub are hawking right now for even lower -- $22. 

Because seriously people -- is buying Junior a 12th Lego set to shove under the tree, really a higher priority than watching one of the most epic turnarounds in League history, unfold in front of your eyes?

I say no.  I say hell no.  I say f*ck no!

See you Sunday!  No excuses!  Be loud!  Be damned loud!  Pound that seat back in front of you into submission!  Scream until it physically hurts to open your mouth ... and then get even louder!  This is our time!  Come be a part of it!

Because Sunday?  We have our chance, to answer the question that needs to be answered.

And that question is ...

--------------------

I choose to close with this.

Twenty five years ago, in the third year of the Carl and Marty Era, the Buffalo Bills rolled into town.  It is a day, it is a night, that no Chiefs fan over the age of thirty will ever forget.  Monday, October 6, 1991.

Because it is the day the Kansas City Chiefs -- and the Arrowhead Experience -- introduced themselves to the nation.  It is the day the Chiefs arrived as a credible, legitimate force in the National ... Football League, after twenty years roaming the desert.

By the time that night was over, there was no doubt this team was an ascending power.  They trottled a 5-0 Buffalo team that was the defending AFC Champions 33-6.  The score could have been 70-6, the Chiefs so thoroughly gave the Bills the business that night. 


Twenty five years later, in the third year of the Dorsey and "Fat" Andy Era, the Buffalo Bills roll into town.

Folks?

It's time to ask the Captain Oats in the room.

--------------------

What if all we've been waiting for, all this time?
Reaches such great heights?
And gives us just one perfect night?

--------------------

Monday, October 6, 1991, is as perfect of a night as any Chiefs fan under the age of forty has ever experienced.  

Chiefs fans?  It's time for something greater.

Because we in this amazing, awe-inspiring metropolitan area we call home know, what greatness is.

We saw our "perfect night".

Sunday, November 1, 2015.

Our Royals gave us that perfect night.  I still cannot type anything about that team, without immediately crying.  Christ, I've been typing up my thoughts on this postseason for the better part of six weeks now, and I still can't compose my emotions into readable thought yet.

I can tell you my reaction when it was over -- I literally dropped to my knees, and cried for ten straight minutes.  I could not stop crying.  And I gotta admit, in minute eleven, when Gus walked through the door, tears streaming down his face?  It just hit me even more.  

Uncontrolled emotion.  Unexplainable love.  Indefensible passion.  That's the only reaction any fan could have, for the 2015 Kansas City Royals.

That's how I used to react to the 1995 Chiefs.  The 1999 Chiefs.  The 2006 Chiefs.  Even the 2013 Chiefs.

Those squads?  All phonies.  All frauds.  All imposters who either (a) couldn't reach the postseason, or (b) crapped out against the ponies once they got there.

(Please, spare me the "what about 1993, or 1997, or 2003?  1993 hit its ceiling, as did 2003.  And the 1997 squad would have won the Super Bowl, if instant replay had been in existence ... or if, you know, satan's squad hadn't broken every salary cap rule the League has in place, to pay terrell davis under the table, to keep the team together.  (Pause).  What?  (Pause).  You're damned right it p*sses me off my squad didn't think of doing that first, for Neil Smith!)

Chiefs fans?

What if this, what if two thousand and f*cking fifteen, what if THIS is the team we've been waiting for all this time?

What if THIS is the team, that reaches such great heights?

What if THIS is the team, that gives us just ONE perfect night?

What if THIS is finally the Chiefs team, that fulfills every hope and desire, and blazes the night?

What if THIS is finally the Chiefs team, that makes us scream "oh!  What a beautiful life!"

If THIS Chiefs team, is to be that team?

Sunday is must-win.

Please, do your part.  It's time to stand folks.  Scream, shout.  It's time to turn the seatbacks in the lower deck black, and the seatbacks in the upper deck blue.  (Come on -- not even I'm dumb enough to think folks in Club Level give enough of a sh*t, to turn their seatbacks bright red, with the blood their hands are releasing from pounding that damned hard.)

It's time to turn the greatest home field advantage in professional sports, into what it is -- THE greatest home field advantage in professional sports.

It's time to take OUR perfect night.

(Or at least pleasant afternoon).

* at Chiefs 13, Bills (+6) 9.

Please -- let me see you Sunday!

the afc, with six weeks to go ...

“Let’s all pack up, and move this year.
Let’s slip the liars, and disappear.
Leave memories?  For auctioneers.
And those just standing still.

They’ll miss the taste of wanting you;
Call out your name like I still do!
But they haven’t said?  A word that’s true!
And they only?  Hold you down.

And this heartbreak world,
Of just imagine?
With tired talk
Of better days?

In this heartbreak world,
Where nothing matters?

Come on – let’s make this dream
That’s barely half awake?

Come true! …”


--------------------

Or, to put things more “Stevo Style”:

"Give the Royals this -- they NEVER give up.  They NEVER quit!  Unlike that f*cking failure of a franchise across the parking lot!" -- me, Monday, October 12, 2015.

--------------------

Almost exactly twenty four hours before I dropped that comment (said while watching the eighth inning rally to force Game Five against the Astros), the Chiefs had yet again found a way to snatch defeat out of the jaws of victory.  

Specifically, they'd blown a two touchdown lead in the fourth quarter, for the second straight home game.  

Even more specifically, for the second straight home game?  The Chiefs gave up the winning points inside of a minute to play, due to questionable (and arguably fireable) mistakes by "Fat" Andy Reid that directly cost his team the victory.  (The "what in the world are you thinking" handoff to 25 against denver; the "what in the f*cking bluest of blue f*cking hells are you thinking?!?!?!?!" decision to not use his timeouts against the Bears.)

Even more damning than the previous collapse against the denver broncos?  Is that this one occurred against the Chicago Bears, a team that entered at 1-3, probably should have been 0-4 (they barely beat the oakland raiders in Week Four, 22-20), and had just set a NFL record the prior week by not only failing to cross the Seahawks 43 yard line at any point of their 26-0 "assume the position because we're taking the business!" defeat to the Seattle Seahawks?

Every single possession ended in a punt!  Ten possessions, ten punts!  And not a single play run in field goal range, even at fake mile high!

Somehow, that team rolls into Arrowhead, drops two touchdowns on the Chiefs in the last four minutes of the game, and wins when "Fat" Andy's most recent "seriously, is this guy mentally retarded" brain fart -- attempting a 65 yard field goal into the wind! -- predictably and epically failed.

Oh, and did I mention, every sane, rational person assumed that the season was over not only because the Chiefs were 1-4, L4 ... but the franchise, Jamaal Charles, was carted off the field early in the second half, his season and (possibly) his career, over.

Halloween was still three weeks away, yet for all intents and purposes, the Chiefs season was over.  

Pretty much before it began.

--------------------

And now, here we sit, three weeks after Halloween, and the season is not only "not over", it's "so f*cking on" that even I am in utter shock and awe, at how quickly things turned around.  Six weeks ago the Chiefs looked hopeless.  Now, every Chiefs fan has hope.  And with good reason.

Consider the opportunity the Chiefs have in front of them this weekend.  And folks?  Hang on, we barely have a year of the lovable ol' guy left to enjoy him, so peoples and peepettes?  Vice President Biden.

(vice president biden voice) Folks!  The Chiefs opportunity this weekend is huge!  A three letter word -- huge!  H U G E Huge!

Thank you sir.  You?  I'll miss.  Joe?  Stand up Joe, let 'em see you!  

--------------------

In all seriousness, you can make a legitimate argument this week's game against the Bills is the defining moment of the "Fat" Andy Reid era.  Will it be an era, or an error?  I'd argue we're gonna learn a lot about what 2016, 2017, and 2018 are going to look like, come 3:30pm CT on November 29th.

To say nothing of what the ending to 2015 entails.

The Chiefs currently occupy the second wildcard slot / last team in position, at 5-5.  They are 4-2 in the conference, which is not only huge for tiebreaker purposes, but it means anyone who didn't learn to add via Common Core can deduce every game remaining for the Chiefs, is against a conference foe.  Which, again, leads a person with an IQ north of room temperature to conclude that the Chiefs are going to wind up holding that tiebreaker, because in order to make the playoffs, they have to win more conference games.

There currently are three teams tied with the Chiefs at 5-5 for the "transfer slot", to use a NASCAR phrase.  The Jets are 5-5.  The Texans are 5-5.  And the Bills are 5-5.  And since I think that they're very vulnerable, the only team ahead of the Chiefs in the wildcard race, the Steelers, are 6-4.

There also are three teams that sit a game behind the Chiefs at 4-6, one of whom will more than get their crack at the Red and Gold down the stretch -- the raiders, the Jaguars, and the Dolphins. 

(I should note, the Ravens at 3-7 are very much alive, but they need to win out -- or take five of six, with the loss coming to Seattle -- to have any chance.  We’ll deal with that, when we get to the Steelers portion of this post.)

So let's break this down, one at a time ...

--------------------

(julie chen voice) But first!

There are three playoff slots in play, if we're being honest*.  You not only have both wildcard slots up for grabs, but some f*cked up and flawed team is going to win the AFC South and host one of these other teams in a playoff game.

It's time to figure out who, exactly, those three teams will be.

We'll go in reverse order of the contenders, beginning with …

--------------------

(*: this is an abject bullsh*t lie.  There are four in play, if New England and Kansas City simply (coach asshat voice) “Do your job!  Just do your job, and we will win this game!”, on Sunday.)

--------------------

* The Miami Dolphins.
Current Record: 4-6 overall / 2-5 conference.
Head to Head Tiebreaker(s) Held: Texans.
Head to Head Tiebreaker(s) Lost: Jaguars, Bills, Jets.
Remaining Schedule: at Jets / vs Ravens / vs Giants (MNF) / at Chargers / vs Colts / vs Patriots.

Thoughts: if they lose Sunday, it's over.  The Bills already swept Miami, the Jets won the first contest, and the 'Fins still have three division leaders left on the home schedule.  If they lose yet another tiebreaker for good, it's over.

Furthermore, let's just address the Captain Oats in the room, shall we?  The Dolphins have beaten the 'Skins (season opener), the Eagles (with The Sanchize under center), the Titans (tied for the worst record in football), and the Texans (aka "The Outlier Victory").  They've beaten NOBODY with a winning record!  

Hell, they not only haven't beaten anyone with a better than 22.46% chance of playing after January 3rd, they've been tuned by every decent team on the schedule!  The Patriots beat them by 30.  The Bills swept them, winning by 16 and 27.  The Jets blew them out so badly that the Dolphins promptly sh*t canned their head coach the following day.  The Cowboys entered last week having lost seven in a row.  They destroyed Miami in Miami. 

We all know how this is going to play out.  And it will not be pretty for the Miami Mammals.

Gut Feeling on Final Standing: 5-11, out of the playoffs.  The win will be against the San Diego "Super" Chargers ... in what might be the final professional football game played in San Diego.

--------------------

* The Jacksonville Jaguars.
Current Record: 4-6 overall / 4-4 conference.
Head to Head Tiebreaker(s) Held: Dolphins, Bills.
Head to Head Tiebreaker(s) Lost: Colts, Texans, Jets.
Remaining Schedule: vs Chargers / at Titans / vs Colts / vs Falcons / at Saints / at Texans.

Thoughts: am I certifiably insane ... or just semi-retarded?  Because I see a very, very, very manageable path to 9-7 in there -- if not 10-6.  They'll be favored in three of the next four, and the one they're likely to be a dog in (Indy at home) is not only very winnable, I think they will win that game, irregardless of who is under center for the Colts.

Furthermore, let's just address the Captain Oats in the room, shall we?  This is one of two teams (along with the Chiefs) fighting for a playoff berth, that keeps getting demonstratively better every week.  They've won 3 out of 4, with their only loss being a justifiable five point defeat at the Fake Meadowlands to a (probably) better Jets team.  Blake Bortles has made enormous strides this year.  The defense is capable of holding any team to 17 or less.  They're well coached, well-schemed, well-prepared every week.  What's not to like?

Gut Feeling on Final Standing: 8-8, in the clusterf*ck for the six seed.  But I can absolutely be talked into 9-7, AFC South Champions.  

--------------------

* The oakland raiders.
Current Record: 4-6 overall / 4-3 conference.
Head to Head Tiebreaker(s) Held: Jets.
Head to Head Tiebreaker(s) Lost: Steelers.
Remaining Schedule: at Titans / vs Chiefs / at broncos / vs Packers / vs Chargers / at Chiefs.

Thoughts: they are going to look back at last week's choke job in Detroit, and need to vomit, when this season is over, because that's the defeat that doomed them.

Furthermore, let's just address the Captain Oats in the room, shall we?  Does anyone actually think the oakland raiders can close 5-1, with the only loss being to the Packers (since that's the only one they can, in theory, afford to lose)?  This is a team that just p*ssed away a lead to the Lions, has beaten nobody with a record above .500, has been throttled at home by 20 (Cincinnati) and nearly 20 (Minnesota), and is entering Sunday's roadie on a three game losing streak.

Gut Feeling on Final Standing: 7-9, out of the playoffs.  They'll upset denver**, and beat Tennessee and San Diego.

--------------------

(**: that projected upset -- namely, whether or not it occurs -- will decide who wins the AFC West.  On December 13?  We are ALL raiders!)

--------------------

* The New York Jets.
Current Record: 5-5 overall / 4-4 conference.
Head to Head Tiebreaker(s) Held: Colts, Dolphins, Jaguars.
Head to Head Tiebreaker(s) Lost: Bills, Texans, raiders.
Remaining Schedule: vs Dolphins / at Giants / vs Titans / at Cowboys (Sat) / vs Patriots / at Bills.

Thoughts: they're in deep, deep trouble.  That final three, my God.  Do you see a win in any of those three?  Because I don't.  They're not beating the Patriots, unless the Pats have nothing to play for and rest the starters.  And news flash for ya non-Jets fans out there: if you think Bill Belichick is going to lay down for the Jets?  You don't know football.

Furthermore, let's just address the Captain Oats in the room, shall we?  Does anyone really think Ryan Fitzpatrick is going to lead this team to a 4-2 finish (or 5-1, given their tiebreaker issues) to grab one of the two wildcard berths?  Ryan Fitzpatrick, who just had surgery ten days ago, has already bombed out as the Bills QB, and who was so atrocious in Houston that Bill O'Brien opted for Ryan Mallett over him, and last time I checked, Ryan Mallett is out of the league and probably not getting an invite back.

Gut Feeling on Final Standing: 7-9, out of the playoffs.  They’ll get upset by Tennessee, to kick off a four game losing streak, to end the season.

--------------------

* The Houston Texans.
Current Record: 5-5 overall / 4-3 conference.
Head to Head Tiebreaker(s) Held: Jaguars, Jets.
Head to Head Tiebreaker(s) Lost: Chiefs, Dolphins.
Remaining Schedule: vs Saints / at Bills / vs Patriots / at Colts / at Titans / vs Jaguars.

Thoughts: where’s the layup?  They face five squads battling for the postseason lives in their last six – all but the Titans, who even in the God-awful AFC South, are drawing dead with six to play.  (I know, I know – they’re as close to first place as the Chiefs are … but the Titans are 0-6 in the conference.  They’re done.)

Furthermore, let’s just address the Captain Oats in the room, shall we?  Does anyone really think Brian Hoyer is going to lead this team to a 4-2 / 5-1 finish to grab one of the two wildcard berths (via 4-2) or the AFC South (via 5-1)?  Brian Hoyer, who was benched in the opener for a dude no longer in the League (Ryan Mallett), who couldn’t beat out “insert sh*tty ass QB here” in Cleveland for the starters gig, and hasn’t beaten a team with a winning record since Noah was mocked for building a boat, because nobody on Earth knew what the hell this thing called “rain” was.  (Note: that last item might be a slight exaggeration.)

Gut Feeling on Final Standing: 7-9, out of the playoffs.  They'll beat the Saints and Titans.  I think.

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* The Indianapolis Colts.
Current Record: 5-5 overall / 4-3 conference.
Head to Head Tiebreaker(s) Held: Texans, Jaguars.
Head to Head Tiebreaker(s) Lost: Bills, Jets.
Remaining Schedule: vs Bucs / at Steelers (NBC) / at Jaguars / vs Texans / at Dolphins / vs Titans.

Thoughts: provided they take care of business at home, the Colts are in decent shape to at least grab one of the two wildcard slots.  They have a decent conference record, currently own every tiebreaker needed to win the South, and if they split with Jacksonville and Houston down the stretch, they'll probably win the division by at least a game, if not three.

Furthermore, let's just address the Captain Oats in the room, shall we?  If there's one place no team wants to travel for the wildcard round, it's Indy, right?  I mean, I know a good number of you reading this have attended a Chiefs/ Colts playoff game in that place, be it in 2006 or 2013.  That stadium?  Is a freaking nuthouse.  As a Chiefs fan, I don't want any part of Indianapolis -- anywhere, anytime, anyplace.  They've already used us as their own personal urinal four painful times in the last twenty years (1995, 2003, 2006, 2013), and if you want to get technical, they've ended five different Chiefs seasons in that time frame (the Week Sixteen 1996 victory cost the Chiefs the playoffs).  

I really have no desire to spend the first weekend of my 39th year of existence having to travel to that lunatic asylum. 

I honestly think I'd prefer to open in denver.  I'll grant you, the odds of my being arrested at fake mile high are astronomical.  I hate those assholes disguised as fans so damned much -- one in particular -- that I highly doubt I could control my emotions.  But at least the Chiefs can beat the donkeys.  They're oh for my lifetime, at beating Indy when it counts.

If the Chiefs are going to exercise only one playoff demon this year?  Let it be denver.

Gut Feeling on Final Standing: 9-7, AFC South Champions.

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* The Buffalo Bills.
Current Record: 5-5 overall / 5-4 conference.
Head to Head Tiebreaker(s) Held: Colts, Dolphins, Jets.
Head to Head Tiebreaker(s) Lost: Jaguars.
Remaining Schedule: at Chiefs / vs Texans / at Eagles / at Redskins / vs Cowboys / vs Jets.

Thoughts: who the hell did this squad p*ss off royally in the League office, to get a schedule like their second half?  Five out of six on the road?  And those five are (in order) at Jets (W) / at Patriots (L) / at Chiefs / at Eagles / at Redskins, every single squad of which is at least within a game of owning a postseason berth with six to play?

Furthermore, let’s just address the Captain Oats in the room, shall we?  They’ve played ONE non-con game so far (a loss to the Giants to open October).  Even if they sweep all three conference games remaining (and they damned well could), they’re still looking at 8-4 as a conference ceiling.  Unless they win out?  They’re probably drawing dead for the five seed, and the privilege of rolling whoever wins the AFC South 45-13 to open the playoffs at 3:30pm CT on January 9th.  Which means their ceiling is what, opening at denver to close down Wild Card Weekend?

Gut Feeling on Final Standing: 8-8, in the clusterf*ck for the six seed.  They’ll beat the Texans, the ‘Skins, and the Jets. 

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* The Pittsburgh Steelers.
Current Record: 6-4 overall / 3-4 conference.
Head to Head Tiebreaker(s) Held: raiders.
Head to Head Tiebreaker(s) Lost: Chiefs.
Remaining Schedule: at Seahawks (FOX) / vs Colts (NBC) / at Bengals / vs broncos (CBS) / at Ravens (NBC) / at Browns.

Thoughts: that of every team either in as of today, or within a game of being in as of today, the Steelers are in the worst shape of everyone?  Despite having the best record of the contenders at this point?  Their only tiebreaker they have is over oakland, and if there’s a five or six way clusterf*ck at .500 for the six seed, will that one actually matter?

Furthermore, let’s just address the Captain Oats in the room, shall we?  The counter-balance to the previous paragraph is that NO team benefits more from Joe Flacco’s season-ending injury than the Steelers.  Here’s what the Ravens had left: at Browns (ESPN) / at Dolphins / vs Seahawks (NBC) / vs Chiefs / vs Steelers (NBC) / at Bengals. 

The way the Ravens had been going?  I absolutely could have seen them entering that Bengals game at 8-7 (they’re currently 3-7), on a six game winning streak, facing a “win and you’re in” situation against a Bengals team with nothing to play for.

Look at that remaining schedule for Pittsburgh.  You find me a layup win in there.  Four teams either currently in, or within a game of being in.  All three divisional road games, plus a roadie this week to the two time defending NFC Champs.

If the Steelers get in?  They’ll not only have MORE than earned it?  They will be the team, NO sane team will want to face.

Because if they can go 4-2 or better against this stretch run?

They’re capable of beating anyone.

Gut Feeling on Final Standing: 8-8, in the clusterf*ck for the six seed.  They'll win the two at home, lose all four on the road.

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That's a look at the non-Chiefs contenders.  My gut reaction says the Colts will win the South.  The Jags, Bills,and Steelers will all wind up 8-8 (although I really want to go back and change Jacksonville to 9-7, and let the tiebreakers figure out who wins the South and who gets the six between them and Indy, the more I think about it.)  The raiders, Texans, and Jets will all look back at indefensible losses (to, respectively, the Lions, Dolphins, and Titans) as the reason they finish one back at 7-9.

And that leaves one contender for those three spots in the AFC Postseason Field ***, to determine the outcome for.

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(***: again, an abject bullsh*t lie.  The donkeys still have the Pats, Bengals, and raiders at home, and the Steelers on the road.  The AFC West is far, far, far, from over.  And every fan of satan’s squad?  Knows it.)

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Coming up in Part Dos ... to be posted about an hour from now ... a look at the last contender, and something this site hasn't seen in well over a year.

Happy Turkey Day everybody!

week twelve picks

The Statisticals. Last Week SU: 8-6-0. Season to Date SU: 98-62-1. Last Week ATS: 7-7-0. Season to Date ATS: 75-80-6. Last Week Upset / ...