"Now it's morning,
And the phone rings.
You say you've gotta get your things together;
You just gotta leave, before you change your mind.
But if you knew
What I was thinking girl?
I'd turn around!
If you'd just ask me one more time ...
Don't fall in love with a dreamer!
'Cause he'll always take you in.
Just when you think you've really changed him?
He'll leave you again!
Don't fall in love with a dreamer!
'Cause he'll break you every time!
So put out the light, and just hold on --
Until we say goodbye! ..."
-- "Don't Fall In Love With a Dreamer" by Kenny Rogers and Kim Carnes. God bless, losing Kenny was a blow, in a year full of them so far ...
--------------------
So, to my KC readers, how are you loving this shelter in place crap?
Personally, I hate it. I may be biased given where I live (I live in this awesome part of Kansas City known as Waldo, for those reading this that aren't familiar with Kansas City), but it's beyond depressing to see The Well has removed the tents ... and nobody's on the rooftop. To see that the Saturday market at Border Star is still open ... but all the sh*t that is usually sold that makes it so worth the trip a few Saturday's a month, isn't available.
It sucks to miss out on $2 margarita night at Chelly's every Monday. $6 burger night at my home away from home (The Well) on Tuesday * . Cheap taco night at Walsh's every Wednesday. Trivia nights at Lew's.
You can't pick a day to enjoy lunch at Tasso's. (The gyro is to kill for.) Or pick a night to enjoy dinner at Waldo Thai Place. (I think it's overpriced -- two solid glasses of pinot plus dinner sets me back fifty solid dollars just for me ... but have been told by chicas with far more competency at determining what a quality dinner costs, that getting out at pushing a (puff daddy voice) benjamin on a date, isn't unreasonable. Probably explains why I'm 43 and woke up alone this morning.)
I hate missing happy hour at Patrick's Bar and No Grill. I literally don't know what to do without my ultimate skillet this morning from Neighborhood Cafe. Hell, this is one of the two times out of the year I'll at least give thought to attending Mass ... only Christ the King is shut down, during Lent for crying out loud.
At least we still have Max's open for business as usual, unchanged and unaffected by all this panic ... but even I can eat a tenderloin only so many times a week.
And as if all the local restaurants, bars and grills that make this part of town so incredible being all but closed isn't craptacular enough, in the last three months, we've lost three shopping destinations / institutions as well -- not to this damnable virus, but lost as in "dead". Dave Smith the Lamp Maker, closed. The Big Lots on Wornall, shut down with pretty much no notice. And the hidden gem a lil' across the state line, the hidden Macy's in Prairie Village nobody seemed to know was there for fifty plus years, is gone-zo now to boot.
Needless to say, my biggest fear, is that Waldo may never recover from this, if it goes on another two months.
I pray that, as I so often am, that I am one hundred percent wrong, in my thoughts on that.
Because having said and noted that?
Glad you asked.
--------------------
(*: back in November, when dad had his latest (and God willing, last) "cardiac event", I took my mom to The Well for lunch on that first day. She demanded I take her back the next day, because "that burger was incredible". I may suck at a lot in life, but I know how to pick a bar worth being a regular at. Especially if food is involved. #barleys #lategreatzigandmacs #twisters #dirtybird #thewell #dailydouble)
--------------------
Every year, I post my NFL Predictions on this site. Since 2008 (when this site was launched), you can go back and review what my thoughts were entering the season. And most years since 2008, you get my weekly NFL predictions as well. (Because (fidelity ad guy voice) why not.)
This past NFL season saw something you rarely if ever see out of me: competency. Solid prognosticating. Thirty nine games over .500 in the regular season straight up. Twelve games above .500 against the spread.
Even in the playoffs, which if we're being honest here is a total crapshoot, I went one game above .500 straight up, and went .500 against the spread. (Texans / Bills was a push.)
Picking the Chiefs, I went 14-5-0 straight up. I went 13-6-0 against the spread. (The one game difference was the game in Detroit back in Week Four.)
Meaning, that for likely the first time in the twelve years I've been making NFL picks on this site, you not only would have earned money simply betting my hunches ... but had you simply wagered a decent amount on my Chiefs beliefs, you'd have broken your bookie. (Or at least shown him a level of love OJ Simpson never once failed, to show Nicole.)
--------------------
But as impressed as I am by my rare display of intelligence (at least weekly this past season) ... I am drop dead on the floor stunned, at my vision when it came to the season long predictions finalized way back on the day this past Chiefs season began.
(Here is your link to the final of the five full season predictions posts; you can access the previous four, at the top of that post.)
I may not believe in -- let alone practice -- much, when it comes to ethics and morality. But I do try to believe in accountability. And so, let's hold me accountable, for what I said would happen, seven months ago, shall we?
Let's begin with the bad and the ugly ... because for once?
There ain't much to report.
--------------------
Here's part of what I mean by "stunning results", even when it's in the "f*ck up and failure" file -- out of 32 teams, 8 of them, my predicted final record was off by three or more games.
That's not surprising, to be frank and honest. But of those eight squads? Three of them I picked to win ten or more games ... which all three did ... and I still was off by three games in each case!
So let's start with the predicted divisional finishes that I whiffed on by two or more spots. (Meaning, I picked them last and finished at least second, or vice versa ... or I picked them first, and they finished third or worse, or vice versa.)
There were only five of these squads, and none of them finished more than two off my projection. (So no "picked to finish last, and they won the division ... or picked to win the division, and they finished in the basement" flame-outs. That's bueno.) And those five are ...
* AFC East: none. In fact, I got the AFC East order of finish 100% correct.
(We'll get to the gloating portion of my picks in the next post, Part Dos ... which will probably be a hell of a lot longer than Part Uno. Note: this almost never, never happens, I'm that crappy of a prognosticator.)
* AFC Norris: Baltimore Ravens. Look it, there is no team in the NFL I was more wrong about than your Baltimore Ravens. I had them finishing third in the AFC Norris ... and to say I whiffed on their final record, well ... keep reading. Again -- there is no team I was more wrong about, than your Baltimore Ravens. Other than possibly ...
* AFC Norris: Cleveland Browns. Like a moron, I bought the hype. I had the Browns winning the AFC Norris at 11-5. They finished third at 6-10.
* AFC South: Tennessee Titans. I picked the Titans to finish dead last ... albeit it at 7-9. The Titans finished in 2nd, at 9-7.
* AFC West: none. A second division I got the order of finish 100% correct. (Stevo patting himself on the back for knowing the division he's lived his life, uuh, living, really well!)
* NFC East: none. I had first and second flip-flopped ... but like with the regular season, I did have the division coming down to the Week Sixteen showdown in Philly.
* NFC Norris: Chicago Bears. I had the Bears winning the division at 10-6. They finished third at 8-8.
* NFC South: none. I bombed on taking a flyer on the "Shane" Falcons ... but they only finished one spot behind my projected finish. (Inside the division, at least.)
* NFC West: Los Angeles Rams. I had them winning the West at 11-5. They finished third at 9-7, the first team out in the NFC.
--------------------
Perhaps even more important than picking a division finish, is picking a final record. (Since after all, most of us reading this wager on the over / under for wins for at least a few squads in (earth wind and fire voice) September.) As noted above, there were eight (out of thirty two) teams I whiffed on the win total for, by at least three games. Five of those eight, I was off by three games exactly. One I was off by four, one I was off by five, and one was, well ... we'll get to them. Let's just say, I was off on them by a lot.
Here are those eight squads ...
* AFC East: none. In many regards, I got no division more accurate in the 2019 season picks. Save for possibly the AFC West.
* AFC Norris: Cleveland Browns. I had the Browns finishing 11-5; they finished five games short of that mark at 6-10.
But let's move on, because there was no team I was more wrong about than ...
* AFC Norris: Baltimore Ravens. I feel like I should haul out a late-night commercial advertisement voice here, because I was wrong by not one! Not two! Not three! Not four!
(Pause).
Sh*t, at this point, I should haul out the classic SNL commercial "Super Colon Blow" voice here ... because five? No, guess again. Six! I'll give you one more chance. Seven!
Not even close.
Because I was nine -- nine! -- games off, from the Ravens final regular season record last season. I said they'd go 5-11. They went 14-2. When you consider that two teams (Titans, Eagles) got in at 9-7 last year? I literally was an entire playoff berth incorrect, on the Ravens record! You could plow that Titans bandwagon through the variance between my predicted wins for the Ravens, and their actual wins ... and still not scrape the garage door tracks on either side, I was so insanely f*cking wrong!
I should be embarrassed by this whiff. When we get to Part Dos, you'll understand why I'm really not that ashamed of it. Because this is the only prediction I truly have reason, to be embarrassed over.
Moving on ...
* AFC South: Jacksonville Jaguars. I had them at 9-7. They finished 6-10. Either way, I had them missing the playoffs, so not a gigantic debacle here.
* AFC West: none. When we get to the next post about what I got right? You'll drool over my knowledge of the Chiefs division, I think.
* NFC East: New York Giants. I had them at 7-9; they finished 4-12. I've predicted worse. (See Ravens, Baltimore.)
* NFC South: Atlanta "Shane" Falcons. Predicted 11-5. Finished 7-9. Whoops.
Finally, as noted farther up above ...
* The NFC Trio (one each from the Norris, South, and West): I had the Green Bay Packers, New Orleans Saints, and San Francisco 49ers all making the playoffs at 10-6.
The good news is, they all did make the playoffs, and all hosted at least one game once they got there!
The problem is, they all finished 13-3, and created one hell of a clusterf*ck to figure out the final NFC seeding (which, to be fair, I predicted said clusterf*ck at 10-6) in real life!
I've said it before, and I'll say it again: ain't we lucky we got 'em? Good Times!!!!!!!
--------------------
So, with the awful divisional picks, and craptacular season records out of the way, there's one last category to explore for f*ckupitude: playoff predictions.
And really, there's three that stand out, from those picks made seven months ago, and man, do they display f*ckupitude (which I guess is now a word?):
* The Cleveland Browns to have AFC Home Field Advantage. And also ...
* The Atlanta "Shane" Falcons to have NFC Home Field Advantage.
Not only did neither team win their division, post a winning record, or gain a playoff berth ... they clearly were not their respective conferences top seeds.
But perhaps my biggest gaffe in the playoff predictions, was taking the Dallas Cowboys to the Super Bowl. In my defense, I can't think of a single credible national (or D/FW local) pundit who thinks the Cowboys lack Super Bowl talent. With Mike McCarthy now in charge on the sideline, they have no excuse to not get there at least once in the next three years.
Because whatever one may think of the Mike McCarthy hire (personal opinion: it's not bad, but Dallas could have -- and should have -- done better ** ), let's ... hell, it's been a few months.
Let's play The Pyramid real quick, to end this post, shall we?
(pre-strokey dick clark voice) ready? Go!
(markie post *** ) Jim Fassel. Mike Martz. "Sur" William Callahan.
(stevo) bad early 2000s coaches!
(markie post) Jim "Corpse" Caldwell. Lovie Smith.
(stevo) god awful black coaches!
(markie post) No. Well, yes, but ... Dan Quinn. gary "krap of" kubiak. Jeff "500" Fisher!
(stevo) worthless white coaches!
(markie post) Uuh ... John Fox. Sean Payton. "Chucky". Tom Coughlin. Mike Holmgren. Mike McCarthy.
(stevo) competent white coaches!
(markie post) Wow ... uuh ... The Harbaugh brothers. "Fat" Andy Reid. Kyle Shanahan. Brian Billick. Barry Switzer!
(stevo) Super Bowl coaches!
(markie post) Yes! Yes! Yes! (hugs all around as the confetti flies ... **** )
Jesus. You look at that list of coaches who have, uuh, coached, in at least one Super Bowl since 1995? No wonder (villiam valton voice) Vill Velichick has made nine of the last eighteen of them, as the AFC's representative. Even I could outcoach some of those fine gentlemen. I'm looking at you, "Sur" William.
--------------------
(**: in case you've forgotten, Mike McCarthy was the Chiefs QB coach from 1995-1998. Meaning he botched the transfer from Montana to Bono, botched the transfer from Bono to Gannon, botched the transfer from Gannon to Grbac, then back to Gannon, then back to Grbac ... basically, the QB position was less stable than the San Andreas fault during his four years coaching the position. And yet somehow, the Chiefs went 42-24 (counting playoffs) with two division titles, in those four years. I guess some coaches really do fail forward!)
(***: so, apparently I was late to the party on this one ... but since this #kclockdown began, I've gotten into "Chicago PD" big time. (I mean, when USA, ION, and (I think) Oxygen devote between them five days a week to showing the, uuh, show, I can get drawn in.) Apparently, Markie Post plays the drop-dead gorgeous Sophia Bush's character's mom -- a drug-addicted crook named Bunny! Who knew! Markie Post is still alive and well, and now is playing a sleazy slutty chick named Bunny! How bleeping awesome is that! Now our kids get to suffer through what she considers to be "acting", like we had to in the 1980s!)
(****: also, I've been mocking "The Pyramid" on this site long before those "free free! free!" commercials for whatever company does them, started doing them. I demand royalties dammit!)
--------------------
The next post should be Part Dos of the look back at my 2019 NFL Predictions: a fond, fair look back at what I got right. That post might top twenty printed pages, I so nailed my picks last year.
And when you haven't nailed anything but an insignificant random one-off in a few years, you compliment yourself for nailing it, every chance you can (rimshot!) ...
Showing posts with label saints. Show all posts
Showing posts with label saints. Show all posts
Saturday, April 11, 2020
Tuesday, December 31, 2019
the wild card picks
"Well if you wanna drink?
Go baby! Just do your thing!
But give up your keys --
Hell, why drive when you can stay with me!
And then after awhile?
We'll sneak away from the bonfire.
Walk by the moonlight,
And down to the riverside.
Gotcha sippin' on some moonshine --
Baby, if you're in the mood
And you can settle
For a one night rodeo?
You could be my tan-legged Juliet,
And I'll be your redneck Romeo!
Oh baby! You can find me
In the back of a jacked up tailgate!
Sittin' 'round watching all these pretty things?
Get down in that Georgia clay!
And I'll find peace,
At the bottom of a real tall cold drink!
Chillin' with some Skynyrd
And some old Hank!
Let's get this thing started!
It's my kind of party!!! ..."
-- "My Kind of Party", made famous by Jason Aldean, but written (and performed much better) by Brantley Gilbert.
--------------------
The Statisticals.
(Note: no Week Ten Picks were submitted due to real-life issues that trumped posting them.)
Last Week SU: 7-9-0. An average finish to an average season of prognosticating.
Final Season to Date SU: 139-100-1. Above .500!
Last Week ATS: 8-8-0. An average finish to an average season of prognosticating.
Final Season to Date ATS: 123-111-6. Above .500!
Last Week Upset / Week: a gigantic bleeping catastrophe.
Final Season to Date Upset / Week SU: 7-11-0. Where I'll be working to pay off my gambling debt from this season, I'm sure. (vice president biden voice) The hell you will, pal ...
Final Season to Date Upset / Week ATS: 9-9-0. A loser with the vig factored in.
--------------------
The Wild Card Picks.
I should note up front, I think picking the Wild Card round, is the hardest week of the season for NFL predictions. Your worst team left standing (and (mitch holtgus voice) for all intents and purposes, that is your Philadelphia Eagles this season), is still better than at least 62.5% of the NFL by definition (since twenty of thirty two teams fail to get this far). And most seasons -- especially this one -- there's at least two or three teams that have no business being in this round ... because they're far too good for it. (I'm looking at you, Saints, Patriots, and Texans ... and possibly Seahawks.)
Consider, the last four years in the Wild Card round:
* 2018: road teams (Colts at Texans, Seahawks at Cowboys, "Super" Chargers at Ravens, Eagles at Bears) went 3-1 outright, and you'd have won all four had you bet the spread on the road team. Only Dallas won, and that took a last second drive, to make that outcome occur.
* 2017: road teams (Titans at Chiefs, "Shane" Falcons at Rams, Bills at Jaguars, Panthers at Saints) went 2-2 outright, and no home team covered.
(Note: as John Breech at cbssports.com points out, and I suppose I just inadvertently noted, home teams are 0-8 ATS the last two years. ZERO AND EIGHT! That ... (john davidson voice) That's incredible!)
* 2016: the outlier. Road teams (raiders at Texans, Lions at Seahawks, Dolphins at Steelers, Giants at Packers) went 0-4, with no covers. To be fair, those are four of the worst road wild card teams in modern history, if you remember the raiders had to start Connor Cook. But stlll.
* 2015: road teams (Chiefs at Texans, Steelers at Bengals, Seahawks at Vikings, Packers at Redskins) went undefeated, with three of the four (all but the Steelers) being outright favorites on the road.
If you had bet solely on the road teams the last four years, you'd have gone 9-7 overall, and 11-5 against the spread. For all the talk about how "unfair" it is for a lesser-win team to host a team with a superior record? The facts show there's virtually no advantage whatsoever, for a home team in the Wild Card round.
Anyways, with that out of the way -- that this is a total crapshoot of a week to predict -- let's predict it, shall we?
* 5 Bills at 4 Texans (Saturday, 3:30pm CT, ABC / ESPN). OK, peoples and peepettes, be scared about this: I accurately called this as the playoff opener -- in this slot! -- four months ago. Did I get the seeding wrong? Of course. But tell me this isn't something to be proud of!
As for the game itself, my God, what an apparent mismatch ... on paper. The Bills have failed to top seventeen points in a game in December, and the only two times they topped thirty this year? Were against the Miami Dolphins.
They closed 1-3, the only win down the stretch coming at the Steelers, who themselves dropped three straight to p*ss away the second Wild Card. They're a run-heavy offense in a league that rewards deep balls and taking chances. And if there are two things Josh Allen is not accused of having a grasp on, it is deep balls and taking chances.
(Note: does that deserve a (rimshot!)? It doesn't? Damn. (florida evans voice) Damn, damn, damn!)
(Also: you're damned right I intentionally asked that question, to drop a "Good Times" reference into this post.)
Conversely, the Texans have closed fairly solidly since their debacle of a defeat in Crab Cake City. They throttled the Patriots, won in Nashville, and beat a Bucs team that had won four straight, to clinch the division. (We're ignoring the indefensible ass-kicking those people delivered to them a couple weeks ago, on purpose.)
Deshaun Watson can bomb it with anyone; Carlos Hyde gives them a solid back to gain the tough yardage, and the Texans will be at home, in front of a highly underrated crowd. (I've been to Reliant enough to respect their fans, tremendously. They're not Arrowhead, but they're in the upper 25% of home field crowds in the NFL, for sure.)
Throw in JJ Watt's likely return to bolster an already better than average defense, and on paper, the Texans should easily cover, and cruise to their first playoff victory since Connor Cook and "Brave" Brock Osweiler were engaged in a Jerry "The King" Lawler Memorial "Bras and Panties" match four years ago.
And usually, those two key words -- "on paper" -- would give me pause. Because I can absolutely see the Bills get off to a solid 7-0, 10-0 start, then release the hounds to try to tee off on Deshaun Watson (whose offensive line is nowhere near as good as it should be, for the talent they have).
Only ... I find it far easier to envision the opposite occurring: the Texans scoring on their first two drives to get up a couple scores, and then sending the house after Josh Allen, with a raucous NRG Reliant crowd urging them on.
And that's what I'm betting to happen. At Texans (-3) 31, Bills 13.
* 6 Titans at 3 Patriots (Saturday, 7pm CT, CBS).
True story time, boys and girls: I lived in the D/FW Metroplex for four years, to end the 1990s, as I was conning the fine folks at TCU into graduating me with not one, but two -- two! -- degrees, neither of which I have used a day in my life for my career, so far. (TCU: only $300 / credit hour back then, nearly $500 / credit hour today!)
And as a resident of that fine metropolitan area * , for the better part of those three, four years, you heard the phrase "end of the dynasty" a number of times. Hell, even the one time I conceded the Cowboys dynasty might be truly once and for all dead (after a disasterous defeat to the Panthers in Week Fifteen 1997), the Cowboys still (a) controlled their own destiny for that disasterous 1997 season, (b) went undefeated in the division and won the NFC East in 1998, and (c) earned a Wild Card berth in 1999.
That's why I question people who think one outlier (last week vs. Dolphins) means the Patriots run is about to come to a close Saturday night, or next Sunday at Arrowhead. Proud, proven veteran teams don't usually completely implode unless there's a drastic reason why. (Example: the 1999 49ers, who after eighteen straight double digit win seasons, collapsed to 4-12 because Steve Young was concussed into retirement.)
Unless you can guarantee me this is Tom Brady's final game (or final season), the Patriots run won't be over, win or lose. (No draw is possible in the postseason.)
As for the Titans, I was thoroughly impressed with them when I went to Nashville two months ago. That stadium was 60% Chiefs fans, the Chiefs got up 10-0 before the Titans knew what hit them ... and the Titans never quit fighting, to earn a three point victory over our AFC West Champions. Ryan Tannehill is finally playing like he did for the 2016 Dolphins, Derrick Henry is a f*cking beast, and Corey Davis is finally developing into the receiver the Titans always thought he would be.
(Doubt me on the 60% Chiefs fan comment? Here's a snapshot of the other side of the field:
And the side of the field I sat on:
(image credits: me, via my iPhone X something.)
This is the toughest game on the board for me to guess. It also will probably be the most entertaining game of the weekend, as every American who isn't a Patriots fan is suddenly shouting "Titan Up!" at their TV's for four hours Saturday night. (Circle me amongst those doing the shouting.)
All our screams? Aren't gonna matter. The Titans are on the rise. The Patriots are on the decline. But their X and Y coordinates haven't met -- yet -- on the grid.
Let alone passed each other, in descent and upswing. At Patriots 28, Titans (+4 1/2) 24.
(*: my favorite cities / communities in this fine country I would love to live in (and/or already have and/or currently do): 5) Tampa / St. Pete (seems obvious -- on the Gulf, in a purple state), 4) Sioux Falls (don't knock it until you've done it ... although the cold is f*cking brutal from late November to early March), 3) D/FW (never imagined this would be anywhere but numero uno), 2) Kansas City (I love my hometown), 1) Houston. If anything, my absolute love for that city only grows every time I am lucky enough to visit it. Which, sadly, won't be before January 2021, at the earliest ... for football purposes anyway.)
* 6 Vikings at 3 Saints (Sunday, noon CT, FOX). I am having brunch with my mom for our birthday's during this game. That should tell you what I think about how competitive it will be. Only one more year of Kirk Cousins, Vikings fan. Only one more year. At Saints (-8) 45, Vikings 16.
* 5 Seahawks at 4 Eagles (Sunday, 3:30pm CT, NBC). This is the game I am most looking forward to. I cannot wait to see what Doug Pederson comes up with to keep his team in this game. Because again, those two magical little words -- "on paper" -- on paper, the Seahawks should win this game easily. (They are the only road favorite in this year's Wild Card round, and deservedly so.)
The Eagles enter this one having won their last four, and clearly, whatever was said to enter that fourth quarter against the Giants, is still doing its' job, as each win for these guys keeps getting more impressive.
The Seahawks enter this one having lost two straight (at home!), and three of four overall. If momentum matters to you, then the Eagles have it.
Only ... the Eagles four wins have come against the Giants (twice), the Redskins, and the Cowboys. Not exactly murderer's row. Conversely, the Seahawks lost to the Rams in a "kitchen sink" game, a rising Cardinals squad, and the team with home field advantage throughout the postseason (49ers) -- a game that was literally a half inch from going their way.
I'd argue betting December momentum on this contest, is as useless as betting on any of the Democratic Presidential candidates at this point -- no matter what you think at this point?
None of it matters when you get down to two "teams", on a level playing field.
To bring this post full circle, think back to my thoughts on the Bills and Texans game, only flip my thoughts. I can absolutely envision the Eagles getting out to a two score lead after a quarter, and then going gangbusters after Russell Wilson, en route to a 21-10 victory that is far more comfortable for Philly than it looks on paper. That is absolutely a realistic view of this contest.
But the far more realistic view, is what happened when these two teams met in Philly six weeks ago: the Seahawks get out to a quick two score lead, then ride the defense to a tight, hard fought victory, to survive and advance. Doug Pederson is so good of a coach, he'll find a way to keep this game far, far closer than it has any reason to be. But Pete Carroll is a good enough head coach, Mr. Pederson's efforts won't matter. Seahawks (-1 1/2) 20, at Eagles 13.
Enjoy the games everyone! And in case my next post isn't up before the stroke of midnight tonight, all the best in this New Year (and new decade!) to you and yours.
Go baby! Just do your thing!
But give up your keys --
Hell, why drive when you can stay with me!
And then after awhile?
We'll sneak away from the bonfire.
Walk by the moonlight,
And down to the riverside.
Gotcha sippin' on some moonshine --
Baby, if you're in the mood
And you can settle
For a one night rodeo?
You could be my tan-legged Juliet,
And I'll be your redneck Romeo!
Oh baby! You can find me
In the back of a jacked up tailgate!
Sittin' 'round watching all these pretty things?
Get down in that Georgia clay!
And I'll find peace,
At the bottom of a real tall cold drink!
Chillin' with some Skynyrd
And some old Hank!
Let's get this thing started!
It's my kind of party!!! ..."
-- "My Kind of Party", made famous by Jason Aldean, but written (and performed much better) by Brantley Gilbert.
--------------------
The Statisticals.
(Note: no Week Ten Picks were submitted due to real-life issues that trumped posting them.)
Last Week SU: 7-9-0. An average finish to an average season of prognosticating.
Final Season to Date SU: 139-100-1. Above .500!
Last Week ATS: 8-8-0. An average finish to an average season of prognosticating.
Final Season to Date ATS: 123-111-6. Above .500!
Last Week Upset / Week: a gigantic bleeping catastrophe.
Final Season to Date Upset / Week SU: 7-11-0. Where I'll be working to pay off my gambling debt from this season, I'm sure. (vice president biden voice) The hell you will, pal ...
Final Season to Date Upset / Week ATS: 9-9-0. A loser with the vig factored in.
--------------------
The Wild Card Picks.
I should note up front, I think picking the Wild Card round, is the hardest week of the season for NFL predictions. Your worst team left standing (and (mitch holtgus voice) for all intents and purposes, that is your Philadelphia Eagles this season), is still better than at least 62.5% of the NFL by definition (since twenty of thirty two teams fail to get this far). And most seasons -- especially this one -- there's at least two or three teams that have no business being in this round ... because they're far too good for it. (I'm looking at you, Saints, Patriots, and Texans ... and possibly Seahawks.)
Consider, the last four years in the Wild Card round:
* 2018: road teams (Colts at Texans, Seahawks at Cowboys, "Super" Chargers at Ravens, Eagles at Bears) went 3-1 outright, and you'd have won all four had you bet the spread on the road team. Only Dallas won, and that took a last second drive, to make that outcome occur.
* 2017: road teams (Titans at Chiefs, "Shane" Falcons at Rams, Bills at Jaguars, Panthers at Saints) went 2-2 outright, and no home team covered.
(Note: as John Breech at cbssports.com points out, and I suppose I just inadvertently noted, home teams are 0-8 ATS the last two years. ZERO AND EIGHT! That ... (john davidson voice) That's incredible!)
* 2016: the outlier. Road teams (raiders at Texans, Lions at Seahawks, Dolphins at Steelers, Giants at Packers) went 0-4, with no covers. To be fair, those are four of the worst road wild card teams in modern history, if you remember the raiders had to start Connor Cook. But stlll.
* 2015: road teams (Chiefs at Texans, Steelers at Bengals, Seahawks at Vikings, Packers at Redskins) went undefeated, with three of the four (all but the Steelers) being outright favorites on the road.
If you had bet solely on the road teams the last four years, you'd have gone 9-7 overall, and 11-5 against the spread. For all the talk about how "unfair" it is for a lesser-win team to host a team with a superior record? The facts show there's virtually no advantage whatsoever, for a home team in the Wild Card round.
Anyways, with that out of the way -- that this is a total crapshoot of a week to predict -- let's predict it, shall we?
* 5 Bills at 4 Texans (Saturday, 3:30pm CT, ABC / ESPN). OK, peoples and peepettes, be scared about this: I accurately called this as the playoff opener -- in this slot! -- four months ago. Did I get the seeding wrong? Of course. But tell me this isn't something to be proud of!
As for the game itself, my God, what an apparent mismatch ... on paper. The Bills have failed to top seventeen points in a game in December, and the only two times they topped thirty this year? Were against the Miami Dolphins.
They closed 1-3, the only win down the stretch coming at the Steelers, who themselves dropped three straight to p*ss away the second Wild Card. They're a run-heavy offense in a league that rewards deep balls and taking chances. And if there are two things Josh Allen is not accused of having a grasp on, it is deep balls and taking chances.
(Note: does that deserve a (rimshot!)? It doesn't? Damn. (florida evans voice) Damn, damn, damn!)
(Also: you're damned right I intentionally asked that question, to drop a "Good Times" reference into this post.)
Conversely, the Texans have closed fairly solidly since their debacle of a defeat in Crab Cake City. They throttled the Patriots, won in Nashville, and beat a Bucs team that had won four straight, to clinch the division. (We're ignoring the indefensible ass-kicking those people delivered to them a couple weeks ago, on purpose.)
Deshaun Watson can bomb it with anyone; Carlos Hyde gives them a solid back to gain the tough yardage, and the Texans will be at home, in front of a highly underrated crowd. (I've been to Reliant enough to respect their fans, tremendously. They're not Arrowhead, but they're in the upper 25% of home field crowds in the NFL, for sure.)
Throw in JJ Watt's likely return to bolster an already better than average defense, and on paper, the Texans should easily cover, and cruise to their first playoff victory since Connor Cook and "Brave" Brock Osweiler were engaged in a Jerry "The King" Lawler Memorial "Bras and Panties" match four years ago.
And usually, those two key words -- "on paper" -- would give me pause. Because I can absolutely see the Bills get off to a solid 7-0, 10-0 start, then release the hounds to try to tee off on Deshaun Watson (whose offensive line is nowhere near as good as it should be, for the talent they have).
Only ... I find it far easier to envision the opposite occurring: the Texans scoring on their first two drives to get up a couple scores, and then sending the house after Josh Allen, with a raucous NRG Reliant crowd urging them on.
And that's what I'm betting to happen. At Texans (-3) 31, Bills 13.
* 6 Titans at 3 Patriots (Saturday, 7pm CT, CBS).
True story time, boys and girls: I lived in the D/FW Metroplex for four years, to end the 1990s, as I was conning the fine folks at TCU into graduating me with not one, but two -- two! -- degrees, neither of which I have used a day in my life for my career, so far. (TCU: only $300 / credit hour back then, nearly $500 / credit hour today!)
And as a resident of that fine metropolitan area * , for the better part of those three, four years, you heard the phrase "end of the dynasty" a number of times. Hell, even the one time I conceded the Cowboys dynasty might be truly once and for all dead (after a disasterous defeat to the Panthers in Week Fifteen 1997), the Cowboys still (a) controlled their own destiny for that disasterous 1997 season, (b) went undefeated in the division and won the NFC East in 1998, and (c) earned a Wild Card berth in 1999.
That's why I question people who think one outlier (last week vs. Dolphins) means the Patriots run is about to come to a close Saturday night, or next Sunday at Arrowhead. Proud, proven veteran teams don't usually completely implode unless there's a drastic reason why. (Example: the 1999 49ers, who after eighteen straight double digit win seasons, collapsed to 4-12 because Steve Young was concussed into retirement.)
Unless you can guarantee me this is Tom Brady's final game (or final season), the Patriots run won't be over, win or lose. (No draw is possible in the postseason.)
As for the Titans, I was thoroughly impressed with them when I went to Nashville two months ago. That stadium was 60% Chiefs fans, the Chiefs got up 10-0 before the Titans knew what hit them ... and the Titans never quit fighting, to earn a three point victory over our AFC West Champions. Ryan Tannehill is finally playing like he did for the 2016 Dolphins, Derrick Henry is a f*cking beast, and Corey Davis is finally developing into the receiver the Titans always thought he would be.
(Doubt me on the 60% Chiefs fan comment? Here's a snapshot of the other side of the field:
And the side of the field I sat on:
(image credits: me, via my iPhone X something.)
This is the toughest game on the board for me to guess. It also will probably be the most entertaining game of the weekend, as every American who isn't a Patriots fan is suddenly shouting "Titan Up!" at their TV's for four hours Saturday night. (Circle me amongst those doing the shouting.)
All our screams? Aren't gonna matter. The Titans are on the rise. The Patriots are on the decline. But their X and Y coordinates haven't met -- yet -- on the grid.
Let alone passed each other, in descent and upswing. At Patriots 28, Titans (+4 1/2) 24.
(*: my favorite cities / communities in this fine country I would love to live in (and/or already have and/or currently do): 5) Tampa / St. Pete (seems obvious -- on the Gulf, in a purple state), 4) Sioux Falls (don't knock it until you've done it ... although the cold is f*cking brutal from late November to early March), 3) D/FW (never imagined this would be anywhere but numero uno), 2) Kansas City (I love my hometown), 1) Houston. If anything, my absolute love for that city only grows every time I am lucky enough to visit it. Which, sadly, won't be before January 2021, at the earliest ... for football purposes anyway.)
* 6 Vikings at 3 Saints (Sunday, noon CT, FOX). I am having brunch with my mom for our birthday's during this game. That should tell you what I think about how competitive it will be. Only one more year of Kirk Cousins, Vikings fan. Only one more year. At Saints (-8) 45, Vikings 16.
* 5 Seahawks at 4 Eagles (Sunday, 3:30pm CT, NBC). This is the game I am most looking forward to. I cannot wait to see what Doug Pederson comes up with to keep his team in this game. Because again, those two magical little words -- "on paper" -- on paper, the Seahawks should win this game easily. (They are the only road favorite in this year's Wild Card round, and deservedly so.)
The Eagles enter this one having won their last four, and clearly, whatever was said to enter that fourth quarter against the Giants, is still doing its' job, as each win for these guys keeps getting more impressive.
The Seahawks enter this one having lost two straight (at home!), and three of four overall. If momentum matters to you, then the Eagles have it.
Only ... the Eagles four wins have come against the Giants (twice), the Redskins, and the Cowboys. Not exactly murderer's row. Conversely, the Seahawks lost to the Rams in a "kitchen sink" game, a rising Cardinals squad, and the team with home field advantage throughout the postseason (49ers) -- a game that was literally a half inch from going their way.
I'd argue betting December momentum on this contest, is as useless as betting on any of the Democratic Presidential candidates at this point -- no matter what you think at this point?
None of it matters when you get down to two "teams", on a level playing field.
To bring this post full circle, think back to my thoughts on the Bills and Texans game, only flip my thoughts. I can absolutely envision the Eagles getting out to a two score lead after a quarter, and then going gangbusters after Russell Wilson, en route to a 21-10 victory that is far more comfortable for Philly than it looks on paper. That is absolutely a realistic view of this contest.
But the far more realistic view, is what happened when these two teams met in Philly six weeks ago: the Seahawks get out to a quick two score lead, then ride the defense to a tight, hard fought victory, to survive and advance. Doug Pederson is so good of a coach, he'll find a way to keep this game far, far closer than it has any reason to be. But Pete Carroll is a good enough head coach, Mr. Pederson's efforts won't matter. Seahawks (-1 1/2) 20, at Eagles 13.
Enjoy the games everyone! And in case my next post isn't up before the stroke of midnight tonight, all the best in this New Year (and new decade!) to you and yours.
Saturday, September 7, 2019
stevo's 2019 nfl predictions: the wild card contenders
"There's something wrong with the world today;
I don't know what it is.
There's something wrong with our eyes.
We're seeing things in a different way,
And God knows it ain't His.
It sure ain't no surprise.
We're living on the edge!
Living on the edge!
Living on the edge!
Living on the edge!
There's something wrong with the world today;
The light bulb's getting dim.
There's meltdown in the skies.
If you can judge a wise man
By the color of his skin?
Then mister, you're a better man than I.
We're living on the edge!
(You can't help yourself from falling!)
Living on the edge!
(You can't help yourself at all!)
Living on the edge!
(You can't help yourself from falling!)
Living on the edge!
(You can't help yourself at all!) ...
-- "Living on the Edge" by Aerosmith.
--------------------
Here are your 2019 NFL Season Predictions, broken down into five parts:
Part I: The Last Place Finishers
Part II: The Third Place Finishers
Part III: The Wild Card Contenders
Part IV: The Division Winners
Part V: The Postseason
Also, this is your Week One Power Poll. As always, 32 is typical New York Jets bad, 1 is typical New England Patriots good.
Enjoy.
--------------------
16. those people.
Last Year: 6-10-0, 3rd Place, AFC West.
Prediction: 8-8-0, 2nd Place, AFC West.
I have them losing all four road games after their bye (@ Vikings, @ Bills, @ Chiefs, @ Texans). Win any of those, and they're your six seed. Especially if that win is the Bills roadie.
15. Jacksonville Jaguars.
Last Year: 5-11-0, Last Place, AFC South.
Prediction: 9-7-0, 2nd Place, AFC South.
Another team I have dropping every road game after their bye, when winning just one of them could mean the postseason. Especially if that one is against either the Colts or the Titans.
14. Philadelphia Eagles.
Last Year: 9-7-0, 2nd Place, NFC East.
Postseason: W Wild Card 16-14 (@ Bears); L Divisional Round 14-20 (@ Saints).
Prediction: 10-6-0, 2nd Place, NFC East.
It's a clusterf*ck at 10-6 in the NFC, and the Eagles are one of the two that get screwed. Along with ...
13. New Orleans Saints.
Last Year: 13-3-0, NFC South Champions.
Postseason: W Divisional Round 20-14 (vs Eagles); L Conference Championship 23-26 (OT) (vs Rams).
Prediction: 10-6-0, 2nd Place, NFC South.
I have them going 2-6 away from the Dome. That dooms them to picking 20th next April.
Which leads us to our four wild cards, two per conference ...
12. Buffalo Bills.
Last Year: 6-10-0, 3rd Place, AFC East.
Prediction: 10-6-0, 2nd Place, AFC East; Sixth Seed AFC.
This was the tiebreaker that came down to strength of victory. But it wasn't between the Bills, and who you might expect.
11. Green Bay Packers.
Last Year: 6-9-1, 3rd Place, NFC Norris.
Prediction: 10-6-0, 2nd Place, NFC Norris; Sixth Seed NFC.
Although after Thursday night, I might want to flip who I have 1-2 in the Norris. I have them both at 10-6.
10. San Francisco 49ers.
Last Year: 4-12-0, 3rd Place, NFC West.
Prediction: 10-6-0, 2nd Place, NFC West; Fifth Seed NFC.
I'm not sure what's more full of sh*t with this prediction -- the streets of San Francisco, or me. I just really like this team this year. And I have them at ten wins with a gigantic upset loss at Fake RFK, that's how much I believe in these guys.
9. Pittsburgh Steelers.
Last Year: 9-6-1, 2nd Place, AFC Norris.
Prediction: 10-6-0, 2nd Place, AFC Norris; Fifth Seed AFC.
Addition by subtraction baby!
Up next: your divisional winners. Six of whom are repeats from last season. Plus the schedule runs, to show how I arrived at your team's projected record(s) ...
I don't know what it is.
There's something wrong with our eyes.
We're seeing things in a different way,
And God knows it ain't His.
It sure ain't no surprise.
We're living on the edge!
Living on the edge!
Living on the edge!
Living on the edge!
There's something wrong with the world today;
The light bulb's getting dim.
There's meltdown in the skies.
If you can judge a wise man
By the color of his skin?
Then mister, you're a better man than I.
We're living on the edge!
(You can't help yourself from falling!)
Living on the edge!
(You can't help yourself at all!)
Living on the edge!
(You can't help yourself from falling!)
Living on the edge!
(You can't help yourself at all!) ...
-- "Living on the Edge" by Aerosmith.
--------------------
Here are your 2019 NFL Season Predictions, broken down into five parts:
Part I: The Last Place Finishers
Part II: The Third Place Finishers
Part III: The Wild Card Contenders
Part IV: The Division Winners
Part V: The Postseason
Also, this is your Week One Power Poll. As always, 32 is typical New York Jets bad, 1 is typical New England Patriots good.
Enjoy.
--------------------
16. those people.
Last Year: 6-10-0, 3rd Place, AFC West.
Prediction: 8-8-0, 2nd Place, AFC West.
I have them losing all four road games after their bye (@ Vikings, @ Bills, @ Chiefs, @ Texans). Win any of those, and they're your six seed. Especially if that win is the Bills roadie.
15. Jacksonville Jaguars.
Last Year: 5-11-0, Last Place, AFC South.
Prediction: 9-7-0, 2nd Place, AFC South.
Another team I have dropping every road game after their bye, when winning just one of them could mean the postseason. Especially if that one is against either the Colts or the Titans.
14. Philadelphia Eagles.
Last Year: 9-7-0, 2nd Place, NFC East.
Postseason: W Wild Card 16-14 (@ Bears); L Divisional Round 14-20 (@ Saints).
Prediction: 10-6-0, 2nd Place, NFC East.
It's a clusterf*ck at 10-6 in the NFC, and the Eagles are one of the two that get screwed. Along with ...
13. New Orleans Saints.
Last Year: 13-3-0, NFC South Champions.
Postseason: W Divisional Round 20-14 (vs Eagles); L Conference Championship 23-26 (OT) (vs Rams).
Prediction: 10-6-0, 2nd Place, NFC South.
I have them going 2-6 away from the Dome. That dooms them to picking 20th next April.
Which leads us to our four wild cards, two per conference ...
12. Buffalo Bills.
Last Year: 6-10-0, 3rd Place, AFC East.
Prediction: 10-6-0, 2nd Place, AFC East; Sixth Seed AFC.
This was the tiebreaker that came down to strength of victory. But it wasn't between the Bills, and who you might expect.
11. Green Bay Packers.
Last Year: 6-9-1, 3rd Place, NFC Norris.
Prediction: 10-6-0, 2nd Place, NFC Norris; Sixth Seed NFC.
Although after Thursday night, I might want to flip who I have 1-2 in the Norris. I have them both at 10-6.
10. San Francisco 49ers.
Last Year: 4-12-0, 3rd Place, NFC West.
Prediction: 10-6-0, 2nd Place, NFC West; Fifth Seed NFC.
I'm not sure what's more full of sh*t with this prediction -- the streets of San Francisco, or me. I just really like this team this year. And I have them at ten wins with a gigantic upset loss at Fake RFK, that's how much I believe in these guys.
9. Pittsburgh Steelers.
Last Year: 9-6-1, 2nd Place, AFC Norris.
Prediction: 10-6-0, 2nd Place, AFC Norris; Fifth Seed AFC.
Addition by subtraction baby!
Up next: your divisional winners. Six of whom are repeats from last season. Plus the schedule runs, to show how I arrived at your team's projected record(s) ...
Wednesday, September 5, 2018
stevo's 2018 nfl predictions
"Well my friends?
The time has come.
To raise the roof,
And have some fun.
Throw away
The work to be done,
And let the music
Play on!
Everybody sing;
Everybody dance.
Lose yourself?
In wild romance!
We're going to party!
Caramba! Fiesta!
Forever!
Come on and sing along!
We're going to party!
Caramba! Fiesta!
Forever!
Come on and sing along!
All night long! (All night!)
All night! (All night!)
All night long! (All night!)
All night! (All night!)
All night long! (All night!)
All night! (All night!)
All night long! (All night!)
All night! (All night!) ...
-- "All Night Long" by Lionel Richie.
--------------------
Welcome to the 2018 NFL Season Predictions Post.
Unlike last year, I'm not splitting this into five pieces, namely because I don't have the time to do it. So here we go, via the Version 1.0 NFL Power Poll for 2018.
Oh, and the schedule runs will appear as the eight division winners appear farther down this post.
(And yes, I know -- I somehow wound up with a 255-257 record. I literally spent an afternoon at work going line by line across sheets to find the error, and I couldn't do it. Also, I should probably note, this is year twenty of me working as a reinsurance accountant across two global and one local reinsurance companies. I am a fairly well known name in the industry (which, in a rarity for me, being fairly well known is a positive). And I couldn't find one error on seventeen lines of a tab despite four hours and multiple formulas (to say nothing of literally printing off each tab and going literally line by line by hand, to try to find said error). I feel you should know that.)
All I can say, is that if you're a fan of the direction the NFL is heading on the field? (And I sure as hell am!) Then you're gonna love the final four matchups, my schedule run came up with.
And I mean LOVE.
Because there isn't a quarterback over the age of 24, in my Final Four.
Tier One: The Last Place Finishers.
32. Baltimore Ravens (AFC Norris).
Projected Finish: 3-13-0 Overall / 0-6-0 Division / 1-11-0 Conference.
This is gonna be a brutal season for the Ravens. So brutal? That I project they will "accomplish" something they have never done in 22 prior years: lose at Arrowhead in a game that counts.
31. Arizona "Super" Cardinals (NFC West).
Projected Record: 3-13-0 Overall / 0-6-0 Division / 1-11-0 Conference.
On the bright side, you got Josh Rosen, my favorite QB in this year's draft. On the down side, you got Josh Rosen, my favorite QB in this year's draft.
30. New York Giants (NFC East).
Projected Record: 4-12-0 Overall / 2-4-0 Division / 4-8-0 Conference.
I give it until about seven minutes left in the second quarter Sunday, before the "Pat Must Go!" chants break out at Fake Giants Stadium. Considering Pat Shurmur never should have been hired, that seems like a conservative guesstimate, on the exact point the fanbase revolts against this indefensible hire.
29. New York Jets (AFC East).
Projected Record: 4-12-0 Overall / 2-4-0 Division / 4-8-0 Conference.
Drafting Browning Nagle Junior (aka Sam Darnold) might finally be my breaking point with this miserable franchise. (Pause). Jesus, I'll never quit these lovable losers.
28. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (NFC South).
Projected Record: 5-11-0 Overall / 3-3-0 Division / 4-8-0 Conference.
Opening 0-5 (as I project the Bucs will do) does nothing to help inspire confidence in the future of this franchise. Much less the present.
27. Los Angeles "Super" Chargers (AFC West).
Projected Record: 6-10-0 Overall / 2-4-0 Division / 4-8-0 Conference.
This team is 4-11 in games that count prior to October 9th the previous three years. Four. And. Eleven.
(In contrast? The Chiefs are 9-5. (We had the early bye (Week 5) in 2016 to account for a one game difference.) The point being? The Chiefs average being two games ahead of these guys at the quarter point of the season, the last three years. Also, the Chiefs owned divisional wins over the Chargers at the quarter point in both 2016 and 2017, as part of those nine wins and eleven Charger defeats, so make it effectively three games up with eleven to play.)
Their head coach is a blithering idiot, their quarterback has more kids (eight at last count) than playoff berths in his career (five at last count), they play in a stadium that freaking Dolphins fans outnumbered Chargers fans in last fall (to say nothing of every other visitor to wherever the hell they play at), and as if all that isn't damning enough ...
They open vs Chiefs (who they haven't beaten in their last eight attempts) / at Bills (however awful the Bills may be, home openers are always dicey) / at Rams (good luck guys) / vs 49ers (whose fans will definitely outnumber Chargers fans for). That smells like 1-3 at best.
Throw in a brutal last five (at Steelers / vs Bengals / at Chiefs (Thurs) / vs Ravens / at those people), to say nothing of the huge roster improvement of one divisional foe (and that foe ain't the Chiefs, and it ain't the raiders), and this just seems like the preseason darling that is going to sh*t the bed this fall.
Which is what I'm projecting.
26. Chicago Bears (NFC Norris).
Projected Record: 7-9-0 Overall / 3-3-0 Division / 5-7-0 Conference.
I actually have the Bears at 6-4 going to Detroit on Turkey Day, before the floor collapses. (The last six is brutal folks -- roadies to the Lions, 49ers and Vikings, plus home games against the Rams and Packers.) I also have the Bears with a better final record than a third place finisher, and a second place finisher, in other divisions. But since I project them to finish last in the NFC Norris, they fall into Tier One.
The compass is pointed north in the Windy City for once. There's a future here worth looking forward to for once.
25. Indianapolis Colts (AFC South).
Projected Record: 8-8-0 Overall / 3-3-0 Division / 6-6-0 Conference.
I have the Indianapolis Colts in a "win and they're in" finale against the Titans. (Hint: they won't win.) If Andrew Luck is healthy, this team will be in the wildcard mix, if not in the hunt for the AFC South. But that's one gigantic big "if".
Tier Two: The Third Place Finishers.
24. Buffalo Bills (AFC East).
Projected Record: 5-11-0 Overall / 3-3-0 Division / 5-7-0 Conference.
At least that Monday Nighter against the Patriots should be fun for their fans. Because not much else this year, will be.
23. Cleveland Browns (AFC Norris).
Projected Record: 8-8-0 Overall / 4-2-0 Division / 6-6-0 Conference.
I have the Browns on the fringe of things for a wild card berth entering December. This team is finally headed in thewrong right direction. I just couldn't find a ninth win for them in the run. And considering some of the wins I gave them, nine really seems like a stretch. But if anybody can pull it off, and obtain a "how the f*ck did this happen?!?!?!" playoff berth a year after rock stinking bottom, it's John Dorsey. (frank gifford voice) We've seen it before. (dan dierdorf voice) Oh yeah!
22. those people (AFC West).
Projected Record: 8-8-0 Overall / 2-4-0 Division / 6-6-0 Conference.
The clusterf*ck at 9-7 / 8-8 in the AFC is so f*cking beautiful I nearly cried watching it play out. Not one, not two, not three, not four, not five, not six, not seven, but eight -- eight! -- AFC squads at 8-8 or 9-7, with a ninth at 7-9, and two more at 10-6. Five of those eleven, are making the playoffs.
Thankfully, one of thosefour five is not going to be those people, the most despicable, indefensible, intolerable, vile, evil, demonic sports franchise to ever be birthed. I despise, and I mean despise, those people so much, I decided two years ago to just give in to the unfiltered hatred, and refuse to even type their name, let alone say it. Sh*t, I don't even use nicknames anymore like "bronkeys" or "unicorns" or "donkeys" or "heaving penises", because that gives them too much respect.
There's a reason why my first task at tailgating every week (after getting the Bus unloaded of course), is to lynch that despicable mascot with his five nooses, stuff that Chiefs pacifier in his demonic face, and slap the Chiefs diaper on him. And that reason is to give each and every fan the ability to let Cinco Noose Donkey know exactly what we think of him and his people. (Hint: his helmet was broken due to a drunken meltdown by someone (cough me cough) after the 2015 defeat to those people.)
Anyways, back to the Poll. If only because a pole is the only thing any female those people fan is even remotely qualified, to work on.
21. Atlanta "Shane" Falcons (NFC South).
Projected Record: 8-8-0 Overall / 3-3-0 Division / 6-6-0 Conference.
Surprise? Somebody has to finish third in the South, and I'm fairly confident it won't be New Orleans, which leaves the "Shane" Falcons and Panthers to battle it out for the "honors". Having six of their last nine (including all three divisional ones) on the road killed their stretch run.
20. Philadelphia Eagles (NFC East).
Projected Record: 8-8-0 Overall / 3-3-0 Division / 6-6-0 Conference.
For those who think I'm nuts for picking the Eagles third, I remind you, I picked them to finish first last year, and win a playoff game once they got there. Find another prognosticator with the foresight to have done that, at this time last season.
The Eagles last four buried them; I have them losing all three roadies in that stretch (Rams, Cowboys, Redskins), to miss the postseason.
19. San Francisco 49ers (NFC West).
Projected Record: 9-7-0 Overall / 4-2-0 Division / 7-5-0 Conference.
The first six are going to kill the 49ers. I have them controlling their own destiny for a wild card berth entering the finale (which I have them losing) despite opening 2-4. Brighter days are ahead for these guys for sure.
18. Minnesota Vikings (NFC Norris).
Projected Record: 9-7-0 Overall / 3-3-0 Division / 6-6-0 Conference.
I have the Vikings beating the 49ers in Week One, hence the higher ranking despite the 49ers superior conference record.
I just ... I can't explain it. There's three teams that everyone seems to love this year that I think are going to regress. One is your "Super" Chargers. The Vikings are the second. I don't like f*cking with chemistry at the quarterback position, that's working. (See Chiefs, 1997-1998). I really don't like f*cking with it for someone outside the building that doesn't know the playbook, doesn't know the culture, doesn't know the franchise. (See Chiefs, 1997-1998).
Week Sixteen wound up being the Vikings kryptonite. If they had won in Week Sixteen, they not only would have made the playoffs, they would have been the three seed as NFC Norris champs.
17. Jacksonville Jaguars (AFC South).
Projected Record: 9-7-0 Overall / 3-3-0 Division / 6-6-0 Conference.
Postseason: AFC Second Wild Card (Sixth Seed Overall).
Every year (or so it seems), some team blindly / drunkenly / stonedly (is that a word?) / by the skin of its' ass, sneaks into the playoffs, by literally losing their way into them. The Titans did it last year, losing three of four. I have two of them doing it this year, one being the Jags.
I have the Jaguars losing three of their last four, and five of their last seven, yet never really being in danger of missing the playoffs (I have the Jags clinching at least a wild card berth in Week Fifteen).
Still, in the AFC, where I have exactly six squads with a winning record, don't sleep on anyone. Anyone can win this thing, save for the Ravens and probably the Jets.
Tier Three: The Second Place Finishers.
16. Miami Dolphins (AFC East).
Projected Record: 7-9-0 Overall / 3-3-0 Division / 6-6-0 Conference.
Someone in this sh*ttacular division has to finish second.
15. Pittsburgh Steelers (AFC Norris).
Projected Record: 8-8-0 Overall / 4-2-0 Division / 6-6-0 Conference.
And this is the third team everyone is hyping, that I don't get the hype for.
I just don't see it. They lose a rock solid offensive coordinator, (al michaels voice) Ben is a year older, LeVeon Bell is holding out, Ryan Shazier can inspire but he can't tackle, and ... I mean, should I go on?
These guys remind me of the 2004 Chiefs, the 2010 Chargers, the 2017 Cowboys -- teams with the talent to make the playoffs, that for a variety of reasons, fail to get there. (Also, teams that indefensibly sh*t the bed at home in the Divisional Round, the year before. Those are the teams that tend to regress the following season. Probably because they're as hung over as I usually am, after a Chiefs "how the hell did this happen?" defeat in January.)
14. oakland raiders (AFC West).
Projected Record: 8-8-0 Overall / 3-3-0 Division / 8-4-0 Conference.
raiders finish ahead of those people via head to head sweep.
I also have the raiders in complete and total control of their own destiny, entering Week Sixteen. Win out and they're in. I project they won't. Which means they're the first team out in the AFC, via tiebreakers that I refuse to try to re-run. (When you have a five way clusterf*ck at 8-8, and strength of victory starts getting tossed around, it's time to call it a day.)
13. Carolina Panthers (NFC South).
Projected Record: 9-7-0 Overall / 3-3-0 Division / 6-6-0 Conference.
I project the finale at New Orleans to not only be a "win and you're in" scenario for both teams, I project that it's a "win and you're the division champs, lose and you miss the playoffs entirely" scenario for both teams.
(My way of saying, I project NBC to flex this one, into the final Sunday night slot.)
A de-facto playoff game to end the season between two hated rivals, who just met in the playoffs last year.
I love this sport sometimes.
12. Green Bay Packers (NFC Norris).
Projected Record: 10-6-0 Overall / 3-3-0 Division / 6-6-0 Conference.
No, I do not have the Green Bay Packers in the playoffs, although in this case, it is entirely their own fault. I have them losing head to head to both wild card teams (which eliminates them, if I read the tiebreaker rules correctly, in a three way tie between teams in three different divisions), and I have the Lions with a better conference record, which costs them the division (again, if I read the tiebreaker rules right, and after doing this schedule run across parts of three days, I'm not re-reading them until December).
I also want to get on record that Mike McCarthy will be the stunning "whoa! Dude got sh*t canned!" firing come December 31st.
11. Houston Texans (AFC South).
Projected Record: 9-7-0 Overall / 3-3-0 Division / 7-5-0 Conference.
Postseason: AFC First Wild Card (Fifth Seed Overall).
Texans earn tiebreaker over the Jaguars via conference record.
I have the Texans winning five of their last six to get in (the sole defeat being at Philly). And all I can say, is that if the Texans get in on a hot streak, with Deshaun Watson fully healthy under center, look out, AFC playoff bracket. Look out.
10. Seattle Seahawks (NFC West).
Projected Record: 10-6-0 Overall / 4-2-0 Division / 7-5-0 Conference.
Postseason: NFC Second Wild Card (Sixth Seed Overall).
I have the Seahawks at 6-5 after a defeat in Carolina. They have four of their last five at home (the roadie is at the 49ers). My way of saying, if the Seahawks are 6-5 entering Week Thirteen, they're going to get to ten wins, and ten wins coupled with the tiebreakers I envision them having (Green Bay and Dallas both travel to Seattle earlier in the season) get them in. Barely.
One last gasp for these guys.
I don't project it's going to last long.
9. Washington Redskins (NFC East).
Projected Record: 10-6-0 Overall / 3-3-0 Division / 8-4-0 Conference.
Postseason: NFC First Wild Card (Fifth Seed Overall).
Say what you want about "Sir" Alex Smith, but the bottom line is that in his time in Kansas City, he averaged 10 wins a season, made the playoffs four out of five years (winning two division titles), and the year the Chiefs missed the postseason, they missed it on tiebreakers.
Why would you expect anything else, because he goes from one reasonably solid roster to another? I don't. The Redskins know what they're trading for. Given that fanbase's expectations, this probably won't end well, but at least it won't begin as a dumpster fire.
Tier Four: The Division Champions.
8. Cincinnati Bengals (AFC Norris).
Projected Record: 9-7-0 Overall / 4-2-0 Division / 7-5-0 Conference.
Postseason: NFC Norris Champions (Fourth Seed Overall).
I have the Bengals at 9-3, at least two games clear of every other projected AFC Division leader, entering Week Fourteen.
I think we can all guess, how this is going to end.
Your AFC Norris Schedule Run:
7. New Orleans Saints (NFC South).
Projected Record: 9-7-0 Overall / 3-3-0 Division / 7-5-0 Conference.
Postseason: NFC South Champions (Fourth Seed Overall).
Saints earn tiebreaker over Panthers via conference record.
I probably have them a win or two too low, to be honest, and probably a seed or two too low as well, but good teams don't give a damn about their seed. They only care about being a seed, to ensure a game or four in January.
And the Saints? Are a damned good team.
Your NFC South Schedule Run:
6. Detroit Lions (NFC Norris).
Projected Record: 10-6-0 Overall / 3-3-0 Division / 7-5-0 Conference.
Postseason: NFC Norris Champions (Third Seed Overall).
Lions win tiebreaker over the Packers via conference record.
Since I have nothing to add, your NFC Norris Schedule Run:
5. Kansas City Chiefs (AFC West).
Projected Record: 10-6-0 Overall / 5-1-0 Division / 8-4-0 Conference.
Postseason: AFC West Champions (Third Seed Overall).
In the interest of full disclosure, I am a Chiefs Season Ticket Member. (Section 132 Represent!) So if you want to yell that the schedule run was rigged? Feel free; nobody's stopping you.
(Or disagreeing with you.)
But also, in the interest of fairness and honesty, if the "Super" Chargers implode early (as they always do), what other outcome is there for the AFC West? I mean sh*t, we did everything but shove the division into the raiders and "Super" Chargers laps last year. The Chiefs dropped five of six, fell into a three way tie at 6-6 with four weeks left, with the raiders and Chargers coming to Arrowhead, where the Chiefs had lost two straight and three of four. We did everything short of waving the white flag, and no other team could step into the void! (The Chiefs pounded the raiders and Chargers, to effectively clinch the division, with two weeks to play.)
Do you think those people are getting to ten wins? I had to stretch to get them to eight! Do you think the raiders are getting to ten wins? I have them at 5-7 with four to play, and before you note the "yeah, but they can beat the Chiefs at home", do I have to go there? I guess I do.
"Fat" Andy Reid coming off a bye week? Is damned near unbeatable.
(He's won his last four exiting a bye, and is 14-3 career the week after the bye.)
Our bye week falls?
The week before the trip to the Bay.
Until I see evidence that one of these other three pretenders is ready to get serious about challenging for the division, the default is your two time defending champ.
Soon to be three time defending champ.
Your AFC West Schedule Run:
4. Dallas Cowboys (NFC East).
Projected Record: 10-6-0 Overall / 4-2-0 Division / 8-4-0 Conference.
Postseason: NFC East Champions (Second Overall Seed).
Cowboys win tiebreaker over Redskins via divisional record.
And here's where one Week One projection -- Cowboys over Panthers -- altered everything in the NFC.
The Cowboys win gives them the two seed and a bye; keeps the Packers out of the playoffs entirely, hands the NFC South to New Orleans, and knocks the Panthers out of the playoffs entirely.
A Carolina win? Gives the Redskins the NFC East and the two seed (I project the Redskins beat the Panthers in Week Six), the Panthers the NFC South and the three seed, and gets the Packers into the playoffs as the six seed.
My head hurts. Here's your NFC East Schedule Run:
3. New England Patriots (AFC East).
Projected Record: 10-6-0 Overall / 4-2-0 Division / 8-4-0 Conference.
Postseason: AFC East Champions (Second Seed Overall).
Patriots win tiebreaker over Chiefs for second seed via Week Six victory.
I think this is the year New England finally regresses to the mean ... but come on. That division is so f*cking awful 6-10 might win it by two games.
Your AFC East Schedule Run:
2. Tennessee Titans (AFC South).
Projected Record: 11-5-0 Overall / 3-3-0 Division / 8-4-0 Conference.
Postseason: AFC South Champions (First Seed Overall).
I'm probably more stunned than you.
Your AFC South Schedule Run:
1. Los Angeles Rams (NFC West).
Projected Record: 11-5-0 Overall / 4-2-0 Division / 8-4-0 Conference.
Postseason: NFC West Champions (First Seed Overall).
I am not even remotely surprised by this. If anything, I'm stunned the Rams topped out at only eleven wins. To say I'm high on this team, is about as grouse an understatement as noting I went through my 20s drunk, my 30s stoned, and I'm paying for my 20s and 30s in my 40s.
Your NFC West Schedule Run:
Finally ...
Tier Five: The Postseason.
Wild Card Round.
* Saturday, January 5, 2019, 3:30pm CT (ESPN / ABC):
5 Houston Texans 31, at 4 Cincinnati Bengals 21.
You betting on the Bengals to win in the postseason? Because I've been there, done that, and refuse to do it again.
* Saturday, January 5, 2019, 7:30pm CT (NBC):
6 Seattle Seahawks 27, at 3 Detroit Lions 41.
Holy hell, Detroit itself might burn to the ground if this result happens. #riotaway
* Sunday, January 6, 2019, noon CT (FOX):
5 Washington Redskins 13, at 4 New Orleans Saints 34.
It was fun while it lasted, 'Skins.
* Sunday, January 6, 2019, 3:30pm CT (CBS):
6 Jacksonville Jaguars 13, 3 Kansas City Chiefs 23.
Speaking of cities that might burn themselves to the ground because the home football team finally won a home playoff game, my home town everybody! Just please spare Waldo, that's all I ask. I kind of like where I live.
Divisional Round.
* Saturday, January 12, 2019, 3:30pm CT (NBC):
3 Kansas City Chiefs 27, at 2 New England Patriots 20.
If The Sanchize can win a divisional round game in Foxboro? If Joe Freaking Flacco can win a conference championship game in Foxboro? Then Patrick Mahomes "Of the Chiefs" can too, god*mmit.
* Saturday, January 12, 2019, 7:30pm (FOX):
4 New Orleans Saints 38, at 1 Los Angeles Rams 41 (OT).
Your de-facto Super Bowl. And it is going to be great to watch.
* Sunday, January 13, 2019, noon CT (CBS):
5 Houston Texans 38, at 1 Tennessee Titans 31.
Watson! Mariota! Texans! Titans! Nantz! Romo! ONLY ... CBS!!!!!
(And about 35 million viewers drooling over every snap.)
* Sunday, January 13, 2019, 3:30pm CT (FOX):
3 Detroit Lions 14, at 2 Dallas Cowboys 31.
I guess that would avenge the 1991 Divisional Round?
Conference Championship Round.
* Sunday, January 20, 2019, 2pm CT (FOX):
2 Dallas Cowboys 27, at 1 Los Angeles Rams 34.
NFC Champions: 1 Los Angeles Rams.
* Sunday, January 20, 2019, 5:30pm CT (CBS):
5 Houston Texans 30, at 3 Kansas City Chiefs 35.
They're gonna have to rename the Sports Complex "Lake Arrowhead" once I'm done crying.
AFC Champions: 3 Kansas City Chiefs.
Super Bowl LIII.
* Sunday, February 3, 2019, 5:20pm CT (CBS).
1 Los Angeles Rams 34, 3 Kansas City Chiefs 24.
Super Bowl Champions: Los Angeles Rams.
The time has come.
To raise the roof,
And have some fun.
Throw away
The work to be done,
And let the music
Play on!
Everybody sing;
Everybody dance.
Lose yourself?
In wild romance!
We're going to party!
Caramba! Fiesta!
Forever!
Come on and sing along!
We're going to party!
Caramba! Fiesta!
Forever!
Come on and sing along!
All night long! (All night!)
All night! (All night!)
All night long! (All night!)
All night! (All night!)
All night long! (All night!)
All night! (All night!)
All night long! (All night!)
All night! (All night!) ...
-- "All Night Long" by Lionel Richie.
--------------------
Welcome to the 2018 NFL Season Predictions Post.
Unlike last year, I'm not splitting this into five pieces, namely because I don't have the time to do it. So here we go, via the Version 1.0 NFL Power Poll for 2018.
Oh, and the schedule runs will appear as the eight division winners appear farther down this post.
(And yes, I know -- I somehow wound up with a 255-257 record. I literally spent an afternoon at work going line by line across sheets to find the error, and I couldn't do it. Also, I should probably note, this is year twenty of me working as a reinsurance accountant across two global and one local reinsurance companies. I am a fairly well known name in the industry (which, in a rarity for me, being fairly well known is a positive). And I couldn't find one error on seventeen lines of a tab despite four hours and multiple formulas (to say nothing of literally printing off each tab and going literally line by line by hand, to try to find said error). I feel you should know that.)
All I can say, is that if you're a fan of the direction the NFL is heading on the field? (And I sure as hell am!) Then you're gonna love the final four matchups, my schedule run came up with.
And I mean LOVE.
Because there isn't a quarterback over the age of 24, in my Final Four.
Tier One: The Last Place Finishers.
32. Baltimore Ravens (AFC Norris).
Projected Finish: 3-13-0 Overall / 0-6-0 Division / 1-11-0 Conference.
This is gonna be a brutal season for the Ravens. So brutal? That I project they will "accomplish" something they have never done in 22 prior years: lose at Arrowhead in a game that counts.
31. Arizona "Super" Cardinals (NFC West).
Projected Record: 3-13-0 Overall / 0-6-0 Division / 1-11-0 Conference.
On the bright side, you got Josh Rosen, my favorite QB in this year's draft. On the down side, you got Josh Rosen, my favorite QB in this year's draft.
30. New York Giants (NFC East).
Projected Record: 4-12-0 Overall / 2-4-0 Division / 4-8-0 Conference.
I give it until about seven minutes left in the second quarter Sunday, before the "Pat Must Go!" chants break out at Fake Giants Stadium. Considering Pat Shurmur never should have been hired, that seems like a conservative guesstimate, on the exact point the fanbase revolts against this indefensible hire.
29. New York Jets (AFC East).
Projected Record: 4-12-0 Overall / 2-4-0 Division / 4-8-0 Conference.
Drafting Browning Nagle Junior (aka Sam Darnold) might finally be my breaking point with this miserable franchise. (Pause). Jesus, I'll never quit these lovable losers.
28. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (NFC South).
Projected Record: 5-11-0 Overall / 3-3-0 Division / 4-8-0 Conference.
Opening 0-5 (as I project the Bucs will do) does nothing to help inspire confidence in the future of this franchise. Much less the present.
27. Los Angeles "Super" Chargers (AFC West).
Projected Record: 6-10-0 Overall / 2-4-0 Division / 4-8-0 Conference.
This team is 4-11 in games that count prior to October 9th the previous three years. Four. And. Eleven.
(In contrast? The Chiefs are 9-5. (We had the early bye (Week 5) in 2016 to account for a one game difference.) The point being? The Chiefs average being two games ahead of these guys at the quarter point of the season, the last three years. Also, the Chiefs owned divisional wins over the Chargers at the quarter point in both 2016 and 2017, as part of those nine wins and eleven Charger defeats, so make it effectively three games up with eleven to play.)
Their head coach is a blithering idiot, their quarterback has more kids (eight at last count) than playoff berths in his career (five at last count), they play in a stadium that freaking Dolphins fans outnumbered Chargers fans in last fall (to say nothing of every other visitor to wherever the hell they play at), and as if all that isn't damning enough ...
They open vs Chiefs (who they haven't beaten in their last eight attempts) / at Bills (however awful the Bills may be, home openers are always dicey) / at Rams (good luck guys) / vs 49ers (whose fans will definitely outnumber Chargers fans for). That smells like 1-3 at best.
Throw in a brutal last five (at Steelers / vs Bengals / at Chiefs (Thurs) / vs Ravens / at those people), to say nothing of the huge roster improvement of one divisional foe (and that foe ain't the Chiefs, and it ain't the raiders), and this just seems like the preseason darling that is going to sh*t the bed this fall.
Which is what I'm projecting.
26. Chicago Bears (NFC Norris).
Projected Record: 7-9-0 Overall / 3-3-0 Division / 5-7-0 Conference.
I actually have the Bears at 6-4 going to Detroit on Turkey Day, before the floor collapses. (The last six is brutal folks -- roadies to the Lions, 49ers and Vikings, plus home games against the Rams and Packers.) I also have the Bears with a better final record than a third place finisher, and a second place finisher, in other divisions. But since I project them to finish last in the NFC Norris, they fall into Tier One.
The compass is pointed north in the Windy City for once. There's a future here worth looking forward to for once.
25. Indianapolis Colts (AFC South).
Projected Record: 8-8-0 Overall / 3-3-0 Division / 6-6-0 Conference.
I have the Indianapolis Colts in a "win and they're in" finale against the Titans. (Hint: they won't win.) If Andrew Luck is healthy, this team will be in the wildcard mix, if not in the hunt for the AFC South. But that's one gigantic big "if".
Tier Two: The Third Place Finishers.
24. Buffalo Bills (AFC East).
Projected Record: 5-11-0 Overall / 3-3-0 Division / 5-7-0 Conference.
At least that Monday Nighter against the Patriots should be fun for their fans. Because not much else this year, will be.
23. Cleveland Browns (AFC Norris).
Projected Record: 8-8-0 Overall / 4-2-0 Division / 6-6-0 Conference.
I have the Browns on the fringe of things for a wild card berth entering December. This team is finally headed in the
22. those people (AFC West).
Projected Record: 8-8-0 Overall / 2-4-0 Division / 6-6-0 Conference.
The clusterf*ck at 9-7 / 8-8 in the AFC is so f*cking beautiful I nearly cried watching it play out. Not one, not two, not three, not four, not five, not six, not seven, but eight -- eight! -- AFC squads at 8-8 or 9-7, with a ninth at 7-9, and two more at 10-6. Five of those eleven, are making the playoffs.
Thankfully, one of those
There's a reason why my first task at tailgating every week (after getting the Bus unloaded of course), is to lynch that despicable mascot with his five nooses, stuff that Chiefs pacifier in his demonic face, and slap the Chiefs diaper on him. And that reason is to give each and every fan the ability to let Cinco Noose Donkey know exactly what we think of him and his people. (Hint: his helmet was broken due to a drunken meltdown by someone (cough me cough) after the 2015 defeat to those people.)
Anyways, back to the Poll. If only because a pole is the only thing any female those people fan is even remotely qualified, to work on.
21. Atlanta "Shane" Falcons (NFC South).
Projected Record: 8-8-0 Overall / 3-3-0 Division / 6-6-0 Conference.
Surprise? Somebody has to finish third in the South, and I'm fairly confident it won't be New Orleans, which leaves the "Shane" Falcons and Panthers to battle it out for the "honors". Having six of their last nine (including all three divisional ones) on the road killed their stretch run.
20. Philadelphia Eagles (NFC East).
Projected Record: 8-8-0 Overall / 3-3-0 Division / 6-6-0 Conference.
For those who think I'm nuts for picking the Eagles third, I remind you, I picked them to finish first last year, and win a playoff game once they got there. Find another prognosticator with the foresight to have done that, at this time last season.
The Eagles last four buried them; I have them losing all three roadies in that stretch (Rams, Cowboys, Redskins), to miss the postseason.
19. San Francisco 49ers (NFC West).
Projected Record: 9-7-0 Overall / 4-2-0 Division / 7-5-0 Conference.
The first six are going to kill the 49ers. I have them controlling their own destiny for a wild card berth entering the finale (which I have them losing) despite opening 2-4. Brighter days are ahead for these guys for sure.
18. Minnesota Vikings (NFC Norris).
Projected Record: 9-7-0 Overall / 3-3-0 Division / 6-6-0 Conference.
I have the Vikings beating the 49ers in Week One, hence the higher ranking despite the 49ers superior conference record.
I just ... I can't explain it. There's three teams that everyone seems to love this year that I think are going to regress. One is your "Super" Chargers. The Vikings are the second. I don't like f*cking with chemistry at the quarterback position, that's working. (See Chiefs, 1997-1998). I really don't like f*cking with it for someone outside the building that doesn't know the playbook, doesn't know the culture, doesn't know the franchise. (See Chiefs, 1997-1998).
Week Sixteen wound up being the Vikings kryptonite. If they had won in Week Sixteen, they not only would have made the playoffs, they would have been the three seed as NFC Norris champs.
17. Jacksonville Jaguars (AFC South).
Projected Record: 9-7-0 Overall / 3-3-0 Division / 6-6-0 Conference.
Postseason: AFC Second Wild Card (Sixth Seed Overall).
Every year (or so it seems), some team blindly / drunkenly / stonedly (is that a word?) / by the skin of its' ass, sneaks into the playoffs, by literally losing their way into them. The Titans did it last year, losing three of four. I have two of them doing it this year, one being the Jags.
I have the Jaguars losing three of their last four, and five of their last seven, yet never really being in danger of missing the playoffs (I have the Jags clinching at least a wild card berth in Week Fifteen).
Still, in the AFC, where I have exactly six squads with a winning record, don't sleep on anyone. Anyone can win this thing, save for the Ravens and probably the Jets.
Tier Three: The Second Place Finishers.
16. Miami Dolphins (AFC East).
Projected Record: 7-9-0 Overall / 3-3-0 Division / 6-6-0 Conference.
Someone in this sh*ttacular division has to finish second.
15. Pittsburgh Steelers (AFC Norris).
Projected Record: 8-8-0 Overall / 4-2-0 Division / 6-6-0 Conference.
And this is the third team everyone is hyping, that I don't get the hype for.
I just don't see it. They lose a rock solid offensive coordinator, (al michaels voice) Ben is a year older, LeVeon Bell is holding out, Ryan Shazier can inspire but he can't tackle, and ... I mean, should I go on?
These guys remind me of the 2004 Chiefs, the 2010 Chargers, the 2017 Cowboys -- teams with the talent to make the playoffs, that for a variety of reasons, fail to get there. (Also, teams that indefensibly sh*t the bed at home in the Divisional Round, the year before. Those are the teams that tend to regress the following season. Probably because they're as hung over as I usually am, after a Chiefs "how the hell did this happen?" defeat in January.)
14. oakland raiders (AFC West).
Projected Record: 8-8-0 Overall / 3-3-0 Division / 8-4-0 Conference.
raiders finish ahead of those people via head to head sweep.
I also have the raiders in complete and total control of their own destiny, entering Week Sixteen. Win out and they're in. I project they won't. Which means they're the first team out in the AFC, via tiebreakers that I refuse to try to re-run. (When you have a five way clusterf*ck at 8-8, and strength of victory starts getting tossed around, it's time to call it a day.)
13. Carolina Panthers (NFC South).
Projected Record: 9-7-0 Overall / 3-3-0 Division / 6-6-0 Conference.
I project the finale at New Orleans to not only be a "win and you're in" scenario for both teams, I project that it's a "win and you're the division champs, lose and you miss the playoffs entirely" scenario for both teams.
(My way of saying, I project NBC to flex this one, into the final Sunday night slot.)
A de-facto playoff game to end the season between two hated rivals, who just met in the playoffs last year.
I love this sport sometimes.
12. Green Bay Packers (NFC Norris).
Projected Record: 10-6-0 Overall / 3-3-0 Division / 6-6-0 Conference.
No, I do not have the Green Bay Packers in the playoffs, although in this case, it is entirely their own fault. I have them losing head to head to both wild card teams (which eliminates them, if I read the tiebreaker rules correctly, in a three way tie between teams in three different divisions), and I have the Lions with a better conference record, which costs them the division (again, if I read the tiebreaker rules right, and after doing this schedule run across parts of three days, I'm not re-reading them until December).
I also want to get on record that Mike McCarthy will be the stunning "whoa! Dude got sh*t canned!" firing come December 31st.
11. Houston Texans (AFC South).
Projected Record: 9-7-0 Overall / 3-3-0 Division / 7-5-0 Conference.
Postseason: AFC First Wild Card (Fifth Seed Overall).
Texans earn tiebreaker over the Jaguars via conference record.
I have the Texans winning five of their last six to get in (the sole defeat being at Philly). And all I can say, is that if the Texans get in on a hot streak, with Deshaun Watson fully healthy under center, look out, AFC playoff bracket. Look out.
10. Seattle Seahawks (NFC West).
Projected Record: 10-6-0 Overall / 4-2-0 Division / 7-5-0 Conference.
Postseason: NFC Second Wild Card (Sixth Seed Overall).
I have the Seahawks at 6-5 after a defeat in Carolina. They have four of their last five at home (the roadie is at the 49ers). My way of saying, if the Seahawks are 6-5 entering Week Thirteen, they're going to get to ten wins, and ten wins coupled with the tiebreakers I envision them having (Green Bay and Dallas both travel to Seattle earlier in the season) get them in. Barely.
One last gasp for these guys.
I don't project it's going to last long.
9. Washington Redskins (NFC East).
Projected Record: 10-6-0 Overall / 3-3-0 Division / 8-4-0 Conference.
Postseason: NFC First Wild Card (Fifth Seed Overall).
Say what you want about "Sir" Alex Smith, but the bottom line is that in his time in Kansas City, he averaged 10 wins a season, made the playoffs four out of five years (winning two division titles), and the year the Chiefs missed the postseason, they missed it on tiebreakers.
Why would you expect anything else, because he goes from one reasonably solid roster to another? I don't. The Redskins know what they're trading for. Given that fanbase's expectations, this probably won't end well, but at least it won't begin as a dumpster fire.
Tier Four: The Division Champions.
8. Cincinnati Bengals (AFC Norris).
Projected Record: 9-7-0 Overall / 4-2-0 Division / 7-5-0 Conference.
Postseason: NFC Norris Champions (Fourth Seed Overall).
I have the Bengals at 9-3, at least two games clear of every other projected AFC Division leader, entering Week Fourteen.
I think we can all guess, how this is going to end.
Your AFC Norris Schedule Run:
7. New Orleans Saints (NFC South).
Projected Record: 9-7-0 Overall / 3-3-0 Division / 7-5-0 Conference.
Postseason: NFC South Champions (Fourth Seed Overall).
Saints earn tiebreaker over Panthers via conference record.
I probably have them a win or two too low, to be honest, and probably a seed or two too low as well, but good teams don't give a damn about their seed. They only care about being a seed, to ensure a game or four in January.
And the Saints? Are a damned good team.
Your NFC South Schedule Run:
6. Detroit Lions (NFC Norris).
Projected Record: 10-6-0 Overall / 3-3-0 Division / 7-5-0 Conference.
Postseason: NFC Norris Champions (Third Seed Overall).
Lions win tiebreaker over the Packers via conference record.
Since I have nothing to add, your NFC Norris Schedule Run:
5. Kansas City Chiefs (AFC West).
Projected Record: 10-6-0 Overall / 5-1-0 Division / 8-4-0 Conference.
Postseason: AFC West Champions (Third Seed Overall).
In the interest of full disclosure, I am a Chiefs Season Ticket Member. (Section 132 Represent!) So if you want to yell that the schedule run was rigged? Feel free; nobody's stopping you.
(Or disagreeing with you.)
But also, in the interest of fairness and honesty, if the "Super" Chargers implode early (as they always do), what other outcome is there for the AFC West? I mean sh*t, we did everything but shove the division into the raiders and "Super" Chargers laps last year. The Chiefs dropped five of six, fell into a three way tie at 6-6 with four weeks left, with the raiders and Chargers coming to Arrowhead, where the Chiefs had lost two straight and three of four. We did everything short of waving the white flag, and no other team could step into the void! (The Chiefs pounded the raiders and Chargers, to effectively clinch the division, with two weeks to play.)
Do you think those people are getting to ten wins? I had to stretch to get them to eight! Do you think the raiders are getting to ten wins? I have them at 5-7 with four to play, and before you note the "yeah, but they can beat the Chiefs at home", do I have to go there? I guess I do.
"Fat" Andy Reid coming off a bye week? Is damned near unbeatable.
(He's won his last four exiting a bye, and is 14-3 career the week after the bye.)
Our bye week falls?
The week before the trip to the Bay.
Until I see evidence that one of these other three pretenders is ready to get serious about challenging for the division, the default is your two time defending champ.
Soon to be three time defending champ.
Your AFC West Schedule Run:
4. Dallas Cowboys (NFC East).
Projected Record: 10-6-0 Overall / 4-2-0 Division / 8-4-0 Conference.
Postseason: NFC East Champions (Second Overall Seed).
Cowboys win tiebreaker over Redskins via divisional record.
And here's where one Week One projection -- Cowboys over Panthers -- altered everything in the NFC.
The Cowboys win gives them the two seed and a bye; keeps the Packers out of the playoffs entirely, hands the NFC South to New Orleans, and knocks the Panthers out of the playoffs entirely.
A Carolina win? Gives the Redskins the NFC East and the two seed (I project the Redskins beat the Panthers in Week Six), the Panthers the NFC South and the three seed, and gets the Packers into the playoffs as the six seed.
My head hurts. Here's your NFC East Schedule Run:
3. New England Patriots (AFC East).
Projected Record: 10-6-0 Overall / 4-2-0 Division / 8-4-0 Conference.
Postseason: AFC East Champions (Second Seed Overall).
Patriots win tiebreaker over Chiefs for second seed via Week Six victory.
I think this is the year New England finally regresses to the mean ... but come on. That division is so f*cking awful 6-10 might win it by two games.
Your AFC East Schedule Run:
2. Tennessee Titans (AFC South).
Projected Record: 11-5-0 Overall / 3-3-0 Division / 8-4-0 Conference.
Postseason: AFC South Champions (First Seed Overall).
I'm probably more stunned than you.
Your AFC South Schedule Run:
1. Los Angeles Rams (NFC West).
Projected Record: 11-5-0 Overall / 4-2-0 Division / 8-4-0 Conference.
Postseason: NFC West Champions (First Seed Overall).
I am not even remotely surprised by this. If anything, I'm stunned the Rams topped out at only eleven wins. To say I'm high on this team, is about as grouse an understatement as noting I went through my 20s drunk, my 30s stoned, and I'm paying for my 20s and 30s in my 40s.
Your NFC West Schedule Run:
Finally ...
Tier Five: The Postseason.
Wild Card Round.
* Saturday, January 5, 2019, 3:30pm CT (ESPN / ABC):
5 Houston Texans 31, at 4 Cincinnati Bengals 21.
You betting on the Bengals to win in the postseason? Because I've been there, done that, and refuse to do it again.
* Saturday, January 5, 2019, 7:30pm CT (NBC):
6 Seattle Seahawks 27, at 3 Detroit Lions 41.
Holy hell, Detroit itself might burn to the ground if this result happens. #riotaway
* Sunday, January 6, 2019, noon CT (FOX):
5 Washington Redskins 13, at 4 New Orleans Saints 34.
It was fun while it lasted, 'Skins.
* Sunday, January 6, 2019, 3:30pm CT (CBS):
6 Jacksonville Jaguars 13, 3 Kansas City Chiefs 23.
Speaking of cities that might burn themselves to the ground because the home football team finally won a home playoff game, my home town everybody! Just please spare Waldo, that's all I ask. I kind of like where I live.
Divisional Round.
* Saturday, January 12, 2019, 3:30pm CT (NBC):
3 Kansas City Chiefs 27, at 2 New England Patriots 20.
If The Sanchize can win a divisional round game in Foxboro? If Joe Freaking Flacco can win a conference championship game in Foxboro? Then Patrick Mahomes "Of the Chiefs" can too, god*mmit.
* Saturday, January 12, 2019, 7:30pm (FOX):
4 New Orleans Saints 38, at 1 Los Angeles Rams 41 (OT).
Your de-facto Super Bowl. And it is going to be great to watch.
* Sunday, January 13, 2019, noon CT (CBS):
5 Houston Texans 38, at 1 Tennessee Titans 31.
Watson! Mariota! Texans! Titans! Nantz! Romo! ONLY ... CBS!!!!!
(And about 35 million viewers drooling over every snap.)
* Sunday, January 13, 2019, 3:30pm CT (FOX):
3 Detroit Lions 14, at 2 Dallas Cowboys 31.
I guess that would avenge the 1991 Divisional Round?
Conference Championship Round.
* Sunday, January 20, 2019, 2pm CT (FOX):
2 Dallas Cowboys 27, at 1 Los Angeles Rams 34.
NFC Champions: 1 Los Angeles Rams.
* Sunday, January 20, 2019, 5:30pm CT (CBS):
5 Houston Texans 30, at 3 Kansas City Chiefs 35.
They're gonna have to rename the Sports Complex "Lake Arrowhead" once I'm done crying.
AFC Champions: 3 Kansas City Chiefs.
Super Bowl LIII.
* Sunday, February 3, 2019, 5:20pm CT (CBS).
1 Los Angeles Rams 34, 3 Kansas City Chiefs 24.
Super Bowl Champions: Los Angeles Rams.
Friday, September 21, 2012
the week three picks: call me a dreamer, say i'm a little naive ...
“They said you ain’t got a prayer.
A chance in you know where.
But I just didn’t care,
When I looked in your eyes.
You were a long shot from the start,
An easy way to break my heart.
But as perfect as you are?
You gotta risk it all sometimes.
I believe in the underdog!
Who chases dreams and breaks down walls!
The shy kid who gets the prom queen,
Who’s never been the star of anything.
And those two lovers hitched at City Hall?
They’ve got each other, so they’ve got it all.
Call me a dreamer, say I’m a little naïve –
But I BELIEVE!!! In
the underdog …”
Last Week ATS: 7-9-0.
Season to Date ATS: 15-17-0.
Last Week SU: 7-9-0.
Season to Date SU: 18-14-0.
Last Week “Screw You Pete King” Upset / Week: If you hate
the denver broncos, then my pick accomplished its purpose. If you’re a degenerate gambler, I
apologize. And yes, I realize I am
apologizing to myself …
Season to Date “Screw You Pete King” Upset / Week: 1-1-0 SU,
1-1-0 ATS.
This Week’s “Screw You Pete King” Upset of the Week: I
wouldn’t say it unless I truly believed it was going to happen. (cue “the congregation” edging to the, uuh,
edge of their seats.) Yes, I’m going
there, that’s how strongly I believe in this pick this week. This week’s Upset of the Week? “Take a mother f*cking guess.”
The Non-Chiefs, Non-Jets Best Guesses:
* at Panthers (-3) 34, Giants 20. Cam Newton, welcome back to the national
stage. December 2nd cannot
get here soon enough! Seriously, Chiefs
fans – no matter how ugly it might get, in an eight day stretch right after
Thanksgiving, we get to see peyton manning and Cam Newton do their thing in person! (With Andrew Luck to come three weeks after
Cam!) I am so freaking geeked to see Cam
play in person. I haven’t been this
excited for an Arrowhead debut since a ridiculously underrated quarterback by
the name of Chadwick Pennington took the sacred turf at Arrowhead to open the
2005 season.
* at Colts 19, Jaguars (+3) 17. Honestly, this is coming down to a last
second field goal. Smells like a 19-16 contest. Other than that, I got nothing.
* Bills (-2 ½) 28, at Browns 17. The Bills aren’t as good as we made them look
last week. And the Browns are nowhere
near as good as the Bengals made them look last week. Fifteen weeks until unemployment, Pat
Shurmur. Fifteen weeks to go! (cue every Browns fan clapping rabidly in
anticipation …)
* at Redskins (-3) 21, Bengals 17. Another field goal game. The board is loaded with close, competitive
contests this week. Huge early game for
both teams, to guarantee at least a .500 record entering October.
* at Titans (+3 ½) 27, Lions 20. Careful, Titans – the failsafe line is
rapidly approaching. It would behoove you
to not risk falling three back only three weeks into the season.
* 49ers 24, at Vikings (+6 ½) 21. A huge early statement game for the Vikings,
who arguably should be 2-0 right now, but will happily settle for 1-1 given how
their first two games have finished.
Likewise, San Fran can open 3-0 against the NFC North, two of those
three on the road … and know they still have four potential layup NFC West wins
awaiting them.
* Bucs (+8) 31, at Cowboys 30. I fear the epic fourth quarter collapse last
week is going to screw my preseason NFC Champion pick come January. You simply cannot piss away 21 point leads on
the road. Especially when that 21 point
lead, had it held up, would have all but buried the defending Super Bowl
champions.
* at Bears (-7) 31, Rams 13.
The number of people picking the Rams to win outright is insane. You idiots on the Rams bandwagon do realize
that if Josh Morgan hadn’t decided to retaliate against all-world turd Cortland
Finnegan using his head as a bongo drum, that the Redskins at least force
overtime, right? Having said that, I
trust you all saw who one of the 18 (now 17) remaining “Survivor” castaways is
this year, right? HIT IT! “You take the good, you take the bad, you
take them both, and then you have …” the
“Facts of Life” Game of the Week! Oh
hell yes, Ms. Blair Warner is on “Survivor” this season! (And oh hell yes! I am old enough to remember tuning in every
Saturday night to “learn(ing) the Facts of Life”! Anyone remember who Jo’s boyfriend was during
it’s final season? (cue “jeopardy” music
…) and … time. George Clooney
everyone! Who went from that (should
have destroyed his career) move to playing Jackie’s boyfriend on “Roseanne”,
before finally landing as Doug Ross on “ER”.
Yes, I have earned my title as the “King of Useless Trivia”, thank you
very much!)
* at Cardinals (+3) 13, Eagles 10. I have no idea how they’re going to do
it. But they will. Arizona!
“Super” Cardinals! Arizona! Cardinals!
(And no … for the fiftieth time, since it happened on a roadie to see
said “Super” Cardinals (my God) eleven years ago now: turning on the faucet
does NOT hide the sounds of you (h-town voice) knocking the boots in the bathroom. Oh, life is great at the Super 8!!! (dan dierdorf voice) Nice try though …)
* Falcons (+3) 35, at Chargers 27. I honestly don’t know who has the double
header this week* … but either way, we’re getting an EPIC early regular season
3pm game on our televisions. Because the
other early season classic …
* at broncos (+2) 41, Texans 20. Uum, yes, teacher, a quick question. HOW IN THE HELL ARE THE HOUSTON TEXANS
FAVORED IN DENVER?!?!?!?! We’ve seen
denver at their rock bottom worst … and their rock bottom worst has them, with
the ball, with a shot to tie, on the road, against either the best or 2nd
best team in the NFC. How in the HELL
are the Houston Texans favored? On the
road? In denver? Sorry, I’m not falling for this. peyton’s gonna have a field day on
Sunday. I can’t wait to watch. (And root to be completely wrong about my
feelings entering this game.)
(*: UPDATE! CBS has
the double header … but here in KC, we get both Houston / denver and Atlanta /
San Diego as local viewing options in the late slot. Well slap my ass and call me Sparky, that’s
great news!)
* Steelers (-3 ½) 31, at raiders 10. Is it too early to contemplate 0-6 oakland at
0-6 Kansas City as the CBS stand alone national game on October 28th*? It isn’t?
(Cue Les Moonves firing whoever designated that matchup as the national
slot …)
(*: it is definitely not too early to note that this game,
God willing, will be the “Restore the Tradition” tailgate for 2012. Not sure if we’ll be back at the crosswalk in
Lot N, or somewhere closer to the new spot in G30 … but for one fun Sunday, we’re
throwing the clock back to a time when steak kabobs or Hayward’s burnt ends
were the given for the main course, the Hooters wings were fresh out of the
box, the Dr. Pepper was ice cold, and Gregg’s mom would spend three straight
hours giving me and Jasson death stares for daring to bring a 12 pack of
Boulevard Wheat into the tailgate. Plus
there may or may not be a half eaten bag of Oreos for dessert. Oh sweet Jesus, how I miss it sometimes. I might even have to stop in at Dick’s one
night on the way home and buy four or five orange cones to truly do the “restoration”
properly. More details to come as they
become available …)
* at Ravens (-2 ½) 28, Patriots 24. Tremendous Sunday nighter. One of these teams will be 1-2 after this
game. Unbelievable. (Although the most unbelievable stat? If the Pats lose, they will be under .500 for
the first time since? (cue “jeopardy”
music …) and … time. Week 3 2003! No, seriously! The last time the Pats were under .500 at ANY
time during the season, was September 27, 2003!
(john davidson voice) That’s Incredible!)
* at Seahawks (-3 ½) 31, Packers 20. I cannot imagine how loud Qwest Field is
going to be Monday night. Actually, I
can imagine it … and cannot wait to hear it booming out of my television.
The Jets Prediction:
How best to put a mediocre Jets team visiting a horrendous
Dolphins squad … I know! I know!
“Tebow returns home,
To South Florida, that’s right.
Sadly, he won’t score as much as
Kid! (Clap!)
Dy-No-Mite!!!”
Ain’t we lucky we got ‘em?
(da da da da da) GOOD TIMES!!!
Jets (-2 ½) 31, at Dolphins 3.
The Chiefs Prognostication:
Last week, I was absolutely convinced the Chiefs were going
to get rolled at the Ralph. And they
did.
This week … I am even more convinced that the Chiefs are not
only going to win on Sunday, it’s going to be a relatively comfortable
victory. Not my favorite type of victory
– that would be a home win in mid to late September, where the Chiefs lead by three
touchdowns at the half on a sunny 80 degree afternoon, where you can lean back
in the seat, kick the feet up on the chair in front of you, and go into full on
“one last day to get a decent tan” mode for the entire second half. (Let’s hope that’s next week’s outcome. (pause).
If it is, I apologize to whoever is stuck next to the pasty white guy
with his shirt off trying to milk the sun for all it’s worth.)
I know that a great many people spent this week in full on
meltdown mode after last Sunday, and to be fair, I did as well for about one
evening. But you know what has me
encouraged?
Is what we DIDN’T hear this week. Nobody pulled an Elvis Grbac in 1998 and
tossed his teammates under the bus.
Nobody pulled a Gunther Cunningham from 2000 and literally had their
sanity questioned from stressing over a losing streak. Nobody pulled a Marty in 1996 and
panic-benched his quarterback for the unknown just because he could.
To a man, and to their credit, there was not one person in the
Chiefs organization who exhibited even an ounce of panic this week. Perhaps this is best illustrated by the fact
that nobody felt the need to issue a “vote of confidence” for either GM Scott
Pioli or head coach / all-around baffoon Romeo Crennel.
In what will come as a surprise to noone, I was (and still
am) a fan of pretty much every crappy 1980s drama. I cannot get enough “Hunter” in my life. I’ll defend “Hill Street Blues” as THE most
influential television show of all time against any argument you can throw at
it. (Wait, scratch “crappy” – “Hill
Street Blues” was anything but crappy). And
of all the crappy shows, one stands above them all: the A-Team.
In the third episode of the series, “The Children of
Jamestown”, Hannibal and his crew are assigned to rescue a chick under the
influence of a wacko nut-job religious cult.
(In the interest of fairness: is there any other kind of religious cult
other than “wacko nut-job”? No? OK, whew.
I didn’t think so.)
And Hannibal (played by the late, great George Peppard)
drops a line about halfway through that I still plagarize to this day.
“It’s always darkest just before it goes pitch black.”
Last Sunday at Buffalo, through the first three
quarters? Was blackness. The punt return for a touchdown? Was pitch black. There’s nowhere to go but up.
Consider, for one brief second, what a win on Sunday would
do for this team. It will give the
Chiefs a very reasonable chance to be tied for first after the month of
September (Chargers go vs Falcons, then at Arrowhead; donkeys go vs Texans
(where, again, somehow they’re a home dog, and I’ll be damned if I know how),
then a tricky trip to the Black Hole against the raiders, before traveling east
to open October in Foxboro.)
A win on Sunday, and what looks like a lost cause, suddenly
is a season saved from the brink. But
whatever happens Sunday, please – don’t panic.
You can recover from 0-3. If the
Chiefs lose Sunday, drop to 0-3, and head home for the must-win of all must-win
September games against the Chargers? So
be it.
This team, after all, opened 0-3 last year, and wound up one missed field goal from 48 yards away (pick which one against the raiders) from winning the division. And that's with starting three different starting QBs, Jackie Battle at RB, and employing two head coaches. (Plus the proverbial partridge in a pear tree (rimshot!) I'm telling you, these one liners write themselves!)
But I don’t think that’s gonna happen. I think the Chiefs are going to win, and win
relatively easily* on Sunday. I think the
Chiefs offense is going to light up the scoreboard. I think our defense is finally going to force
a turnover. And a sack to boot! I just have a very strange, calm feeling
about this game.
(*: for what it’s worth?
I have the same calm, relaxed feeling about the election in 45
days. I am absolutely convinced Barack
Obama is going to lose in a landslide, even if the rigged polls don’t show that
yet. I believe in this country. I believe we are not the 47%, we are the
53%. And the 53% will save us from the
brink of catastrophe.)
The last time I was this calm entering a Chiefs game,
honestly? Was at oakland last fall. I remember showing up for my usual watching
spot for a September / October road game (aka “the back deck”), and when I was
asked what I thought would happen, I said “the Chiefs win comfortably”.
The Chiefs won 28-0.
It won’t be that easy Sunday – after all, we’re not facing
carson palmer. But I do think it will be
far, far easier than most Chiefs fans think, and far, far more painful for the
Saints than their fans anticipate.
Chiefs (+9) 34, at Saints 20. And since my Upset of the Week is this game,
via my patented “really? You’re actually
asking me who my Upset of the Week is?!?!” catchphrase I haul out on extremely rare occasions, well, let’s
hope there’s a three word catch phrase coming about 3:15pm on Sunday, that will
truly capture what this win will mean.
Season.
(Blanking). ON!!!
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)