a "fan ... tastic!" post

I can be a strange person at times.

I know, I know, that's a shocking statement. You can pick your jaws up off the floor now. But I certainly am a little bit different at times.
For example, as I type this post up, I'm listening to my iPod. The last six songs, in order, to pop up: "Slow Hand" by Conway Twitty, "He Got Game" by Public Enemy, "Mad" by Ne-Yo, "Hands Held High" by Linkin Park, "The Horizon Has Been Defeated" by Jack Johnson, and "God Only Knows" by the Beach Boys. I defy anyone to come up with a play list more diverse.

(Side Rant Numero Uno: for pure comedic value, again, just for pure comedic value ... has there ever been a more hilarious song recorded than "Slow Hand" by Conway Twitty? The entire premise of the song is funny enough. But to have a sixty something year old Conway Twitty praising through song his ability to get a chick off via said "slow hand"? It's just priceless. I bust out loud laughing every time I hear this song. It's just fifty levels of awesome. Plus, the way Conway sings it, especially as you reach the end, it's a freaking lounge act. You can picture the boozy piano player, the smoke filled room, and Conway working the stage like a carnival barker).

But perhaps my strangest trait, and God knows there's like 50,000 of them to choose from, is that I am absolutely addicted to the NBA. I grew up in and still live in KC, the college hoops mecca of the nation ... and I'd choose to watch a pro game 100 times out of 100 when given the choice between college or pros. Don't get me wrong, I like the college game, but I love the pro game.

And starting Saturday at high noon, when the Bulls and Pacers tip things off at the United Center, my favorite stretch of sporting action every year begins. Forty Games in Forty Nights. Forty straight days of Chuck Barkley, Kenny Smith, Chris "Big ... Bigger ..." Webber! and (hopefully) Jalen Rose hogging the nation's television screens. Forty straight days of "Yes! And it counts!" by Marv Albert, "Oh Baby What a Play!" out of Kevin Harlan, forty straight days of the best color commentator crew in all of pro sports (Mike Breen, Jeff Van Gundy, Mark Jackson). I love it.

(Side rant numero dos: please unsuspend Mr. Rose for the playoffs, ESPN. We all make dumb mistakes in life. Who amongst us hasn't hit a stop sign after driving off a road doing 80 mph with a BAC of .21? Come on. Unsuspend the dude already).

So, here's my NBA Playoff Predictions for Round One. And a few other assorted thoughts for what might happen after that ...

(all tip-off times CDT)

Eastern Conference:

1 Bulls vs 8 Pacers
Game 1: at Chicago, noon, Saturday April 16 (ESPN)
Game 2: at Chicago, 8:30pm, Monday April 18 (TNT)
Game 3: at Indiana, 6pm, Thursday April 21 (NBATV)
Game 4: at Indiana, 1:30pm, Saturday April 23 (TNT)

I stopped listing the games at four, because that's all the Bulls are going to need. Six months ago, nobody saw this Bulls juggernaut coming. They certainly were an intriguing team -- young, talented, entertaining as hell to watch. They signed Carlos Boozer, hired Tom Thibodeau to replace the nitwit Vinny Del Negro, and given the weak division the Bulls play in, certainly you could have seen a top three seed and maybe putting the fear of God into someone in round two.

But this? Top seed in the East? Home court advantage throughout the playoffs? What a great year to be a Bulls fan! (Which I most assuredly am not. I loathe and despise the Bulls. I still have nightmares of Charles Smith bricking three straight layups to p*ss away game five of the 1993 Eastern Finals).

The Pacers also are a young team on the rise. But they're in the same spot the Bulls were a couple years ago -- making their postseason debut, facing a vastly superior team that is better than them at every spot on the floor, and has a discernable coaching advantage as well. I think the Pacers put up a fight, if only because I don't buy into this Bulls team yet. I wouldn't even be all that surprised if the Pacers take one at home (the only divisional game the Bulls lost all season, was to the Pacers three weeks ago at Conseco). But win this series? No freaking way. Not unless Carlos Boozer, Derrick Rose, and Joakim Noah are all kidnapped and held for ransom at an undisclosed location for the entire series. And even then, I'd still probably take Chicago in six. Since nobody wants to see a federal crime go down, I'll say all three guys make it to the arena on time, and cruise from there.

Bulls in four.

2 Heat vs 7 76ers
Game 1: at Miami, 2:30pm, Saturday April 16 (ABC)
Game 2: at Miami, 6pm, Monday April 18 (TNT)
Game 3: at Philly, 7pm, Thursday April 21 (TNT)
Game 4: at Philly, noon, Sunday April 24 (ABC)

Unlike the Bulls / Pacers series, this one will need additional games, but since they're all still TBA on the official schedule, I'll just add the first four.

The 76ers can absolutely win this series. I know that sounds ridiculous, but all the Heat have are the MoHeatos. All they have is LBJ, Wade, and Bosh. Which, granted, is one helluva core, and is capable of beating anyone, anywhere, anytime. And I do expect Miami to eventually pull through and win this series. I just think it's gonna be a helluva lot tougher than anyone outside of the 76ers locker room thinks it's going to be.

Philly is a tough defensive team. They will get physical when LeBron drives the lane. They will hammer Wade as he drives baseline. Also, the 76ers are a great story in and of themselves. After opening 1-13, they finished at .500. That's a 40-28 close to the season. Not too shabby. They had a winning record in a division that includes Boston and New York, they went 26-15 at home, and they were .500 in the conference. After starting 1-13. Immense credit to Doug Collins for not letting this team quit, and instead somehow coaxing solid seasons out of Elton Brand's corpse, Andre Igoudala, and Jrue Holliday.

If the 76ers can steal game one or two, it could be a replay of two years ago, when they stole game one in Orlando, and took the Magic to a sixth game before the far-superior Magic finally emerged victorious. I envision something similar this year. Philly gets to game five tied at two, before dropping the final two to let the Heat advance.

Heat in six.

3 Celtics vs 6 Knicks
Game 1: at Boston, 6pm, Sunday April 17 (TNT).
Game 2: at Boston, 6pm, Tuesday April 19 (TNT).
Game 3: at New York, 6pm, Friday April 22 (ESPN).
Game 4: at New York, 2:30pm, Sunday April 24 (ABC).

The key to this series, and possibly the key to how the entire Eastern Conference postseason is going to play out, is game two.

I fully expect the Celtics to win game one, probably comfortably. Playing at home, looking to establish themselves as still the team to beat in the East, I expect a rock solid effort that will simply overwhelm the Knicks. In game one.

Game two, however, is another story. Game two is where the series really begins, where you begin to scheme and adjust for what has been thrown at you. You know what to expect from the crowd, from the court, from the rims. It's when you begin to relax and just play.

And when the Knicks and Celtics simply start to play ... I really, really like the Knicks. The Celtics biggest advantage would seem to be at the point, where Rajon Rondo is still growing into his prime, and the aging Chauncey Billups is still feeling his way into the lineup for New York. But be honest -- do you really expect Billups to suck? Do you really expect Rondo to drop a 25/10 on a proven playoff winner like Chauncey Billups? I don't. I think Chauncey rises to the occasion (more specifically, I think Toney Douglas continues his ridiculous three point barrage of the last month -- dude's hitting over 50% from three land since the Melo deal. That's insane), and the Knicks steal game two.

And send it back to the best home court advantage in the League for games three and four. What, you don't think the Gahden will be filled to the ceiling with Knicks fans who've waited ten freaking years to watch their team win a playoff game? For the first time since that awful elimination game against the Raptors in 2001 that destroyed the franchise in it's aftermath, the Knicks are relevant again. They're decent. And if you give Knicks fans a reason to believe, just a reason to hope, nobody can carry a team like they can. The Gahden is a magical place when the Knicks are good. It's a truly magical place when the Knicks are in the playoffs.

This is my one Eastern Conference upset. I don't care that the Knicks couldn't stop a junior high team from scoring 110 points. It's a Mike D'Antoni coached team. Defense is a dirty word. I'm more interested in seeing how the hell the Celtics are going to stop Melo and Amare. I'm more interested in seeing how the Celtics react when the Knicks go small and throw Landry Fields and Toney Douglas onto the court. And I'm really interested in seeing if a team that went 11-11 after the Kendrick Perkins trade can turn it on again in the playoffs, like last year.

My completely uneducated guess is that they won't. My completely biased prediction is that by midway through the fourth quarter of game six, I'll be waving that 99 Finals run towel like a moron, yelling at my television screen what 18,300 plus fired up Knicks fans are chanting in the Gahden:

"Beat Miami! (clap clap clap clap clap!) Beat Miami! (clap clap clap clap clap)"

Knicks in six.

4 Magic vs 5 Hawks
Game 1: at Orlando, 6pm, Saturday April 16 (ESPN).
Game 2: at Orlando, 6:30pm, Tuesday April 19 (NBATV).
Game 3: at Atlanta, 7pm, Friday April 22 (ESPN2).
Game 4: at Atlanta, 6pm, Sunday April 24 (TNT).

There's no need to spend more than about a hundred words discussing this series. It's a horrendous mismatch. The Magic swept the Hawks last year in the second round, winning every game by at least twenty points. If the exact same thing doesn't happen this year, I will be shocked. The only thing more shocking than Atlanta staying within 20 points for even one game, will be if I watch more than 20 minutes of this series. Wake me up when the second round begins.

Magic in four.

Western Conference:

1 Spurs vs 8 Grizzlies
Game 1: at San Antonio, noon, Sunday April 17 (TNT).
Game 2: at San Antonio, 7:30pm, Wednesday April 20 (NBATV).
Game 3: at Memphis, 6:30pm, Saturday April 23 (ESPN).
Game 4: at Memphis, TBD, Monday April 25 (TBD).

I find it somewhat surprising that this is the only first round series that doesn't have four games set in stone already. The eight seed has advanced past round one only three times in NBA playoff history: the 1994 Denver Nuggets (over the Seattle Sonics 3-2), the 2007 Golden State Warriors (over the Dallas Mavericks 4-2), and the only eight seed to ever win a series after that first round, the 1999 Knicks (who beat Miami 3-2, Atlanta 4-0, and Indiana 4-2 to reach the Finals, where they lost 4-1 to the Spurs).

Memphis is fully capable of winning this series. Again, I know that looks preposterous. They finished 20 games behind the Spurs in the standings. One of their key players (Rudy Gay) is out. And the Grizzlies have won a grand total of zero, zip, nada playoff games in their franchise history (they're 0-12).

This is a sneaky good Grizzlies team. They're entertaining as hell to watch. Even OJ Mayo, who so thoroughly disgusts me as a player and as a human being, even he's starting to grow on me. I'd really like to pick the upset here. But I see this one playing out like Philly / Miami. Tied at two after four games, with the better team winning the last two to end it and advance.

Spurs in six.

2 Lakers vs 7 Hornets
Game 1: at Los Angeles, 2:30pm, Sunday April 17 (ABC).
Game 2: at Los Angeles, 9:30pm, Wednesday April 20 (TNT).
Game 3: at New Orleans, 8:30pm, Friday April 22 (ESPN).
Game 4: at New Orleans, 8:30pm, Sunday April 24 (TNT).

This is by far and away the biggest mismatch on the board. The Hornets are dead in the water without David West, who went down a couple weeks ago with a knee. The Lakers aren't losing this series. The only question is if the Hornets can win one of the two at home. I say they won't. Which then leads to the real question involving the Hornets -- is game four the last time the Hornets will play as the home team in New Orleans?

Lakers in four.

3 Mavericks vs 6 Trail Blazers
Game 1: at Dallas, 8:30pm, Saturday April 16 (ESPN).
Game 2: at Dallas, 8:30pm, Tuesday April 19 (TNT).
Game 3: at Portland, 9:30pm, Thursday April 21 (TNT).
Game 4: at Portland, 4pm, Saturday April 23 (TNT).

Ooh. Ooh, ooh, ooh. This is gonna be a fun little series. A Dallas team that seemed to be getting better as the season ended (winding up tied for second in the conference) facing the one team in the West that all the experts seem to think can spring a first round upset. The Blazers are extremely well-coached, they've got talent, and they've got a great home court advantage, all things you could say about nearly every Blazers team since the mid 1980s, including during the Jail Blazer era. And yet, despite that, the Blazers haven't won a playoff series since they beat Utah in the 2000 Western semis. At some point, they have to put the epic Game 7 collapse that year behind them and win a freaking series, right?

(Side note numero tres, and I can't believe I'm only on number three so far: that 2000 Portland team is the last, and I believe only, time in my life when I rooted for the Lakers to win. I am no fan of the Lakers. I am certainly no fan of Kobe Bean Bryant. But that 1999-2000 Blazers team had my most hated player ever as it's face, the utterly unlovable scottie pippen. I will always root for that guy to lose. Always. I laughed my ass off when he had to auction off his valuables and his home because he's now broke and destitute. Good. Go to hell scottie. Go to hell. And yes, my hatred of scottie pippen is directly and completely tied to his multiple fouls he committed on Charles Smith during Chuckie's botched layup drill in game 5 of the 93 Eastern Finals. Yet another reason I'm strange -- 18 years later, and I'm still b*tching about how pippen got away with hammering Chuckie on the back of the head on his third and final attempt. I need therapy).

I really like this Mavs team in this situation though. Gotta give credit where it's due -- this is the 11th consecutive season the Mavericks have won 50 games or more. Every season since the lockout, they've won at least 50 and been in the playoffs. The only other team that can say that is the Spurs. If this is the Mavs last gasp for a while, and you gotta figure that this year or next is that proverbial last gasp, then hopefully they at least get one final crack at the Lakers before the party's over.

Mavs in seven.

4 Thunder vs 5 Nuggets
Game 1: at Oklahoma City, 8:30pm, Sunday April 17 (TNT).
Game 2: at Oklahoma City, 7pm, Wednesday April 20 (TNT).
Game 3: at Denver, 9pm, Saturday April 23 (ESPN).
Game 4: at Denver, 9:30pm, Monday April 25 (TNT).

Of all the first round matchups, this one might be the best.

The Nuggets went 19-7 after the Carmelo trade. They play an up-tempo game that's entertaining as hell to watch. And how can you not love the story of George Karl, overcoming life-threatening throat cancer to return to the sideline and somehow coax 50 wins out of a squad that traded away (arguably) it's two best players at the deadline?

(Side note numero quatro: it's very, very weird to capitalize the word Denver. Really, really weird).

The Thunder also are entertaining as hell to watch, figure to be the West's dominant power over the next five to six years, are extremely well run and coached, and feature a rising stud named Kevin Durant to boot. This is a really entertaining as hell team to watch. And yes, I prefer watching hoops teams that are "entertaining as hell", versus "set the sport back 55 years", like Butler did in the national championship game.

I'll chicken out and say home court holds, each team wins out at home, and the Thunder advance. But can I see Denver winning game one, getting up 3-1 at the Pepsi Center, and then closing it out in six at home? Absolutely.

Thunder in seven.

Some final parting NBA thoughts ...

* The MVP has to be Derrick Rose. Look it, I'm a stats geek, so I understand the pro-Dwight Howard argument. But give me a break. Chicago is lucky to go 35-47 and sneak in as the eight seed without Rose on the roster, and everybody knows it. Isn't that what the MVP should be? The most VALUABLE player? I say it should be. Give him a Tommy Point for his regular season, and now let's see him back it up when it counts.

* The only thing that blows about the NBA postseason? The same as with every other postseason in sports, save for the NFL -- no more local announcers. Subtract fifteen Tommy Points for that. I can't believe that the golden whiskey sour and Marlboro red tainted pipes of Tommy Heinsolm are silenced until ... well, it'll be awhile, who knows how long this roo-eenus lockout coming July 1 is going to last.

* Coach of the Year, good God, how do you vote? George Karl nearly dies, yet milks 50 wins out of a roster with 30 win talent. Tom Thibodeau improves Chicago by 20 plus games in year one despite not having Carlos Boozer and Joakim Noah for huge chunks of the season. Doug Collins takes a 1-13 Sixers squad and reaches .500, solidly in the postseason field. Gregg Popovich somehow willing an aging Spurs team to the top seed in the West, again. I'd probably draw a name out of a hat, not sure I could pick any of these guys over the other fairly.

* Worst Coach of the Year, without question, goes to Larry Drew in Atlanta, who took a promising Hawks team that's reached the second round of the playoffs two years in a row, and had improved its win total eight straight years, to a 44-38 (8 games worse than last year) record, and an almost certain first round catastrophe against the Magic. Thanks for playing Larry. Unlike your son though, at least you didn't quit on your team. (Although his team pretty much has quit on him).

* Most disappointing team has to go to the Milwaukee Bucks. I was probably too optimistic when I saw 52 wins and a Central Division championship in their preseason future. But there's no excuse for what the season turned into. Yes, the Bucks had injuries, but so did the Bulls, and they played through it. No excuse for what happened at the Fortress on Fourth this year. You don't blow it up over one disappointing season, but it would behoove Scotty Skiles to get this team back into the playoffs whenever the hell the next League season is.

* If James Dolan really lets Donnie Walsh walk and rehires Isiah Thomas to run the Knicks, as everyone seems to think is going to happen, he officially becomes the dumbest idiot of all time. This revisionist history that Jason Whitlock and others have seemed to take regarding Zeke's post-career legacy is absolutely insane. The bottom line is this: the CBA was a profitable, functioning minor league before Thomas took it over. It ceased to exist two years later. The Indiana Pacers were coming off three straight Eastern Finals appearances and a NBA Finals loss to the Lakers when Thomas took over as coach. They went .500, then missed the playoffs altogether. The Knicks weren't great when Zeke took over, but they sure as all hell weren't $69 million over the cap, out of first round draft picks until 2012, and carrying a 370lb deadweight named Eddy Curry on the roster. Not to mention such winning acquisitions as Stephon Marbury, Stevie Francis, Penny Hardaway, Jerome James, and Jalen Rose, whose combined salaries coupled with the luxury tax paid to acquire said salaries was just about large enough to purchase the Hornets and move them to the Sprint Centre. Isiah Thomas is a good guy, and a helluva player. He's also the lousiest executive to run a "company" since Roger B. Smith was given control of General Motors.

* Second round predictions: Bulls over Magic in five, Knicks over Heat in six; Spurs over Thunder in five, Mavs over Lakers in six.

* Conference final predictions: Bulls over Knicks in seven; Mavs over Spurs in six.

(Side note number five: if this predicted Eastern Final happens as predicted, just assume I need to be put on a 24 hour suicide watch. Remove my belt, shoe laces, and any loose sheets near me to prevent a hanging. Remove all knives, guns, and other assorted objects of violence from my possession. Just please leave the alcohol available and in plain sight, because I will definitely be going on a bender. I honestly don't think I can handle another f*cking loss to those f*ckers in the Eastern Finals. I really don't think I can take it. Again, I need therapy. Badly).

(Side note number six: this thing is what, almost 5 pages in at this point, and those were the first two f bombs. I never thought I'd see a post where it took five pages before I dropped my favorite word. Either I'm maturing, or that was an incredible brain fart. I'm going with the latter. After all, f*ck is the only word in the English language that can be used as all eight types of speech! It can be used as a noun, verb, pronoun, adjective, adverb, preposition, interjection, and conjunction. Granted, the verb usage is the most fun, but you gotta love that no matter how you use the word, it's technically grammatically correct! There's your neat f*cking trivia fact of this post).

* NBA Finals prediction: Mavericks over Bulls in six. Here's to hoping Mark Cuban dedicates the O'Brien Trophy to "all of our high-quality officials working these Finals". Especially if Bennett Salvatore is your lead ref.

* And in case you think I'm deranged, loony, and or delusional because I have the Mavs winning it all (or even more delusionally, have the Knicks within a game of the Finals), remember -- I'm the dude who called Celtics over Cavs in six three f*cking weeks before it happened, at a point in time when even the Sports Guy was picking the Heat to upset the Celtics in round one. Although if you still want to think I'm deranged, loony, and or delusional, that's cool, because I pretty much am.

* Also, I blasted the Conway Twitty "Slow Hand" song last year as well in the above linked post. Some classics never change. Especially when a sixty year old guy is bragging about his "awesome hands". Somewhere, my ex-neighbor Taylor is jealous.

* Sportsline has up a pretty solid article by Matt Moore regarding the Kings' potential relocation. I say "pretty solid", because while Mr. Moore is 100 percent correct that it's beyond despicable what the Maloofs are attempting to do, the bottom line is that the residents of Sacramento and surrounding communities have had a decade to deal with the arena issue. They've had ten freaking years to build a new arena for the Kings, and every time it's been voted down, either by the public or the City Council. So while I feel for Kings fans potentially losing their team, look in the mirror guys. This isn't Seattle, where the resident did pony up millions of dollars to completely overhaul Key Arena, only to see the team still walk out on them. You've had 10 damned years to get something in place. If the Kings wind up bolting for Anaheim, it's nobody's fault but the fans. You want your team? Great. But it comes with a price.

* Having said that, I still don't think the Board of Governors is gonna sign off on this. I find it extremely interesting that in a league where David Stern fines owners and players obscene amounts of money every day for comments made in public, that he has not said one word about Phil Jackson slamming the relocation every day, or on the good doctor, Jerry Buss, publically calling on the League to reject the move.

* "Darlin', don't say a word! I've already heard! What your body's sayin' to mine. If you want all night, you know it's all right -- I got time! You want a man with a slow hand! You want a lover with an easy touch! You want somebody who will spend some time with you baby, not come and go in a heated rush. Baby believe me, I understand (ooh ooh) -- when it comes to love, you want a slow hand!" (steve busting out laughing at the ridiculousness of "Slow Hand" by Conway Twitty ...)