Showing posts with label 2017 nfl picks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2017 nfl picks. Show all posts

Saturday, December 30, 2017

week seventeen: dealing with demons ...

"I'm a rolling thunder, a pouring rain;
I'm coming on like a hurricane!
My lightning's flashing across the sky;
You're only young, but you're gonna die!

Won't take no prisoners!  Won't spare no lives!
Nobody's putting up a fight!
I got my bell; I'm gonna take you to hell!
I'm gonna get you -- Satan!  Get you!

Hell's Bells!
Oh, Hell's Bells!
You got me ringing Hell's Bells!
My temperature's high -- Hell's Bells! ..."

-- "Hell's Bells" by AC/DC.  And no, Max Falkenstein, those aren't the bells of the Campanille that are ringing ...

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Last Week SU: 10-6-0.
Season to Date SU: 146-94-0.

Last Week ATS: 8-7-1.
Season to Date ATS: 132-97-11.

Last Week Upset / Week: you have got to be kitten me.
Season to Date Upset / Week: 6-12-0 SU; 8-8-2 ATS.
This Week's Upset / Week: Eagles (+3) over Cowboys.

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The "These Games Don't Impact the Chiefs" Predictions:

(Note: no "I'd rather watch a three hour marathon of this sh*tty sitcom than this game" designations this week.  Week Seventeen is the saddest week of them all.  Every game is watchable.)

* at Lions (-6 1/2) 31, Packers 21.  Buh bye Corpse Caldwell.
* at Patriots (-15) 41, Jets 3.  No special Jets section this week, but for the record, I'd have done what the Jets did, and kept both GM Mike Maccagnan and head coach Todd Bowles.  
* at Colts (-5) 24, Texans 14.  If Texans owner Bob McNair is stupid enough to side with the worthless Rick Smith (his GM) over Bill O'Brien, he deserves the five straight 3-13 campaigns headed his way.
* at Steelers (-7) 28, Browns 10.  Circle me curious as to what new Browns GM John Dorsey does.  Because in case you forgot, Dorsey didn't hire "Fat" Andy here in KC -- "Fat" Andy came first.  Dorsey has never hired (or fired) a head coach before.  This should be fascinating.  (I'd keep Hue, but then again, I would have hired Hue here five years ago, so what do I know.)
* Redskins (-5) 34, at Giants 3.  Please hire Jim Schwartz, Giants.  If only to see a full fledged riot in the swamps of North Jersey by despondent Giants fans.
* at Vikings 24, Bears (+11) 20.  Welcome to the Windy City, Bob Stoops.
* at Eagles (+3) 34, Cowboys 21.  The single biggest mistake in Jerry Jones' career would be bringing Jason Garrett back for a ninth failed attempt to win the Lombardi.  And I'm fully aware this is the man who gave Dave Campo three years, and thought Quincy Carter was a viable option under center.
* at "Shane" Falcons (-4) 31, Panthers 24.  As sh*tty as the AFC Wild Card round looks ... the NFC Wild Card round looks ... hang on, let me do this right.  The NFC Wild Card round?  (my buddy bunch voice) she's stacked!
* Saints 31, at Bucs (+6) 28.  Seriously, Tampa?  Dirk Koetter?  For Year Three?  If you had any fans, they'd riot before, during, and after this contest.
* at Seahawks (-9) 35, "Super" Cardinals 17.  Stevo Shock Prediction: both coaches in this contest "retire" on Monday morning, Tuesday morning at the latest.
* 49ers (-3 1/2) 35, at Rams 14.  The first of two straight (ravishing rick) rude awakenings for the year-too-soon Rams.

The "This Affects The AFC Playoffs But The Chiefs Can't Face Them" Best Guess:

* at "Super" Chargers (-8) 45, raiders 13.  Even if the "Super" Chargers get in (and I pray to God they don't), they can only reach the playoffs as the six seed.  (Note: the similarities between the 2013 "Super" Chargers and the 2017 "Super" Chargers frighten me -- right down to the fact they'd be favored on the road, as a six seed ... and probably win by double digits to boot.)  I've long believed the single hardest thing to do in football is beat a team three times in one year.  Thank God the Chiefs are locked into the four.

The "These Games Determine The Chiefs Wild Card Opponent" Best Wishes:

* Bills (-2 1/2) 27, at Dolphins 13.  From a Chiefs fan perspective -- and purely as a fan of the Red and Gold perspective -- the Bills are who I want strolling into Arrowhead next weekend.  I firmly believe they are by far and away the easiest of the three possible opponents to beat.  And yes, I am fully aware the Bills have already won at Arrowhead this year.  I don't care.  I just don't see this Bills team as capable of rolling into a truly fired up and filled up Arrowhead and being a viable threat to win.  I just don't.

* at Titans (-3) 31, Jaguars 24.  And from a "this is meant to be fun, and I mean damned fun!" perspective as a football fan, and as a season ticket member who's already been charged ticket and parking for next weekend (thanks Chiefs for the "Merry Christmas" gift on my MasterCard!), the Titans are who I want to face next weekend.  Because if the Titans are the opponent, at least six great friends will hike down from Sioux Falls for this one, as the Titans are Nicole's team, and she'll drag her family with her.  I really want the Titans from a fan's perspective.  (And from a Chiefs perspective -- do you really think Mike Mularkey can draw up a game winning, uuh, game plan, on five days notice?  Because I don't.  Especially considering he hasn't drawn up a winning game plan anywhere in a month.)

* Bengals (+9 1/2) 31, at Ravens 20.  And then there's the team I want no part of.  Do you realize the Ravens have NEVER lost at Arrowhead before?  It's a quirky stat, but it's true.  They won here in 2012 (the "Boo Cassel" Game), they won here in 2006, and they won here in the Wild Card game in 2010.

It seems like every year, some team that controls its' destiny sh*ts the best in an unimaginable manner as favorites.  I think the Ravens are this year's squad.  At least I hope they are.

Stevo's Projected Playoff Field:

AFC:
1. New England Patriots (13-3).
2. Pittsburgh Steelers (13-3).
3. Jacksonville Jaguars (10-6).
4. Kansas City Chiefs (stay tuned).
5. Tennessee Titans (9-7).
6. Buffalo Bills (9-7).

Just Missed: Baltimore Ravens (9-7); Los Angeles "Super" Chargers (9-7).  I believe I have read the tiebreakers right, should the glorious four-way clusterf*ck at 9-7 unfold.  Also, even if both the Chiefs and Jaguars wind up at 10-6, the Jags have clinched the tiebreaker via better conference record.

NFC:
1. Philadelphia Eagles (14-2).
2. Minnesota Vikings (13-3).
3. New Orleans Saints (12-4).
4. Los Angeles Rams (11-5).
5. Carolina Panthers (11-5).
6. Atlanta "Shane" Falcons (10-6).

Just Missed: Seattle Seahawks (10-6).  Atlanta wins tiebreaker via head to head victory last month, in Seattle to boot.

Stevo's Projected Wild Card Schedule:

Saturday, January 6, 3:30pm CT (ESPN / ABC): 6 Buffalo Bills at 3 Jacksonville Jaguars.
Saturday, January 6, 7:00pm CT (NBC): 6 Atlanta "Shane" Falcons at 3 New Orleans Saints.
Sunday, January 7, noon CT (CBS): 5 Tennessee Titans at 4 Kansas City Chiefs.
Sunday, January 7, 3:30pm CT (FOX): 5 Carolina Panthers at 4 Los Angeles Rams.

The only possible different scenario imaginable is that CBS grabs Bills / Jags instead of Titans / Chiefs.  NBC gets first pick, and they'll grab either Seattle or Atlanta at New Orleans.  FOX then gets the Rams by default, and the 3:30 Sunday slot by default (LA can't kick off at 10am local time).  CBS then gets its' pick of two dud matchups.  I think they'll opt for the optics of Arrowhead (and a proven fan base) over two upstarts ... but who knows.

And finally, for what will NOT be the final time this season ...

The Chiefs Prognostication:

* Chiefs (+4) 24, at those people 3.  

I could say a lot (and might later Sunday / Monday), but all I choose to say is this, to fans of the Red and Gold: don't overreact to anything you see on Sunday.

Good, bad, or ugly, it doesn't change reality.  And reality is that those people's season is over come 6pm MT Sunday ... and our season is just beginning.  Their QB situation is arguably the worst in football; ours is arguably in the top five (and about to get better).  Their head coach couldn't outcoach a corpse; ours is about to prove that playing the second string against those people's "finest", will result in a new round of stink for derek wolfe to b*tch about.

And all I can suggest to mr. wolfe, is that he hold his nose.  Because those people?  Are now the "Homer's Bucket Inside the Tailgating Tent" of the AFC West, if not the entire conference.  And will be for the very foreseeable future.

Stench never smelled so fine ... 

Saturday, December 23, 2017

week 16: ready to feel the joy ...

"Joy to the world!
The Lord is come!
Let earth?
Receive her King!

Let every heart,
Prepare Him room!
And heaven and nature sing!
And heaven and nature sing!
And heaven, and heaven,
And nature sing! ..."

-- "Joy To The World".

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Last Week SU: 12-4-0.
Season to Date SU: 136-88-0.

Last Week ATS: 7-6-3.
Season to Date ATS: 124-89-11.

Last Week Upset / Week: the one that mattered hit.
Season to Date Upset / Week: 6-11-0 SU; 8-8-1 ATS.
This Week's Upset / Week: raiders (+9) over Eagles.

The Non-Chiefs, Non-Jets Predictions:

* at Ravens 17, Colts (+13 1/2) 14.  "Gordon Shumway Game O' The Week" honors.
* at Packers (+9) 24, Vikings 14.
* Lions (-4) 38, at Bengals 10.
* at Titans (+7) 27, Rams 24.
* at Bears 2, Browns (+6) 0.  "Good Times Game O' The Week" honors.
* at Panthers (-10) 35, Buccaneers 14.
* at Saints (-7) 31, "Shane" Falcons 13.
* at Redskins (-3 1/2) 23, those people 14.  "Webster Game O' The Week" honors.
* at Patriots 34, Bills (+11) 27.
* Jaguars (-4) 41, at 49ers 13.
* at "Super" Cardinals (-4) 13, Giants 6.  "Empty Nest Game O' The Week" honors.
* at Cowboys (-5) 34, Seahawks 21.
* Steelers (-9) 38, at Texans 13.  "Designing Women Game O' The Week" honors.
* raiders (+9) 34, at Eagles 21.

The "Klassy" Kevin Keitzman Tweet O' The Week:

In the spirit of the season, I'll give him a pass.

The Watching Party Plans:

There are no The Watching Party Plans, as this is a Chiefs game I will be in attendance for.

The Tailgating Plans:

As of now, we are keeping things simple: burgers and dogs, assorted side dishes, and as many warm beverages as possible.  I have to admit, I am not ready for the cold, and I am not ready for snow.  The first arrives tonight here in KC; the second arrives Sunday morning. 

We will have the tents set up, and heaters going, ASAFP on Sunday morning.  Because nobody, and I mean NOBODY, hates the cold more than me.  I've said it before, and I'll say it again: I'm ready to move somewhere, where the idea of putting a shirt ON when getting out of bed in the morning, seems like the most ridiculous idea of all time.

If you need a place to tailgate, a bite to eat, a beer to drink, or just a place to duck in and warm up for a few minutes, as always, anyone who wishes to join in the fun, tomfoolery, and hijinks, is welcome to join us.

"Disreputable Mexican Food Truck" Update:

I got nothing.

The Jets Best Guess:

I don't got much.

* "Super" Chargers (-7) 31, at Jets 20.

The Chiefs Prognostication:

As for my pick ... here's the dilemma.

The Chiefs have been favored by at least ten points at two different times this year.  And they lost both games outright, to the Giants and the Jets.  

The Chiefs opened as a ten point favorite (it's down to eight at last check) this week.  So that worries me.  

Dolphins quarterback Jay Cutler has lost exactly once to the Chiefs in his career.  He went 3-1 for those people, and was 1-0 with the Bears.  That concerns me.

Adam Gase, the Dolphins head coach, has had tremendous success against the Chiefs -- he's 7-0 in his career as the offensive coordinator for those people and the Bears against us.  That terrifies me.

And there's history -- the Chiefs have never won back to back division titles before.  They've won three in five years ... but never back to back.

(That one really terrifies me, because every other team in the division entering the 2000 season has won at least three in a row of their current division, since the 2000 season began.  Yes, even the raiders.)

Throw in a flu bug apparently going around One Arrowhead Drive, and the makings are there for a terrifying upset that derails everything Week Seventeen should be about.  (Namely, tears streaming down my face due to either (a) Patrick Mahomes "Of The Chiefs" making his debut, or (b) a fan or three of those people beating the f*ck out of me.  Oh fake mile high, never stop being you!)

But I honestly think the forecast (snow Saturday night / Sunday morning, barely freezing by kickoff), coupled with a boozed-up, hopefully fired-up crowd ducking (as I am) as many family get-togethers as possible, will deliver the win against a team used to playing in a sauna at kickoff.

To say nothing of the fact that a Chiefs win officially eliminates the raiders from playoff consideration.  I trust "Fat" Andy will stress that in the pregame speech.  Because when you have a chance to bury your hated rival?  Don't f*ck up the opportunity.

* at Chiefs (-8) 48, Dolphins 13.  If you're coming out?  Do your job.  It's colder outside right now here in KC (I am typing this on Friday night -- it's currently 31 degrees and cloudy with little to no wind), than it will be at kickoff on Sunday (supposed to be mid 30s, sunny, with little to no wind).  Show up, stand, and witness something no Chiefs fan ever has before -- a second straight division title.

And then get ready for a day we've waited for, for literally a generation, next Sunday: a Chiefs drafted quarterback winning a start for this franchise.  It will be merely the first of many, many wins, for Patrick Mahomes ...

Thursday, December 14, 2017

week 15: (real world voice) stuff starts getting real ...

“Silent night.  Holy night.
All is calm.  All is bright.
Round yon virgin, mother and Child.
Holy Infant, so tender and mild.
Sleep in heavenly peace.
Sleep in heavenly peace …”


--------------------

Last Week SU: 10-6-0.
Season to Date SU: 124-84-0.

Last Week ATS: 12-4-0.
Season to Date ATS: 117-83-8.

Last Week Upset / Week: finally.
Season to Date Upset / Week: 5-10-0 SU; 7-7-1 ATS.
This Week’s Upset / Week: It’s a Two for Thursday!  Browns (+7) over Ravens, and yeah, we’re going there, in about seven pages.  (damien voice) Wait, he wouldn’t honestly take the Jets to win in N’Awlins, would he?  (pause.)  Oh sh*t!  Oh sh*t!  He believes!  He believes!  We’re gonna win!  We’re gonna win!  (stevo voice) Dude!  Shut up already!  Don’t give away the ending before I even get done with the beginning!

The Non-Jets, Non-Chiefs Predictions:

* those people (-2 ½) 17, at Colts 13.  “Empty Nest Game O’ The Week” honors.
* at Lions (-5 ½) 34, Bears 16.  The Lions are going to steal the six seed when it’s all said and done.
* Eagles 24, at Giants (+7 ½) 20.  Another year, a different NFC East champ.
* at Panthers 27, Packers (+6) 24.  For the record, I’d start Hundley.
* Dolphins (NL) 24, at Bills 14.  A de-facto playoff game.  Who saw this one coming?
* “Super” Cardinals (+4 ½) 17, at Redskins 13.  “Good Times Game O’ The Week” honors.
* at Vikings (-10 ½) 34, Bengals 14.  “Webster Game O’ The Week” honors.
* at Jaguars (-11 ½) 30, Texans 13.  “ALF Game O’ The Week” honors.
* at Browns (+7) 20, Ravens 10.  The AFC Clusterf*ck for the two wild cards is going to be glorious.
* Rams (+2 ½) 31, at Seahawks 20.  Winner probably takes the NFC West; the loser is in big trouble.
* Patriots (-3) 34, at Steelers 27.  Can’t wait to watch this one, although I’ll have the next game on the Sunday Ticket main TV, since it matters to the Chiefs more.
* at 49ers (-2) 17, Titans 13.  Again, the AFC Clusterf*ck at 9-7 (if not 8-8! * ) for the two wild cards is going to be real, and spectacular.
* at raiders (+3) 34, Cowboys 24.  They’re not dead yet folks.  Especially if they win out.  
* “Shane” Falcons (-6) 31, at Bucs 24.  The “Shane” Falcons better win this one -- if they do, they control their destiny (last two being vs Saints / vs Panthers).

(*: the best ever had to be 1999, when not one, but two NFC Wild Card teams got in at 8-8 (Lions, Cowboys), while Carolina and Green Bay had to score as many points as possible, as yes, the (then fourth, now) seventh tiebreaker -- net point differential in conference games -- would have been in play, had the Cowboys lost.  In case you’ve forgotten why you so f*cking love this sport, PLEASE CLICK ON THIS CLIP, sit back, and enjoy the hell out of football at its’ best!  Also, God bless it, I miss “NFL PrimeTime”.)

The “Klassy” Kevin Keitzman Tweet O’ The Week:


I ask this with all due sincerity -- which god awful Nelly song ** do you think Ol’ Klassy relates to more: “EI” or “Hot In Herre”?  Do you think he prefers … hell, let’s make this the Stevo’s Site Numero Dos’ Poll Question O’ The Week!

Which lyrical line from a Nelly hit does “Klassy” Kev’ relate to better:

a. “If the head right?  Nelly there, e’ry night!” -- “EI”
b. “It’s getting hot in here, so take off all your clothes!” -- “Hot in Herre”

I lean (a) … allegedly, of course.  Because this is all an alleged exercise in attempted humor at Ol’ Keitz’ expense.  Allegedly.

(**: “EI” is not a crappy song.  It is a spectacular song that will always be on Mixology for as long as I’m running it.  (Pause).  Which won’t be Saturday (hopefully).  As always, keep reading.)

The Watching Party Plans:

There are no The Watching Party Plans, although we will have the Sunday Ticket going on, uuh, Sunday, at the Second Parents place.  God bless DirecTV, giving away the Sunday Ticket for free for the last four weeks.  Because even I balked at paying over $300 / year for what, six Sundays of television viewing.  Thanks for remembering those of us who cancelled due to attending 10-12 games a year, guys.  You’re still the best!  (And for once, that isn’t sarcasm; I love having DirecTV back in my life for the first time in a few years.)

The Tailgating Plans:

If it’s the Chargers, we’re doing Chargers Chicken.  Which -- stunner! -- is what we’re doing.  We’ll have plenty of varieties of chicken available, along with various side items, desserts, and adult beverages.

Also -- and the plan was for this to start last week, but due to technical difficulties it didn’t -- I am ceding the Mixology portion of tailgating to a trained professional, in this case, my buddy Tyler, who DJ’s on the side on the weekend.  Hopefully this goes as planned, because honestly, (almost) 41 year old dudes should not be programming the musical rotation.  I’m too old to know quality modern stuff (save for the Chainsmokers; I like them!)

In any event, The Bus departs around 1pm; if you need a ride out, hop on board.  If you need a place to tailgate, you’re always welcome to join us.  And if you just feel like getting your buzz on before the biggest regular season game the Chiefs have played in three years … well, you can do worse than counting on a collection of functional alcoholics, to meet your buzz needs.

“Disreputable Mexican Food Truck” Update:

Again, nothing to report.  It’s WEEK FOUR of the freaking water main fix on North Broadway.  I mean, good God KCMO Works Department -- how long does it take to replace a damned pipe when it’s been above freezing for all but about 24 hours in those four weeks?

The Jets Best Guess:

If Christian Hackenberg does not start at least one of these last three games, Todd Bowles should be fired.

Which, in Mr. Bowles’ defense, he probably will be anyways, but still.  Josh McCown is out.  Bryce Petty’s arm is worse than mine on my best day.  It’s time to see what Ol’ Christian has in him.  

Or more realistically, doesn’t.

* at Saints (-16) 41, Jets 13.

The Chiefs Prognostication:

(Very, very, very deep breath …)

(Clearing the throat …)

You know what?  Before I start saying what I want to say, there’s only one proper way to open this:



OK, let’s begin.

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For the record, I believe that if this 2017 Chiefs season is what it has played out as, there is only one possible outcome on Saturday night, and that is a tie.

Think about it.  How PERFECT would, say, a 23-23 tie be?

It would resolve nothing.  It would cause a new round of panic amongst most of the fanbase.  It would probably occur because of a brain-fart clock decision, or play call decision, or inexcusable penalty that yet again costs this team a very winnable game.

And yet it would still somehow, someway, leave the Chiefs in complete and total control of their own fate, irregardless of what anyone else does.  It would still leave the Chiefs exactly where a win would put them: with a magic number of one, to win the West.  Sh*t, if anything, it might actually put the three seed back into play, depending on what the Jags and Titans do down the stretch (the Jags have vs Texans / at 49ers / at Titans; the Titans have at 49ers / vs Rams / vs Jaguars), as a tie only counts as half a defeat, and a 9-6-1 Chiefs squad would be seeded higher than a 9-7 AFC South champion.  (Note: this won’t matter; the Jags aren’t losing to Houston, which would be win ten.  But it is interesting to contemplate.)

This game just seems destined to end in a tie.  

But, since I try (and for once this season, I mostly succeed!) to pick the winner of each game, I have to pick an outcome here where one team outscores the other.

And that team?

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If you’re coming Saturday, be loud.  Be DAMNED loud!  Be so f*cking loud the late, great RCW will be screaming down from Heaven above to “shut up already”!  Pound that seat in front of you!  Stand on every critical third down, and let the Chiefense know you got ‘em!  Don’t boo the expected -- if Sir Alex misses an obvious read and checks down four minutes into the game, it’s OK.  Believe he’ll make up for it in the third quarter.

If there is anything this season has shown us, it is that the Chiefs will have the ball, in the fourth quarter, probably inside of three minutes, in a one score game either way.  It’s happened damned near every week.  The only two games it hasn’t happened were two blowout Chiefs victories -- the Eagles Week Two, the raiders last week.

Trust the coaching staff.  These guys are pretty good, folks.  “Fat” Andy hasn’t won 170 plus games by sheer luck; at some point, skill is involved.  (Note: I make this argument to somehow attempt to explain how I manage to hold down a job for significant chunks of time, and have never been fired from a job before (I have been laid off a couple times).  At some point, it isn’t dumb luck.  At some point, you have to acknowledge I just might know my sh*t when it comes to reinsurance.)

Remember 1995 when you begin to doubt.  The Chargers had first and goal at the Chiefs 4, two minute warning, up four.  The Chiefs won in overtime on my single favorite play of all time, Tamarick Vanover’s punt return to trigger what is without question the single loudest moment in Arrowhead’s history.  Remember 2006.  Lawrence Tynes nails it from 48 to upset the 6-0 Chargers … only to have a bullsh*t motion penalty called.  The retry from 53?  Even more golden than the attempt from 48.  Remember 2010.  “Tuesday Morning Football”.  Remember 2011.  “The Phumble”.

Remember 2015.  Dee Ford somehow, someway knocking that 4th and goal pass down to clinch (arguably) the most miraculous playoff berth in franchise history.

Or just remember last year against these guys, the greatest comeback in franchise history.

But most importantly -- trust yourselves.  Trust us, the fans.  Trust us to make the difference.  And then do your part to make the, uuh, difference.

(Or to put it more directly, do NOT be silent, on Saturday night.)

The team I pick to win?

(stevo sighing in disgust voice) Take a mother f*cking guess.

* at Chiefs (+1 ½) 29, Chargers 23 (OT).

Also, apologies again on the ridiculous formatting. I got it to work if you are reading this via a web browser on a computer screen. I know it's still effed up on a mobile device. I'm trying to fix it. For 894 previous posts, not one issue. Now, it's effed up. I swear, it's always something ...

Thursday, December 7, 2017

week fourteen: the chiefs prognostication ...

“O come, all ye faithful,
Joyful and triumphant.
O come ye, O come ye,
To Bethlehem.

Come and behold Him,
Born the King of Angels.
O come, let us adore Him.
O come, let us adore Him.

O come, let us adore Him --
Christ the Lord.

Sing, choirs of angels!
Sing in exultation!
Sing all ye citizens
Of Heaven above!

Glory to God!
All glory in the highest!

O come, let us adore Him!
O come, let us adore Him!
O come, let us adore Him --
Christ the Lord! …”

-- “O Come All Ye Faithful”. God bless, the Indy 500 will NEVER be the same with Flo and Jim ...

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The Chiefs Prognostication:

I wake up every morning, hearing the most annoying “alarm clock” known to at least me: a yapping Yorkie * that lives next door to me.

I HATE that dog.  He robbed me of approximately 1,100,394 hours of sleep during my six month “career sabbatical” earlier this year.

I HATE that dog.  His poops -- and I swear, this is true -- his poops literally stink up my bedroom, when the windows are open, as they (so thankfully) have been for most of the last three months.

If the bark doesn’t get you?  The stink will.  Because despite Karen’s best efforts, her dog always sh*ts right underneath the window next to my bed.  (I have my theories on why, namely “this is God having a bit of fun at my expense”.  But still, it’s annoying as hell.)

I open with this, to note the following:

Is there a more perfect metaphor, than that, for what the Chiefs have become in this season that now stands on the ledge?

The bark of the media -- and the stink of six losses, four in a row -- infuriates you.

Which begs the question -- because there are four things dogs are incredibly gifted at doing -- barking, stinking, screwing and biting.

We’ve endured the barking, suffered the screwing, and are recoiling at the stinking.

Is Sunday going to be when the 2017 Chiefs bite back … or get bit?

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(*: my parents dog (a Yorkie) is the same way.  Bruno barks constantly, and only poops / pees in one spot: on the corner of their front porch.  Which is concrete. To say my mom is not a fan of that, is a grouse, criminite understatement.  I believe I even heard her drop the s-bomb when he did his business there the day after Thanksgiving.  (Pause).  I KNEW I got it from somewhere!  Other than Uncle Bill, of course …)

--------------------

For as awful as things stink at the moment, this season is not over.  

It’s in deep trouble … but it is not over.  

Everything that was within reach eight weeks ago, is for the most part still there.  The Chiefs still control their own destiny.  If they sweep the homestand, they win the AFC West.  If they beat oakland and LA, and beat those people (while losing to Miami), they win the AFC West.  Sh*t folks, there’s even a very plausible scenario in play where the Chiefs clinch the AFC West NEXT WEEK ** !

--------------------  

(**: the scenario: the Chiefs go 2-0, the Redskins beat the Chargers on Sunday, and the Cowboys beat the raiders next Sunday night.  In that scenario, at 8-6 and two games clear of both rivals, the Chiefs would clinch due to holding every tiebreaker.  Like I said, it’s plausible.  And if you think I sound delusional, I remind you The Immaculate Fourfecta happened.  

Also, I pray it happens, so that Peter King can b*tch non-stop for three week about how an 8-8 division winner is hosting an 11-5 wild card team.  First trumps second (or third) Pete.  First trumps second (or third).)

--------------------

But first things first.  

If the Chiefs lose to the raiders, it almost doesn’t matter what else happens, because they would hold tiebreaker over the Chiefs (and would essentially move two ahead with three to play).  Now, frankly, the raiders closing schedule is just brutal: at KC / vs Dal (SNF) / at Philly (Christmas Night) / at LA (who already won in oakland).  It’s far, far more likely the raiders lose out, than win out.

(For what it’s worth, the “Super” Chargers close vs Wash / at KC (Sat Night) / at Jets / vs oak.)

The Chiefs MUST win this game, if they intend to save the season.  

And yes, Pete Stoyanovich, twenty years later, we’ve finally found a Chiefs season that needs salvation.

And frankly, there’s only two ways the Chiefs can win this game -- let alone the next two to clinch a second straight division title -- and they both have to click on all cylinders.  

Let’s look at the first … which was implemented yesterday afternoon.

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I’ve been saying for three weeks that what this team truly needs is a swift kick up the ass.  They need something to happen to get them “woke up”, to use a phrase I despise with a passion *** .  Yesterday, I believe “Fat” Andy did that, by suspending Marcus Peters for one game -- this game -- for his funny-as-hell-yet-dumb-f*ck-stupid meltdown late in the Jets game.

I argued the moment Mr. Peters left the field that if I was his head coach, I’d suspend his ass for the rest of the regular season.  Because like “Fat” Andy, I saw the golden opportunity for that swift kick up the poop shoot to occur, after Sunday.  Everyone knows Marcus Peters is the only corner we’ve got that can cover worth a sh*t.  If you sit him?  It sends one of two messages to the locker room.  Either (a) we’re screwed anyway, so let’s sit our best player on defense and tank … or (b) as President Truman used to note: “the (buck) **** stops here”.  

This was a needed development, even if everyone can (or should) see it for what it is: a last desperate roll of the dice by “Fat” Andy to save a season gone horribly, horribly wrong.

Or, as Jack Dawson noted twenty years ago aboard the “Titanic”: “when you got nothing?  You got nothing to lose.”  The Chiefs currently have nothing -- they’ve lost 6 of 7, the only victory is against arguably the worst team in the NFL (seriously -- would you pick those people or the Browns to win on a neutral field?), and in five of the six losses, “Sir” Alex and the offense had the ball in their hands, either needing a first down to clinch or a score to win, and failed.  

Epically failed.

I think “Fat” Andy handled this perfectly.  I love that he met with the team leaders AFTER the decision was made.  He didn’t accept their input.  He didn’t care what they thought.  It was his decision, and you’re gonna choke it down, like it or not.  And if you don’t like it?  You can join Mr. Peters on his couch on Sunday.

It’s a gamble, to be sure.  Sitting the one reliable defender you have with your season on the line is one hell of a desperate last gasp roll of the dice.  Either this is gonna work, and the slide stops … or we’re going down 34-3 to a chorus of boos the likes of which Arrowhead hasn’t heard since The Blackout in 2012.

Which brings me to the second thing that has to occur, to save a rapidly lost season …

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(***: I am so sick and tired of these alleged left-leaning Democrats getting “woke up”.  Hey, dumba**?  Maybe if you’d “woke up” on November 8th, we’d have won!  Maybe if you’d put down the bong long enough to get to a polling station in Madison, you UW students protesting non-stop, you wouldn’t be protesting!  I HATE sore losers more than anything other than hypocrites.  I’d argue most liberals are beyond both.)

(****: anyone who studies Mr. Truman knows he meant “bullsh*t” instead of buck.  Or pardon me -- “fertilizer”, as Bess kept trying to get him to call it.)

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And that is us.

The fanbase.

The people whose asses will be occupying seats inside of Arrowhead on Sunday.

I’m not going to waste your time typing some rah-rah, “stand up and shout” speech.  For starters, I already wrote the perfect on fifteen years ago, when another season threatened to spiral out of control after a promising start, when another coaching era threatened to be judged a failure before it had any right to truly be judged.

If you truly need motivation to show up and cheer the Red and Gold on (jimmy buffett voice) come Sunday, then just print off The Week Four Plea, sub in current opponent and players, and show up ready to throw down for as long as it takes to drag this team across the victory line.  Because The Week Four Plea worked -- the Chiefs not only demolished an unbeaten (at the time) Dolphins squad, this was the game best remembered for Trent Green absolutely knocking into the middle of 2004 a Dolphins defender whose name will be familiar to Chiefs fans: Patrick Surtain.  Mr. Green absolutely obliterated Mr. Surtain while throwing down a block for Priest to score yet another touchdown.  (The Chiefs dropped 48 on Miami that day.  Incredibly, it not only was NOT their best offensive day of the season scoring wise … it was their third best.)

Show up prepared to win.  Not lose -- win.  Show up prepared to cheer.  Not boo -- cheer.  Show up prepared to make noise.  Not sit on your ass in silence -- make noise.

If you need a place to tailgate?  You’re always welcome to join us.  We will be in our usual spot -- the grassy knoll to the north of the G30 sign.  We’re sending six people down to keep the idiot who has tried to occupy our spot the last two weeks, out.  (Sending two was barely enough the last two weeks -- we aren’t f*cking around anymore.)  The Chiefs allow you to park anywhere inside Lot G if you have a red reserve pass.  Easily purchasable at the Chiefs website.

You can park across from us, next to us, or out in Lot L for all we care; you're always welcome to join in.  

It’s going to be in the mid 50s and bright and sunny at kickoff, per every local television station, with the high peaking at 61 to 63 (depending on who you trust -- I still trust a man who once referred to some of us as “the sorriest group of trick or treaters I’ve ever seen”, Mike Thompson, the most).  The winds should be minimal.  Simply put, God has given us the PERFECT December weather day for Kansas City, for the day the 2017 season will be defined, for better or worse.  (Part I of course; if we survive Part I, then Saturday is Part II.)

Sunday is the season folks.  

Please -- only send the faithful, into that stadium.  Only send the believers.

Send you.

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And now, having wasted your last five minutes, I suppose I owe you a prediction.  

And my prediction is this.

This game will not be close.  I truly, honestly believe that.  One team is going to destroy the other.  This will not be a replay of Week Seven, which the raiders won via an untimed down.  Either “Fat” Andy’s last gasp roll of the dice comes up seven or eleven … or the Chiefs suffer loss number seven, and the season’s clock strikes 11:59.

And to be honest, this one is solely and only based on the heart.  Because the head says that the Peters suspension backfires, that derek carr gets his first win at Arrowhead while looking like Warren Moon throwing against Stan Petry, Jeff Donaldson, and Chuck Mincy twenty seven Decembers ago, and this season has the life support pulled from it, and is officially buried next Saturday night.

But the heart … well, allow me to close this down by typing the lyrics of what would have been the theme post, if it wasn’t Chrismukkah season.

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“You feel like a candle,
In a hurricane.
Just like a picture,
With a broken frame.

Alone and helpless,
Like you’ve lost your fight?
But you’ll be alright --
You’ll be alright!

‘Cause when push comes to shove?
You taste what you’re made of!
You might bend ‘til you break?
Cause it’s all you can take.

On your knees?
You look up,
And decide you’ve?
Had enough.

You get mad;
You get strong.
Wipe your hand,
Shake it off.

Then?
You stand! …”


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I’ve had enough.

I trust you have too.

And I -- for better or worse -- believe that each and every member of this organization, especially the Fine Fifty Three wearing a uniform on Sunday, have looked in the mirror, and have gotten mad.  They’ve gotten strong.

And they’re ready to f*cking stand.

Which I -- and hopefully all of you -- will be doing a LOT of on Sunday.

Get LOUD!

Get PROUD!

And then, as Blake Shelton would encourage you to do?  


As the late, great Herb Brooks said nearly forty years ago: “if you lose this game?  You will take it to your f*cking grave!  (Pause).  Your f*cking grave!”

Sunday?

Please come if you’re faithful … ready to witness the last stand.

And so, my prediction?

(stevo sighing in disgust voice) Take a mother f*cking guess.

* at Chiefs (-4) 38, raiders 13.

Hope to see you Sunday!

week twelve picks

The Statisticals. Last Week SU: 8-6-0. Season to Date SU: 98-62-1. Last Week ATS: 7-7-0. Season to Date ATS: 75-80-6. Last Week Upset / ...