"You don't have to go now honey;
Call and tell 'em you won't be in today.
Baby, there ain't nothing at the office?
So important it can't wait!
I'm thankful for the weekend,
But two days in heaven just ain't gonna do.
This is gonna take forever, darlin --
Girl, I just got started loving you!"
-- "Just Got Started Loving You" by James Otto.
--------------------
The one thing that stood out over this season -- especially this postseason -- above all, was the Chiefs remarkable ability to rally from remarkable deficits.
In all three playoff games, over the span of those four magical weekends none of us would trade for damned near anything, the opposition scored first. In all three playoff games, over those four epic weekends, the Chiefs trailed by double digits at some points. And in all three playoff games, over those four nearly indescribable weekends, the Chiefs won by double digits.
A smart person would argue that you don't accomplish comebacks like we witnessed in a vacuum. Hell, even dumb f*ck morons like me would argue that. And for once, the smart and sane, as well as the intellectually questionable and clinically mentally challenged like me, agree!
Because one thing that hit me while working on the next two posts after this ... is that, in the words of Stevo's Site Numero Dos' Official Color Commentator (Emeritus), the legendary Dan Dierdorf: "we have seen it before".
Sh*t, we saw it inside Arrowhead, fourteen years ago.
Against "Fat" Andy Reid to boot.
--------------------
A few months ago, I noted what a difference a coach can make. I pointed out just how dramatically (and unbelievably quickly) "Fat" Andy turned the Chiefs from the doormat of the division, the outhouse of the conference, and the "whatever the hell passes as sanitation" in "Survivor" * of the league.
What truly is dramatic and unbelievable, is that I of all people didn't see it coming. Yes, I am the one who loves to point out (via a no-doubt stolen quote) that "there are lies, damned lies, and statistics" ... and yet, my professional life involves nothing but those lies, damned lies, and statistics. I work as a reinsurance accountant for a fairly decently known local KC insurance company. Prior to that, I did the same job for two universally known insurance companies for pushing twenty years.
(Think "instantly recognizable building in the heart of San Francisco", and "largest city of the most neutral company on Planet Earth", for those corporations, both of whom paid me thousands of dollars to (old school doormat voice) go away ** . In the words of Sammy Sosa: "God bless America, it's a beautiful country!")
I am paid to not only report the actuals of life ... but to project and manage the risks in life. I am paid to literally study the past, and track the present, to predict the future.
(Somehow, "company I work for" is afloat. Circle me stunned, Bert. Circle me stunned *** .)
And yet somehow, despite the research on that linked post above that opened this section of these poorly prepared thoughts (which involved a few hours playing around on one of my favorite sites, pro-football-reference.com), despite the statement of the present, and analysis of the past, I failed to do one thing to truly predict the future to come.
I stopped at seven years prior, to "Fat" Andy's arrival.
Because in the accounting world, seven years makes sense. It's what the IRS "politely" asks you to hold onto records for. It's the time span most financial audits cover, if things are ugly. And certainly, in professional sports, if not in life, if you haven't made verifiable progress in seven years? If you haven't cleaned up the f*ck ups and failures of your franchise seven years later? You're probably living the lyrics to the "Good Times" theme song.
My mistake was not going back seven years to research that post.
My mistake was not going back eight.
--------------------
(*: I hate that it's a season of all past winners ... but my God, is this year's "Survivor" phenomenal. Also, I so would have pulled a Sandra too, arriving at Eviction Island. (The worst twist in this show ever, but whatever. Double also, Adam is still me, if I ever played this game. Thinks he's smarter than the average bear, gets outplayed and outthought at every step, yet somehow charms enough people into keeping him around, because he's that damned likable, all while people scream "for Christ's sake, put a shirt on already!" Although he doesn't have the shaky right hand on Day Seventeen from severe alcohol withdrawal, that I would. Because as tempting as trading a fire token for Bud Light would be ... (stevo voice) it's Bud Light! I'd rather shock myself into sobriety.)
(**: I had to emergency dogsit for my brother for a night right before KC went on lockdown due to this sh*ttacular virus. My brother lives about a mile from where I used to fifteen years ago. I drove by the old house on the way home, just to see what it looks like nowadays ... and had to laugh. Because while it looks different (yet recognizable) on the outside? There, on a Saturday morning, was a large black dog lying on the front porch. I'm guessing the Jehovah's Witnesses still come around about 10am every Saturday? Because God love his lazy ass, there were only three things in life that ever motivated the late, great Priest to bark, let alone stand up. His addiction to Meaty Bones, his fear of a vacuum cleaner ... and the traveling pair of Jehovah's Witnesses every Saturday. (Pause). Damn right we left him on the front porch every weekend for a reason.)
(***: this is an abject lie. I may suck at 80% of what I do, and God knows my personal life has been a Thomas the Train level wreck of epic proportions at times ... but I can literally write my ticket to any reinsurer who wants me, I'm that fairly well known in this industry. As my buddy Pickell would note: "put it this way": I haven't submitted an application for a job since the late 1990s ... and yet, haven't been unemployed for a day I pretty much didn't choose to be, since November 1999. The lesson? Hell if I know. I'm just good at my job, I guess.)
--------------------
Week Four 2005 was, in hindsight, one of the great, epic Chiefs regular season games I've ever been privileged to attend.
For starters, you couldn't have asked for a better day to tailgate. The Pro-Football-Reference boxscore notes it was 87 and sunny at kickoff. In early October. In Kansas City. I mean, how do you top that? (Other than by going up maybe another six to eight degrees?)
Plus it was a 3:15pm CT start. Meaning we got to enjoy the entire glorious day outdoors. And the eyes of the nation were on our lovely lil' stadium, via the national FOX broadcast.
Again, what more can you ask for to open October?
Also, the game itself appeared to be epic -- your defending NFC Champion Philadelphia Eagles, visiting our beloved Red and Gold. (And in case you think the 2005 Chiefs, just because they missed the playoffs, were not a force to be reckoned with? Just check this article out.)
If you, like me, at least in part have your season ticket because of who we play, then man, was this the game for you!
Donovan McNabb! Brian Westbrook! Terrell Owens! Freddie "4th and 26" Mitchell! Brian Dawkins! Jevon "The Freak" Kearse! And my personal favorite, Lito "Oh Oh Oh Oh Oh Oh!" Shepherd!
And for the Red and Gold, Trent Green! Priest Holmes! Larry Johnson! Dante Hall! Tony Gonzalez! Jared Allen! Derrick Johnson (in his rookie year)!
And the geek in me really, really dug the coaching matchup: Richard A. Vermeil ... against "Fat" Andy Reid.
--------------------
After one of the last great tailgates at the crosswalk in Lot N, the actual game got underway ... and for twenty minutes, it did not disappoint anyone there rooting for the Chiefs.
The Chiefs received the kickoff, and in barely five minutes, Priest punched it into the end zone to start the scoring. (And note: there would be a LOT of scoring on this day. More than most of you reading this are getting right now thanks to this lockdown, that much scoring.) After forcing an Eagles punt, the Chiefs drive again, and nail a field goal to go up 10-0. The Eagles then fumble the kickoff; the Chiefs recover, and a Larry Johnson touchdown to open the second quarter puts the Chiefs up 17-0 with nearly three full quarters to play.
(Sound familiar, Texans fans? Chiefs fans?)
Then temporarily, the game settled down, for a solid four, five minutes, as both teams exchanged punts.
After the Chiefs punt, the Eagles manage to finally put a sustained drive together, enough to try a field goal ... which is promptly blocked by Eric Hicks!
So here the Chiefs stand, at about their own 30, up 17, a little over seven minutes to play in the half, ready to plunge the final dagger into the Eagles corpse.
Only ...
--------------------
That drive ended with a TrINT Green, uuh, TaINT, as the Eagles returned a forty yard pick to the house. (And somehow, they shanked the extra point.) Now it's 17-6 Chiefs ... for about ten seconds, because Dante Hall takes the kick return to the house to extend the lead from 17 to 18, at 24-6. In literally fifteen seconds, the Chiefs somehow turn the most deflating play in football (a defensive touchdown) into the most exciting play in football (a kickoff / punt return touchdown), and emerge a point ahead of where they were as a result! Surely, at 24-6, with barely four minutes until halftime, surely this game has to be solidly in the hand at this point, right? Who the hell rallies from down eighteen points with half the game gone inside of the nuthouse that is Arrowhead Stadium -- a nuthouse so, uuh, nutty, most of my friends and family (and the friends that are family) refer to it as it should be named -- Terrorhead Stadium? Who the hell coaches a team back from down four scores right before the half, inside of Terrorhead?
I can think of one dude, who knows how to do that ...
--------------------
Because just like he did so many times in the 2019 postseason ... ok, every time in the 2019 postseason, "Fat" Andy Reid didn't panic. Didn't let his frustrations get the better of him.
Which probably is why I love the dude so much. Coaching the 2005 Eagles had to be the most miserable job experience of Coach Reid's career. Terrell Owens imploded the season after this game, as the Eagles fell from 3-1 exiting Arrowhead, to 6-10 when the season was done. But hey, anytime you can do shirtless push-ups on your driveway to make a point, I guess you have to do it, right Terrell?
And yet, in this one game, in this one moment, "Fat" Andy showed why he's so brilliant.
Because not even twenty minutes of game action later, the Eagles had rallied from down 18, to tie the game at 24. And they weren't done scoring. Because the Eagles scored 31 straight -- thirty one straight! -- points, to beat the Chiefs 37-31 that afternoon. (The Chiefs scored a garbage time TD to make the score respectable.)
And as if scoring 31 straight at Arrowhead as an opponent -- while trailing by 18 -- wasn't impressive enough? If anything, "Fat" Andy showed that day just what a lead consumer he is. From the moment that Dante Hall returned the kickoff to put the Chiefs up 24-6, until the Eagles scored to go up 37-24 barely thirty minutes later, the Eagles ran 49 plays over eight drives. (Three drives of which began via Chiefs turnovers. Oy vey.)
Of the 49 plays the Eagles ran (50 if you count the two point conversion, which I don't), only 10 of them were runs, for a grand total of 21 yards. 39 of them were passes, for 297 yards, 3 touchdowns, 6 scoring drives, and a comeback by the enemy the likes of which Arrowhead had rarely if ever witnessed before.
To say the 77,000 plus of me and my closest friends left that stadium in stunned disbelief, is an insult to stunned disbelief.
"Fat" Andy literally did anything he wanted to in that second half. Donovan McNabb threw three touchdowns -- all in goal to go situations. It's not like the Chiefs secondary was abysmal -- it started Dexter McCleon, Greg Wesley, Patrick Surtain, "Brave" Bennie Sapp, and Sammy Knight. You can win with that secondary. The Chiefs did -- ten times in sixteen tries in 2005.
But this failure? A failure that ultimately cost the 2005 Chiefs the postseason **** ?
I'm hard pressed to pin this epic disaster anymore on Richard A. Vermeil, on TrINT Green's god-awful performance (19-30, two costly interceptions (one of which was the margin of victory)), or on (as I noted fifteen years ago) a once-in-a-lifetime rally we'd never witness again.
"A once in a lifetime rally we'll never witness again."
As usual, I was wr ... wr ... wr ... possibly incorrect.
And I've never been happier, to be so.
Even if it took me fifteen years, to understand why.
--------------------
(****: either this debacle, or the collapse in Dallas two months later, cost the 2005 Chiefs a playoff berth. In both games, the Chiefs led by at least ten points, and choked. Having been at both games, I think Philly was the worse loss ... but it's not like the Cowboys defeat is exactly defensible.)
--------------------
Because fifteen years later, on the same field, in virtually the same position, "Fat" Andy orchestrated another rally you might witness once in a lifetime, if you're lucky -- coming back from down 24 to the Texans to take the lead -- this time in half the time it took "Fat" Andy and his Eagles to rally fifteen years ago. In barely ten minutes, the Chiefs went from being on the receiving end of one of the greatest upsets in NFL playoff history, to being on the giving end of one of the greatest comebacks in NFL history, period.
We Chiefs fans should have seen "The Comeback" against the Texans coming. I should have seen it coming. And maybe I would have, if I'd gone eight years of research back, instead of seven.
The lesson? Sh*t if I know, other than I'm damned glad "Fat" Andy Reid is my team's head coach ...
Showing posts with label fat andy reid. Show all posts
Showing posts with label fat andy reid. Show all posts
Friday, April 10, 2020
Thursday, January 9, 2020
three days out
"My eyes are open wide;
And by the way?
I made it through the day.
I watched the world outside;
And by the way?
I'm leaving out today.
I just saw Haley's comet;
She waved, and said
Why're you always running in place?
Even the man in the moon
Disappeared?
Somewhere in the stratosphere!
Tell my mother!
Tell my father!
That I've done the best I can
To make them realize --
This is my life!
I hope they understand!
I'm not angry.
I'm just saying?
Sometimes goodbye is a second chance ...
-- "Second Chance" by Shinedown.
--------------------
Not many status updates to report today ... namely, none.
I had to work late, so I missed the Seven Foot Mahomes Bobblehead at the JC Nichols Fountain. (Dammit.)
But, if you have a few spare dollars, someone I've bought a lot of Chiefs artwork off of, Chris Sembower, is this week's artist for the GameDay poster the Chiefs are selling, and it is spectacular:
If you've got a few spare bucks (namely, about thirty of them), feel free to send some his way, via the Chiefs Team Store.
And now, today's post: a look at "Fat" Andy Reid's rebounds, his second chances.
Which, on fifth glance?
Aren't as bad as the first four glances, made them look to me ...
--------------------
2013:
We're not off to a great start here. "Fat" Andy only won one rematch out of four, and it was against the lowly oakland raiders. Having said that ... the Chiefs had nothing to play for in Week Sixteen (vs Colts) or Week Seventeen (at "Super" Chargers), as those people had already clinched the division, and the "battle" for the six seed was so ugly the Chiefs were locked into the five seed in Week Fifteen. So losing the first round to Indy, and the rematch to the "Super" Chargers doesn't bother me at all. "Fat" Andy played those games right: you try to win, but play the backups and rest up for the game that counts.
But oh brother, that game that counted. Blowing a four touchdown second half lead. Suffering the second worst collapse in postseason history. (Only the Oilers blowing a thirty two point lead at Buffalo in the 1992 Wild Card Round is greater ... or worse, depending on your perspective.)
So through one season, "Fat" Andy is 1-3-0 in the first matchup, and 1-3-0 in the second, for a total of 2-6-0 in games that count as series. That ... to channel, well, me, back in the day: (stevo in college voice) that's no bueno.
2014:
The only series in 2014 were against the division, and although there was no way to know this five years ago ... this is the last time "Fat" Andy failed to win at least five divisional games (out of six) in a season. Truly, "Fat" Andy dominance over the AFC West is nothing short of incredible -- he started 5-7 against the division ... and has gone 27-3 since, for a total of 32-10 in seven seasons. When you're guaranteed five divisional wins? You not only will hold every tiebreaker, but you simply have to go 5-5 against the rest of the schedule, to get at least a wild card berth in all likelihood, and 7-3 against the rest of the schedule all but guarantees you the division and a bye. (This season, the Chiefs went 6-0 against the division, and 6-4 against everyone else ... to get to 12-4 and a bye, for the third time in four years. The only non-bye year? They did exactly what I said two sentences ago: went 5-1 against the division, and 5-5 against everyone else, to win the West at 10-6. Winning in the division is so f*cking important in the NFL, it cannot possibly be understated.)
The Week Twelve loss at oakland in 2014 is arguably the most crushing regular season defeat of the "Fat" Andy Reid era. (And by "arguably", I mean "unquestionably".) The loss not only gave the 0-10 raiders a victory, not only cost the Chiefs a wild card berth (although the Week One loss to a god awful Titans team, and the Week Sixteen loss in Pittsburgh, didn't help either), but after undergoing some X-Rays, Chiefs S Eric Berry was diagnosed with cancer in the aftermath of that debacle of a defeat. Just a total disaster of a game, that let to a total disaster of a finish (closing 2-4 after opening 7-3).
Through two seasons, "Fat" Andy is 2-5-0 in the first matchup, and 3-4-0 in the second, for a total of 5-9-0 in series. That's still (stevo in college voice) no bueno.
2015:
Now we're talking! The only defeat in the 2015 series matchups was the epic collapse in Week Two, when the Chiefs blew a seven point lead with three minutes to play to those people. (Note: this is the only other regular season game I'd consider as the worst of the "Fat" Andy Reid era. More for off the field sh*t than on it ... and given that collapse, that's saying something.) Every other game resulted in victory, including the game all of us hoped and prayed would end satan manning's career in Week Ten. (Sadly, it did not.)
Also, don't forget how tough those last three rematches were. The "Super" Chargers game was played in below freezing temperatures with a windchill well below zero. (Trust me: I was there. It was insanely cold.) The raiders went .500 that season, building towards their "breakthrough" in 2016, and were in the thick of the wild card race well into December. (The first matchup in oakland was between two 6-5 teams.) And whatever one may think of your 2015 Houston Texans (namely, they might be the worst division winner of the last five years), they still won the division, and the Chiefs hadn't won a playoff game anywhere in twenty two years when they stepped onto the field at NRG Reliant exactly five years ago today. Nothing was a given. The Chiefs earned everything they achieved that season.
Through three seasons, "Fat" Andy is now 5-6-0 in the first matchup, and 7-4-0 in the second, for a total of 12-10-0 in series matchups. That's better.
2016:
Six and oh against the division! Awesome.
Oh and two against the Steelers. One a complete "bend over, assume the position, and take it without the lube" ass-raping, the other a home playoff defeat without allowing a touchdown. Good Lord. What a missed opportunity 2016 was.
Through four seasons, "Fat" Andy is now 8-7-0 in the first matchup, and 10-5-0 in the second, for a total of 18-12-0 in series matchups. 60% ain't bad. It beats the 33% "Fat" Andy stood at, after season uno.
2017:
One of only two seasons (2014) that featured only divisional rematches. And frankly, when your only loss in the series matchups is because the raiders got not one, not two, not three, not four, not five, not six, not seven, not eight, but nine -- NINE! -- f*cking tries from the goalline inside of ten seconds to play? I'm not going to complain about the defeat. I didn't then * , and I won't now.
Also, although some of us suspected it at the time ... that Week Seventeen win in the eighth layer of hell itself, will someday be looked upon as the moment the Chiefs fates changed forever. I know I'm right on this. And yes, it gives me sick, sadistic pleasure to know that the moment those people went from the benchmark to the used port-a-potty toilet paper of the division, occurred because of Patrick Mahomes "Of The Chiefs".
Through five seasons, "Fat" Andy is now 10-8-0 in the first matchup, and 13-5-0 in the second, for a series record of 23-13-0.
(*: this is an abject lie. I still complain about the "officiating" by Craig Wrolstad and his crew, in that game. And yes, the fact I know who officiated a random regular season three years ago frightens the hell out of me too.)
2018:
Hang on, let me check something.
(stevo looking back at his spreadsheet data ...)
Holy sh*t, Batman! 2018 is the ONLY season so far in which "Fat" Andy won the first matchup against a foe, and lost the second! (emf voice) That's unbelievable!
Of course, the two defeats to the Patriots stand out ... but given where both games stood at the half (9-24 in Foxboro, 0-14 at Arrowhead)? To lose on a field goal as time expired, and then in overtime (after having the game won, f*cking Dee Ford), I can almost live with it.
(Well, I can live with the first outcome. 2019 is all about one thing: erasing the shame, of the second one.)
Through six seasons, this puts "Fat" Andy at 13-9-0 in the first matchup, and 15-7-0 in the second, for a total of 28-16-0 in the series matchups, entering ...
2019:
And so, here we are. For the third time in four seasons, "Fat" Andy swept the division. And frankly, he didn't just "sweep" it, he dominated it. Winning by twenty four in fake mile high. Closing out the Real Black Hole by eighteen. Beating the "Super" Chargers comfortably enough in Mexico. And winning the three divisional home games by a total of fifty one points -- all by at least ten, and all save for the game against those people, by MORE than the Chiefs won the first matchup.
(And let's be fair here: winning by "only" twenty instead of twenty four, is not something to be upset about. Because we got to play in this!
So much fun! Image credit: me, via my iPhone X something.)
So entering Sunday, "Fat" Andy is 16-10-0 in the first matchup, and 18-7-0 in the second, for a total (again, entering Sunday) of 34-17-0 in series matchups, during his seven seasons here in Kansas City.
That ... well, as Vice President Biden noted in his 2008 Acceptance Speech ** : "Since I have never been called a man of few words". Neither have I sir.
But "Fat" Andy's rematch record?
Has left me speechless.
And no, I'm not referencing the highly underrated political comedy starring Geena Davis, Michael Keaton, Ernie Hudson, Bonnie Bedelia (God, I miss "Parenthood") ... and the late, great Christopher Reeve, when I type "Speechless" ...
--------------------
(**: I irrationally love that man. I always will. And I will never make any apologies for it. Even if I'm #teampete at this point. And holy hell, we're less than four weeks away from #campaign2020! This ... is going to be awesome! Right down to a brokered convention that HRC will probably steal in Milwaukee in seven months! Love it, hate it, loathe it, despise it, vote for it, vote against it, vomit at the thought of doing either of those things -- the 2020 Democratic nomination process is going to be one epic dog / pony / puppy / rubber chicken show!)
--------------------
And so, here we are. Less than seventy hours out from one of the most anticipated playoff games I can remember. In the span of seventy hours here in Kansas City, our forecast has gone from mid-40s and sunny to below freezing with ice and six to ten inches of snow on the ground *** . We're going to have a playoff game featuring two quarterbacks who rarely if ever have seen snow prior to their arrival in the National ... Football League, let alone played in it. (Patrick Mahomes "Of The Chiefs" is 2-0 in the snow, beating the Colts in last year's Divisional Round, and those people four weeks ago. I have no idea if Deshaun Watson has ever played in the snow ... but I would bet he hasn't.)
--------------------
(***: my favorite Tweet of today was from some dude (I think) from WGN in Chicago, who lamented that the NFL can't flip the Saturday and Sunday games, because if they could, we'd have snow games in both Kansas City and Green Bay. I couldn't agree more. If it's going to be miserably cold? At least let it snow! Because NOTHING sucks more than sunny, (somewhat) cloudless skies when it's negative thirteen out!)
Doubt me? Patriots at Chiefs, January 20, 2019:
So cold the godd*mned concrete is frozen.
Or Colts at Chiefs, January 12, 2019:
Yeah. Cold is always better when it's snowing. Image credit(s): me, via my iPhone X something.)
--------------------
Sunday's game is a rubber match for the Chiefs. As noted in the long-winded post above, "Fat" Andy is reasonably good at winning the second matchup, winning nearly 75% of them. (He's 18/25, or 72% entering Sunday ... and would rise to 19/26, or 73%, with a win. Or fall to 18/26, or 69%, with a loss. That's ... that's not a big move either way, actually.)
As also noted in the clipped spreadsheet above, the Chiefs are guaranteed, with a win, another rubber match -- either they will host the Titans (who beat the Chiefs in Nashville) or visit the Ravens (who we beat at Arrowhead).
And should the Chiefs emerge victorious from these next two -- versus Houston and TBD? They've got a 50/50 shot at a third rematch against either the Packers (who won at Arrowhead) or the Vikings (who lost at Arrowhead) ... or face a team they have played within the last sixteen months: the 49ers (who lost at Arrowhead) or Seahawks (who won at Century Link).
This league's teams are getting so cozy with each other, we might have to contemplate incest charges, by the time 2022 arrives.
--------------------
I entered this exercise worried about what the "series matchups" numbers would look like, especially after seeing the 2013 and 2014 results.
I emerge from it strangely and quietly confident about what is about to happen.
Because while there may be lies, damned lies, and statisticals?
#FactsDontLie
And the facts are this:
* "Fat" Andy is 18-3 after a bye in the regular season (5-2 in Kansas City).
* He is a more remarkable 5-1 in the postseason after a bye (1-1 in Kansas City).
6-3 in KC with an extra week to prepare. 18-7 in his second chance at an opponent in the same season, here in Kansas City, with Sunday (and hopefully next week) to pad the record even better.
I'll take my chances on Sunday. Because the odds are? The second chance is going to pay off.
May the goodbye from Philadelphia ... mean the greatest decision ever, regarding the second chance "Fat" Andy Reid has in front of him. Please, let this happen.
--------------------
Until tomorrow, once again:
And by the way?
I made it through the day.
I watched the world outside;
And by the way?
I'm leaving out today.
I just saw Haley's comet;
She waved, and said
Why're you always running in place?
Even the man in the moon
Disappeared?
Somewhere in the stratosphere!
Tell my mother!
Tell my father!
That I've done the best I can
To make them realize --
This is my life!
I hope they understand!
I'm not angry.
I'm just saying?
Sometimes goodbye is a second chance ...
-- "Second Chance" by Shinedown.
--------------------
Not many status updates to report today ... namely, none.
I had to work late, so I missed the Seven Foot Mahomes Bobblehead at the JC Nichols Fountain. (Dammit.)
But, if you have a few spare dollars, someone I've bought a lot of Chiefs artwork off of, Chris Sembower, is this week's artist for the GameDay poster the Chiefs are selling, and it is spectacular:
If you've got a few spare bucks (namely, about thirty of them), feel free to send some his way, via the Chiefs Team Store.
And now, today's post: a look at "Fat" Andy Reid's rebounds, his second chances.
Which, on fifth glance?
Aren't as bad as the first four glances, made them look to me ...
--------------------
2013:
We're not off to a great start here. "Fat" Andy only won one rematch out of four, and it was against the lowly oakland raiders. Having said that ... the Chiefs had nothing to play for in Week Sixteen (vs Colts) or Week Seventeen (at "Super" Chargers), as those people had already clinched the division, and the "battle" for the six seed was so ugly the Chiefs were locked into the five seed in Week Fifteen. So losing the first round to Indy, and the rematch to the "Super" Chargers doesn't bother me at all. "Fat" Andy played those games right: you try to win, but play the backups and rest up for the game that counts.
But oh brother, that game that counted. Blowing a four touchdown second half lead. Suffering the second worst collapse in postseason history. (Only the Oilers blowing a thirty two point lead at Buffalo in the 1992 Wild Card Round is greater ... or worse, depending on your perspective.)
So through one season, "Fat" Andy is 1-3-0 in the first matchup, and 1-3-0 in the second, for a total of 2-6-0 in games that count as series. That ... to channel, well, me, back in the day: (stevo in college voice) that's no bueno.
2014:
The only series in 2014 were against the division, and although there was no way to know this five years ago ... this is the last time "Fat" Andy failed to win at least five divisional games (out of six) in a season. Truly, "Fat" Andy dominance over the AFC West is nothing short of incredible -- he started 5-7 against the division ... and has gone 27-3 since, for a total of 32-10 in seven seasons. When you're guaranteed five divisional wins? You not only will hold every tiebreaker, but you simply have to go 5-5 against the rest of the schedule, to get at least a wild card berth in all likelihood, and 7-3 against the rest of the schedule all but guarantees you the division and a bye. (This season, the Chiefs went 6-0 against the division, and 6-4 against everyone else ... to get to 12-4 and a bye, for the third time in four years. The only non-bye year? They did exactly what I said two sentences ago: went 5-1 against the division, and 5-5 against everyone else, to win the West at 10-6. Winning in the division is so f*cking important in the NFL, it cannot possibly be understated.)
The Week Twelve loss at oakland in 2014 is arguably the most crushing regular season defeat of the "Fat" Andy Reid era. (And by "arguably", I mean "unquestionably".) The loss not only gave the 0-10 raiders a victory, not only cost the Chiefs a wild card berth (although the Week One loss to a god awful Titans team, and the Week Sixteen loss in Pittsburgh, didn't help either), but after undergoing some X-Rays, Chiefs S Eric Berry was diagnosed with cancer in the aftermath of that debacle of a defeat. Just a total disaster of a game, that let to a total disaster of a finish (closing 2-4 after opening 7-3).
Through two seasons, "Fat" Andy is 2-5-0 in the first matchup, and 3-4-0 in the second, for a total of 5-9-0 in series. That's still (stevo in college voice) no bueno.
2015:
Now we're talking! The only defeat in the 2015 series matchups was the epic collapse in Week Two, when the Chiefs blew a seven point lead with three minutes to play to those people. (Note: this is the only other regular season game I'd consider as the worst of the "Fat" Andy Reid era. More for off the field sh*t than on it ... and given that collapse, that's saying something.) Every other game resulted in victory, including the game all of us hoped and prayed would end satan manning's career in Week Ten. (Sadly, it did not.)
Also, don't forget how tough those last three rematches were. The "Super" Chargers game was played in below freezing temperatures with a windchill well below zero. (Trust me: I was there. It was insanely cold.) The raiders went .500 that season, building towards their "breakthrough" in 2016, and were in the thick of the wild card race well into December. (The first matchup in oakland was between two 6-5 teams.) And whatever one may think of your 2015 Houston Texans (namely, they might be the worst division winner of the last five years), they still won the division, and the Chiefs hadn't won a playoff game anywhere in twenty two years when they stepped onto the field at NRG Reliant exactly five years ago today. Nothing was a given. The Chiefs earned everything they achieved that season.
Through three seasons, "Fat" Andy is now 5-6-0 in the first matchup, and 7-4-0 in the second, for a total of 12-10-0 in series matchups. That's better.
2016:
Six and oh against the division! Awesome.
Oh and two against the Steelers. One a complete "bend over, assume the position, and take it without the lube" ass-raping, the other a home playoff defeat without allowing a touchdown. Good Lord. What a missed opportunity 2016 was.
Through four seasons, "Fat" Andy is now 8-7-0 in the first matchup, and 10-5-0 in the second, for a total of 18-12-0 in series matchups. 60% ain't bad. It beats the 33% "Fat" Andy stood at, after season uno.
2017:
One of only two seasons (2014) that featured only divisional rematches. And frankly, when your only loss in the series matchups is because the raiders got not one, not two, not three, not four, not five, not six, not seven, not eight, but nine -- NINE! -- f*cking tries from the goalline inside of ten seconds to play? I'm not going to complain about the defeat. I didn't then * , and I won't now.
Also, although some of us suspected it at the time ... that Week Seventeen win in the eighth layer of hell itself, will someday be looked upon as the moment the Chiefs fates changed forever. I know I'm right on this. And yes, it gives me sick, sadistic pleasure to know that the moment those people went from the benchmark to the used port-a-potty toilet paper of the division, occurred because of Patrick Mahomes "Of The Chiefs".
Through five seasons, "Fat" Andy is now 10-8-0 in the first matchup, and 13-5-0 in the second, for a series record of 23-13-0.
(*: this is an abject lie. I still complain about the "officiating" by Craig Wrolstad and his crew, in that game. And yes, the fact I know who officiated a random regular season three years ago frightens the hell out of me too.)
2018:
Hang on, let me check something.
(stevo looking back at his spreadsheet data ...)
Holy sh*t, Batman! 2018 is the ONLY season so far in which "Fat" Andy won the first matchup against a foe, and lost the second! (emf voice) That's unbelievable!
Of course, the two defeats to the Patriots stand out ... but given where both games stood at the half (9-24 in Foxboro, 0-14 at Arrowhead)? To lose on a field goal as time expired, and then in overtime (after having the game won, f*cking Dee Ford), I can almost live with it.
(Well, I can live with the first outcome. 2019 is all about one thing: erasing the shame, of the second one.)
Through six seasons, this puts "Fat" Andy at 13-9-0 in the first matchup, and 15-7-0 in the second, for a total of 28-16-0 in the series matchups, entering ...
2019:
And so, here we are. For the third time in four seasons, "Fat" Andy swept the division. And frankly, he didn't just "sweep" it, he dominated it. Winning by twenty four in fake mile high. Closing out the Real Black Hole by eighteen. Beating the "Super" Chargers comfortably enough in Mexico. And winning the three divisional home games by a total of fifty one points -- all by at least ten, and all save for the game against those people, by MORE than the Chiefs won the first matchup.
(And let's be fair here: winning by "only" twenty instead of twenty four, is not something to be upset about. Because we got to play in this!
So much fun! Image credit: me, via my iPhone X something.)
So entering Sunday, "Fat" Andy is 16-10-0 in the first matchup, and 18-7-0 in the second, for a total (again, entering Sunday) of 34-17-0 in series matchups, during his seven seasons here in Kansas City.
That ... well, as Vice President Biden noted in his 2008 Acceptance Speech ** : "Since I have never been called a man of few words". Neither have I sir.
But "Fat" Andy's rematch record?
Has left me speechless.
And no, I'm not referencing the highly underrated political comedy starring Geena Davis, Michael Keaton, Ernie Hudson, Bonnie Bedelia (God, I miss "Parenthood") ... and the late, great Christopher Reeve, when I type "Speechless" ...
--------------------
(**: I irrationally love that man. I always will. And I will never make any apologies for it. Even if I'm #teampete at this point. And holy hell, we're less than four weeks away from #campaign2020! This ... is going to be awesome! Right down to a brokered convention that HRC will probably steal in Milwaukee in seven months! Love it, hate it, loathe it, despise it, vote for it, vote against it, vomit at the thought of doing either of those things -- the 2020 Democratic nomination process is going to be one epic dog / pony / puppy / rubber chicken show!)
--------------------
And so, here we are. Less than seventy hours out from one of the most anticipated playoff games I can remember. In the span of seventy hours here in Kansas City, our forecast has gone from mid-40s and sunny to below freezing with ice and six to ten inches of snow on the ground *** . We're going to have a playoff game featuring two quarterbacks who rarely if ever have seen snow prior to their arrival in the National ... Football League, let alone played in it. (Patrick Mahomes "Of The Chiefs" is 2-0 in the snow, beating the Colts in last year's Divisional Round, and those people four weeks ago. I have no idea if Deshaun Watson has ever played in the snow ... but I would bet he hasn't.)
--------------------
(***: my favorite Tweet of today was from some dude (I think) from WGN in Chicago, who lamented that the NFL can't flip the Saturday and Sunday games, because if they could, we'd have snow games in both Kansas City and Green Bay. I couldn't agree more. If it's going to be miserably cold? At least let it snow! Because NOTHING sucks more than sunny, (somewhat) cloudless skies when it's negative thirteen out!)
Doubt me? Patriots at Chiefs, January 20, 2019:
So cold the godd*mned concrete is frozen.
Or Colts at Chiefs, January 12, 2019:
Yeah. Cold is always better when it's snowing. Image credit(s): me, via my iPhone X something.)
--------------------
Sunday's game is a rubber match for the Chiefs. As noted in the long-winded post above, "Fat" Andy is reasonably good at winning the second matchup, winning nearly 75% of them. (He's 18/25, or 72% entering Sunday ... and would rise to 19/26, or 73%, with a win. Or fall to 18/26, or 69%, with a loss. That's ... that's not a big move either way, actually.)
As also noted in the clipped spreadsheet above, the Chiefs are guaranteed, with a win, another rubber match -- either they will host the Titans (who beat the Chiefs in Nashville) or visit the Ravens (who we beat at Arrowhead).
And should the Chiefs emerge victorious from these next two -- versus Houston and TBD? They've got a 50/50 shot at a third rematch against either the Packers (who won at Arrowhead) or the Vikings (who lost at Arrowhead) ... or face a team they have played within the last sixteen months: the 49ers (who lost at Arrowhead) or Seahawks (who won at Century Link).
This league's teams are getting so cozy with each other, we might have to contemplate incest charges, by the time 2022 arrives.
--------------------
I entered this exercise worried about what the "series matchups" numbers would look like, especially after seeing the 2013 and 2014 results.
I emerge from it strangely and quietly confident about what is about to happen.
Because while there may be lies, damned lies, and statisticals?
#FactsDontLie
And the facts are this:
* "Fat" Andy is 18-3 after a bye in the regular season (5-2 in Kansas City).
* He is a more remarkable 5-1 in the postseason after a bye (1-1 in Kansas City).
6-3 in KC with an extra week to prepare. 18-7 in his second chance at an opponent in the same season, here in Kansas City, with Sunday (and hopefully next week) to pad the record even better.
I'll take my chances on Sunday. Because the odds are? The second chance is going to pay off.
May the goodbye from Philadelphia ... mean the greatest decision ever, regarding the second chance "Fat" Andy Reid has in front of him. Please, let this happen.
--------------------
Until tomorrow, once again:
Thursday, January 2, 2020
what seven years can mean ...
"I got my old man's Delta 88;
The windows cracked, I'm on the interstate.
Just a hundred miles to go,
On half a tank of gasoline.
Lucky Charms and Tic Tacs --
And mom's amphetamines.
A hundred miles to go to Kansas City!
(January) kinda makes me crazy!
A hundred miles to go to Kansas City!
Will you still be calling me your baby?
I met a man in a diner outside of Hays.
He said marriage brought him there;
It was divorce that made him stay.
I drove straight through to Junction City;
I thought I'd call you in Topeka,
But I didn't want the pity.
A hundred miles to go to Kansas City!
Yeah, (January) makes me kinda crazy!
A hundred miles to go to Kansas City!
Will you still be calling me your baby?
It feels like I've been thrown into the slammer,
With the back end of a hammer
Drawn through my strings!
Living became needing;
And crying became bleeding.
And now? I am only dreaming ...
A hundred miles to go to Kansas City!
(January) makes me kinda crazy!
Oh, a hundred miles to go to Kansas City!
Will you still be calling me your baby?
Will you still be calling me ..."
-- "Kansas City" by Melissa Etheridge. Please, dear God, I don't ask you for much, but please, please, please, let her sing the National Anthem next Sunday. Or lead us in The Chop. Because good grief, if you'll let Tech N9ne serve as our "spiritual leader", certainly Melissa Etheridge is up to the task ... yeah, she's definitely up to the task ...
--------------------
Arrowhead Pride posted earlier this week what they thought were the most important headlines from the past decade of Chiefs football.
As you might imagine, I have my opinion as to what the most important "headline" -- or moment, if you will -- of this past decade of Chiefs football, was.
And no, it wasn't the Chiefs drafting Patrick Mahomes "of the Chiefs".
--------------------
Also, earlier this week, Arrowhead Pride played host to one of the dumbest, stupidest, mentally challenged fanposts I've ever read. And given that I (at least sometimes) proof read these posts before they, uuh, post, trust me kids -- I've read some dumb, stupid, mentally challenged things before.
Here is a link to the post, in case you want to see what someone who should be required to walk around in a drool guard and a helmet at all times, thinks like.
The only thing I could think reading Mr. Harley's post -- other than the obvious -- is that this dude clearly has no idea why the hiring of "Fat" Andy Reid on January 4, 2013, was not only the single most important "headline" of the Chiefs decade ... but is without question -- (allard baird voice) without question! -- the second most important Chiefs "headline" of my lifetime, second only to the Chiefs hiring of former Philadelphia Stars general manager Carl Peterson, to oversee their football operation, on December 19, 1988.
So, let's clue Mr. Harley in, shall we, as to the State of the Franchise on my birthday, seven years ago ... versus the State of the Franchise on my birthday, seven years later ... with said birthday, being tomorrow.
--------------------
For those of you reading this who don't remember the stretch of Chiefs football between Richard A. Vermeil and "Fat" Andy Reid, let's begin with a refresher for you.
(And for those of you reading this who do remember the stretch of Chiefs football between Richard A. Vermeil and "Fat" Andy Reid, you might want to go pour yourself a very, very, very stiff drink. It's cool. I can wait. In fact, I'm going to join you in pouring that stiff drink. Reliving these seven years via doing the research of them, means I've more than earned it.)
--------------------
As I have noted before, there are lies, damned lies, and statisticals. (Note: I am sure I stole that line from someone. I'm not creative enough to come up with that one on my own.)
For the 2006 through 2012 Chiefs, the statisticals don't lie, damned or otherwise. They're all true. They're all brutal. They're all awful. In case you doubt me, here are the seven seasons that comprised those, uuh, seven seasons:
The meaningful statisticals that jump out at you (or at least to me) on first glance:
* Point Differential. It's the most meaningful statistical in sports, dating back to when our good friend Hubie Brown, during his run as the head coach of the Kentucky Colonels * , first popularized the stat. He noted forty years ago that if his team scored 100 points / game (while allowing 100), they'd go .500. (Note: no sh*t, Sherlock). But he also noted that if his team scored 105 points / game (while allowing 100), they'd win 50, and if he could up that total to 110 points / game (versus allowing 100), they'd win 60.
Look at the point differential for the Chiefs in these seven years. Only twice was it positive -- in 2006 (by one point!) and 2010 (by seventeen points).
Which probably explains ...
* The Losing. Five losing seasons, four of them featuring at least twelve losses. A stretch from the bye in 2007 through Week Five 2009 that saw the Chiefs lose twelve straight, win once, lose seven straight, win once, then lose nine straight. For those doing the math at home or in the second office, that's a 2-28 stretch. Two. And. Twenty Eight.
Also, every season save 2010 saw at least one three game losing streak ... and every season save 2010 and 2006, saw at least a four game losing streak.
And yes, the Chiefs really did lose two out of every three games they played, in this five year stretch.
Probably because of ...
* The Utter Stench of Sh*t at the Quarterback Position. The Chiefs played 114 games that count in these seven years (112 regular season, 2 postseason). These are the quarterbacks who started those 114 games:
Matt Cassel: 48 (includes one postseason start).
Damon Huard: 21.
Tyler Thigpen: 11.
"Brokie" Croyle: 10.
Trent Green: 9 (includes one postseason start).
Brady Quinn: 8.
Tyler Palko: 4.
Kyle Orton: 3.
And those quarterbacks record in their games played:
Matt Cassel: 19-29-0 (0-1-0 postseason).
Damon Huard: 10-11-0.
Tyler Thigpen: 1-10-0.
"Brokie" Croyle: 0-10-0.
Trent Green: 4-5-0 (0-1-0 postseason).
Brady Quinn: 1-7-0.
Tyler Palko: 1-3-0.
Kyle Orton: 2-1-0.
When the only starter with a winning record, is the one who has played the fewest games, it's probably not going to end well for you. It certainly didn't for the Chiefs.
Also playing a key role in that craptacular stretch of ineptitude?
* The Instability at Offensive Coordinator. The Chiefs had five different offensive coordinators in the final five seasons of this stretch, and six in these seven years. Forget how destabilizing having three head coaches in five years is; when your offensive playbook hits the reset button virtually every offseason?
I don't care who you have under center, it's not going to end well for you. It certainly didn't for the Chiefs -- the only two times in these seven years when the Chiefs ranked in the top half of the league? Were the only two playoff (and winning) seasons.
And even then, finishing 15th and 14th (out of 32) is not something to write home to your mommy about. Let alone brag to your bros about.
And finally, the "statistical" that isn't there.
* Saturday, December 1, 2012. Simply put -- and I would argue this really isn't, uuh, arguable -- simply put, the darkest day in Chiefs history. The lowest moment in the history of the franchise. The day when linebacker Jovan Belcher coldly and calculatingly killed his fiance (and mother of his child), before driving to Arrowhead and killing himself in front of Defensive Coordinator Gary Gibbs, Head Coach Baffoon, and General Manager Scott "Candy Wrapper" Pioli.
Just when you think things could not get worse -- remember, the 2012 Chiefs had led for less than twenty minutes in eleven games up to that point, they hadn't scored an offensive touchdown in over a month, and the fans who did show up (hey, that's me!) were wearing black and turning Arrowhead into a funeral parlor -- well, go figure.
Arrowhead did become a literal funeral parlor, on that tragic Saturday morning.
I went back and read my recap of that day and its' aftermath on Tuesday night, when I began typing this post. (Note: to this day, it is still the most clicked / read post in this site's (now three decade posting!) history.) And while some of it doesn't stand up seven years later (why did I ever give those two "friends" the benefit of the doubt), one thing in that post has definitely stood the test of time:
Exactly four weeks after I posted that, uuh, post, Coach Baffoon was relieved of his, uuh, coaching duties, following (go figure) four more losses to close out the worst season in franchise history, to close out arguably the worst seven year stretch in franchise history, to close out one sad, pathetic, miserable stretch of football, even by Chiefs standards. And yes, I am fully aware the Chiefs once went fifteen years without coming within even a game, of a wild card berth, let alone a division championship.
Exactly five days after arriving at that decision?
Clark Hunt made the "headline" of the decade.
--------------------
(*: Wow, didn't expect to write that much before coming back to the * . If you have never read "Loose Balls" by Terry Pluto, well, you should. It's the greatest basketball book I've ever read -- it's a (mostly oral) history of the greatest basketball association ever formed, the original ABA. Everything I -- and most of you -- enjoy about the game today? Occurred because the owners of the ABA had the balls to try it. Right down to the red, white, and blue ball that the NBA still uses as the "money ball" on All Star Saturday night -- an event that you're damned right, the ABA came up with, over forty years ago.)
--------------------
As you might expect, I had a reaction when Mr. Hunt made the "Headline O' The Decade" by hiring "Fat" Andy Reid. As you might not expect, I was anything but happy about the hiring. (Note: I have rarely -- if ever -- been more wrong about something, than I was about how I thought "Fat" Andy Reid's tenure here in Kansas City would go.)
But -- I think! -- I think I got one thing right, in that "boy, Stevo is a dumb f*ck idiot" post:
So ... which "Fat" Andy Reid did the Chiefs get?
I'm so glad you asked ...
--------------------
Because here are the statisticals from the (first) seven years of the "Fat" Andy Reid era, through last Sunday:
Sweet Jesus, what a difference competent coaching makes, huh? There are five statisticals that stand out to me, at first glance, and let's begin with the Captain Oats in the room:
* The Winning. The Chiefs have posted at least one five game winning streak, every season under "Fat" Andy. Every. Single. Season. And in six of the seven, they have posted at least a six game winning streak (all but 2014).
The Chiefs have won their opener six times out of seven (all but 2014 ** ). They have opened 2-2 or better six out of seven seasons (all but 2015). The last three seasons -- all ending in AFC West Division Championships -- the Chiefs have opened at least 4-0, all but burying the divisional competition before the season hits the quarter pole.
Oh, and the previous seven years, which saw the Chiefs lose two out of every three games they played?
The Chiefs have won two out of every three games, "Fat" Andy has coached.
(**: hey, remember when I did game recaps and tailgating highlights on this site? Yeah, me neither.)
Of course, a key reason the Chiefs manage to go strokin' ... I mean, streakin' every season?
Well, duh ...
* The Scoring. The previous seven seasons, the Chiefs averaged a little over seventeen points a game; under "Fat" Andy, they average -- average! -- almost twenty nine. "Fat" Andy has literally given the Chiefs a two touchdown advantage, every game, over his three predecessors, combined!
And you say, "well, he has Patrick Mahomes", which is a valid argument ... but it's not like "Sir" Alex Smith was a bumbling idiot along the lines of "Brokie" Croyle or Tyler Palko. The Chiefs were NEVER shut out -- not even once -- with "Sir" Alex under center. They failed to score double digits only twice -- a "nobody gives a damn" game against the Colts in 2013 (the Chiefs were already locked into the five seed), and the one indefensible game of the "Sir" Alex era, at the Giants in 2017.
Which leads to the third statistical to be noted ...
* The Point Differential. The Chiefs have yet to post a negative point differential under "Fat" Andy. They have yet to post less than a plus seventy differential (which per the Pythagorean Theorem, is an expected nine plus wins, every season. The Chiefs have met their Pythagorean number, or exceeded it, every season so far under "Fat" Andy.)
One big reason for that point differential? Of course.
* The Consistency at Quarterback. "Sir" Alex Smith missed one game in five years due to injury (Week Nine 2016 vs Jaguars). Patrick Mahomes "of the Chiefs" has missed two games in two years due to injury (Weeks Eight and Nine 2019).
Just like the previous seven years were defined by constant turnover at the most important position, these seven years have been defined by no turnover at the most important position. Here is how the 119 starts (so far) break down by starter:
* "Sir" Alex Smith: 81 (includes five postseason starts).
* Patrick Mahomes "of the Chiefs": 33 (includes two postseason starts).
* Chase Daniel: 2.
* Matt Moore: 2.
* Nick Foles: 1.
And here are the starters' records in the last seven years:
* "Sir" Alex Smith: 51-30-0 (1-4-0 postseason).
* Patrick Mahomes "of the Chiefs": 25-8-0 (1-1-0 postseason).
* Chase Daniel: 1-1-0.
* Matt Moore: 1-1-0.
* Nick Foles: 1-0-0.
When your established starting quarterback(s) make 113 of 119 starts, and win two out of every three starts they make? Things are going to end well for you. And they have for the Chiefs.
As evidenced by ...
* The Postseason Appearances. The Chiefs have made the playoffs six of the seven seasons under "Fat" Andy, and were the first team out, the only season they missed (2014). Under "Fat" Andy, the Chiefs won their first playoff game in a generation (2015), their first home playoff game in a generation (2018), and hosted the AFC Title Game for the first time (2018). They will play at a minimum a fifth straight home playoff game (please ignore the 1-3 record in the prior four ... although the three losses are by nine total points, and one was in overtime), and are a nearly 75% favorite to reach the AFC Title Game for a second straight season. Considering the Chiefs have made two AFC Title Games in my lifetime -- and I turn 43 tomorrow -- that's one impressive run by Chiefs standards.
--------------------
No matter how this Mr. Harley dude wants to complain, b*tch and moan? (Which is his right to do, to be fair.)
What's his beef? That we don't suck anymore, since "Fat" Andy Reid came to town?
--------------------
Seven years ago, this franchise lay in utter and total (stewie griffin voice) roo-eens. About to hire a fourth head coach in seven years. About to employ a sixth offensive coordinator in seven years. A glaring hole at quarterback on the field, utterly senseless and deadly holes in players and loved ones of players, off the field.
Today, thanks to one "headline", the past is dead and buried so deep, we needn't fear a zombie attack from it. Thanks to one "headline", the Chiefs have gone from the doormat of the division, to the alpha male of the division. Thanks to one "headline", the Chiefs are positioned to dominate the decade in the AFC, much like the Philadelphia Eagles did for most of the previous decade in the NFC. (Seriously, five title games in eight years. That is insane.)
How awesome it is, that that "headline", is ours.
Enjoy the games everyone. And realize just how far we've come in seven years. Seven years ago, the Divisional Round was a crack pipe dream. Today? It's not enough.
All thanks to one "headline", seven years ago, (jimmy buffett voice) come Saturday.
There's only one correct answer, for the defining Chiefs moment of the decade.
The hiring of Andrew Walter Reid.
And anyone who argues otherwise, should probably seek help from a mental health professional. (Pause). What? (Pause). Well of course I can offer up some gifted professionals in the crazy field! I'm pretty sure I've laid on their couch a time or three in my life ...
The windows cracked, I'm on the interstate.
Just a hundred miles to go,
On half a tank of gasoline.
Lucky Charms and Tic Tacs --
And mom's amphetamines.
A hundred miles to go to Kansas City!
(January) kinda makes me crazy!
A hundred miles to go to Kansas City!
Will you still be calling me your baby?
I met a man in a diner outside of Hays.
He said marriage brought him there;
It was divorce that made him stay.
I drove straight through to Junction City;
I thought I'd call you in Topeka,
But I didn't want the pity.
A hundred miles to go to Kansas City!
Yeah, (January) makes me kinda crazy!
A hundred miles to go to Kansas City!
Will you still be calling me your baby?
It feels like I've been thrown into the slammer,
With the back end of a hammer
Drawn through my strings!
Living became needing;
And crying became bleeding.
And now? I am only dreaming ...
A hundred miles to go to Kansas City!
(January) makes me kinda crazy!
Oh, a hundred miles to go to Kansas City!
Will you still be calling me your baby?
Will you still be calling me ..."
-- "Kansas City" by Melissa Etheridge. Please, dear God, I don't ask you for much, but please, please, please, let her sing the National Anthem next Sunday. Or lead us in The Chop. Because good grief, if you'll let Tech N9ne serve as our "spiritual leader", certainly Melissa Etheridge is up to the task ... yeah, she's definitely up to the task ...
--------------------
Arrowhead Pride posted earlier this week what they thought were the most important headlines from the past decade of Chiefs football.
As you might imagine, I have my opinion as to what the most important "headline" -- or moment, if you will -- of this past decade of Chiefs football, was.
And no, it wasn't the Chiefs drafting Patrick Mahomes "of the Chiefs".
--------------------
Also, earlier this week, Arrowhead Pride played host to one of the dumbest, stupidest, mentally challenged fanposts I've ever read. And given that I (at least sometimes) proof read these posts before they, uuh, post, trust me kids -- I've read some dumb, stupid, mentally challenged things before.
Here is a link to the post, in case you want to see what someone who should be required to walk around in a drool guard and a helmet at all times, thinks like.
The only thing I could think reading Mr. Harley's post -- other than the obvious -- is that this dude clearly has no idea why the hiring of "Fat" Andy Reid on January 4, 2013, was not only the single most important "headline" of the Chiefs decade ... but is without question -- (allard baird voice) without question! -- the second most important Chiefs "headline" of my lifetime, second only to the Chiefs hiring of former Philadelphia Stars general manager Carl Peterson, to oversee their football operation, on December 19, 1988.
So, let's clue Mr. Harley in, shall we, as to the State of the Franchise on my birthday, seven years ago ... versus the State of the Franchise on my birthday, seven years later ... with said birthday, being tomorrow.
--------------------
For those of you reading this who don't remember the stretch of Chiefs football between Richard A. Vermeil and "Fat" Andy Reid, let's begin with a refresher for you.
(And for those of you reading this who do remember the stretch of Chiefs football between Richard A. Vermeil and "Fat" Andy Reid, you might want to go pour yourself a very, very, very stiff drink. It's cool. I can wait. In fact, I'm going to join you in pouring that stiff drink. Reliving these seven years via doing the research of them, means I've more than earned it.)
--------------------
As I have noted before, there are lies, damned lies, and statisticals. (Note: I am sure I stole that line from someone. I'm not creative enough to come up with that one on my own.)
For the 2006 through 2012 Chiefs, the statisticals don't lie, damned or otherwise. They're all true. They're all brutal. They're all awful. In case you doubt me, here are the seven seasons that comprised those, uuh, seven seasons:
The meaningful statisticals that jump out at you (or at least to me) on first glance:
* Point Differential. It's the most meaningful statistical in sports, dating back to when our good friend Hubie Brown, during his run as the head coach of the Kentucky Colonels * , first popularized the stat. He noted forty years ago that if his team scored 100 points / game (while allowing 100), they'd go .500. (Note: no sh*t, Sherlock). But he also noted that if his team scored 105 points / game (while allowing 100), they'd win 50, and if he could up that total to 110 points / game (versus allowing 100), they'd win 60.
Look at the point differential for the Chiefs in these seven years. Only twice was it positive -- in 2006 (by one point!) and 2010 (by seventeen points).
Which probably explains ...
* The Losing. Five losing seasons, four of them featuring at least twelve losses. A stretch from the bye in 2007 through Week Five 2009 that saw the Chiefs lose twelve straight, win once, lose seven straight, win once, then lose nine straight. For those doing the math at home or in the second office, that's a 2-28 stretch. Two. And. Twenty Eight.
Also, every season save 2010 saw at least one three game losing streak ... and every season save 2010 and 2006, saw at least a four game losing streak.
And yes, the Chiefs really did lose two out of every three games they played, in this five year stretch.
Probably because of ...
* The Utter Stench of Sh*t at the Quarterback Position. The Chiefs played 114 games that count in these seven years (112 regular season, 2 postseason). These are the quarterbacks who started those 114 games:
Matt Cassel: 48 (includes one postseason start).
Damon Huard: 21.
Tyler Thigpen: 11.
"Brokie" Croyle: 10.
Trent Green: 9 (includes one postseason start).
Brady Quinn: 8.
Tyler Palko: 4.
Kyle Orton: 3.
And those quarterbacks record in their games played:
Matt Cassel: 19-29-0 (0-1-0 postseason).
Damon Huard: 10-11-0.
Tyler Thigpen: 1-10-0.
"Brokie" Croyle: 0-10-0.
Trent Green: 4-5-0 (0-1-0 postseason).
Brady Quinn: 1-7-0.
Tyler Palko: 1-3-0.
Kyle Orton: 2-1-0.
When the only starter with a winning record, is the one who has played the fewest games, it's probably not going to end well for you. It certainly didn't for the Chiefs.
Also playing a key role in that craptacular stretch of ineptitude?
* The Instability at Offensive Coordinator. The Chiefs had five different offensive coordinators in the final five seasons of this stretch, and six in these seven years. Forget how destabilizing having three head coaches in five years is; when your offensive playbook hits the reset button virtually every offseason?
I don't care who you have under center, it's not going to end well for you. It certainly didn't for the Chiefs -- the only two times in these seven years when the Chiefs ranked in the top half of the league? Were the only two playoff (and winning) seasons.
And even then, finishing 15th and 14th (out of 32) is not something to write home to your mommy about. Let alone brag to your bros about.
And finally, the "statistical" that isn't there.
* Saturday, December 1, 2012. Simply put -- and I would argue this really isn't, uuh, arguable -- simply put, the darkest day in Chiefs history. The lowest moment in the history of the franchise. The day when linebacker Jovan Belcher coldly and calculatingly killed his fiance (and mother of his child), before driving to Arrowhead and killing himself in front of Defensive Coordinator Gary Gibbs, Head Coach Baffoon, and General Manager Scott "Candy Wrapper" Pioli.
Just when you think things could not get worse -- remember, the 2012 Chiefs had led for less than twenty minutes in eleven games up to that point, they hadn't scored an offensive touchdown in over a month, and the fans who did show up (hey, that's me!) were wearing black and turning Arrowhead into a funeral parlor -- well, go figure.
Arrowhead did become a literal funeral parlor, on that tragic Saturday morning.
I went back and read my recap of that day and its' aftermath on Tuesday night, when I began typing this post. (Note: to this day, it is still the most clicked / read post in this site's (now three decade posting!) history.) And while some of it doesn't stand up seven years later (why did I ever give those two "friends" the benefit of the doubt), one thing in that post has definitely stood the test of time:
Exactly four weeks after I posted that, uuh, post, Coach Baffoon was relieved of his, uuh, coaching duties, following (go figure) four more losses to close out the worst season in franchise history, to close out arguably the worst seven year stretch in franchise history, to close out one sad, pathetic, miserable stretch of football, even by Chiefs standards. And yes, I am fully aware the Chiefs once went fifteen years without coming within even a game, of a wild card berth, let alone a division championship.
Exactly five days after arriving at that decision?
Clark Hunt made the "headline" of the decade.
--------------------
(*: Wow, didn't expect to write that much before coming back to the * . If you have never read "Loose Balls" by Terry Pluto, well, you should. It's the greatest basketball book I've ever read -- it's a (mostly oral) history of the greatest basketball association ever formed, the original ABA. Everything I -- and most of you -- enjoy about the game today? Occurred because the owners of the ABA had the balls to try it. Right down to the red, white, and blue ball that the NBA still uses as the "money ball" on All Star Saturday night -- an event that you're damned right, the ABA came up with, over forty years ago.)
--------------------
As you might expect, I had a reaction when Mr. Hunt made the "Headline O' The Decade" by hiring "Fat" Andy Reid. As you might not expect, I was anything but happy about the hiring. (Note: I have rarely -- if ever -- been more wrong about something, than I was about how I thought "Fat" Andy Reid's tenure here in Kansas City would go.)
But -- I think! -- I think I got one thing right, in that "boy, Stevo is a dumb f*ck idiot" post:
So ... which "Fat" Andy Reid did the Chiefs get?
I'm so glad you asked ...
--------------------
Because here are the statisticals from the (first) seven years of the "Fat" Andy Reid era, through last Sunday:
Sweet Jesus, what a difference competent coaching makes, huh? There are five statisticals that stand out to me, at first glance, and let's begin with the Captain Oats in the room:
* The Winning. The Chiefs have posted at least one five game winning streak, every season under "Fat" Andy. Every. Single. Season. And in six of the seven, they have posted at least a six game winning streak (all but 2014).
The Chiefs have won their opener six times out of seven (all but 2014 ** ). They have opened 2-2 or better six out of seven seasons (all but 2015). The last three seasons -- all ending in AFC West Division Championships -- the Chiefs have opened at least 4-0, all but burying the divisional competition before the season hits the quarter pole.
Oh, and the previous seven years, which saw the Chiefs lose two out of every three games they played?
The Chiefs have won two out of every three games, "Fat" Andy has coached.
(**: hey, remember when I did game recaps and tailgating highlights on this site? Yeah, me neither.)
Of course, a key reason the Chiefs manage to go strokin' ... I mean, streakin' every season?
Well, duh ...
* The Scoring. The previous seven seasons, the Chiefs averaged a little over seventeen points a game; under "Fat" Andy, they average -- average! -- almost twenty nine. "Fat" Andy has literally given the Chiefs a two touchdown advantage, every game, over his three predecessors, combined!
And you say, "well, he has Patrick Mahomes", which is a valid argument ... but it's not like "Sir" Alex Smith was a bumbling idiot along the lines of "Brokie" Croyle or Tyler Palko. The Chiefs were NEVER shut out -- not even once -- with "Sir" Alex under center. They failed to score double digits only twice -- a "nobody gives a damn" game against the Colts in 2013 (the Chiefs were already locked into the five seed), and the one indefensible game of the "Sir" Alex era, at the Giants in 2017.
Which leads to the third statistical to be noted ...
* The Point Differential. The Chiefs have yet to post a negative point differential under "Fat" Andy. They have yet to post less than a plus seventy differential (which per the Pythagorean Theorem, is an expected nine plus wins, every season. The Chiefs have met their Pythagorean number, or exceeded it, every season so far under "Fat" Andy.)
One big reason for that point differential? Of course.
* The Consistency at Quarterback. "Sir" Alex Smith missed one game in five years due to injury (Week Nine 2016 vs Jaguars). Patrick Mahomes "of the Chiefs" has missed two games in two years due to injury (Weeks Eight and Nine 2019).
Just like the previous seven years were defined by constant turnover at the most important position, these seven years have been defined by no turnover at the most important position. Here is how the 119 starts (so far) break down by starter:
* "Sir" Alex Smith: 81 (includes five postseason starts).
* Patrick Mahomes "of the Chiefs": 33 (includes two postseason starts).
* Chase Daniel: 2.
* Matt Moore: 2.
* Nick Foles: 1.
And here are the starters' records in the last seven years:
* "Sir" Alex Smith: 51-30-0 (1-4-0 postseason).
* Patrick Mahomes "of the Chiefs": 25-8-0 (1-1-0 postseason).
* Chase Daniel: 1-1-0.
* Matt Moore: 1-1-0.
* Nick Foles: 1-0-0.
When your established starting quarterback(s) make 113 of 119 starts, and win two out of every three starts they make? Things are going to end well for you. And they have for the Chiefs.
As evidenced by ...
* The Postseason Appearances. The Chiefs have made the playoffs six of the seven seasons under "Fat" Andy, and were the first team out, the only season they missed (2014). Under "Fat" Andy, the Chiefs won their first playoff game in a generation (2015), their first home playoff game in a generation (2018), and hosted the AFC Title Game for the first time (2018). They will play at a minimum a fifth straight home playoff game (please ignore the 1-3 record in the prior four ... although the three losses are by nine total points, and one was in overtime), and are a nearly 75% favorite to reach the AFC Title Game for a second straight season. Considering the Chiefs have made two AFC Title Games in my lifetime -- and I turn 43 tomorrow -- that's one impressive run by Chiefs standards.
--------------------
No matter how this Mr. Harley dude wants to complain, b*tch and moan? (Which is his right to do, to be fair.)
What's his beef? That we don't suck anymore, since "Fat" Andy Reid came to town?
--------------------
Seven years ago, this franchise lay in utter and total (stewie griffin voice) roo-eens. About to hire a fourth head coach in seven years. About to employ a sixth offensive coordinator in seven years. A glaring hole at quarterback on the field, utterly senseless and deadly holes in players and loved ones of players, off the field.
Today, thanks to one "headline", the past is dead and buried so deep, we needn't fear a zombie attack from it. Thanks to one "headline", the Chiefs have gone from the doormat of the division, to the alpha male of the division. Thanks to one "headline", the Chiefs are positioned to dominate the decade in the AFC, much like the Philadelphia Eagles did for most of the previous decade in the NFC. (Seriously, five title games in eight years. That is insane.)
How awesome it is, that that "headline", is ours.
Enjoy the games everyone. And realize just how far we've come in seven years. Seven years ago, the Divisional Round was a crack pipe dream. Today? It's not enough.
All thanks to one "headline", seven years ago, (jimmy buffett voice) come Saturday.
There's only one correct answer, for the defining Chiefs moment of the decade.
The hiring of Andrew Walter Reid.
And anyone who argues otherwise, should probably seek help from a mental health professional. (Pause). What? (Pause). Well of course I can offer up some gifted professionals in the crazy field! I'm pretty sure I've laid on their couch a time or three in my life ...
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)