Thursday, January 2, 2020

what seven years can mean ...

"I got my old man's Delta 88;
The windows cracked, I'm on the interstate.
Just a hundred miles to go,
On half a tank of gasoline.
Lucky Charms and Tic Tacs --
And mom's amphetamines.

A hundred miles to go to Kansas City!
(January) kinda makes me crazy!
A hundred miles to go to Kansas City!
Will you still be calling me your baby?

I met a man in a diner outside of Hays.
He said marriage brought him there;
It was divorce that made him stay.
I drove straight through to Junction City;
I thought I'd call you in Topeka,
But I didn't want the pity.

A hundred miles to go to Kansas City!
Yeah, (January) makes me kinda crazy!
A hundred miles to go to Kansas City!
Will you still be calling me your baby?

It feels like I've been thrown into the slammer,
With the back end of a hammer
Drawn through my strings!
Living became needing;
And crying became bleeding.
And now?  I am only dreaming ...

A hundred miles to go to Kansas City!
(January) makes me kinda crazy!
Oh, a hundred miles to go to Kansas City!
Will you still be calling me your baby?

Will you still be calling me ..."

-- "Kansas City" by Melissa Etheridge.  Please, dear God, I don't ask you for much, but please, please, please, let her sing the National Anthem next Sunday.  Or lead us in The Chop.  Because good grief, if you'll let Tech N9ne serve as our "spiritual leader", certainly Melissa Etheridge is up to the task ... yeah, she's definitely up to the task ...

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Arrowhead Pride posted earlier this week what they thought were the most important headlines from the past decade of Chiefs football.

As you might imagine, I have my opinion as to what the most important "headline" -- or moment, if you will -- of this past decade of Chiefs football, was.

And no, it wasn't the Chiefs drafting Patrick Mahomes "of the Chiefs".

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Also, earlier this week, Arrowhead Pride played host to one of the dumbest, stupidest, mentally challenged fanposts I've ever read.  And given that I (at least sometimes) proof read these posts before they, uuh, post, trust me kids -- I've read some dumb, stupid, mentally challenged things before.

Here is a link to the post, in case you want to see what someone who should be required to walk around in a drool guard and a helmet at all times, thinks like.

The only thing I could think reading Mr. Harley's post -- other than the obvious -- is that this dude clearly has no idea why the hiring of "Fat" Andy Reid on January 4, 2013, was not only the single most important "headline" of the Chiefs decade ... but is without question -- (allard baird voice) without question! -- the second most important Chiefs "headline" of my lifetime, second only to the Chiefs hiring of former Philadelphia Stars general manager Carl Peterson, to oversee their football operation, on December 19, 1988.

So, let's clue Mr. Harley in, shall we, as to the State of the Franchise on my birthday, seven years ago ... versus the State of the Franchise on my birthday, seven years later ... with said birthday, being tomorrow.

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For those of you reading this who don't remember the stretch of Chiefs football between Richard A. Vermeil and "Fat" Andy Reid, let's begin with a refresher for you.

(And for those of you reading this who do remember the stretch of Chiefs football between Richard A. Vermeil and "Fat" Andy Reid, you might want to go pour yourself a very, very, very stiff drink.  It's cool.  I can wait.  In fact, I'm going to join you in pouring that stiff drink.  Reliving these seven years via doing the research of them, means I've more than earned it.)

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As I have noted before, there are lies, damned lies, and statisticals.  (Note: I am sure I stole that line from someone.  I'm not creative enough to come up with that one on my own.)

For the 2006 through 2012 Chiefs, the statisticals don't lie, damned or otherwise.  They're all true.  They're all brutal.  They're all awful.  In case you doubt me, here are the seven seasons that comprised those, uuh, seven seasons:


The meaningful statisticals that jump out at you (or at least to me) on first glance:

* Point Differential.  It's the most meaningful statistical in sports, dating back to when our good friend Hubie Brown, during his run as the head coach of the Kentucky Colonels * , first popularized the stat.  He noted forty years ago that if his team scored 100 points / game (while allowing 100), they'd go .500.  (Note: no sh*t, Sherlock).  But he also noted that if his team scored 105 points / game (while allowing 100), they'd win 50, and if he could up that total to 110 points / game (versus allowing 100), they'd win 60.

Look at the point differential for the Chiefs in these seven years.  Only twice was it positive -- in 2006 (by one point!) and 2010 (by seventeen points).

Which probably explains ...

* The Losing.  Five losing seasons, four of them featuring at least twelve losses.  A stretch from the bye in 2007 through Week Five 2009 that saw the Chiefs lose twelve straight, win once, lose seven straight, win once, then lose nine straight.  For those doing the math at home or in the second office, that's a 2-28 stretch.  Two.  And.  Twenty Eight.

Also, every season save 2010 saw at least one three game losing streak ... and every season save 2010 and 2006, saw at least a four game losing streak.

And yes, the Chiefs really did lose two out of every three games they played, in this five year stretch.

Probably because of ...

* The Utter Stench of Sh*t at the Quarterback Position.  The Chiefs played 114 games that count in these seven years (112 regular season, 2 postseason).  These are the quarterbacks who started those 114 games:

Matt Cassel: 48 (includes one postseason start).
Damon Huard: 21.
Tyler Thigpen: 11.
"Brokie" Croyle: 10.
Trent Green: 9 (includes one postseason start).
Brady Quinn: 8.
Tyler Palko: 4.
Kyle Orton: 3.

And those quarterbacks record in their games played:

Matt Cassel: 19-29-0 (0-1-0 postseason).
Damon Huard: 10-11-0.
Tyler Thigpen: 1-10-0.
"Brokie" Croyle: 0-10-0.
Trent Green: 4-5-0 (0-1-0 postseason).
Brady Quinn: 1-7-0.
Tyler Palko: 1-3-0.
Kyle Orton: 2-1-0.

When the only starter with a winning record, is the one who has played the fewest games, it's probably not going to end well for you.  It certainly didn't for the Chiefs.

Also playing a key role in that craptacular stretch of ineptitude?

* The Instability at Offensive Coordinator.  The Chiefs had five different offensive coordinators in the final five seasons of this stretch, and six in these seven years.  Forget how destabilizing having three head coaches in five years is; when your offensive playbook hits the reset button virtually every offseason?

I don't care who you have under center, it's not going to end well for you.  It certainly didn't for the Chiefs -- the only two times in these seven years when the Chiefs ranked in the top half of the league?  Were the only two playoff (and winning) seasons.

And even then, finishing 15th and 14th (out of 32) is not something to write home to your mommy about.  Let alone brag to your bros about.

And finally, the "statistical" that isn't there.

* Saturday, December 1, 2012.  Simply put -- and I would argue this really isn't, uuh, arguable -- simply put, the darkest day in Chiefs history.  The lowest moment in the history of the franchise.  The day when linebacker Jovan Belcher coldly and calculatingly killed his fiance (and mother of his child), before driving to Arrowhead and killing himself in front of Defensive Coordinator Gary Gibbs, Head Coach Baffoon, and General Manager Scott "Candy Wrapper" Pioli.

Just when you think things could not get worse -- remember, the 2012 Chiefs had led for less than twenty minutes in eleven games up to that point, they hadn't scored an offensive touchdown in over a month, and the fans who did show up (hey, that's me!) were wearing black and turning Arrowhead into a funeral parlor -- well, go figure.

Arrowhead did become a literal funeral parlor, on that tragic Saturday morning.

I went back and read my recap of that day and its' aftermath on Tuesday night, when I began typing this post.  (Note: to this day, it is still the most clicked / read post in this site's (now three decade posting!) history.)  And while some of it doesn't stand up seven years later (why did I ever give those two "friends" the benefit of the doubt), one thing in that post has definitely stood the test of time:


Exactly four weeks after I posted that, uuh, post, Coach Baffoon was relieved of his, uuh, coaching duties, following (go figure) four more losses to close out the worst season in franchise history, to close out arguably the worst seven year stretch in franchise history, to close out one sad, pathetic, miserable stretch of football, even by Chiefs standards.  And yes, I am fully aware the Chiefs once went fifteen years without coming within even a game, of a wild card berth, let alone a division championship.

Exactly five days after arriving at that decision?

Clark Hunt made the "headline" of the decade.

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(*: Wow, didn't expect to write that much before coming back to the * .  If you have never read "Loose Balls" by Terry Pluto, well, you should.  It's the greatest basketball book I've ever read -- it's a (mostly oral) history of the greatest basketball association ever formed, the original ABA.  Everything I -- and most of you -- enjoy about the game today?  Occurred because the owners of the ABA had the balls to try it.  Right down to the red, white, and blue ball that the NBA still uses as the "money ball" on All Star Saturday night -- an event that you're damned right, the ABA came up with, over forty years ago.)

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As you might expect, I had a reaction when Mr. Hunt made the "Headline O' The Decade" by hiring "Fat" Andy Reid.  As you might not expect, I was anything but happy about the hiring.  (Note: I have rarely -- if ever -- been more wrong about something, than I was about how I thought "Fat" Andy Reid's tenure here in Kansas City would go.)

But -- I think! -- I think I got one thing right, in that "boy, Stevo is a dumb f*ck idiot" post:


So ... which "Fat" Andy Reid did the Chiefs get?

I'm so glad you asked ...

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Because here are the statisticals from the (first) seven years of the "Fat" Andy Reid era, through last Sunday:


Sweet Jesus, what a difference competent coaching makes, huh?  There are five statisticals that stand out to me, at first glance, and let's begin with the Captain Oats in the room:

* The Winning.  The Chiefs have posted at least one five game winning streak, every season under "Fat" Andy.  Every.  Single.  Season.  And in six of the seven, they have posted at least a six game winning streak (all but 2014).

The Chiefs have won their opener six times out of seven (all but 2014 ** ).  They have opened 2-2 or better six out of seven seasons (all but 2015).  The last three seasons -- all ending in AFC West Division Championships -- the Chiefs have opened at least 4-0, all but burying the divisional competition before the season hits the quarter pole.

Oh, and the previous seven years, which saw the Chiefs lose two out of every three games they played?

The Chiefs have won two out of every three games, "Fat" Andy has coached.

(**: hey, remember when I did game recaps and tailgating highlights on this site?  Yeah, me neither.)

Of course, a key reason the Chiefs manage to go strokin' ... I mean, streakin' every season?

Well, duh ...

* The Scoring.  The previous seven seasons, the Chiefs averaged a little over seventeen points a game; under "Fat" Andy, they average -- average! -- almost twenty nine.  "Fat" Andy has literally given the Chiefs a two touchdown advantage, every game, over his three predecessors, combined!

And you say, "well, he has Patrick Mahomes", which is a valid argument ... but it's not like "Sir" Alex Smith was a bumbling idiot along the lines of "Brokie" Croyle or Tyler Palko.  The Chiefs were NEVER shut out -- not even once -- with "Sir" Alex under center.  They failed to score double digits only twice -- a "nobody gives a damn" game against the Colts in 2013 (the Chiefs were already locked into the five seed), and the one indefensible game of the "Sir" Alex era, at the Giants in 2017.

Which leads to the third statistical to be noted ...

* The Point Differential.  The Chiefs have yet to post a negative point differential under "Fat" Andy.  They have yet to post less than a plus seventy differential (which per the Pythagorean Theorem, is an expected nine plus wins, every season.  The Chiefs have met their Pythagorean number, or exceeded it, every season so far under "Fat" Andy.)

One big reason for that point differential?  Of course.

* The Consistency at Quarterback.  "Sir" Alex Smith missed one game in five years due to injury (Week Nine 2016 vs Jaguars).  Patrick Mahomes "of the Chiefs" has missed two games in two years due to injury (Weeks Eight and Nine 2019).

Just like the previous seven years were defined by constant turnover at the most important position, these seven years have been defined by no turnover at the most important position.  Here is how the 119 starts (so far) break down by starter:

* "Sir" Alex Smith: 81 (includes five postseason starts).
* Patrick Mahomes "of the Chiefs": 33 (includes two postseason starts).
* Chase Daniel: 2.
* Matt Moore: 2.
* Nick Foles: 1.

And here are the starters' records in the last seven years:

* "Sir" Alex Smith: 51-30-0 (1-4-0 postseason).
* Patrick Mahomes "of the Chiefs": 25-8-0 (1-1-0 postseason).
* Chase Daniel: 1-1-0.
* Matt Moore: 1-1-0.
* Nick Foles: 1-0-0.

When your established starting quarterback(s) make 113 of 119 starts, and win two out of every three starts they make?  Things are going to end well for you.  And they have for the Chiefs.

As evidenced by ...

* The Postseason Appearances.  The Chiefs have made the playoffs six of the seven seasons under "Fat" Andy, and were the first team out, the only season they missed (2014).  Under "Fat" Andy, the Chiefs won their first playoff game in a generation (2015), their first home playoff game in a generation (2018), and hosted the AFC Title Game for the first time (2018).  They will play at a minimum a fifth straight home playoff game (please ignore the 1-3 record in the prior four ... although the three losses are by nine total points, and one was in overtime), and are a nearly 75% favorite to reach the AFC Title Game for a second straight season.  Considering the Chiefs have made two AFC Title Games in my lifetime -- and I turn 43 tomorrow -- that's one impressive run by Chiefs standards.

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No matter how this Mr. Harley dude wants to complain, b*tch and moan?  (Which is his right to do, to be fair.)

What's his beef?  That we don't suck anymore, since "Fat" Andy Reid came to town?

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Seven years ago, this franchise lay in utter and total (stewie griffin voice) roo-eens.  About to hire a fourth head coach in seven years.  About to employ a sixth offensive coordinator in seven years.  A glaring hole at quarterback on the field, utterly senseless and deadly holes in players and loved ones of players, off the field.

Today, thanks to one "headline", the past is dead and buried so deep, we needn't fear a zombie attack from it.  Thanks to one "headline", the Chiefs have gone from the doormat of the division, to the alpha male of the division.  Thanks to one "headline", the Chiefs are positioned to dominate the decade in the AFC, much like the Philadelphia Eagles did for most of the previous decade in the NFC.  (Seriously, five title games in eight years.  That is insane.)

How awesome it is, that that "headline", is ours.

Enjoy the games everyone.  And realize just how far we've come in seven years.  Seven years ago, the Divisional Round was a crack pipe dream.  Today?  It's not enough.

All thanks to one "headline", seven years ago, (jimmy buffett voice) come Saturday.

There's only one correct answer, for the defining Chiefs moment of the decade.

The hiring of Andrew Walter Reid.

And anyone who argues otherwise, should probably seek help from a mental health professional.  (Pause).  What?  (Pause).  Well of course I can offer up some gifted professionals in the crazy field!  I'm pretty sure I've laid on their couch a time or three in my life ...

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