Thursday, November 26, 2020

week twelve picks

The Statisticals.

Last Week SU: 8-6-0.
Season to Date SU: 98-62-1.

Last Week ATS: 7-7-0.
Season to Date ATS: 75-80-6.

Last Week Upset / Week: rock bottom.
Season to Date Upset / Week SU: 3-10-0.
Season to Date Upset / Week ATS: 4-9-0.
This Week Upset / Week: Patriots (+2 1/2) over "Super" Cardinals.

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The Week Twelve Picks.

Bye: none.

Thanksgiving Day:

* at Lions (+3) 17, Texans 13.  Coach Baffoon vs Matt Patricia -- two turkeys not even God can pardon for their utter and total coaching incompetence.  Although Deshaun Watson against Matt Stafford is at least cranberry sauce good enough to tune in ... until KU and Gonzaga tips off around the eight minute to go mark in the first half.

* Redskins (+3) 24, at Cowboys 20.  A battle of two 3-7-0 teams in which the winner takes over first place!  Your NFC Least everyone!

Sunday:

* at Steelers (-4 1/2) 27, Ravens 17.  Hear me out on this: Lamar Jackson is this century's Kordell Stewart.  Everyone forgets Kordell led the Steelers to 12 wins and an AFC Title Game in 1997, garnering some MVP support.  Then he stumbled to .500 in 1998, and was benched by 2000.  The trajectory for Lamar is looking frighteningly similar.  Of course, the big difference between the two is that gun to his head, Kordell Stewart could throw the ball more than fifteen yards downfield.  Lamar can't.

* at Patriots (+2 1/2) 24, "Super" Cardinals 14.  I never bet against a proven veteran team, playing at home, with its' season on the line.  Which probably explains why I had a $30,000 plus gambling debt by the time I was in my mid 20s.

* at Vikings (-4) 31, Panthers 20.  See previous paragraph.

* Browns (-6 1/2) 41, at Jaguars 6.  I'm laying a touchdown ... on the Browns ... on the road.  God spare my bank account.

* at Bills (-5 1/2) 31, "Super" Chargers 13.  As my buddy Pickell would note: "put it this way" -- if the Bills cannot win this game, they're burnt toast without any jam come January.  Coming off a horrible beat, with the bye to recover and re-motivate, again -- if the Buffalo Bills lose this game?  Sh*t, they may not survive to see January beyond my 44th birthday, if they drop this one.

* Dolphins 13, at Jets (+7) 10.  The last six: vs Dolphins / vs raiders / at Seahawks / at Rams / vs Browns / at Patriots.  You find a win in there.  Because I'll be damned if I can.

* Giants (-5 1/2) 26, at Bengals 10.  I so freaking hate the injury to Joe Burrow.  Hopefully he's back healthy and productive in nine months.  The Chiefs play at the Bengals next year; that's a very doable (and already done) roadie.

* Titans (+3 1/2) 31, at Colts 28.  If you haven't or didn't see the Colts last "drive" in regulation last week, please, do yourself a favor and find a way to watch it.  Because the play by play doesn't do it justice.  The Colts were flagged for seven -- seven! -- flags, on a drive where all they had to do was bleed a couple minutes off the clock.  Six -- six! -- of those flags, were for offensive holding.  Anyone who thinks a team that can't execute six handoffs without six holding calls is going to be a factor in January, let alone get there?  Might need a mental health evaluation more than I do.

* raiders (-3) 34, at "Shane" Falcons 3.  The raiders may be the single biggest team standing between the Chiefs and a repeat championship come January.  And those are words I never imagined I'd type.

* at those people (+5) 24, Saints 14.  Setting up a last gasp next Sunday night at Arrowhead.  

* at Rams (-7) 31, 49ers 21.  And to think people laughed at me three months ago when I predicted the Rams to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl.

* at Packers 24, Bears (+8 1/2) 21.  This line is at least a couple points too high.  Bears / Packers is always a one score game, no matter how good or bad the other squad is.

Monday:

* Seahawks (-5 1/2) 34, at Eagles 10.  I know I never bet against proven veteran teams at home with their season on the line ... but I will, if it's obvious their season is already over.  To bastardize "The Voice of Reason": the Eagles Christmas goose is not only cooked, it's so burned it's unedible.

Chiefs:

First things first: the HomeGate this week will be at The Quaff downtown.  We've reserved the back party room, and the pizza and wings are covered.  All any guest has to cover is the cost of their booze.

(And yes, I know -- The Quaff and I are not friends.  We're not even frenemies.  Bad things tend to happen when I go to The Quaff.  I like to think though, that the changes made in my life, mean I won't have multiple waitresses, the bartender, and the owner shouting "you let him leave?!?!?!" -- followed by a frightened to the gates of hell itself "you let him drive?!?!?!" -- when I, uuh, leave, Sunday night.)

Anyways, if you can make it, show up anytime after 2:30 and we can accommodate ya.

As for the game itself?  

This one kind of reminds me of Chiefs at Cowboys 2005.  And that's not a good thing for either team, although it's really not a good thing for one team on Sunday.

I see the Bucs scoring with about thirty seconds left to go up three (just like the Cowboys fifteen years ago).  I see an incredible Chiefs catch to set the Chiefs up for an incredible tie from 45ish yards (just like the game fifteen years ago).  

And I see a miss, for a painful defeat.  (Just like fifteen years ago.  Trust me -- I was there.)

* at Bucs (+3) 38, Chiefs 35.

Sunday, November 22, 2020

week 11 bad guesses

The Statisticals.

Last Week SU: 11-3-0.
Season to Date SU: 90-56-1.

Last Week ATS: 6-6-2.
Season to Date ATS: 68-73-6.

Last Week Upset / Week: 1-2 both SU and ATS.
Season to Date Upset / Week SU: 3-9-0.
Season to Date Upset / Week ATS: 4-8-0.
This Week Upset / Week: Lions (+3) over Panthers.

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The Picks.

* Byes: 49ers, Bears, Bills, Giants.

* "Super" Cardinals (+3) 28, at Seahawks 24.
* at Saints 27, "Shane" Falcons (+5) 24.
* at Redskins (-1) 14, Bengals 10.
* Lions (+3) 31, at Panthers 20.
* Patriots (-2) 31, at Texans 27.
* at Browns (-3) 34, Eagles 14.
* Steelers 24, at Jaguars (+10) 21.
* Titans (+6) 24, at Ravens 14.
* at Colts (-2 1/2) 31, Packers 21.
* at "Super" Chargers (-8) 41, Jets 3.
* Dolphins 30, at those people (+3 1/2) 28.
* at Vikings (-7 1/2) 51, Cowboys 10.
* Rams (+3 1/2) 31, at Bucs 30.
* at raiders (+6 1/2) 38, Chiefs 35.

Thursday, November 12, 2020

week ten picks

The Statisticals.

Last Week SU: 7-7-0.
Season to Date SU: 79-53-1.

Last Week ATS: 4-10-0.
Season to Date ATS: 62-67-4.

Last Week Upset / Week: another disaster.
Season to Date Upset / Week SU: 2-7-0.
Season to Date Upset / Week ATS: 3-6-0.
This Week Upset / Week: remember in the good old days, when Chris Berman would be like 20-40 at midseason on his picks, so he'd just start increasing the number of games he picked to try to improve his record by cheating?  Consider this my attempt to do that, because I'm taking three 'dogs this week outright.  Titans (+1) over Colts -- Phyllis Rivers is done.  Giants (+3) over Eagles -- who doesn't want the winner of the NFC Least to finish at 5-10-1 or 5-11?  And Bears (+2 1/2) over Vikings -- Kirk Cousins is 0-9 on Monday Night Football, and I think that stink streak continues.  

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The Week Ten Picks.

Byes: Chiefs, Cowboys, Jets, "Shane" Falcons.

* at Titans (+1) 31, Colts 14.
* at Lions (-3 1/2) 24, Redskins 14.
* at Browns (-3) 27, Texans 21.
* at Packers (-13) 45, Jaguars 13.
* Giants (+3) 13, at Eagles 10.
* Bucs 27, at Panthers (+5 1/2) 24.
* at raiders (-4) 35, those people 27.
* at "Super" Cardinals (-2) 41, Bills 34.
* at Dolphins (-1) 31, "Super" Chargers 24.
* at Steelers 24, Bengals (+7 1/2) 23.
* at Rams (-1 1/2) 30, Seahawks 20.
* at Saints (-9) 34, 49ers 13.
* Ravens 34, at Patriots (-7) 31.
*at Bears (+2 1/2) 16, Vikings 9.

Thursday, November 5, 2020

quick week nine predictions

The Statisticals.

Last Week SU: 6-8-0.
Season to Date SU: 72-46-1.

Last Week ATS: 6-7-1.
Season to Date ATS: 58-57-4.

Last Week Upset / Week: not even close.
Season to Date Upset / Week SU: 2-6-0.
Season to Date Upset / Week ATS: 3-5-0.
This Week Upset / Week: those people (+4) over "Shane" Falcons.

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The Non-Chiefs Picks.

* Byes: Browns, Bengals, Eagles, Rams.

* at 49ers (+5 1/2) 24, Packers 14.
* Seahawks (-2 1/2) 31, at Bills 28.
* those people (+4) 31, at "Shane" Falcons 30.
* at Titans (-5 1/2) 27, Bears 14.
* at Vikings (-4) 31, Lions 13.
* at Colts (+2 1/2) 24, Ravens 23.
* Texans (-7) 31, at Jaguars 3.
* at Redskins (-3) 24, Giants 6.
* raiders (+1) 30, at "Super" Chargers 20.
* Steelers 24, at Cowboys (+14) 17.
* at "Super" Cardinals (-5) 26, Dolphins 17.
* at Buccaneers (-5) 38, Saints 24.
* Patriots (-7) 28, at Jets 0.

The Chiefs Prognostication.

This is the last Chiefs home game for a month, until those people roll into town for a Sunday Nighter to open December.  I will be there for that one; I'll even be in my section to watch it!  (Although not in my seat ... but close enough to see it!  So there's that!)

The Homegate is at Tommy's out in Lee's Summit; the menu is pulled pork and a true tailgate on his acre plus homestead.  The weather looks perfect for Sunday -- 75 and sunny with some wind to aid my god-awful ping pong ball tosses on the beer pong table.  If you can make it great; if you need directions just DM or email me on the links provided on this site.

As for the game itself, it's gonna be a laugher.

* at Chiefs (-10 1/2) 38, Panthers 13.

Tuesday, November 3, 2020

stevo's 2020 ballot

Every four years, this feels like an exercise in futility.

And every four years, I exercise in it anyway.

Tuesday, I will exercise the greatest right we have as Americans -- the right to vote -- and cast my ballot for who I believe should represent me at all levels of government for the next two to four years.  (As we have no national Senate race on the ballot here in Missouri, there is no six year term of governance to contemplate this time.)

I know some people consider the ballot box to be sacrosanct, to be private, to be between you and whoever or whatever.  I don't.  Below, I will lay out who I am voting for, and if it helps shape your vote, spectacular.  If it just makes you laugh, even better.  But no matter what, I hope you get off your ass Tuesday and vote for whoever or whatever you feel is best for this nation, if not for your own personal life.


To see my 2016 ballot -- proof that I said Mr. Trump would win when few if any others did -- you can click on this link.

To see my 2012 ballot, you can click on this link.

(Note: I could not find a 2008 ballot on this site.  I must have sent it by email, as this site had just begun when the 2008 Election was held.)

Here then, is Stevo's 2020 Ballot.

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President / Vice President: Donald Trump and Mike Pence (R).  I honestly prefer Joe Biden, and my despise of damned near anything Trump is fairly well known.  But in the end, there's three things that drove me to hold my nose, choke down a gallon of vomit, and vote to re-elect the President:

1. The childishness of the Left.  Do we really want these whiners who still cannot accept an election result from the previous decade in charge of the free world?  Because I sure as hell don't.

2. The health of Mr. Biden.  If he'd picked anyone other than Kamala Harris ...

3. Mr. Reagan's Question.  Are you better off today than you were four years ago?  I unquestionably am.  The President had some kind of a role to play in that for me, especially economically.

And for what it's worth, here is how I think the Electoral College map will look, when it is all said and done:


Governor: Nicole Galloway (D).  I'm sure Mike Parson is a decent dude and has our best interests at heart.  But he's also a god-awful governor that has accomplished nothing to be proud of in his two years of service.  Ms. Galloway is my choice and has my vote.

Lieutenant Governor: Alissia Canady (D).  A former Kansas City councilwoman, she did a solid job representing the East Side in her years on the job.  If you doubt me, take a drive around 31st and Troost, 31st and Prospect, hell the whole 31st Street Corridor.  You'd never recognize it from ten years ago.  Ms. Canady has earned the promotion to statewide office.

Secretary of State: Yinka Faleti (D).  Like the Carnahan's, the Ashcroft's just need to go away.  This brings us one step closer to the dream of an Ashcroft free state.

State Treasurer: Scott Fitzpatrick (R).  Only a fool votes to put the Democrats in charge of the Treasury.  And I say that as a registered Democrat.

Attorney General: Eric Schmitt (R).  He's done a good job in the office.  He deserves re-election.

US House of Representatives, District 5: Ryan Derks (R).  You could put a gun to my head, pull the trigger, then drag my dead non-pulsating hand towards the circle for "Carwash" Cleaver, and somehow, someway, my dead non-pulsating hand would revive long enough to thwart your plans for evil.  "Sleazy" Manny Cleaver is the worst thing to happen to Kansas City politics, possibly ever.  I will never cast a vote for that "Man of the Cloth", and I hope you won't either.

Missouri State Senator, District 7: Greg Razer (D).  Pretty much running unopposed; no Republican filed a challenge.

Missouri House of Representatives, District 25: Patty Lewis (D).  Is running unopposed.

Jackson County (MO) Prosecuting Attorney: Tracey Chappell (R).  Jean Peters Baker has failed miserably at her job, and worse yet, she's a partisan hack who has headed up the Jackson County Democrat Party for years.  It's time to put her out to pasture.  Especially for someone who would shake the DA's office up to its' foundation, as putting a Republican in charge of it would.

Jackson County (MO) Sheriff: Daryl Forte (D).  Is running unopposed.

Judges: vote to retain all.  They haven't done anything negative to my life in four years; I might as well return the favor.

Missouri Constitutional Amendment 1 (Term Limits): not just no, but f*ck no.  Why would any sane person want to term-limit out a success in office?  I've never understood that.  There's a reason why successful corporations don't have term limits; why should government have them?

Missouri Constitutional Amendment 3 (Lobby Reform): no.  This is the proverbial solution in search of a problem.

Jackson County Question 1 (911 Fee): yes.  This question probably should have passed ten years ago, if we're being honest here.  I haven't had a land line since sometime in early 2007.  It's insane I have contributed $0.00 towards our 911 service since that date.  (Although, thankfully, I have never had to utilize our 911 service, so I've gotten what I've paid for?)

Jackson County Question 2 (Statue Removal): no.  If you're triggered by a statue of a dude who's been dead for nearly two hundred years, perhaps the problem is not the statue.  Just sayin'.  And provides full symmetry to the ballot, because going back to the first vote cast -- who the hell wants to put someone in charge of this country, that can't muster the emotional maturity to walk past a statue?

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That's my ballot for this election.  Whatever else you do today, please making voting a priority, no matter who you cast your vote for.  

Thursday, October 29, 2020

week eight predictions

The Statisticals.

Last Week SU: 9-5-0.
Season to Date SU: 66-38-1.

Last Week ATS: 6-8-0.
Season to Date ATS: 52-50-3.

Last Week Upset / Week: Big Dick Nick, my Hairless White Ass.
Season to Date Upset / Week SU: 2-5-0.
Season to Date Upset / Week ATS: 3-4-0.
This Week Upset / Week: Lions (+2 1/2) over Colts.

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The Week Eight Non-Chiefs Predictions.

* Byes: 1-6-0 Texans, 1-6-0 Jaguars, 2-5-0 Redskins, 5-2-0 "Super" Cardinals.  If you had the Arizona "Super" Cardinals with more victories entering the Week Eight bye than the other three Week Eight bye teams combined, raise your hand.  (Pause).  What?  (Pause).  Hell no, my hand isn't raised!  Also, if you had the Redskins closer to first place (a half game) than the Texans (four and a half games) entering their Week Eight bye, raise your hand.  (Pause).  That's what I thought.

* at 3-4-0 Panthers (-1) 24, 1-6-0 "Shane" Falcons 14.  On the bright side, the next three Thursday nighters are really good -- Packers at 49ers, Colts at Titans, "Super" Cardinals at Seahawks.  You can stretch that to four if you count the Thanksgiving nighter (Ravens at Steelers).  One dud for four solids seems, uuh, solid to me.

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* at 3-3-0 Lions (+2 1/2) 30, 4-2-0 Colts 20.  The Lions next four?  At Vikings / vs Redskins / at Panthers / vs Texans (Thanks).  The Colts next four?  vs Ravens / at Titans (Thurs) / vs Packers / vs Titans.  One of these teams is a real threat for a wild card.  That team is not your Indianapolis Colts.

* at 5-1-0 Packers (-6 1/2) 41, 1-5-0 Vikings 3.  This line is at least a touchdown too low.  At least.

* 2-4-0 Patriots (+3 1/2) 24, at 5-2-0 Bills 20.  The last time the Patriots lost four straight?  Weeks Seven through Eleven (including a bye), 2000.  The last time the Bills opened 6-2-0 (or better)?  Shockingly enough, last year.  Which do you think will occur first again -- because barring a tie, one will on Sunday?  Yeah, I'm betting the Pats losing streak ends at three as well.

* 5-1-0 Titans (-6) 34, at 1-5-1 Bengals 27.  Could be a sneaky good game you'll want on the third TV, if only for fantasy football purposes.

* 3-3-0 raiders (+2 1/2) 34, at 5-2-0 Browns 31.  If the Browns win this one, they have no excuse -- none -- to not be 9-2-0 entering December.  Their next four weeks after this: bye / vs Texans / vs Eagles / at Jaguars.  And given the Browns still face the Giants and Jets in December, you can credibly argue they may for all intents and purposes clinch a playoff berth with a win Sunday.  In the words of Mary Lee Crosby: "that's incredible!"

* 5-2-0 Rams (-4) 31, at Dolphins 20.  And to think people openly mocked me for saying two months ago the Rams would win the NFC.  In the bastardized words of Steve Perry: "who's laughing now?"

* at 5-1-0 Ravens (-3 1/2) 27, 6-0-0 Steelers 20.  I'm not sold on this pick ... but the Steelers are three plays away from being .500 (those people 4th and Goal Week 2; Texans 4th and Goal Week 3; Gostkowski missed FG last week), while the Ravens have looked beatable for about three quarters this year, all against the Chiefs.  Really makes you wish NBC had used a flex for the second week in a row, because this week's Sunday Nighter might be the worst one since NBC picked the series up fifteen years ago.

* at 2-4-0 those people (+3) 20, 2-4-0 "Super" Chargers 10.  As far as I could research, those people have never opened 0-4 at home before.  They currently sit 0-3.  In any event, the loser of this game is probably drawing dead -- they'd likely have to close 7-2 or better to steal the seven seed, given the AFC Norris is likely sending three teams to the playoffs.  The winner isn't in much better shape, but at least gets the initial tiebreaker between the two squads.

* at 5-2-0 Bears (+4) 20, 4-2-0 Saints 17 (OT).  The Bears are still en route to a 10-6 finish that will see them open in Philly or Washington against a six win NFC East winner.  That should be utterly unwatchable.  

* at 5-1-0 Seahawks (-3) 34, 4-3-0 49ers 27.  Awesomely, best game of the day.

* at 2-4-1 Eagles 6, 2-5-0 Cowboys (+10) 0.  Pathetically, worst game of the day.

* 5-2-0 Buccaneers (-10) 45, at 1-6-0 Giants 3.  Sadly, not even the worst Monday Night game the Fake Meadowlands will host this month.

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The Chiefs Prognostication.

Nearly thirty years ago, a horrible AFC East squad arrived at Arrowhead as a two plus touchdown underdog.  I will grant you, 1992 is a long time ago.  To put into perspective how long ago that game was, it occurred during the transitional period from George H W Bush to Bill Clinton.

The game that day was cold and rainy.  I can assure you, it was not an optimal viewer experience.  (Few weather games suck more than cold and rain, especially in December, as this game was.)

But it isn't the cold and the rain, it isn't the shockingly close outcome (a 27-20 come from behind Chiefs victory) that causes me to remember that Chiefs / Patriots matchup from twenty eight Decembers ago.

No, it's one player, and specifically his words, that make that game memorable as "The Bill Mass Game".

When Mr. Maas, God love his Zarda BBQ pimping ass, noted "so long as we show up with our helmets on, we'll win" about the contest.

Sunday, the Chiefs once again will host a horrible AFC East squad, entering Arrowhead as a two plus touchdown underdog.  Thankfully, no one on the Chiefs roster is doing something as stupid as Bill Maas did nearly thirty years ago, and burying this god-awful opponent before kickoff.  In fact, the opposite is occurring -- the Chiefs are being mocked for portraying the Jets as a "good team" suffering some "bad luck".  

Let's hope this one not only ends with a "lesson learned" badge of honor when it comes to how to "respect" your opponent ... but that twenty eight years from now, we're referring to this one as the first "LeVeon Bell Game".

* at Chiefs (-19) 41, Jets 6.

Thursday, October 22, 2020

week seven predictions

sk: the rest coming later this week(end).  Consider this a placeholder to get the Thursday game prognosticated.

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The Statisticals.

Last Week SU: 7-7-0.
Season to Date SU: 57-33-1.

Last Week ATS: 8-5-1.
Season to Date ATS: 46-42-3.

Last Week Upset / Week: solid cover.
Season to Date Upset / Week SU: 2-4-0.
Season to Date Upset / Week ATS: 3-3-0.
This Week Upset / Week: Bears (+5 1/2) over Rams.

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The Week Seven Non-Chiefs Picks.

* Byes: Vikings, Dolphins, Colts, Ravens.  There's at least one playoff team in this grouping of non-competitors this week.  (Pause).  Put your hand down, Indianapolis -- it ain't you ...

* at Eagles 23, Giants (-4) 20.  I can't wait for our good friend, Ol' Pete King, I can't wait for his head to explode when 6-9-1 Philadelphia hosts 11-5-0 Chicago or Green Bay to open the playoffs.  There's a lot of things I disagree with that dude over, few of which I disagree with him more, than the idea a division champ should have to travel to play a wild card team.  I don't care if the division champ is ten games worse than the wild card team -- winning your division should matter a hell of a lot more, than finishing second, third, or fourth, in your division.  On this, I know I'm right.

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* at Redskins (+1) 20, Cowboys 13.  How far this once great rivalry has fallen.

* Bills (-10) 34, at Jets 3.  Somehow this line has dropped three points in three days.  That's inconceivable to me.

* at Texans (+3) 34, Packers 30.  It's Houston's last stand.  And for some idiotic reason, I rarely if ever bet against a proven veteran team at home, with its' season on the line.

* at Browns (-3 1/2) 31, Bengals 20.  I'm old enough to remember when "The Battle for Ohio" was good for a prime time game every year.  (Think Boomer vs Bernie.)  We're about two years away from that being a reality again.  If not one.

* Lions (+1) 38, at "Shane" Falcons 20.  The third wild card means this game still has some significance for both teams.  The loser is almost assuredly done.

* at Saints 24, Panthers (+6 1/2) 20.  I actually think Carolina is going to win outright; I'm just too chicken sh*t cowardly this week to pick it.

* at Titans (-1) 31, Steelers 21.  Another three point shift since I wrote the lines down Thursday.  This one makes total sense.  The better team is now favored.

* at raiders (+4) 28, Buccaneers 20.  I wish this one hadn't been flexed.  I was really looking forward to this as the night cap.  Now we don't even get to see it in KC.  Damned virus.

* at "Super" Chargers (-7 1/2) 31, Jaguars 20.  A battle of two one win squads, one of which has overachieved its' way to this point, the other of which has underachieved yet again.  I swear, Anthony Lynn must have pics of Dean Spanos in kiddie clown porn to justify still being employed at this point.

* at Patriots (-3) 17, 49ers 10.  The last time these two faced off in Foxboro was the game Colin Kaepernick arrived, sparking the 49ers to an upset.  Can Jimmy G do the same?  (Hint: hell no.)

* at "Super" Cardinals (+3) 31, Seahawks 24.  Gonna be a long night for the remote, between this and Rays / Dodgers Game Five.

* Bears (+5 1/2) 30, at Rams 20.  They just win folks.  They just win.

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* Chiefs 31, at those people (+7 1/2) 28.  This one will be far closer than most people think.  If those people win this one, I think they're playoff bound.  (Their next four: vs "Super" Chargers, at "Shane" Falcons, at raiders, vs Dolphins).  The Chiefs three trips to fake mile high under the leadership of Patrick Mahomes "Of The Chiefs" have all been memorable -- Mr. Mahomes first career start, "The Left Handed Pass", and last year, the moment we all fear the season was over in Week Seven on a fourth and one sneak.  I don't claim to know what this year's game turner will be, but biasedly, I hope it involved Le'Veon Bell.

Oh, in case anyone cares, the Homegating Plans are leftover Lock Loins from last night, plus three or four types of nachos (pulled pork, beef, chicken) over at the Second Parents.  

And I think that's it.  It's pushing 11am, and I still have to make my contribution for today.  Sh*t, I still have to go buy my contributions for today.  Enjoy the games y'all ...

Sunday, October 18, 2020

half assed week six picks

 My quarter end for work ends Tuesday.  I'm hopeful that means this is the last one of these that is less than its' usual jovial and jocular self.  Because just reading picks with little to no commentary is just not that entertaining.

(To say nothing of not mocking Kaptain Klassy, aka Ol' Kietz, aka Sin de Pantalones.)

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The Statisticals.

Last Week SU: 11-3-0.
Season to Date SU: 50-26-1.

Last Week ATS: 8-6-0.
Season to Date ATS: 38-37-2.

Last Week Upset / Week: finally!
Season to Date Upset / Week SU: 2-3-0.
Season to Date Upset / Week ATS: 2-3-0.
This Week Upset / Week: Eagles (+10) over Ravens.

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The Week Six Predictions.

Byes: 3-2-0 raiders, 1-4-0 "Super" Chargers, 3-2-0 Saints, 5-0-0 Seahawks.

Oh, and by the way, since I forgot to mention this earlier this season, after what seems like decades of using USA Today's Danny Sullivan as this site's official oddsmaker, I've decided to move on to CBS Sportsline to deliver the official odds used when making these picks.  This site has a friend known as "Reputable National Sports Columnist" that writes for the site; it only makes sense to throw that conglomo a bone once a week.

* 4-1-0 Bears (+1 1/2) 20, at 3-2-0 Panthers 14.  Raise your hand if you thought this one might have postseason ramifications six weeks ago.

* 1-3-0 Lions (-3) 27, at 1-4-0 Jaguars 17.  I know I'm dating myself here ... but god damn, do I miss Rasputin.  If the great Wayne Fontes was still on the Lions sideline, they'd win this game by twenty, at least.

* 1-4-0 at Vikings (-3) 41, 0-5-0 "Shane" Falcons 3.  I actually think Raheem Morris is a decent coach.  Then again, I named this site's predecessor after Herm Edwards, I so believed in that guy, so what the hell do I know.

* 1-4-0 Texans (+3 1/2) 34, at 4-0-0 Titans 20.  I know, I know -- the first rule of football gambling should be "never, ever, under any circumstance, in any situation, bet on a team coached by Coach Baffoon".  We've lived the Romeo Crennel Experience here in Kansas City.  But sometimes, you gotta break the rules.  Especially when the opponent isn't as good as its' record, and is playing for the second time in five days.

* 1-4-0 Redskins (+1) 3, 0-5-0 Giants 0.  I'm old enough to remember when these two teams represented the NFC in the Super Bowl four out of six years (1986-1991).  I'm old enough to remember when this was the Game O' the Year in the NFC.  I'm also old enough to remember when Sir Alex Smith's leg snapped in two, and nobody thought he'd play again.  Seriously, I wasn't crying when he came in last week, you were ...

* at 4-0-0 Steelers (-3) 27, 4-1-0 Browns 20.  This game won't be as close as the score; the Steelers get up big early and the Browns score a garbage time score or two.

* at 1-3-1 Eagles (+10) 27, 4-1-0 Ravens 24.  The Eagles are not this bad; the Ravens are not this good.  I like the Eagles outright.

* at 3-2-0 Colts 20, 1-3-1 Bengals (+7 1/2) 19.  We get this game here in KC at noon, and I'm strangely looking forward to it.  I want to see a broken down Phyllis Rivers (not) cursing in frustration that he's the one responsible for how awful Indy's offense is.  And I really want to see Joe Burrow, because this kid is gonna be something special if Cincy can fix their offensive line issues in free agency and the draft this offseason.

* at 2-2-0 Patriots (-7 1/2) 34, 1-3-0 those people 14.  This is not the "come to Jesus" game for those people.  That one is next week.  Those people's schedule after these next two weeks is extremely manageable the rest of the way.  Hell, I had them opening 0-5 and missing the playoffs on tiebreakers, that's how soft the last ten for them are.  Also, this line has dropped 3 1/2 points in four days.  What the hell did those people do to suddenly become a field goal better than they were on Monday?  Here's to hoping this bad boy falls to 6 1/2 or lower by kickoff Sunday.

* at 2-3-0 Dolphins (+8 1/2) 17, 0-5-0 Jets 0.  If there is a hell, this game has to be playing on all of its' television screens.

* at 3-2-0 Buccaneers (+1) 38, 4-0-0 Packers 31.  This is about the only thing that sucks about the NFL: you never get cross-conference matchups like Brady / Rodgers was.  MLB you go at most three years between a star coming to town.  NBA and NHL, you play every team at least once at home every full season.  NFL?  If said star is in the other conference, you get them at home once every eight years, and if injury is involved * , you may never get to see a superstar matchup, especially at QB1.

(*: the odds we will ever see Mahomes vs Rodgers at Arrowhead are virtually non-existent; Mr. Mahomes was out for last year's matchup, and Green Bay doesn't return to Arrowhead until 2027.)

* at 2-3-0 49ers (+3) 30, 4-1-0 Rams 20.  The 49ers need this one desperately.  They'll find a way.

* at 2-3-0 Cowboys (+1) 27, 3-2-0 "Super" Cardinals 17.  I ask this with a straight face, and with the knowledge Andy Dalton is now Dallas' QB1: how the f*ck is Arizona favored?

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The Homegating Plans.

We are taking the "show on the road" ... sort of.  This week's HomeGate will be at the Daily Double in Raytown.  If you've never been to everyone's favorite "lounge", it's a throwback to the way bars used to be, right down to still allowing smoking indoors.

The menu is potluck.  Bring whatever you'd like to contribute to the food.  Drinks you'll have to buy, but in case you've never been to DD before, trust me -- it's cheaper to drink there, than it is to drink at home.  I know that sounds ridiculous, but it's true.

And plus, as a side note, all monies raised via people "tipping" for food, as well as buying drinks, is going to a worthy charitable cause; neither our tailgating group (which will be supplying all food), nor Bruce and Kathy (who own the Double) will be keeping a cent raised via your purchases.  The monies will be going to a good friend of ours who is not only battling a recurrence of cancer himself, but his "lady friend" is fighting it as well.

Feel free to come out and join us.  63rd and Woodson, far southeast corner next to the Dollar General.  We hope to have The Bus set up out front with tailgating games and assorted places to sit and enjoy the day, weather permitting.  The fun should begin sometime after lunch -- 2ish or so.

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The Chiefs Prognostication.

* at 4-1-0 Bills (+5 1/2) 34, 4-1-0 Chiefs 27.  This line is patently absurd.  Bills win on a last minute touchdown drive.

Thursday, October 8, 2020

continued half assed week five picks

The Statisticals.

Last Week SU: 8-7-0.
Season to Date SU: 39-23-1.

Last Week ATS: 6-8-1.
Season to Date ATS: 30-31-2.

Last Week Upset / Week: no bueno.
Season to Date Upset / Week SU: 1-3-0.
Season to Date Upset / Week ATS: 1-3-0.
This Week Upset / Week: Browns (+2 1/2) over Colts.

The Week Five Picks.

Byes: Lions, Packers.

* at Bears (+3 1/2) 24, Bucs 20.  
* at Titans (NL) 31, Bills 24.
* Panthers (+1) 20, at "Shane" Falcons 3.
* Rams 24, at Redskins (+7 1/2) 21.
* at Texans (-5 1/2) 31, Jaguars 20.
* "Super" Cardinals (+7) 41, at Jets 0.
* Eagles (+7) 20, at Steelers 17.
* at Ravens 31, Bengals (+12) 21.
* at 49ers 27, Dolphins (+9) 20.
* at Patriots 14, those people (+11) 6.
* at Cowboys (-9) 38, Giants 13.
* at Browns (+1 1/2) 34, Colts 17.
* at Seahawks (-7) 34, Vikings 13.
* at Saints 24, "Super" Chargers (+7 1/2) 21.

The Tailgating and Watching Party Plans.

If its raiders week, that means it's raider ribs.  We'll be on my Second Parents back patio for this one.  Anyone and everyone is welcome to attend.  The forecast here in KC is pushing 80 degrees and bright and sunny at kickoff.  Believe me -- nobody is angrier I'm missing my first raider game home game since 1998, than me.  

The Chiefs Prognostication and Prediction.

I wish I had more, but in addition to the Chiefs game this weekend, I have a funeral to attend Saturday morning, I have a semi-surprise 60th birthday party for a family friend to attend Saturday night, my bowling league teammates are (finally?) getting married in a destination wedding this weekend * ... and I'm quarter end at my current job.  Ain't we lucky we got 'em?  Good Times!

But hey, on the bright side, the Chiefs are 4-0 for the fourth straight season, the last time the Chiefs were below .500 was Week Eleven 2015, the Chiefs have won twelve of fourteen against the raiders since "Fat" Andy showed up eight years ago, and again -- it's going to be in the mid 80s and sunny here in Kansas City in mid October.  Life is good today.  Life is good today!

(*: I had to laugh that I was notified of this on Tuesday, and invited to said wedding ... in San Antonio, this weekend, under the "we know you never turn down a chance to go to Texas!" corollary that is absolutely 100% true ... when you give me more than a couple day's notice.  Oh who am I kidding -- if I didn't have plans already on Saturday I can't in good conscience get out of (the funeral), I'd be on my way there right now.)

As for the pick, (pickell voice) let me put it this way: the Chiefs played about the sh*ttiest game they've played since "Sir" Alex Smith was seeing the 2017 season implode around him ... and still kicked the Patriots ass.  You really think Derek Carr is ready for this?

* at Chiefs (-12) 41, raiders 21.

Thursday, October 1, 2020

really half assed week four picks

I'll figure out The Statisticals next week.

The Week Four Picks:

* at Jets (-1) 3, those people 0.
* at Bears (+2 1/2) 24, Colts 20.
* at Lions (+4) 27, Saints 17.
* "Super" Cardinals (-3 1/2) 31, at Panthers 14.
* at Bengals (-3) 27, Jaguars 17.
* at Cowboys (-4 1/2) 31, Browns 20.
* at Texans (-4) 35, Vikings 24.
* Seahawks 31, at Dolphins (+6 1/2) 28.
* at Buccaneers (-7) 45, "Super" Chargers 3.
* Ravens 14, at Redskins (+13) 10.
* at Rams (-13) 41, Giants 10.
* at raiders (+3) 31, Bills 20.  Upset O' The Week.
* Eagles (-7) 20, at 49ers 14.
* at Packers (-7 1/2) 31, "Shane" Falcons 3.
* at Chiefs (-7) 34, Patriots 14.

Tuesday, September 29, 2020

stevo's mlb playoff picks

Twenty five years ago, I had to be drug kicking and screaming into the Wild Card era for baseball.  

As a kid, I loved what separated Major League Baseball from every other sport: no room for second place.  Either you won your division, or you sat at home in October and watched the playoffs from your couch, like us fans did.

But somewhere along the way, my resistance to the Wild Card completely evaporated.  Which is probably a good thing, because this year, not only do every second place squad get in, four third place teams are in as well.  We've got a sixteen game playoff tournament, just like the NBA and NHL (and give the NFL another year or two -- now that they've moved from twelve to fourteen playoff teams, it's only a matter of when they'll expand to sixteen playoff teams as well).

The playoffs start today.  Here then are my picks:


In the Wild Card Round, I can see six of the eight series going either way.  I think Tampa is a near lock to advance, and I see no way the Brew Crew can upset the Dodgers.  (That one actually would be a bigger upset than UMBC over Virginia three years ago in the NCAA Tournament.)  

I picked the Yankees over the Indians because I think they're the better overall team, and opening with Gerret Cole won't suck for Yankees fans.  (Especially in a best of three -- grab the quick 1-0 lead and then you can pick and play with how you try to close it out on the mound.)  I'm not as sold on the Twins as most -- I've long argued there is no worse opponent to face in any sport than a proven, veteran team with its' back to the wall, which is the (astro the dog voice) Rastros predicament -- but the Rastros couldn't even manage to go .500.  Not a good sign.  And I love the White Sox against the A's -- honestly, this is the second most anticipated Wild Card series for me.  Two great young teams loaded with talent going at it.  And you don't have to stay up to midnight to enjoy this one -- both Game One and Game Two are scheduled for an afternoon first pitch!

In the senior circuit, I like the Marlins to upset the Cubs (another team that, like the Rastros, is on its' last gasp), and I really love this Reds team.  Cincy / Atlanta is gonna be one hell of a three game series that I like the Reds to pull out.  But the NL series I am most anticipating is the Cardinals and Padres.  You can credibly argue the Padres are the second best team in the sport (note: they aren't ... but they're close), but has any team faced more adversity to get to the postseason than our "good friends" three hours east of Kansas City?  I'm taking the Padres but man, I can see the Cardinals eeking this one out in three.

In the Divisional Round (which are all best of five), I like the Yankees to outlast the Rays.  I know the Rays went 8-2 against the Yankees this year, but two of those wins were extra inning walk offs, and two other games were decided by one run.  A break here, a break there, and things are intriguingly different, which I think is what will happen here.  Yankees in four.  I also like the White Sox in five over the Twins, although I'm not sure it's really the upset a 7 over 3 represents.

In the National League, Dodgers / Padres might be one of those "whoever wins this is winning it all" matchups you see a lot in other leagues, but rarely in baseball.  This one is going the distance, and in the end, I think the Dodgers pitching is too much.  Dodgers in five.  I also think the Reds pitching is way too much for the Marlins to combat.  Reds in three.

In the Championship Series, Yankees / White Sox would be really fun.  I mean, really fun.  My good buddy Sir Thomas will be sweating bullets in this one.  But in the end, I'll take the Yankees in six.  They're the best team in the American League.  That fact will show through by the time late October arrives.  And in the National League, Reds / Dodgers would be a fascinating matchup.  The Reds are far better than their record indicates; the Dodgers consistently post the best record in the sport, but haven't won a World Series since Tommy Lasorda was pimping Weight Watchers and Kirk Gibson was limping around the bases.  I really wanted to pick the Reds here ... but I can't.  Dodgers in seven.

Giving us a World Series matchup that should have any fan of the sport drooling with anticipation.  Dodgers / Yankees.  East Coast / West Coast.  Kershaw v Cole at least twice, and possibly three times.  Two epic franchises, two rock solid teams, giving us hopefully a matchup worthy of the hype.  I'll take the Yankees in seven, meaning I'm taking the Yankees to win it all.

Enjoy the games everyone!

Thursday, September 24, 2020

three quartered ass week three predictions

The Statisticals.

* Last Week SU: 14-2-0.
* Season to Date SU: 23-9-0.

* Last Week ATS: 6-10-0.
* Season to Date ATS: 15-18-1.

* Last Week Upset / Week: yikes.
* Season to Date Upset / Week SU: 0-2-0.
* Season to Date Upset / Week ATS: 0-2-0.
* This Week Upset / Week: Bears (+3 1/2) over "Shane" Falcons.

The Non-Chiefs Predictions.

Let's rank the games this week, from 15 (most unwatchable) to 1 (most watchable).  (Note: in case the section head didn't clue you in, the Chiefs get their own pick section, hence only 15 games to rank.)  

And to accomplish this ... yeah, we gotta.  It's been a while.  Those of you familiar with these picks, know how these rankings are going to work.  Might as well try to give you the $0.00 in content you come here to read once a week, at least once this month.

Because, after all ...

* "Good Times Game O' The Week": at Colts (-10 1/2) 41, Jets 13.  Ain't we lucky we got 'em?  (Na na na na na!)  Good Times!!!!!!!!!

For those unfamiliar with the Sh*-Sit-Com Ranking System from years past, the worst games on the board would be designated the (insert god awful 70s /80s sh*t-sit-com here) Game O' The Week, because any person with an IQ above room temperature would rather watch three straight hours of this "classic" sitcom, than watch even one second of this NFL offering.

(The joke, of course, being that I actually like most of these sitcoms, especially "Good Times" at the beginning, and especially "Benson" at the ending.  But whatever.  They're all sh*t-sit-com-tacular!)

Get ready America -- the Jets are in prime time next week.  At (likely) 0-3.  Against another (likely) 0-3 team.  On a short week to boot.  Jesus.  What did I ever do to deserve this?

* "ALF Game O' The Week": 49ers (-5) 27, at Giants 3.  It is truly sad how far this once epic rivalry has fallen.

* "Empty Nest Game O' The Week": at Browns (-7) 31, Redskins 20.  Not even friends, family, and paid to attend media want a part of this action.

* "Webster Game O' The Week": at Jaguars (-3) 27, Dolphins 20.  This actually is one of the toughest games on the board to prognosticate.  Seriously.  These are two fairly evenly matched teams.  If (when?) Miami loses this one, they have to start thinking it's Tua Time.  And no, I didn't say Tuna (rimshot!).

* "Too Close For Comfort Game O' The Week": at "Super" Chargers 20, Panthers (+7 1/2) 14.  Speaking of too close for comfort, Tyrod Taylor and a physician's needle everyone (rimshot!).  (Pause).  What, too soon?

In all seriousness, this site wishes Mr. Taylor all the best.  Because we saw Justin Herbert last Sunday.  And he ain't Herbert the Pervert from "Family Guy", that's for sure.  Get back on the field soon, Tyrod!  We miss you taking your team out of contention before kickoff!

* "Mama's Family Game O' The Week": Bears (+3 1/2) 24, at "Shane" Falcons 14.  We're about two more losses from the lights going out in Dan Quinn's employment status, let alone the state of Georgia.

* "Blossom Game O' The Week": at "Super" Cardinals (-6) 35, Lions 20.  The Arizona "Super" Cardinals are about to go to 3-0, with the Panthers (at home) and Jets (on the road) up next.  We are living in a world where it is highly probable the Arizona "Super" Cardinals will be 5-0 going to Dallas in a month for their Monday Nighter against the Cowboys.

There's only one word to accurately describe that.

"Whoa!"

* "The Facts of Life Game O' The Week": at Eagles (-6 1/2) 31, Bengals 20.  You take the good!  You take the bad!  You take them both?  And then you have?

This sh*tshow.  Be it the sitcom, or the game this Sunday. 

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Note: we are now at the midpoint; every game left (seven in this section, plus the Chiefs / Ravens) I would give up three plus hours to watch every minute of.  Every game before this?  I'd opt for three plus hours of the sitcom designation.  Still, in fairness -- giving us 50% quality on-field play (or at least off-field hype) in Week Three is not bad.  Especially given every uncertainty that went into this season simply getting underway.

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* "Gimme A Break Game O' The Week": Rams (+2 1/2) 24, at Bills 21.  If there were 70,000 Bills Mafia in the stands, I'd probably wager differently.  But at an empty Ralph, in late September (pre-awful weather), I'll take the SoCal kids to not crack the stadium floor.  I mean, if Nell Carter managed to avoid doing that for six years, surely the Rams can for six hours, right?  

* "Night Court Game O' The Week": Texans (+3 1/2) 26, at Steelers 17.  The fact this line is less than four means way too many gamblers agree with me, that Houston is really underrated (or the Steelers are really overrated, or both) coming into this one.  The Texans are not 0-2 bad -- facing the Chiefs and Ravens tends to do that to you.  The Steelers are not 2-0 good -- facing the Giants and those people tends to do that to you.  If there's a God, somehow Markie Post either sings the Anthem or tosses the coin.  Ms. Post has to be involved in this contest somehow.  Because we all need some Markie Post in our lives.

* "Designing Women Game O' The Week": Titans (-2 1/2) 28, at Vikings 17.  What?  Derrick Henry has a lil' Julia "I Don't Take Sh*t From Nobody" Sugarbaker in him!  

* "Diff'rent Strokes Game O' The Week": at those people (+6) 20, Buccaneers 19.  There is not one sane, sensible reason for this pick.  

Other than this:


And this:


And this:


Provided mentally challenged those people head coach vic fangio doesn't f*ck up his timeouts again, I'll take the home team with its' back to the wall, against the road team starting a quarterback my age, a mile high above sea level.

Hey.  Diff'rent Strokes for Diff'rent Folks.

* "Small Wonder Game O' The Week": at Seahawks (-5) 41, Cowboys 13.  The Cowboys would be 0-2 if anyone other than Dan Quinn or vic fangio coached the "Shane" Falcons.  And quite frankly, I think even vic fangio is smart enough to coach his players to touch an onside kick when it's right in front of you.  The Seahawks pounded Dan Quinn's "Shane" Falcons, and survived the Patriots by showing the common sense to know a last-play attempt to tie at the two would put the ball in Cam Newton's hands.

This one smells like a game that spirals out of control early, and really spirals out of control late.

* "Amen Game O' The Week": at Saints 21, Packers (+3 1/2) 20.  Drew Brees is not washed up, nor is he showing its' age.  The raiders defense simply showed its' talent.

* "Benson Game O' The Week": at Patriots 31, raiders (+6 1/2) 28.  I believe I severely underrated the raiders this season.  (I have them going 8-8, albeit controlling their own destiny entering the finale at fake mile high.)  I also believe I underrated the Patriots this season.  (I have them going 9-7, winning the AFC East, then getting destroyed yet again in the Wild Card game.)  This, on paper, is going to be one wildly entertaining contest.  Thank you, KCTV-5, for carrying this one.

And yes, complimenting -- let alone thanking -- Channel 5 for anything related to Chiefs coverage, is something I never imagined I'd do again in my lifetime.

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The "Klassy" Kevin Kietzman Tweet O' The Week.

Admit it, life just isn't the same without my weekly (coach don fambrough voice) throwdown, hoedown, showdown, takedown of Senor No Los Pantalones.

In case you all missed it, Ol' Kietz has gotten back into broadcasting following his long overdue kick to the curb by Union Broadcasting last summer.  He has a podcast up called -- and no folks, this is not a joke -- a podcast up called "Kevin Kietzman Has Issues".

I mean, talk about setting up the (rimshot!)!  That would be the equivalent of me launching a podcast called "Stevo Is An Alcoholic".  I believe that would simply be called "stating the obvious".

Anyway, it's actually a pretty good podcast, considering the author, and I encourage you to give it a shot, especially the episode where Kaptain Klassy lays out his side of his, uuh, layoff.

And for this week, that's it.  Let's all be thankful "K"KK is back, and do our part to help him keep spewing out the inept, incompetent, "these make no sense whatsoever!" takes that defined Klueless Kev's thirty plus years on Kansas City's television and radio airwaves.

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The Tailgating AND Watching Party Plans.

So here's the thing.  For those of you who don't know me ... count your blessings!  Nah, I kid.  For those of you who don't know me, I am a twenty plus year Chiefs season ticket holder (with the lovely hat from last season to prove it!), and believe me when I say, there were few games I ever anticipated more in my life, than that opener against Houston a couple weeks ago.

I anticipated a fun day of tailgating on a lovely 90 degree early September afternoon, a solid fifteen minute cry / section area hug when the Championship Flag was raised, and a thoroughly enjoyable 41-14 beatdown of the overmatched Texans, witnessed from my beloved seat in Section 132, Row 26, Seat 14.

I got none of that.  For starters it was barely 50 and rained all day here in Kansas City on September 10th.  Secondly, the Texans were feisty enough to make the game "entertaining" for most of the evening.  And finally, the closest I came to my seat on September 10th was when I went straight through (pick one) the intersection of 63rd and Blue Ridge Cutoff, or the intersection of 63rd and Raytown Trafficway, on the way to my Second Parents house.

Because COVID 19, coupled with numerous other bullsh*t, has (stewie griffin voice) roo-eened the in-person experience for myself, most (if not all) of my tailgating group and other season ticket holding friends, and no doubt a lot of you, for this 2020 season.

I finished paying the Chiefs for my seat on June 15th.  I allowed the Chiefs to roll forward, per their "agreement" with us Season Ticket Members, all monies paid for my seat to the 2021 season, thus requiring me to re-buy a seat I've already paid for, at approximately 400% more than I already paid to sit there.

And to that I say ... I'm OK with it.  

Because while spending a Lazy Sunday floating poolside with friends, family, friends that are family, and a few random dudes and dudettes who showed up, we hit upon our plan for the 2020 NFL Season.

Screw paying the Chiefs, the NFL, and anyone else a 400% markup on seats we've already bought and paid for.

We'll HomeGate the entire season.

And rotate it, amongst our tailgate friends, family, friends that are family, and random one-offs who show up just for the f*ck of it.

Which is what we began, two weeks ago, against the Texans.  And to be fair, the "HomeGate" sucked, not because of any fault of ours, but because it was 50 and raining.  Who in their right mind wants to be outside playing Beer Pong or Washers or Cornhole in the rain?  (And spare me the "use the garage!" rebuttal.  You've never seen my Second Parents' Garage.  They can't even fit a car in there, it's so packed in.)  But the food was good, we made (dave matthews band voice) the best of what's around, and most importantly, got to spend time with our local tailgating folks while enjoying a Chiefs win.

Which is what we did again Sunday, up at Tom and Laurie's.  The menu for the opener was "Watson's Whataburgers", or as most of you would refer to them as, Sloppy Joe's.  The menu for Sunday was Charger Chicken; you don't f*ck with the "Core Three" tailgating menus.  (Those being Charger Chicken, raider ribs, and bronco burgers.)

This Monday, we'll be at Gus' for the HomeGate.  The menu as of now is pulled pork and sides, plus whatever liquid refreshment you desire.  Weather permitting, we'll be outside.  As always, anyone and everyone is welcome to join in; just DM me if you need directions.

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The Chiefs Prognostication.

Well this sucks.

For the record, I should be typing this either on a plane headed to Baltimore, or from a hotel room somewhere along the Baltimore waterfront.  This was one of three Chiefs road games I had planned to attend in person this season -- with a fourth trip to our "good friends" who allegedly play a mile high above sea level always on the table.

(The other two would have been a nice half month vacation in December -- fly to South Florida for the Dolphins game, spend a week headed along the Gulf coast, slowly yet steadily, until arriving in New Orleans for the Saints game, before heading home via Dallas for a few days to get home for Christmas.  Damn you, COVID 19!  God d*mn you to the eighth layer of hell!  (Or, as that layer is known on this site: fake mile high stadium.))

Yeah, this sucks.  I mean, (brantley gilbert voice) back in the day, when Mr. Reason / Jasson / bts and I (or some combination of us) went on road trips, the big deal was the pregame meal the night before the game.  We were all in our 20s, all but Jasson amongst us had no family or kid commitments, and we tried to do it up right.  Always picked a classy, high dollar restaurant ... and of course, showed up trashy in Chiefs jersey, zubaz pants or shady blue jeans (or in my case, khakis that had seen better days -- I don't wear jeans), that on most Saturday or Sunday nights would have gotten us kicked out of the joint ... only there were so many other Chiefs fans there with the same idea, the restaurant had to let us in.

To this day, it's a tradition I try to maintain.  Any road trip to Houston means Willie G's the night before the game.  Any roadie to Dallas requires some Uncle Julio's.  (Which may not be the classiest Mexican joint in the Metroplex ... but it's the best.)  There's an awesome fish market called Mitchell's just across from the stadium in Cincinnati.  St. Elmo's in Indy.  Giordano's in Chicago.

I was so looking forward to some same day oysters on the shell, with some fresh crab cakes, or a clam bake, coupled with a couple bottles of insanely overpriced Pinot Grigio on Sunday night.  I was looking forward to spending Saturday in our nation's Capital, a place I haven't been to since pre-9/11.  I was looking forward to seeing the Inner Harbor, possibly catching a game at Camden Yards (I believe the Orioles were supposed to close their 2020 season at home under the initial 2020 MLB schedule), see the home of Edgar Allan Poe (not to be confused with David Allan Coe).  So many plans to cram into so little time, and none of it going to happen.

All due to a virus noone on planet Earth had heard of one year ago today, let alone nine months ago today.

As John Lennon once famously wrote and sang: "life is what happens to you, when you're busy making other plans".

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So ... having gotten that rant out of the way, let me note why there was no "The Flashback" this week.

Because the obvious flashback is Week Four, 2004.  And that frankly, is a period of time I have no desire to relive.

That Monday Nighter was the last game of my Chiefs fandom as I knew it.  And even now, sixteen years later, it's amazing to realize not just all that was lost the next day, but all from that actual GameDay Night experience itself, that is probably gone forever as well.

There is nothing positive to be drawn out from "The Flashback" this week, so I pretty much chose to skip it.

If you know me?

You'll get it.

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But I do have to make a pick for this game.

For the record, this season I am 2-0 SU picking the Chiefs, and 0-2 ATS picking the Chiefs.  I thought the Texans would put up a better fight; I thought the Chargers would be beaten like the proverbial government mule Good Ol' JR was always talking when he broadcasted WWE's Monday Night Raw.

The line as I wrote it down Tuesday night was Ravens -3.  I don't expect it to move much, if at all, so I'm not going to relook it up again.  I'll stick with -3.  Which is about perfect.  (Although anyone who thinks the Ravens would cover three at a legitimate Arrowhead, is certifiably insane.)

The Chiefs have lost the last three roadies I've attended, and five of the last six, over the last three seasons.  (The only W being the Monday Nighter against those people in 2018 -- or as the figurine dangling from my rear view mirror forces you to remember, the "Left Handed Pass Game".)  Sh*t, I was in attendance the last time the Chiefs lost a game anywhere -- in Nashville last November.

Would the losing skid of me attending road games have ended Monday Night?  We'll never know.  But I know how I would have bet ... and it's why I'm betting this.

* "Perfect Strangers Game O' The Week": Chiefs (+3) 30, at Ravens 24.

Monday, September 21, 2020

half assed nfl season predictions

Alright, let's finally get these posted.

Most years, this is a drawn out, 8-10 post piece with some reason, rhyme, and rhythm to it.  This year, it isn't.  I'm just gonna post the schedule runs, then post my, uuh, postseason picks, and then we'll move on, because let's face it, these bad boys are three weeks overdue, and with the way life is working for me right now, if I wait any longer, these may never go up.

Also, as much proof as I can offer, that this schedule run was done before the season began, and has remained unchanged since:


Here we go.

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NFC East.


* Projected Champion: Philadelphia Eagles.

* Other Projected Playoff Teams: Dallas Cowboys.

* Preseason Teams Power Ranking Positions: 

3. Philadelphia Eagles.
9. Dallas Cowboys.
28. New York Giants.
32. Washington Redskins.

* Coaches Power Ranking Positions:

8. Doug Pederson, Eagles.
18. Mike McCarthy, Cowboys.
19. "Riverboat" Ron Rivera, Redskins.
31. Joe Judge "Judy", Giants.

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NFC Norris.


* Projected Champion: Green Bay Packers.

* Other Projected Playoff Teams: none.

* Preseason Teams Power Ranking Positions: 

10. Green Bay Packers.
17. Minnesota Vikings.
23. Chicago Bears.
26. Detroit Lions.

* Coaches Power Ranking Positions:

11. Matt LaFleur, Packers.
14. Mike Zimmer, Vikings.
16. Matt Nagy, Bears.
26. Matt Patricia, Lions.

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NFC South.


* Projected Champion: Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

* Other Projected Playoff Teams: none.

* Preseason Teams Power Ranking Positions:

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
14. New Orleans Saints.
20. Atlanta "Shane" Falcons.
29. Carolina Panthers.

* Coaches Power Ranking Positions:

10. Sean Payton, New Orleans Saints.
17. Bruce Arians, Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
22. Dan Quinn, Atlanta "Shane" Falcons.
30. Matt Rhule, Carolina Panthers.

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NFC West.


* Projected Champion: Seattle Seahawks.

* Other Projected Playoff Teams: San Francisco 49ers, Los Angeles Rams.

* Preseason Teams Power Ranking Positions:

6. San Francisco 49ers.
11. Los Angeles Rams.
12. Seattle Seahawks.
19. Arizona "Super" Cardinals.

* Coaches Power Ranking Positions:

5. Pete Carroll, Seattle Seahawks.
13. Sean McVay, Los Angeles Rams.
15. Kyle Shanahan, San Francisco 49ers.
23. Kliff Kingsbury, Arizona "Super" Cardinals.

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NFC Postseason.

Playoff Seeding:

* 1. 11-5 NFC East Champion Philadelphia Eagles (tiebreaker over Tampa Bay Buccaneers via Conference Record).

* 2. 11-5 NFC South Champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

* 3. 10-6 NFC West Champion Seattle Seahawks (tiebreaker over San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams via Conference Record).

* 4. 9-7 NFC Norris Champion Green Bay Packers (tiebreaker over Chicago Bears via Conference Record).

* 5. 10-6 San Francisco 49ers (tiebreaker over Los Angeles Rams via Strength of Victory).

* 6. 10-6 Los Angeles Rams.

* 7. 9-7 Dallas Cowboys (tiebreaker over New Orleans Saints via Record Amongst Common Opponents, tiebreaker over Chicago Bears via Conference Record).

Non Playoff Teams:

* 9-7 New Orleans Saints.
* 9-7 Chicago Bears.
* 8-8 Minnesota Vikings.
* 8-8 Detroit Lions.
* 8-8 Arizona "Super" Cardinals.
* 4-12 Washington Redskins.
* 4-12 Carolina Panthers.
* 4-12 Atlanta "Shane" Falcons.
* 3-13 New York Giants.

The Games:

* 6 Rams 31, at 3 Seahawks 14 (Sat 1/9, 3:30pm CT, FOX).
* 7 Cowboys 38, at 2 Buccaneers 31 (Sat 1/9, 7pm CT, ESPN / ABC).
* 5 49ers 30, at 4 Packers 20 (Sun 1/10, 7pm CT, NBC).

* 7 Cowboys 31, at 1 Eagles 21 (Sat 1/16, 7pm CT, FOX).
* 6 Rams 34, at 5 49ers 27 (Sun 1/17, 3:30pm CT, FOX).

* 7 Cowboys 21, at 6 Rams 34 (Sunday 1/24, 2pm CT, FOX).

NFC Champion: 6 Los Angeles Rams.

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AFC East.


* Projected Champion: New England Patriots.

* Other Projected Playoff Teams: none.

* Preseason Teams Power Ranking Positions:

8. New England Patriots.
15. Buffalo Bills.
22. New York Jets.
24. Miami Dolphins.

* Coaches Power Ranking Positions:

2. Bill Belichick, New England Patriots.
7. Sean McDermott, Buffalo Bills.
20. Brian Flores, Miami Dolphins.
29. Adam Gase, New York Jets.

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AFC Norris.


* Projected Champion: Pittsburgh Steelers.

* Other Projected Playoff Teams: Baltimore Ravens, Cleveland Browns.

* Preseason Teams Power Ranking Positions:

2. Baltimore Ravens.
7. Pittsburgh Steelers.
27. Cleveland Browns.
30. Cincinnati Bengals.

* Coaches Power Ranking Positions:

4. John Harbaugh, Baltimore Ravens.
6. Omar Epps Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh Steelers.
27. Zac Taylor, Cincinnati Bengals.
32. Kevin Stefanski, Cleveland Browns.

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AFC South.


* Projected Champion: Houston Texans.

* Other Projected Playoff Teams: Tennessee Titans.

* Preseason Teams Power Ranking Positions:

5. Tennessee Titans.
13. Houston Texans.
21. Indianapolis Colts.
31. Jacksonville Jaguars.

* Coaches Power Ranking Positions:

3. Bill O'Brien, Houston Texans.
9. Mike Vrabel, Tennessee Titans.
12. Frank Reich, Indianapolis Colts.
28. Doug Marrone, Jacksonville Jaguars.

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AFC West.


* Projected Champion: Kansas City Chiefs.

* Other Projected Playoff Teams: none.

* Preseason Teams Power Ranking Positions:

1. Kansas City Chiefs.
16. las vegas raiders.
18. those people.
25. Los Angeles "Super" Chargers.

* Coaches Power Ranking Positions:

1. "Fat" Andy Reid, Kansas City Chiefs.
21. jon gruden, las vegas raiders.
24. Anthony Lynn, Los Angeles "Super" Chargers.
25. vic fangio, those people.

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AFC Postseason.

Playoff Seeding:

* 1. 11-5 AFC West Champion Kansas City Chiefs.

* 2. 10-6 AFC Norris Champion Pittsburgh Steelers (tiebreaker over Baltimore Ravens via Record Amongst Common Opponents).

* 3. 9-7 AFC South Champion Houston Texans (tiebreaker over Tennessee Titans via Divisional Record, tiebreaker over New England Patriots via H2H Victory Week 11).

* 4. 9-7 AFC East Champion New England Patriots.

* 5. 10-6 Baltimore Ravens.

* 6. 9-7 Tennessee Titans (tiebreaker over Cleveland Browns and those people via 2-0 H2H record).

* 7. 9-7 Cleveland Browns (tiebreaker over those people via Conference Record).

Non Playoff Teams:

* 9-7 those people.
* 8-8 Buffalo Bills.
* 8-8 New York Jets.
* 8-8 Cincinnati Bengals.
* 8-8 Indianapolis Colts.
* 8-8 las vegas raiders.
* 7-9 Miami Dolphins.
* 4-12 Los Angeles "Super" Chargers.
* 2-14 Jacksonville Jaguars.

The Games:

* 6 Titans 20, at 3 Texans (Sat 1/9, noon CT, NBC).
* 7 Browns 6, at 2 Steelers 31 (Sun 1/10, noon CT, CBS).
* 5 Ravens 17, at 4 Patriots 20 (Sun 1/10, 3:30pm CT, ESPN / ABC).

* 3 Texans 24, at 2 Steelers 20 (Sat 1/16, 3:30pm CT, CBS).
* 4 Patriots 17, at 1 Chiefs 38 (Sun 1/17, noon CT, NBC).

* 3 Texans 24, at 1 Chiefs 41 (Sunday 1/24, 5:40pm CT, CBS).

AFC Champion: 1 Kansas City Chiefs.

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Super Bowl LV.

* 6 Los Angeles Rams 20, 1 Kansas City Chiefs 45.

Super Bowl Champion: Kansas City Chiefs.

week twelve picks

The Statisticals. Last Week SU: 8-6-0. Season to Date SU: 98-62-1. Last Week ATS: 7-7-0. Season to Date ATS: 75-80-6. Last Week Upset / ...