the week one "fling it and see what sticks" guesses

(cue “snf theme song voice) HIT IT!!!  No, really – HIT IT!!!!!

“Midnight, getting uptight, where are you?

You said you’d meet me, now it’s a quarter to two,

I know I’m hanging, but I’m still wanting you …

Hey Jack, it’s a fact, they’re talking in town.

I turn my back, and you’re messing around.

I’m not really jealous – don’t like looking like a clown.

I think of you every night and day –

You took my heart, and you took my pride

Away … way … way … way … way …

I hate myself for loving you!

Can’t break free from the things that you do!

I wanna walk, but I run back to you!

That’s why I hate myself for loving you!!!”

-- Joan Jett and the Blackhawks, “Hate Myself for Loving You” … and oh hell yes, this is on the finalized Mixology 2012 playlist for Sunday …

-------------------------------

Wow, is it really time for the return of the worst prognosticator walking the planet?  It is?  Sweet!

* Season to Date SU: 0-1-0.

* Season to Date ATS: 0-1-0.

* "Screw You Pete King" Upset of the Week: man.  The artist formerly known as simply "Upset of the Week", this segment was renamed prior to week eight last season, in honor of our good buddy, Ol' Pete King of Sports Illustrated, for his blatant bias against the Chiefs, and for his beloved San Diego "Super" Chargers.  (And yes, I am fully aware I picked the Chargers to win this year's Lombardi Trophy.  Hypocrisy: alive and well on this site!)

Anyways, tough call this week.  There's five underdogs I'm picking to win outright ... (cue everyone voice) Oh no.  Please, Stevo, you SUCK at picking games!  Please, do NOT pick the Chiefs as your Upset of the Week!  Calm down people, I'm not taking the Chiefs as the week's biggest stunner.  Instead, I'm going with my sleeper NFC team, in a huge game for them early.  I say the Greg Schiano era gets off to a raucous start, and I'll take the Bucs +1 1/2 to beat the Panthers at the Pirate Ship.

* The Non-Chiefs Predictions:

at Giants (-3 1/2) 28, Cowboys 17.  Should be a relatively comfortable win for the Giants to open their title defense.  Giants have won 8 of the last 10 against Dallas outright, in case if you're looking for a trend to bet on tonight.

at Bears (-11) 34, Colts 10.  There are some really good games / to get the season off right / This game however / Is not (clap!) Dy-No-Mite!!!  Yup, this one is your "Good Times Game of the Week", so named because this matchup is so unappealing, so unwatchable, that any person with an IQ above room temperature would rather watch a "Good Times" marathon than tune in for even 2/1000ths of a second of this game.

at Vikings (-3 1/2) 14, Jaguars 10.  Wow, this one is pretty awful too.  If there is an eighth layer of hell, I guarantee you this game is on the television down there, as a form of very cruel and unusual punishment.

at Jets 21, Bills (+2) 20.  How in the hell are the Jets a favorite?  Seriously?  That's ridiculous, and I say that as a Jets fan.  This team stinks.  Would not surprise me at all if the Bills win outright.

at Texans (-13) 31, Dolphins 3.  You know the Joe Philbin era is off to a great start when the team quits on him in training camp.  Good grief.  Seriously, what is it that leads seemingly competent front office executives to hire abject morons as their head coach?  And in case you doubt that Joe Philbin is a dolt, watch an episode of "Hard Knocks" from this season.  Trust me -- he's incompetent.

at Titans (+5) 27, Patriots 21.  If this game was being played in Foxboro, I'd probably pick the Patriots by two touchdowns.  This one just smells funny.  Titans at home, improving rapidly, chance to make an early statement game against a legitimate Super Bowl threat. 

at Lions (-7 1/2) 45, Rams 17.  Not sure they can make this line high enough.  Should be a "take the shirt off, prop the feet up on the chair in front of you, and work on the tan" game by the second quarter.  If, you know, the Lions played outdoors and you could work on said tan.  Which they don't.

at Saints 31, Redskins (+8) 28.  I am completely clueless on this game.  Have no idea what to expect from the Saints.  Also have no clue what to expect from the 'Skins. 

Eagles (-9) 41, at Browns 3.  And I'm being generous in suggesting the Browns might get off a successful field goal attempt.

49ers (+5) 31, at Packers 20.  Total gut feeling pick.  I'm not sold on Green Bay at all. 

Seahawks (-2 1/2) 27, at Cardinals 13.  This line actually opened Arizona -1.  Then I think the oddsmakers realized it's the Arizona Cardinals, not the St. Louis Cardinals, taking the field on Sunday, and adjusted accordingly.

at Bucs (+1 1/2) 30, Panthers 27.  Awesome, awesome matchup, and thank you FOX for cramming this into the late afternoon stand-alone spot!  Especially since the odds of the US Open final actually being played on Sunday are now slim and none, and slim is being carted off the court with rain-induced injuries.

at broncos (-1 1/2) 34, Steelers 24.  A very intriguing matchup to open the season for both teams.  Seriously, was it really just eight months ago this was one of the funnest playoff games I've ever watched?  So much can change in so short a period of time, I guess.

at Ravens (-6) 17, Bengals 10.  Check out the Bengals opening six: at Ravens / vs Browns / at Redskins / at Jaguars / vs Dolphins / at Browns.  If they could spring the upset Monday night, they're set up to be 6-0 when the Steelers come calling for the week seven Sunday Night Football contest.  Also, it would behoove the Bengals to not squander this stretch, because here's their December: at Chargers / vs Cowboys / at Eagles / at Steelers / vs Ravens.  Yikes.

Chargers (pick) 24, at raiders 3.  Earplug Alert!  Chris Berman is handling the play-by-play for this contest.  I'd suggest finding out which station is your local Westwood One affiliate and listen to Marv and Boomer on the call instead.

* The Chiefs Prognostication

(Note: I was all prepared to go into full-on preacher mode ... only, Governor Granholm was SO DAMNED AWESOME last night at the DNC, I can't possibly match her.  Seriously, click the link for five minutes of AWESOME.  I wish I was HALF as dynamic as she is when giving a "fire up the base" speech.  I'm telling you, if Obama / Biden was running against the incumbent, I'd be the biggest backer they'd have, that's how epic the DNC was.  Unfortunately for the President, he does have a record, and it sucks balls.  Which is why I'm voting for Romney / Ryan.

And now ... the prepared statement for the first game of the season.)

I've been going to Chiefs games for nearly as long as I can remember ... and I can only recall two visits by the Atlanta Falcons in that time.

I know we opened the season against them in 1991, a 14-3 defensive struggle that is best remembered as the game that was the last non-sellout until 2009.  And then again in 2004, when the Chiefs laid the beating of a generation on the Falcons, winning 56-10 in a game* that wasn't even that close.

(*: two things stand out about this game.  (1) The Chiefs scored 8 rushing touchdowns -- Priest had four, Derrick Blaylock had four.  And (2) this game is without question the drunkest I have ever been at a sporting event, and I am aware I survived Double Header Day I, Double Header Day II, and the (until this year) annual "Celebrate the Ounces" blowout.  This game might actually be the drunkest I've ever been in my life, that's how far gone I was by 9am.)

I don't expect Sunday's game to be similar to either outcome.

I don't see any scenario in which a defensive struggle breaks out.  The Chiefs are too beat up to hold a potent Falcons team to 14 points.  No Tamba Hali, no Kendrick Lewis, potentially no Brandon Flowers -- all adds up to Atlanta getting at least 24, if not into the low 30s.

Conversely, I don't see either team winning a blowout in which you spend the entire second half kicked back in your seat, working on the tan.  (Although, it is gonna be in the mid 80s and sunny on Sunday, and wouldn't you know it, my seat is in the sun all day.  So God, if you're reading this?  A nice 38-10 drubbing of the Dirty Birds -- note I said OF, not BY -- would be greatly appreciated.)

I think this is gonna be an offensive explosion.  Both teams are loaded on the offensive side of the ball.  Think about this: the Chiefs can go FIVE WIDE with Dwayne Bowe, Jon Baldwin, Steve Breaston, Kevin Boss, and Tony Moeaki.  Uum, if you're Falcons defensive coordinator Mike Nolan, and GOD I pray he shows up in the suit and tie, if you're Mike Nolan, who do you focus on?  What part of the field do you send the cover 2 safety to support?  How may backs do you have to drop into coverage because you don't have the secondary to cover that wide of an attack?

Conversely, look at what the Falcons are throwing out there -- Julio Jones, Roddy White, and Tony Gonzalez, against a severely depleted Chiefs secondary, and a diminished pass rush due to Tamba Hali's suspension.

You want to run the football?  Swell!  Two of the best backs in the league will be on the field Sunday, Jamaal Charles in his return for the Chiefs, Michael Turner for the Falcons. 

I am really looking forward to this game.  This is going to be a genius chess match between two of the brighest defensive minds in the league*.  I can't wait to watch it unfold.

(*: the Chiefs have a coach this year named Jim Bob Cooter!  No, seriously, Jim Bob Cooter!  How did I not know about this?  This is even funnier than the Royals rolling Rusty Kuntz out there every night.  Jim Bob Cooter!  I'm guessing he's not from Arkansas or Mississippi.  Hang on, I have to find this out.  (stevo google searching ...) well, I was close.  He hails from Tennessee.  The Confederacy: the gift that never stops giving!)

Here's where the traditional details come in.  If you're coming to the game on Sunday, feel free to join in with us.  We'll arrive at our usual bat time, and park in our usual bat station.  We're keeping it simple: burgers, brats, dogs, and assorted side items.  The beer will be cold, my vodka concoction will be strong, the sun will be shining, and (little kids voice) the wheels on the bus will go round and round, as the Bus will be there ready for it's 15th season of tailgating!  My God, has it really been fifteen years?  Where the hell did the time go?

The Chiefs can absolutely win this game.  Yes, we're underdogs, but we're playing at home.  So do your part.  Show up early.  Be loud.  Be VERY loud!!!  We CAN win this game!  Aggravate any Falcons fans who happen to be there (but as always, don't go beyond verbal taunting).  Have some fun, get some sun, and let's get a win!

at Chiefs (+2 1/2) 34, Falcons 27.  And as we walk out up the ramp of Gate H, as the fans are screaming the Tomahawk Chop, pounding the columns, pounding the signs, celebrating the start of what I think is going to be an incredible season of football, be prepared to get a simple three word text message from me.  And smile when you get it.

Season.  F*cking.  ON!

2012's most anticipated post part x (the end!): the afc postseason

* The AFC Final Field:

1. 13-3 Baltimore Ravens (win tiebreaker with Patriots via head-to-head victory)

2. 13-3 New England Patriots (best remaining record amongst division champions)

3. 11-5 Kansas City Chiefs (best remaining record amongst division champions)

4. 10-6 Tennessee Titans (best remaining record amongst division champions)

5. 10-6 San Diego “Super Chargers” (win tiebreaker with broncos via conference record)

6. 10-6 denver broncos (best remaining record)

7. 9-7 Buffalo Bills (best remaining record)

8. 8-8 Jacksonville Jaguars (win tiebreaker with Jets via head-to-head victory)

9. 8-8 New York Jets (best remaining record)

10. 7-9 Houston Texans (win tiebreaker with Steelers via conference record)

11. 7-9 Pittsburgh Steelers (best remaining record)

12. 6-10 oakland raiders (best remaining record)

13. 5-11 Cincinnati Bengals (best remaining record)

14. 3-13 Miami Dolphins (best remaining record)

15. 2-14 Cleveland Browns (win tiebreaker with Colts via head-to-head win)

16. 2-14 Indianapolis Colts (only remaining team)

* The Wildcard Round

Mixology 2012 Song to Describe Said Round: “Daydream Believer” by the Monkees.  Sorry if I already used this one, but consider what I project Wildcard 2012 to be: Philly vs Dallas (epic grudge match).  The Battle of the Bay of Pigs, in the words of the late, great Pete Axthelm (Green at Tampa).  A throwaway game to start Saturday on NBC (San Diego at Tennessee … which still will be entertaining).  And God willing in the late Sunday slot? 

A matchup I’ve waited fifteen fucking (unedited) years to exact revenge for.  A postseason showdown that’s happened exactly one time in history, on my 21^st birthday.  A game that to this day, I get nightmares about.  A game that I still have the damned rally towel for, because I know that someday, our shot at avenging the injustice of January 1998 will present itself, and I want a relic from that abortion of a moment to be there to cleanse its soul of the stink of that day.

Revenge is a dish best served with a long, steel dagger struck deep into the spine.  Or ideally, the neck, of our arch-rival’s quarterback …

(5) Chargers 34, at (4) Titans 13.  I really like this Chargers team.  In a big way.  In a “they’re a legitimate Lombardi Trophy threat” kind of way.  A tune up before one EPIC matchup in either Foxboro or Baltimore the next week.

(6) broncos 21, at (3) Chiefs 24.  This one?  Would be all levels of exercising a demon for me.  The Chiefs are 0 for peyton in the playoffs.  They’re 0 for denver in the playoffs.  They’re 0 for anyone in the playoffs since I was a junior in high school, and here’s a hint – I’d be 36 when this game would occur.  (Admit it, you just read that and thought “my God, how is someone who looks this damned amazing going to be 36 in four months?  Oh, you didn’t think that?  Well, you SHOULD have thought that.)

It’s time, Chiefs fans, to buy into what this organization is selling.  We’ve waited 19 years for a playoff win.  Why CAN’T 2012 be the year the futility ends?  Our “good buddy”, Ol’ Pete King, who has written exactly seventeen positive words about the Chiefs in the last twenty years, projects us to win the AFC West and win a wildcard game.  Our good buddy Hub Arkesh, publisher of Pro Football Weekly, has the Chiefs not only winning the AFC West, he has us winning the whole damned conference!  This isn’t delusional Stevo making these picks – these are (allegedly) reputable, respected NFL experts!

* The Divisional Round.

Mixology 2012 Song to Describe Said Round: “Don’t Stop Believin’” by Journey.  Two rising AFC West teams looking to achieve their break through.  Two powerhouse east coast AFC teams facing their potential last gasp at greatness.  Old guard vs new blood.  In the words of AJ to Tony and Carm at the table at Holstens as this song hit its crescendo: “remember the good times, right?”

(5) Chargers 34, at (1) Ravens 24.  Love this matchup for San Diego.  Rivers can throw all day against a weak-at-best Ravens secondary.  The one true strength on defense San Diego has is stopping the run.  Chargers emerge with an “easier than expected” victory.

(3) Chiefs 24, at (2) Patriots 14.  If they played ten times, the Patriots would probably win nine.  But not this day.  Not this time.  For as great of a player and champion as they are, Brady and Belichick have crapped out at home quite extensively the last few years – wildcard loss to the Ravens in 2009, humiliating demolishing by the Jets in Foxboro in the divisional round in 2010, and they should have lost to the Ravens in the AFC Title Game last year (Ravens dropped a touchdown inside the final minute, then shanked the game winning field goal from 28 yards out as time expired).  The Chiefs keep it rolling, setting up a day I have waited a lifetime for …

* The Conference Championship

Mixology 2012 Song to Describe Said Round: “The Time Of My Life” by David Cook.  If I’m gonna be this biased and completely ridiculous in my predictions, I might as well go all out. 

(5) Chargers 31, at Chiefs (3) 21.  I can’t do it.  God knows I want to … but San Diego’s the better team.  The Chargers are simply too talented to let their window close without at least one Hunt Trophy, and I fear this is the year they do it.  Even at my team’s expense.

AFC Champions: Your San Diego “Super” Chargers.

Super Bowl Prediction: Chargers over Bucs.

Super Bowl Champions: come on, sing it, you know you want to:

“We’re coming your way!

We’re gonna dazzle you with our play!

The time has come

You know we’re shooting for number one!

The thunder bolts and lightning

Will light up the sky!

We’ll give it all we got and more

With the Super Chargers try!

San Diego Super Chargers!

San Diego!  (Chargers!)

San Diego Super Chargers!

San Diego … Chargers! Charge!”

2012's most anticipate post part ix: the afc west

And finally, returning to its rightful position as the flagship division of football, at least on the AFC side of the bracket, is the loaded AFC West …

(Please click picture below for full Excel schedule breakdown):

* Final Order of Finish:

1. Kansas City Chiefs

2. San Diego “Super” Chargers

3. denver broncos

4. oakland raiders

* First Read: I’ve been saying since March that the AFC West was sending three to the playoffs.  Well lookie here Mabel – I have the AFC West sending three to playoffs!  Including one wildcard round matchup that, uum, yeah.  We’ll get to that in the final posting of 2012’s most anticipated post.

* Biggest Game: Chiefs at raiders, week 15.  The game that gave KC separation from denver and San Diego.  And before you accuse me of bias – first, hell yes I’m biased!  You spend nearly $1,000 / year to watch a team?  You develop a bias!  Second, even our “good buddy”, Ol’ Pete King at Sports Illustrated, has the Chiefs winning the AFC West (and a playoff game to boot!)  And third, the Chiefs have won 9 of 10 in oakland, and the only loss was on a once-in-a-lifetime overtime catch by jacoby ford two years ago.

* Seems wacky: the ONLY thing that came out differently than I anticipated … is that entering these picks, I thought the order would be SD / KC / den.  Chiefs and Chargers wound up flipped.  If you want to make an argument it should be SD then KC, I won’t oppose that argument. 

* Division (Home) Uniform Rankings:

1. San Diego “Super” Chargers (baby blue unis)

2. oakland raiders

3. Kansas City Chiefs

4. denver broncos

Reason: there isn’t a cooler looking uniform in sports than the baby blues the Chargers haul out for their prime time / national TV window games.  And while I love the Chiefs red and gold … there’s just something mythical about the silver and black.  denver’s uniforms are atrocious.  Go back to the old school donkey coming out of the D for denver, then we’ll talk.

* Division MVP: peyton manning, denver broncos.  Can we be honest here for a moment?  If peyton manning isn’t under center, the broncos are lucky – lucky – to go 5-11.  peyton is going to single handedly win the donkeys at least three games they have no business winning.  I just pray to God that one of those three isn’t in the wildcard round …

* Song from Mixology 2012 to Describe Each Team:

Kansas City Chiefs: “I Got a Name” by Jim Croce.  “Like the fool that I am and I’ll always be?  I’ve got a dream, I’ve got a dream.  They can change their minds, but they can’t change me.  I’ve got a dream!  I’ve got a dream!  I know I could share it if you want me to – if you’re going my way?  I’ll go with you …”

San Diego “Super” Chargers: “Modern Love” by Matt Nathanson.  “This modern love, is not enough”.  What every Chargers fan is saying about the Norv Turner era.

denver broncos: from “The Simpsons:”

(doorbell) (ding!  dong!)

(mail dude) telegram!

(homer simpson) Project Arturis couldn’t have succeeded without you.  This will get you a little closer to that dream of yours.  It’s not the Dallas Cowboys, but it’s a start.  Drop me a line if you’re on the east coast, Hank Scorpio.

(camera) (pans back to show a bunch of clumsy, out of shape, worthless football players)

(homer simpson) AWWW!  The denver broncos!!!

(marge simpson) I think owning the denver broncos is pretty good!

(homer simpson) (disappointed voice) yeah, yeah.

(marge simpson) Well explain to me why it isn’t?

(homer simpson) (sighs in disgust) You just don’t understand football, Marge.

Hey, it was that, or “Lips of an Angel” by Hinder.  Either one will piss off the resident denver fan … so I went with the less offensive* (rimshot!) 

oakland raiders: “In the Air Tonight” by Phil Collins.  No matter how much I hate that team … there’s something about playing in the black hole that’s just inspirational.

(*: I still don’t get her hatred of this song.  It’s a GREAT song!)

Bottom Line: the way this played out, the AFC West gets three in for the first time since … uum … hang on, gotta look this up … first time since 1993!  Holy crap Batman!

Final Prediction: wildcard weekend, if this plays out as I anticipate / prognosticate / fling the dung against the wall and hope it doesn’t skid to the floor?  Uum, yeah.  Look at who finishes first, look at who finishes third, realize those are your 3 and 6 seeds, and, uum, yeah.

2012's most anticipated post part viii: the afc south

And now, for the division that wound up so wacky, I actually had to go back and double check a few picks, just to confirm I didn’t accidentally type a W into the column when it should have been a L, your AFC South …

(Please click picture below for full Excel schedule breakdown):

* Final Order of Finish:

1. Tennessee Titans

2. Jacksonville Jaguars

3. Houston Texans

4. Indianapolis Colts

* First Read: Tennessee winning didn’t surprise me.  I’ve been leaning Titans to win this division since Houston stupidly cut Eric Winston, traded DeMeco Ryans, and let Mario Williams walk.  You can’t lose that much talent and not take a hit.  But the Jaguars in second?  And even more incredibly …

* Biggest Game: Jaguars at Titans, week 17.  Winner takes all.  If the Jags win, they finish 9-7 and win the division via a sweep of the Titans.  If the Titans win, they win the division via best overall record.  Insane.

* Seems wacky: uum, just about everything?  The Jaguars controlled their own destiny in week 17!  How did that happen?  The Texans are mathematically out of it by Thanksgiving?  The Colts actually won a couple games, including one over Tennessee that set up the winner take all week seventeen scenario that every NBC executive, up to and including our “good buddy”, Ol’ Pete King himself, is praying has no shot of occurring, because seriously, who WOULDN’T want to watch Jaguars at Titans as the final game of the season?  (Stevo raising his hand).

* Division (Home) Uniform Rankings:

1. Jacksonville Jaguars

2. Indianapolis Colts

3. Tennessee Titans

4. Houston Texans

Reason: other than three teams in the remaining division, there is no home uniform in regular use that I love more than the Jaguars.  Love it, totally dig it.  Now, ranking Houston last is a bit cruel, because their battle blue or liberty red unis, are awesome.  The problem is they also have the rally white, and sorry, but when you have THREE regular uniforms in the rotation for a home game, and one of them is white?  You’re not winning in my poll.

* Division MVP: Blaine Gabbert, Jacksonville Jaguars.  Call me a dreamer, say I’m a little naïve, but I believe in this guy.  Mike Mularkey is the perfect coach for him – hell, Mularkey made Matt Ryan a stud, he salvaged Drew Bledsoe’s career, the guy can flat out coach offense.  (He’s in over his head as the head coach, but the Jaguars will figure that out soon enough.

* Song from Mixology 2012 to Describe Each Team:

Tennessee Titans: “Sideways” by Dierks Bentley.  Just as in the NFC, the AFC South is beyond a little sideways.

Jacksonville Jaguars: “5-1-5-0” by Dierks Bentley.  I’m definitely a little loco to project they’re in a “winner take all” week seventeen showdown.

Houston Texans: “Flake” by Jack Johnson.  Look at it this way Texans fans – if disappointing by going 7-9 convinced Bob McNair to clean house, fire incompetent GM Rick Smith, fire incompetent head coach Gary Kubiak, and bring in people with a clue?  It’s worth the step back, the “flake” season.

Indianapolis Colts: “Fresh” by Kool and the Gang.  If you’re gonna rebuild, do it right – tear the damned thing down to its foundation and rebuild from scratch.  It’s a lesson Carl Peterson didn’t learn until it was too late here in Kansas City.

* Bottom Line: the AFC’s top wildcard (and here’s a hint: they’re both coming from the AFC West) is going to be salivating over getting to open in Nashville, instead of Houston or a fellow AFC West team’s home joint.

* Final Prediction: that Jaguars / Titans clash in week seventeen will be appearing on your local NBC affiliate.

2012's most anticipated post part vii: the afc north

Put me in the minority … but I think the AFC North is going to be a joke of a division this year.  The division that sent three to the playoffs last year?  Is only going to send one this time.  But it’s sending a powerhouse that (skipping ahead a couple posts) I predict will wind up with home field advantage throughout the playoffs …

(Please click picture below for full Excel schedule breakdown):

* Final Order of Finish:

1. Baltimore Ravens

2. Pittsburgh Steelers

3. Cincinnati Bengals

4. Cleveland Browns

* First Read: No surprises whatsoever.  Yes, I read a couple big upsets in this division that wound up affecting other divisions … but at the end of the day, I don’t think the Bengals can repeat last year’s run, I think Pittsburgh is going to take a step back, and the Browns are atrocious.

* Biggest Game: Patriots at Ravens, week 3.  Determined home field advantage throughout the AFC postseason, for whatever that’s worth.

* Seems wacky: nothing.  No, really – if you asked any person with even a minimal knowledge of the sport to rank these four teams entering the season?  This is exactly how they’d rank them.

* Division (Home) Uniform Rankings:

1. Pittsburgh Steelers

2. Baltimore Ravens

3. Cleveland Browns

4. Cincinnati Bengals

Reason: you can flip Cleveland and Cincinnati, depending on how you view poop brown colored uniforms … but there’s no way the Steelers don’t rank at the top.

* Division MVP: Ray Rice, Baltimore Ravens.  To be fair, the MVP should be Joe Flacco … but he never gets the credit he’s due.  Seriously, consider what Flacco has accomplished in four years – four playoff berths, he’s won at least one game every time he’s gotten there, and played in two AFC Title Games, coming within one of the most epic missed field goals of all time from reaching the Super Bowl eight months ago.  (Here’s where I’d haul out the “even I’ve made a 30 yarder at the NFL experience” blast … but I’d have choked as badly as Billy Cundiff did from 28 in that spot, if I was in that, uum, spot.)  Anyone who says Joe Flacco is not an “elite” or a “franchise” quarterback, needs to have a mental health evaluation conducted on them on the spot.

* Song from Mixology 2012 to Describe Each Team:

Baltimore Ravens: “Closer” by Ne-Yo.  Is this the year they finally break through?  They keep getting closer every damned season to the sport’s ultimate prize.

Pittsburgh Steelers: “Face Down” by The Red Jumpsuit Apparatus.  Have fun with Coach Asshat guys.  I can think of 53 players and at least one hot-as-holy-hell 35 year old blogger who have November 12^th circled, highlighted, and marked with pins you’d insert into a voodoo doll, anxiously anticipating our crack at you.

Cincinnati Bengals: “Man in the Mirror” by Michael Jackson.  I actually sometimes wonder, as the ninth anniversary of drunken Bengals fan brawling with me approaches, if said drunken Bengals fan has even an ounce of appreciation for the fact that I refused to press charges against him for his assault and battery that day?  Has he started with the man in the mirror?  Has he decided to change his ways?  I still think I did the right thing, to act like the whole thing never happened, but please, fellow readers, NFL fans – it is perfectly cool to verbally taunt the opposition.  It is NEVER cool to cold cock the other team’s fan in the face because you don’t like that he applauded when his team scored.  That is NEVER cool.  Especially when it results in that poor dude who got cold-cocked (hey, that’s me!) having to drop $553 on a new pair of glasses because he’s blind as a bat without those or contacts.  On second thought, I should have pressed charges … or at least sent him a bill.

Cleveland Browns: “Out of My Head” by Theory of a Deadman.  If you ignore them, do they just go away?  God I hope so.  I’m sorry Cooksey, but your team SUCKS chica.  SUCKS!

Bottom Line: I believe this is the Ravens last true shot at a championship, at least with this core of players, especially on defense.  They will put themselves in prime position to pull it off.

Final Prediction: we’ll have our first sideline brawl since the end of the 1993 season, when Buddy Ryan and Kevin Gilbride threw down on the Oilers sideline, at some point during the Chiefs / Steelers Monday nighter, as Big Ben and Coach Asshat exchange blows.  Good times!

2012's most anticipated post part vi: the afc east

(mid 1980s nbc announcer voice) Previously, on 2012's most anticipated post of the year ...

Click here for the NFC East projections.
Click here for the NFC North projections.
Click here for the NFC South projections.
Click here for the NFC West projections.
Click here for the NFC Postseason projections.

And now, Part VI, the AFC East:

---------------------

And now we turn our attention, slowly yet surely, to the AFC, the conference from which I’d wager all $25.02 in my checking account, and $19.74 in my savings account (reminds me, damned BofA “keep the change” thingy.  No wonder my balance seemed way off this morning) that this year’s Lombardi Trophy winner will emerge from.

Having watched three weeks of the preseason, I am 90% confident in who the six playoff teams from the AFC are going to be.  Well, scratch that – I’m extremely confident on five of them.  I’m still not sure about who I have winning the AFC South.  Let’s start with by far and away the easiest division to predict …

(Please click picture below for full Excel schedule breakdown):

* Final Order of Finish:

1. New England Patriots

2. Buffalo Bills

3. New York Jets

4. Miami Dolphins

* First Read: No surprises whatsoever.  I thought the Pats or the AFC North winner will have home field advantage coming into this, and am not surprised New England checks in at 13 wins.  A December Jets collapse to cost them a playoff berth?  That NEVER happens (rimshot!)

* Biggest Game: Patriots at Ravens, week 3.  Could have huge playoff seeing ramifications, plus it’s a rematch of one tremendous AFC Title Game eight months ago.  Also, Bills at Dolphins week 16 – my one projected upset that throws the AFC playoff field into abject chaos.  We get one every year.  I think this one is gonna be it.

* Seems wacky: nothing.  No, really – if you asked any person with even a minimal knowledge of the sport to rank these four teams entering the season?  This is exactly how they’d rank them.

* Division (Home) Uniform Rankings:

1. New York Jets

2. Buffalo Bills

3. Miami Dolphins

4. New England Patriots

Reason: before you accuse me of bias, when we get to the AFC West home uni rankings, you will see I am not only unbiased, if anything, I’m way TOO biased AGAINST my team’s uni.  None of these uniforms really stand out.  Green trumps three shades of blue.

* Division MVP: Tom Brady, Patriots.  The reigning and undefeated champion until proven otherwise. 

* Song from Mixology 2012 to Describe Each Team:

New England Patriots: “Let It Be” by the Beatles.  Why fix what ain’t broke?  Why mess with what works? 

Buffalo Bills: “I Will Wait” by Hootie and the Blowfish.  Thirteen years without a playoff berth and counting, the longest streak in the league.  That ain’t good.

New York Jets: “Downfall” by TRUST Company.  I can only speak for myself, but I am SO anxiously awaiting the inevitable December collapse, that begins Thanksgiving night at the Fake Meadowlands against the Patriots.

Miami Dolphins: “I Don’t Care” by Fall Out Boy.  Is there a more unwatchable team in the league?  No, really – is there any other team in this league you have LESS of a desire to see than the Dolphins?  Because I can’t think of one.

* Bottom Line: Tom Brady took over as the Patriots quarterback in week two of the 2001 season, after the Jets nearly ended Drew Bledsoe’s career when Mo Lewis collapsed Bledsoe’s lung on a vicious hit.  (Of COURSE the Jets ensured fifteen years of futility by getting Brady on the field.  Bleeding Christ.)

In the 11 seasons since, the Patriots have won the division nine times, and Brady has been there starter for ten of those 11 seasons.  Can you name the only quarterback in the last 11 years to win the AFC East other than Tom Brady?

And … time.  The answer is Chad Pennington, in 2002 with the Jets, in 2008 with the Dolphins.  That’s dominance.

* Final Prediction: Chad Pennington will remain the only quarterback not named Tom Brady to win the AFC East in the Brady era.

2012's most anticipated post, part i: the nfc east

I begin “The Most Anticipated Post Of the Year” by noting … that you’re getting not one, not two, not even three.  (“super colon blow”* announcer voice) I’ll give you one more guess.  Four?

Not even close.

(*: note: I clicked at least 45 pages deep in a Youtube! search for this all-time classic SNL ad parody.  If you've never seen it, you have truly missed out on one of Phil Hartman's greatest moments.)

You’re getting AT LEAST nine most anticipated posts!  Oh hell yes, I’m breaking this out, one for each division, and then the overall postseason*!  I’m telling you, I am GEEKED for this season**! 

(*: I honestly am this fired up.  I’m actually attending Friday’s crappy scrimmage to boot!  The last time I made both preseason games?  2006, the last time I was as fired up for a season as I am for this one.  And yes, I still think trading a fourth round pick for Herm Edwards was a smart move, and if I ran the Chiefs, Herm would still be our head coach.  Deal with it.  Ask yourself this – was Todd Haley better than Herm?  (Nope).  And I wouldn’t wager even $0.01 on Romeo winding up better than him …)

(**: if you don’t think this is a BLATANT, beyond obvious attempt to speed up the push to 600 posts (this one is 587), then you’re dumber than an Obama economic proposal.  (pause.)  Vote Romney!!!)

Let’s begin in the NFC East, also known as the only division I believe every team will at least finish .500 in (click picture below for full Excel schedule breakdown):

* Final Order of Finish:

1. Dallas Cowboys (win tiebreaker on divisional record)

2. Philadelphia Eagles

3. New York Giants

4. Washington Redskins

* First Read: you win seven in a row to close your season, good things are probably going to happen as a result.  I have Dallas opening 3-6 … then rallying to steal the division in the season finale.  Also, closing with 5 of 7 at home doesn't hurt either.

* Biggest Game(s): obviously Dallas holding serve at home to open December.  That ultimately decided the division champion.  Also, the Philly games against the NFC South.  Wound up being HUGE in figuring out the abject clusterfuck the final wildcard wound up being.  (Cue the “stay tuned …” voice).

* Seems wacky: nothing, honestly.  Philly entered the finale simply needing to win (or have Dallas lose) to win the division, or possibly get the six seed as their failsafe.  Dallas, the Giants, and Washington all entered the finale very much alive for the final wildcard slot, and in Dallas’ case, very much alive for the division.  This almost played out exactly like I expected entering the schedule running ... except Dallas and Philly flipped spots.  

* Division (Home) Uniform Rankings: I love this ongoing feature at ESPN.com this week, so I'm blatantly stealing it to get another category in each division's prognostication.  (FYI: both the Royals and the Chiefs are in the top 50 … I’m guessing the Royals appear in tomorrow’s 26-50 ranking, and the Chiefs crack the top 25.  Also?  denver ranked 107 (out of 122).  Seems a tad too high, by about 15 spots, to be honest.  Even in a damned pointless "rank the pro sports uniform" throw-away feature, I can find a way to hate denver.  Admit it: I'm pretty damned talented!!)

Anyways, NFC East (Home) Uni Rankings:

1. Dallas Cowboys

2. Washington Redskins

3. New York Giants

4. Philadelphia Eagles

Reason: normally I oppose white jerseys for home games in football … but come on, the Cowboys white look is CLASSIC.  They're the only NFL team that can get away with it.  I love when the ‘Skins go Indian red with puke yellow, it’s another classic look.  Giants and Eagles both rank in the bottom five uniforms in the league, although the lower-case “ny” on their helmets somewhat redeems the Giants.  Philly’s unis?  Terrible.  Beyond atrocious.  What in the hell is that wing-like thing on their helmet and shoulder pads?  I say wing-like, because I honestly have NO CLUE if the artist has ever seen an eagle’s wing before.  It looks like my four year old nephew designed it, and, uum, while he’s “My Special Little Guy”, let’s just say, art is not going to be his strength in life.

* Division MVP: Tony Romo, Cowboys.  If Dallas wins this division, it’s because Romo finally elevates his game to a championship caliber-level.  I have them winning the division.  (u2 voice) el-e-va-tion!

* Division Coach / Year: “Fat” Andy Reid, Eagles.  He has to reach the playoffs, and probably win at least once, once he gets there, to keep his job.  (Side note to Scott Pioli: if Jeff Lurie is dumb enough to fire “Fat” Andy Reid?  The VERY NEXT PHONE CALL Mr. Reid gets had BETTER be from your, sir.) 

I predict the Eagles will at least reach the clusterfuck of 10-6 NFC teams desperately brushing up on tie-breaker procedures to figure out who the six seed is.  (Trust me – when the full NFC plays out, you’ll be as “wait, what?!?!” when it comes to who the six seed is, as I wound up.  And yes, a freaking “fling it against the wall and see if it sticks” projection on STRENGTH OF VICTORY to figure out the second place NFC South team?  Actually wound up determining the six seed amongst the three teams tied for it (and I have SIX NFC teams finishing 10-6 … although 3 won their divisions).  In the words of Jack Buck, “Go crazy folks!  Go crazy!!!”)

* Song From Mixology 2012 To Describe Each Team:

Dallas Cowboys – “The Best of What’s Around” by DMB.  Hey, they do project to win the division, albeit through the biggest backdoor playoff berth since the 1995 Lions.

Philadelphia Eagles – “I Want It All” by Queen.  It would have been “All Or Nothing” by Theory of a Deadman, but, uum, they didn’t make the initial Mixologist’s cut.

New York Giants – “Dancing On The Ceiling” by Lionel Richie.  Defending champs.  I can only DREAM of the day I can say that about the Chiefs.

Washington Redskins – “Daydream Believer” by the Monkees.  I’d argue they’re the best last place team in football … but just wait until I get to the NFC South projections.  I have the ‘Skins three games ahead of the last place NFC South team (with a victory in hand).  And on a neutral field?  The NFC South loser would be AT LEAST a touchdown favorite today, over the ‘Skins.  Also, I just like typing ‘Skins.  #callmearacist,kcstar.

* Bottom line: this division ROCKS.  No, really – it effing ROCKS.  I could watch NFC East teams battle all Sunday long, and again on Monday night, every week.  And clearly the powers that be agree with me – no division has more prime time and stand alone national contests, than the NFC East does, with 24 (out of 64 games NFC East teams will play.  More than 1 out of every 3 NFC East scheduled game, will be in the national slot.  (john davidson voice) That’s incredible!)

* Final Prediction: For the third consecutive offseason, no NFC East team will change its head coach.  That HAS to be some kind of record for this division, the most competitive in the NFL for decades running now.

Coming next bat time, same bat channel?  The NFC North – the ONLY division so far that went EXACTLY as I thought it would entering the running of the schedules …

2012 stevo nfl coaches power poll

Do you realize we are less than two weeks away from training camp getting up and running?  That three weeks from Friday, we’ll be enjoying the first tailgate of the season, for the preseason home opener*?  Yeah, where the hell did summer go**?!?!?!

(*: I am undecided on attending.  On one hand, I’d rather burn a half day PTO and spend a nice Friday afternoon getting my ass kicked eight ways from Friday at washers by Dusty.  (Which will happen on Thursday this week at the Royals game.  The safest bet in life: Dusty -2 1/2 in a game to 15.)  

On the other hand, (gregg voice) ITS PRESEASON!!!  There’s a reason why I’ve made one preseason game in the last five years: they’re utterly unwatchable.  The fact that the NFL charges FULL PRICE for these exhibitions pisses me off like very little else does in life.)

(**: speaking of time flying by … do you realize a week from yesterday was this site’s founding?  My little baby’s growing up!  I feel a potential retrospective coming up later this week, possibly ...)

So, in recognition of the impending dawn of the season, it’s time to haul out an annual tradition on this site: the Stevo NFL Coaches Power Poll!

A few ground rules to explain the ratings, then let’s do this.

* 1 is Chuck Noll good, 32 is Rich Kotite / Ray Rhodes awful.  (And as always, I consider Chuck Noll the best NFL head coach of my lifetime.)

* Anyone who appears after Romeo Crennel, is a head coach I would fire Crennel to hire.  Anyone who appears before Romeo Crennel, is someone I would not fire Crennel to hire.

* First time head coaches tend to rank very low in their Stevo Coaches Power Poll debut.  This doesn’t mean I don’t think the guy is a good to great coach – it’s a reflection of the fact that all they are at this point is a POTENTIALLY good to great head coach.  For instance, in the 2007 Power Poll (sadly no longer available), I ranked Mike Tomlin 17^th, and noted “by next year, you’ll be able to drop the 1” from his ranking.  (I was right).  Conversely, I also thought Steve Spagnoulo would be a home run hire for the Rams.  Uum, whoops?  (There IS one first-year head coach though for 2012 that I am VERY high on, because I think the guy is going to be a huge success.  He might actually rank ahead of Romeo by the time we get there, that’s how highly I think of the guy …)

* Finally, my feelings about the team do not factor into these rankings.  They never have.  This is all about the head coach’s capabilities.

Prior Year’s NFL Coaches Power Polls:

* the 2008 rankings.

* the 2009 rankings.

*due to drunken oversight, there is no 2010 edition.

* the 2011 rankings. 

And now … the 2012 Stevo NFL Coaches Power Poll!!!

32. Pat Shurmur, Cleveland Browns.  Put it this way – when you’re hiring Brad Childress to right the offense enough to save your job come January?  It’s over.  Thankfully, the Browns should be in “quit on our coach” mode by the time the Chiefs roll into Cleveland in mid-December.

31. Joe Philbin, Miami Dolphins.  This is the rare first-time head coach I don’t need to give a year or two to prove himself.  This was a horrible hiring, and when the Dolphins are looking for his replacement 20 some odd months from now, you heard “this was a horrible hiring” here 55^th.

30. dennis allen, oakland raiders.  At least he came to them from denver, where he turned in a solid year presiding over the defense.  I think this guy is in over his head … but someone able to screw BOTH the unlovable raiders and the abortionable broncos at the same time?  In the words of Sgt. Rick Hunter, “it works for me!”

29. Mike Mularkey, Jacksonville Jaguars.  What in the name of God was Gene Smith thinking, giving this proven failure a second chance to run a team into the iceberg?  Mularkey was HORRENDOUS in Buffalo (although his team’s upset of the Chiefs in 2005 cost us a playoff berth).  Mularkey is a perfectly capable offensive coordinator.  He’s a TURRIBLE head coach, as Jags fan is about to find out firsthand.

28. Leslie Frazier, Minnesota Vikings.  I have rarely whiffed on a coach as badly as I whiffed on Frazier last year.  I still think this guy is going to be a decent head coach.  His first year in the full-time gig left a lot to be desired, however.

27. Chuck Pagano, Indianapolis Colts.  Put it this way – Pagano could walk to midfield, drop trough, and crap on the Colts horseshoe … and he’d STILL be a better coach than Jim Caldwell.  I don’t hold out much hope for this hire – like Mularkey, I think Pagano is a great coordinator and a poor hire as the main guy.  But again, after Jim Caldwell, there is NOWHERE to go but up.

26. Norv Turner, San Diego “Super” Chargers.  Oh Norv, how I am going to miss you when the long-overdue canning comes in January.  The Chargers have underachieved at a level over the last five years that the 1990s Chiefs are making fun of … and you can argue NO team “underachieved” in the 1990s more than the Chiefs (3-7 playoff record (including 5 “one and done” appearances), 0 AFC Championships, 0 Super Bowls).  Norv is the ULTIMATE “great coordinator, horrible head coach” in this league.  I’d hire Norv Turner yesterday to coach my offense.  I’d rather be Mike Tyson’s personal punching bag, than have him as my team’s head coach.

25. Mike Munchak, Tennessee Titans.  Solid first year.  I’m just not sold on him long-term.  And I should NOTE: from this point forward, I would NOT cancel my season tickets if this guy was my team’s head coach.  Remember the years when Ray Rhodes ranked in the top 10 best coaches in the league, that’s how awful the entire league’s coaching fraternity was?  Damn.  These GM’s are getting smarter.

24. Marvin Lewis, Cincinnati Bengals.  Three “one and done” playoff berths in a decade … but to Lewis’ credit, with one exception (2010), the Bengals have been in playoff contention every year entering December.  Could be a huge year for Lewis, as expectations are higher and the young talent needs to keep delivering on the field.

23. Jason Garrett, Dallas Cowboys.  Before you scream at me for ranking a pretty decent coach 23^rd best in the league … just keep reading the remaining 22 names on this list, and you tell me who you’d put Garrett ahead of.

22. Lovie Smith, Chicago Bears.  Bears were keeping pace (as much as possible anyways) with the Pack and Lions before Jay Cutler’s season ending injury.  If Cutler starts 14 games this year, the Bears will be a wildcard team.  If he starts 16?  Lovie could be making his 3^rd NFC Title Game appearance in 7 years.

21. Ken Whizenhunt, Arizona “Super” Cardinals.  Bad couple years in the desert for Whiz and his boys.  2012 doesn’t look much more promising.  Still, this is a team that will be in wildcard contention come mid-December (even if on the fringes of it) with no franchise quarterback, no running game, and an atrocious secondary.  That’s solid coaching, which is what Whizenhunt is – solid.

20. Jeff Fisher, St. Louis Rams.  When the Chiefs were doing their coaching search this past January, “The Voice of Reason” and I both examined Fisher’s record in Tennessee extensively (because we were both fine with Fisher as the hire).  Turns out … Fisher’s not as good as he seems.  Only six playoff berths in six years.  He’s lost three times as the one seed, at home, in their opening playoff game.  Basically?  He’s Marty Junior.  Which, don’t get me wrong, I’d be thrilled to have as my team’s head coach.  I’m just saying, there’s better options on the table … one of which I believe we hired.

19. Gary Kubiak, Houston Texans.  La de freaking da, the Texans win the South last year.  If Gary Kubiak’s team hadn’t won the division, he’d go down in history as one of the worst hires in franchise history.  I never would have given him an extension this offseason, as the Texans did.  The Texans should win the AFC South again this year, and probably for the next 2-3 years to come, unless Jake Locker or Blaine Gabbert crack their low-ceiling potential.  But that doesn’t mean I’m sold on Kubiak.  Not at all.

18. Romeo Crennel, Kansas City Chiefs.  Well, let’s focus on the positive – the team clearly responded to the coaching change last fall, his gameplan against Green Bay (with virtually no advance notice) was beyond flawless, and the man did win ten games with Derek Anderson under center with the Browns.  And … that’s about it.  I am not thrilled with the hire.  But I can live with it.  Romeo strikes me in many ways as Barry Switzer Junior -- competent enough to not f*ck it up, but incapable of adapting to the slighest deviation of plans for the seasons.  Let's hope the 2012 Chiefs make me even more fondly remember the 1995 Cowboys than I already do.

17. Jim Schwartz, Detroit Lions.  He’s a solid coach.  Solid, not spectacular.  Taking the Lions to the playoffs is nothing short of a lifetime achievement. 

16. Rex Ryan, NY Jets.  Two AFC Title Game appearances in his first two seasons, and a disappointing .500 season last year.  He’s a little too over-the-top for my liking … but there’s no doubt his players love him and buy in to what he’s selling.  And whatever you think of The Sanchize … you don’t win 4 road playoff games in two years unless you’re at least semi-competent.  I expect a rebound season out of the Jets, and Coach Rex.

15. Ron Rivera, Carolina Panthers.  Big second year upcoming for the Panthers, who many are tabbing as a serious sleeper to not only win the NFC South, but make some noise in the playoffs.  I agree the NFC’s sleeper is in the South … I just don’t think this is the team.

14. Sean Payton, New Orleans Saints.  A huge dip in the rankings for a coach I like, and have liked, dating back to the late 1990s when he oversaw Jim Fassel’s offenses in New York, and made Kerry Collins a Pro Bowl / Super Bowl quarterback.  Drop is due to a year-long suspension due to getting caught in BountyGate.  If any coach is in for a surprise firing this January, Payton is one to keep an eye on, if the Saints manage to win without him.

13. Pete Carroll, Seattle Seahawks.  The man who failed in New York and failed in New England … has yet to post a winning record in Seattle.  Why rank him 13^th?  Because both his Seahawks teams have dramatically overachieved, even winning a playoff game in his first season over a team with twice as many victories (13 to 7) as his team had.  I liked how the Seahawks didn’t quit at 2-6 at the midpoint – they won 5 of their last 8 as a sign of things to come.  I loved the Matt Flynn signing as well.  This is the biggest threat the 49ers face over the next few years in the NFC West … and to be honest?  I think the Seahawks can overtake them, as soon as this fall.

12. Greg Schiano, Tampa Bay Buccaneers.  I’m willing to wager that this is the highest I’ve ever ranked a first year head coach.  And I’m also willing to wager he’s going to earn this lofty ranking pretty damned quickly.  Look it, the guy turned Rutgers – RUTGERS!!! – into a legitimate national championship threat in an (albeit) wacky 2007 season.  The man can flat out coach.  You know who he reminds me of?  Jimmy Johnson.  College guy, takes a doormat program to unheard of heights, then immediately does things when he reaches the pros that endears his players to him, and ensures their blind loyalty going forward.  Schiano’s going to be a damned good pro coach, just like he was a phenomenal college coach.  I really liked this hire, in a “Tampa Bay is winning the NFC South this fall” kind of way.

11. Chan Gailey, Buffalo Bills.  The man I wanted the Chiefs to hire in 2009 (they opted for Todd Haley).  A man whose teams usually overachieve.  His guys are always prepared to play, are almost never caught by surprise, and he’s one of the brightest offensive minds of the last 20 some odd years in this league.  I mean, my God, this man made Kordell Stewart AND Jay Fiedler Pro Bowl caliber quarterbacks!  To say nothing of what he accomplished here in KC with Tyler Thigpen.

And now, we’ve reached the Top Ten … and to be honest?  I’d probably pee my pants with glee if ANY of these was employed by the Kansas City Chiefs …

10. Mike Smith, Atlanta Falcons.  Three years, three winning seasons, two playoff berths.  A grousely underrated hire in 2009, he’s turned into the dean of that year’s coaching class.  Has a very bright future ahead of him, and I know I’m looking forward to watching what his defense has in store for the Chiefs in our home opener.  This man is a brilliant head coach who is never caught unprepared.  Thank God Romeo’s had six months to prepare to face him.

9. Mike McCarthy, Green Bay Packers.  True story – this guy was Elvis Grbac’s quarterback coach in Kansas City.  So if ANYONE from the KC Metro area ever says “yeah, I saw how great a coach McCarthy was going to be”?  Call them on their bullshit.  McCarthy has exceeded any reasonable expectations, let alone irrational ones, since his surprise promotion to the main gig in 2006.  Only one losing season (the year Favre left).  Four playoff berths in six years, and a Super Bowl championship to boot.  Not too shabby.  Not too shabby at all.

8. Mike Shanahan, Washington Redskins.  Look it, I get it that Shanahan hasn’t been “as successful” without john elway as he was with him.  To which I reply “no sh*t, Sherlock”.  I consider elway the greatest to ever take a snap under center, and this is a man of whom I will proudly piss on his tombstone someday (hopefully sooner rather than later).  You don’t replace an elway, you learn to adapt without him, which Shanahan has done relatively well, all things considered.  Turning RGIII loose in Shanahan’s gameplan?  Look out NFC!  The Redskins are on the rise, and I will be shocked (provided Dan Snyder stays the course) if the Skins don’t reach a Super Bowl within the next 4 years.

7. john fox, denver broncos.  The man just won a division championship and a playoff game against the defending conference champions with timothy r. tebow as his quarterback.  How ANYONE can question fox’s coaching capabilities, I have no idea.  The man reached two NFC Title Games with Jake Delhomme under center for crying out loud.  I am FRIGHTENED … no, scratch that – TERRIFIED … to see what fox can do with a  legitimate franchise quarterback under center. 

(Told you these were unbiased rankings – Crennel barely cracks the top 20, and not one but TWO donkey coaching greats are in the top 10.)

6. “Fat” Andy Reid, Philadelphia Eagles.  Oh, sweet Jesus, how I wish the Eagles had fired him after their tremendous underachievements last year.  The ONLY complaint you can make about Reid is his clock management (which, to be fair, IS abysmal).  The solution is obvious – hire a Mike White type coach to manage your replays and timeouts, like Dick Vermeil did here in KC.  Problem solved.  Reid is a brilliant offensive coach, knows his limitations enough to not even bother with the defense, and has enough GM acumen to know when to dump an overrated backup quarterback on multiple occasions (2^nd rounders for Jay Feeley, Kevin Kolb, AND Donovan McNabb for Christ’s sake!)  Any team this guy patrols the sidelines for?  Is an instant threat to win the division, and do some damage come January.  Don’t believe me?  Reid was hired before the 1999 season.  Since then, the Eagles have had a losing record exactly twice – Reid’s debut in 1999 (5-11 … but won their last three), and 2005 (the TO debacle that spiraled to 6-10).  Every other year, the Eagles have been at least .500 … and 9 of the last 12 years, they’ve reached the playoffs, reaching the NFC Title Game in 5 of those 9 appearances (and one Super Bowl as well).  The fact that Reid ranks sixth, tells you how strong the top five are …

5. Tom Coughlin, New York Giants.  At some point, you can’t ignore the on-field results anymore.  Personally?  I can’t stand Coughlin, and think he’s the luckiest son of a bitch to come down the pike since Barry Switzer.  But again, at some point?  You can’t ignore the on-field results anymore, and after winning two Super Bowls in four years?  You can’t ignore the on-field results anymore. 

The reason I so strongly dislike Coughlin, is that he’s the ultimate “all or nothing” coach.  Either your team is going to play for a championship, or their season ends week 17.  Rarely does a Coughlin team simply “reach” January and post a one-and-done.  Either they make a run at least to the conference title game … or they fail to qualify for the chance to get there.  For me?  I’d rather have a Marty type run, where at least you know you’ll be playing in January every year, than have a 1 in 5 shot of the ultimate success.  But that’s just me.

4. Jim Harbaugh, San Francisco 49ers.  Without question, the best first season coaching job since … his brother took the Ravens to the AFC Title Game in 2008?  I’d argue Jim’s was better, because at least John was inheriting a solid team that just had a down year (the 2006 Ravens did go 13-3, while the 2007 4-12 squad got Brian Billick fired).  Since … Rex Ryan in New York, Barry Switzer in Dallas, George Seifert in San Fran, or Bud Carson in Cleveland (all of whom at least played for a conference title)?

I expect the 49ers to take a step back this year, due to a tougher schedule and a legitimate divisional rival capable of beating them in the Seahawks.  But what the lowest ranked Harbaugh in this year’s coaches poll achieved last year?  Was pretty damned good.

3. Bill Belichick, New England Patriots.  Wait, he ISN’T the best coach in the league according to me?  Over the last ten years, absolutely he is.  Over the last couple seasons?  Not a chance in hell he tops either of the two AFC North rivals still to appear.

It’s easier to win with a franchise QB that is a sure-fire “44-0 vote” Hall of Famer under center.  (Ask Jim Caldwell if said sure fire “44-0” first ballot Hall of Famer can hide coaching deficiencies).  Belichick isn’t deficient – far from it.  I’d argue last year might have been his best coaching job since 2001.  But if I had to pick a coach for ONE game, on the road, with a Lombardi Trophy on the line?  At best, Belichick is my third choice.  At least amongst active coaches.  (For retired / dead coaches, I’d prefer Chuck Noll, Bill Walsh, and on occasion, Mike Holmgren, the most criminitely underrated head coach of the last 20 years in the league.)

2. Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh Steelers.  Picking between the top two, leaves no losers amongst those who read this … because they’re that damned solid.  (Although it does tend to leave a lot of losers in the fanbase of their opposition on a particular Sunday or two each year.)

I love Tomlin.  I’d follow that man through the gates of hell itself if he led the charge.  Mike Tomlin is everything I thought Herm Edwards would eventually develop into (and maybe he still will – I still think UCLA blew it by opting for Jim Mora Jr over Edwards … and I actually like Mora Jr.  Not a bad hire … but not the best hire, which was Herm).

To replace a legend coming off a Super Bowl win and fifteen ridiculously successful years, takes a special kind of coach.  Bill Cowher was that kind of coach, replacing Chuck Noll (who, again, I regard as the best NFL head coach of my lifetime).  Mike Tomlin has been more than up to the challenge, winning the AFC North in his first year, winning a Super Bowl in his second, and never failing to be playing beyond week 17 since.

But unfortunately for Mr. Tomlin … I can’t even rank him as the best head coach in his division, and the 2012 Stevo NFL Head Coaches Power Poll winner is …

1. John Harbaugh, Baltimore Ravens.  For one reason, really.  He doesn’t have a sure-fire Hall of Famer under center.  Look it, I’d trade Matt Cassel for Joe Flacco yesterday – Christ, I’d trade Matt Cassel for Elvis Grbac yesterday, that’s how little I think of Cassel.  So give Harbaugh that much credit – he knows his guy’s limitations, and builds the gameplan to overcome said limitations.  Dick Vermeil and Al Saunders did this brilliantly in KC with Trent Green.  Jim Harbaugh does this beyond brilliantly in San Fran with Alex Smith (although I’m in the minority – I think Smith is a decent quarterback … provided he’s in the right system.)  And nobody was better at maximizing mediocre talent under center than Ernie Zampeze in the 1990s with the Cowboys*.

(*: I am fully aware Troy Aikman is a Hall of Famer, a proud member of the Cowboys Ring of Honor, and deservedly so on both counts.  Having said that, do you REALLY think Aikman was ANYTHING other than the 4^th best QB in any given year in the NFC in the 1990s?  Do you rank Aikman ahead of Steve Young?  (I don’t).  Ahead of Brett Favre?  (Nope).  Randall Cunningham in his prime to open the decade in Philly?  (Nope).  Scott Mitchell in Detroit in his prime in the middle of the decade?  (Just seeing if you’re still paying attention … but you can actually make a damned good case for Mitchell, believe it or not, if stats were the only thing that mattered.)

What Harbaugh has milked out of this Ravens team (four playoff berths, six playoff wins, two AFC Title Game appearances) is nothing short of remarkable, given that the defense has been running on fumes since before he arrived, they have no aerial attack to speak of, and their featured runner has routinely been hurt.  All they do, is go 11-5, 12-4 every year, and threaten to win the AFC.

That’s why John Harbaugh wins the 2012 Stevo Coaches Power Poll rankings post.  Partly because yes, he legitimately earns it … but also because, that playoff game two years ago at Arrowhead, between the Chiefs I love and Harbaugh’s Ravens? 

Was a CLINIC in how to boatrace an opponent, a CLINIC in how to maximize matchup disadvantages and advantages.  That entire second half was a textbook / benchmark coaching performance on how to win when it counts. 

Here’s to hoping SOMEONE at One Arrowhead Drive paid attention to the woodshed beating laid on us that day, and I’m looking squarely at you Romeo as I type that …