"There's something wrong with the world today;
I don't know what it is.
There's something wrong with our eyes.
We're seeing things in a different way,
And God knows it ain't His.
It sure ain't no surprise.
We're living on the edge!
Living on the edge!
Living on the edge!
Living on the edge!
There's something wrong with the world today;
The light bulb's getting dim.
There's meltdown in the skies.
If you can judge a wise man
By the color of his skin?
Then mister, you're a better man than I.
We're living on the edge!
(You can't help yourself from falling!)
Living on the edge!
(You can't help yourself at all!)
Living on the edge!
(You can't help yourself from falling!)
Living on the edge!
(You can't help yourself at all!) ...
-- "Living on the Edge" by Aerosmith.
--------------------
Here are your 2019 NFL Season Predictions, broken down into five parts:
Part I: The Last Place Finishers
Part II: The Third Place Finishers
Part III: The Wild Card Contenders
Part IV: The Division Winners
Part V: The Postseason
Also, this is your Week One Power Poll. As always, 32 is typical New York Jets bad, 1 is typical New England Patriots good.
Enjoy.
--------------------
16. those people.
Last Year: 6-10-0, 3rd Place, AFC West.
Prediction: 8-8-0, 2nd Place, AFC West.
I have them losing all four road games after their bye (@ Vikings, @ Bills, @ Chiefs, @ Texans). Win any of those, and they're your six seed. Especially if that win is the Bills roadie.
15. Jacksonville Jaguars.
Last Year: 5-11-0, Last Place, AFC South.
Prediction: 9-7-0, 2nd Place, AFC South.
Another team I have dropping every road game after their bye, when winning just one of them could mean the postseason. Especially if that one is against either the Colts or the Titans.
14. Philadelphia Eagles.
Last Year: 9-7-0, 2nd Place, NFC East.
Postseason: W Wild Card 16-14 (@ Bears); L Divisional Round 14-20 (@ Saints).
Prediction: 10-6-0, 2nd Place, NFC East.
It's a clusterf*ck at 10-6 in the NFC, and the Eagles are one of the two that get screwed. Along with ...
13. New Orleans Saints.
Last Year: 13-3-0, NFC South Champions.
Postseason: W Divisional Round 20-14 (vs Eagles); L Conference Championship 23-26 (OT) (vs Rams).
Prediction: 10-6-0, 2nd Place, NFC South.
I have them going 2-6 away from the Dome. That dooms them to picking 20th next April.
Which leads us to our four wild cards, two per conference ...
12. Buffalo Bills.
Last Year: 6-10-0, 3rd Place, AFC East.
Prediction: 10-6-0, 2nd Place, AFC East; Sixth Seed AFC.
This was the tiebreaker that came down to strength of victory. But it wasn't between the Bills, and who you might expect.
11. Green Bay Packers.
Last Year: 6-9-1, 3rd Place, NFC Norris.
Prediction: 10-6-0, 2nd Place, NFC Norris; Sixth Seed NFC.
Although after Thursday night, I might want to flip who I have 1-2 in the Norris. I have them both at 10-6.
10. San Francisco 49ers.
Last Year: 4-12-0, 3rd Place, NFC West.
Prediction: 10-6-0, 2nd Place, NFC West; Fifth Seed NFC.
I'm not sure what's more full of sh*t with this prediction -- the streets of San Francisco, or me. I just really like this team this year. And I have them at ten wins with a gigantic upset loss at Fake RFK, that's how much I believe in these guys.
9. Pittsburgh Steelers.
Last Year: 9-6-1, 2nd Place, AFC Norris.
Prediction: 10-6-0, 2nd Place, AFC Norris; Fifth Seed AFC.
Addition by subtraction baby!
Up next: your divisional winners. Six of whom are repeats from last season. Plus the schedule runs, to show how I arrived at your team's projected record(s) ...
Showing posts with label jaguars. Show all posts
Showing posts with label jaguars. Show all posts
Saturday, September 7, 2019
Wednesday, September 5, 2018
stevo's 2018 nfl predictions
"Well my friends?
The time has come.
To raise the roof,
And have some fun.
Throw away
The work to be done,
And let the music
Play on!
Everybody sing;
Everybody dance.
Lose yourself?
In wild romance!
We're going to party!
Caramba! Fiesta!
Forever!
Come on and sing along!
We're going to party!
Caramba! Fiesta!
Forever!
Come on and sing along!
All night long! (All night!)
All night! (All night!)
All night long! (All night!)
All night! (All night!)
All night long! (All night!)
All night! (All night!)
All night long! (All night!)
All night! (All night!) ...
-- "All Night Long" by Lionel Richie.
--------------------
Welcome to the 2018 NFL Season Predictions Post.
Unlike last year, I'm not splitting this into five pieces, namely because I don't have the time to do it. So here we go, via the Version 1.0 NFL Power Poll for 2018.
Oh, and the schedule runs will appear as the eight division winners appear farther down this post.
(And yes, I know -- I somehow wound up with a 255-257 record. I literally spent an afternoon at work going line by line across sheets to find the error, and I couldn't do it. Also, I should probably note, this is year twenty of me working as a reinsurance accountant across two global and one local reinsurance companies. I am a fairly well known name in the industry (which, in a rarity for me, being fairly well known is a positive). And I couldn't find one error on seventeen lines of a tab despite four hours and multiple formulas (to say nothing of literally printing off each tab and going literally line by line by hand, to try to find said error). I feel you should know that.)
All I can say, is that if you're a fan of the direction the NFL is heading on the field? (And I sure as hell am!) Then you're gonna love the final four matchups, my schedule run came up with.
And I mean LOVE.
Because there isn't a quarterback over the age of 24, in my Final Four.
Tier One: The Last Place Finishers.
32. Baltimore Ravens (AFC Norris).
Projected Finish: 3-13-0 Overall / 0-6-0 Division / 1-11-0 Conference.
This is gonna be a brutal season for the Ravens. So brutal? That I project they will "accomplish" something they have never done in 22 prior years: lose at Arrowhead in a game that counts.
31. Arizona "Super" Cardinals (NFC West).
Projected Record: 3-13-0 Overall / 0-6-0 Division / 1-11-0 Conference.
On the bright side, you got Josh Rosen, my favorite QB in this year's draft. On the down side, you got Josh Rosen, my favorite QB in this year's draft.
30. New York Giants (NFC East).
Projected Record: 4-12-0 Overall / 2-4-0 Division / 4-8-0 Conference.
I give it until about seven minutes left in the second quarter Sunday, before the "Pat Must Go!" chants break out at Fake Giants Stadium. Considering Pat Shurmur never should have been hired, that seems like a conservative guesstimate, on the exact point the fanbase revolts against this indefensible hire.
29. New York Jets (AFC East).
Projected Record: 4-12-0 Overall / 2-4-0 Division / 4-8-0 Conference.
Drafting Browning Nagle Junior (aka Sam Darnold) might finally be my breaking point with this miserable franchise. (Pause). Jesus, I'll never quit these lovable losers.
28. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (NFC South).
Projected Record: 5-11-0 Overall / 3-3-0 Division / 4-8-0 Conference.
Opening 0-5 (as I project the Bucs will do) does nothing to help inspire confidence in the future of this franchise. Much less the present.
27. Los Angeles "Super" Chargers (AFC West).
Projected Record: 6-10-0 Overall / 2-4-0 Division / 4-8-0 Conference.
This team is 4-11 in games that count prior to October 9th the previous three years. Four. And. Eleven.
(In contrast? The Chiefs are 9-5. (We had the early bye (Week 5) in 2016 to account for a one game difference.) The point being? The Chiefs average being two games ahead of these guys at the quarter point of the season, the last three years. Also, the Chiefs owned divisional wins over the Chargers at the quarter point in both 2016 and 2017, as part of those nine wins and eleven Charger defeats, so make it effectively three games up with eleven to play.)
Their head coach is a blithering idiot, their quarterback has more kids (eight at last count) than playoff berths in his career (five at last count), they play in a stadium that freaking Dolphins fans outnumbered Chargers fans in last fall (to say nothing of every other visitor to wherever the hell they play at), and as if all that isn't damning enough ...
They open vs Chiefs (who they haven't beaten in their last eight attempts) / at Bills (however awful the Bills may be, home openers are always dicey) / at Rams (good luck guys) / vs 49ers (whose fans will definitely outnumber Chargers fans for). That smells like 1-3 at best.
Throw in a brutal last five (at Steelers / vs Bengals / at Chiefs (Thurs) / vs Ravens / at those people), to say nothing of the huge roster improvement of one divisional foe (and that foe ain't the Chiefs, and it ain't the raiders), and this just seems like the preseason darling that is going to sh*t the bed this fall.
Which is what I'm projecting.
26. Chicago Bears (NFC Norris).
Projected Record: 7-9-0 Overall / 3-3-0 Division / 5-7-0 Conference.
I actually have the Bears at 6-4 going to Detroit on Turkey Day, before the floor collapses. (The last six is brutal folks -- roadies to the Lions, 49ers and Vikings, plus home games against the Rams and Packers.) I also have the Bears with a better final record than a third place finisher, and a second place finisher, in other divisions. But since I project them to finish last in the NFC Norris, they fall into Tier One.
The compass is pointed north in the Windy City for once. There's a future here worth looking forward to for once.
25. Indianapolis Colts (AFC South).
Projected Record: 8-8-0 Overall / 3-3-0 Division / 6-6-0 Conference.
I have the Indianapolis Colts in a "win and they're in" finale against the Titans. (Hint: they won't win.) If Andrew Luck is healthy, this team will be in the wildcard mix, if not in the hunt for the AFC South. But that's one gigantic big "if".
Tier Two: The Third Place Finishers.
24. Buffalo Bills (AFC East).
Projected Record: 5-11-0 Overall / 3-3-0 Division / 5-7-0 Conference.
At least that Monday Nighter against the Patriots should be fun for their fans. Because not much else this year, will be.
23. Cleveland Browns (AFC Norris).
Projected Record: 8-8-0 Overall / 4-2-0 Division / 6-6-0 Conference.
I have the Browns on the fringe of things for a wild card berth entering December. This team is finally headed in thewrong right direction. I just couldn't find a ninth win for them in the run. And considering some of the wins I gave them, nine really seems like a stretch. But if anybody can pull it off, and obtain a "how the f*ck did this happen?!?!?!" playoff berth a year after rock stinking bottom, it's John Dorsey. (frank gifford voice) We've seen it before. (dan dierdorf voice) Oh yeah!
22. those people (AFC West).
Projected Record: 8-8-0 Overall / 2-4-0 Division / 6-6-0 Conference.
The clusterf*ck at 9-7 / 8-8 in the AFC is so f*cking beautiful I nearly cried watching it play out. Not one, not two, not three, not four, not five, not six, not seven, but eight -- eight! -- AFC squads at 8-8 or 9-7, with a ninth at 7-9, and two more at 10-6. Five of those eleven, are making the playoffs.
Thankfully, one of thosefour five is not going to be those people, the most despicable, indefensible, intolerable, vile, evil, demonic sports franchise to ever be birthed. I despise, and I mean despise, those people so much, I decided two years ago to just give in to the unfiltered hatred, and refuse to even type their name, let alone say it. Sh*t, I don't even use nicknames anymore like "bronkeys" or "unicorns" or "donkeys" or "heaving penises", because that gives them too much respect.
There's a reason why my first task at tailgating every week (after getting the Bus unloaded of course), is to lynch that despicable mascot with his five nooses, stuff that Chiefs pacifier in his demonic face, and slap the Chiefs diaper on him. And that reason is to give each and every fan the ability to let Cinco Noose Donkey know exactly what we think of him and his people. (Hint: his helmet was broken due to a drunken meltdown by someone (cough me cough) after the 2015 defeat to those people.)
Anyways, back to the Poll. If only because a pole is the only thing any female those people fan is even remotely qualified, to work on.
21. Atlanta "Shane" Falcons (NFC South).
Projected Record: 8-8-0 Overall / 3-3-0 Division / 6-6-0 Conference.
Surprise? Somebody has to finish third in the South, and I'm fairly confident it won't be New Orleans, which leaves the "Shane" Falcons and Panthers to battle it out for the "honors". Having six of their last nine (including all three divisional ones) on the road killed their stretch run.
20. Philadelphia Eagles (NFC East).
Projected Record: 8-8-0 Overall / 3-3-0 Division / 6-6-0 Conference.
For those who think I'm nuts for picking the Eagles third, I remind you, I picked them to finish first last year, and win a playoff game once they got there. Find another prognosticator with the foresight to have done that, at this time last season.
The Eagles last four buried them; I have them losing all three roadies in that stretch (Rams, Cowboys, Redskins), to miss the postseason.
19. San Francisco 49ers (NFC West).
Projected Record: 9-7-0 Overall / 4-2-0 Division / 7-5-0 Conference.
The first six are going to kill the 49ers. I have them controlling their own destiny for a wild card berth entering the finale (which I have them losing) despite opening 2-4. Brighter days are ahead for these guys for sure.
18. Minnesota Vikings (NFC Norris).
Projected Record: 9-7-0 Overall / 3-3-0 Division / 6-6-0 Conference.
I have the Vikings beating the 49ers in Week One, hence the higher ranking despite the 49ers superior conference record.
I just ... I can't explain it. There's three teams that everyone seems to love this year that I think are going to regress. One is your "Super" Chargers. The Vikings are the second. I don't like f*cking with chemistry at the quarterback position, that's working. (See Chiefs, 1997-1998). I really don't like f*cking with it for someone outside the building that doesn't know the playbook, doesn't know the culture, doesn't know the franchise. (See Chiefs, 1997-1998).
Week Sixteen wound up being the Vikings kryptonite. If they had won in Week Sixteen, they not only would have made the playoffs, they would have been the three seed as NFC Norris champs.
17. Jacksonville Jaguars (AFC South).
Projected Record: 9-7-0 Overall / 3-3-0 Division / 6-6-0 Conference.
Postseason: AFC Second Wild Card (Sixth Seed Overall).
Every year (or so it seems), some team blindly / drunkenly / stonedly (is that a word?) / by the skin of its' ass, sneaks into the playoffs, by literally losing their way into them. The Titans did it last year, losing three of four. I have two of them doing it this year, one being the Jags.
I have the Jaguars losing three of their last four, and five of their last seven, yet never really being in danger of missing the playoffs (I have the Jags clinching at least a wild card berth in Week Fifteen).
Still, in the AFC, where I have exactly six squads with a winning record, don't sleep on anyone. Anyone can win this thing, save for the Ravens and probably the Jets.
Tier Three: The Second Place Finishers.
16. Miami Dolphins (AFC East).
Projected Record: 7-9-0 Overall / 3-3-0 Division / 6-6-0 Conference.
Someone in this sh*ttacular division has to finish second.
15. Pittsburgh Steelers (AFC Norris).
Projected Record: 8-8-0 Overall / 4-2-0 Division / 6-6-0 Conference.
And this is the third team everyone is hyping, that I don't get the hype for.
I just don't see it. They lose a rock solid offensive coordinator, (al michaels voice) Ben is a year older, LeVeon Bell is holding out, Ryan Shazier can inspire but he can't tackle, and ... I mean, should I go on?
These guys remind me of the 2004 Chiefs, the 2010 Chargers, the 2017 Cowboys -- teams with the talent to make the playoffs, that for a variety of reasons, fail to get there. (Also, teams that indefensibly sh*t the bed at home in the Divisional Round, the year before. Those are the teams that tend to regress the following season. Probably because they're as hung over as I usually am, after a Chiefs "how the hell did this happen?" defeat in January.)
14. oakland raiders (AFC West).
Projected Record: 8-8-0 Overall / 3-3-0 Division / 8-4-0 Conference.
raiders finish ahead of those people via head to head sweep.
I also have the raiders in complete and total control of their own destiny, entering Week Sixteen. Win out and they're in. I project they won't. Which means they're the first team out in the AFC, via tiebreakers that I refuse to try to re-run. (When you have a five way clusterf*ck at 8-8, and strength of victory starts getting tossed around, it's time to call it a day.)
13. Carolina Panthers (NFC South).
Projected Record: 9-7-0 Overall / 3-3-0 Division / 6-6-0 Conference.
I project the finale at New Orleans to not only be a "win and you're in" scenario for both teams, I project that it's a "win and you're the division champs, lose and you miss the playoffs entirely" scenario for both teams.
(My way of saying, I project NBC to flex this one, into the final Sunday night slot.)
A de-facto playoff game to end the season between two hated rivals, who just met in the playoffs last year.
I love this sport sometimes.
12. Green Bay Packers (NFC Norris).
Projected Record: 10-6-0 Overall / 3-3-0 Division / 6-6-0 Conference.
No, I do not have the Green Bay Packers in the playoffs, although in this case, it is entirely their own fault. I have them losing head to head to both wild card teams (which eliminates them, if I read the tiebreaker rules correctly, in a three way tie between teams in three different divisions), and I have the Lions with a better conference record, which costs them the division (again, if I read the tiebreaker rules right, and after doing this schedule run across parts of three days, I'm not re-reading them until December).
I also want to get on record that Mike McCarthy will be the stunning "whoa! Dude got sh*t canned!" firing come December 31st.
11. Houston Texans (AFC South).
Projected Record: 9-7-0 Overall / 3-3-0 Division / 7-5-0 Conference.
Postseason: AFC First Wild Card (Fifth Seed Overall).
Texans earn tiebreaker over the Jaguars via conference record.
I have the Texans winning five of their last six to get in (the sole defeat being at Philly). And all I can say, is that if the Texans get in on a hot streak, with Deshaun Watson fully healthy under center, look out, AFC playoff bracket. Look out.
10. Seattle Seahawks (NFC West).
Projected Record: 10-6-0 Overall / 4-2-0 Division / 7-5-0 Conference.
Postseason: NFC Second Wild Card (Sixth Seed Overall).
I have the Seahawks at 6-5 after a defeat in Carolina. They have four of their last five at home (the roadie is at the 49ers). My way of saying, if the Seahawks are 6-5 entering Week Thirteen, they're going to get to ten wins, and ten wins coupled with the tiebreakers I envision them having (Green Bay and Dallas both travel to Seattle earlier in the season) get them in. Barely.
One last gasp for these guys.
I don't project it's going to last long.
9. Washington Redskins (NFC East).
Projected Record: 10-6-0 Overall / 3-3-0 Division / 8-4-0 Conference.
Postseason: NFC First Wild Card (Fifth Seed Overall).
Say what you want about "Sir" Alex Smith, but the bottom line is that in his time in Kansas City, he averaged 10 wins a season, made the playoffs four out of five years (winning two division titles), and the year the Chiefs missed the postseason, they missed it on tiebreakers.
Why would you expect anything else, because he goes from one reasonably solid roster to another? I don't. The Redskins know what they're trading for. Given that fanbase's expectations, this probably won't end well, but at least it won't begin as a dumpster fire.
Tier Four: The Division Champions.
8. Cincinnati Bengals (AFC Norris).
Projected Record: 9-7-0 Overall / 4-2-0 Division / 7-5-0 Conference.
Postseason: NFC Norris Champions (Fourth Seed Overall).
I have the Bengals at 9-3, at least two games clear of every other projected AFC Division leader, entering Week Fourteen.
I think we can all guess, how this is going to end.
Your AFC Norris Schedule Run:
7. New Orleans Saints (NFC South).
Projected Record: 9-7-0 Overall / 3-3-0 Division / 7-5-0 Conference.
Postseason: NFC South Champions (Fourth Seed Overall).
Saints earn tiebreaker over Panthers via conference record.
I probably have them a win or two too low, to be honest, and probably a seed or two too low as well, but good teams don't give a damn about their seed. They only care about being a seed, to ensure a game or four in January.
And the Saints? Are a damned good team.
Your NFC South Schedule Run:
6. Detroit Lions (NFC Norris).
Projected Record: 10-6-0 Overall / 3-3-0 Division / 7-5-0 Conference.
Postseason: NFC Norris Champions (Third Seed Overall).
Lions win tiebreaker over the Packers via conference record.
Since I have nothing to add, your NFC Norris Schedule Run:
5. Kansas City Chiefs (AFC West).
Projected Record: 10-6-0 Overall / 5-1-0 Division / 8-4-0 Conference.
Postseason: AFC West Champions (Third Seed Overall).
In the interest of full disclosure, I am a Chiefs Season Ticket Member. (Section 132 Represent!) So if you want to yell that the schedule run was rigged? Feel free; nobody's stopping you.
(Or disagreeing with you.)
But also, in the interest of fairness and honesty, if the "Super" Chargers implode early (as they always do), what other outcome is there for the AFC West? I mean sh*t, we did everything but shove the division into the raiders and "Super" Chargers laps last year. The Chiefs dropped five of six, fell into a three way tie at 6-6 with four weeks left, with the raiders and Chargers coming to Arrowhead, where the Chiefs had lost two straight and three of four. We did everything short of waving the white flag, and no other team could step into the void! (The Chiefs pounded the raiders and Chargers, to effectively clinch the division, with two weeks to play.)
Do you think those people are getting to ten wins? I had to stretch to get them to eight! Do you think the raiders are getting to ten wins? I have them at 5-7 with four to play, and before you note the "yeah, but they can beat the Chiefs at home", do I have to go there? I guess I do.
"Fat" Andy Reid coming off a bye week? Is damned near unbeatable.
(He's won his last four exiting a bye, and is 14-3 career the week after the bye.)
Our bye week falls?
The week before the trip to the Bay.
Until I see evidence that one of these other three pretenders is ready to get serious about challenging for the division, the default is your two time defending champ.
Soon to be three time defending champ.
Your AFC West Schedule Run:
4. Dallas Cowboys (NFC East).
Projected Record: 10-6-0 Overall / 4-2-0 Division / 8-4-0 Conference.
Postseason: NFC East Champions (Second Overall Seed).
Cowboys win tiebreaker over Redskins via divisional record.
And here's where one Week One projection -- Cowboys over Panthers -- altered everything in the NFC.
The Cowboys win gives them the two seed and a bye; keeps the Packers out of the playoffs entirely, hands the NFC South to New Orleans, and knocks the Panthers out of the playoffs entirely.
A Carolina win? Gives the Redskins the NFC East and the two seed (I project the Redskins beat the Panthers in Week Six), the Panthers the NFC South and the three seed, and gets the Packers into the playoffs as the six seed.
My head hurts. Here's your NFC East Schedule Run:
3. New England Patriots (AFC East).
Projected Record: 10-6-0 Overall / 4-2-0 Division / 8-4-0 Conference.
Postseason: AFC East Champions (Second Seed Overall).
Patriots win tiebreaker over Chiefs for second seed via Week Six victory.
I think this is the year New England finally regresses to the mean ... but come on. That division is so f*cking awful 6-10 might win it by two games.
Your AFC East Schedule Run:
2. Tennessee Titans (AFC South).
Projected Record: 11-5-0 Overall / 3-3-0 Division / 8-4-0 Conference.
Postseason: AFC South Champions (First Seed Overall).
I'm probably more stunned than you.
Your AFC South Schedule Run:
1. Los Angeles Rams (NFC West).
Projected Record: 11-5-0 Overall / 4-2-0 Division / 8-4-0 Conference.
Postseason: NFC West Champions (First Seed Overall).
I am not even remotely surprised by this. If anything, I'm stunned the Rams topped out at only eleven wins. To say I'm high on this team, is about as grouse an understatement as noting I went through my 20s drunk, my 30s stoned, and I'm paying for my 20s and 30s in my 40s.
Your NFC West Schedule Run:
Finally ...
Tier Five: The Postseason.
Wild Card Round.
* Saturday, January 5, 2019, 3:30pm CT (ESPN / ABC):
5 Houston Texans 31, at 4 Cincinnati Bengals 21.
You betting on the Bengals to win in the postseason? Because I've been there, done that, and refuse to do it again.
* Saturday, January 5, 2019, 7:30pm CT (NBC):
6 Seattle Seahawks 27, at 3 Detroit Lions 41.
Holy hell, Detroit itself might burn to the ground if this result happens. #riotaway
* Sunday, January 6, 2019, noon CT (FOX):
5 Washington Redskins 13, at 4 New Orleans Saints 34.
It was fun while it lasted, 'Skins.
* Sunday, January 6, 2019, 3:30pm CT (CBS):
6 Jacksonville Jaguars 13, 3 Kansas City Chiefs 23.
Speaking of cities that might burn themselves to the ground because the home football team finally won a home playoff game, my home town everybody! Just please spare Waldo, that's all I ask. I kind of like where I live.
Divisional Round.
* Saturday, January 12, 2019, 3:30pm CT (NBC):
3 Kansas City Chiefs 27, at 2 New England Patriots 20.
If The Sanchize can win a divisional round game in Foxboro? If Joe Freaking Flacco can win a conference championship game in Foxboro? Then Patrick Mahomes "Of the Chiefs" can too, god*mmit.
* Saturday, January 12, 2019, 7:30pm (FOX):
4 New Orleans Saints 38, at 1 Los Angeles Rams 41 (OT).
Your de-facto Super Bowl. And it is going to be great to watch.
* Sunday, January 13, 2019, noon CT (CBS):
5 Houston Texans 38, at 1 Tennessee Titans 31.
Watson! Mariota! Texans! Titans! Nantz! Romo! ONLY ... CBS!!!!!
(And about 35 million viewers drooling over every snap.)
* Sunday, January 13, 2019, 3:30pm CT (FOX):
3 Detroit Lions 14, at 2 Dallas Cowboys 31.
I guess that would avenge the 1991 Divisional Round?
Conference Championship Round.
* Sunday, January 20, 2019, 2pm CT (FOX):
2 Dallas Cowboys 27, at 1 Los Angeles Rams 34.
NFC Champions: 1 Los Angeles Rams.
* Sunday, January 20, 2019, 5:30pm CT (CBS):
5 Houston Texans 30, at 3 Kansas City Chiefs 35.
They're gonna have to rename the Sports Complex "Lake Arrowhead" once I'm done crying.
AFC Champions: 3 Kansas City Chiefs.
Super Bowl LIII.
* Sunday, February 3, 2019, 5:20pm CT (CBS).
1 Los Angeles Rams 34, 3 Kansas City Chiefs 24.
Super Bowl Champions: Los Angeles Rams.
The time has come.
To raise the roof,
And have some fun.
Throw away
The work to be done,
And let the music
Play on!
Everybody sing;
Everybody dance.
Lose yourself?
In wild romance!
We're going to party!
Caramba! Fiesta!
Forever!
Come on and sing along!
We're going to party!
Caramba! Fiesta!
Forever!
Come on and sing along!
All night long! (All night!)
All night! (All night!)
All night long! (All night!)
All night! (All night!)
All night long! (All night!)
All night! (All night!)
All night long! (All night!)
All night! (All night!) ...
-- "All Night Long" by Lionel Richie.
--------------------
Welcome to the 2018 NFL Season Predictions Post.
Unlike last year, I'm not splitting this into five pieces, namely because I don't have the time to do it. So here we go, via the Version 1.0 NFL Power Poll for 2018.
Oh, and the schedule runs will appear as the eight division winners appear farther down this post.
(And yes, I know -- I somehow wound up with a 255-257 record. I literally spent an afternoon at work going line by line across sheets to find the error, and I couldn't do it. Also, I should probably note, this is year twenty of me working as a reinsurance accountant across two global and one local reinsurance companies. I am a fairly well known name in the industry (which, in a rarity for me, being fairly well known is a positive). And I couldn't find one error on seventeen lines of a tab despite four hours and multiple formulas (to say nothing of literally printing off each tab and going literally line by line by hand, to try to find said error). I feel you should know that.)
All I can say, is that if you're a fan of the direction the NFL is heading on the field? (And I sure as hell am!) Then you're gonna love the final four matchups, my schedule run came up with.
And I mean LOVE.
Because there isn't a quarterback over the age of 24, in my Final Four.
Tier One: The Last Place Finishers.
32. Baltimore Ravens (AFC Norris).
Projected Finish: 3-13-0 Overall / 0-6-0 Division / 1-11-0 Conference.
This is gonna be a brutal season for the Ravens. So brutal? That I project they will "accomplish" something they have never done in 22 prior years: lose at Arrowhead in a game that counts.
31. Arizona "Super" Cardinals (NFC West).
Projected Record: 3-13-0 Overall / 0-6-0 Division / 1-11-0 Conference.
On the bright side, you got Josh Rosen, my favorite QB in this year's draft. On the down side, you got Josh Rosen, my favorite QB in this year's draft.
30. New York Giants (NFC East).
Projected Record: 4-12-0 Overall / 2-4-0 Division / 4-8-0 Conference.
I give it until about seven minutes left in the second quarter Sunday, before the "Pat Must Go!" chants break out at Fake Giants Stadium. Considering Pat Shurmur never should have been hired, that seems like a conservative guesstimate, on the exact point the fanbase revolts against this indefensible hire.
29. New York Jets (AFC East).
Projected Record: 4-12-0 Overall / 2-4-0 Division / 4-8-0 Conference.
Drafting Browning Nagle Junior (aka Sam Darnold) might finally be my breaking point with this miserable franchise. (Pause). Jesus, I'll never quit these lovable losers.
28. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (NFC South).
Projected Record: 5-11-0 Overall / 3-3-0 Division / 4-8-0 Conference.
Opening 0-5 (as I project the Bucs will do) does nothing to help inspire confidence in the future of this franchise. Much less the present.
27. Los Angeles "Super" Chargers (AFC West).
Projected Record: 6-10-0 Overall / 2-4-0 Division / 4-8-0 Conference.
This team is 4-11 in games that count prior to October 9th the previous three years. Four. And. Eleven.
(In contrast? The Chiefs are 9-5. (We had the early bye (Week 5) in 2016 to account for a one game difference.) The point being? The Chiefs average being two games ahead of these guys at the quarter point of the season, the last three years. Also, the Chiefs owned divisional wins over the Chargers at the quarter point in both 2016 and 2017, as part of those nine wins and eleven Charger defeats, so make it effectively three games up with eleven to play.)
Their head coach is a blithering idiot, their quarterback has more kids (eight at last count) than playoff berths in his career (five at last count), they play in a stadium that freaking Dolphins fans outnumbered Chargers fans in last fall (to say nothing of every other visitor to wherever the hell they play at), and as if all that isn't damning enough ...
They open vs Chiefs (who they haven't beaten in their last eight attempts) / at Bills (however awful the Bills may be, home openers are always dicey) / at Rams (good luck guys) / vs 49ers (whose fans will definitely outnumber Chargers fans for). That smells like 1-3 at best.
Throw in a brutal last five (at Steelers / vs Bengals / at Chiefs (Thurs) / vs Ravens / at those people), to say nothing of the huge roster improvement of one divisional foe (and that foe ain't the Chiefs, and it ain't the raiders), and this just seems like the preseason darling that is going to sh*t the bed this fall.
Which is what I'm projecting.
26. Chicago Bears (NFC Norris).
Projected Record: 7-9-0 Overall / 3-3-0 Division / 5-7-0 Conference.
I actually have the Bears at 6-4 going to Detroit on Turkey Day, before the floor collapses. (The last six is brutal folks -- roadies to the Lions, 49ers and Vikings, plus home games against the Rams and Packers.) I also have the Bears with a better final record than a third place finisher, and a second place finisher, in other divisions. But since I project them to finish last in the NFC Norris, they fall into Tier One.
The compass is pointed north in the Windy City for once. There's a future here worth looking forward to for once.
25. Indianapolis Colts (AFC South).
Projected Record: 8-8-0 Overall / 3-3-0 Division / 6-6-0 Conference.
I have the Indianapolis Colts in a "win and they're in" finale against the Titans. (Hint: they won't win.) If Andrew Luck is healthy, this team will be in the wildcard mix, if not in the hunt for the AFC South. But that's one gigantic big "if".
Tier Two: The Third Place Finishers.
24. Buffalo Bills (AFC East).
Projected Record: 5-11-0 Overall / 3-3-0 Division / 5-7-0 Conference.
At least that Monday Nighter against the Patriots should be fun for their fans. Because not much else this year, will be.
23. Cleveland Browns (AFC Norris).
Projected Record: 8-8-0 Overall / 4-2-0 Division / 6-6-0 Conference.
I have the Browns on the fringe of things for a wild card berth entering December. This team is finally headed in the
22. those people (AFC West).
Projected Record: 8-8-0 Overall / 2-4-0 Division / 6-6-0 Conference.
The clusterf*ck at 9-7 / 8-8 in the AFC is so f*cking beautiful I nearly cried watching it play out. Not one, not two, not three, not four, not five, not six, not seven, but eight -- eight! -- AFC squads at 8-8 or 9-7, with a ninth at 7-9, and two more at 10-6. Five of those eleven, are making the playoffs.
Thankfully, one of those
There's a reason why my first task at tailgating every week (after getting the Bus unloaded of course), is to lynch that despicable mascot with his five nooses, stuff that Chiefs pacifier in his demonic face, and slap the Chiefs diaper on him. And that reason is to give each and every fan the ability to let Cinco Noose Donkey know exactly what we think of him and his people. (Hint: his helmet was broken due to a drunken meltdown by someone (cough me cough) after the 2015 defeat to those people.)
Anyways, back to the Poll. If only because a pole is the only thing any female those people fan is even remotely qualified, to work on.
21. Atlanta "Shane" Falcons (NFC South).
Projected Record: 8-8-0 Overall / 3-3-0 Division / 6-6-0 Conference.
Surprise? Somebody has to finish third in the South, and I'm fairly confident it won't be New Orleans, which leaves the "Shane" Falcons and Panthers to battle it out for the "honors". Having six of their last nine (including all three divisional ones) on the road killed their stretch run.
20. Philadelphia Eagles (NFC East).
Projected Record: 8-8-0 Overall / 3-3-0 Division / 6-6-0 Conference.
For those who think I'm nuts for picking the Eagles third, I remind you, I picked them to finish first last year, and win a playoff game once they got there. Find another prognosticator with the foresight to have done that, at this time last season.
The Eagles last four buried them; I have them losing all three roadies in that stretch (Rams, Cowboys, Redskins), to miss the postseason.
19. San Francisco 49ers (NFC West).
Projected Record: 9-7-0 Overall / 4-2-0 Division / 7-5-0 Conference.
The first six are going to kill the 49ers. I have them controlling their own destiny for a wild card berth entering the finale (which I have them losing) despite opening 2-4. Brighter days are ahead for these guys for sure.
18. Minnesota Vikings (NFC Norris).
Projected Record: 9-7-0 Overall / 3-3-0 Division / 6-6-0 Conference.
I have the Vikings beating the 49ers in Week One, hence the higher ranking despite the 49ers superior conference record.
I just ... I can't explain it. There's three teams that everyone seems to love this year that I think are going to regress. One is your "Super" Chargers. The Vikings are the second. I don't like f*cking with chemistry at the quarterback position, that's working. (See Chiefs, 1997-1998). I really don't like f*cking with it for someone outside the building that doesn't know the playbook, doesn't know the culture, doesn't know the franchise. (See Chiefs, 1997-1998).
Week Sixteen wound up being the Vikings kryptonite. If they had won in Week Sixteen, they not only would have made the playoffs, they would have been the three seed as NFC Norris champs.
17. Jacksonville Jaguars (AFC South).
Projected Record: 9-7-0 Overall / 3-3-0 Division / 6-6-0 Conference.
Postseason: AFC Second Wild Card (Sixth Seed Overall).
Every year (or so it seems), some team blindly / drunkenly / stonedly (is that a word?) / by the skin of its' ass, sneaks into the playoffs, by literally losing their way into them. The Titans did it last year, losing three of four. I have two of them doing it this year, one being the Jags.
I have the Jaguars losing three of their last four, and five of their last seven, yet never really being in danger of missing the playoffs (I have the Jags clinching at least a wild card berth in Week Fifteen).
Still, in the AFC, where I have exactly six squads with a winning record, don't sleep on anyone. Anyone can win this thing, save for the Ravens and probably the Jets.
Tier Three: The Second Place Finishers.
16. Miami Dolphins (AFC East).
Projected Record: 7-9-0 Overall / 3-3-0 Division / 6-6-0 Conference.
Someone in this sh*ttacular division has to finish second.
15. Pittsburgh Steelers (AFC Norris).
Projected Record: 8-8-0 Overall / 4-2-0 Division / 6-6-0 Conference.
And this is the third team everyone is hyping, that I don't get the hype for.
I just don't see it. They lose a rock solid offensive coordinator, (al michaels voice) Ben is a year older, LeVeon Bell is holding out, Ryan Shazier can inspire but he can't tackle, and ... I mean, should I go on?
These guys remind me of the 2004 Chiefs, the 2010 Chargers, the 2017 Cowboys -- teams with the talent to make the playoffs, that for a variety of reasons, fail to get there. (Also, teams that indefensibly sh*t the bed at home in the Divisional Round, the year before. Those are the teams that tend to regress the following season. Probably because they're as hung over as I usually am, after a Chiefs "how the hell did this happen?" defeat in January.)
14. oakland raiders (AFC West).
Projected Record: 8-8-0 Overall / 3-3-0 Division / 8-4-0 Conference.
raiders finish ahead of those people via head to head sweep.
I also have the raiders in complete and total control of their own destiny, entering Week Sixteen. Win out and they're in. I project they won't. Which means they're the first team out in the AFC, via tiebreakers that I refuse to try to re-run. (When you have a five way clusterf*ck at 8-8, and strength of victory starts getting tossed around, it's time to call it a day.)
13. Carolina Panthers (NFC South).
Projected Record: 9-7-0 Overall / 3-3-0 Division / 6-6-0 Conference.
I project the finale at New Orleans to not only be a "win and you're in" scenario for both teams, I project that it's a "win and you're the division champs, lose and you miss the playoffs entirely" scenario for both teams.
(My way of saying, I project NBC to flex this one, into the final Sunday night slot.)
A de-facto playoff game to end the season between two hated rivals, who just met in the playoffs last year.
I love this sport sometimes.
12. Green Bay Packers (NFC Norris).
Projected Record: 10-6-0 Overall / 3-3-0 Division / 6-6-0 Conference.
No, I do not have the Green Bay Packers in the playoffs, although in this case, it is entirely their own fault. I have them losing head to head to both wild card teams (which eliminates them, if I read the tiebreaker rules correctly, in a three way tie between teams in three different divisions), and I have the Lions with a better conference record, which costs them the division (again, if I read the tiebreaker rules right, and after doing this schedule run across parts of three days, I'm not re-reading them until December).
I also want to get on record that Mike McCarthy will be the stunning "whoa! Dude got sh*t canned!" firing come December 31st.
11. Houston Texans (AFC South).
Projected Record: 9-7-0 Overall / 3-3-0 Division / 7-5-0 Conference.
Postseason: AFC First Wild Card (Fifth Seed Overall).
Texans earn tiebreaker over the Jaguars via conference record.
I have the Texans winning five of their last six to get in (the sole defeat being at Philly). And all I can say, is that if the Texans get in on a hot streak, with Deshaun Watson fully healthy under center, look out, AFC playoff bracket. Look out.
10. Seattle Seahawks (NFC West).
Projected Record: 10-6-0 Overall / 4-2-0 Division / 7-5-0 Conference.
Postseason: NFC Second Wild Card (Sixth Seed Overall).
I have the Seahawks at 6-5 after a defeat in Carolina. They have four of their last five at home (the roadie is at the 49ers). My way of saying, if the Seahawks are 6-5 entering Week Thirteen, they're going to get to ten wins, and ten wins coupled with the tiebreakers I envision them having (Green Bay and Dallas both travel to Seattle earlier in the season) get them in. Barely.
One last gasp for these guys.
I don't project it's going to last long.
9. Washington Redskins (NFC East).
Projected Record: 10-6-0 Overall / 3-3-0 Division / 8-4-0 Conference.
Postseason: NFC First Wild Card (Fifth Seed Overall).
Say what you want about "Sir" Alex Smith, but the bottom line is that in his time in Kansas City, he averaged 10 wins a season, made the playoffs four out of five years (winning two division titles), and the year the Chiefs missed the postseason, they missed it on tiebreakers.
Why would you expect anything else, because he goes from one reasonably solid roster to another? I don't. The Redskins know what they're trading for. Given that fanbase's expectations, this probably won't end well, but at least it won't begin as a dumpster fire.
Tier Four: The Division Champions.
8. Cincinnati Bengals (AFC Norris).
Projected Record: 9-7-0 Overall / 4-2-0 Division / 7-5-0 Conference.
Postseason: NFC Norris Champions (Fourth Seed Overall).
I have the Bengals at 9-3, at least two games clear of every other projected AFC Division leader, entering Week Fourteen.
I think we can all guess, how this is going to end.
Your AFC Norris Schedule Run:
7. New Orleans Saints (NFC South).
Projected Record: 9-7-0 Overall / 3-3-0 Division / 7-5-0 Conference.
Postseason: NFC South Champions (Fourth Seed Overall).
Saints earn tiebreaker over Panthers via conference record.
I probably have them a win or two too low, to be honest, and probably a seed or two too low as well, but good teams don't give a damn about their seed. They only care about being a seed, to ensure a game or four in January.
And the Saints? Are a damned good team.
Your NFC South Schedule Run:
6. Detroit Lions (NFC Norris).
Projected Record: 10-6-0 Overall / 3-3-0 Division / 7-5-0 Conference.
Postseason: NFC Norris Champions (Third Seed Overall).
Lions win tiebreaker over the Packers via conference record.
Since I have nothing to add, your NFC Norris Schedule Run:
5. Kansas City Chiefs (AFC West).
Projected Record: 10-6-0 Overall / 5-1-0 Division / 8-4-0 Conference.
Postseason: AFC West Champions (Third Seed Overall).
In the interest of full disclosure, I am a Chiefs Season Ticket Member. (Section 132 Represent!) So if you want to yell that the schedule run was rigged? Feel free; nobody's stopping you.
(Or disagreeing with you.)
But also, in the interest of fairness and honesty, if the "Super" Chargers implode early (as they always do), what other outcome is there for the AFC West? I mean sh*t, we did everything but shove the division into the raiders and "Super" Chargers laps last year. The Chiefs dropped five of six, fell into a three way tie at 6-6 with four weeks left, with the raiders and Chargers coming to Arrowhead, where the Chiefs had lost two straight and three of four. We did everything short of waving the white flag, and no other team could step into the void! (The Chiefs pounded the raiders and Chargers, to effectively clinch the division, with two weeks to play.)
Do you think those people are getting to ten wins? I had to stretch to get them to eight! Do you think the raiders are getting to ten wins? I have them at 5-7 with four to play, and before you note the "yeah, but they can beat the Chiefs at home", do I have to go there? I guess I do.
"Fat" Andy Reid coming off a bye week? Is damned near unbeatable.
(He's won his last four exiting a bye, and is 14-3 career the week after the bye.)
Our bye week falls?
The week before the trip to the Bay.
Until I see evidence that one of these other three pretenders is ready to get serious about challenging for the division, the default is your two time defending champ.
Soon to be three time defending champ.
Your AFC West Schedule Run:
4. Dallas Cowboys (NFC East).
Projected Record: 10-6-0 Overall / 4-2-0 Division / 8-4-0 Conference.
Postseason: NFC East Champions (Second Overall Seed).
Cowboys win tiebreaker over Redskins via divisional record.
And here's where one Week One projection -- Cowboys over Panthers -- altered everything in the NFC.
The Cowboys win gives them the two seed and a bye; keeps the Packers out of the playoffs entirely, hands the NFC South to New Orleans, and knocks the Panthers out of the playoffs entirely.
A Carolina win? Gives the Redskins the NFC East and the two seed (I project the Redskins beat the Panthers in Week Six), the Panthers the NFC South and the three seed, and gets the Packers into the playoffs as the six seed.
My head hurts. Here's your NFC East Schedule Run:
3. New England Patriots (AFC East).
Projected Record: 10-6-0 Overall / 4-2-0 Division / 8-4-0 Conference.
Postseason: AFC East Champions (Second Seed Overall).
Patriots win tiebreaker over Chiefs for second seed via Week Six victory.
I think this is the year New England finally regresses to the mean ... but come on. That division is so f*cking awful 6-10 might win it by two games.
Your AFC East Schedule Run:
2. Tennessee Titans (AFC South).
Projected Record: 11-5-0 Overall / 3-3-0 Division / 8-4-0 Conference.
Postseason: AFC South Champions (First Seed Overall).
I'm probably more stunned than you.
Your AFC South Schedule Run:
1. Los Angeles Rams (NFC West).
Projected Record: 11-5-0 Overall / 4-2-0 Division / 8-4-0 Conference.
Postseason: NFC West Champions (First Seed Overall).
I am not even remotely surprised by this. If anything, I'm stunned the Rams topped out at only eleven wins. To say I'm high on this team, is about as grouse an understatement as noting I went through my 20s drunk, my 30s stoned, and I'm paying for my 20s and 30s in my 40s.
Your NFC West Schedule Run:
Finally ...
Tier Five: The Postseason.
Wild Card Round.
* Saturday, January 5, 2019, 3:30pm CT (ESPN / ABC):
5 Houston Texans 31, at 4 Cincinnati Bengals 21.
You betting on the Bengals to win in the postseason? Because I've been there, done that, and refuse to do it again.
* Saturday, January 5, 2019, 7:30pm CT (NBC):
6 Seattle Seahawks 27, at 3 Detroit Lions 41.
Holy hell, Detroit itself might burn to the ground if this result happens. #riotaway
* Sunday, January 6, 2019, noon CT (FOX):
5 Washington Redskins 13, at 4 New Orleans Saints 34.
It was fun while it lasted, 'Skins.
* Sunday, January 6, 2019, 3:30pm CT (CBS):
6 Jacksonville Jaguars 13, 3 Kansas City Chiefs 23.
Speaking of cities that might burn themselves to the ground because the home football team finally won a home playoff game, my home town everybody! Just please spare Waldo, that's all I ask. I kind of like where I live.
Divisional Round.
* Saturday, January 12, 2019, 3:30pm CT (NBC):
3 Kansas City Chiefs 27, at 2 New England Patriots 20.
If The Sanchize can win a divisional round game in Foxboro? If Joe Freaking Flacco can win a conference championship game in Foxboro? Then Patrick Mahomes "Of the Chiefs" can too, god*mmit.
* Saturday, January 12, 2019, 7:30pm (FOX):
4 New Orleans Saints 38, at 1 Los Angeles Rams 41 (OT).
Your de-facto Super Bowl. And it is going to be great to watch.
* Sunday, January 13, 2019, noon CT (CBS):
5 Houston Texans 38, at 1 Tennessee Titans 31.
Watson! Mariota! Texans! Titans! Nantz! Romo! ONLY ... CBS!!!!!
(And about 35 million viewers drooling over every snap.)
* Sunday, January 13, 2019, 3:30pm CT (FOX):
3 Detroit Lions 14, at 2 Dallas Cowboys 31.
I guess that would avenge the 1991 Divisional Round?
Conference Championship Round.
* Sunday, January 20, 2019, 2pm CT (FOX):
2 Dallas Cowboys 27, at 1 Los Angeles Rams 34.
NFC Champions: 1 Los Angeles Rams.
* Sunday, January 20, 2019, 5:30pm CT (CBS):
5 Houston Texans 30, at 3 Kansas City Chiefs 35.
They're gonna have to rename the Sports Complex "Lake Arrowhead" once I'm done crying.
AFC Champions: 3 Kansas City Chiefs.
Super Bowl LIII.
* Sunday, February 3, 2019, 5:20pm CT (CBS).
1 Los Angeles Rams 34, 3 Kansas City Chiefs 24.
Super Bowl Champions: Los Angeles Rams.
Thursday, November 26, 2015
the afc, with six weeks to go ...
“Let’s
all pack up, and move this year.
Let’s
slip the liars, and disappear.
Leave
memories? For auctioneers.
And
those just standing still.
They’ll
miss the taste of wanting you;
Call
out your name like I still do!
But
they haven’t said? A word that’s true!
And
they only? Hold you down.
And this heartbreak world,
Of just imagine?
With
tired talk
Of
better days?
In this
heartbreak world,
Where
nothing matters?
Come on
– let’s make this dream
That’s
barely half awake?
Come
true! …”
--------------------
Or, to
put things more “Stevo Style”:
"Give
the Royals this -- they NEVER give up.
They NEVER quit! Unlike that
f*cking failure of a franchise across the parking lot!" -- me, Monday,
October 12, 2015.
--------------------
Almost
exactly twenty four hours before I dropped that comment (said while watching
the eighth inning rally to force Game Five against the Astros), the Chiefs had yet again found a way to snatch defeat out of the jaws of victory.
Specifically, they'd blown a two touchdown lead in the
fourth quarter, for the second straight home game.
Even more specifically, for the second straight home game? The
Chiefs gave up the winning points inside of a minute to play, due to
questionable (and arguably fireable) mistakes by "Fat" Andy Reid that
directly cost his team the victory. (The
"what in the world are you thinking" handoff to 25 against denver;
the "what in the f*cking bluest of blue f*cking hells are you
thinking?!?!?!?!" decision to not use his timeouts against the Bears.)
Even
more damning than the previous collapse against the denver broncos? Is that this one occurred against the Chicago
Bears, a team that entered at 1-3, probably should have been 0-4 (they barely
beat the oakland raiders in Week Four, 22-20), and had just set a NFL record
the prior week by not only failing to cross the Seahawks 43 yard line at any
point of their 26-0 "assume the position because we're taking the
business!" defeat to the Seattle Seahawks?
Every
single possession ended in a punt! Ten
possessions, ten punts! And not a single play run in field goal range, even at fake mile high!
Somehow,
that team rolls into Arrowhead, drops two touchdowns on the Chiefs in the last four minutes
of the game, and wins when "Fat" Andy's most recent "seriously,
is this guy mentally retarded" brain fart -- attempting a 65 yard field
goal into the wind! -- predictably and epically failed.
Oh, and did I mention, every sane, rational person assumed that the season was over not only because the Chiefs were 1-4, L4 ... but the franchise, Jamaal Charles, was carted off the field early in the second half, his season and (possibly) his career, over.
Halloween
was still three weeks away, yet for all intents and purposes, the Chiefs season
was over.
Pretty much before it began.
--------------------
And
now, here we sit, three weeks after Halloween, and the season is not only
"not over", it's "so f*cking on" that even I am in utter
shock and awe, at how quickly things turned around. Six weeks ago the Chiefs looked hopeless. Now, every Chiefs fan has hope. And with good reason.
Consider
the opportunity the Chiefs have in front of them this weekend. And folks?
Hang on, we barely have a year of the lovable ol' guy left to enjoy him,
so peoples and peepettes? Vice President
Biden.
(vice
president biden voice) Folks! The Chiefs
opportunity this weekend is huge! A
three letter word -- huge! H U G E Huge!
Thank
you sir. You? I'll miss. Joe? Stand up Joe, let 'em see you!
--------------------
In all
seriousness, you can make a legitimate argument this week's game against the
Bills is the defining moment of the "Fat" Andy Reid era. Will it be an era, or an error? I'd argue we're gonna learn a lot about what
2016, 2017, and 2018 are going to look like, come 3:30pm CT on November 29th.
To say
nothing of what the ending to 2015 entails.
The
Chiefs currently occupy the second wildcard slot / last team in position, at
5-5. They are 4-2 in the conference,
which is not only huge for tiebreaker purposes, but it means anyone who didn't
learn to add via Common Core can deduce every game remaining for the Chiefs, is
against a conference foe. Which, again,
leads a person with an IQ north of room temperature to conclude that the Chiefs
are going to wind up holding that tiebreaker, because in order to make the
playoffs, they have to win more conference games.
There
currently are three teams tied with the Chiefs at 5-5 for the "transfer
slot", to use a NASCAR phrase. The
Jets are 5-5. The Texans are 5-5. And the Bills are 5-5. And since I think that they're very vulnerable,
the only team ahead of the Chiefs in the wildcard race, the Steelers, are 6-4.
There
also are three teams that sit a game behind the Chiefs at 4-6, one of whom will
more than get their crack at the Red and Gold down the stretch -- the raiders,
the Jaguars, and the Dolphins.
(I
should note, the Ravens at 3-7 are very much alive, but they need to win out --
or take five of six, with the loss coming to Seattle -- to have any
chance. We’ll deal with that, when we
get to the Steelers portion of this post.)
So
let's break this down, one at a time ...
--------------------
(julie
chen voice) But first!
There
are three playoff slots in play, if we're being honest*. You not only have both wildcard slots up for
grabs, but some f*cked up and flawed team is going to win the AFC South and
host one of these other teams in a playoff game.
It's
time to figure out who, exactly, those three teams will be.
We'll
go in reverse order of the contenders, beginning with …
--------------------
(*: this is an abject bullsh*t lie. There are four in play, if New England and
Kansas City simply (coach asshat voice) “Do your job! Just do your job, and we will win this game!”,
on Sunday.)
--------------------
* The
Miami Dolphins.
Current
Record: 4-6 overall / 2-5 conference.
Head to
Head Tiebreaker(s) Held: Texans.
Head to
Head Tiebreaker(s) Lost: Jaguars, Bills, Jets.
Remaining
Schedule: at Jets / vs Ravens / vs Giants (MNF) / at Chargers / vs Colts / vs
Patriots.
Thoughts:
if they lose Sunday, it's over. The
Bills already swept Miami, the Jets won the first contest, and the 'Fins still
have three division leaders left on the home schedule. If they lose yet another tiebreaker for good,
it's over.
Furthermore,
let's just address the Captain Oats in the room, shall we? The Dolphins have beaten the 'Skins (season
opener), the Eagles (with The Sanchize under center), the Titans (tied for the
worst record in football), and the Texans (aka "The Outlier
Victory"). They've beaten NOBODY
with a winning record!
Hell, they not
only haven't beaten anyone with a better than 22.46% chance of playing after
January 3rd, they've been tuned by every decent team on the schedule! The Patriots beat them by 30. The Bills swept them, winning by 16 and 27. The Jets blew them out so badly that the
Dolphins promptly sh*t canned their head coach the following day. The Cowboys entered last week having lost
seven in a row. They destroyed Miami in
Miami.
We all
know how this is going to play out. And
it will not be pretty for the Miami Mammals.
Gut
Feeling on Final Standing: 5-11, out of the playoffs. The win will be against the San Diego "Super" Chargers ... in what might be the final professional football game played in
San Diego.
--------------------
* The
Jacksonville Jaguars.
Current
Record: 4-6 overall / 4-4 conference.
Head to
Head Tiebreaker(s) Held: Dolphins, Bills.
Head to
Head Tiebreaker(s) Lost: Colts, Texans, Jets.
Remaining
Schedule: vs Chargers / at Titans / vs Colts / vs Falcons / at Saints / at Texans.
Thoughts:
am I certifiably insane ... or just semi-retarded? Because I see a very, very, very manageable
path to 9-7 in there -- if not 10-6.
They'll be favored in three of the next four, and the one they're likely
to be a dog in (Indy at home) is not only very winnable, I think they will win
that game, irregardless of who is under center for the Colts.
Furthermore,
let's just address the Captain Oats in the room, shall we? This is one of two teams (along with the
Chiefs) fighting for a playoff berth, that keeps getting demonstratively better
every week. They've won 3 out of 4, with
their only loss being a justifiable five point defeat at the Fake Meadowlands
to a (probably) better Jets team. Blake
Bortles has made enormous strides this year.
The defense is capable of holding any team to 17 or less. They're well coached, well-schemed,
well-prepared every week. What's not to like?
Gut
Feeling on Final Standing: 8-8, in the clusterf*ck for the six seed. But I can absolutely be talked into 9-7, AFC
South Champions.
--------------------
* The
oakland raiders.
Current
Record: 4-6 overall / 4-3 conference.
Head to
Head Tiebreaker(s) Held: Jets.
Head to
Head Tiebreaker(s) Lost: Steelers.
Remaining
Schedule: at Titans / vs Chiefs / at broncos / vs Packers / vs Chargers / at
Chiefs.
Thoughts:
they are going to look back at last week's choke job in Detroit, and need to
vomit, when this season is over, because that's the defeat that doomed them.
Furthermore,
let's just address the Captain Oats in the room, shall we? Does anyone actually think the oakland
raiders can close 5-1, with the only loss being to the Packers (since that's
the only one they can, in theory, afford to lose)? This is a team that just p*ssed away a lead
to the Lions, has beaten nobody with a record above .500, has been throttled at
home by 20 (Cincinnati) and nearly 20 (Minnesota), and is entering Sunday's
roadie on a three game losing streak.
Gut
Feeling on Final Standing: 7-9, out of the playoffs. They'll upset denver**, and beat Tennessee and
San Diego.
--------------------
(**: that projected upset -- namely, whether or not it occurs -- will decide who wins the AFC West. On December 13? We are ALL raiders!)
--------------------
* The
New York Jets.
Current
Record: 5-5 overall / 4-4 conference.
Head to
Head Tiebreaker(s) Held: Colts, Dolphins, Jaguars.
Head to
Head Tiebreaker(s) Lost: Bills, Texans, raiders.
Remaining
Schedule: vs Dolphins / at Giants / vs Titans / at Cowboys (Sat) / vs Patriots
/ at Bills.
Thoughts:
they're in deep, deep trouble. That
final three, my God. Do you see a win in
any of those three? Because I don't. They're not beating the Patriots, unless the
Pats have nothing to play for and rest the starters. And news flash for ya non-Jets fans out
there: if you think Bill Belichick is going to lay down for the Jets? You don't know football.
Furthermore,
let's just address the Captain Oats in the room, shall we? Does anyone really think Ryan Fitzpatrick is
going to lead this team to a 4-2 finish (or 5-1, given their tiebreaker issues)
to grab one of the two wildcard berths?
Ryan Fitzpatrick, who just had surgery ten days ago, has already bombed
out as the Bills QB, and who was so atrocious in Houston that Bill O'Brien
opted for Ryan Mallett over him, and last time I checked, Ryan Mallett is out
of the league and probably not getting an invite back.
Gut
Feeling on Final Standing: 7-9, out of the playoffs. They’ll get upset by Tennessee, to kick off a
four game losing streak, to end the season.
--------------------
* The
Houston Texans.
Current
Record: 5-5 overall / 4-3 conference.
Head to
Head Tiebreaker(s) Held: Jaguars, Jets.
Head to
Head Tiebreaker(s) Lost: Chiefs, Dolphins.
Remaining
Schedule: vs Saints / at Bills / vs Patriots / at Colts / at Titans / vs
Jaguars.
Thoughts:
where’s the layup? They face five squads
battling for the postseason lives in their last six – all but the Titans, who
even in the God-awful AFC South, are drawing dead with six to play. (I know, I know – they’re as close to first
place as the Chiefs are … but the Titans are 0-6 in the conference. They’re done.)
Furthermore,
let’s just address the Captain Oats in the room, shall we? Does anyone really think Brian Hoyer is going
to lead this team to a 4-2 / 5-1 finish to
grab one of the two wildcard berths (via 4-2) or the AFC South (via 5-1)?
Brian Hoyer, who was benched in the opener for a dude no longer in the
League (Ryan Mallett), who couldn’t beat out “insert sh*tty ass QB here” in
Cleveland for the starters gig, and hasn’t beaten a team with a winning record
since Noah was mocked for building a boat, because nobody on Earth knew what
the hell this thing called “rain” was.
(Note: that last item might be a slight exaggeration.)
Gut
Feeling on Final Standing: 7-9, out of the playoffs. They'll beat the Saints and Titans. I think.
--------------------
* The
Indianapolis Colts.
Current
Record: 5-5 overall / 4-3 conference.
Head to
Head Tiebreaker(s) Held: Texans, Jaguars.
Head to
Head Tiebreaker(s) Lost: Bills, Jets.
Remaining
Schedule: vs Bucs / at Steelers (NBC) / at Jaguars / vs Texans / at Dolphins /
vs Titans.
Thoughts:
provided they take care of business at home, the Colts are in decent shape to
at least grab one of the two wildcard slots.
They have a decent conference record, currently own every tiebreaker needed to
win the South, and if they split with Jacksonville and Houston down the
stretch, they'll probably win the division by at least a game, if not three.
Furthermore,
let's just address the Captain Oats in the room, shall we? If there's one place no team wants to travel
for the wildcard round, it's Indy, right?
I mean, I know a good number of you reading this have attended a Chiefs/ Colts playoff game in that place, be it in 2006 or 2013. That stadium?
Is a freaking nuthouse. As a
Chiefs fan, I don't want any part of Indianapolis -- anywhere, anytime,
anyplace. They've already used us as
their own personal urinal four painful times in the last twenty years (1995,
2003, 2006, 2013), and if you want to get technical, they've ended five
different Chiefs seasons in that time frame (the Week Sixteen 1996 victory cost
the Chiefs the playoffs).
I
really have no desire to spend the first weekend of my 39th year of existence
having to travel to that lunatic asylum.
I
honestly think I'd prefer to open in denver.
I'll grant you, the odds of my being arrested at fake mile high are
astronomical. I hate those assholes
disguised as fans so damned much -- one in particular -- that I highly doubt I
could control my emotions. But at least
the Chiefs can beat the donkeys. They're
oh for my lifetime, at beating Indy when it counts.
If the
Chiefs are going to exercise only one playoff demon this year? Let it be denver.
Gut
Feeling on Final Standing: 9-7, AFC South Champions.
--------------------
* The
Buffalo Bills.
Current
Record: 5-5 overall / 5-4 conference.
Head to
Head Tiebreaker(s) Held: Colts, Dolphins, Jets.
Head to
Head Tiebreaker(s) Lost: Jaguars.
Remaining
Schedule: at Chiefs / vs Texans / at Eagles / at Redskins / vs Cowboys / vs
Jets.
Thoughts:
who the hell did this squad p*ss off royally in the League office, to get a
schedule like their second half? Five
out of six on the road? And those five
are (in order) at Jets (W) / at Patriots (L) / at Chiefs / at Eagles / at
Redskins, every single squad of which is at least within a game of owning a
postseason berth with six to play?
Furthermore,
let’s just address the Captain Oats in the room, shall we? They’ve played ONE non-con game so far (a
loss to the Giants to open October).
Even if they sweep all three conference games remaining (and they damned
well could), they’re still looking at 8-4 as a conference ceiling. Unless they win out? They’re probably drawing dead for the five
seed, and the privilege of rolling whoever wins the AFC South 45-13 to open the
playoffs at 3:30pm CT on January 9th.
Which means their ceiling is what, opening at denver to close down Wild
Card Weekend?
Gut
Feeling on Final Standing: 8-8, in the clusterf*ck for the six seed. They’ll beat the Texans, the ‘Skins, and the
Jets.
--------------------
* The
Pittsburgh Steelers.
Current
Record: 6-4 overall / 3-4 conference.
Head to
Head Tiebreaker(s) Held: raiders.
Head to
Head Tiebreaker(s) Lost: Chiefs.
Remaining
Schedule: at Seahawks (FOX) / vs Colts (NBC) / at Bengals / vs broncos (CBS) /
at Ravens (NBC) / at Browns.
Thoughts:
that of every team either in as of today, or within a game of being in as of
today, the Steelers are in the worst shape of everyone? Despite having the best record of the
contenders at this point? Their only
tiebreaker they have is over oakland, and if there’s a five or six way
clusterf*ck at .500 for the six seed, will that one actually matter?
Furthermore,
let’s just address the Captain Oats in the room, shall we? The counter-balance to the previous paragraph
is that NO team benefits more from Joe Flacco’s season-ending injury than the
Steelers. Here’s what the Ravens had
left: at Browns (ESPN) / at Dolphins / vs Seahawks (NBC) / vs Chiefs / vs
Steelers (NBC) / at Bengals.
The way
the Ravens had been going? I absolutely
could have seen them entering that Bengals game at 8-7 (they’re currently 3-7),
on a six game winning streak, facing a “win and you’re in” situation against a
Bengals team with nothing to play for.
Look at
that remaining schedule for Pittsburgh.
You find me a layup win in there.
Four teams either currently in, or within a game of being in. All three divisional road games, plus a
roadie this week to the two time defending NFC Champs.
If the
Steelers get in? They’ll not only have
MORE than earned it? They will be the
team, NO sane team will want to face.
Because
if they can go 4-2 or better against this stretch run?
They’re
capable of beating anyone.
Gut
Feeling on Final Standing: 8-8, in the clusterf*ck for the six seed. They'll win the two at home, lose all four on
the road.
--------------------
That's
a look at the non-Chiefs contenders. My
gut reaction says the Colts will win the South.
The Jags, Bills,and Steelers will all wind up 8-8 (although I really
want to go back and change Jacksonville to 9-7, and let the tiebreakers figure
out who wins the South and who gets the six between them and Indy, the more I
think about it.) The raiders, Texans,
and Jets will all look back at indefensible losses (to, respectively, the
Lions, Dolphins, and Titans) as the reason they finish one back at 7-9.
And
that leaves one contender for those three spots in the AFC Postseason Field ***, to determine the outcome for.
--------------------
(***: again, an abject bullsh*t lie. The donkeys still have the Pats, Bengals, and
raiders at home, and the Steelers on the road.
The AFC West is far, far, far, from over. And every fan of satan’s squad? Knows it.)
--------------------
Coming up in Part Dos ... to be posted about an hour from now ... a look at the last contender, and something this site hasn't seen in well over a year.
Happy Turkey Day everybody!
Saturday, July 26, 2008
classic: end to the 2006 regular season
sk: enjoy.
--------------------
The good news: We're in! We're in! Season still on!
The bad news: I get to recap another game! No, wait, that's actually a good thing. So really, there is no bad news to report ...
So I got home Sunday with about 9 minutes remaining in the 3rd quarter of the 49ers game. I fire up the TV, and this is the first thing I hear:
(moose johnston) It was real interesting. When we talked with mike shanahan this week, he said he wanted Kansas City to win, to keep the pressure on his own team.
(curt menafee) He definitely didn't want his team to back into the playoffs.
We all know that I have a (brett voice) "vivid imagination". But not even I could have written a script as beautiful as this.
The Chiefs win, at home, in the snow, behind a power rushing attack, the most un-freaking-believable blocked punt / touchdown I have ever seen, and three absolutely brilliant, awe-inspiring play calls by the worst offensive coordinator in franchise history. (Actually, four, but one I credit to Herm. As always, more below ...)
The Patriots, in a game that meant absolutely nothing to them, roll into Nashville, drop a 40 spot on the Titans, and even run up the score by having 92 year old Vinny Testaverde throw a touchdown for the 20th consecutive year.
The Steelers, in a game that meant absolutely nothing to them, go into Cincinnati, fumble away a sure touchdown, allow a 47 yard pass completion with less than a minute left to set up what should have been a gimme field goal for the Bengals ... and then drop a 67 yard bomb of their own on the Bengals to start overtime, and keep hope alive for Arrowhead Nation.
My prayer entering the day, was that the denver game would actually matter for us. Wish granted. But thankfully, God didn't stop there when giving Steve his 30th birthday present.
Because the 6-9 49ers, who had beaten exactly one team with a winning record all season (the Seahawks), who had already lost by 41 (at KC), 29 (vs SD), 31 (at Chi), and 24 (vs NO), who had been swept by the mighty Arizona Cardinals, and who had nothing at all to play for other than "we're here, so what the hell, let's take the field". The 49ers spot my most hated franchise in sports a 13 point lead via a back breaking pick six right before halftime.
And then score 20 unanswered points, and tack on two more field goals, the latter set up by a brilliant QB block on Pro Bowl safety john "Iate hit" lynch, to win at denver, and complete arguably the most amazing four team parlay in NFL history.
You wanted KC to win, mike? You got it.
Chiefs 35, Jaguars 30.
You didn't want to back into the playoffs, mike? You got it.
denver's next opponent: TBD, week 1, 2007 regular season.
Chiefs next opponent: at Colts, 3:30pm Saturday, 2006 playoffs!!!
The only "backing into" anything that'll occur for your broncos this week, mike, involves a dead cornerback, a coffin, and a hole in the ground. Have fun with that.
Holy sh*t. Somehow, someway, we're alive! Season still freaking on! Without question, the single greatest NFL Sunday of my lifetime. I truly don't know where to begin. But I know what I'll be doing come 3:30 on Saturday afternoon ... and happily, its the same thing mike shanarat and his collection of bullet-riddled donkeys will be doing: watching the postseason on television!
* I was so confident of our chances of making the playoffs, that I drove on Sunday, because, and I actually said this on Sunday morning, "I want to lose this game". (Long story, but its a stupid Steve superstition). I'd given up. I wanted to tank the game for draft positioning, I was so sure denver would win. The lesson, as always: if I am THAT confident about something, its not going to happen.
* When I went to the grocery store to get chips and backup bloody mary mix at about 6:45am, the temp deal in the car said 54 degrees. On the drive home after the game, it said 28. Its always a bad sign, when the warmest it gets, is when you first wake up. Then again, I'm that guy who thinks that if the first thought that enters your head rolling out of bed in the morning is "whoa, its kinda cool in here, let me grab a shirt", its too cold. So what the hell do I know.
* If they showed some dude in a Chiefs rugby jersey fist pumping and screaming "J E T S Jets Jets Jets!" about 100 times on Sunday, well that was me every time they showed the Jets score.
* Seriously, for me, it doesn't get much better than this. My favorite team somehow, someway gets into the playoffs. My second favorite team is in, and plays less than 24 hours after my favorite team. And the game in between the Chiefs and the Jets, involves the only NFC team I give a crap about. Good God, I might be in rehab by Monday. Especially if all three of them win ...
* the video tributes to Lamar were neat. But Tony DiParto playing "Taps" was really emotional. Not quite as tear-inducing as when they play it before the Indy 500 every year, but still, awesome stuff.
* Sign Number One it was going to be our day: No KC Wolf Sketch!
* Weird Introductions Moment: "The Chiefs Tight End!" Tony Gonzalez was the only TE in the group.
* 61 home games and counting since I got to cheer our head coach during introductions. For those keeping track at home, that dates to the denver game in 2000. I think next year, I might just put a sign on the back of the Blazer that says "(Dan Roberts voice) and the Chiefs head coach!!!", so that way at least I can let everyone know what I think of the man. Even if his "I know we're on the opponents side of the field, and its a makeable 4th down, but screw it, let's punt" mentality really irritates me.
* The first huge moment: the Bernard Pollard punt block. I have rewatched that at least 10 times already, and its still one of the most amazing plays I've ever seen. The crowd reaction, it didn't really come through on the TV how loud it got. That place was going crazy after that play.
* Gutsy moment of the day number one: LJ's first touchdown. 4th and inches. 10-7 Jaguars. I would have kicked. Herm never hesitated to go for it. That's why he makes the big bucks, and why I pay them to watch him do his job.
* Brilliant play call of the day number one: the flea flicker. Other than my roommate, nobody loves the flea flicker more than me. That was just beautiful to watch unfold, especially since it happened in my end zone. LJ into the hole, the defense collapses the pocket ... and he flips the ball back to Green, who took a vicious shot while delivering a perfect throw to a well covered Kennison at the back of the end zone. For all you Huard backers, and I'm not one of you, don't worry, brilliant call of the day number two is coming up.
* The halftime show. I have to be careful here, because y'all know what I think of Ida McBeth. I think she's just beyond amazing. I lobby every game for her to be one of 2 permanent singers of the National Anthem (along with Rev. Hal Weeks). Her voice is just incredible. So they introduce her, and immediately, I'm happy, I'm like "sweet! This is why I didn't go pee yet, to see her!" And then they announce she's going to sing "Amazing Grace" in tribute to Lamar. And I'm like "double sweet! Great choice!" Only ... it just didn't work. The "interpretive dance", or whatever the hell they call those things, just didn't do it for me.
* Brilliant play call of the day number two: Green goes down, helped off the field. Enter Damon Huard. First play was a handoff to LJ. Then, magic. Solari calls a drop back pass, bomb down the sideline to Kennison. Kennison hauls it in on an amazing one-handed grab, 40 yard reception, Chiefs have 1st and goal to go.
Here's why I loved it. First, at that point, up 21-10, that's Solari and Herm going for the jugular. That's a play you call when you want to kick an opponent in the nuts and end the fight. Brilliant stuff in its own right. But why I really loved it, and I really don't mean this to come across as a total rip on "former head coach", but that's how its going to sound, is because it never would have happened under "former head coach".
There is no freaking way "former head coach" would have let Al Saunders call that play. Because it would have made Green look bad, it would have given the fans a reason to back the backup QB and boo when Green came back (which is, in fact, what happened, sadly). "Former head coach" would never have let any play be called that would make his chosen one look like anything less than the shining star. Herm? Doesn't give a sh*t, if its a good play and you think it will work, call it. I'll deal with the fallout later.
I still think he has to go when this season is over. But for a couple moments on Sunday, he actually looked competent. Which is more than he can say at pretty much any point in the last four weeks.
* Funniest broadcast moment: Chiefs up 28-17, Jags squib kick the kickoff. Nobody on the Chiefs tries to cover it, the Jags are rushing towards it, and Len Dawson drops the "Jesus Christ, cover (the football) already!" blast. I love commentators who speak exactly what I'm thinking. Even if it might draw a fine from the FCC.
* Brilliant play call of the day numero tres: Chiefs did recover the squib kick. Move down the field. And now face a 3rd and 9 at the Jaguars 11. They break huddle, and line up 3 wide, plus Gonzalez, with LJ as the lone setback. Obvious pass upcoming. Only ... its not. Its a pitch left to LJ, with Shields and Waters in front of him (one of them pulled, not sure which off the top of my head), and he rumbles untouched for a touchdown. I loved this play for three reasons: (a) run out of an obvious passing set, that keeps the defense wondering what's coming; (b) anytime you have two Pro Bowlers blocking for another Pro Bowler, good things will probably happen, but especially (c) Solari understood the situation. We're up 28-17. A field goal there is what you have to have. If you get the six, great, but don't risk the interception, don't risk the sure-fire two TD lead.
Again, I am not a fan of Mike Solari, but every once in a while, he gives you a reason to hope that maybe he knows what he's doing. If he had more of those moments, maybe we wouldn't have needed all the help we got Sunday.
* Turning point of the game: mid 4th quarter. Jags cut it to 35-30, and they're ready to go for two. I'm cold. Its snowing. I look down, muttering or swearing about the latest defensive meltdown, and think "wait a second". I stop. I hand the radio, headphones, and my gloves to Nancy, I hand my beer to Sheila. And I take off my pullover Chiefs windbreaker I had put on early in the game.
Everyone was like "what the hell is he doing?!?!" If you sit by me, hell if you even know a little bit about me, you know I FREAKING HATE THE COLD! And I'm taking clothes off in it?!?! What the hell?!?!
The answer: I had worn said pullover coat twice this year. I wore it for Cincinnati, because it actually deflects the rain pretty well. And I wore it for Baltimore, because it actually blocks the wind pretty well too. Once I realized I'd worn it to the only two home games we lost, off it came. The lesson, as always: don't keep wearing stuff that we lose in. The Jags, of course, fumbled the center exchange on the two point try ... and never ran a play from scrimmage again. Even though I lost my voice, I can't breathe through my nose due to congestion, and my head is pounding from whatever the hell I caught as a result of standing in the snow with just a rugby shirt and a pair of track pants on: you're welcome.
* Brilliant play call (and decision) of the game number four: 4th and 3, 1:57 to play, at the Jaguars 31. Chiefs up 35-30. Herm sends in the punting unit. In section 132, the self-described hottest 29 year old in the stadium fires off angry text message to married friends that reads "your wife has more balls than our head coach".
Suddenly, Trent Green jogs out onto the field, runs up to Tony Corrente, stands by him, lets the play clock tick down, and calls timeout with 1:31 to play.
I don't know if Herm sent him out. I don't know if Trent said "f*ck it, we're not playing like this anymore, we're here to win" and ran out there on his own. But after the timeout, Trent and the offense took the field, and we were playing to win. Hello! You play to win the game!
From the formation, I'm assuming it was going to be a 4-5 yard out pattern to Gonzalez, with Wilson as the bailout option. Trent sends Tony G in motion ... and the Jags jump. Weigmann and Green know what that means, and Casey snaps it to Green, who immediately spikes it. After a few tense moments, Tony Corrente correctly points out that "Number 88 was shifting, which is legal, therefore, offsides, 92, defense. 5 yard penalty. The result of the play is a first down!" Game over. Season on.
* "Playoffs? Don't talk about ... playoffs? You kidding me? Playoffs?" Holy crap. We're in. The Chiefs are freaking in!
--------------------
The good news: We're in! We're in! Season still on!
The bad news: I get to recap another game! No, wait, that's actually a good thing. So really, there is no bad news to report ...
So I got home Sunday with about 9 minutes remaining in the 3rd quarter of the 49ers game. I fire up the TV, and this is the first thing I hear:
(moose johnston) It was real interesting. When we talked with mike shanahan this week, he said he wanted Kansas City to win, to keep the pressure on his own team.
(curt menafee) He definitely didn't want his team to back into the playoffs.
We all know that I have a (brett voice) "vivid imagination". But not even I could have written a script as beautiful as this.
The Chiefs win, at home, in the snow, behind a power rushing attack, the most un-freaking-believable blocked punt / touchdown I have ever seen, and three absolutely brilliant, awe-inspiring play calls by the worst offensive coordinator in franchise history. (Actually, four, but one I credit to Herm. As always, more below ...)
The Patriots, in a game that meant absolutely nothing to them, roll into Nashville, drop a 40 spot on the Titans, and even run up the score by having 92 year old Vinny Testaverde throw a touchdown for the 20th consecutive year.
The Steelers, in a game that meant absolutely nothing to them, go into Cincinnati, fumble away a sure touchdown, allow a 47 yard pass completion with less than a minute left to set up what should have been a gimme field goal for the Bengals ... and then drop a 67 yard bomb of their own on the Bengals to start overtime, and keep hope alive for Arrowhead Nation.
My prayer entering the day, was that the denver game would actually matter for us. Wish granted. But thankfully, God didn't stop there when giving Steve his 30th birthday present.
Because the 6-9 49ers, who had beaten exactly one team with a winning record all season (the Seahawks), who had already lost by 41 (at KC), 29 (vs SD), 31 (at Chi), and 24 (vs NO), who had been swept by the mighty Arizona Cardinals, and who had nothing at all to play for other than "we're here, so what the hell, let's take the field". The 49ers spot my most hated franchise in sports a 13 point lead via a back breaking pick six right before halftime.
And then score 20 unanswered points, and tack on two more field goals, the latter set up by a brilliant QB block on Pro Bowl safety john "Iate hit" lynch, to win at denver, and complete arguably the most amazing four team parlay in NFL history.
You wanted KC to win, mike? You got it.
Chiefs 35, Jaguars 30.
You didn't want to back into the playoffs, mike? You got it.
denver's next opponent: TBD, week 1, 2007 regular season.
Chiefs next opponent: at Colts, 3:30pm Saturday, 2006 playoffs!!!
The only "backing into" anything that'll occur for your broncos this week, mike, involves a dead cornerback, a coffin, and a hole in the ground. Have fun with that.
Holy sh*t. Somehow, someway, we're alive! Season still freaking on! Without question, the single greatest NFL Sunday of my lifetime. I truly don't know where to begin. But I know what I'll be doing come 3:30 on Saturday afternoon ... and happily, its the same thing mike shanarat and his collection of bullet-riddled donkeys will be doing: watching the postseason on television!
* I was so confident of our chances of making the playoffs, that I drove on Sunday, because, and I actually said this on Sunday morning, "I want to lose this game". (Long story, but its a stupid Steve superstition). I'd given up. I wanted to tank the game for draft positioning, I was so sure denver would win. The lesson, as always: if I am THAT confident about something, its not going to happen.
* When I went to the grocery store to get chips and backup bloody mary mix at about 6:45am, the temp deal in the car said 54 degrees. On the drive home after the game, it said 28. Its always a bad sign, when the warmest it gets, is when you first wake up. Then again, I'm that guy who thinks that if the first thought that enters your head rolling out of bed in the morning is "whoa, its kinda cool in here, let me grab a shirt", its too cold. So what the hell do I know.
* If they showed some dude in a Chiefs rugby jersey fist pumping and screaming "J E T S Jets Jets Jets!" about 100 times on Sunday, well that was me every time they showed the Jets score.
* Seriously, for me, it doesn't get much better than this. My favorite team somehow, someway gets into the playoffs. My second favorite team is in, and plays less than 24 hours after my favorite team. And the game in between the Chiefs and the Jets, involves the only NFC team I give a crap about. Good God, I might be in rehab by Monday. Especially if all three of them win ...
* the video tributes to Lamar were neat. But Tony DiParto playing "Taps" was really emotional. Not quite as tear-inducing as when they play it before the Indy 500 every year, but still, awesome stuff.
* Sign Number One it was going to be our day: No KC Wolf Sketch!
* Weird Introductions Moment: "The Chiefs Tight End!" Tony Gonzalez was the only TE in the group.
* 61 home games and counting since I got to cheer our head coach during introductions. For those keeping track at home, that dates to the denver game in 2000. I think next year, I might just put a sign on the back of the Blazer that says "(Dan Roberts voice) and the Chiefs head coach!!!", so that way at least I can let everyone know what I think of the man. Even if his "I know we're on the opponents side of the field, and its a makeable 4th down, but screw it, let's punt" mentality really irritates me.
* The first huge moment: the Bernard Pollard punt block. I have rewatched that at least 10 times already, and its still one of the most amazing plays I've ever seen. The crowd reaction, it didn't really come through on the TV how loud it got. That place was going crazy after that play.
* Gutsy moment of the day number one: LJ's first touchdown. 4th and inches. 10-7 Jaguars. I would have kicked. Herm never hesitated to go for it. That's why he makes the big bucks, and why I pay them to watch him do his job.
* Brilliant play call of the day number one: the flea flicker. Other than my roommate, nobody loves the flea flicker more than me. That was just beautiful to watch unfold, especially since it happened in my end zone. LJ into the hole, the defense collapses the pocket ... and he flips the ball back to Green, who took a vicious shot while delivering a perfect throw to a well covered Kennison at the back of the end zone. For all you Huard backers, and I'm not one of you, don't worry, brilliant call of the day number two is coming up.
* The halftime show. I have to be careful here, because y'all know what I think of Ida McBeth. I think she's just beyond amazing. I lobby every game for her to be one of 2 permanent singers of the National Anthem (along with Rev. Hal Weeks). Her voice is just incredible. So they introduce her, and immediately, I'm happy, I'm like "sweet! This is why I didn't go pee yet, to see her!" And then they announce she's going to sing "Amazing Grace" in tribute to Lamar. And I'm like "double sweet! Great choice!" Only ... it just didn't work. The "interpretive dance", or whatever the hell they call those things, just didn't do it for me.
* Brilliant play call of the day number two: Green goes down, helped off the field. Enter Damon Huard. First play was a handoff to LJ. Then, magic. Solari calls a drop back pass, bomb down the sideline to Kennison. Kennison hauls it in on an amazing one-handed grab, 40 yard reception, Chiefs have 1st and goal to go.
Here's why I loved it. First, at that point, up 21-10, that's Solari and Herm going for the jugular. That's a play you call when you want to kick an opponent in the nuts and end the fight. Brilliant stuff in its own right. But why I really loved it, and I really don't mean this to come across as a total rip on "former head coach", but that's how its going to sound, is because it never would have happened under "former head coach".
There is no freaking way "former head coach" would have let Al Saunders call that play. Because it would have made Green look bad, it would have given the fans a reason to back the backup QB and boo when Green came back (which is, in fact, what happened, sadly). "Former head coach" would never have let any play be called that would make his chosen one look like anything less than the shining star. Herm? Doesn't give a sh*t, if its a good play and you think it will work, call it. I'll deal with the fallout later.
I still think he has to go when this season is over. But for a couple moments on Sunday, he actually looked competent. Which is more than he can say at pretty much any point in the last four weeks.
* Funniest broadcast moment: Chiefs up 28-17, Jags squib kick the kickoff. Nobody on the Chiefs tries to cover it, the Jags are rushing towards it, and Len Dawson drops the "Jesus Christ, cover (the football) already!" blast. I love commentators who speak exactly what I'm thinking. Even if it might draw a fine from the FCC.
* Brilliant play call of the day numero tres: Chiefs did recover the squib kick. Move down the field. And now face a 3rd and 9 at the Jaguars 11. They break huddle, and line up 3 wide, plus Gonzalez, with LJ as the lone setback. Obvious pass upcoming. Only ... its not. Its a pitch left to LJ, with Shields and Waters in front of him (one of them pulled, not sure which off the top of my head), and he rumbles untouched for a touchdown. I loved this play for three reasons: (a) run out of an obvious passing set, that keeps the defense wondering what's coming; (b) anytime you have two Pro Bowlers blocking for another Pro Bowler, good things will probably happen, but especially (c) Solari understood the situation. We're up 28-17. A field goal there is what you have to have. If you get the six, great, but don't risk the interception, don't risk the sure-fire two TD lead.
Again, I am not a fan of Mike Solari, but every once in a while, he gives you a reason to hope that maybe he knows what he's doing. If he had more of those moments, maybe we wouldn't have needed all the help we got Sunday.
* Turning point of the game: mid 4th quarter. Jags cut it to 35-30, and they're ready to go for two. I'm cold. Its snowing. I look down, muttering or swearing about the latest defensive meltdown, and think "wait a second". I stop. I hand the radio, headphones, and my gloves to Nancy, I hand my beer to Sheila. And I take off my pullover Chiefs windbreaker I had put on early in the game.
Everyone was like "what the hell is he doing?!?!" If you sit by me, hell if you even know a little bit about me, you know I FREAKING HATE THE COLD! And I'm taking clothes off in it?!?! What the hell?!?!
The answer: I had worn said pullover coat twice this year. I wore it for Cincinnati, because it actually deflects the rain pretty well. And I wore it for Baltimore, because it actually blocks the wind pretty well too. Once I realized I'd worn it to the only two home games we lost, off it came. The lesson, as always: don't keep wearing stuff that we lose in. The Jags, of course, fumbled the center exchange on the two point try ... and never ran a play from scrimmage again. Even though I lost my voice, I can't breathe through my nose due to congestion, and my head is pounding from whatever the hell I caught as a result of standing in the snow with just a rugby shirt and a pair of track pants on: you're welcome.
* Brilliant play call (and decision) of the game number four: 4th and 3, 1:57 to play, at the Jaguars 31. Chiefs up 35-30. Herm sends in the punting unit. In section 132, the self-described hottest 29 year old in the stadium fires off angry text message to married friends that reads "your wife has more balls than our head coach".
Suddenly, Trent Green jogs out onto the field, runs up to Tony Corrente, stands by him, lets the play clock tick down, and calls timeout with 1:31 to play.
I don't know if Herm sent him out. I don't know if Trent said "f*ck it, we're not playing like this anymore, we're here to win" and ran out there on his own. But after the timeout, Trent and the offense took the field, and we were playing to win. Hello! You play to win the game!
From the formation, I'm assuming it was going to be a 4-5 yard out pattern to Gonzalez, with Wilson as the bailout option. Trent sends Tony G in motion ... and the Jags jump. Weigmann and Green know what that means, and Casey snaps it to Green, who immediately spikes it. After a few tense moments, Tony Corrente correctly points out that "Number 88 was shifting, which is legal, therefore, offsides, 92, defense. 5 yard penalty. The result of the play is a first down!" Game over. Season on.
* "Playoffs? Don't talk about ... playoffs? You kidding me? Playoffs?" Holy crap. We're in. The Chiefs are freaking in!
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