Showing posts with label 49ers. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 49ers. Show all posts

Monday, September 21, 2020

half assed nfl season predictions

Alright, let's finally get these posted.

Most years, this is a drawn out, 8-10 post piece with some reason, rhyme, and rhythm to it.  This year, it isn't.  I'm just gonna post the schedule runs, then post my, uuh, postseason picks, and then we'll move on, because let's face it, these bad boys are three weeks overdue, and with the way life is working for me right now, if I wait any longer, these may never go up.

Also, as much proof as I can offer, that this schedule run was done before the season began, and has remained unchanged since:


Here we go.

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NFC East.


* Projected Champion: Philadelphia Eagles.

* Other Projected Playoff Teams: Dallas Cowboys.

* Preseason Teams Power Ranking Positions: 

3. Philadelphia Eagles.
9. Dallas Cowboys.
28. New York Giants.
32. Washington Redskins.

* Coaches Power Ranking Positions:

8. Doug Pederson, Eagles.
18. Mike McCarthy, Cowboys.
19. "Riverboat" Ron Rivera, Redskins.
31. Joe Judge "Judy", Giants.

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NFC Norris.


* Projected Champion: Green Bay Packers.

* Other Projected Playoff Teams: none.

* Preseason Teams Power Ranking Positions: 

10. Green Bay Packers.
17. Minnesota Vikings.
23. Chicago Bears.
26. Detroit Lions.

* Coaches Power Ranking Positions:

11. Matt LaFleur, Packers.
14. Mike Zimmer, Vikings.
16. Matt Nagy, Bears.
26. Matt Patricia, Lions.

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NFC South.


* Projected Champion: Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

* Other Projected Playoff Teams: none.

* Preseason Teams Power Ranking Positions:

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
14. New Orleans Saints.
20. Atlanta "Shane" Falcons.
29. Carolina Panthers.

* Coaches Power Ranking Positions:

10. Sean Payton, New Orleans Saints.
17. Bruce Arians, Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
22. Dan Quinn, Atlanta "Shane" Falcons.
30. Matt Rhule, Carolina Panthers.

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NFC West.


* Projected Champion: Seattle Seahawks.

* Other Projected Playoff Teams: San Francisco 49ers, Los Angeles Rams.

* Preseason Teams Power Ranking Positions:

6. San Francisco 49ers.
11. Los Angeles Rams.
12. Seattle Seahawks.
19. Arizona "Super" Cardinals.

* Coaches Power Ranking Positions:

5. Pete Carroll, Seattle Seahawks.
13. Sean McVay, Los Angeles Rams.
15. Kyle Shanahan, San Francisco 49ers.
23. Kliff Kingsbury, Arizona "Super" Cardinals.

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NFC Postseason.

Playoff Seeding:

* 1. 11-5 NFC East Champion Philadelphia Eagles (tiebreaker over Tampa Bay Buccaneers via Conference Record).

* 2. 11-5 NFC South Champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

* 3. 10-6 NFC West Champion Seattle Seahawks (tiebreaker over San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams via Conference Record).

* 4. 9-7 NFC Norris Champion Green Bay Packers (tiebreaker over Chicago Bears via Conference Record).

* 5. 10-6 San Francisco 49ers (tiebreaker over Los Angeles Rams via Strength of Victory).

* 6. 10-6 Los Angeles Rams.

* 7. 9-7 Dallas Cowboys (tiebreaker over New Orleans Saints via Record Amongst Common Opponents, tiebreaker over Chicago Bears via Conference Record).

Non Playoff Teams:

* 9-7 New Orleans Saints.
* 9-7 Chicago Bears.
* 8-8 Minnesota Vikings.
* 8-8 Detroit Lions.
* 8-8 Arizona "Super" Cardinals.
* 4-12 Washington Redskins.
* 4-12 Carolina Panthers.
* 4-12 Atlanta "Shane" Falcons.
* 3-13 New York Giants.

The Games:

* 6 Rams 31, at 3 Seahawks 14 (Sat 1/9, 3:30pm CT, FOX).
* 7 Cowboys 38, at 2 Buccaneers 31 (Sat 1/9, 7pm CT, ESPN / ABC).
* 5 49ers 30, at 4 Packers 20 (Sun 1/10, 7pm CT, NBC).

* 7 Cowboys 31, at 1 Eagles 21 (Sat 1/16, 7pm CT, FOX).
* 6 Rams 34, at 5 49ers 27 (Sun 1/17, 3:30pm CT, FOX).

* 7 Cowboys 21, at 6 Rams 34 (Sunday 1/24, 2pm CT, FOX).

NFC Champion: 6 Los Angeles Rams.

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AFC East.


* Projected Champion: New England Patriots.

* Other Projected Playoff Teams: none.

* Preseason Teams Power Ranking Positions:

8. New England Patriots.
15. Buffalo Bills.
22. New York Jets.
24. Miami Dolphins.

* Coaches Power Ranking Positions:

2. Bill Belichick, New England Patriots.
7. Sean McDermott, Buffalo Bills.
20. Brian Flores, Miami Dolphins.
29. Adam Gase, New York Jets.

--------------------

AFC Norris.


* Projected Champion: Pittsburgh Steelers.

* Other Projected Playoff Teams: Baltimore Ravens, Cleveland Browns.

* Preseason Teams Power Ranking Positions:

2. Baltimore Ravens.
7. Pittsburgh Steelers.
27. Cleveland Browns.
30. Cincinnati Bengals.

* Coaches Power Ranking Positions:

4. John Harbaugh, Baltimore Ravens.
6. Omar Epps Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh Steelers.
27. Zac Taylor, Cincinnati Bengals.
32. Kevin Stefanski, Cleveland Browns.

--------------------

AFC South.


* Projected Champion: Houston Texans.

* Other Projected Playoff Teams: Tennessee Titans.

* Preseason Teams Power Ranking Positions:

5. Tennessee Titans.
13. Houston Texans.
21. Indianapolis Colts.
31. Jacksonville Jaguars.

* Coaches Power Ranking Positions:

3. Bill O'Brien, Houston Texans.
9. Mike Vrabel, Tennessee Titans.
12. Frank Reich, Indianapolis Colts.
28. Doug Marrone, Jacksonville Jaguars.

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AFC West.


* Projected Champion: Kansas City Chiefs.

* Other Projected Playoff Teams: none.

* Preseason Teams Power Ranking Positions:

1. Kansas City Chiefs.
16. las vegas raiders.
18. those people.
25. Los Angeles "Super" Chargers.

* Coaches Power Ranking Positions:

1. "Fat" Andy Reid, Kansas City Chiefs.
21. jon gruden, las vegas raiders.
24. Anthony Lynn, Los Angeles "Super" Chargers.
25. vic fangio, those people.

--------------------

AFC Postseason.

Playoff Seeding:

* 1. 11-5 AFC West Champion Kansas City Chiefs.

* 2. 10-6 AFC Norris Champion Pittsburgh Steelers (tiebreaker over Baltimore Ravens via Record Amongst Common Opponents).

* 3. 9-7 AFC South Champion Houston Texans (tiebreaker over Tennessee Titans via Divisional Record, tiebreaker over New England Patriots via H2H Victory Week 11).

* 4. 9-7 AFC East Champion New England Patriots.

* 5. 10-6 Baltimore Ravens.

* 6. 9-7 Tennessee Titans (tiebreaker over Cleveland Browns and those people via 2-0 H2H record).

* 7. 9-7 Cleveland Browns (tiebreaker over those people via Conference Record).

Non Playoff Teams:

* 9-7 those people.
* 8-8 Buffalo Bills.
* 8-8 New York Jets.
* 8-8 Cincinnati Bengals.
* 8-8 Indianapolis Colts.
* 8-8 las vegas raiders.
* 7-9 Miami Dolphins.
* 4-12 Los Angeles "Super" Chargers.
* 2-14 Jacksonville Jaguars.

The Games:

* 6 Titans 20, at 3 Texans (Sat 1/9, noon CT, NBC).
* 7 Browns 6, at 2 Steelers 31 (Sun 1/10, noon CT, CBS).
* 5 Ravens 17, at 4 Patriots 20 (Sun 1/10, 3:30pm CT, ESPN / ABC).

* 3 Texans 24, at 2 Steelers 20 (Sat 1/16, 3:30pm CT, CBS).
* 4 Patriots 17, at 1 Chiefs 38 (Sun 1/17, noon CT, NBC).

* 3 Texans 24, at 1 Chiefs 41 (Sunday 1/24, 5:40pm CT, CBS).

AFC Champion: 1 Kansas City Chiefs.

--------------------

Super Bowl LV.

* 6 Los Angeles Rams 20, 1 Kansas City Chiefs 45.

Super Bowl Champion: Kansas City Chiefs.

Saturday, April 11, 2020

a fond fair look back part uno

"Now it's morning,
And the phone rings.
You say you've gotta get your things together;
You just gotta leave, before you change your mind.

But if you knew
What I was thinking girl?
I'd turn around!
If you'd just ask me one more time ...

Don't fall in love with a dreamer!
'Cause he'll always take you in.
Just when you think you've really changed him?
He'll leave you again!

Don't fall in love with a dreamer!
'Cause he'll break you every time!
So put out the light, and just hold on --
Until we say goodbye! ..."

-- "Don't Fall In Love With a Dreamer" by Kenny Rogers and Kim Carnes.  God bless, losing Kenny was a blow, in a year full of them so far ...

--------------------

So, to my KC readers, how are you loving this shelter in place crap?

Personally, I hate it.  I may be biased given where I live (I live in this awesome part of Kansas City known as Waldo, for those reading this that aren't familiar with Kansas City), but it's beyond depressing to see The Well has removed the tents ... and nobody's on the rooftop.  To see that the Saturday market at Border Star is still open ... but all the sh*t that is usually sold that makes it so worth the trip a few Saturday's a month, isn't available.

It sucks to miss out on $2 margarita night at Chelly's every Monday.  $6 burger night at my home away from home (The Well) on Tuesday * .  Cheap taco night at Walsh's every Wednesday.  Trivia nights at Lew's.

You can't pick a day to enjoy lunch at Tasso's.  (The gyro is to kill for.)  Or pick a night to enjoy dinner at Waldo Thai Place.  (I think it's overpriced -- two solid glasses of pinot plus dinner sets me back fifty solid dollars just for me ... but have been told by chicas with far more competency at determining what a quality dinner costs, that getting out at pushing a (puff daddy voice) benjamin on a date, isn't unreasonable.  Probably explains why I'm 43 and woke up alone this morning.)

I hate missing happy hour at Patrick's Bar and No Grill.  I literally don't know what to do without my ultimate skillet this morning from Neighborhood Cafe.  Hell, this is one of the two times out of the year I'll at least give thought to attending Mass ... only Christ the King is shut down, during Lent for crying out loud.

At least we still have Max's open for business as usual, unchanged and unaffected by all this panic ... but even I can eat a tenderloin only so many times a week.

And as if all the local restaurants, bars and grills that make this part of town so incredible being all but closed isn't craptacular enough, in the last three months, we've lost three shopping destinations / institutions as well -- not to this damnable virus, but lost as in "dead".  Dave Smith the Lamp Maker, closed.  The Big Lots on Wornall, shut down with pretty much no notice.  And the hidden gem a lil' across the state line, the hidden Macy's in Prairie Village nobody seemed to know was there for fifty plus years, is gone-zo now to boot.

Needless to say, my biggest fear, is that Waldo may never recover from this, if it goes on another two months.

I pray that, as I so often am, that I am one hundred percent wrong, in my thoughts on that.

Because having said and noted that?

Glad you asked.

--------------------

(*: back in November, when dad had his latest (and God willing, last) "cardiac event", I took my mom to The Well for lunch on that first day.  She demanded I take her back the next day, because "that burger was incredible".  I may suck at a lot in life, but I know how to pick a bar worth being a regular at.  Especially if food is involved.  #barleys #lategreatzigandmacs #twisters #dirtybird #thewell #dailydouble)

--------------------

Every year, I post my NFL Predictions on this site.  Since 2008 (when this site was launched), you can go back and review what my thoughts were entering the season.  And most years since 2008, you get my weekly NFL predictions as well.  (Because (fidelity ad guy voice) why not.)

This past NFL season saw something you rarely if ever see out of me: competency.  Solid prognosticating.  Thirty nine games over .500 in the regular season straight up.  Twelve games above .500 against the spread.

Even in the playoffs, which if we're being honest here is a total crapshoot, I went one game above .500 straight up, and went .500 against the spread.  (Texans / Bills was a push.)

Picking the Chiefs, I went 14-5-0 straight up.  I went 13-6-0 against the spread.  (The one game difference was the game in Detroit back in Week Four.)

Meaning, that for likely the first time in the twelve years I've been making NFL picks on this site, you not only would have earned money simply betting my hunches ... but had you simply wagered a decent amount on my Chiefs beliefs, you'd have broken your bookie.  (Or at least shown him a level of love OJ Simpson never once failed, to show Nicole.)

--------------------

But as impressed as I am by my rare display of intelligence (at least weekly this past season) ... I am drop dead on the floor stunned, at my vision when it came to the season long predictions finalized way back on the day this past Chiefs season began.

(Here is your link to the final of the five full season predictions posts; you can access the previous four, at the top of that post.)

I may not believe in -- let alone practice -- much, when it comes to ethics and morality.  But I do try to believe in accountability.  And so, let's hold me accountable, for what I said would happen, seven months ago, shall we?

Let's begin with the bad and the ugly ... because for once?

There ain't much to report.

--------------------

Here's part of what I mean by "stunning results", even when it's in the "f*ck up and failure" file -- out of 32 teams, 8 of them, my predicted final record was off by three or more games.

That's not surprising, to be frank and honest.  But of those eight squads?  Three of them I picked to win ten or more games ... which all three did ... and I still was off by three games in each case!

So let's start with the predicted divisional finishes that I whiffed on by two or more spots.  (Meaning, I picked them last and finished at least second, or vice versa ... or I picked them first, and they finished third or worse, or vice versa.)

There were only five of these squads, and none of them finished more than two off my projection.  (So no "picked to finish last, and they won the division ... or picked to win the division, and they finished in the basement" flame-outs.  That's bueno.)  And those five are ...

* AFC East: none.  In fact, I got the AFC East order of finish 100% correct.

(We'll get to the gloating portion of my picks in the next post, Part Dos ... which will probably be a hell of a lot longer than Part Uno.  Note: this almost never, never happens, I'm that crappy of a prognosticator.)

* AFC Norris: Baltimore Ravens.  Look it, there is no team in the NFL I was more wrong about than your Baltimore Ravens.  I had them finishing third in the AFC Norris ... and to say I whiffed on their final record, well ... keep reading.  Again -- there is no team I was more wrong about, than your Baltimore Ravens.  Other than possibly ...

* AFC Norris: Cleveland Browns.  Like a moron, I bought the hype.  I had the Browns winning the AFC Norris at 11-5.  They finished third at 6-10.

* AFC South: Tennessee Titans.  I picked the Titans to finish dead last ... albeit it at 7-9.  The Titans finished in 2nd, at 9-7.

* AFC West: none.  A second division I got the order of finish 100% correct.  (Stevo patting himself on the back for knowing the division he's lived his life, uuh, living, really well!)

* NFC East: none.  I had first and second flip-flopped ... but like with the regular season, I did have the division coming down to the Week Sixteen showdown in Philly.

* NFC Norris: Chicago Bears.  I had the Bears winning the division at 10-6.  They finished third at 8-8.

* NFC South: none.  I bombed on taking a flyer on the "Shane" Falcons ... but they only finished one spot behind my projected finish.  (Inside the division, at least.)

* NFC West: Los Angeles Rams.  I had them winning the West at 11-5.  They finished third at 9-7, the first team out in the NFC.

--------------------

Perhaps even more important than picking a division finish, is picking a final record.  (Since after all, most of us reading this wager on the over / under for wins for at least a few squads in (earth wind and fire voice) September.)  As noted above, there were eight (out of thirty two) teams I whiffed on the win total for, by at least three games.  Five of those eight, I was off by three games exactly.  One I was off by four, one I was off by five, and one was, well ... we'll get to them.  Let's just say, I was off on them by a lot.

Here are those eight squads ...

* AFC East: none.  In many regards, I got no division more accurate in the 2019 season picks.  Save for possibly the AFC West.

* AFC Norris: Cleveland Browns.  I had the Browns finishing 11-5; they finished five games short of that mark at 6-10. 

But let's move on, because there was no team I was more wrong about than ...

* AFC Norris: Baltimore Ravens.  I feel like I should haul out a late-night commercial advertisement voice here, because I was wrong by not one!  Not two!  Not three!  Not four!

(Pause).

Sh*t, at this point, I should haul out the classic SNL commercial "Super Colon Blow" voice here ... because five?  No, guess again.  Six!  I'll give you one more chance.  Seven! 

Not even close.

Because I was nine -- nine! -- games off, from the Ravens final regular season record last season.  I said they'd go 5-11.  They went 14-2.  When you consider that two teams (Titans, Eagles) got in at 9-7 last year?  I literally was an entire playoff berth incorrect, on the Ravens record!  You could plow that Titans bandwagon through the variance between my predicted wins for the Ravens, and their actual wins ... and still not scrape the garage door tracks on either side, I was so insanely f*cking wrong!

I should be embarrassed by this whiff.  When we get to Part Dos, you'll understand why I'm really not that ashamed of it.  Because this is the only prediction I truly have reason, to be embarrassed over.

Moving on ...

* AFC South: Jacksonville Jaguars.  I had them at 9-7.  They finished 6-10.  Either way, I had them missing the playoffs, so not a gigantic debacle here.

* AFC West: none.  When we get to the next post about what I got right?  You'll drool over my knowledge of the Chiefs division, I think.

* NFC East: New York Giants.  I had them at 7-9; they finished 4-12.  I've predicted worse.  (See Ravens, Baltimore.)

* NFC South: Atlanta "Shane" Falcons.  Predicted 11-5.  Finished 7-9.  Whoops.

Finally, as noted farther up above ...

* The NFC Trio (one each from the Norris, South, and West): I had the Green Bay Packers, New Orleans Saints, and San Francisco 49ers all making the playoffs at 10-6. 

The good news is, they all did make the playoffs, and all hosted at least one game once they got there!

The problem is, they all finished 13-3, and created one hell of a clusterf*ck to figure out the final NFC seeding (which, to be fair, I predicted said clusterf*ck at 10-6) in real life!

I've said it before, and I'll say it again: ain't we lucky we got 'em?  Good Times!!!!!!!

--------------------

So, with the awful divisional picks, and craptacular season records out of the way, there's one last category to explore for f*ckupitude: playoff predictions.

And really, there's three that stand out, from those picks made seven months ago, and man, do they display f*ckupitude (which I guess is now a word?):

* The Cleveland Browns to have AFC Home Field Advantage.  And also ...
* The Atlanta "Shane" Falcons to have NFC Home Field Advantage.

Not only did neither team win their division, post a winning record, or gain a playoff berth ... they clearly were not their respective conferences top seeds.

But perhaps my biggest gaffe in the playoff predictions, was taking the Dallas Cowboys to the Super Bowl.  In my defense, I can't think of a single credible national (or D/FW local) pundit who thinks the Cowboys lack Super Bowl talent.  With Mike McCarthy now in charge on the sideline, they have no excuse to not get there at least once in the next three years. 

Because whatever one may think of the Mike McCarthy hire (personal opinion: it's not bad, but Dallas could have -- and should have -- done better ** ), let's ... hell, it's been a few months.

Let's play The Pyramid real quick, to end this post, shall we?

(pre-strokey dick clark voice) ready?  Go!
(markie post *** ) Jim Fassel.  Mike Martz.  "Sur" William Callahan.
(stevo) bad early 2000s coaches!
(markie post) Jim "Corpse" Caldwell.  Lovie Smith.
(stevo) god awful black coaches!
(markie post) No.  Well, yes, but ... Dan Quinn.  gary "krap of" kubiak.  Jeff "500" Fisher!
(stevo) worthless white coaches!
(markie post) Uuh ... John Fox.  Sean Payton.  "Chucky".  Tom Coughlin.  Mike Holmgren.  Mike McCarthy.
(stevo) competent white coaches!
(markie post) Wow ... uuh ... The Harbaugh brothers.  "Fat" Andy Reid.  Kyle Shanahan.  Brian Billick.  Barry Switzer!
(stevo) Super Bowl coaches!
(markie post) Yes!  Yes!  Yes!  (hugs all around as the confetti flies ... **** )

Jesus.  You look at that list of coaches who have, uuh, coached, in at least one Super Bowl since 1995?  No wonder (villiam valton voice) Vill Velichick has made nine of the last eighteen of them, as the AFC's representative.  Even I could outcoach some of those fine gentlemen.  I'm looking at you, "Sur" William.

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(**: in case you've forgotten, Mike McCarthy was the Chiefs QB coach from 1995-1998.  Meaning he botched the transfer from Montana to Bono, botched the transfer from Bono to Gannon, botched the transfer from Gannon to Grbac, then back to Gannon, then back to Grbac ... basically, the QB position was less stable than the San Andreas fault during his four years coaching the position.  And yet somehow, the Chiefs went 42-24 (counting playoffs) with two division titles, in those four years.  I guess some coaches really do fail forward!)

(***: so, apparently I was late to the party on this one ... but since this #kclockdown began, I've gotten into "Chicago PD" big time.  (I mean, when USA, ION, and (I think) Oxygen devote between them five days a week to showing the, uuh, show, I can get drawn in.)  Apparently, Markie Post plays the drop-dead gorgeous Sophia Bush's character's mom -- a drug-addicted crook named Bunny!  Who knew!  Markie Post is still alive and well, and now is playing a sleazy slutty chick named Bunny!  How bleeping awesome is that!  Now our kids get to suffer through what she considers to be "acting", like we had to in the 1980s!)

(****: also, I've been mocking "The Pyramid" on this site long before those "free free!  free!" commercials for whatever company does them, started doing them.  I demand royalties dammit!)

--------------------

The next post should be Part Dos of the look back at my 2019 NFL Predictions: a fond, fair look back at what I got right.  That post might top twenty printed pages, I so nailed my picks last year.

And when you haven't nailed anything but an insignificant random one-off in a few years, you compliment yourself for nailing it, every chance you can (rimshot!) ...

Friday, March 13, 2020

the final fo'

"Every single time I see you?
I start to feel this way.
It makes me wonder if I'm ever
Gonna feel this way again!

There's a picture,
And it's hanging,
In the back of my head --
I see it over and over ...

I want to hold you,
To love you, in my arms and then?
I want to need you, 'cause I need to?
Be with you 'til the end!

But then I hear myself reply,
You've got to hold it in!
But this time?
Tonight? ...

(If Only!)
I had the guts to feel this way!
(And If Only!)
You'd look at me and want to stay!

(And If Only!)
I'd take you in my arms and say?
I won't go, 'cause I need you --
'Cause I need you now! ..."

-- "If Only" by Hanson.  (Pause).  Don't judge.  1999 was one fun as f*ck year for me ... that, and this song is still damned good, twenty plus years later ...

--------------------

And then, there were four.

In the words of that prestigious law firm that Rebecca Howe worked for, "Emerson, Lake, and Palmer" * ?  "Welcome back my friends!  To the show that never ends!  We're so glad you could attend!  Come inside!  Come inside!"

A week's worth of postings has been building to this: the finale of Chiefs Bracketology (The Race To Crown My Favorite Game of the "Fat" Andy Reid Era).  We will crown a champion today, come hell, high water, or death by infectious disease, dammit ** ! 

Anyways, in case you're just tuning in -- welcome!  And here is what you would have missed so far, if you are in that category:

* The Thirty One Automatic Bids.
* The Thirty Seven At Large Qualifiers.
* Bracketology.
* From Sixty Eight to Sixteen on the Right Side.
* From Sixty Eight to Sixteen on the Left Side.
* From Sixteen to 'Fo.

And now, the finale, of Chiefs Bracketology.

--------------------

(*: the "Cheers" finale holds up shockingly well.  Rebecca coming unhinged at the realization she's going to marry a plumber still has me crying from laughter thirty years later.  "Looks like we're not getting any work out of her today. / Yeah, and she doesn't start that 'til noon!".) 

(** ok, probably not in the last case, but still, we're crowning a champ today, dammit!  That, or my name isn't Gumby, dammit!  (Pause).  Fine, my name isn't Gumby ... but dammit, my fingers are hurting from typing this much in the last week!  

In all seriousness -- I have no idea how "Reputable CBS Sportsline Columnist" does this every week.  It's painful.  Typing 30k plus words in a week hurts!  I swear, my hand(s) haven't hurt this much since ... well, let's not go there ... but circa 1999.  I mean for f*ck's sake, I liked most of the boy bands at the turn of the century!  I'm shocked -- shocked! -- there was rarely a girl in sight back then!  (Pause).  What?  (Pause).  Oh hell yes, I can still do every dance move to "Bye Bye Bye"!  I still do that at every Chiefs Tailgate!  And ... I'm sleeping next to a pillow tonight  You think those facts are connected?)

--------------------

The Final Four.

* 4 vs Chargers Week 1 2016 over 1 at those people Week 4 2018.

Believe it or not, this was not a difficult choice for me.  That Chargers game was so damned fun, it actually trumped beating my most hated sports team in their building, while I witnessed it.

And "fun", is what this exercise in typing is trying to resolve -- the funnest game of the "Fat" Andy Reid Era.

Also, to be fair, this is definitely the undercard, to the main event.  Larry Merchant *** , Jim Lampley, and Harold Lederman might have scored this upset right but ...

(***: I contend the reason boxing has fallen apart as a sporting event, is due to the demise of it mattering on HBO.  I actually think not only "The Voice of Reason", but Mr. Reason's father, would agree with me on this.  There was NEVER a boxing match on HBO we missed for a solid twenty years.  Sh*t, up to and including PPV.  The late, great "Mean" Gene Okerlund had nothing on the boxing PPV purchases back then.  Again, I know I'm right on this.  Anyway ...)

... but the remaining Final Four game, makes Buster Douglas over Mike Tyson seem reasonable ...

* 2 vs Texans AFC Divisional 2019 over 1 vs 49ers Super Bowl LIV 2019.

Hang on, I might need to get some protection to avoid the projectiles and (indianapolis colts gameday program voice) "missile like objects" headed my way, for this choice.

(And trust me friends, peoples, peepettes, and people more under the influence of whatever, than me right now stumbling onto this: I have made many, many, many, many, many choices in life that are far, far, far, far, far more regrettable, than liking the Texans triumph two months ago, more than the Super Bowl victory a month ago.)

All I can truly say is this: if you were there for that second quarter, you not only get why this upset is my choice, but you can see the path to victory in this Bracketology for the Texans game, from a mile away. 

You want a game for the ages?  You got it -- from down 24 to up 27 in the span of 30 minutes.  You want moments of a lifetime?  You got it -- Dirty Danny Sorenson's fake punt tackle, and not even ninety seconds later, his forced fumble on the kickoff return that Darwin Thompson returned to the six.  You want announcers who actually sound like they're enjoying their job?  I honestly thought Tony Romo was gonna scream himself as hoarse on the call, as I did shouting myself silent inside of Arrowhead that afternoon.

And you want to see Terrorhead at its finest?  Every godd*mned second from Dirty Dan's fake punt tackle, until Patrick Mahomes "Of The Chiefs" put the Chiefs up for good with his third touchdown toss to Travis Kelce ... of the last eight minutes.

I tried to convey my feelings about that game ... and pretty much failed, because I just didn't do it right.  Maybe someday I will remedy that, and recap just the Texans game, rather than lumping Houston and Tennessee together. 

But for this post?  Just know this -- I have said for decades that I could die a happy man if the Chiefs would simply bring Lamar's Trophy home once, with me present to see it.  That happened, on January 19, 2020.  Then I noted that I could really die a happy man, if they'd steal that Lombardi dude's Trophy too.  That happened, on February 2, 2020.

Both of those happened within the last three months.

And both of those games?  Lost in this Bracketology, to the game that preceded it, on January 12, 2020. 

THAT?  Is how much the Texans Divisional Game means to me.  Not even the game I denoted as "The Catalyst" (and on that, I know I'm 100% right), not even that game, had a chance against the Titans or 49ers.  The Texans game not only lived up to the hype; it somehow surpassed it in a way few games and/or sporting events I give a f*ck about ever have!

And again, if you need a refresher, this is to figure out my favorite game of the "Fat" Andy Reid Era.  Not the best -- clearly that is the Super Bowl, and only a person with an IQ below that of a crash test dummy would deny that.  But favorite? 

Give me the Texans.  Give me 51 unanswered points, trailing by 24.  Give me the raw, pure emotion of Dirty Dan sniffing out the fake punt, of Patrick Mahomes "Of The Chiefs" finding the end zone four times in nine minutes down 24.  Give me what the crowd felt like that day (and believe me, if you weren't crying, you have no idea what emotions are).

Give me EVERYTHING that day was, over the game three weeks later, than many of you would have picked in this matchup of epic, fun, "want to relive it forever" Chiefs games!

(Pause).

I suppose it goes without saying, that y'all know how this is going to end ...

The Championship.

* 2 vs Texans AFC Divisional 2019 over 4 vs Chargers Week 1 2016.

The two greatest comebacks in franchise history.  One from down 21 in the second half; one from down 24 in the first.  One matters slightly more than the other, don't you think? 

Oh, and even as a "Sir" Alex Smith apologist (and someone who prays "Sir" Alex somehow, someway, is leading us in "The Chop" on Thursday, September 10th): Mahomes Trumps Smith.  Because of course he did ... and does.  Even Mr. Miyagi knows the mentor eventually is felled by the student.

Winner of Chiefs Bracketology (The Race to Crown My Favorite Game of the "Fat" Andy Reid Era): 2 vs Texans AFC Divisional 2019.

--------------------

And so, Chiefs Bracketology draws to a close.  I truly hope you enjoyed this.  There's so much in life right now that drives you to drink, drives you to complain, drives you to b*tch, p*ss and moan in utter and total frustration.  Trust me -- I get it.  As someone who has been mandated to work from home come Wednesday, to adhere to Mayor Lucas' (absolutely correct) decision to shut down gatherings of over 1,000 people (the PennTower complex, plus Penn Valley CC, has more than a thousand folks every day), I get it.  Life is a b*tch sometimes.

I just hope that for a few moments each night, this at least made you think about fun pointless sh*t like ranking Chiefs games, revising epic Chiefs games, debating which Chiefs game best (jim valvano voice) moved our emotions to tears ... you know, anything but the ugliness invading our world at this point, how fun ignoring the obvious can be.

I also hope you had as much fun reading these posts, as I did, uuh, posting them.  This was fun.  This series this week reminded me of what this site used to be like: find something that amused me, crack a few jokes, and explain why said thing amused me.  Sometimes I think my real-life struggles, real-life anger management issues towards certain people, my real-life f*ck ups and failures, tend to drag this place down to a level I don't desire it to reside at. 

My hope in this near year -- this site's 13th! -- is that it return to the fun, interesting, cool read it used to be.  I mean hell, you've already gotten almost as many posts out of me by mid March of 2020, as you got for all of 2019.  Detailing the run-up to the Playoff Games and the Super Bowl was fantastic.  Reliving the funnest, most awesome moments of the last seven years of Chiefs Football has been soul-inspiring.  Love or hate my selections?  Thank God above we HAVE 68 plus games of fun, frivolity, and outright kick-ass football to celebrate!  (Because we didn't from 2006-2012 ... really from 1998-2012, if we're being honest.)

Below is how the final Chiefs Bracketology played out (sorry for the small font, but I had to fit it in one capture, and my monitor is only 20"):


(Yellow highlighting denotes survive and advance.)

--------------------

Oh, and one last thing: don't worry.  I'm not gonna pull a Rany on you.

The best is yet to be ... at least on this site ...

Friday, January 10, 2020

the divisional picks

So ... "The Ex" always got gets a birthday month.

I hope to get a birthday week.

And your lead / theme?  Is from my 22nd Birthday -- January 3, 1999 ... the greatest NFL game I never attended, but watched every second of:



Twenty one years later?  The finale never gets old * .

(*: eight years old, the other lead / theme below?  Still never gets old either.  #justbeyou)

Here's to hoping, wishing, and praying, we get a game like this, uuh, this week, between these two teams, on the other side of the NFL Postseason bracket ... to say nothing of the one, on the Chiefs side of the NFL Postseason bracket ...

--------------------

The Statisticals.

Last Week SU: 2-2-0.
Last Week ATS: 2-1-0.

--------------------

The Non-Chiefs Picks.

Last week gave us four epic games.

This week?  I believe will give us two. 

One not involving the Chiefs and/or Texans.

Anyways, here we go:

* Vikings (+7) 27, at 49ers 13.  Gun to my head, the bomb to Adam Thielen in the opening minutes of overtime, is arguably the gutsiest call of the entire 2019 NFL season.  You're entrusting a quarterback whose entire reputation is based on choking when it counts, to complete a forty something yard bomb in the insane asylum known as the Mercedes-Benz Superdome, with the game on the line.

And Kirk Cousins completes it, with relative ease.

Folks?  If the Saints can't slow down the Vikings at home?  Do you really think the ultimate "wine and cheese crowd" in Santa Clara can manage to make enough noise to distract and discombobulate, the Vikings?

They won't.  Vikings advance with relative ease.

(Also -- this isn't a prime time game.  Something Kirk Cousins can't avoid next week ... but he can again this week.)

* at Ravens (-10) 45, Titans 3.  For two weeks, the best regular season team has had to listen to various (alleged) credible pundits declare that they're not the best regular season team this season.  They've had to listen to (alleged) credible pundits declare that the Titans are vastly underrated, that the Ravens are insanely overrated, and that one man (Derrick Henry) is so unstoppable, the Ravens might as well not even show up, in their own stadium, with the season on the line.

In the words of Chad Ochocinco: "Child?  Please!"

This is going to be an ass kicking of Biblical proportions, as my dad would say.  This is going to be an utter and total destruction from the moment "go".  The Ravens are not losing this game.  This game will be over with so early, I might get ten hours of sleep Saturday night, and I am fully aware The Bus is leaving for Arrowhead no later than 6:15am Sunday morning * .

I have argued all week the Chiefs / Texans line is at least five points too high.  (I stand behind that statement -- the Chiefs should not be four point favorites at NRG Reliant (which being favored by ten suggests they would be), and anyone with an IQ above room temperature knows that.) 

This line?  Is at least five points too low.  This is going to be an absolute destruction -- to the utter dismay of us Chiefs fans.  Baltimore in an epic route on the Saturday Divisional Round prime timer, the likes of which we haven't seen, since Tim Tebow was losing 45-10 in New England, nine years ago.

(*: full details coming in the Chiefs / Texans pick manana.)

* at Packers 24, Seahawks (+4) 21 (OT). 

This ... is going to be one epic battle.

Sadly, Matt Hasselbeck won't be on the field to open overtime to declare "we want the ball, and we're going to score!"  Because that worked out so well last time.

But -- but! -- the intrigue of this game is so effing awesome.

Russell Wilson back in Wisconsin (albeit a few hours northeast of Madison).

Aaron Rodgers with his best shot at a second Super Bowl since ... losing in overtime in Seattle in the 2014 postseason.

And no matter what the other game's outcome is?  It's one of (mike gundy voice) four! (chanel west coast voice) ridiculousness(ly)! sick matchups next week. 

It's either Vikings at Packers (a really solid rivalry), Seahawks at 49ers (a properly rated rivalry), or Vikings at Seahawks (two great MNF games the last two years) or Packers at 49ers (a return to the late 1990s / early 2000s glory years of that rivalry).

We are all winners, no matter who wins these three games -- especially the two NFC ones.

--------------------

So here we go, people.  Four games, four conference championship spots up for grabs.  Somehow, three of the four home teams are favored by at least a touchdown.  This is going to be real, and it is going to be spectacular.

Just like twenty one years ago, by the Bay.

(Good God.  That game is old enough to drink!)

--------------------

Be safe out there tonight, KC.  Brush Creek has already overflowed onto South Ward Parkway, and it's a watery mess outside the Intercontinental.  (I spend my happy hour there tonight, with "Uncle" Bob, and wherever the hell Pat fits in, to the family configuration.)

And until tomorrow?

Sunday, September 8, 2019

stevo's 2019 nfl predictions: the playoffs

"Every time when I look in the mirror?
All these lines on my face getting clearer?
The past is gone!  It went by, like dusk to dawn.
Isn't that the way -- everybody's got their dues in life to pay?

I know nobody knows
Where it comes and where it goes.
I know everybody sins --
But you got to lose to know, how to win.

Half my life is books and written pages;
Live and learn, from fools and from sages.
You know it's true --
All the feelings come back to you!

Sing with me!
Sing for the year!
Sing for the laughter!
Sing for the tears!

Sing with me!
If just for today!
Then maybe tomorrow?
The good Lord will take you away ...

... (one epic buildup) ...

Dream on!  Dream on!
Dream on!  Dream until your dreams come true!

Dream on!  Dream on!
Dream on!  Dream until your dreams come true!

Yeah, dream on!  Dream on!
Dream on!  Dream on!

Dream on!  Dream on!
Dream on!  Aaaaaaaahhhhhhhh!!!!!!

Well, sing with me!  Sing for the years!
Sing for the laughter!  Sing for the tears!
Sing with me -- if just for today!
'Cause maybe tomorrow?  The good Lord'll take you away!

Sing with me!  Sing for the years!
Sing for the laughter!  Sing for the tears!
Sing with me -- if just for today!
'Cause maybe tomorrow?  The good Lord'll take you away ..."

-- "Dream On" by Aerosmith.

--------------------

Here are your 2019 NFL Season Predictions, broken down into five parts:

Part I: The Last Place Finishers
Part II: The Third Place Finishers
Part III: The Wild Card Contenders
Part IV: The Division Winners
Part V: The Postseason

Also, this is your Week One Power Poll.  As always, 32 is typical New York Jets bad, 1 is typical New England Patriots good.

Enjoy.

--------------------

Wild Card Games.

* 6 Buffalo Bills 21, at 3 Houston Texans 34.
(Saturday, January 4, 2020, 3:30pm CT (ABC / ESPN)).

A deceptively sneaky-good playoff opener, if only because the Bills have the defense to at least contain the Texans offense.  In the end, too much Deshaun Watson, too much JJ Watt, and too much noise in the finest facility I've ever attended a NFL game in.  (Seriously -- NRG Reliant is still as gorgeous and awesome today, as it was when I first stepped foot in there fifteen years ago.  Especially compared to that decrepit "Eighth Wonder of the World" next door.)

* 5 San Francisco 49ers 17, at 4 Dallas Cowboys 27.
(Saturday, January 4, 2020, 7pm CT (NBC)).

Yes please.  Do you realize these two haven't met in the postseason since the 1994 NFC Title Game?  That's ridiculous.  This needs to happen.  Here's hoping it will.

* 6 Green Bay Packers 31, at 3 Chicago Bears 30.
(Sunday, January 5, 2020, noon CT (FOX)).

It can't possibly be worse than the season opener.

* 5 Pittsburgh Steelers 24, at 4 New England Patriots 27 (OT).
(Sunday, January 5, 2020, 3:30pm CT (CBS)).

Another matchup we don't get nearly enough of, come January.  Also, no matter who wins this, it sets up one epic, awesome, "grab the popcorn!" Divisional Round game next week for said winner.

Divisional Round Games.

* 6 Green Bay Packers 34, at 1 Atlanta "Shane" Falcons 24.
(Saturday, January 11, 2020, 3:30pm CT (NBC)).

So ... I'll go there.  Is Dan Quinn the new 1990s 49ers head coach?  The dude who wins 10 games every year, gets his team to the playoffs every year, and every year faces a "win in the playoffs or you're fired" ultimatum?  I never thought it was fair to George Seifert, I never thought it was fair to Steve Mariucci either.  Although in defense of Eddie DeBartolo, if I had the talent of those 1990s 49ers squads, I'd settle for nothing less than a NFC Title Game appearance every year as well. 

If he is the new 1990s 49ers head coach, this game might seal his fate -- a non-competitive loss to an inferior team at home.

* 3 Houston Texans 38, at 2 Kansas City Chiefs 49.
(Saturday, January 11, 2020, 7pm CT (CBS)).

The first of what I pray is many, many playoff matchups between Deshaun and Patrick.  Let's hope for a day full of snow and little to no wind, ala the Colts playoff game last year.

* 4 New England Patriots 31, at 1 Cleveland Browns 23.
(Sunday, January 12, 2020, 2pm CT (CBS)).

Ooh boy!  Belichick returns to Cleveland!  The Browns host a playoff game!  Baker Mayfield vs Tom Brady, with a spot in the AFC Title Game on the line!  In the end, I trust Bill Belichick far more than I trust Freddie Kitchens.  That, and I believe that when a dynasty dies, it should die to a worthy successor.

* 4 Dallas Cowboys 31, at 2 Los Angeles Rams 20.
(Sunday, January 12, 2020, 5:30pm CT (FOX)).

I'll say it -- the better team wins.  Also, this is without question -- (allard baird voice) without question! -- the best Cowboys team since I lived there twenty plus years ago.  And just like the 1995, 1996 Cowboys?  The weakest link is the one wearing the headset.

Conference Championship Games.

* 4 New England Patriots 31, at 2 Kansas City Chiefs 37 (OT).
(Sunday, January 19, 2020, 2pm CT (CBS)).

If revenge is a dish best served cold ... then let's hope it's not as cold as it was last January 20th.  Because in the words of the (apparently) immortal Ric Flair: "to be the man?  You gotta beat the man!  WOO!"

And that's what this season is about here in Kansas City: unfinished business.  It's about rectifying the outrageous wrong Dee Ford's offside brain fart was.  It's about righting the wrong of the outcome of the coin flip to start overtime.  It's about the Chiefs joining those people (2005, 2013, 2015), the Colts (2006), the Ravens (2009, 2012), and the Jets (2010), as the only teams to beat Belichick's Patriots in the AFC postseason.  It's about stopping their Super Bowl appearance streak at three, and beginning our streak.

Seriously, when I think Patriots, this comes to mind.  It's time to end their run.  It's time to send them packing to the retirement home, where they can act like spoiled toddlers that sh*t their pants over every other team's defeat -- you know, like the 1972 Dolphins do every year.

I refuse to say it's our time, because #2012royals ... but yeah.  It's Chiefs time. 

Lamar's Trophy is coming home.

* 6 Green Bay Packers 31, at 4 Dallas Cowboys 35.
(Sunday, January 19, 2020, 5:40pm (FOX)).

Every one of us raised on this sport in the late 1980s / early to mid 1990s (hey, that's me!) will probably nut if this matchup occurs.  Even post-Favre and post-Triplets, they've already given us two playoff classics in this decade (the 2014 Dez Bryant "non-catch" Divisional Round game; the 2016 38-31 Divisional Round game that saw four scores inside the last four minutes ... including two 50 plus yard field goals inside of a minute to play).

Which gives us ...

Super Bowl LIV.

* 2 Kansas City Chiefs 38, 4 Dallas Cowboys 27.
(Sunday, February 2, 2020, 5:20pm CT (FOX)).

And thus, the lyrics to this post finally reach the point.

We've waited our whole lives for this, Chiefs fans.

Sing with me.
Sing for the years.
Sing for the laughter.
Sing for the tears.

Sing with me,
If just for today.
And maybe tomorrow?
The Good Lord'll take us away.

Starting today?  And every day until about 9pm on February 2nd?  It's dream on!  (Or, as I used to say, "season f*cking on!")

Because come 9pm February 2nd?  We begin planning the biggest party this town has ever seen.  And considering one out of every three people in the metropolitan area descended on Union Station for the Royals victory parade ... sweet Jesus.  Can you even imagine what the Crossroads and Union Hill are gonna look like when the Lombardi comes driving down Grand Boulevard next February? 

I can't wait to see the image become reality ...

Saturday, September 7, 2019

stevo's 2019 nfl predictions: the wild card contenders

"There's something wrong with the world today;
I don't know what it is.
There's something wrong with our eyes.

We're seeing things in a different way,
And God knows it ain't His.
It sure ain't no surprise.

We're living on the edge!
Living on the edge!
Living on the edge!
Living on the edge!

There's something wrong with the world today;
The light bulb's getting dim.
There's meltdown in the skies.

If you can judge a wise man
By the color of his skin?
Then mister, you're a better man than I.

We're living on the edge!
(You can't help yourself from falling!)
Living on the edge!
(You can't help yourself at all!)
Living on the edge!
(You can't help yourself from falling!)
Living on the edge!
(You can't help yourself at all!) ...

-- "Living on the Edge" by Aerosmith.

--------------------

Here are your 2019 NFL Season Predictions, broken down into five parts:

Part I: The Last Place Finishers
Part II: The Third Place Finishers
Part III: The Wild Card Contenders
Part IV: The Division Winners
Part V: The Postseason

Also, this is your Week One Power Poll.  As always, 32 is typical New York Jets bad, 1 is typical New England Patriots good.

Enjoy.

--------------------

16. those people.
Last Year: 6-10-0, 3rd Place, AFC West.
Prediction: 8-8-0, 2nd Place, AFC West.

I have them losing all four road games after their bye (@ Vikings, @ Bills, @ Chiefs, @ Texans).  Win any of those, and they're your six seed.  Especially if that win is the Bills roadie.

15. Jacksonville Jaguars.
Last Year: 5-11-0, Last Place, AFC South.
Prediction: 9-7-0, 2nd Place, AFC South.

Another team I have dropping every road game after their bye, when winning just one of them could mean the postseason.  Especially if that one is against either the Colts or the Titans.

14. Philadelphia Eagles.
Last Year: 9-7-0, 2nd Place, NFC East.
Postseason: W Wild Card 16-14 (@ Bears); L Divisional Round 14-20 (@ Saints).
Prediction: 10-6-0, 2nd Place, NFC East.

It's a clusterf*ck at 10-6 in the NFC, and the Eagles are one of the two that get screwed.  Along with ...

13. New Orleans Saints.
Last Year: 13-3-0, NFC South Champions.
Postseason: W Divisional Round 20-14 (vs Eagles); L Conference Championship 23-26 (OT) (vs Rams).
Prediction: 10-6-0, 2nd Place, NFC South.

I have them going 2-6 away from the Dome.  That dooms them to picking 20th next April.

Which leads us to our four wild cards, two per conference ...

12. Buffalo Bills.
Last Year: 6-10-0, 3rd Place, AFC East.
Prediction: 10-6-0, 2nd Place, AFC East; Sixth Seed AFC.

This was the tiebreaker that came down to strength of victory.  But it wasn't between the Bills, and who you might expect.

11. Green Bay Packers.
Last Year: 6-9-1, 3rd Place, NFC Norris.
Prediction: 10-6-0, 2nd Place, NFC Norris; Sixth Seed NFC.

Although after Thursday night, I might want to flip who I have 1-2 in the Norris.  I have them both at 10-6.

10. San Francisco 49ers.
Last Year: 4-12-0, 3rd Place, NFC West.
Prediction: 10-6-0, 2nd Place, NFC West; Fifth Seed NFC.

I'm not sure what's more full of sh*t with this prediction -- the streets of San Francisco, or me.  I just really like this team this year.  And I have them at ten wins with a gigantic upset loss at Fake RFK, that's how much I believe in these guys.

9. Pittsburgh Steelers.
Last Year: 9-6-1, 2nd Place, AFC Norris.
Prediction: 10-6-0, 2nd Place, AFC Norris; Fifth Seed AFC.

Addition by subtraction baby!

Up next: your divisional winners.  Six of whom are repeats from last season.  Plus the schedule runs, to show how I arrived at your team's projected record(s) ...

Saturday, October 4, 2014

week five: tomorrow trumps ...

“I know it’s not my fault;
I did my best.
God knows this heart of mine?
Could use a rest!

But more and more I find?
The dreams I left behind?
Are somehow too real,
To replace …

Oh, last night?  I didn’t
Get to sleep at all – no, no, no!
The sleeping pill I took?
Was just a waste of time.

I couldn’t close my eyes,
‘Cause you were on my mind.

And last night?
I didn’t get to sleep,
I didn’t get to sleep,
No, I didn’t get to sleep at all! …”


--------------------

Last Week ATS: 7-5-1.
Season to Date ATS: 28-32-1.

Last Week SU: 7-6-0.
Season to Date SU: 35-26-0.

Last Week “Screw You Pete King” Upset / Week: perfection.
Season to Date Upset / Week ATS: 2-2-0.
Season to Date Upset / Week SU: 2-2-0.
This Week’s “Screw You Pete King” Upset / Week: Jets (+6 1/2) over Chargers.

As always, all lines below brought to you via USA Today from Stevo’s Site Numero Dos’ Official Oddsmaker, Danny Sullivan.  Danny Sullivan: cursing my name for mentioning him since 1991!!!!!

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Gotta be honest folks, this one probably isn’t gonna be great.  Here’s how my sleeping pattern (and sports pattern) went this last week:

Sunday: went to sleep about 1am.
Monday: woke up about 7am.  PTO Day.  Chiefs 41, Patriots 14.  Went to bed a little after 2am.
Tuesday: woke up about 7am.  PTO Day.  Royals 9, A’s 8 (12) -- the single greatest sporting event I've ever been privileged enough to attend.  Did not ever go to sleep.
Wednesday: worked a full day.  Had coworkers commenting that "you aren't moving around too well there, Stevo.  Tired?"  Fell asleep watching Giants / Pirates game around 7:30pm.
Thursday: woke up about 4am.  Worked ten hours.  Royals 3, Angels 2 (11).  Went to bed about 2am.
Friday: woke up at 6am.  Worked nine hours.  Royals 4, Angels 1 (11).  Went to bed about 3am.
Saturday: woke up at 9am.  Day.  Of.  Rest.  And.  Recovery.

For the first time in my life I can recall?

Football is not my sports focus, on the first weekend in October.  And that’s a damned good thing …

--------------------

The Non-Jets, Non-Chiefs Fling Its:


* Byes: Snowflakes, raiders.  A fond farewell to "drunk" dennis allen, fired as the raiders head coach after another Bob Knight Memorial "You Might As Well Relax And Enjoy It" Defeat overseas.  In honor of "drunk" denny, here's the list of illustrious leaders who have led the "just win baby!" silver and black, since the return to oakland twenty years ago:

1995: mike white (8-8-0).  Opened 8-2.  #justwinbaby

1996: mike white (7-9-0).  Never better than .500.  white fired (15-17-0).

1997: joe bugle (4-12-0).  Chet McGlockton openly lobbies Marty during the game, to sign him in the offseason.  Sadly, we did.  bugle fired (4-12-0).

1998: jon gruden (8-8-0).  Uh oh.


2000: jon gruden (12-4-0).  Lost AFC Title Game.

2001: jon gruden (10-6-0).  The Tuck Rule Game.  gruden traded to Tampa (38-26-0 regular season; 2-2-0 postseason).

2002: "sur" william callahan (11-5-0).  Lost Super Bowl.

2003: "sur" william callahan (4-12-0).  "sur" william calls his team "the dumbest team in America".  "sur" william fired (15-17-0 regular season; 2-1-0 postseason).  This is the last time I will have to designate between "regular" and "post" season records.

2004: norval eugene turner (5-11-0).  Improvement!

2005: norval eugene turner (4-12-0).  norval fired (9-23-0).

2006: art shell (2-14-0).  Lost first five, and last nine.  shell poop canned (2-14-0).

2007: lane kiffin (4-12-0).  Lost ten of last twelve.

2008: lane kiffin (1-3-0); tom cable (3-9-0).  The infamous Al Davis Presser that was so epically awesome, I'm capitalizing a man once (correctly) described to his face by Carl Peterson as "all class.  Except without the c, and without the l".  kiffin (5-15-0) gonezo.

2009: tom cable (5-11-0).  Upset at fake mile high on Sunday Nighter cost donkeys a playoff berth (aww, that's rough.  Awww ....)

2010: tom cable (8-8-0).  Upset at Arrowhead cost Chiefs first round bye.  cable fired (16-28-0).

2011: hue jackson (8-8-0).  Upset at Arrowhead cost Chiefs division championship.  jackson fired (8-8-0).

2012: "drunk" dennis allen (4-12-0).  Nothing notable.

2013: "drunk" dennis allen (4-12-0).  Where 3rd and 48 happens.

2014: "drunk" dennis allen (0-4-0); Tony Sparano (0-0-0).  Yes, this is twice in six years, the raiders have fired their head coach BEFORE OCTOBER!  #prideandpoise

Only two head coaches in twenty years post a winning record.  jon gruden ... and "sur" william callahan.

* at Packers 31, Vikings (+9) 28.  When I tweeted this pick, then walked in the front door two hours later and saw it was already 21-0 Packers, and Christian Ponder was on the field, all I could think of was Phil Hartman in “Greedy”:


* Bears (+2 1/2) 26, at Panthers 13.  Statement game for both teams.  Could (should?) have hu-yuge wildcard ramifications come late December.

* Browns (+1) 45, at Titans 3.  "Gordon Shumway Game O' The Week!"

* at Eagles (-6 1/2) 41, Rams 10.  "Good Times Game O' The Week!"

* at Giants (-4) 31, Falcons 14.  If the Monday Nighter wasn't so awful, this might get a designation.  Also, there's another game to come awful enough, that I might have to give out a fourth designation, that I despise giving out, I hate the show so much ...

* at Saints 23, Bucs (+10) 20.  Too many points.

* at Cowboys (-6 1/2) 42, Texans 14.  Too much Ryan Fitzpatrick.

* at Lions (-6 1/2) 38, Bills 13.  (Pause).  I don't want to.  (Pause).  I really, really, really don't want to.  (Pause).  It is the WORST TELEVISION SHOW OF ALL TIME, for God's sake.  (Pause).  At least we made it to week five, before hauling this out of Kermit Gosnell's clinic.  Ladies and gentlemen?  Your "One Day At A Time Game O' The Week!":


* Ravens (+3 1/2) 27, at Colts 20.  This one should be special.

* at Jaguars (+6) 21, Steelers 20.  Love the Jags in this spot.  

* "Super" Cardinals (+7 1/2) 24, at broncos 13.  The better team wins.  Yeah, I said it.  The better team in this game, is not the squad of satan.

* Bengals (+1) 26, at Patriots 21.  Remember 2006, when everyone kept picking the Steelers to rally, because after all, they're the Steelers, only they kept losing week after week, and looking worse each time out?  That's the 2014 Patriots.  If they win the AFC East, it's only because the Jets and Bills and Dolphins are that sucky.

* Seahawks (-7) 49, at Redskins 3.  If Mr. Obama ever wanted to sneak out and attend a football game, this is his week to do it ... because nobody's gonna be watching this stink bomb.

--------------------

The Tailgating Plans:

There are no The Tailgating Plans, due to this being a Chiefs road game.

--------------------

The Poem:

There is no The Poem, due to this being a Chiefs road game.

--------------------

The Watching Party Plans:

As of posting, there are no The Watching Party Plans.  Although I'm sure the default "everyone's welcome at The Second Parents" plan is what will occur.

--------------------

The Voice of Reason's, Uuh, Reason:

To be posted when (or if) received from Mr. Reason.  As always, his thoughts will only be edited for font size, and text formatting.

--------------------

The "Klassy" Kevin Keitzman Tweet O' The Week:

Giving him a pass.  He's been pretty awesome on Twitter the last two nights, actually.  When he actually shows his passion for real, rather than faking it for ratings?  You can actually see faint glimpses of the "Klassy" Kevin of 1999 leading The Walkout.  

You know, the Klassy One, before that (alleged) night in Mission Hills, before the rank hypocrisy, before turning every show into a staged promotional event that has destroyed whatever credibility he once had with this town's sports fanbase.

It's always good to see the formerly great ones, tap into that greatness one last time.

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The Jets Best Guess:

I cannot explain this pick.  I am not going to even attempt to defend it.  

The Jets are in abject free-for-all, they look dead, lifeless, look like a "dead coach walking", in a division dominated by the Patriots, with a semi-decent Bills and Dolphins team to contend with as well.  It's only October, and it looks over, headed to San Diego, coming off a crushing home defeat to less than a stellar NFC North power.

(Pause).

That previous paragraph?

(Gulp) Twenty five year old me, would have typed in October 2002, as a 2-5 Jets squad headed to San Diego.

All that gave us?  Was this instant classic:


As much as I love "Fat" Andy Reid ... God, I miss Herm.  So in honor of the Coach, I'll take the same score as that cross-country trip twelve years ago, as my pick.

* Jets (+6 1/2) 44, at Chargers 13.  A game that led to a 7-2 finish, one of the greatest moments in franchise history*, and the most lopsided defeat of alleged all-time great satan manning's career, a 41-0 tuning to open the 2002 Playoffs.

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(*: that moment?  Week Seventeen.  Packers at Jets.  The AFC Playoff picture entering that week, was a clusterf*ck the likes of which, not even I could dream up.  There were three teams alive for the AFC East championship (Dolphins, Patriots, Jets).  There were seven squads alive for the final wildcard (those three, plus the Chiefs, Chargers, Browns and broncos).

By the time Sunday arrived, the Chiefs were out, as they lost on Saturday.  Entering Sunday, the Dolphins controlled their own destiny for the division -- win at Foxboro, and they were in.  A Dolphins win would eliminate the Jets (and Pats), and would mean denver controlled its own destiny.  A Patriots win would eliminate the Dolphins (but not the Jets), and the broncos ... but they'd still need a Jets loss and/or a Browns loss, to get in.  

About 3pm CT, the Browns had just won in Cleveland, which eliminated the Chargers and broncos, and ensured Cleveland had the last wildcard.  Which meant we were down to one spot, with three teams vying for it.

If Miami won?  They won the East.
If New England won?  They'd win the East, with a Jets loss.
If the Jets won?  They'd win the East, with a Dolphins loss.

The current score?  Dolphins 24, Patriots 13, with barely three to play.  And Miami had the ball to boot.

This extremely dejected Jets fan, was beyond despondent, as the Jets didn't kick off until 3:15.  If there was one thing EVERY Jets fan entered confident of that final Sunday of the season, it's that the Patriots would beat Miami, in Foxboro, in the cold and snow.  

Then ... something started happening.

(I should note: I scoured Youtube! for any of the moments about to unfold.  Nothing.  Even the old NFL PrimeTime clips have been yanked.  Truly tragic.)

The Patriots somehow got the ball back.  They somehow got a touchdown.  They somehow converted the two.  They somehow got the ball back.  They somehow kicked a field goal.  They somehow forced overtime.

Meanwhile, in the Real Meadowlands, the Jets and Packers are off to a sluggish start.  After all -- at kickoff?  It looked like neither team had a damned thing to play for.  Green Bay had already won the NFC Norris, and knew it was hosting Atlanta to open the playoffs.  And Miami was up 11 with 3 to play; the Jets were toast.

It was 7-7, early second quarter.  Herm had ordered no updates from outside games be shown, no scores be posted, other than the Jets and Packers score.  The Jets take a timeout, and (in the interest of full disclosure, my favorite non-Chiefs player of all time) quarterback Chadwick Pennington trots to the sideline to confirm with Herm.

And then ... pandemonium.

Because a brave scoreboard operator, puts up the live feed from Foxboro.  Adam Vinatieri, lined up, to win it in overtime.  On the sideline, Herm and Chad look up, and immediately the conversation is over.  All eyes focused on the video board.

The kick.  It's up.  It's ... it's good!  It's good!  Holy sh*t, the Jets are alive!  The Jets are alive!  The Jets control their own destiny!

And as every damned person in that stadium started losing their collective sh*t, I'll never forget what happened next.

Because Herm Edwards -- and there is a saying, that "he who keeps his head while everyone else loses theirs?  The world is his" -- Herm grabs Chad Pennington by the helmet, yanks him back, and as Mr. Pennington recalled after the game, Herm had five words for him.

"Go win us a championship!"

The next play?  Pennington.  Santana "Doo Doo Doo Do Doo!" Moss.  Sixty plus yards.  Touchdown.

Jets 42, Packers 17.

AFC East Championship?  Delivered.  After opening 2-5.  After the crushing defeat in Chicago to fall to 7-7.  After New England trailed by multiple scores inside of three minutes to play.  Championship?  Delivered.

And that, peoples and peepettes?  Is just one reason why I love sports, so damned much.)

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The Chiefs Prognostication (and Commentary):

When the Chiefs traded for Alex Smith, I wrote the following:


I ask you, Chiefs fans, do you regret the trade?

Because I don't.

Because that trade -- coupled with the James Shields trade?

Allows tomorrow to trump ...

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I'm not exactly a Barack Obama supporter.  You couldn't get me to vote for him, if you had five Cuyahoga County union thugs drag me into a rigged polling booth at gunpoint.  Having said that ...

This?

This ... was awesome:


"Now, my press secretary, Josh Earnest, is from Kansas City.  Now, he has made the observation, that the Royals are advancing.  (Applause).  That the Chiefs, uuh, kind of made the Patriots look kind of bad on Monday night.  (More applause, and happy laughs).  And, so ... clearly, something's going on in Kansas City."

Clearly, something's going on, in Kansas City.

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I had intended this week's commentary, to be a look back, at two events that occurred over the next couple days -- one tragically ten years ago, one tragically one year ago.  Ten years ago on Sunday, we lost Randy.  One year ago on Monday, we lost my Dad.

Thankfully, we've still got Dad ... even if we lost him twice in an hour, and then for three days.  But we've still got him.  Thank God, I've still got him.

I think I'll save my thoughts on how I feel about each anniversary, for later, because as President Obama noted -- clearly, something's going on ... in Kansas City.

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The only way Sunday could be topped at this point, is if the Chiefs were hosting the 49ers at noon.  That is the ONLY way Sunday's hype and potential, could possibly be topped.

Monday night, I walked into Arrowhead, and every time someone would bring up how sweet beating the Patriots ass like a freaking drum was, I'd simply say "tomorrow trumps tonight.  Somehow?  Tomorrow trumps tonight."

Here we are again.  Alex Smith heads to the Bay, to exact revenge for the resurgent Chiefs against a reeling 49ers squad.

And about the time that one ends, the single biggest Royals game of my memorable lifetime will see first pitch from James Shields, as the Royals host the Angels, seeking to reach the American League Divisional Series for the first time since I was in second grade.

Monday night was epic.  (Note: the recap's coming, I swear.)

Tuesday night, was so unbelievable, all I could do was cry.  Hell, it was so unbelievable, I couldn't sleep.

But Sunday?

Sunday?  

Twenty four hours from now?

Tomorrow trumps ... 

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If you're going tomorrow night, be loud.  How you can possibly top the insane asylum we created on Tuesday, I have no idea.  I wish I could be there.  Quite frankly, I can't afford it.  If that dude in "Airplane" picked the wrong week to quit sniffing glue?  I picked the wrong week to need to see the eye doctor for new contacts and glasses.  I just can't justify the cost for Sunday.  I could do Sunday or Tuesday.  I stand by my decision.

Oh, and mad props to the Chiefs organization, for showing the Chiefs / 49ers "warm-up game" on the video boards, as Royals fans get ready for a game that simply thinking about, makes me start crying all over again.

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It was noted on Tuesday night, the noise after Sal Perez won the single most amazing, incredible, unbelievable sporting event I have ever attended, the crowd noise was so loud, so atmosphere-shattering, that you could hear it in Waldo, over ten miles away.  

I live about six miles south of the Sports Complex.  I'm basically off 87th and Blue Ridge.  (The Sports Complex, for those of you not from Kansas City, is at about 43rd and Blue Ridge.)

I can't wait to hear you, about ... well, I was going to say 9:30, but let's be honest here, the Royals love to drag out the drama.  Whoever the dude or dudette is that runs TNT, should hire the Royals, because they know drama.  They know BOOM.  

But I can't wait, to open my back patio door, when Greg Holland ends this in style -- or when some new "wow, that greatest farm system ever didn't pan ou ... holy sh*t!  Sal Perez game winner!  Holy sh*t!  Moose went yard!  Holy sh*t!  HOSMER!!!!" hero emerges tomorrow (for the record, my money is on the prospect that has completely panned out, Alex Gordon, being that hero tomorrow.  Because that's what Gordon do), when that moment emerges?

I can't wait to open that back patio door, raise 13 and the frosty cold Coors Light he's protecting, and just soak in the noise.

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Tomorrow?

Tomorrow trumps everything.

This is going to be the greatest sports day in Kansas City's history.  At least in my rememberable lifetime.

Tomorrow trumps everything.  (When it comes to sports, at least.)

Because clearly, something's going on, in Kansas City.  And if even Mr. Obama can see something's going on here?

Who are we to miss it?

Get ready for another long night, Kansas City.  We haven't been to bed before midnight for the last week.  What's one more sleepless night?

Especially one as exciting and memorable, as this one might be.

(Pause).

Scratch that.  Let me rephrase that.

Especially one as exciting and memorable, as this one?

Will be.

* Chiefs (+5) 24, at 49ers 17.  Week 2 1994 Memorial Score.  And God help you, if you're a Chiefs fan, and don't remember that one.

* at Royals 6, Angels 5 -- in regulation for once.  Game 3 1985 ALDS Memorial Score.  How I wish to God, as a Royals fan, I could remember that one.

Because I'll never forget 11:53pm Tuesday, September 30, 2014? 

For as long as God allows me to live.

And I'm guessing most of you, won't either ...

week twelve picks

The Statisticals. Last Week SU: 8-6-0. Season to Date SU: 98-62-1. Last Week ATS: 7-7-0. Season to Date ATS: 75-80-6. Last Week Upset / ...