a fond fair look back part uno

"Now it's morning,
And the phone rings.
You say you've gotta get your things together;
You just gotta leave, before you change your mind.

But if you knew
What I was thinking girl?
I'd turn around!
If you'd just ask me one more time ...

Don't fall in love with a dreamer!
'Cause he'll always take you in.
Just when you think you've really changed him?
He'll leave you again!

Don't fall in love with a dreamer!
'Cause he'll break you every time!
So put out the light, and just hold on --
Until we say goodbye! ..."

-- "Don't Fall In Love With a Dreamer" by Kenny Rogers and Kim Carnes.  God bless, losing Kenny was a blow, in a year full of them so far ...

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So, to my KC readers, how are you loving this shelter in place crap?

Personally, I hate it.  I may be biased given where I live (I live in this awesome part of Kansas City known as Waldo, for those reading this that aren't familiar with Kansas City), but it's beyond depressing to see The Well has removed the tents ... and nobody's on the rooftop.  To see that the Saturday market at Border Star is still open ... but all the sh*t that is usually sold that makes it so worth the trip a few Saturday's a month, isn't available.

It sucks to miss out on $2 margarita night at Chelly's every Monday.  $6 burger night at my home away from home (The Well) on Tuesday * .  Cheap taco night at Walsh's every Wednesday.  Trivia nights at Lew's.

You can't pick a day to enjoy lunch at Tasso's.  (The gyro is to kill for.)  Or pick a night to enjoy dinner at Waldo Thai Place.  (I think it's overpriced -- two solid glasses of pinot plus dinner sets me back fifty solid dollars just for me ... but have been told by chicas with far more competency at determining what a quality dinner costs, that getting out at pushing a (puff daddy voice) benjamin on a date, isn't unreasonable.  Probably explains why I'm 43 and woke up alone this morning.)

I hate missing happy hour at Patrick's Bar and No Grill.  I literally don't know what to do without my ultimate skillet this morning from Neighborhood Cafe.  Hell, this is one of the two times out of the year I'll at least give thought to attending Mass ... only Christ the King is shut down, during Lent for crying out loud.

At least we still have Max's open for business as usual, unchanged and unaffected by all this panic ... but even I can eat a tenderloin only so many times a week.

And as if all the local restaurants, bars and grills that make this part of town so incredible being all but closed isn't craptacular enough, in the last three months, we've lost three shopping destinations / institutions as well -- not to this damnable virus, but lost as in "dead".  Dave Smith the Lamp Maker, closed.  The Big Lots on Wornall, shut down with pretty much no notice.  And the hidden gem a lil' across the state line, the hidden Macy's in Prairie Village nobody seemed to know was there for fifty plus years, is gone-zo now to boot.

Needless to say, my biggest fear, is that Waldo may never recover from this, if it goes on another two months.

I pray that, as I so often am, that I am one hundred percent wrong, in my thoughts on that.

Because having said and noted that?

Glad you asked.

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(*: back in November, when dad had his latest (and God willing, last) "cardiac event", I took my mom to The Well for lunch on that first day.  She demanded I take her back the next day, because "that burger was incredible".  I may suck at a lot in life, but I know how to pick a bar worth being a regular at.  Especially if food is involved.  #barleys #lategreatzigandmacs #twisters #dirtybird #thewell #dailydouble)

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Every year, I post my NFL Predictions on this site.  Since 2008 (when this site was launched), you can go back and review what my thoughts were entering the season.  And most years since 2008, you get my weekly NFL predictions as well.  (Because (fidelity ad guy voice) why not.)

This past NFL season saw something you rarely if ever see out of me: competency.  Solid prognosticating.  Thirty nine games over .500 in the regular season straight up.  Twelve games above .500 against the spread.

Even in the playoffs, which if we're being honest here is a total crapshoot, I went one game above .500 straight up, and went .500 against the spread.  (Texans / Bills was a push.)

Picking the Chiefs, I went 14-5-0 straight up.  I went 13-6-0 against the spread.  (The one game difference was the game in Detroit back in Week Four.)

Meaning, that for likely the first time in the twelve years I've been making NFL picks on this site, you not only would have earned money simply betting my hunches ... but had you simply wagered a decent amount on my Chiefs beliefs, you'd have broken your bookie.  (Or at least shown him a level of love OJ Simpson never once failed, to show Nicole.)

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But as impressed as I am by my rare display of intelligence (at least weekly this past season) ... I am drop dead on the floor stunned, at my vision when it came to the season long predictions finalized way back on the day this past Chiefs season began.

(Here is your link to the final of the five full season predictions posts; you can access the previous four, at the top of that post.)

I may not believe in -- let alone practice -- much, when it comes to ethics and morality.  But I do try to believe in accountability.  And so, let's hold me accountable, for what I said would happen, seven months ago, shall we?

Let's begin with the bad and the ugly ... because for once?

There ain't much to report.

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Here's part of what I mean by "stunning results", even when it's in the "f*ck up and failure" file -- out of 32 teams, 8 of them, my predicted final record was off by three or more games.

That's not surprising, to be frank and honest.  But of those eight squads?  Three of them I picked to win ten or more games ... which all three did ... and I still was off by three games in each case!

So let's start with the predicted divisional finishes that I whiffed on by two or more spots.  (Meaning, I picked them last and finished at least second, or vice versa ... or I picked them first, and they finished third or worse, or vice versa.)

There were only five of these squads, and none of them finished more than two off my projection.  (So no "picked to finish last, and they won the division ... or picked to win the division, and they finished in the basement" flame-outs.  That's bueno.)  And those five are ...

* AFC East: none.  In fact, I got the AFC East order of finish 100% correct.

(We'll get to the gloating portion of my picks in the next post, Part Dos ... which will probably be a hell of a lot longer than Part Uno.  Note: this almost never, never happens, I'm that crappy of a prognosticator.)

* AFC Norris: Baltimore Ravens.  Look it, there is no team in the NFL I was more wrong about than your Baltimore Ravens.  I had them finishing third in the AFC Norris ... and to say I whiffed on their final record, well ... keep reading.  Again -- there is no team I was more wrong about, than your Baltimore Ravens.  Other than possibly ...

* AFC Norris: Cleveland Browns.  Like a moron, I bought the hype.  I had the Browns winning the AFC Norris at 11-5.  They finished third at 6-10.

* AFC South: Tennessee Titans.  I picked the Titans to finish dead last ... albeit it at 7-9.  The Titans finished in 2nd, at 9-7.

* AFC West: none.  A second division I got the order of finish 100% correct.  (Stevo patting himself on the back for knowing the division he's lived his life, uuh, living, really well!)

* NFC East: none.  I had first and second flip-flopped ... but like with the regular season, I did have the division coming down to the Week Sixteen showdown in Philly.

* NFC Norris: Chicago Bears.  I had the Bears winning the division at 10-6.  They finished third at 8-8.

* NFC South: none.  I bombed on taking a flyer on the "Shane" Falcons ... but they only finished one spot behind my projected finish.  (Inside the division, at least.)

* NFC West: Los Angeles Rams.  I had them winning the West at 11-5.  They finished third at 9-7, the first team out in the NFC.

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Perhaps even more important than picking a division finish, is picking a final record.  (Since after all, most of us reading this wager on the over / under for wins for at least a few squads in (earth wind and fire voice) September.)  As noted above, there were eight (out of thirty two) teams I whiffed on the win total for, by at least three games.  Five of those eight, I was off by three games exactly.  One I was off by four, one I was off by five, and one was, well ... we'll get to them.  Let's just say, I was off on them by a lot.

Here are those eight squads ...

* AFC East: none.  In many regards, I got no division more accurate in the 2019 season picks.  Save for possibly the AFC West.

* AFC Norris: Cleveland Browns.  I had the Browns finishing 11-5; they finished five games short of that mark at 6-10. 

But let's move on, because there was no team I was more wrong about than ...

* AFC Norris: Baltimore Ravens.  I feel like I should haul out a late-night commercial advertisement voice here, because I was wrong by not one!  Not two!  Not three!  Not four!

(Pause).

Sh*t, at this point, I should haul out the classic SNL commercial "Super Colon Blow" voice here ... because five?  No, guess again.  Six!  I'll give you one more chance.  Seven! 

Not even close.

Because I was nine -- nine! -- games off, from the Ravens final regular season record last season.  I said they'd go 5-11.  They went 14-2.  When you consider that two teams (Titans, Eagles) got in at 9-7 last year?  I literally was an entire playoff berth incorrect, on the Ravens record!  You could plow that Titans bandwagon through the variance between my predicted wins for the Ravens, and their actual wins ... and still not scrape the garage door tracks on either side, I was so insanely f*cking wrong!

I should be embarrassed by this whiff.  When we get to Part Dos, you'll understand why I'm really not that ashamed of it.  Because this is the only prediction I truly have reason, to be embarrassed over.

Moving on ...

* AFC South: Jacksonville Jaguars.  I had them at 9-7.  They finished 6-10.  Either way, I had them missing the playoffs, so not a gigantic debacle here.

* AFC West: none.  When we get to the next post about what I got right?  You'll drool over my knowledge of the Chiefs division, I think.

* NFC East: New York Giants.  I had them at 7-9; they finished 4-12.  I've predicted worse.  (See Ravens, Baltimore.)

* NFC South: Atlanta "Shane" Falcons.  Predicted 11-5.  Finished 7-9.  Whoops.

Finally, as noted farther up above ...

* The NFC Trio (one each from the Norris, South, and West): I had the Green Bay Packers, New Orleans Saints, and San Francisco 49ers all making the playoffs at 10-6. 

The good news is, they all did make the playoffs, and all hosted at least one game once they got there!

The problem is, they all finished 13-3, and created one hell of a clusterf*ck to figure out the final NFC seeding (which, to be fair, I predicted said clusterf*ck at 10-6) in real life!

I've said it before, and I'll say it again: ain't we lucky we got 'em?  Good Times!!!!!!!

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So, with the awful divisional picks, and craptacular season records out of the way, there's one last category to explore for f*ckupitude: playoff predictions.

And really, there's three that stand out, from those picks made seven months ago, and man, do they display f*ckupitude (which I guess is now a word?):

* The Cleveland Browns to have AFC Home Field Advantage.  And also ...
* The Atlanta "Shane" Falcons to have NFC Home Field Advantage.

Not only did neither team win their division, post a winning record, or gain a playoff berth ... they clearly were not their respective conferences top seeds.

But perhaps my biggest gaffe in the playoff predictions, was taking the Dallas Cowboys to the Super Bowl.  In my defense, I can't think of a single credible national (or D/FW local) pundit who thinks the Cowboys lack Super Bowl talent.  With Mike McCarthy now in charge on the sideline, they have no excuse to not get there at least once in the next three years. 

Because whatever one may think of the Mike McCarthy hire (personal opinion: it's not bad, but Dallas could have -- and should have -- done better ** ), let's ... hell, it's been a few months.

Let's play The Pyramid real quick, to end this post, shall we?

(pre-strokey dick clark voice) ready?  Go!
(markie post *** ) Jim Fassel.  Mike Martz.  "Sur" William Callahan.
(stevo) bad early 2000s coaches!
(markie post) Jim "Corpse" Caldwell.  Lovie Smith.
(stevo) god awful black coaches!
(markie post) No.  Well, yes, but ... Dan Quinn.  gary "krap of" kubiak.  Jeff "500" Fisher!
(stevo) worthless white coaches!
(markie post) Uuh ... John Fox.  Sean Payton.  "Chucky".  Tom Coughlin.  Mike Holmgren.  Mike McCarthy.
(stevo) competent white coaches!
(markie post) Wow ... uuh ... The Harbaugh brothers.  "Fat" Andy Reid.  Kyle Shanahan.  Brian Billick.  Barry Switzer!
(stevo) Super Bowl coaches!
(markie post) Yes!  Yes!  Yes!  (hugs all around as the confetti flies ... **** )

Jesus.  You look at that list of coaches who have, uuh, coached, in at least one Super Bowl since 1995?  No wonder (villiam valton voice) Vill Velichick has made nine of the last eighteen of them, as the AFC's representative.  Even I could outcoach some of those fine gentlemen.  I'm looking at you, "Sur" William.

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(**: in case you've forgotten, Mike McCarthy was the Chiefs QB coach from 1995-1998.  Meaning he botched the transfer from Montana to Bono, botched the transfer from Bono to Gannon, botched the transfer from Gannon to Grbac, then back to Gannon, then back to Grbac ... basically, the QB position was less stable than the San Andreas fault during his four years coaching the position.  And yet somehow, the Chiefs went 42-24 (counting playoffs) with two division titles, in those four years.  I guess some coaches really do fail forward!)

(***: so, apparently I was late to the party on this one ... but since this #kclockdown began, I've gotten into "Chicago PD" big time.  (I mean, when USA, ION, and (I think) Oxygen devote between them five days a week to showing the, uuh, show, I can get drawn in.)  Apparently, Markie Post plays the drop-dead gorgeous Sophia Bush's character's mom -- a drug-addicted crook named Bunny!  Who knew!  Markie Post is still alive and well, and now is playing a sleazy slutty chick named Bunny!  How bleeping awesome is that!  Now our kids get to suffer through what she considers to be "acting", like we had to in the 1980s!)

(****: also, I've been mocking "The Pyramid" on this site long before those "free free!  free!" commercials for whatever company does them, started doing them.  I demand royalties dammit!)

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The next post should be Part Dos of the look back at my 2019 NFL Predictions: a fond, fair look back at what I got right.  That post might top twenty printed pages, I so nailed my picks last year.

And when you haven't nailed anything but an insignificant random one-off in a few years, you compliment yourself for nailing it, every chance you can (rimshot!) ...