a fond fair look back part dos

"While she lays sleeping,
I stay out late at night,
And play my songs.

And sometimes, oh the nights,
Can be so long.
And it's good when I finally make it home,

All alone ...

While she lays dreaming.
I try to get undressed
Without the light.

And quietly she says,
How was your night?
And I come to her and say, it was alright,

And I hold her tight ...

And she believes in me!
I'll never know just what she sees in me!
I told her someday, if she was my girl?
I could change the world, with my little songs!

But I was wrong ...

Yet she has faith in me!
And so I go on trying faithfully!
And who knows -- maybe?  On some special night?
If my song is right?  I will find a way!

Find a way ..."

-- "She Believes in Me" by Kenny Rogers.  Gun to my head, it's my favorite song by Kenny.  If only because it so applies to my own life, far, far too many times in this life, so, uuh, far.  And also, the Scotty McCreary version from "Idol" is kick ass as well ...

--------------------

Last week, I took a fond, fair look back at all the 2019 NFL Predictions I got so, so incorrect.  You can re-read (or read for the first time) that post by clicking here.

Today?  We take a fond, fair look back at all the 2019 NFL Predictions I so, so nailed.  Buckle up kiddos.  This one could get lengthy.

--------------------

The three look-back categories are:

* Predicted Order of Finish (Division and Conference).
* Predicted Regular Season Record.
* Predicted Postseason Finish.

We'll begin with the first of those, and work our way through to the last.

--------------------

For the record, I got sixteen -- sixteen! -- out of the thirty two NFL teams finishing position inside their division exactly right.  Including the entire AFC East ... and the entire AFC West.  (Pause).  What?  (Pause).  (the late, great senator edward m. kennedy voice) You can bet your ass I picked the Los Angeles "Blooper" Chargers to finish dead last!  Maybe in five years, people will realize how awful an owner Dean Spanos is, how incompetent a general manager Tom Telesco is, and how inept of a coach Anthony Lynn is.  Until then, let the media continue to perform a sex act on the franchise every offseason!  It's always hilarious to watch in hindsight!

The teams I nailed the finishing position correctly for, by division:

* AFC East: Dolphins (4th), Jets (3rd), Bills (2nd), Patriots (1st).  Yes, a blind squirrel could have nailed the Dolphins and Patriots' finishes, and yes, even the most sanity challenged amongst us (hey, that's me!) could have tossed a coin and had it come up Bills over Jets.  But still.  I'll take victory where I can get it.

* AFC Norris: Bengals (4th), Steelers (2nd).  When all is said and done in a couple paragraphs for the AFC, you will see I nailed 12/16 divisional finishes.  That's damned impressive if you ask me.  Sh*t, that's damned impressive even if you don't ask me.

* AFC South: Colts (3rd), Texans (1st).  As a Chiefs fan, the AFC West should be my favorite division.  As a football fan, the AFC South is my favorite division.  Every year it's a clusterf*ck of Biblical proportions.  Every year, any team can win it -- they're all perfectly mediocre.  Any of them can go 6-10; any of them can go 10-6; none of them will do better than in between those two records.  It's ... well, in the words of the legendary Anthony J. Bruno: it's "beautiful".

* AFC West: Chargers (4th), raiders (3rd), those people (2nd), Chiefs (1st).  One would hope, after pushing forty years of unquestionable Chiefs fandom, that I'd know this division like I know the back of my left hand.  Which, sadly, I probably know too well.

* NFC East: Redskins (4th), Giants (3rd).  You know, I almost hate to do this, but it might be the last chance in at least my lifetime to have the opportunity, so here goes.  Thank you Daniel Snyder, thank you, for bringing "Sur" William Callahan back into our lives for three months.  I mean this with all due sincerity -- I fear our kids are going to fail to appreciate just how sh*tty a head coach Bill Callahan is.  Not was, not may become -- is.  He destroyed raider nation.  He destroyed Nebraska football. 

Again, with all seriousness -- how many coaches can claim they have destroyed one institutional franchise in the sport, one dynasty in the sport, one instantly recognizable program in the sport, let alone two!  The man so destroyed the raiders in two years that they went from AFC Champs, to one playoff berth in 18 years since.  The man took over a Nebraska program that hadn't failed to appear in a bowl since my parents were in junior high (and they're both in their seventies).  He promptly missed a bowl.  He missed two of them in his four years at the helm.  To "Sur" William's credit, he did win the Big XII North in 2006.  It is the last championship of ANY kind Nebraska has won. 

As a Chiefs fan who has experienced way too many lows prior to this past season (* cough 2012 cough *), you have to look for the positives in a lost season.  Getting to watch "Sur" Willy do his thing for the Redskins this past fall?  Was appointment television in the Casa de Stevo.

* NFC Norris: Lions (4th).  Back in the day (aka "two months ago"), when I still went into the office every morning versus working from home, I'd pass by the same homeless dude every morning at the bus stop at 39th and Broadway.  On nice mornings when I had the roof open and the windows down, you could hear him shouting at noone in particular, clearly off his meds.  (Or probably more accurately, on a med of some kind.)  I mention this, because even that crazy dude?

Would have picked the Detroit Lions, to finish dead last.  This is not an accomplishment or an achievement ... unless you count me giving in to common sense at long last to be an accomplishment and/or an achievement.  And on that, you might have a point.

* NFC South: none.  The division I clearly know nothing about.  I'd better bone up on it; the Chiefs play the NFC South this fall * .

(*: I haven't done my Chiefs Dream Schedule yet, because the NFL Schedule Release is still three weeks away.  But this scenario makes total sense to me, and will probably guide me in creating said Chiefs Dream Schedule over the next couple weeks, to be posted before the actual Schedule is released the first week of May.  Oh, and in this scenario linked in this footnote, I'd predict "Shane" Falcons at Chiefs if the season opens September 10th, and I'd predict Texans at Chiefs on Thursday Night Football in Week Five, if the opener is pushed back to then.)

* NFC West: "Super" Cardinals (4th).  The worst prognosticator you know (hey that's me!) couldn't screw this one up

* Conference Finish (Playoff Seed): Chiefs (2nd AFC).   I got exactly one conference seed right -- our Kansas City Chiefs.  That's it.  I got a lot of playoff teams right.  I even nailed an exact matchup, date, and time, in the season preview predictions for crying out loud.  But I got the seeds wrong on that matchup.  I guess if you're gonna get one right?  Make sure it's the team you pay thousands of dollars to support in person every year.

--------------------

When it comes to record predictions made last September, I nailed four teams exactly right.  I also had eight more within a game either way of their actual finish (ten if you count ties, and I'm going to, to make myself look even better than I already do.)

Teams Whose Records I Got Exactly Right:

* AFC East: Bills (10-6-0).  We're not done with Buffalo yet in this post.

* AFC Norris: none.  Considering I missed the Ravens finish by nine bleeping games, this is not even remotely surprising.

* AFC South: Colts (7-9-0).  Good luck with Phyllis guys.

* AFC West: raiders (7-9-0).  Good luck with Mariota guys.

* NFC East: Redskins (3-13-0).  You fire one incompetent Allen (Bruce); you trade for a mediocre (at best) one (Kyle).  In the words of Sonny and Cher: "the beat goes on".

* NFC Norris: none.  Can't say I'm surprised.

* NFC South: none.  This is the only division I failed to predict at least one team's final record, within one game of their actual record.  Again, gotta study up on these people before the regular season starts, considering we play this division this fall.

* NFC West: none.  Nobody's perfect.

Teams Whose Records I Got Within One Game Either Way:

* AFC East: Dolphins (Predicted 5-11-0 / Finished 4-12-0); Jets (Predicted 8-8-0 / Finished 7-9-0).  I nailed the AFC East order exactly.  Three of the four teams I either nailed their record exactly, or came within a game of nailing it.  And the only team whose record I whiffed on, I missed by two games.  Not too shabby.  Also, you can just copy this paragraph when we get to the AFC West, because the exact same thing is true for that division.

* AFC Norris: Bengals (Predicted 3-13-0 / Finished 2-14-0).  Poor Joe Burrow.  He deserves better than this sad sack franchise.

* AFC South: Texans (Predicted 11-5-0 / Finished 10-6-0).  Poor Deshaun Watson.  He deserves better than this rapidly deteriorating situation.

* AFC West: those people (Predicted 8-8-0 / Finished 7-9-0); Chiefs (Predicted 11-5-0 / Finished 12-4-0).  Quick -- can you name the last team other than those people or the Chiefs to win the division ... and the year they did it?  (Hint: it's been over a decade.)  And ... time.  The answer?  Your "Blooper" Chargers in 2009.  I don't see the dominance of the Chiefs and/or those people over this division ending before at least 2021 ... and that presumes the raiders find a semi-competent quarterback.

* NFC East: Eagles (Predicted 10-6-0 / Finished 9-7-0).  Three straight playoff appearances despite Carson Wentz' inability to stay healthy.  That's some solid coaching right there.

* NFC Norris: Lions (Predicted 2-14-0 / Finished 3-12-1); Vikings (Predicted 9-7-0 / Finished 10-6-0).  I never thought I'd type these words, but after the last two years in Detroit, it's a fair question to ask: did Jim "Corpse" Caldwell actually know what he was doing?  Could it be that Ol' Corpsy wasn't that bad of a head coach?  Or is Matt Patricia that f*cking retarded at his job?  (Pause).   Yeah, it's gotta be the latter.  There's no way Jimbo was competent.

* NFC South: none.  As noted, I know nothing about this division.

* NFC West: "Super" Cardinals (Predicted 4-12-0 / Finished 5-10-1).  I have a good buddy who lives in Arizona, is a Cardinals season ticket holder, and to say he's excited about the "Super" Cardinals future, is an understatement.  He should be excited.  They're at least catching and passing the Rams this fall.

--------------------

Finally, the Postseason.

Playoff Teams I Got Right:

* AFC East: Patriots, Bills.  We're still not done with the Bills yet.

* AFC Norris: none.  You whiff on the Ravens by nine games, and the Browns by five, you're probably not getting the division right.

* AFC South: Texans.  He may be a god-awful general manager, but as long as Bill O'Brien is the head coach, you can mark the Texans down to host the postseason opener with a sharpie.  Because as long as Bill O'Brien roams the sidelines, the Texans are winning the AFC South.

* AFC West: Chiefs.  Peoples and peppettes?  We aren't through with the Chiefs yet either.  And man -- ain't we lucky we got 'em?  Good Times!!!!

* NFC East: none.  My NFC Postseason picks were, uuh, atrocious.

* NFC Norris: Packers.  The only NFC Postseason pick I was remotely successful in seeing occur.

* NFC South: none.  If my life depended on predicting the NFC South, I'd have been dead nine months ago.

* NFC West: 49ers.  I was far higher on the 49ers than most folks, but not even I saw their postseason run coming.

Playoff Predictions I Got Right:

* Bills at Texans to Open the Postseason.  I got the teams, the location, and the time slot exactly correct for the Postseason's first game.  I should probably bet the ponies, puppies, roosters, and/or rubber chickens more, because that's one hell of a trifecta to nail.

* Chiefs over Texans in Divisional Round.  I not only got this pick right ... but I had the Chiefs scoring 49.  They scored 51.  I had the Texans scoring 38.  They scored 31.  Meaning I had both teams within a score of where they finished.  Circle me impressed Bert.  Circle me impressed.

* Packers Losing the NFC Title Game.  I had them falling to Dallas, not San Francisco, but hey -- I got the outcome right!

* Chiefs Winning the AFC Championship.  I had them beating the Patriots, not the Titans, but hey -- I got the outcome right!

* Chiefs Winning the Super Bowl by Exactly 11 Points.  Again, I was off by a score: I had the final at 38-27 instead of 31-20 ... but still.  I got the outcome and margin of victory right!

--------------------

And so, (mitch holtgus voice) for all intents and purposes, 2019 now has the book shut on it on this site.  There's still a few things ** I might go back and blog about ... but what I wanted to post, I pretty much have. 

(**: I really want to recap the trip to Nashville, and I'd love to do a "running diary" of how I spent the 4th Quarter of the Super Bowl.  I just don't know where I'll find the time ... or more specifically, the energy, to do it.  Because both that weekend in Nashville, and that fourth quarter, were one hell of a roller coaster ride.)

It's time to look forward to (barbara walters voice) 2020.  The first wave of free agency is all but over, and the Chiefs somehow -- despite having less cap room at one point than I have money in my checking account, and no, I don't have a comma in my bank balance most days -- somehow, the Chiefs are returning 19 of 22 starters next fall.  The Draft is in five days, and either Brett Veach will finally pull the trigger on a first round pick ... or he'll trade it to gain more capital (which I hope he does).  The Schedule Release is in three weeks; I wish it was sooner, given how cheap flights and hotel bookings are right now *** , because the Chiefs travel to Tampa and New Orleans this fall, and I want to make at least one of those two, if not both.

(***: my brother and I were looking at bookings for Vegas in mid to late May.  Right now you can get a room at $17 / night come May 15th at The Flamingo.  That is crazy insane.  And yes, I would risk my life to play some pai gow or blackjack right now.  Kansas City has shut down 2.5 million people to accommodate 1,500.  This shutdown is f*cking nuts, it is f*cking indefensible, it is probably unconstitutional, and it needs to end yesterday.  #reopennow)

As much fun as 2019 was though, there's one thing to never forget, Chiefs fans.  One thing nobody can ever take away from us.

Cue the Queen Voice!

We are the Champions!
We are the Champions!
No time for (those people),
Because we are the Champions?

Of the world ...