Showing posts with label week ten picks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label week ten picks. Show all posts

Thursday, November 12, 2020

week ten picks

The Statisticals.

Last Week SU: 7-7-0.
Season to Date SU: 79-53-1.

Last Week ATS: 4-10-0.
Season to Date ATS: 62-67-4.

Last Week Upset / Week: another disaster.
Season to Date Upset / Week SU: 2-7-0.
Season to Date Upset / Week ATS: 3-6-0.
This Week Upset / Week: remember in the good old days, when Chris Berman would be like 20-40 at midseason on his picks, so he'd just start increasing the number of games he picked to try to improve his record by cheating?  Consider this my attempt to do that, because I'm taking three 'dogs this week outright.  Titans (+1) over Colts -- Phyllis Rivers is done.  Giants (+3) over Eagles -- who doesn't want the winner of the NFC Least to finish at 5-10-1 or 5-11?  And Bears (+2 1/2) over Vikings -- Kirk Cousins is 0-9 on Monday Night Football, and I think that stink streak continues.  

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The Week Ten Picks.

Byes: Chiefs, Cowboys, Jets, "Shane" Falcons.

* at Titans (+1) 31, Colts 14.
* at Lions (-3 1/2) 24, Redskins 14.
* at Browns (-3) 27, Texans 21.
* at Packers (-13) 45, Jaguars 13.
* Giants (+3) 13, at Eagles 10.
* Bucs 27, at Panthers (+5 1/2) 24.
* at raiders (-4) 35, those people 27.
* at "Super" Cardinals (-2) 41, Bills 34.
* at Dolphins (-1) 31, "Super" Chargers 24.
* at Steelers 24, Bengals (+7 1/2) 23.
* at Rams (-1 1/2) 30, Seahawks 20.
* at Saints (-9) 34, 49ers 13.
* Ravens 34, at Patriots (-7) 31.
*at Bears (+2 1/2) 16, Vikings 9.

Friday, November 9, 2018

week ten: this is our now ...

"There was a time,
I packed my dreams away.
Living in a shell,
Hiding from myself ...

There was a time,
When I was so afraid.
I thought I'd reached the end,
But baby that was then --

For I am made of more?
Than my yesterdays!

This is my now!
And I am breathing in the moment!
As I look around?
I can't believe the love I see!

My fears behind me!
Gone are the shadows and doubt!
That was then --
This is my now ...

I had to decide,
Was I going to play it safe?
Or look somewhere deep inside,
To try to turn the tide,

And try to find the strength
To take that step of faith!

This is my now!
And I am breathing in the moment!
As I look around?
I can't believe the love I see!

My fears behind me!
Gone are the shadows and doubt!
That was then --
This is my now ...

I have a courage?
Like never before!
I've settled for less,
But I'm ready for more.

Ready for more ...

This is my now!
And I am breathing in the moment.
As I look around?
I can't believe the love I see!

My fears behind me!
Gone are the shadows and doubt!
That was then --
This is my now!!! ..."

-- "This Is My Now" by Jordin Sparks.

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Last Week SU: 6-7-0.
Season to Date SU: 81-51-2.

Last Week ATS: 5-8-0.
Season to Date ATS: 64-63-7.

Last Week Upset / Week: disaster.
Season to Date Upset / Week: 2-7-0 SU; 4-4-1 ATS.
This Week Upset / Week: raiders (+10) over "Super" Chargers.

The Non-Chiefs Picks.

* at Steelers (-6 1/2) 34, Panthers 27.
* at Jets (-7) 21, Bills 6.  "ALF Game O' The Week" honors.
* "Shane" Falcons (-6) 34, at Browns 13.
* at Bengals (+5 1/2) 31, Saints 30.
* Redskins (+3) 31, at Bucs 13.
* at Titans (+6 1/2) 17, Patriots 10.
* at Colts (-3) 31, Jaguars 24.
* at Bears 20, Lions (+6 1/2) 14.
* at raiders (+10) 34, "Super" Chargers 24.
* Dolphins (+10) 31, at Packers 21.
* at Rams 34, Seahawks (+9) 27.
* Cowboys (+7 1/2) 24, at Eagles 21 (OT).
* at 49ers (-3 1/2) 31, Giants 3.  "Good Times Game O' The Week" honors.

The "Klassy" Kevin Keitzman Tweet O' The Week.

I'll give the "Konfident" and "Klassy" one a pass this week.  Let's just all hope his pants aren't (allegedly) needing to be pulled up, or he doesn't (allegedly) pass out drunk at a blackjack table at Harrah's via falling out of his high chair onto (allegedly) the casino floor, after KU stuns his Wildcats tomorrow.

The Watching Party Plans.

There are no The Watching Party Plans, as this is a Chiefs game I will be in attendance for.

The Tailgating Plans.

The Bus departs about 6am.  If you feel like braving the cold to help us get tents set up and heaters going, it'd be appreciated.

Also, she's almost done.  The outside is painted; all that is left is to add on the new stencils on each side.  Here's how she looked downtown last Sunday:


(Classing up the joint, I say.  Image credit: me, via my iPhone 8 something.)

My good friends Nicole and Andrew are coming down from Sioux Falls for this one.  I have no idea why.  I'm just glad to see them again before the year is over.  (Bonus appearances rule!  They'll be back for the raiders / New Year's finale.)

I also have a Twitter friend that I regularly converse with coming in (he's a Cardinals fan), and he and his crew will be tailgating with us as well.  Try to be nice to him; he's a pretty cool dude online to me, at least.

The menu Sunday is various chili's and various beers.  I know there's a white chicken chili coming, I know there's a regular chili coming ... and I'm making my version of taco soup.  You're welcome.  Also, I'll be doing jalapeno poppers as well as an appetizer.  (Pause).  What?  (Pause).  You're f*cking right I'm making them to ensure I stand in front of a grill all morning long!  Am I that obvious?

In addition, there will be plenty of libations, plenty of fun, and God willing, possibly the first test of the new stereo system that Jarad installed during his renovation of The Bus.  (Note: we haven't gotten to try it yet, because our new neighbors speaker system is just beyond kick ass, and they play the same sh*t we do, so we're just letting them dominate the noise at this point.)  It worked awesomely commuting to Sprint Centre and McFadden's last Sunday.  I can't wait to try it out on the sacred grass that is the knoll north of the G30 sign.

Oh, and the A-Man and his dad will be (allegedly) making an appearance.  That should be fun.

Hope to see y'all Sunday.

The Flashback.

Flash back to 2002.  To the "32 Defense".

The Chiefs entered Thanksgiving Weekend at 5-6 ... yet very much in control of their own destiny.  Their remaining schedule was vs Cards / vs Rams / at those people / vs "Super" Chargers / at raiders.

The "32 Defense" was christened as such, by (I believe, of all people) "Klassy" Kevin Keitzman, because it ranked 32nd (out of 32) in damned near every major statistical category.  Yards allowed.  Points allowed.  Turnovers forced.  Yeah, the 2002 Chiefs defense was beyond abysmal.

And yet, one person dared to defy common sense, logic, and every sense of reason known to man, by insisting literally all season that "this defense has a shutout in it!  I know it does!"

That person?

"The Voice of Reason".

Go figure -- that Thanksgiving weekend Sunday?

Chiefs 49, "Super" Cardinals 0.

Hey, it was pick that one, or the one from the previous season out in the desert ... best known for learning first hand, that turning on every faucet in the bathroom known to man, plus flushing the toilet periodically, does not drown out the sound of a couple having sex, if they're really, really, really digging each other for about ten to twelve straight minutes.  Or so I've been told.  (Note: I was not the one getting his groove on, in that Super 8 bathroom.  I know -- circle me stupified as well, Bert.  Circle me stupidied, that I was innocent for once.)

Stevo's Drink O' The Week.

So let me set the stage for this one ... and it might make some sense.

Two weeks ago, I was in San Antonio for my cousin's wedding.  It was a great time had by all.  Until we got back to the hotel.

Because I was leaving at 5:30am to make it home for kickoff against those people, for Saturday, my brother and sister-in-law let me sleep in the kids' room on the floor, for a couple hours before I had to get up and going.  So let me say this: getting a 10 year old and two 8 year olds, high on sugar, soda, and excitement, to fall asleep is like asking me to stay sober for a night.  I'll give it a try, but it ain't happening.

I finally gave up about 3:30, and called an Uber to head to the airport for the 5:30 flight home.

Go figure -- nothing is open at San Antonio International at 3:30am.

I also misread (tony dumas voice) the flight plans, as my connection went through Houston instead of Dallas.  Not a big deal; the time was still the same -- 8:37am at KCI.

I land in Houston a little after 6am, and go figure, no much is open.  I manage to get to Terminal B with a few minutes to spare to catch my puddle jumper to get to KCI ... and it's delayed.

Anyways, I finally land at KCI a little before 10am, luck into an Uber literally dropping someone off in front of me as I request one, bribe the dude with a 20 to make it to Arrowhead "as fast as f*cking possible", and he drops me off within sight of Gate 6 a little before 10:30am.

(He earned that $20.)

I wander down to The Bus, am welcomed by all, and handed a beer.  I didn't check what said beer was; it was my first drink of the day on those people day.  It could have been Bud Light for all I cared, and I'd still have chugged it in ten seconds and demanded a rematch with the next bottle.

The beer I was handed?

You guessed it -- Frank Stallone!

No, you guessed it -- Bud Light.

So that's my drink of the week, because after twenty years of protesting to the contrary, I have finally found at least -- at least! -- one EXACT SCENARIO, where I will drink Bud Light, and be happy, if not satisfied, about it.

It's a confluence of travel, I pray never happens again.

"Disreputable Mexican Food Truck" Update.

I was down in Texas two weeks ago.  My adopted home state.  I mean, I literally cried getting off the plane when landing, as this played in my iPhone head, uuh, phones.

(I defy you to not sing along.)

(Because kids singing that song?  Does that to you.)

I lived in Texas for (mike gundy voice) four! years in college.  At least 49.95% of me wishes I still lived there, but whatever.

The first day down there was owned by my brother -- both good, and, uuh, good.  He somehow badgered the rental car agency into giving us a Tahoe over a mini-van * .  His points got me onto the "exclusive" 12th Floor of the Sheraton Gunter Hotel -- where only top rewards folks are supposed to stay.

(To say nothing of the 24 hour food and beverage bar on the 2nd floor.  Yo quiero free booze!  And the breakfast bar was nothing to sneeze at either.)

We went that Thursday night to Dave and Busters at the Riverwalk Mall.  The kids had a blast ... as did the grown-ups picking up the tab.  (Seriously -- $2 Shiner draws?  That's indefensibly cheap!)

On the walk to Dave and Busters, this was the shot from about a block from our hotel, onto the Riverwalk:


(Beyond beautiful and awesome.  Image credit: me, via my iPhone 8 something.)

But it was Friday, that was so cool to me.

Those of you who know me best, know my mom and I were not exactly a functioning relationship for most of my life post high school.

Which is why this is so damned cool to me:


(I love how photographers think putting "PROOF" over the photo actually stops us cheap degenerate folks from stealing their image.  (Image credit: somebody greedier than me, at The Alamo.)

If you had told me six years ago my mom and I would snap a picture of us in front of anything, I think we'd both have laughed.

We're both smiling in the pic above, but not laughing.

It's a smile of love.  Of acceptance, tolerance, of recognizing you don't have to change who you are, to be loved on all sides.

It's an acceptance, of our now.

(Pause).

Boy, we're coming back to that theme, in the ...

The Chiefs (Probably Pointless) Pontification and Prognostication.

(*: I owe her at least four beers at last count, on bets of "what will my brother do" bets.  I'll pay up by Thanksgiving ... maybe.)

When I got off work tonight, I headed to Price Chopper to grab some dinner and a few bottles of something alcoholic in nature, intending to settle in for a typical Friday night the last month at the Casa de Stevo: eat, drink a glass or two, and pop a pill out of that "Sleep" bottle I purchased at a dispensary out in Colorado last month.

(I'm telling you -- a healthy dinner, 2-3 glasses of wine, and a pill laced with 10% weed = at barest minimum, 10 hours uninterrupted sleep.  It's a perfect end to any week.)

I got into the check out line, and I hear "Steve!  How are you!" coming from behind me.

It was a former co-worker of mine at my two previous jobs, Madeline.

For the next five, six minutes, we shot the sh*t, so to speak.  Got caught up on each other's lives, got to laugh over a few shared memories.  It's everything you'd want a random "what are the f*cking odds" encounter in a check-out line at a grocery store to be.

She offered me a lift home (it's currently 20ish and spitting snow here in Waldo); I declined the offer, partly because I live three blocks from the Price Chopper, but also because I wanted to start to brace myself for what Sunday morning is going to feel like.

But there's another reason I declined.

Sometimes?

The past, is the past?

For a reason.

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Sometimes, that reason?  Is that the past just hurts too f*cking much, to deal with.  Believe me, I know.  I'm sure everyone reading this as well, is nodding "f*ck yeah, it hurts".  At least part of the past hurts for everyone in life.

But sometimes, that reason the past hurts?

Is that the future is so damned beautiful, it's so damned amazing, it's so much better than anything in the past, that the past just has to be ignored, forgotten, or (in the best case scenario) knocked into a graveyard of forgotten memories, irregardless of how we feel about that knocking occurring.

And that, at least to me?

Is what this 2018 Chiefs season, is all about ... so far.

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Chiefs fans?  We've endured God knows how many heartbreaks, how many playoff defeats, how many blown playoff berths.  Hell, the only year we've missed the playoffs under "Fat" Andy?

We make them if we had defeated the "Super" Cardinals in the desert, in Week Fourteen 2014.  We didn't; we fell 17-14 in a game best remembered for having two touchdowns called back via penalty.

If you think about the journey to where we are today -- atop the AFC, tied with the Rams for the best record in football -- if you had said six short years ago that all this would happen in the last five years:

* five straight winning seasons
* four playoff berths
* first playoff win in a generation
* two home playoff games
* two divisional round appearances
* two straight division titles for the first time

Would you have taken it, coming off 2-14, Jovan Belcher, "Coach Baffoon", rock bottom season of 2012?

Of COURSE you'd have taken it.

And yet, admit it -- this season feels far, far different than those previous five do, right?

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This is our now, Chiefs fans.

And it's time to embrace the moment.

I picked Jordin Sparks for the theme for three reasons, none of which may make sense to you, but they do to me, so ... in the words of someone from my past I pray I never encounter again, (dusty voice) Deal With It!

Those reasons are ...

1. She's one of my three favorite "American Idol" contestants ever * .
2. She's from Arizona.  And
3. She did the National Anthem at the most painful defeat of the "Fat" Andy Reid era *** .

Sunday?  We undo the shame of (3), at least.

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(*: my top three are Blake Lewis, Jordin Sparks, and (flip a coin) Daughtry or Kelly Clarkson ** .  Crystal Bowersox rounds out my top five.  Also, Jordin's best performance was her most forgotten one: "Woman in Love" by Barbra Streisand.  She was 17 when she did this ... and godd*mned right, she nailed it to (reggie jackson voice) second f*cking base, pitch issues excepted.  Jesus, this song is so good ... and yes, I am straight.)

(**: gun to my head, this is "Idol"'s finest hour.  Jesus, this one gets to me.  It's that, or this.)

(***: if (when?) we host those bastardos again, it'd better be this chica doing The Anthem.)

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I hope to see everyone reading this on Sunday.  You know where I'll be.  And we'll all be there for the same reason.

Because this?

Is our now.

This isn't the best Chiefs team we've ever seen ... but as my dad would note (after 35 years in the trenches at a government job): "it's close enough for government work".

Let's do this.

* at Chiefs (-16 1/2) 56, "Super" Cardinals 13.

Setting up the biggest regular season game the Chiefs have played in twenty five years, in terms of hype.

And go figure -- Steve Young will be a part of it, next week ...

Thursday, November 9, 2017

the week ten picks

Last Week SU: 7-6-0.
Season to Date SU: 82-49-0.

Last Week ATS: 7-6-0.
Season to Date ATS: 75-52-4.

Last Week Upset / Week: whoops.
Season to Date Upset / Week: 4-5 SU; 5-4 ATS.
This Week's Upset / Week: Colts (+10) over Steelers.

The Non-Jets Predictions:

* Byes: Chiefs, raiders, Eagles, Ravens.

* at “Super” Cardinals (+6) 24, Seahawks 20.  This, for all intents and purposes, is your Arizona “Super” Cardinals season.  If they win tonight, they get to 5-4, and this is their closing seven: at Texans / vs Jags / vs Rams / vs Titans / at Redskins / vs Giants / at Seahawks.  They win tonight, this could be your “how the hell did they win ten games and steal the six seed” team in the NFC.

* at Redskins (+1 ½) 41, Vikings 24.  The wrong team is favored.

* Packers (+5 ½) 16, at Bears 10.  Before we all go jumping on the “Brett Hundley F*cking Sucks!” bandwagon, let’s take a step back.  Yes, he’s 0-2.  To the Saints and Lions, two teams that I think will win their divisions when it’s all said and done.  The Bears aren’t the Saints or Lions, and Mitchell Trubisky sure as hell isn’t Drew Brees or Matthew Stafford.  Let’s all calm down before writing the Packers eulogy.  (Note: if you had “Stevo is starting Brett Hundley” as your reason for my defense of him, congratulations, you’re possibly a winner!)  

Also, “ALF Game O’ The Week” honors.

* at Colts (+10) 24, Steelers 21 (OT).  We all know the Steelers are going to sh*t the proverbial bed at some point.  They’re going to lose at least one game down the stretch they have no business losing.  They always do.  My money is on this one … although Green Bay at The Ketchup Bottle in two weeks makes sense too.

* at Jaguars (-3 ½) 31, “Super” Chargers 20.  Speaking of “let’s not get ahead of ourselves”, pick your side to be cautious about in this one.  The Jags five wins are against the Texans, Ravens, Steelers, Bengals, and Colts.  The “Super” Chargers have beaten the raiders, Giants, and those people.  Combined they’ve beaten one .500 or better squad.  The Jags five losses are to the Titans, Jets, and Rams; the “Super” Chargers have lost to those people, the Dolphins, the Chiefs, the Eagles, and the Patriots.  My point being, neither of these squads is worth getting worked up about.  Gun to my head, the Jags are better, and they’re at home.  But I’m not sold on this.

* Bengals (+4 ½) 27, at Titans 17.  Gut feeling.

* at Bills (-3) 34, Saints 14.  Let’s think this through to the end game, because this game has (potentially) schedule altering implications to it.  NBC currently is scheduled to air the Packers at Steelers on Sunday night, November 26th.  While that gives you two popular franchises, it also gives you one (at least on paper) god awful game in prime time.  And we all know how concerned the NFL is about its declining ratings right now.  (And unlike last year, there isn’t an election to blame, or recover from.)

On November 26th, the Bills visit the Chiefs, and the Saints visit the Rams.  Neither Buffalo nor New Orleans has a scheduled appearance on Sunday Night Football.  (For that matter, neither do the Rams, and the Chiefs are done barring being flexed in.)

Does the winner of this game, see their matchup on November 26th moved to prime time?

Something to consider.

(Also, this is one great game on paper.)

* at Lions (-11) 38, Browns 10.  “Webster Game O’ The Week” honors.

* at Rams (-11) 38, Texans 10.  “Designing Women Game O’ The Week” honors.

* at 49ers (+2 ½) 3, Giants 0.  “Good Times Game O’ The Week” honors.  If not the entire year.

* at “Shane” Falcons (-3) 41, Cowboys 34.  For the record, Zeke Elliott’s presence did not defeat the Chiefs last Sunday.  For the record, Zeke Elliott’s absence will defeat the Cowboys this Sunday.

* at those people (+7 ½) 20, Patriots 10.  The “Stevo Rule 34 Game O’ The Week”!  (Which, in case you didn’t know, Stevo Rule 34: if you ever make a decision, and find that everyone’s response to that decision is “you’d have to be mentally retarded or named Stevo to have done that”, just assume you f*cked up.)

There is no sane, rational, reasonable decision for expecting a reeling, humiliated, “we’re starting brock osweiler!” those people squad to win this game.  Absolutely not one.  They’ve lost four straight, each one worse than the previous, culminating with an ass-reaming so violently good that the Eagles literally ran out of fireworks to shoot off after scoring yet another, uuh, score.  I mean, that would be like the late, great Mr. Hugh M. Hefner running out of condoms during a Playboy Mansion party – unthinkable, inconceivable, unbelievable.  That is how horrific those people were last week.

And yet, I’m picking them to win outright – and comfortably – against the defending Super Bowl champions.  (old guy in “grumpier old men” voice) Just goes to show you.

* at Panthers 21, Dolphins (+9) 20.  This line is at least six points too high.  At least.  Also, “Empty Nest Game O’ The Week” honors.

The Jets Best Guess:

If you had the Jets as a .500 team entering their bye – with two weeks to prepare for the stretch run that they are very, very much a mathematical part of (thanks to the fact they’ve beaten both of the current AFC Wild Card holders) – raise your hand.

You will notice mine is not raised.

Look it, I firmly believe the final AFC Wild Card team will be 9-7 at best, and I actually think they’ll be 8-8.  (Gun to my head, your two Wild Card teams will end up being the raiders and Bills, but I’m not sold on Buffalo.)  If the Jets lose this one, .500 is out of the question -- there's still trips to Foxboro and N'Awlins on tap, plus home games with the Chiefs and Panthers after the bye.

For one more week, in the words of Tony Pena: nosotros podemos!

* Jets (-2 1/2) 20, at Bucs 13.

Hopefully coming sometime this weekend, my thoughts on the trip to Dallas for the Chiefs / Cowboys game, plus my Bye Week Chiefs Thoughts.

Saturday, November 8, 2014

week ten: perfect memories ...

"Remember how they 
Tried to hold you down?
So we climbed those towers,
And looked out upon our town?

And everything you hoped would last?
It just always becomes your past.

And it hurts.

And summers when the money was gone?
You would sing,
All your little songs,
That meant everything to me.

And I'll remember you!
And the things that we used to do!
And the things that we used to say!
I'll remember you?  

Always ..."

-- "Perfect Memory" by Remy Zero, which, in the interest of full disclosure, is my ninth favorite song of all time, and yes, I am long overdue for the 2014 Stevo's Favorite Songs post ...

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Last Week ATS: 6-7-0.  In my defense -- I lost two of these because of the half point (Browns won by 6, took them 6 1/2; Bengals won by 10, took them 10 1/2.  Damned Danny Sheridan knowing his sh*t!  Oh, yeah -- Danny Sheridan: Stevo's Site Numero Dos' Official Games Of Chance Oddsmaker Since Freshman Year in High School!!!!!!)
Season To Date ATS: 63-69-2.

Last Week SU: 8-5-0.
Season To Date SU: 77-56-1.

Last Week "Screw You Pete King" Upset / Week: ugh.
Season to Date Upset / Week ATS: 5-6-0.
Season to Date Upset / Week SU: 5-6-0.
This Week "Screw You Pete King" Upset / Week: I only took two underdogs, and one has already won.  Which means this week, I'm wagering on the impossible, the improbable, the "he has officially lost his bleeping mind" game.  raiders (+11) over broncos.

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The Non-Chiefs, Non-Jets Wings and a Prayers:

* Browns (+6 ½) 27, at Bengals 21.  As sent out on Twitter Thursday night.  Which means, for the second time this season, I nailed a Thursday nighter!  Yay me!  (kazoo voice) !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

* Cowboys (-7) 31, Jaguars 13 (in London).  Since nobody asked, and nobody cares, I personally don’t have a problem with the Chiefs giving up a home game next year (the Chiefs will “host” the Lions in London at 8:30am CT on Sunday, November 4th.)  Every team is going to have to do it at some point; just get it out of the way.  What I do have a problem with, is the NFL continuing to charge full regular-season prices for the sh*tfest known as preseason football.

Here’s how horrific preseason football is: I almost never go.  Unless it is a perfect Stevo summer day (100 plus and not a cloud in the sky), or a buddy or two who rarely go are planning to attend, I pretty much refuse to go.  I hate preseason football with a passion.  To have to pay the exact same price to watch a glorified practice for 3 ½ hours, that I pay to watch the Chiefs (hopefully) end satan manning’s career in three weeks, is outrageous.

* at Lions (-2 ½) 31, Dolphins 28.  Ugh.  I don’t want to wager on either squad.  They’re both poorly coached, they’re both horribly overrated, and neither one is making the playoffs come late December.  I guess I’ll take the Lions at home … but I am not sold on this pick at all.

* at Saints 34, 49ers (+5 ½) 31.  The 49ers will throw everything except the kitchen sink into this one.  They’ve still got both Seahawks games, and host the Eagles, Chargers, and Cardinals in December.  This does not look good for them at this point.

* at Ravens (-10) 45, Titans 13.  “Gordon Shumway Game O’ The Week!” honors. 

* Falcons (-2 ½) 3, at Bucs 0.  “Good Times Game O’ The Week!” honors.

* at Cardinals 34, Rams (+6) 31.  Smells like an overtime game, where the Rams race to a quick lead, the Cards rally to tie it late, then survive in overtime.  Every contender has at least one of these a year – when a crappy team comes into their stadium and puts the fear of God in them.  (For the Chiefs playoff teams the last fifteen some odd years, those games would be Buffalo (1997, goalline stand as time expired to win), oakland (2003, Morton Anderson FG as time expired), oakland again (2006, aaron brooks picked off in end zone with 0:08 to play), Buffalo again (2010, Ryan Succup field goal as time expired in overtime), and Houston (2013, Case Keenum sacked and stripped with 1:20 to play).

* at Seahawks (-8) 38, Giants 10.  This Tom Coughlin era is ending almost exactly as the Jacksonville Tom Coughlin era did.  And that is not a good thing, if you’re a Giants fan.

* at raiders (+11) 27, broncos 20.  It is time once again, for Stevo’s Site Numero Dos’ Official Public Service Announcement.  It only gets said once a year, but it rings truer and truer, every year that passes.

“Peoples and peepettes, if the terrorists strike whatever the hell the coliseum is now known as while the raiders and broncos are playing, it is NOT a national tragedy.  It is cause for a national celebration!”

And given last week?  If the destruction wants to spread across the Bay this year, and take out those mean evil people from San Francisco and their baseball club, again, see the PSA above.

* at Packers (-7) 34, Bears 24.  I think this’ll be closer than most people think.

* at Eagles (-6 ½) 27, Panthers 17.  I’m in the minority, but I think Mark Sanchez will be just fine over the next month.  Is he a great quarterback?  No.  Did he lead the Jets to four playoff wins (all on the road) and two AFC Championship games in his rookie and second seasons?  Yes. 

The “Klassy” Kevin Keitzman Tweet O’ The Week:

Giving the Klassy One a pass this week.  Simply because there's nothing worth noting on his Twitter feed.  

The Poem:

There is no The Poem due to this being a Chiefs home game.

The Tailgating Plans:

There is no The Tailgating Plans due to this being a Chiefs home game.

The Watching Party Plans:

Same bat spot, same bat time, same bat channel.  (AKA “The Second Parents” house, arrive anytime after 11, and if you’re rooting for Buffalo, you’re banished to the basement.)

The Jets “Please Put Us Out Of Our Misery” Pick:

Do you realize the Jets are 4-21 all time against the Steelers?  Four.  And.  Twenty.  One.  And that record includes two brutally tough to swallow playoff defeats – in overtime in the 2004 Divisional Round (when Doug Brien couldn’t hit from 29 yards out), and in regulation in the 2010 AFC Championship Game.  (Which stung even worse when you remember one of the four wins, came five weeks earlier in a 22-17 victory that got the Jets into the playoffs.  The AFC Title Game margin of defeat?  Five points, 24-19.  The lesson?  God hates the Jets.)

I actually wore the Jets hoodie into work on Tuesday.  My co-worker Jarow (who openly mocks my support for the Jets … and in his defense, I can’t offer a, uuh, defense for my, uuh, defense, of the Jets), noted “wow.  You’ve got a bigger pair than me (for wearing said hoodie).

(Jarow is the guy who got stuck in Indy for four days, after the playoff loss last year, thanks to the thirty inches of snow that fell.)

I guess my way of saying this: I cannot even begin to defend, reason, or explain why I am making the pick I am … other than a course correction is due.

The Jets aren’t this bad.  The Steelers aren’t this good.

And this line is so freaking insane, I have to think Vegas knows something, we all don’t.

Because it’s at least ten points too low, based on who these teams are.

* at Jets (+4) 26, Steelers 23.

The Chiefs Prognostication (and Pointless Commentary About Whatever I Feel Like Pointlessly Commenting About):

The Chiefs do one thing quite well: they tend to rally from 0-2, 0-3 starts, to at least make things interesting by the midpoint.

Over the last fifteen years, we’ve seen this six times now:

* 2000: Chiefs open 0-2, losing to satan and his Colts in the opener, before losing in overtime to Tennessee.  The Chiefs win five of six (including an epic Monday Nighter over the Seahawks) to get to 5-3 at the midpoint.

* 2004: Chiefs open 0-3, getting drilled in denver, drilled by Carolina, and losing on a last second field goal to Houston.  They then win 3 of 4 (including an epic Monday Nighter at Baltimore, as well as a woodshed beating of satan manning and his Colts), to get to 3-4 at the midpoint.

* 2006: Chiefs open 0-2, seeing Trent Green nearly die in the opener against Cincinnati, and losing in overtime at denver.  They then win 5 of 6 (capped by Lawrence Tynes’ 53 yard field goal to beat San Diego at the gun), to get to 5-3 at the midpoint.

* 2007: Chiefs open 0-2, getting drilled in Houston and Chicago.  They then win 4 of 5 (including winning at San Diego as 14 ½ point underdogs), to get to 4-3 at the midpoint.

* 2011: Chiefs open 0-3, getting blown out by Buffalo and Detroit, losing Eric Berry and Jamaal Charles, and losing on a Cassel late INT at San Diego.  They then win 4 straight (including an epic Monday Nighter over the Chargers simply known as “The Phumble”), to get to 4-3 at the midpoint.

* 2014: Chiefs open 0-2, getting boatraced by Tennessee before losing to denver.  They then win 5 of 6 (including an epic Monday Night woodshed beating over New England by 30 points), to get to 5-3 at the midpoint.

Yes, I am aware there were other atrocious starts in there, that the Chiefs didn’t rally from.  They opened 0-2 in 2001, and finished 6-10 (although they did win 4 of 5 to end the season).  They opened 0-3 in 2008, and finished 2-14.  They opened 0-2 in 2012, and not only finished 2-14, they didn’t hold the lead in a game for a second of time, until Week 11 at Pittsburgh (another epic Monday Nighter … although not epic in a good way).

But five times before, we’ve seen the script play out like it has so far, in 2014.  Sucky start, rock solid rally … and then what?

--------------------

Only one of those previous five Chiefs teams, paid off for their midseason rally.

The 2000 team got to 5-3, then lost five straight.

The 2004 team got to 3-4, then lost five straight.

The 2007 team got to 4-3, then lost twelve straight across two seasons.

The 2011 team got to 4-3, then lost four straight ... then split a pair of road games, fired their head coach, upset the defending champion Packers, to control their own destiny at 6-8 ... and lost in overtime to oakland, before beating timothy r. tebow in his final regular season start, as a NFL quarterback.

The only team that made the rally worth it?  2006.  And even that took The Immaculate Fourfecta to earn a playoff berth, as that team would get to 7-4 after blowing the donkeys out of Arrowhead on Thanksgiving night ... before losing three straight, and needing some dude named Alex Smith to rally from down 0-13 at denver at halftime, to sneak into the playoffs.  (Where, go figure, we lost to the Colts.  Stunning -- Chiefs losing to Indy in the playoffs.  I know, I know -- that never happens!)

Circle me stupid ... but I think this season, will parallel 2006.  And not wind up like 2000, 2004, 2007, or 2011.

--------------------

I had an entirely different direction I was going to go, for the Chiefs rambling and/or pointless commentary.  And maybe I'll revisit what I was going to say, at some point in the near future.

But not today.

The pick?

This is the seventh straight year the Bills and Chiefs have faced off.  Buffalo is 4-2 to this point, owning Demolition Derby-style victories in 2008, 2009, 2011, and 2012, and the Chiefs having close wins in 2010 and last year.  If the standings of today hold, we'll meet those people again for an eighth straight year, next season.

It's the matchup this year, that is the biggest one to date, out of the seven.

Because the odds are really in the winner's favor, in terms of reaching the playoffs.

When in doubt ... take the team with the better coach, the better quarterback, and the better resume.

And for once?  All three of those things, are on the Chiefs sideline.

* Chiefs (-2) 28, at Bills 17.

Sunday, November 10, 2013

week ten: the calm before the storm

"Aah!  You should hurry –
You should let her know how you feel.
Aah!  Now don’t you worry –
If you’re scared this love is for real?

You should hear how she talks about you –
You should hear what she said!
She said she would be lost without you –
She’s half out of her head!

(Out of her head!)

You should hear how she talks about you –
She just can’t get enough!
She said she would be lost without you –
She is really in love!

(She is really in love!)”

-- "You Should Hear How She Talks About You" by Melissa Manchester.  Yes, she played Blossom's mother on that craptacular sitcom.  Yes, she originally performed the song that Diana DeGarmo nailed to (reggie jackson voice) "second (bleeping) base", in season three of "American Idol".  Having said that ... 

--------------------

Happy Picks Posting Day, peoples and peepettes!  This is always my least favorite Sunday of the season, the week the Red and Gold face an opponent only “Sur” William Callahan – and possibly Mike Tice – could lose to, those grizzled ol’ veterans named “Bye”.  

And this year?  My other team also faces that same mean, cruel opponent this week. 

(Pause).  What?  (Pause).  Yeah, I was thinking Sunday sounds like laundry day too, actually.

Let’s do this!

Last Week ATS: 4-9-0.
Season to Date ATS: 61-70-2.

Last Week SU: 7-6-0.
Season to Date SU: 78-55-0.

“The Voice of Reason” Last Week: 5-8-0.
“The Voice of Reason” Season to Date: 57-73-3.

(Note: Mr. Reason does not pick straight up winners.)

“Screw You Pete King” Upset O’ The Week Last Week: only I could pick two prime-time dogs, and have one of them blow a 24-6 third quarter lead after their head coach collapses with a stroke.  But hey, the Bears won outright! 
“Screw You Pete King” Upset O’ The Week Season to Date: 4-8.
This Week’s “Screw You Pete King” Upset O’ The Week: (stevo sighing).  Do I haul it out this week, or next week?  Those five magical words, when I truly buy all-in to a team’s season?  Do I haul it out this week, or next week?  (Pause).  What?  (Pause).  Well fine!  What do you think, Ms. Non-Existent Stevo’s Site Numero Dos’ Editor Dudette?  Press my luck, or pass?  (Pause).  (stevo sighing.)  My thoughts too.  Send those spins to the second place contestant, Peter!  Let them press their luck!  Panthers (+6) to shock the 49ers.

The Non-Jets, Non-Chiefs, Fidelity Ad Guy Memorial “Why Not” Uneducated Guesses:

(Note: as always, all lines are pulled from Danny Sheridan via USA Today.  Danny Sheridan: Stevo’s Site Numero Dos’ Official Wagering Authority!)

* Redskins (-1) 26, at Vikings 14. The Redskins – who opened 1-4, could be one back at this time next week, kids.  As could the Giants, who opened 0-6.  And the Eagles could be all alone in first place.  The NFC East!  This year’s Bill Murray in “Tootsie” Memorial “That Is One Nutty Hospital!” Division!!!

* at Titans (-12) 31, Jaguars 13.  Speaking of nutty, how big of a cluster(muck) are we going to get for the six seed in the AFC?  I mean, four seeds are already wrapped up – the AFC West winner is probably going to have home field advantage, the other will be the first wildcard.  The Colts and Pats are locked into 2/3 in some order.  The Bengals can all but wrap up the AFC Norris if they win Sunday. 

But for the six seed?  You’ve got the Jets at 5-4, the Titans, Chargers, and Dolphins at 4-4, the raiders (cake schedule remaining) at 3-5, and the Bills (ditto) at 3-6.  I know I am giddy with glee at figuring out a six way tie at 8-8 come December 29th!

* at Packers (-1) 24, Eagles 21.  I’m not sold on it though.  Speaking of things I’m not sold on, this one has been bugging me all week.

Flash back to week twelve, 1996.  This (at the time) hot as holy hell nineteen year old college sophomore spent his Monday night inside Texas Stadium, watching the Cowboys and Packers wage one of their classic battles from the mid-1990s. 

This was a Cowboys team that was your defending Super Bowl champion, but had opened 1-3, was down 10-0 at the Vet on a Monday night in week five, and was starting Deion Sanders and Herschel Walker at wide receiver due to Kevin Williams’ injury and Michael Irvin’s five game suspension for doing blow with some “self employed models” at the Doubletree off Airport Freeway and Estes.  It was the last heroic gasp of the last dynasty the league will likely ever see, and it wasn’t going all that well.  Good times!

And this was a Packers team that had lost to Dallas in the NFC Title game the year before, and would go on to reach the next two Super Bowls, winning the first, then tragically letting that classless jackass patrick j. bowlen shout his repulsive “This One’s for john!!!” exclamation that to this day, makes me hurl.

The Cowboys did not score a touchdown that night … but then again, neither did the Packers.  The ‘Boys led 18-6, and had the ball with less than a minute to go, in field goal range. 

Up to this moment, the most field goals made in a game was six.  Trotting out Chris Boniol for a gimme seventh would be classless, tasteless, and disgraceful.  It would be running up the score on a hated rival.

Did Cowboys head coach Barry Switzer send Ol’ Chris out there for that attempt?  OF COURSE HE DID!  And the kick was good, and to this day, Chris Boniol holds the record for most field goals made in a game (although Rob Bironas would tie him, in a game at Reliant in (I believe) 2011).

My point is this: Eagles quarterback Nick Foles threw for seven touchdowns last week in the black hole.  He had nearly an entire quarter to do what no NFL quarterback has ever done before: throw an eighth in a game.  And Eagles coach Chip Kelly chose to not go for it.

Circle me furious, Bert, at Mr. Kelly’s display of class, decorum, and decency.  We need more Barry Switzer’s on the NFL sideline, that is for damned sure.  Because you know Ol’ Bar wouldn’t have just let Mr. Foles throw numero ocho, he’d have tried an onside kick to give him a chance, at numero nueve.

* at Steelers 27, Bills (+3) 26.  Feels like a field goal game.  And most definitely is your Gordon Shumway Game O’ The Week!!!

* at Giants 28, raiders (+7 ½) 21.  Thanks for the half point, Danny!  The Giants are going to be interesting to watch coming down the stretch.  If they get this one, to get back to 3-6, this is what they have left: a roadie to Chicago next week (winnable), and their last six include two with the ‘Skins, hosting the Cowboys and Packers, visiting the Fake Vet, and they open December at Carolina.  I can see 8-8 out of that, if they win Sunday.  And 8-8 is winning the NFC East.

No NFL team has ever started worse than 0-4, and made the playoffs.  And only one team has started 0-4 and made it, your 1992 San Diego “Super” Chargers.  Can the G-Men do it?  Can they go from 0-6 to hosting the 49ers on Wildcard Saturday night?  And if they do … uum … is there anyone who’s NOT going to wager on the Giants to win that game?  (For the record, I’d take the Giants, and definitely Dallas, at home against the 49ers to open the postseason.  Redskins, maybe.  Eagles, no way.)

* at Colts (-9 ½) 41, Rams 20.  How in God’s name is this line not in the double digits?  Is there any person who follows this sport, who envisions the Rams in a one score game on Sunday entering the fourth quarter?  This one has boatrace beatdown written all over it.

* Seahawks (-5) 34, at Falcons 13.  To think that ten months ago, this was one of the most epic divisional round games the NFL has ever staged.  But don’t worry, Falcons fans – Tony Gonzalez won’t whine, moan, and petulantly b*tch his way through the reason of the season.  He’d never do that, right Chiefs fans?  He’d never open the postgame presser after the Chiefs win their first game in 345 days by b*tching that he needed one more reception to set some stupid ass record nobody will remember five minutes from now, right?  Oh, he did do that?  My bad.

Circle me as someone thankful we didn’t give up a draft pick for that whiny malcontent, Bert.

* at Ravens (+1) 24, Bengals 20.  I can’t put it any simpler than this, folks.  I never bet against a proven, veteran team, playing at home, with its season on the line.

But as with everything in life, all good things eventually end.  And in the NFL, when a power, successful team’s run ends?  It usually ends in dramatic, “holy sh*t!  Unbelievable!” style.  Some examples:

* 1990s Cowboys.  Another Monday nighter I was at, week fourteen 1997.  Carolina at Dallas.  Dallas was 5-6, Carolina 6-5, both fighting for the final wild card slot (that Detroit got at 9-7).

I will never forget this play as long as I live.  4th and 2 at exactly midfield, 2:32 to play.  Carolina leads 27-23.  Barry Switzer opts to go for it (the right call, by the way).  Offensive coordinator Ernie Zampeze sends in the play: a play action rollout designed to give Troy Aikman a running option if the receiver is bottled up.

Recognize a problem in that play, folks?  “Receiver”.  Zampeze sent exactly ONE receiver beyond the line of scrimmage – tight end Eric Bjornsen. 

The Cowboys line collapsed, since Dom Capers sent the house, with Dallas in a tight formation.  Aikman was nearly decapitated after a loss of 30 on the play, and that was it for the Dallas dynasty.

* 1990s Chiefs.  November 16, 1998.  The Monday Night Meltdown.  donkeys quarterback bubby brister, rolling on a bootleg right, runs it in untouched from forty yards out, to start the scoring.  This disgusts me.  Let’s move on.

* 1990s Bills.  This one is a coin flip.  You can argue (and I would) that it died when Jacksonville running back Natrone “Refried” Means pounded it in late in the fourth quarter, to stun the Bills 27-20 in the wildcard round in 1996.  But the Bills were still formidable, winning eleven games in 1998 and 1999, which means you can argue that “The Music City Miracle” is when their run truly died.  (They haven’t been back to the postseason since that play.)

* 1990s Packers.  This one had to sting, to lose on the final play of what I would argue is the greatest NFL game ever played.  Packers at 49ers, Wildcard Sunday, January 3, 1999. 

Steve Mariucci calls it “Three Jet All Go”, and is possibly still levitated two feet off the ground.  Steve Young to this day can’t stop saying “he was open!  He was open!” in utter disbelief.  Terrell Owens is still crying.  Pat Summerall, if he was still with us – you want to know how amazing of a play this was?

Pat Summerall was EXCITED!  Seriously, give the FOX call embedded below a listen.  Summerall is elated.  John Madden is literally speechless, he’s just spouting off sounds of ecstasy:


But Joe Starkey put it best, in his call below.  “Owens!  Owens!  He caught it!  He caught it!”



Of course, you could argue the 1990s 49ers dynasty ended on that play as well – less than four games later, Garrison Hearst’s career was cut short, Steve Young’s was concussed to a close, and Terrell Owens was insinuating that Jeff Garcia was gay (not that there’s anything wrong with that). 

But man.  Anytime someone asks me why I irrationally love the NFL (and this applies to the NBA, especially), all I have to do is pull a play like this.  Greatness on display.

If the Ravens amazing twelve, thirteen year run is about to end on Sunday (two Lombardi’s, four AFC Title Games, four division titles, ten playoff appearances, and fifteen playoff wins since the conclusion of the 1999 season)?

It’s going to end epically, if tradition holds serve.

Something like this, if you will ...

* at Bears (pick) 24, Lions 21.  The winner of this game is in great shape, to win the NFC Norris.  If Detroit wins, they’ll be sitting at 6-3, owning a sweep of the Bears, with Green Bay coming to town (likely without Aaron Rodgers) on Thanksgiving.  If the Bears win, they’ll be 6-3, earn a split with the Lions, and can sweep the Packers by beating them at Soldier Field to end the regular season.

Here’s to hoping FOX 4 broadcasts this game, to the Kansas City media market, come high noon on Sunday.

* Panthers (+6) 31, at 49ers 28.  I like Cam Newton.  A lot.  The Panthers game here last year was the one I anticipated the most before the season that didn’t involve the denver broncos, although by the time December 2nd rolled around, Chiefs fans were so sufficiently sick of the events of the previous day, to say nothing of the season to that point, that it had no chance to live up to the hopes I had for it.

But here’s Cam’s problem.  He hasn’t won a big-time pressure game in the NFL yet, and he’s in year three as a starter.  Hell, he couldn’t even beat a Chiefs team here last year dealing with unspeakable tragedy the night before a game of no importance or consequence to them.  (Or so they – and we – all thought.  We were very, very wrong, entering that game, in thinking it was a wasted exercise.  Very, very wrong.)

For starters, Mr. Newton has beaten exactly one – one! – team on the road, that sported a winning record at kickoff.  That was in his rookie season, 2011, at the Houston Texans.  That was also the game Matt Schaub separated his shoulder, and was lost for the season for your AFC South champions.

In fact, here’s every road win Mr. Newton has posted, in his career so far:

2011: week twelve, at Colts.  The Colts were 0-10 entering play.
2011: week thirteen, at Bucs.  The Bucs were 4-7 entering play.
2011: week fifteen at Texans.  The Texans were 10-3 entering play.
2012: week nine at Redskins.  The ‘Skins were 3-5 entering play.
2012: week twelve at Eagles.  The Eagles were 3-7 entering play.
2012: week fifteen at Chargers.  The “Super” Chargers were 5-8 entering play.
2012: week seventeen at Saints.  The Saints were 7-8 entering play.
2013: week six at Vikings.  The Purple People Eaters were 1-3 entering play.
2013: week eight at Bucs.  The Bucs were 0-7 entering play.

And that’s it.  The only road game Cam Newton has won against a winning team, required a Pro Bowl quarterback to separate his shoulder, to facilitate a victory.

Mr. Newton has three cracks at beating a winning team on the road still potentially ahead on the schedule: week twelve at Miami (who is 4-4 right now), week fourteen at N’Awlins (who is 6-2 right now), and this week at the 49ers (who are 6-2 entering this game).

This … is a gut-check game for the Panthers, and especially their quarterback.  This is the first time he’s started a game on the road in the second half of the season, where the Panthers were in the chase for a playoff berth (and a division title; they’re only one behind the Saints, and haven’t faced them yet).

I say he breaks through on Sunday.

I’m even willing to wager on it.

* Texans (+2 ½) 34, at Cardinals 20.  I still don’t think the Texans are dead.  2-6 is ugly, but scroll back up to the comments in the Titans pick.  Texans win this one, they’re two back of the six seed, and have the raiders and Jaguars coming to Reliant the next two Sundays, before the Pats roll into town to open December.  They win this one, I can see them at 6-6 entering the stretch run, which granted is brutally tough – at Jaguars (ok, not brutally tough), at Colts, vs broncos, at Titans.

My point being, I can absolutely see Case Keenum and the 8-7 Texans, visiting Jake Locker and the 9-6 Titans, with the AFC six seed (and a damned good chance at victory at New England or your AFC Norris champ) on the line.

I also want to say, a heartfelt “get well soon”, to Texans coach Gary Kubiak.  I haven’t thought much of his coaching acumen in the past, and quite frankly, I despise him for his connection to Satan’s Squad for most of his playing career.  But the last six quarters of football that man coached – four at Arrowhead, two against the Colts – were quite possibly the most brilliant six quarters of football, I’ve ever had the pleasure to watch.  If the week seven game had been at Reliant, the Chiefs would have lost by thirty.  And the Colts were down by nearly thirty entering the half on Sunday night.

I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: I love watching greatness on display.  It’s why I shell out $199 for the NBA League Pass every season – because there’s always gonna be that one random “holy sh*t dude, put the Bucks game on!” moment, when BJ is dropping 55 on the Nuggets Warriors.  Or the night Brandon Roy showed the world how amazing a talent he was, and what an incredible blow his knee giving out him became.  Gary Kubiak outcoached two of the best coaches in the League the last two weeks.  He flat out embarrassed "Fat" Andy Reid and Chuck "Strong" Pagano.  Here’s to hoping he returns to the sidelines -- as soon as it’s medically safe, for him to do so.

* We’re coming back to the Chargers / donkeys game, in a little while.  This one, is too damned important – for not just both teams involved, but for the Red and Gold as well – to group in with the uninteresting / unimportant throw-away matchups in this section of the prepared remarks.

* Cowboys (+6 ½) 34, at Saints 28.  At some point, Jason Garrett is going to wake up, realize his defense couldn’t stop a quadrapalegic from running for 130 on 15 carries, and throwing for 440 on 16 of 17 accuracy, and reach the Richard A. Vermeil Memorial “I’m Too Old To Wait” moment, where he realizes his offense, has to win the game single-handedly.

I think he reached that moment, late in Sunday’s victory over Minnesota.

I expect the Cowboys to come out firing Sunday night.  You’ve seen the gameplan they’re going to use – they did it damned near perfectly against denver in week five***.  I think they will do it perfectly, Sunday night, in front of the nation.

(***: that game literally, and I am not joking, that game literally was so gripping, compelling, and amazingly great, that every freaking person in the ICU waiting area at Shawnee Mission Medical Center that afternoon / early evening, eventually stopped going in to check on their loved on in a bad way, to simply watch the game unfold.  Even my mom stopped going to check on dad’s latest update.  And my mom is NOT a big football fan.  Basketball, she’ll watch all day long.  We’re already so geeked for KU / Duke this week**, that we cannot wait for Tuesday to get here.  But football?  Not her glass of brandy, so to speak.  Yet even she couldn’t turn away, from how epic that game was.)

(**: the answer to the elephant in the room is not only “hell no” … if anything, “diplomatic relations” have never been worse.)

* Dolphins (+1) 45, at Bucs 0.  ESPN should sue the NFL schedule makers, for this.  Seriously, was there ANY person with a mental IQ above room temperature in Nome, Alaska right now, who thought Dolphins at Bucs in WEEK TEN would have ANY sort of consequence for the postseason picture?  My God, this is pathetic.  It’s also your Good Times Game O’ The Week!!!

The “Klassy” Kevin Keitzman Tweet O’ The Week:

This week isn’t focusing on Ol’ Kev’s Twitter account.  It’s instead focused on Monday’s epic opening monologue, that Greg Hall so deliciously lays out, albeit in a way I’m not going to.

It is a very, very, very rare moment on this site, where I agree with "K"KK on anything.  Hell, I didn’t even support the event that put him on the map, the walkout against the Yankees in 1999, because I didn’t think it would do an ounce of good.

But man, Mr. Keitzman has rarely, if ever, been as dead on accurate, as he was in responding and reacting to the Dolphins’ situation with Jonathan Martin, Richie Incognito, and bullying.

As usual, I am a rarity in life.  I was in the one to two percent of kids growing up – and really, this is still true for me, if I’m being honest – who was never in the upper class “cool kids” crowd … and was never in the group that gets bullied, that gets picked on, that gets taunted and disrespected, and treated with outright hatred, bigotry, and discrimination, just because.

I was in that “middle class”, where the “cool folks” respected me enough to tolerate me, and the “uncool folks” knew I’d never do to them, what some people would.

In case you doubt me, look at who (until recent developments have sadly and regrettably changed this) were my two best friends in life, of a non-female variety.

“The Voice of Reason”, and “The Champ”.

If you’re reading this and know the three of us?  You’d agree.  There could not be more polar opposites, in damned near every way, than Gregg and Dusty.  And neither was anywhere close, to me in the center of the spectrum, so to speak.

Most people who know me and Mr. Reason quite well, are quite stunned we’ve been as great of friends as we have been, for the last few decades.  They look at the contradictions, and in the words of Brian Griffin, think “what the hell”?

I’m a Clinton Democrat; Gregg is as die-hard a conservative Republican as you’ll ever meet.  I love the NBA; he prefers the collegiate game.  I think having two teams you love and support in the same league is perfectly acceptable; he thinks it’s blasphemy.  He’s financially successful; I’m not.  He can control his ugly addictions in life; I can’t.  He's happily married with two kids; I have no desire for either.

And yet, it works.

The same with Mr. Champ.  I think morality and ethics determine absolute right and wrong; he thinks feelings and emotions do.  I think you have to own your failure(s) and accept the consequences of said failure(s); he thinks the past doesn’t matter, because since you can’t change it, why deal with it.  I can’t control my ugly addictions in life; he has in spectacular fashion.  I’m a Clinton Democrat that despises how far left Mr. Obama has taken the party; Dusty thinks Mr. Obama is the greatest thing to ever happen to this country.

And yet, current issue(s) notwithstanding, it works.  

Mr. Reason would never be confused with the “cool kids” growing up.  Mr. Champ would never be confused with the “outcasts” growing up. 

And yet, it works.

Because Mr. Reason, Mr. Champ, and myself, all share one common theme, one common belief, one unifying feature.

Which is why we work.  (Pause).  Wait, let me rephrase that – we work, because we need money to survive from day to day.  What I mean to say was, we share one common theme, one common belief, one unifying feature, that explains why our relationships with each other, work.  Yeah, that’s better.  And that undeniable fact, is this:

We will not tolerate true hateful, hurtful, disgusting and indefensible discrimination, bigotry, and bias, against anyone, for any reason.

And all three of us will call you on it, if you dare cross that line, between “playful teasing”, and “outright hatred”.

I don’t give a damn if Richie Incognito was asked by the Dolphins GM to taunt Mr. Martin into “toughening up”.  I quite frankly don’t give a damn if Mr. Martin needed to be “toughened up”.

I DO give a damn, over the fact that someone was picked on, was demeaned, disgraced, defamed, and intentionally hurt, because some jackwagon thought, it was the right thing to do.

It’s why I not just loved Mr. Keitzman expressing his disgust at being taunted, bullied, and humiliated by people throughout his career … and not only loved the fact he exposed the pathetic pieces of sh*t for who they are, for doing it to him …

… I loved that he’s p*ssed about it.

Greg Hall doesn’t get it.  He should, God love him.  But he doesn’t.

Mr. Hall is right, in that we will never live in Utopia.  We will never live in a society that Dr. King dreamed of, in which who you are as a person, determines your value and worth in life.  That’s impossible to ever attain, especially in this age where every little thing you do, can pop up on Facebook, Instagram, Reddit, Twitter, or (insert social media site here).

But Mr. Keitzman is right, to fight for that Utopia.  To stand against people who make even the hopes of that Utopia, possible.

And Mr. Reason and Mr. Champ, as well as myself, are beyond right, to demand that Utopia, be shown to us, and the people we care about, at all times.

Respect shouldn’t have to be earned.

To quote my high school geometry (then algebra) teacher, the lovely Ms. (not Brett) Summers – respect, and equality for all?

Should be “a given”.

How sad, pathetic, and damning of us as a society, that it isn’t.

(Thus ends the social commentary for this post.)

“The Voice of Reason”’s Reason:

To be posted when received.  For the record, he took the Vikings +1 yesterday, via text message, an hour before kickoff.

“The Poem”:

No poem this week due to no Chiefs home game.

“The Tailgating Plans”:

No tailgating plans this week, due to no Chiefs home game … although my second parents are headed up to South Dakota, to spend the weekend with our raider loving friends from Sioux Falls.

I wish them a happy trip up, and a safe trip home.

You can never be too cautious, when it comes to the raiders being involved, in a situation.

“The Flashback”:

No flashback this week due to the bye week. 

The Jets Prediction:

No prediction this week due to the bye week.  Having said that, here’s my second half prediction, game by game, for Gang Green:

* Week Eleven: at Bills 34, Jets 31 (OT).  Jets record: 5-5.
* Week Twelve: at Ravens 31, Jets 21.  Jets record: 5-6.
* Week Thirteen: at Jets 20, Dolphins 6.  Jets record: 6-6.
* Week Fourteen: at Jets 42, raiders 13.  Jets record: 7-6.
* Week Fifteen: at Panthers 24, Jets 22.  Jets record: 7-7.
* Week Sixteen: at Jets 23, Browns 13.  Jets record: 8-7.
* Week Seventeen: Jets 28, at Dolphins 17.  Jets record: 9-7.

Season finish: 9-7, 2nd (AFC East), in the cluster(buck) to earn an “uno mas!” third battle, against the Patriots this season.

If the (fireman ed voice) J!  E!  T!  S!  Jets Jets Jets! miss the playoffs?

“The Ralph” will be the reason why.

The Single Biggest Non-Jets, Non-Chiefs Game, That Potentially Affects BOTH Teams Postseason Fate, To Be Played In This Two Thousand Thirteen Season So Far:

donkeys at Chargers.

This was the game last year, that launched the “my little ponies” season.  The huge second half comeback in week six, that thirteen weeks later, finally saw another L hit the proverbial debit side, of the accounting ledger. 

This is also the game last year, that finally was the beginning of the end, of the Norval Eugene Turner error, in San Diego, and led to a house-cleaning long overdue for the “Super” Chargers.

You can make a serious, credible, completely believable argument, that AJ Smith is THE unluckiest GM, in NFL history.  The late, great, “it’s criminate / grouse / Zues in nature!” that he’s not in the Hall of Fame, the late, great John Butler (who built the Buffalo teams of the 1990s), left AJ with a stacked cupboard, so to speak … but here’s what happened under his watch:

* 2004: forced to trade Eli Manning to the Giants, for Philip Rivers.  And not just for Mr. Rivers – he acquires Nate Kaeding, and Shawne Merriman, as well.  If you have to start your career being held hostage by (arguably) the most arrogant, selfish, pathetic family in America (which the manning’s are)?  You can do worse than that.

The Chargers won the AFC West at 12-4 that season.  They lost in the playoffs in the Wildcard Round, to Mr. Chadwick Pennington and the Jets, 23-20, in overtime.

* 2005: the Chargers enter the finale, hosting denver, at 9-6, still alive for a playoff berth.  By the time the game has reached halftime, denver has clinched the AFC West, Drew Brees has taken his last snap as a Charger (he left hurt), and the Philip Rivers era has begun, as Mr. Smith opts to let Mr. Brees leave in free agency.  Chargers finish 9-7, miss the postseason.

* 2006: the Chargers go 14-2, post the League’s best record, win the AFC West by five games … and lose 17-14 to the Patriots, in the divisional round.  It is arguably head coach Marty Schottenheimer’s toughest defeat ever.  It is undeniably his final one, as a NFL head coach.  AJ Smith fires Marty, after the defeat, to be replaced …

… by Norval Eugene Turner.

* 2007: the Chargers go 11-5, win the AFC West, and reach the AFC Championship Game, beating the Titans, and the Colts, to get there, before the 17-0 Patriots beat them in Foxboro … in a game where LaDainian Tomlinson**, barely plays.

(**: Mr. Tomlinson’s freshman season at TCU, was my senior year there.  You would have had to lived Horned Frog Football, as “Tony Gonzalez”, “Cocoa The Monkey”, and myself did, in 1997, to understand how utterly out of nowhere, the “holy f*cking sh*t!” season that was 1998, was.)

* 2008: the Chargers reach rock bottom at 4-8 after losing three straight games by single digit margins – a “what the (buck)?” 11-10 loss at Pittsburgh, a “how did this happen – we had SIX INTERCEPTIONS!” defeat in overtime to the Colts at The Q, and a pathetic surrender to the Falcons 22-16 at The Q.

They head to KC at 5-8 after beating the raiders. 

They trail 21-15, with barely a minute to play.

Onside kick.  Victory.

They win out, take the AFC West title by pole-axing denver in the finale (Shanarat’s final game as the donkeys head coach).  They upset the Colts on my (gulp) 32nd birthday, before losing to the eventual champion Steelers in the Divisional Round.

* 2009: possibly THE biggest heartbreak.  I know, I know, Chiefs fans – we are all STUNNED, that a 13-3 team with home field advantage, craps out to a 9-7 also ran just (dan dierdorf voice) happy to be here.  We have NEVER seen that happen, right?

The Chargers actually stood at 2-3, after Ed Hochuli’s botched fumble call at denver in week six. 

They didn’t lose another regular season game, after that tough defeat, to denver.

(Bear with me folks – I’m going somewhere with this, I swear!)

They won eleven straight to end the season … then crapped out in the Divisional Round, at home, to a far inferior opponent, that won on absolutely bullsh*t and pure luck, out of the quarterback.  (In this case, that would be Mr. Sanchez, the Jets QB, and Shonn Greene, the Jets RB, who took the handoff to the house, to seal a 17-14 stunner.)

THAT?  The 4th and 1 that Shonn Greene converted with less than two to play?

Killed the Chargers.

They haven’t made the playoffs since, finally culminating with Norval Eugene and AJ Smith’s terminations, this past offseason.

Now?  On Sunday?  They face a team that won eleven straight because of a victory last year, that the denver broncos were the other party to, that directly caused the final downfall of the AJ Smith / Norval Eugene Turner error ... I mean, era.

If the broncos win?  They enter next week's Sunday night showdown a game behind the Chiefs, in full control of their own destiny, for the division and the conference, in terms of the playoffs.

But if the Chargers win?  The Chiefs can all but clinch the division next Sunday night.  They can knock denver three back with six to play, and the donkeys would still have roadies to KC, New England, Houston, and the black hole remaining (plus a short week Thursday nighter at home against San Diego).

Chiefs fans?  We have NEVER wanted a San Diego "Super" Chargers victory more, than we do Sunday afternoon.

Call me a dreamer, say I'm a little naive ... but I believe, in the underdog.

(More specifically, I do NOT believe in Jack "Of The River", whatsoever.)

* at Chargers (+7 1/2) 35, donkeys 27.

The Chiefs Section Of This Post:

My midseason Chiefs thoughts will be posted separately, by Tuesday evening.  I was going to place them here, but felt they deserved their own separate piece.  Until then, enjoy the games everyone!

week twelve picks

The Statisticals. Last Week SU: 8-6-0. Season to Date SU: 98-62-1. Last Week ATS: 7-7-0. Season to Date ATS: 75-80-6. Last Week Upset / ...