Saturday, November 8, 2014

week ten: perfect memories ...

"Remember how they 
Tried to hold you down?
So we climbed those towers,
And looked out upon our town?

And everything you hoped would last?
It just always becomes your past.

And it hurts.

And summers when the money was gone?
You would sing,
All your little songs,
That meant everything to me.

And I'll remember you!
And the things that we used to do!
And the things that we used to say!
I'll remember you?  

Always ..."

-- "Perfect Memory" by Remy Zero, which, in the interest of full disclosure, is my ninth favorite song of all time, and yes, I am long overdue for the 2014 Stevo's Favorite Songs post ...

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Last Week ATS: 6-7-0.  In my defense -- I lost two of these because of the half point (Browns won by 6, took them 6 1/2; Bengals won by 10, took them 10 1/2.  Damned Danny Sheridan knowing his sh*t!  Oh, yeah -- Danny Sheridan: Stevo's Site Numero Dos' Official Games Of Chance Oddsmaker Since Freshman Year in High School!!!!!!)
Season To Date ATS: 63-69-2.

Last Week SU: 8-5-0.
Season To Date SU: 77-56-1.

Last Week "Screw You Pete King" Upset / Week: ugh.
Season to Date Upset / Week ATS: 5-6-0.
Season to Date Upset / Week SU: 5-6-0.
This Week "Screw You Pete King" Upset / Week: I only took two underdogs, and one has already won.  Which means this week, I'm wagering on the impossible, the improbable, the "he has officially lost his bleeping mind" game.  raiders (+11) over broncos.

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The Non-Chiefs, Non-Jets Wings and a Prayers:

* Browns (+6 ½) 27, at Bengals 21.  As sent out on Twitter Thursday night.  Which means, for the second time this season, I nailed a Thursday nighter!  Yay me!  (kazoo voice) !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

* Cowboys (-7) 31, Jaguars 13 (in London).  Since nobody asked, and nobody cares, I personally don’t have a problem with the Chiefs giving up a home game next year (the Chiefs will “host” the Lions in London at 8:30am CT on Sunday, November 4th.)  Every team is going to have to do it at some point; just get it out of the way.  What I do have a problem with, is the NFL continuing to charge full regular-season prices for the sh*tfest known as preseason football.

Here’s how horrific preseason football is: I almost never go.  Unless it is a perfect Stevo summer day (100 plus and not a cloud in the sky), or a buddy or two who rarely go are planning to attend, I pretty much refuse to go.  I hate preseason football with a passion.  To have to pay the exact same price to watch a glorified practice for 3 ½ hours, that I pay to watch the Chiefs (hopefully) end satan manning’s career in three weeks, is outrageous.

* at Lions (-2 ½) 31, Dolphins 28.  Ugh.  I don’t want to wager on either squad.  They’re both poorly coached, they’re both horribly overrated, and neither one is making the playoffs come late December.  I guess I’ll take the Lions at home … but I am not sold on this pick at all.

* at Saints 34, 49ers (+5 ½) 31.  The 49ers will throw everything except the kitchen sink into this one.  They’ve still got both Seahawks games, and host the Eagles, Chargers, and Cardinals in December.  This does not look good for them at this point.

* at Ravens (-10) 45, Titans 13.  “Gordon Shumway Game O’ The Week!” honors. 

* Falcons (-2 ½) 3, at Bucs 0.  “Good Times Game O’ The Week!” honors.

* at Cardinals 34, Rams (+6) 31.  Smells like an overtime game, where the Rams race to a quick lead, the Cards rally to tie it late, then survive in overtime.  Every contender has at least one of these a year – when a crappy team comes into their stadium and puts the fear of God in them.  (For the Chiefs playoff teams the last fifteen some odd years, those games would be Buffalo (1997, goalline stand as time expired to win), oakland (2003, Morton Anderson FG as time expired), oakland again (2006, aaron brooks picked off in end zone with 0:08 to play), Buffalo again (2010, Ryan Succup field goal as time expired in overtime), and Houston (2013, Case Keenum sacked and stripped with 1:20 to play).

* at Seahawks (-8) 38, Giants 10.  This Tom Coughlin era is ending almost exactly as the Jacksonville Tom Coughlin era did.  And that is not a good thing, if you’re a Giants fan.

* at raiders (+11) 27, broncos 20.  It is time once again, for Stevo’s Site Numero Dos’ Official Public Service Announcement.  It only gets said once a year, but it rings truer and truer, every year that passes.

“Peoples and peepettes, if the terrorists strike whatever the hell the coliseum is now known as while the raiders and broncos are playing, it is NOT a national tragedy.  It is cause for a national celebration!”

And given last week?  If the destruction wants to spread across the Bay this year, and take out those mean evil people from San Francisco and their baseball club, again, see the PSA above.

* at Packers (-7) 34, Bears 24.  I think this’ll be closer than most people think.

* at Eagles (-6 ½) 27, Panthers 17.  I’m in the minority, but I think Mark Sanchez will be just fine over the next month.  Is he a great quarterback?  No.  Did he lead the Jets to four playoff wins (all on the road) and two AFC Championship games in his rookie and second seasons?  Yes. 

The “Klassy” Kevin Keitzman Tweet O’ The Week:

Giving the Klassy One a pass this week.  Simply because there's nothing worth noting on his Twitter feed.  

The Poem:

There is no The Poem due to this being a Chiefs home game.

The Tailgating Plans:

There is no The Tailgating Plans due to this being a Chiefs home game.

The Watching Party Plans:

Same bat spot, same bat time, same bat channel.  (AKA “The Second Parents” house, arrive anytime after 11, and if you’re rooting for Buffalo, you’re banished to the basement.)

The Jets “Please Put Us Out Of Our Misery” Pick:

Do you realize the Jets are 4-21 all time against the Steelers?  Four.  And.  Twenty.  One.  And that record includes two brutally tough to swallow playoff defeats – in overtime in the 2004 Divisional Round (when Doug Brien couldn’t hit from 29 yards out), and in regulation in the 2010 AFC Championship Game.  (Which stung even worse when you remember one of the four wins, came five weeks earlier in a 22-17 victory that got the Jets into the playoffs.  The AFC Title Game margin of defeat?  Five points, 24-19.  The lesson?  God hates the Jets.)

I actually wore the Jets hoodie into work on Tuesday.  My co-worker Jarow (who openly mocks my support for the Jets … and in his defense, I can’t offer a, uuh, defense for my, uuh, defense, of the Jets), noted “wow.  You’ve got a bigger pair than me (for wearing said hoodie).

(Jarow is the guy who got stuck in Indy for four days, after the playoff loss last year, thanks to the thirty inches of snow that fell.)

I guess my way of saying this: I cannot even begin to defend, reason, or explain why I am making the pick I am … other than a course correction is due.

The Jets aren’t this bad.  The Steelers aren’t this good.

And this line is so freaking insane, I have to think Vegas knows something, we all don’t.

Because it’s at least ten points too low, based on who these teams are.

* at Jets (+4) 26, Steelers 23.

The Chiefs Prognostication (and Pointless Commentary About Whatever I Feel Like Pointlessly Commenting About):

The Chiefs do one thing quite well: they tend to rally from 0-2, 0-3 starts, to at least make things interesting by the midpoint.

Over the last fifteen years, we’ve seen this six times now:

* 2000: Chiefs open 0-2, losing to satan and his Colts in the opener, before losing in overtime to Tennessee.  The Chiefs win five of six (including an epic Monday Nighter over the Seahawks) to get to 5-3 at the midpoint.

* 2004: Chiefs open 0-3, getting drilled in denver, drilled by Carolina, and losing on a last second field goal to Houston.  They then win 3 of 4 (including an epic Monday Nighter at Baltimore, as well as a woodshed beating of satan manning and his Colts), to get to 3-4 at the midpoint.

* 2006: Chiefs open 0-2, seeing Trent Green nearly die in the opener against Cincinnati, and losing in overtime at denver.  They then win 5 of 6 (capped by Lawrence Tynes’ 53 yard field goal to beat San Diego at the gun), to get to 5-3 at the midpoint.

* 2007: Chiefs open 0-2, getting drilled in Houston and Chicago.  They then win 4 of 5 (including winning at San Diego as 14 ½ point underdogs), to get to 4-3 at the midpoint.

* 2011: Chiefs open 0-3, getting blown out by Buffalo and Detroit, losing Eric Berry and Jamaal Charles, and losing on a Cassel late INT at San Diego.  They then win 4 straight (including an epic Monday Nighter over the Chargers simply known as “The Phumble”), to get to 4-3 at the midpoint.

* 2014: Chiefs open 0-2, getting boatraced by Tennessee before losing to denver.  They then win 5 of 6 (including an epic Monday Night woodshed beating over New England by 30 points), to get to 5-3 at the midpoint.

Yes, I am aware there were other atrocious starts in there, that the Chiefs didn’t rally from.  They opened 0-2 in 2001, and finished 6-10 (although they did win 4 of 5 to end the season).  They opened 0-3 in 2008, and finished 2-14.  They opened 0-2 in 2012, and not only finished 2-14, they didn’t hold the lead in a game for a second of time, until Week 11 at Pittsburgh (another epic Monday Nighter … although not epic in a good way).

But five times before, we’ve seen the script play out like it has so far, in 2014.  Sucky start, rock solid rally … and then what?

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Only one of those previous five Chiefs teams, paid off for their midseason rally.

The 2000 team got to 5-3, then lost five straight.

The 2004 team got to 3-4, then lost five straight.

The 2007 team got to 4-3, then lost twelve straight across two seasons.

The 2011 team got to 4-3, then lost four straight ... then split a pair of road games, fired their head coach, upset the defending champion Packers, to control their own destiny at 6-8 ... and lost in overtime to oakland, before beating timothy r. tebow in his final regular season start, as a NFL quarterback.

The only team that made the rally worth it?  2006.  And even that took The Immaculate Fourfecta to earn a playoff berth, as that team would get to 7-4 after blowing the donkeys out of Arrowhead on Thanksgiving night ... before losing three straight, and needing some dude named Alex Smith to rally from down 0-13 at denver at halftime, to sneak into the playoffs.  (Where, go figure, we lost to the Colts.  Stunning -- Chiefs losing to Indy in the playoffs.  I know, I know -- that never happens!)

Circle me stupid ... but I think this season, will parallel 2006.  And not wind up like 2000, 2004, 2007, or 2011.

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I had an entirely different direction I was going to go, for the Chiefs rambling and/or pointless commentary.  And maybe I'll revisit what I was going to say, at some point in the near future.

But not today.

The pick?

This is the seventh straight year the Bills and Chiefs have faced off.  Buffalo is 4-2 to this point, owning Demolition Derby-style victories in 2008, 2009, 2011, and 2012, and the Chiefs having close wins in 2010 and last year.  If the standings of today hold, we'll meet those people again for an eighth straight year, next season.

It's the matchup this year, that is the biggest one to date, out of the seven.

Because the odds are really in the winner's favor, in terms of reaching the playoffs.

When in doubt ... take the team with the better coach, the better quarterback, and the better resume.

And for once?  All three of those things, are on the Chiefs sideline.

* Chiefs (-2) 28, at Bills 17.

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