Showing posts with label inside the numbers. Show all posts
Showing posts with label inside the numbers. Show all posts

Thursday, January 2, 2020

what seven years can mean ...

"I got my old man's Delta 88;
The windows cracked, I'm on the interstate.
Just a hundred miles to go,
On half a tank of gasoline.
Lucky Charms and Tic Tacs --
And mom's amphetamines.

A hundred miles to go to Kansas City!
(January) kinda makes me crazy!
A hundred miles to go to Kansas City!
Will you still be calling me your baby?

I met a man in a diner outside of Hays.
He said marriage brought him there;
It was divorce that made him stay.
I drove straight through to Junction City;
I thought I'd call you in Topeka,
But I didn't want the pity.

A hundred miles to go to Kansas City!
Yeah, (January) makes me kinda crazy!
A hundred miles to go to Kansas City!
Will you still be calling me your baby?

It feels like I've been thrown into the slammer,
With the back end of a hammer
Drawn through my strings!
Living became needing;
And crying became bleeding.
And now?  I am only dreaming ...

A hundred miles to go to Kansas City!
(January) makes me kinda crazy!
Oh, a hundred miles to go to Kansas City!
Will you still be calling me your baby?

Will you still be calling me ..."

-- "Kansas City" by Melissa Etheridge.  Please, dear God, I don't ask you for much, but please, please, please, let her sing the National Anthem next Sunday.  Or lead us in The Chop.  Because good grief, if you'll let Tech N9ne serve as our "spiritual leader", certainly Melissa Etheridge is up to the task ... yeah, she's definitely up to the task ...

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Arrowhead Pride posted earlier this week what they thought were the most important headlines from the past decade of Chiefs football.

As you might imagine, I have my opinion as to what the most important "headline" -- or moment, if you will -- of this past decade of Chiefs football, was.

And no, it wasn't the Chiefs drafting Patrick Mahomes "of the Chiefs".

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Also, earlier this week, Arrowhead Pride played host to one of the dumbest, stupidest, mentally challenged fanposts I've ever read.  And given that I (at least sometimes) proof read these posts before they, uuh, post, trust me kids -- I've read some dumb, stupid, mentally challenged things before.

Here is a link to the post, in case you want to see what someone who should be required to walk around in a drool guard and a helmet at all times, thinks like.

The only thing I could think reading Mr. Harley's post -- other than the obvious -- is that this dude clearly has no idea why the hiring of "Fat" Andy Reid on January 4, 2013, was not only the single most important "headline" of the Chiefs decade ... but is without question -- (allard baird voice) without question! -- the second most important Chiefs "headline" of my lifetime, second only to the Chiefs hiring of former Philadelphia Stars general manager Carl Peterson, to oversee their football operation, on December 19, 1988.

So, let's clue Mr. Harley in, shall we, as to the State of the Franchise on my birthday, seven years ago ... versus the State of the Franchise on my birthday, seven years later ... with said birthday, being tomorrow.

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For those of you reading this who don't remember the stretch of Chiefs football between Richard A. Vermeil and "Fat" Andy Reid, let's begin with a refresher for you.

(And for those of you reading this who do remember the stretch of Chiefs football between Richard A. Vermeil and "Fat" Andy Reid, you might want to go pour yourself a very, very, very stiff drink.  It's cool.  I can wait.  In fact, I'm going to join you in pouring that stiff drink.  Reliving these seven years via doing the research of them, means I've more than earned it.)

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As I have noted before, there are lies, damned lies, and statisticals.  (Note: I am sure I stole that line from someone.  I'm not creative enough to come up with that one on my own.)

For the 2006 through 2012 Chiefs, the statisticals don't lie, damned or otherwise.  They're all true.  They're all brutal.  They're all awful.  In case you doubt me, here are the seven seasons that comprised those, uuh, seven seasons:


The meaningful statisticals that jump out at you (or at least to me) on first glance:

* Point Differential.  It's the most meaningful statistical in sports, dating back to when our good friend Hubie Brown, during his run as the head coach of the Kentucky Colonels * , first popularized the stat.  He noted forty years ago that if his team scored 100 points / game (while allowing 100), they'd go .500.  (Note: no sh*t, Sherlock).  But he also noted that if his team scored 105 points / game (while allowing 100), they'd win 50, and if he could up that total to 110 points / game (versus allowing 100), they'd win 60.

Look at the point differential for the Chiefs in these seven years.  Only twice was it positive -- in 2006 (by one point!) and 2010 (by seventeen points).

Which probably explains ...

* The Losing.  Five losing seasons, four of them featuring at least twelve losses.  A stretch from the bye in 2007 through Week Five 2009 that saw the Chiefs lose twelve straight, win once, lose seven straight, win once, then lose nine straight.  For those doing the math at home or in the second office, that's a 2-28 stretch.  Two.  And.  Twenty Eight.

Also, every season save 2010 saw at least one three game losing streak ... and every season save 2010 and 2006, saw at least a four game losing streak.

And yes, the Chiefs really did lose two out of every three games they played, in this five year stretch.

Probably because of ...

* The Utter Stench of Sh*t at the Quarterback Position.  The Chiefs played 114 games that count in these seven years (112 regular season, 2 postseason).  These are the quarterbacks who started those 114 games:

Matt Cassel: 48 (includes one postseason start).
Damon Huard: 21.
Tyler Thigpen: 11.
"Brokie" Croyle: 10.
Trent Green: 9 (includes one postseason start).
Brady Quinn: 8.
Tyler Palko: 4.
Kyle Orton: 3.

And those quarterbacks record in their games played:

Matt Cassel: 19-29-0 (0-1-0 postseason).
Damon Huard: 10-11-0.
Tyler Thigpen: 1-10-0.
"Brokie" Croyle: 0-10-0.
Trent Green: 4-5-0 (0-1-0 postseason).
Brady Quinn: 1-7-0.
Tyler Palko: 1-3-0.
Kyle Orton: 2-1-0.

When the only starter with a winning record, is the one who has played the fewest games, it's probably not going to end well for you.  It certainly didn't for the Chiefs.

Also playing a key role in that craptacular stretch of ineptitude?

* The Instability at Offensive Coordinator.  The Chiefs had five different offensive coordinators in the final five seasons of this stretch, and six in these seven years.  Forget how destabilizing having three head coaches in five years is; when your offensive playbook hits the reset button virtually every offseason?

I don't care who you have under center, it's not going to end well for you.  It certainly didn't for the Chiefs -- the only two times in these seven years when the Chiefs ranked in the top half of the league?  Were the only two playoff (and winning) seasons.

And even then, finishing 15th and 14th (out of 32) is not something to write home to your mommy about.  Let alone brag to your bros about.

And finally, the "statistical" that isn't there.

* Saturday, December 1, 2012.  Simply put -- and I would argue this really isn't, uuh, arguable -- simply put, the darkest day in Chiefs history.  The lowest moment in the history of the franchise.  The day when linebacker Jovan Belcher coldly and calculatingly killed his fiance (and mother of his child), before driving to Arrowhead and killing himself in front of Defensive Coordinator Gary Gibbs, Head Coach Baffoon, and General Manager Scott "Candy Wrapper" Pioli.

Just when you think things could not get worse -- remember, the 2012 Chiefs had led for less than twenty minutes in eleven games up to that point, they hadn't scored an offensive touchdown in over a month, and the fans who did show up (hey, that's me!) were wearing black and turning Arrowhead into a funeral parlor -- well, go figure.

Arrowhead did become a literal funeral parlor, on that tragic Saturday morning.

I went back and read my recap of that day and its' aftermath on Tuesday night, when I began typing this post.  (Note: to this day, it is still the most clicked / read post in this site's (now three decade posting!) history.)  And while some of it doesn't stand up seven years later (why did I ever give those two "friends" the benefit of the doubt), one thing in that post has definitely stood the test of time:


Exactly four weeks after I posted that, uuh, post, Coach Baffoon was relieved of his, uuh, coaching duties, following (go figure) four more losses to close out the worst season in franchise history, to close out arguably the worst seven year stretch in franchise history, to close out one sad, pathetic, miserable stretch of football, even by Chiefs standards.  And yes, I am fully aware the Chiefs once went fifteen years without coming within even a game, of a wild card berth, let alone a division championship.

Exactly five days after arriving at that decision?

Clark Hunt made the "headline" of the decade.

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(*: Wow, didn't expect to write that much before coming back to the * .  If you have never read "Loose Balls" by Terry Pluto, well, you should.  It's the greatest basketball book I've ever read -- it's a (mostly oral) history of the greatest basketball association ever formed, the original ABA.  Everything I -- and most of you -- enjoy about the game today?  Occurred because the owners of the ABA had the balls to try it.  Right down to the red, white, and blue ball that the NBA still uses as the "money ball" on All Star Saturday night -- an event that you're damned right, the ABA came up with, over forty years ago.)

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As you might expect, I had a reaction when Mr. Hunt made the "Headline O' The Decade" by hiring "Fat" Andy Reid.  As you might not expect, I was anything but happy about the hiring.  (Note: I have rarely -- if ever -- been more wrong about something, than I was about how I thought "Fat" Andy Reid's tenure here in Kansas City would go.)

But -- I think! -- I think I got one thing right, in that "boy, Stevo is a dumb f*ck idiot" post:


So ... which "Fat" Andy Reid did the Chiefs get?

I'm so glad you asked ...

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Because here are the statisticals from the (first) seven years of the "Fat" Andy Reid era, through last Sunday:


Sweet Jesus, what a difference competent coaching makes, huh?  There are five statisticals that stand out to me, at first glance, and let's begin with the Captain Oats in the room:

* The Winning.  The Chiefs have posted at least one five game winning streak, every season under "Fat" Andy.  Every.  Single.  Season.  And in six of the seven, they have posted at least a six game winning streak (all but 2014).

The Chiefs have won their opener six times out of seven (all but 2014 ** ).  They have opened 2-2 or better six out of seven seasons (all but 2015).  The last three seasons -- all ending in AFC West Division Championships -- the Chiefs have opened at least 4-0, all but burying the divisional competition before the season hits the quarter pole.

Oh, and the previous seven years, which saw the Chiefs lose two out of every three games they played?

The Chiefs have won two out of every three games, "Fat" Andy has coached.

(**: hey, remember when I did game recaps and tailgating highlights on this site?  Yeah, me neither.)

Of course, a key reason the Chiefs manage to go strokin' ... I mean, streakin' every season?

Well, duh ...

* The Scoring.  The previous seven seasons, the Chiefs averaged a little over seventeen points a game; under "Fat" Andy, they average -- average! -- almost twenty nine.  "Fat" Andy has literally given the Chiefs a two touchdown advantage, every game, over his three predecessors, combined!

And you say, "well, he has Patrick Mahomes", which is a valid argument ... but it's not like "Sir" Alex Smith was a bumbling idiot along the lines of "Brokie" Croyle or Tyler Palko.  The Chiefs were NEVER shut out -- not even once -- with "Sir" Alex under center.  They failed to score double digits only twice -- a "nobody gives a damn" game against the Colts in 2013 (the Chiefs were already locked into the five seed), and the one indefensible game of the "Sir" Alex era, at the Giants in 2017.

Which leads to the third statistical to be noted ...

* The Point Differential.  The Chiefs have yet to post a negative point differential under "Fat" Andy.  They have yet to post less than a plus seventy differential (which per the Pythagorean Theorem, is an expected nine plus wins, every season.  The Chiefs have met their Pythagorean number, or exceeded it, every season so far under "Fat" Andy.)

One big reason for that point differential?  Of course.

* The Consistency at Quarterback.  "Sir" Alex Smith missed one game in five years due to injury (Week Nine 2016 vs Jaguars).  Patrick Mahomes "of the Chiefs" has missed two games in two years due to injury (Weeks Eight and Nine 2019).

Just like the previous seven years were defined by constant turnover at the most important position, these seven years have been defined by no turnover at the most important position.  Here is how the 119 starts (so far) break down by starter:

* "Sir" Alex Smith: 81 (includes five postseason starts).
* Patrick Mahomes "of the Chiefs": 33 (includes two postseason starts).
* Chase Daniel: 2.
* Matt Moore: 2.
* Nick Foles: 1.

And here are the starters' records in the last seven years:

* "Sir" Alex Smith: 51-30-0 (1-4-0 postseason).
* Patrick Mahomes "of the Chiefs": 25-8-0 (1-1-0 postseason).
* Chase Daniel: 1-1-0.
* Matt Moore: 1-1-0.
* Nick Foles: 1-0-0.

When your established starting quarterback(s) make 113 of 119 starts, and win two out of every three starts they make?  Things are going to end well for you.  And they have for the Chiefs.

As evidenced by ...

* The Postseason Appearances.  The Chiefs have made the playoffs six of the seven seasons under "Fat" Andy, and were the first team out, the only season they missed (2014).  Under "Fat" Andy, the Chiefs won their first playoff game in a generation (2015), their first home playoff game in a generation (2018), and hosted the AFC Title Game for the first time (2018).  They will play at a minimum a fifth straight home playoff game (please ignore the 1-3 record in the prior four ... although the three losses are by nine total points, and one was in overtime), and are a nearly 75% favorite to reach the AFC Title Game for a second straight season.  Considering the Chiefs have made two AFC Title Games in my lifetime -- and I turn 43 tomorrow -- that's one impressive run by Chiefs standards.

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No matter how this Mr. Harley dude wants to complain, b*tch and moan?  (Which is his right to do, to be fair.)

What's his beef?  That we don't suck anymore, since "Fat" Andy Reid came to town?

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Seven years ago, this franchise lay in utter and total (stewie griffin voice) roo-eens.  About to hire a fourth head coach in seven years.  About to employ a sixth offensive coordinator in seven years.  A glaring hole at quarterback on the field, utterly senseless and deadly holes in players and loved ones of players, off the field.

Today, thanks to one "headline", the past is dead and buried so deep, we needn't fear a zombie attack from it.  Thanks to one "headline", the Chiefs have gone from the doormat of the division, to the alpha male of the division.  Thanks to one "headline", the Chiefs are positioned to dominate the decade in the AFC, much like the Philadelphia Eagles did for most of the previous decade in the NFC.  (Seriously, five title games in eight years.  That is insane.)

How awesome it is, that that "headline", is ours.

Enjoy the games everyone.  And realize just how far we've come in seven years.  Seven years ago, the Divisional Round was a crack pipe dream.  Today?  It's not enough.

All thanks to one "headline", seven years ago, (jimmy buffett voice) come Saturday.

There's only one correct answer, for the defining Chiefs moment of the decade.

The hiring of Andrew Walter Reid.

And anyone who argues otherwise, should probably seek help from a mental health professional.  (Pause).  What?  (Pause).  Well of course I can offer up some gifted professionals in the crazy field!  I'm pretty sure I've laid on their couch a time or three in my life ...

Monday, September 24, 2018

inside the numbers: thirty years of abject sh*t under center ...

"Do you have the time?
To listen to me whine?
About nothing, and everything,
All at once?

I am one of those?
Melodramatic fools.
Neurotic to the bone,
No doubt about it!

Sometimes I give myself the creeps.
Sometimes my mind plays tricks on me.
It all keeps adding up;
I think I'm cracking up.

Am I just paranoid,
Or am I just stoned? ..."

-- "Basket Case" by Green Day. *

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(*: riddle me this, you IT experts: "company I work for" has blocked Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, Yahoo email, Gmail, uuh, email, and other assorted sites and time-spenders.  Yet YouTube! is unfiltered, and this site is wide open for posting.  (gary busey in "drop zone" voice) God bless America!)

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Happy Victory Monday, Arrowhead Nation!  I know a recap of the festivities of yesterday is due to you, and I plan to get to it at some point later on this overcast, dreary Monday here in Midtown KC.

(Damned right I showed up for work today intending to do nothing job-related.)

Anyways, the first post of the day? / week? / (definitely not) month, is a query asked to me at halftime yesterday:

"I need a breakout by year on how long it took chefs QBs to get to 13 TD passes each season".

You text?

You receive.

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For the record, I pulled all stats from Pro Football Reference, which is a great site if you're a stats geek (and cheap -- it's all free!), like me.

And also for the record?

This chart is brutal folks.  It is f*cking brutal to look at.

But -- and wait, this isn't a good thing either -- it does explain a lot, about the last thirty years, of Kansas City Chiefs football.

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The Chart.

Below, is a list of each Chiefs season over the last thirty years, and how long it took said team to throw a 13th touchdown pass that season:


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First, the five things that in no way, shape or form surprised me:

1. The Chiefs failed to throw for 13 TDs in the entire 2012 season.  They threw for 8 total on the season and, if Brady Quinn hadn't turned in the performance of his career on the darkest morning of football Arrowhead has ever hosted, they would not have thrown for a touchdown the entire second half of the 2012 season (plus a week, added in as a "Paul Bunyan hat for the kids" prize, I'm sure).

2. The next fastest Chief to throw for 13 TDs to open the season ... was Trent Green.  It took him five games and change into the sixth in 2002.  The next three fastest Chiefs to do it?  "Sir" Alex Smith last year, Elvis Grbac in 2000 ... and Steve Bono in 1995.  Both required six games and change into the seventh to pull the feat off.

3. Priest Holmes probably cost Trent Green at least 40 TDs.  It was amazing to go back and read the box scores from 2003, 2004, 2005, and see just how run heavy those Al Saunders / Richard A. Vermeil offenses were.  Everyone remember how prolific those five years were at scoring and racking up yardage.  I'd forgotten how much of it was on the ground, versus in the air.

4. When you have two quarterbacks you think are capable of playing?  You've got no quarterbacks that are actually capable of playing.  On seasons when multiple Chiefs quarterbacks had to contribute to reach the 13 TD mark (11/30, approximately a third of the last thirty years), they have made the playoffs only three times: 1993, 1997, and 2006.  I also don't think it stuns any Chiefs fan to see the layout from 2007-2012.  Only one season did one quarterback man the helm, and that season was the only division championship (and playoff berth) in that stretch (2010).

5. Both Elvis Grbac and Steve Bono were better than most Chiefs fans give them credit for being.  As the resident Steve Bono defender to this day, that was good to know.

Second, the four things that in every way, shape, or form did surprise me:

1. The 2012 Chiefs season was even worse than I remember it to be.  Seriously, you remove Brady Quinn's career performance against the Panthers on arguably the darkest morning in Chiefs history, and you are literally putting an entire year without a touchdown pass in play.

2. "Martyball" wasn't quite the "ground-n-pound" adventure I remember it to be.  I know in high school (and Jesus, am I aging myself), but in high school, the running gag was that the Chiefs offense was "run, run, pass, punt".  In hindsight?  Not so much.

3. A Chiefs quarterback, on average, throws his 13th touchdown in Week 12.  The average with all 30 seasons included is 11.8867 (356 / 30).  If you remove the two outliers (2018 and 2012), the average is ... exactly 12 (336 / 28).  I figured the average week would be high ... but I was thinking Week Nine, Week Ten.  Nope.  Week Twelve.  Or to put this into perspective, what Patrick Mahomes "Of The Chiefs" has done in three weeks?

Takes damned near every other Chiefs quarterback four times as long to achieve.  And only one -- in thirty years! -- has managed to do it in twice the time!

4. Only two quarterbacks started enough to throw 13 TD passes for five years.  Trent Green and Alex Smith.  That's it.  No other quarterback appears more than twice, and even then, only one appears twice (DeBerg).  And before you say "well, injuries" -- don't.  There is no other Chiefs quarterback to make it to Year Five in thirty years.  Only Mr. Green and Mr. Smith.  (Mr. Cassel and Mr. Grbac made it four.)

Third, the three undeniable conclusions to draw from this chart:

1. Not drafting a quarterback in the first round for the first twenty nine years in this chart, is incompetence on display.  To be fair, I do believe the Chiefs tried to "draft" their long-term solution under center once -- in 2001, when they traded their first round pick to the Rams for Trent Green.  And had Trent Green not had the living bejezus knocked out of him in the 2006 opener against the Bengals, who knows, maybe he lasts until 2008, 2009, and we view things differently in regards to the Chiefs quarterback situation. 

Still -- twenty nine years, not one first round pick spent on a quarterback.  That's just rank, stank incompetence.  Which then begs the question ...

2. How in God's name did Carl "I'm One Bad Ass Negotiator" Peterson keep his job for twenty years?  The one indefensible pass on a quarterback -- and spare me Chiefs fans, because you know I'm right on this -- the one utterly indefensible pass was to draft Derrick Johnson instead of Aaron Rodgers at 15 in the 2005 NFL Draft.  (Note: Carl "Shut The F*ck Up And Sit The F*ck Down" Peterson's draft record deserves it's own examination, because Carl "Who We Talkin' To Here" Peterson was -- and presumably still is -- a HORRIBLE evaluator of college talent.  Thankfully for you people, I already did that ten years ago.)

But seriously.  Twenty years, and the man never once swung for the fences.  (Even worse, by the last five, six years,, his incompetence was so pronounced you wanted him to trade the pick for a one year rental, because at least the rental might be on the roster in two years.)

And again, spare me Chiefs fans with the "well we already had Trent Green" justifications.  Our current administration?  Has just shown you in three f*cking games why you NEVER stop drafting for the future, no matter how capable and well-handled a position may be in the present.

3. Going back to the overall chart -- no Chiefs fan can be surprised most of us have never seen our team in a Super Bowl.

Where's the stability?  Where's the longevity?  Where's the commitment to the position, to find "our" guy, put him under center, and sink or swim?  If you can find it, you're smarter than me.

Because again, look at that chart.  No Chiefs QB has been competent / healthy / young enough, to be the guy who gets us to TD 13 for more than five straight years.  That's not how you win in the NFL, and it hasn't been for pushing six decades.

Fourth, the two things Chiefs fans have to be excited about:

1. We ain't never seen anything like this before.  Looking at the chart again, here are the three game stretches where a Chiefs QB has thrown for (at least) 10 TDs in that three game stretch.  (Stretch highlighted in yellow):


Two.  That's it.  Mr. Mahomes the last three weeks at Chargers (W) / at Steelers (W) / vs 49ers (W), and Trent Green back in 2002 at Patriots (L/OT) / vs Dolphins (W) / at Jets (W) / at Chargers (L).  That's it.

(Note: four games are highlighted because whether you take Weeks 3, 4, and 5, or take Weeks 4, 5, and 6, you arrive at 10 TDs in 3 games.)

Let's take this further, and loosen the rules.  Highlighted in blue, using the referred chart for this post, are stretches where a Chiefs QB threw for 9 TDs (or more) in a 3 game stretch:


(Is this where I mention, that adding Elvis Grbac and Tyler Thigpen into the equation, is only making Patrick Mahomes "Of The Chiefs" look even better than he already does?)

Finally, just for sh*ts and giggles, I would have run the same exercise for 8 TDs in a three game stretch, only, (norm macdonald voice) you guessed it -- Frank Stallone!

Actually, you guessed it: no changes.

Simply put, Patrick Mahomes "Of The Chiefs" has delivered the finest three game stretch by a Chiefs quarterback in literally thirty years.  And possibly in the nearly sixty years, this franchise has existed.

2. Patrick Mahomes "Of The Chiefs" will make his fifth start on Monday night.

I feel like this cannot be stated enough.

In four starts, he's trumped pushing forty years of abject sh*t under center for the Red and Gold.  He's better in his fifth week, than any quarterback we've had in the last four decades in their fifth year!  Again, he'll make his fifth start on Monday night!

(fran tarkenton voice) That's incredible!

Fifth, and finally, the (somewhat) Captain Oats in the room, everyone seems to be ignoring:

1. The most brilliant offensive mind in football, is running the show.  And he's not leaving anytime soon.

That mind, of course, being "Fat" Andy Reid.

Which is part of why I'm so geeked for Monday.  Because the one team in this league that has seen Mr. Mahomes before, is those people.  They're the one team that has had personnel line up against Mr. Mahomes, and face off against him before.  No other team could -- or can -- say that, at least until Week Sixteen, when the "Super" Chargers get their second crack at him.

If those people don't have a plan to stop him, having already seen him?

Who will have a plan, to stop "Fat" Andy's use of Patrick Mahomes "Of The Chiefs"?

It's why I think this year could really be something special for the Red and Gold.  There's no prior database of knowledge for teams to draw from against us.  Every other team is living this in real time, for the first time, exactly as we are.  As Ms. Chen-Moonves reminds us three times a week on the one show I cannot defend my love for: you can't prepare for the unexpected.  You can only adapt to it, react to it.

Right now?  No team has even the slightest idea, how to react to what we are all seeing.

For the first time in pushing my entire life, when it comes to having no idea how to react to what we're seeing out of the Chiefs?

That's a really good thing to say ...

week twelve picks

The Statisticals. Last Week SU: 8-6-0. Season to Date SU: 98-62-1. Last Week ATS: 7-7-0. Season to Date ATS: 75-80-6. Last Week Upset / ...