really half assed week four picks

I'll figure out The Statisticals next week.

The Week Four Picks:

* at Jets (-1) 3, those people 0.

* at Bears (+2 1/2) 24, Colts 20.

* at Lions (+4) 27, Saints 17.

* "Super" Cardinals (-3 1/2) 31, at Panthers 14.

* at Bengals (-3) 27, Jaguars 17.

* at Cowboys (-4 1/2) 31, Browns 20.

* at Texans (-4) 35, Vikings 24.

* Seahawks 31, at Dolphins (+6 1/2) 28.

* at Buccaneers (-7) 45, "Super" Chargers 3.

* Ravens 14, at Redskins (+13) 10.

* at Rams (-13) 41, Giants 10.

* at raiders (+3) 31, Bills 20.  Upset O' The Week.

* Eagles (-7) 20, at 49ers 14.

* at Packers (-7 1/2) 31, "Shane" Falcons 3.

* at Chiefs (-7) 34, Patriots 14.

week four chiefs pick

"Upside down!
Boy?  You turn me
Inside out,
And round and round!

Upside down!
Boy?  You turn me
Inside out,
And round and round! ..."

-- "Upside Down" by Diana Ross.

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The Chiefs Pontification and Prognostication:

Picking the Chiefs This Season:

Straight Up: 2-1-0.
Against the Spread: 2-1-0.

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I have long held that there is one great, rarely disclosed, yet always true advantage to being a season ticket holder, that is true frankly in any sport, but especially football.

And that is the fact that you not only are paying to see the best your team has to offer ... but you get to see the best the entire sport has to offer, as well.

The reason I argue this hidden advantage most applies to the NFL, is because you're only guaranteed to see every team in person, via your season ticket(s), once every eight years.

It's why the game I'm most hyped about this season isn't the Colts Sunday nighter next week or the Packers Sunday nighter to close October; it's the only non-prime time game (as of now * ) the Chiefs play in October, when Deshaun Watson and the Houston Texans roll into town.

(*: assuming CBS protected Chiefs at Patriots -- and if they didn't, someone should be fired -- this is NBC's best shot to snag another Chiefs game this season, save for Week Seventeen (which doesn't count against the six prime time game limit.  (The Chiefs currently have five prime timers, which begin next Sunday against the Colts.))  I'm guessing NBC -- with the NFL's gentle push -- pulls the trigger Tuesday afternoon, if the Bengals beat the Steelers tomorrow, to flex Texans at Chiefs into prime time.)

I cannot wait to see Deshaun Watson in person.  Frankly, I haven't been this geeked up to see a newbie enter Arrowhead since probably Cam Newton seven years ago.

Sometimes, you have to wait the full eight years to see them.  For example, the earliest we'll see Kyler Murray in a game that counts at Arrowhead is 2026, should he last that long.

But look at who's making their Arrowhead debuts over the next few seasons (and note: I may be higher on some of these dudes than you are, but (a) it's my site, (b) it's my post, and (c) it's my money, so deal with it):

2019: Jacoby Brissett (Colts, Week Five); Deshaun Watson (Texans, Week Six).
2020: Sam Darnold (Jets); Christian McCaffrey (Panthers); Josh Allen (Bills).
2021: Daniel Jones (Giants); Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott (Cowboys); Baker Mayfield (Browns).
2022: Jared Goff, Todd Gurley (Rams).

And note, this list doesn't include the fact that all three divisional rivals will likely be sporting new quarterbacks within the next three years (one of them -- those people -- possibly as soon as Week Fifteen), nor does it take into account potential changes in New England (here in 2020), Pittsburgh (here in 2021), or Miami (here in 2022, likely with Tua at the helm), Jacksonville (here in 2022 -- Minshew?  Top 10 pick in next three years?), and Tennessee (here in 2022 -- no way it's still Mariota, right?).

So there's that.

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Then there's the long, painful wait between visits.

For example, we got to see Tom Brady at Arrowhead in 2004 (L 19-27) and 2005 (W 26-16).  We didn't see him again until 2014 (W 44-14), nine years later.

We got to see Aaron Rodgers in 2011 (W 19-14).  We'll see him again for the first time since 2011 in four weeks.

We got to see Cam Newton in 2012 (W 27-21).  We might see him again next year.  Ditto Matt Ryan (L 26-40).

Russell Wilson was here in 2014 (W 24-20).  He won't be back until 2022 (if we're lucky).

So there's that also.

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Which brings me to the good to great quarterback we have yet to see at Arrowhead, despite being in the NFL for over a decade ... and frankly, probably never will see at Arrowhead, despite a decade of service.  And that is today's opponent, Matt Stafford.

Drafted first overall in 2008, the Chiefs first game against him was in Detroit in Week Two, 2011.  (Best remembered as the game Jamaal Charles blew out his knee, in a 48-3 loss that dropped the Chiefs to 0-2 in that doomed campaign.)  The first time the Chiefs would have hosted Mr. Stafford would have been in 2015.  Only that game was played in London (a 45-10 Chiefs win on arguably the greatest sporting day of my lifetime here in Kansas City -- November 1, 2015).

And now, the third matchup flips back to Detroit.  Meaning the earliest Matt Stafford would play at Arrowhead as a Lion is 2023.

I hate to be blunt ... but if Barry Sanders and Calvin Johnson couldn't handle more than a decade in Detroit, do you really think Matt Stafford is sticking around another four years just to make a trip to Arrowhead?

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(Note: we only got to see Barry Sanders once, in 1990.  We never got to see Calvin Johnson.  Yet another reason I strongly support expanding the regular season to 18 games -- give the fans what they want, which is (a) more football that counts against (b) opponents we may only get to see once in person.)

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So let me close with this, I suppose, since it's less than three hours from kickoff, I still need to shower, shave, and dress, then head to McFadden's for the game.

Last night, this site's "The Voice of Reason" went in person to Lincoln to witness the Ohio State / Nebraska game, as I settled in on the couch with a few stiff cocktails and cold pizza to watch the game on TV.  (Note: funny how fifteen, even twenty years later, some sh*t never changes.)  I think -- based on conversations last Sunday, as well as throughout the week -- we were both interested in seeing the two same things.  First, just how "back" are the Huskers under Scott Frost, and second, just how good is Adrian Martinez, the Nebraska quarterback?

In the words of the great Mark Rolfing, he's looking for the lie to the first question, but the answer to the second question is "bad".

Adrian Martinez has looked nothing short of a future starting NFL quarterback for over a year.  Even in defeat up until now, he hasn't been the cause of said defeat.

Last night?  He looked worse than anything KU has trotted out under center since Todd Reesing, and I am fully aware Mr. Reesing hasn't taken a snap since Mark Mangino was (not) fired for eating Obie the Orange.

(God, I miss the old school KU Football t-shirts sometimes ... just like I miss giving a sh*t about KU Football sometimes.)

Enjoy watching Matt Stafford on Sunday, Chiefs fans.  This may be the closest we ever see him here in KC ... save for that annual game in Minnesota or Chicago (whichever is closer) we could drive to, but have no reason to.  Which truly sucks.

I hope he's still around in 2023.  I'm guessing he won't be.

But as fun as it would be to see Mr. Stafford in person?

We get to see the greatest ever at the position, four of the next five weeks, inside the stadium that will someday be named in his honor.

Unlike not seeing Mr. Stafford?  Unlike Mr. Martinez' performance last night?

That does NOT suck.

Not in the least.

* Chiefs (-6) 37, at Lions 30.

the week four non chiefs picks

Last Week SU: 8-8-0.
Season to Date SU: 29-18-1.

Last Week ATS: 6-10-0.
Season to Date ATS: 25-22-1.

Last Week Upset / Week: bango!
Season to Date Upset / Week SU: 2-1-0.
Season to Date Upset / Week ATS: 2-1-0.
This Week Upset / Week: (Pause).  I can't decide, so I'll take two!  Browns (+6 1/2) over Ravens, and Jaguars (+3) over those people.

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The Non-Chiefs Picks:

Byes: Jets (0-3-0), 49ers (3-0-0).  One of these teams should sign Colin Kaepernick and start him next week.  And it ain't Colin's former squad.  And yes, I'm dead serious about this.  Call Mr. Kaepernick on his bluff.  He doesn't give a sh*t about getting back into the League.  If he did, he wouldn't have taken the multi-million settlement last year. 

Give him a chance to start, in the nation's largest media market, for a team talented enough to make its next three games (at Eagles / vs Cowboys / vs Patriots (MNF)) entertaining television.  The eyes of the nation would be on him.  He could resurrect his career Michael Vick style, and prove his critics to be the dumb f*ck idiots they are.  Or he could completely flop, and prove his critics to not be the dumb f*ck idiots they are.

Seriously, what have the Jets got to lose?  Their dignity and pride?  (Hint: you can't lose what you never had (rimshot!))  More games?  (Few teams do that better (rimshot!))  If anything, this might help attendance, and profits, as this (yet another!) lost season unfolds.  I'd show up to see what Mr. Kaepernick still has in the tank.  Then again, I showed up after the worst 24 hours in Chiefs history at the (old school TV show voice) same bat time, same bat channel, as always, so I'm probably a bad gauge on this.

But seriously, Jets.  Sign Colin Kaepernick.  Use the bye week to get him to learn Adam Gase's offense (which, granted, can be diagrammed on a couple of cocktail napkins (rimshot!)).  Then let him have some fun. 

Because God forbid a Jets season actually be, you know, fun.

On to the actual picks ...

* Last night.  Already off to a craptacular 0-1 SU / 0-1 ATS start.

* at Texans (-4) 31, Panthers 21.  With all due respect, anyone can look decent against the Arizona "Super" Cardinals.  Too much Deshaun Watson.  And realize this: come 4pm CT Sunday?  The Texans will be a 53 yard made field goal away from being 4-0-0.  Of course, they're also a (questionably) failed two point conversion and failed fourth and goal away from being 0-3-0 entering this thing. 

(My way of saying?  Week Six might get flexed.  What would you rather have in prime time if you were NBC -- Watson vs Mahomes for the first time ... or a potentially 0-5-0 Steelers team at a potentially 2-3-0 "Super" Chargers squad that nobody -- up to and including their own fans -- gives a sh*t about?  Dare a kid dream?  FOUR straight Chiefs prime time games?  The hope is in play ...)

* Browns (+6 1/2) 31, at Ravens 21.  If the Browns lose this one, it might be time to consider a coaching change.  And I'm fully aware we're only three games into the Freddie Kitchens Era Error.  The Chiefs (and "Super" Cardinals) gave you the blueprint on how to beat this allegedly good Ravens team -- throw it deep, and throw it often.  Make them play catch-up, because Lamar Jackson isn't good enough to play from more than a score behind.  Let alone three, like last week here at Arrowhead. 

Also, don't call a draw play on 4th and 9 with the game on the line.  Not even I'm that f*cking stupid, and God knows I've made many, many, many a questionable dumb f*ck play call on Madden over the years with my Chadwick Pennington-led Jets.  (Cue "The Voice of Reason", "Jasson", "bts", "Deadbeat Ex Roommate", and the artist formerly known as "The Champ", laughing out loud in agreement.)

* at Giants (-3) 26, Redskins 20.  This is less an endorsement of "Danny Dimes", than it is a damnation of Case Keenum.  Also, if "Danny Dimes" isn't the worst nickname this sign of "Son of Sam" or "The Night Stalker", I have no clue what could be worse.  Seriously, "Danny Dimes" is the best the Giants fan base can do?  Jesus, the Post should have done better.  (And to be fair, probably did.)

* "Super" Chargers 31, at Dolphins (+15) 27.  This game will be competitive long into the fourth quarter.  Because let's be honest here folks: the only reason my "the "Super" Chargers will finish dead last in the AFC West" pick doesn't look like gold at this point, is because "those people" are so sh*tty, they're winless after three weeks for the first time in two decades.  (Pause).  What?  (Pause).  You're damned right that's a trade I'll make every day of the week!

* raiders (+6 1/2) 31, at Colts 30.  Total gut feeling.  The raiders aren't 1-2 bad; the Colts aren't 2-1 good.  Also, as much as I hate the raiders ... seriously NFL?  Seven straight weeks away from home?  That's indefensible, NFL Schedule Guru.  Indefensible.

* Patriots 34, at Bills (+7) 30.  In the words of the (not) late but (still) great Hall and Oates: "so close!  So close!  Yet so far away ..."

* at "Shane" Falcons (-4) 30, Titans 20.  Toughest game on the board to make a pick for, at least for me.  And since I'm the one making these picks, I think that matters.  At least to me.

* at Rams (-9 1/2) 41, Bucs 13.  "Good Times" Game O' The Week honors.  Spending twenty some odd minutes watching this Season Seven (aka final season) classic?  Is a far better use of your time, than watching even two seconds of this guaranteed "red headed stepchild taken to the woodshed" beating.

(Also, I so need to reboot that fond look back ... because a few of those unlooked at twenty seven have been replaced over the last six years.  That may be a rainy Saturday project ... (stevo checking tomorrow's forecast) well lookie there!  It's a rainy Saturday!  (mr. hoduski voice) Stay tuned ...

* at "Super" Cardinals (+6) 24, Seahawks 20.  The "Super" Cardinals have one indefensible upset in them this season.  This is it.

* at Bears (-2) 28, Vikings 20.  What's worse: Kirk Cousins on the road, or Mitchell Trubisky anywhere?  I lean Mr. Cousins on the road ... although that's like choosing between being shot in the head, or having your head cut off, as the worser way to die. 

To think the Bears traded up to pass on Patrick Mahomes "Of the Chiefs" for this guy!  I mean, what the hell, Bears GM?  I'd ask what you were drinking, but we all know the answer is "something alcoholic in nature".  You traded up and passed on not one, but two generational talents, for Mitchell Trubisky?  Because why?  Not even I would have done that, and in case you doubt me, here you go.

* Jaguars (+3) 24, at those people 13.  We're about one week away from bringing back my favorite section from last season's picks, the "This Week in those people Misery" section.  This ... I mean, sweet Jesus, not even I imagined the vic fangio hiring would be this sh*ttacular, this fast.  We're three weeks in, and a defense with von miller and bradley chubb has yet to sack a quarterback.  A team with decent talent at the offensive skill positions has been ass-raped in oakland, screwed by the refs against the Bears (although to be fair, the Bears dominated that game), and outright sodomized by the Packers. 

The those people haven't opened 0-4 since 1999 (the year after they cheated by circumventing the salary cap to win their second Lombardi).  As far as I can tell, they have never opened 0-5 or worse.  There's a damned decent chance that if they drop this one, they'll be 0-6 entering the showdown at fake mile high in three weeks.

It's a 50/50 coin flip if I make the game there in three weeks at this point; my work schedule is not exactly helping make that trip likely.  But if they're 0-6 and we're 6-0?  I'll find a way to be there, even if I have to steal daddy's credit card to book a quick flight in and out to make it happen.

The lesson?  As always.  #neverdenver

* Cowboys (-2 1/2) 34, at Saints 24.  If Dak is who my buddy Vineet believes he is, then the Cowboys win this game comfortably.  If Dak is who I believe he is, the Saints win this one in a blowout.  You can guess whose knowledge, foresight, and wisdom, I am relying on.  Hint: it ain't mine.

* Bengals (+4) 3, at Steelers 0.  Jesus bleeping Christ, this might be the worst prime-time game on the schedule this season.  (stevo looking at said schedule.)  Oh my God, we still have to endure a Dolphins at Steelers game on the final Monday in October.  Holy hell, it might be 0-7 at 0-7!  And look at those number -- zeros and sevens!  Holy sh*tballs Batman, we may finally get an actual 007 Slappers mode fight on the field!

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The "Klassy" Kevin Kietzman Tweet O' The Week.

I really wish El Kapitan would return to Twitter Nation, beyond his re-tweeting his defamation of Kansas basketball.  His silence is deafening.  If not defeating.  I miss having the only person on Twitter not named Adam Schiff, dumber than me, positing his dumb ass ideas and opinions online.  Because when you have two people between you and the bat sh*t crazy line? 

It's much better than only having one.

But in the meantime, can someone figure out what the hell this means:

His "favorite little buddy"?  I can only imagine what that has to refer to.  It sure as hell ain't his Marcus Peters, right?

(Note: yes, I know it's his dog.  But come on.  It's "K"KK.  He probably has (allegedly) solicited his dog, like he (allegedly) did his now-wife twenty years ago.)

(Also, double note: what golf course lets dogs roam free on their grounds?  Let alone ride unaccompanied on their carts?  Not even Teetering Rocks allows that, and they'll permit chicks vomiting on the 4th, 5th, 6th, 8th, 9th, and 10th tee boxes for f*ck's sake!  Uuh, not that I'd know.)

Let's move on, before Kaptain "Your Krack is Showing" sues me for defamation of his non-existent kharacter and klass ...

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The Tailgating Plans.

There are no The Tailgating Plans, as this is a Chiefs game I will not be in attendance for.

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The Watching Party Plans.

We will be at McFadden's down in Power and Light.  Feel free to join.  As of this posting, we've got $300 in credit.  Once the $300 is gone, everything gets split equally amongst all, no matter how much or how little of said $300 you use up.  (Note: I got stuck with multiple $100 plus tabs last year; no way in hell I'm doing that again.)

The higher powers above and below willing, The Bus leaves at 10am.  Bloody Mary bar at 10:30 outside said Bus; food and beer orders begin at 11am in the back corner closest to No Other Pub, with kickoff at noon.

McFadden's is really a fun place to watch a game.  Feel free to come out and join in.

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Disreputable Mexican Food Truck Update:

I got a letter in the mail this week from a new local Dodge / Jeep / Chrysler dealer, offering me XX,XXX amount in guaranteed pre-approval, if I'll just trade in my Wrangler and buy a new vehicle from them.

Which led me to believe three things -- none or all of which may be true:

1. The Jeep Wrangler has to be amongst the most popular of vehicles available on the market.

2. If said Jeep Wrangler is less than four years old, has less than 50,000 miles on it, and you owe less than it's worth?  It's one hell of a fluid asset! 

And ...

3. Purchasing said Jeep Wrangler ten months ago?  Might be the single smartest decision I've ever made in my life that didn't involve passing on going home with a chick from The Eclipse.

I mean seriously, I am pre-approved for $39,000 from the good folks at Max Dodge / Jeep / Chrysler (who apparently have multiple metro locations!) for whatever I want to buy, provided I trade in my Jeep.  

OK, first of all, the only way I'm trading said Jeep in, is for a four door rather than a two door, and secondly, why the f*ck would I trade in my Jeep to a dealer stupid enough to give me $39k no questions asked?  I mean, ask any of my family or friends if they'd blindly spot me $39k, and I can guarantee you the answer is not just "no", but there's a naughty word in front of said "no", and deservedly so.

I think I'll keep New Tito.

Unless there's one hell of a four door Jeep ready for me, at no more than what I pay now.

(I'm keeping New Tito.)

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Coming tomorrow: the Chiefs Pontification and Prognostication.  Because I'm still not sure how to type up (or hype up) Sunday yet.  That, and I'm ready to start drinking on this fine, about to be stormy, Friday night here in lovely South Waldo.

Until tomorrow please -- stop driving drunk through my part of town.  You (stewie griffin voice) roo-een it, for the rest of us, non-native Waldoans ...

week four tnf pick

Sorry to break this one off from the rest of the pack, but I wanted to get it posted before kickoff.

For tonight's pick ... this game is potentially so huge come December, especially for the Eagles.  If they drop this one, they fall to 1-3 overall, 1-3 in the conference, and will already be losing tiebreakers to the "Shane" Falcons and Packers -- which would be no bueno if Dallas keeps running away with the NFC "L"East, and relegates Philly to a wild card team.

Furthermore, the Eagles next five headed into the bye?  The Jets at home, roadies at Minnesota, Buffalo, and Dallas (SNF), then a home matchup with the Bears.  And after the bye, they host the Patriots and Seahawks.  If they lose tonight, and somehow go 4-3 in that stretch upcoming, they'd still be 5-6 entering December, and that's not where you want to be, especially with the Cowboys rematch still on tap that would all but eliminate you.

Conversely, the Packers need this one too, given how good the NFC Norris has looked so far.  The only losses for any NFC Norris squad so far are both to the Packers (the Bears Week One, the Vikings Week Two).  And Green Bay's next five look as brutal as Philly's -- if not even worse.  A long week to prep for a trip to Dallas next Sunday, then host the Lions on a Monday night, before hosting the raiders, and going at the Chiefs (SNF), then at the "Super" Chargers.  The Packers also close with three straight divisional games -- including two straight on the road at the Vikings and Lions.

In my season predictions, I have the winner of this game taking the sixth and final seed in the NFC.  And given I have said sixth and final seed in the NFC Title Game, I clearly believe in the team that I chose to win this game a month ago.

(Gulp).

Sorry, Packers fans.

* at Packers (-3 1/2) 28, Eagles 20.

Rest of the Week Four picks should be up by tomorrow evening.  Let's just say my day at work did not go as planned today.  (Namely, I actually had to work.  Who knew?  Not me, that's for sure ...)

the chiefs pontification and prognostication ...

"Hey Mr. Tambourine man!
Play a song for me!
I'm not sleepy, and there is no place
I'm going to!

Hey Mr. Tambourine man!
Play a song for me!
And in the jingle jangle morning?
I'll come following you!

Take me on a trip,
Upon your magic swirling ship!
All my senses have been stripped!
My toes?  Too numb to step!

Waiting only for my boot heels?
To go wandering.

I'm ready to go anywhere!
I'm ready for to fade,
Into my own parade --
Cast your dancing spell my way!

I promise?
To go under it ...

Hey Mr. Tambourine man!
Play a song for me!
I'm not sleepy, and there is no place
I'm going to!

Hey Mr. Tambourine man!
Play a song for me!
And in the jingle jangle morning?
I'll come following you! ..."

-- "Mr. Tambourine Man" by Bob Dylan.

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Picking The Chiefs This Season.

Straight Up: 3-0-0.
Against the Spread: 3-0-0.
As Upset / Week: 1-0-0.

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It's been five years since I set foot in the city a mile high above sea level.

I am here, the evening before one epic regular season game between the team I love irrationally, and the team I hate irrationally, at the lovely Clarion Denver Central hotel, chosen because (and this is not a joke) it is supposed to be the most 420 friendly hotel in all of Denver proper.

(You'd think I chose it ... but for once?  You'd be completely wrong.)

I can confirm, that if this place ain't the most 420 friendly hotel in Denver proper ... it's gotta be in the top ten.

For starters, they have a 420 Tree outside.  That is not a joke.  They have a 420 Tree, where guests grab a stone and wish their best, uuh, wishes, upon said, uuh, stone, at the base of said tree.

You doubt me?

(image credit: me, via my iPhone 8 something.)

Secondly, the elevators and half the floors reek like it was Stubbs ten years ago * .  I know -- this is a great thing, right?  31 year old me is drooling, literally drooling, over knowing 41 year old me would be spending a couple nights in a hotel that doesn't give a f*ck if you like to light up every now and then for purely recreational use.  (Although in fairness to me, next time you see me, ask to try on my glasses.  My eyesight is abysmal.  I probably could get a legal card, if my fine home state approves the ballot measure in 37 days.

Thirdly, we've got a game to play.

And this one is huge.

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(*: as the one person you will ever know who does not believe in coincidence ... I do not find it ironic in any way, shape or form, that the tenth anniversary of meeting the "those people" fan formerly known on this site as "The Chica" ... is tomorrow, as her "those people" and my Chiefs do battle inside the eighth layer of hell itself.  If anything?  I think it's perfect.)

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In the words of the "Voice of the Chiefs", Mitch Holtgus: "for all intents and purposes", the AFC West can be decided tomorrow night.

If the Chiefs win, they will be two clear of both the "Super" Chargers and those people ... with divisional wins against both, in their home stadiums.

Furthermore, if the Chiefs win, they will not only be the last unbeaten in the AFC, but the next three weeks gives this team an opportunity it is rarely afforded: they can all but end the AFC home field race, before Halloween.

The Chiefs next three after tomorrow night are vs Jaguars / at Patriots / vs Bengals.  Save for Miami, those are your three AFC teams with the best record other than the Chiefs, that are a viable threat to win 11 games and get a bye.  And Miami ain't a viable threat to win 11 and get a bye; they're just the only one of those four teams, the Chiefs don't control their own destiny against, over the next four weeks.

But before last rites are performed upon the AFC ... the Chiefs have to survive this contest first.

And it might take an exorcism, to pull this one off.

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Two things have surprised me here in denver so far:

(a) how many Chiefs fans are here, and
(b) how confident those people's fans are, that we will win.

(a) is awesome.

(b) terrifies me.

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Last year, in the Monday Nighter at Arrowhead, a lot of the same sentiment reigned.  Namely, "it cannot possibly be this obvious and this easy, right?"

I feel the same way tonight, about thirty minutes before I pass out and get a solid herbal-induced ten hours of sleep.

It cannot possibly be this obvious.

And there's no way, it can possibly be this easy.

Or can it?

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When the news came on here after the 49ers / Chargers game was over, the lead story was the Rockies forcing a one game "winner gets a bye / loser's going to Miller Park (probably)" play-in game tomorrow, at 2pm Mountain Time.  (Note: thank God that game is at Chavez Ravine; I cannot imagine what a nightmare tomorrow would be, if the game was across the freeway at Coors Field.)

This is gonna be one fun sports day out here, peoples and peepettes.  The forecast isn't half shabby (81 and partly cloudy at kickoff; 30% chance rain during the game).  The Rockies go at 2; their game should be going final as we're walking into Arrowhead West.

Given the epic games that went down today (Bengals / Falcons; Browns / raiders; Eagles / Titans; Texans / Colts ** ), why not stage one more?

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(**: for the record, I would have punted and taken the tie ... but I totally get why the Colts went for it.)

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I think this is going to be a high-scoring contest, that resembles the second half and overtime of the epic game two years ago on Thanksgiving Weekend.

I think both teams are going to give up 30 plus.  I predict we will see fewer than 5 combined punts, and I predict we will see fewer than 3 combined turnovers.

I also predict the team with the ball last, will win it.

* Chiefs (-3 1/2) 42, at those people 34.

If you're in this (hellhole) of a metropolitan community, we're tailgating in Lot M tomorrow.  I'm sitting in Section 117, Row 37.  Feel free to swing by. 

And wherever y'all are tomorrow, Arrowhead Nation? 

Be loud.

I'll be doing my part, inside the eighth layer of hell itself.  Just do yours as well ...

week four non-chiefs picks

Note: due to work and volunteer obligations, as well as travel plans for Monday night's Chiefs / those people game at fake mile high, the picks posts are gonna be light this week. 

Chiefs / those people pick and commentary coming separately, (possibly) Friday night or (probably) Saturday morning.

Also, I'm still working on the recap of the 49ers / Chiefs game.  It's ... look it.  There were six minutes on Sunday, from 11:46 to 11:52am, that hit me so hard emotionally that I have literally spent pushing four hours and counting staring at a blank screen.  I have no idea how to describe what hearing three words, three freaking words I've never even thought about before, I have no idea to describe just how hard those words hit me emotionally on Sunday. 

(Also, how does this hot-as-hell 41 year old dude describe how those three words made him cry like he's never cried over a moment in sports before?  I mean, I bawled like a newborn baby when Mario hit the three ten years ago * .  My reaction to that shot looks like a kid in a sandbox, compared to my reaction to Mr. Mahomes' introduction on Sunday.)

I hope to get that done by Sunday night; I've got a ten hour ride to work on it on Sunday if need be.

Below are the non-Chiefs picks.

(*: for the record, my reaction was to fall off the couch, begin immediately pounding the floor, all while scream crying "yes!" for the next five minutes.  Multiple people can confirm this.  My response to hearing "and at quarterback" on Sunday, made that look like amateur hour.)

Last Week SU: 7-9-0.
Season to Date SU: 27-19-2.

Last Week ATS: 7-9-0.
Season to Date ATS: 27-20-1.

Last Week Upset / Week: I got what I wanted.
Season to Date Upset / Week: 2-1-0 SU, 1-1-1 ATS.
This Week Upset / Week: Lions (+3) over Cowboys.

The Non-Chiefs Picks:

* at Rams (-7) 31, Vikings 14.
* at "Shane" Falcons (-5) 34, Bengals 27.
* Dolphins (+6 1/2) 24, at Patriots 13.
* Texans (+1 1/2) 30, at Colts 20.  "Empty Nest Game O' The Week" honors.
* at Packers 24, Bills (+10) 16.
* Lions (+3) 31, at Cowboys 20.
* at Titans (+4) 24, Eagles 14.
* at Jaguars 16, Jets (+7 1/2) 13.
* at Bears (-3) 24, Bucs 20.
* Seahawks (-3) 27, at "Super" Cardinals 13.  "Good Times Game O' The Week" honors.
* at raiders (-3) 31, Browns 24.  "Gordon Shumway Game O' The Week" honors.
* at "Super" Chargers 20, 49ers (+11) 17.
* Saints (-3 1/2) 55, at Giants 2.
* at Steelers (-3) 13, Ravens 6.

week four: damn right ...

“Hey y’all?

What’s goin’ on?

Been waitin’ on this?

All day long!

When you’re up for anything

From A to Z?

You don’t need

No Plan B!

Go pop the cord --

Go tap the keg!

Go get some red (skin)

In your neck!

This is one of them nights?

You just can’t miss!

And it goes a lil’ something,

A lil’ something like this …

Come on now everybody!

Whether you’re in a bar, or a club!

Or just kickin’ it (Arrowhead) style --

VIP in the back of (The Bus)!

Hey y’all!

When the girls walk by?

We be like

Hey y’all!

If we get it right,

They be like hey y’all!

Wanna rock with us tonight?

Hey y’all?  DAMN right!!! …”

-- “Hey Y’all” by Cole Swindell.

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Last Week SU: 11-5-0 (68.75%).

Season to Date SU: 34-13-0 (70.83%).

Last Week ATS: 11-5-0 (68.75%).

Season to Date ATS: 32-14-1 (68.09%).

Last Week “Screw You Pete King” Upset / Week: needless to say, I am fuming mad.

Season to Date “Screw You Pete King” Upset / Week: 2-1-0 both SU and ATS.

This Week’s “Screw You Pete King” Upset / Week: Eagles (+1) over Chargers.

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The Non-Jets, Non-Chiefs Predictions:

My pick for the Thursday nighter was at Packers (-7) 34, Bears 14.  You betting against Aaron Rodgers in prime time at home?  I’m not.  Also, “ALF Game O’ The Week”.

* Saints (-2 ½) 31, Dolphins 21 (Game in London).  The NFL sent Ed Hochuli to ref this one.  In a national television slot (albeit at 8:30am CT).  Odds this one gets over before the noon games kick off are slim and none, and none is a twelve point favorite.

* at “Shane” Falcons 24, Bills (+9 ½) 21.  This is a ridiculous line.  Absolutely ridiculous.  Atlanta should be 1-2 right now, if we’re being honest with each other.  And I say that as someone who picked the “Shane” Falcons to win the Super Bowl.

* at Ravens (+2 ½) 19, Steelers 17.  I have no idea how.  I just know I am psyched to watch this one.  (Or at least as much of it as I can.)  Also, Arrowhead Nation -- we need one of these two teams to tank in October and (especially) November.  The rematch is the current Sunday Nighter in Week Fourteen.  What would you rather watch at 7:25pm on Sunday, December 10th -- Ravens at Steelers … or raiders at Chiefs (currently slated for noon.  FOX has the National Window, so it’s noon or prime time for what could decide home field advantage throughout the playoffs.)

* at Browns (+3) 2, Bengals 0.  Just when you think things in the NFL cannot get any uglier, Browns / Bengals everyone!!!!!  Also, “Good Times Game O’ The Week”.  And probably the year.  Unless the rematch is worse.

* at Cowboys 31, Rams (+7) 28.  Field goal as time expires.  The Rams are feisty.  They’re gonna stun someone in the next few weeks.

* Lions (+2) 51, at Vikings 14.

I mean, are you kidding me?

Are you f*cking kidding me?

If that is not amongst the ten worst calls in NFL history, I defy you to find ten worse.  Let’s walk through this semi-soberly and semi-coherently.  (But never semi-sanely; don’t give me that much credit.)

* at Texans (PK) 31, Titans 20.  You can’t claim the third game of a rookie QB’s career is the “defining moment” of said career.  (Well, unless you’re Ryan Leaf.)  But what a golden opportunity Deshaun Watson has in front of him -- three straight at home, including next week with the eyes of the nation upon him against the Red and Gold.  They’re all very winnable, heading into the Texans’ bye.  I was higher on Houston than most entering this season.  I’ve seen nothing so far to doubt my optimism.  (And fear for next Sunday night.)

* at Patriots 30, Panthers (+10 ½) 20.  Thanks for the half point, Danny Sheridan!  (Note: as always, all odds pulled from USA Today.)

* at “Super” Cardinals 16, 49ers (+7 ½) 10.  “Webster Game O’ The Week”.  Get ready folks -- we’re now three god-awful sitcom designations in … the Sunday nighter is atrocious (and unflexible) … the Jets game is the second worst one on the board this year for Gang Green … and … dear God, we might go six deep this week.  This isn’t looking good.  This is NOT looking good.  I might have to dig into “Silver Spoons” territory if we’re not careful here.

* Eagles (+1) 34, at “Super” Chargers 20.  Wrong team is favored, and the line is off by at least a field goal.  (Pause).  Not that I gamble.

* at those people (-2 ½) 28, raiders 24.  I know I have to haul out this PSA twice a year, but for those of you who are new, here goes.  If terrorists strike fake mile high as this game is occurring, it is NOT a national tragedy.  Rather, it is cause for a national celebration.  Those heartless cruel killers would be doing football, ‘Murica, and the world an honor, by blowing these two squads (and their fans in attendance) into … well, where they’ll already be at, the eighth layer of hell itself.  I mean, picking a rooting interest in this one is damned near impossible.  You just root for mass carnage and season ending injuries.

* at Bucs (-3) 45, Giants 3.  Get ready for your national closeup, Mr. Winston.  (bruce springsteen voice) The Patriots are coming to town!  The Patriots are coming to town!  The Patriots are coming … next Thursday!

* at Seahawks 6, Colts (+14 ½) 3.  For the love of Christ.  Seattle isn’t three scores better than anyone.  Sh*t, they were barely a field goal better than the hapless 49ers.  Also, I’m laying 5:1 odds on Al Michaels openly snoring in the booth by the fourth quarter.  This one is going to be awful.  “Empty Nest Game O’ The Week”.  

The “Klassy” Kevin Keitzman Tweet O’ The Week:

He’s been good this week, so I’ll take a pass.  Plus I still owe you my thoughts on Ol’ Klassy’s opinions of who (stewie griffin voice) roo-eened Nebraska football.  Here’s a hint: as usual, he’s wrong.

The Watching Party Plans:

There are no The Watching Party Plans, as this is a Chiefs home game.

The Tailgating Plans:

The STM Email says gates open at 2:30.  My bet is it will be closer to 1:30, given that (a) it’s a prime time home game, (b) it’s supposed to be pushing 85 and sunny on Monday, and (c) this is what God gave us PTO for, right?

The Bus is planning to depart by 1pm if you’re riding out.  I should be able to duck out of the (new) office by 11am * ; I would like to think two hours is more than enough time to get from 31st and Broadway to Raytown, and change into something less formal than “current employer’s dress code”.

Last time I checked, the primary menu is just burgers and brats and dogs, plus assorted side dishes and desserts that get brought.  Ron and Ryan and Tyler and their crew is bringing Gates last time I heard.  I am making a jalapeno side of some kind (allegedly); I’m just not sure if I’ll do poppers or try to make the meatballs that had me drooling the other day on Facebook.  (Depends on how soon I get done with family commitments on Sunday; these things will take some prep time.)  As always, there will be plenty of liquid refreshments of an adult nature for your, uuh, refreshment.

And as always, anyone and everyone is welcome to attend.  We’re always in the same spot: the grassy knoll north of the G30 sign.  If you miss out?  Look in the mirror, because you’re the only reason you wouldn’t be there.  

Should be one epic last day of summer.  Hope y’all get out to enjoy it!

(*: if I seem ridiculously b*tchy Monday, there’s a damned good reason why.  I am allowed two -- and only two -- PTO days my first ninety days on the job.  (Or through December 5th.)  I am using one to get back from Dallas, and my boss has been beyond generous in violating HR rules granting an exemption to allow me to use two more (as of now) to go to Sioux Falls in two weeks … so I get three.  The tradeoff is that I have to “make up the time” from both Monday Nighters.  So I’m heading in at 7am Monday (a solid hour earlier than usual) … and staying late Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday, to make up the time.  You’re welcome?)

The 2 Legit 2 Colquitt League Best Guesses:

Last Week SU: 3-3-0.

Season to Date SU: 7-11-0.

* team tito (me) over Focus and Finish (Chane).  Thank you Aaron Rodgers.

* Mike Ditka in your mom (Vince) over Banana Hammocks (Will).  (fidelity ad guy voice) why not?

* GO BIG RED (Gordon / Garrett) over JYD’s Huskerbugeaters (Ross).  The five time champs drop to 0-4?  The five time champs drop to 0-4.

* Jasson’s Occiffers (Jasson) over B*tch Kitties (Cooksey).  Just because.

* Salty Bananas (bts) over Angry Beavers (“The Voice of Reason”).  Hey, the next time an “angry beaver” overcomes a “salty banana” pounding against the ceiling of the ConDome or The Dam, you let me know.

* Patrick is Mahomes (“Reputable National Sports Columnist”) over Orinoco Flow N My Pantalones (Potter).  Which leads into this week’s sad, tragic development …

“Disreputable Mexican Food Truck” Update O’ The Week:

It moved!  Sadly, this fine city I call home has decided to relay (relie?  Not sure what the correct word here is) a bunch of cable and electrical wires underneath Broadway over the next couple weeks, so the entire northbound side of Broadway is missing a lane between Linwood and 31st.  Meaning “Disreputable Mexican Food Truck” has to move for a couple weeks.  Hopefully it will be back -- it’s a solid four block walk to Gates (the closest reputable dining facility to “current employer”) … and I’m sorry, but you cannot eat a Beef on Bun and Fries without a frosty cold beer.  It just cannot be done.  I refuse to try.

The Jets Best Guess:

You sitting down, football fans?  There’s a damned good realistic probability the Jets will be 3-2 in two weeks.  And if they spring the upset over the Patriots come October 15 at the Fake Meadowlands (which they usually do)?  Look out.

Also, this is your “Designing Women Game O’ The Week”.

* at Jets (+3) 16, Jaguars 10.

The Chiefs Prognostication:

One year ago (jimmy buffett voice) “Come Monday” … the Chiefs suffered arguably the single most humiliating, indefensible defeat of the “Fat” Andy Reid era, falling 14-43 to the Steelers on a Sunday night in a game that wasn’t even remotely as close as the score indicates.

I could focus on how far this team has come in a year -- they’ve closed the gap by 27!, based on the playoff game! -- but instead, I choose to focus on the last time the Chiefs hosted a Monday Night game.

Ironically, the same damned week -- Week Four … 2014.

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The truly sad thing is, so few people actually remember that Monday Nighter three years ago.  Hell, I couldn’t manage to recap it -- and that’s pathetic, to be honest.  Sh*t, I could barely manage to care about it.  

Because as much as that game was enjoyable (a 41-14 Chiefs “y’all can bend over and take the business” beating over the Patriots) … was anyone there that night truly actually focused on THAT game, to occur over a twenty four hour period at the Truman Sports Complex?

I know I wasn’t.  As I noted on Facebook leaving Terrorhead after a win for the ages: "tomorrow trumps today".

And damn, did it ever.

Who would have thunk, that a Monday Night Football blowout would serve as the jumping off point … for what (until this season) will be remembered as one of the greatest runs in this metropolitan area’s sports history?

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It’s been three years, and I still remember every damned thing about that Wild Card win.  I still wonder how Brooks is now -- I’m guessing he’d be second grade?  Does he still love Salvy as he did that night?  How the f*ck did I not consume a single drop of alcohol during that entire contest?  (Note: that one stuns me most of all -- it’s not like money was an issue; September 30 was / is a payday.  Not one drop during that game.  Circle me apoplectic Joe Bugle style, Bert.  Circle me apoplectic.)

Yet there are so many details about that Monday Nighter I forget.  Apparently Travis Kelce emerged that night as a force to be reckoned with.  Apparently the Chiefs curb-stomped the soon-to-be Super Bowl champs for sixty straight minutes stretched into three hours.  Apparently Bill Belichick was so p*ssed his only response to the game was “On To Cincinnati”.

So let me ask the Captain Oats in the room.

What if what we are witnessing … is the catalyst, to the single greatest moment, in this epic area’s history …

What if what we are witnessing at this point, is building up to a parade that will put November 3, 2015 to shame ...

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What if Monday night, three years later, is the kickoff to yet another celebratory parade down Grand?  What if Monday night launches a season we’ve literally waited a lifetime for, just as (unknowingly) Monday night three years ago did?

I hope each and every one of you reading this will be there Monday night.  I hope you experience what is going to happen.  I hope you get to state to your kids, your grandkids, your wife, your girlfriend, your ho on the side, some random stranger you meet at the bus stop, that you were there, the night America bought hook, line, and sinker into what the Chiefs are selling.

Because what they’re selling?  Is real.

And it’s about to become spectacular.

* at Chiefs (-4) 45, Redskins 13.