week 12 non turkey day picks

Season to Date SU (Including Thursday): 96-66-2.

Season to Date ATS (Including Thursday): 77-79-8.

Season to Date Upset / Week (Including Thursday): 2-9-0 SU; 5-5-1 ATS.

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The Week 12 Picks.

* at Bills (+3) 17, Jaguars 13.  "Good Times Game O' The Week" honors.

* at Ravens 24, raiders (+10 1/2) 17.  "ALF Game O' The Week" honors.

* 49ers (+2 1/2) 31, at Bucs 28 (OT).  "Empty Nest Game O' The Week" honors.

* at Eagles (-5) 34, Giants 10.

* Browns (+2 1/2) 38, at Bengals 20.  "Designing Women Game O' The Week" honors.

* Patriots 28, at Jets (+10) 24.

* Seahawks (+3 1/2) 31, at Panthers 24.

* at "Super" Chargers (-13) 41, "Super" Cardinals 13.  Oh sweet Jesus.  For the first time in 2018, we're here.

(gulp).

(big gulp).

(super big gulp).

"This is it.

(This is it!)

This is life, the one you get,

So go and have a ball!

This is it!

(This is it!)

Straight ahead, and rest assured,

You can't be sure at all!

So while you're here?  Enjoy the view!

Keep on doing what you do!

Just hold on tight, we'll muddle through

One day at a time!

So up on your feet!  (Up on your feet!)

Somewhere there's music playing!

Don't you worry none --

We'll just take life as it comes ...

One Day at a Time! 

(One Day at a Time!)

One Day at at Time!

(One Day at a Time!)

One Day at a Time!!!!!!!!!! ....."

(Note: I actually love the remake on Netflix.  I just despise the original, previously designated as the worst television show of all time by, well, me.)

* Dolphins (+7 1/2) 28, at Colts 20.

* at those people (+3) 31, Steelers 30.

* at Vikings (-3) 41, Packers 30.

* at Texans (-6) 54, Titans 13.

the turkey day picks

Just to get on the record. 

Rest of Week 12 picks (and other regular column things) coming by early morning Sunday.

* at Lions (+3 1/2) 31, Bears 24.  Don't count the Lions out yet.  Next week (vs Rams) is their toughest game left.  Their last four after that: at "Super" Cardinals / vs Bills / vs Vikings / at Packers.  And we have seen them rally from 3-6 to a wild card berth before (1995). 

* at Cowboys 24, Redskins (+7 1/2) 21.  Way closer than you think it will be.

* at Saints 31, "Shane" Falcons (+13) 24.  This line is more drunk than my mom and I combined will be come kickoff.  And we started almost 90 minutes ago on the mimosas.  It is patently absurd and utterly ridiculous.  This is the "Shane" Falcons season.  They'll fight to the bitter, kitchen sink losing end.

To you and yours, all the best this turkey day. 

week eleven: the rivalry that never was ...

"How can we be lovers
If we can't be friends?
How can we start over
If the fighting never ends?

How can we make love
If we can't make amends?
How can we be lovers
If we can't be, can't be friends?

Look at us now --
Look at us baby.
Still trying to work it out --
Never get it right.

We must be fools --
We must be crazy!
Whoa, oh!  There's no communication!
Whoa, oh!  It's a no win situation!

How can we be lovers
If we can't be friends?
How can we start over
When the fighting never ends?

How can we make love
If we can't make amends?
How can we be lovers
If we can't be, can't be friends? ..."

-- "How Can We Be Lovers" by Michael Bolton.

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Last Week SU: 8-6-0.
Season to Date SU: 89-57-2.

Last Week ATS: 5-8-1.
Season to Date ATS: 69-71-8.

Last Week Upset / Week: yikes.
Season to Date Upset / Week: 2-8-0 SU / 4-5-1 ATS.
This Week Upset / Week: Jaguars (+5 1/2) over Steelers.

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The Non-Chiefs Picks.

* Packers (+2 1/2) 31, at Seahawks 24.  Mike McCarthy should have been fired the moment he opted to punt.

* Bengals (+4) 23, at Ravens 21.  Sneaky good matchup that might be an elimination game for all intents and purposes, especially if Baltimore loses.

* at Jaguars (+5 1/2) 24, Steelers 23.  The Jaguars are about to go on a 1995 Detroit Lions run to snag the six seed.  Or so says me.

* at Giants (+1) 3, Bucs 0.  "Empty Nest Game O' The Week" honors.

* Panthers (-4) 27, at Lions 20.  "ALF Game O' The Week" honors.

* at Colts (-2) 34, Titans 31 (OT).  On paper, this might be THE game, that decides the six seed in the AFC.  (The "Super" Chargers are all but a lock for the five.)  In the last two weeks, the Titans have blown out Dallas in Dallas, and blown out New England in Nashville.  If they win this game?  Well, I predicted way back when they'd be the one seed for a reason.  On the other hand, if Indy wins to get back to .500?  With that schedule left?  They might be the second team in four years to go from 1-5 to the playoffs (along with your 2015 Chiefs). 

This isn't quite "best game of the year" status worthy.  Sh*t, at best, it's the third biggest game of the week.  But this does deserve some designation to note how great this game is on paper.  So, let's go with "Lost Game O' The Week" honors.  Because I have no idea how we got here, there's possibly a polar bear involved, and a Colts / Titans matchup six weeks before the playoffs start deciding the six seed, somehow makes sense.

* Cowboys (+3) 31, at "Shane" Falcons 21.  This is a "loser retires" match the WWF used to stage so awesomely.

* at Redskins (+3) 24, Texans 17.  I ask this with all due sincerity: has any matchup of 6-3 divisional leaders ever attracted LESS attention, than this week's Texans / Skins match?  More to the point, if it's Houston at Kansas City in the Divisional Round, how terrified are you, Chiefs fans?  Because I'm scared sh*tless at that prospect.

* those people (+7) 27, at "Super" Chargers 17.  I despise those rare days I have to root for those people.  Sunday?  We all root for those people.  Because if this upset happens, the Chiefs are two clear of everyone entering Monday night, in the AFC.

* at "Super" Cardinals (-4) 16, raiders 6.  "Good Times Game O' The Week" honors ... if not o' the year.

* Eagles (+9) 34, at Saints 31 (OT).  The defending champs have their backs to the wall.  They'll find a way to somehow, some way, (rascal flatts voice) stand.  Jesus, this game is going to be great.  I love nothing more when it comes to sports (save for my side winning) than watching a proven veteran team with its' season on the line, fight with everything left in them, to save said season.

* at Bears (+3) 24, Vikings 20.  I texted my cousin Juli (she and her husband are Bears season ticket holders) about this one.  Her response: "I've waited a f*cking decade for this day!  We're gonna kick their asses!"  Nice to see everyone in my family not only knows how to employ a generous f-bomb when it's called for ... but knows professional football misery.

The "Klassy" Kevin Keitzman Tweet O' The Week.

He's being too quiet.  It's like the calm before the monsoon.  You know there's an explosion of insanity and/or indefensibility coming.  I'll just keep patiently waiting for it I guess.

The Tailgating Plans.

There are no The Tailgating Plans, as this is not a game I will be in attendance for.  And for once, I'm glad about that.  Mexico was the game my brother and I circled earlier this year for a road trip.  It never came through.  Thankfully.  Because I don't have $1,000 to eat at this point.  #carshopping

The Watching Party Plans.

There are The Watching Party Plans.  We will be at McFadden's down in Power and Light.  We have two tables reserved, and a $200 tab to spend through.  Barring something unforeseen, I plan to duck out at halftime, as (a) I have to work Tuesday morning, and (b) I have no desire to get shot sitting at the 59th or Gregory stoplights on 71 heading home.  (I kid, I kid.  I think.)

I plan to get there a little after 5, 5:15 to get started.  Feel free to join us.  We'll probably be in the lower bar area closest to the exit out into P&L, where we were for the Browns game.

The Flashback.

Here is the recap from the 2014 Chiefs / Rams game.

Here are my thoughts from the 2006 Chiefs / Rams game.  (Warning: NSFW.)

Sadly, I have nothing from 1997, 2000, 2002, or 2010, to post as a flashback recap.

But having noted that, the cool thing to realize in this "rivalry that never was"?

The Chiefs went 6-0 against the Rams in the regular season, when they resided across the state.

Six.  And.  Oh.

Considering I do numbers for a living, I can swear to you -- that's pretty damned good.

Disreputable Mexican Food Truck Update.

We're now in what, Week Five of the water and sewer line replacement on 84th Street ... and yeah, they ain't getting this bastardo done by Christmas, let alone Thanksgiving:

(The view towards Madison, where I live.  Image credit: me, via my iPhone 8 something.)

(The view towards Wornall is somehow worse.  Image credit: me, via my iPhone 8 something.)

I've said it before, and I'll say it again ... hit it!

"Good Times!  Anytime you need a payment!
Good Times!  Anytime you need a friend!
Good Times!  Anytime you're out from under!
Not gettin' hassled!  Not gettin' hustled!

Keepin' yo head above water!
Makin' a wave when you can!

Temporary layoffs?  Good Times!
Easy credit ripoffs?  Good Times!
Scratchin' and survivin'?  Good Times!
Hangin' in a chow line?  Good Times!

Ain't we lucky we got 'em?
(Na Na Na Na Na!) Good TImes!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!"

And you're godd*mned right, that's former Kansas City Chief John Amos, starring as family patriarch James Evans.

The Chiefs Pontification and Prognostication.

For the second week in a row, the Chiefs will face on of the two smartest franchises in professional sports.  Especially in the NFL.

Because just like the "Super" Cardinals in 1988, the Rams had the sense two years ago to bid goodbye to our b*tch to the east, hope of crap rap like Chingy and JKWON, home to the worst beer ever brewed anywhere (Bud Light), home to the most arrogant, stuck up fans in all of professional sports (the baseball Cardinals).

Home to the city that gave us Dred Scott, which not only pushed the timeline of the impending Civil War up by four decades, it was a ruling so hideous that the President allegedly had to bribe a judge into changing his descent, to "present" a more unified ruling to the public.  (Chief Justice Taney ruled in 1857 that not only was freed black Dred Scott not free, but also not a citizen, not eligible to become a citizen, and that in fact he retained fewer rights as a person, than a dresser did as a piece of furniture ... because that is literally was Taney ruled Scott and every black person was: a piece of furniture.  Don't tell me we're a more racist society today, than 150 years ago, Democrats running on racial issues everywhere.  It's not even close.  Nobody views you as a plush pillow the dog sleeps on anymore.)

Yes, for the second week in a row, the Chiefs play a team that fled St. Louis to play elsewhere.

And somehow, as much as I love the "aw, St. Louis got screwed, isn't this sweet!" aspect of it ... damn, I hate the loss, of a potential hated rival.

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I've long advocated the NFL should expand the schedule by one game, to seventeen, and make that seventeenth game every season, a cross-conference rivalry game.  (Which currently occur every fourth year; in the year(s) that matchup would already occur, just schedule the game against a team not on the schedule.)

Think about it.  Giants / Jets every year.  49ers / raiders.  "Super" Chargers / Rams.  Cowboys / Texans.  Dolphins / Bucs or Jags / Bucs.  those people / "Super" Cardinals.  "Shane" Falcons / Titans or Panthers / Titans.  Redskins / Ravens.  Eagles / Steelers.  Bears / Colts.

Most of these matchups already occur in the preseason every year.  I've always felt they'd be much better as a regular season game.

And man, how fun could Rams / Chiefs be these next five, six, seven years folks, if they met every regular season ... instead of just twice (Monday night and sometime in 2022) guaranteed, in a game that counts within those seven years?

Because of the Rams move, our closest NFC rival would be who, Chicago?  Minnesota?  I mean, I'm going to Chicago next year when the Chiefs play there (the Vikings and Packers come here; we go to Chicago and Detroit), and it's a fun game ... but it isn't the same as beating a cross-state rival.  Minnesota?  Been there, done that a few times ... and again, there's just no spark there, no hatred there.

Anyways, there's my $0.02 on NFL scheduling.  Not that it's worth even that.

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Now for my other rant of the week, and that is Patrick Mahomes "Of The Chiefs" desire to get a Whataburger here in Kansas City.

If you have never had Whataburger?  Count your damned blessings.  I have never understood the love for that place.  And spare me the "well, you probably only ate it once, at a sh*tty location".  I ate it many times, across many locations, in my four years living in the Metroplex.  And every single burger I ever had there was awful.  (To be fair, the chicken sandwich is passable, and they do make great milkshakes.)

I don't often disagree with Sir Patrick ... but he's dead wrong on this one.

And if you doubt me?  Those of you reading this, probably knew me twenty years ago when I moved up here to KC.  I sold you on how great Jason's Deli was.  Was I right, or was I right?  I swore to you Shiner Bock original is the best beer you'll ever have.  Was I right, or was I at least in the ballpark of right?  I swore to you Waffle House was the best place for a 3am recovery after a night at the bar.  Was I right, or was I right?

Those three staples of Texas living have made their way to KC in the 20 years since I moved back here.  I don't hear nobody complaining about them.  And with good reason -- they're all good to great.

Whataburger?  Not my cup of tea, or type of burger.

(Ditto Braum's.  I know Dairy Queen, Braum's.  You are no Dairy Queen.)

But hey.  If Whataburger wants to buy up the abandoned Church's Chicken in the Price Chopper parking lot there at 85th and Wornall?

I'd welcome them to the neighborhood.

(But you'd still go across the street to Walsh's for your burger, right?)

Hell yes I would.

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As for Monday night, I guess I'm in a small minority, in that I don't think this is going to be a replay of the Patriots Sunday nighter a month ago, where nobody could stop anybody and the last team with the ball was guaranteed to win.

I think this is gonna play out a little closer to another prime time matchup the Chiefs have already played, the game at those people.  The defenses will have a say in the outcome.

And I think the better defense, holds in the red zone, for the win as the clock runs out.

* Chiefs (+2 1/2) 31, at Rams 24.

Enjoy this one, Chiefs fans.  God knows I'm going to.

And in case I don't post again before Thursday (a highly likely outcome), Happy Turkey Day to you and yours.  I hope your holiday will be as enjoyable as mine is shaping up to be.  The "Family" Thanksgiving on Wednesday?  Check.  The family Thanksgiving on Thursday?  Check.  Bob Seger's final performance in Kansas City on Saturday?  Check.

With Friday and Sunday to sort themselves out.

(Pause).  What?  (Pause).  Of course I'm eating all the pumpkin pie!  You'd be surprised how well that goes down with a straight scotch!  #thingsyoulearnfromyourdad

week seven: primetime at terrorhead ...

"I know it's late.
I know you're weary.
I know your plans?
Don't include me.

Still here we are.
Both of us lonely.
Longing for shelter?
From all that we see.

Why should we worry?
No one will care, girl!
Look at the stars?
So far away!

We've got tonight.
Who needs tomorrow?
We've got tonight, babe --
Why don't you stay?

Deep in my soul?
I've been so lonely.
All of my hopes?
Fading away.

I've longed for love,
Like everyone else does.
I know I'll keep searching,
Even after today.

So there it is girl --
I've seen it all now!
And here we are babe --
What do you say?

We've got tonight.
Who needs tomorrow?
We've got tonight, babe --
Why don't you stay? ..."

-- "We've Got Tonight" by Bob Seger and the Silver Bullet Band.

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Last Week SU: 10-5-0.
Season to Date SU: 57-34-2.

Last Week ATS: 7-7-1.
Season to Date ATS: 47-40-6.

Last Week Upset / Week: it covered.
Season to Date Upset / Week: 2-4-0 SU; 3-2-1 ATS.
This Week Upset / Week: Bears (+3) over Patriots.

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The Non-Jets, Non-those people, Non-Chiefs Picks.

* Titans (+6 1/2) 31, vs "Super" Chargers 27 (Game in London).
* at Bears (+3) 27, Patriots 13.
* Browns (+3) 28, at Bucs 24.  "Good Times Game O' The Week" honors.
* Lions (NL) 34, at Dolphins 24.
* at Eagles (-5) 45, Panthers 13.
* at Colts 20, Bills (+7 1/2) 14.  "Gordon Shumway Game O' The Week" honors.
* Texans (+5 1/2) 30, at Jaguars 27 (OT).
* Saints (+2 1/2) 28, at Ravens 13.
* at Redskins (-1 1/2) 38, Cowboys 31.
* Rams 27, at 49ers (+9 1/2) 21.
* at "Shane" Falcons (-5 1/2) 52, Giants 0.  "Empty Nest Game O' The Week" honors.

The "Klassy" Kevin Keitzman Tweet O' The Week.

Wow.  Where to begin ... other than noting, this is an exercise in futility.  As "The Voice of Reason" would note: "you cannot reason with people, that don't have any reason".

(Which begs the obvious: how the f*ck do he and I, uuh, reason with each other?  We all know I ain't all here.)

Anyways ...

Starting at the bottom (meaning the bottom tweet is 1, then the next to bottom is 2, and so on ...):

1. He's right.  This is the rarest of sporting events, that not only meets -- and exceeds -- the hype, but knocks said hype to (reggie jackson voice) second f*cking base.

2. He's somewhat right.  Yes, the Chiefs SHOULD have let the Patriots score a touchdown on that final drive.  But what Ol' Kev, The Klassy One, Ol' "K"KK is conveniently ignoring?

Is that the Patriots are coached well enough, to know NOT to score in that situation.  If we give them the obvious score?  They'll stop at the one, fall down, bleed the clock, and end the game exactly as it, uuh, ended: via a field goal for the margin of victory.

3. See 2.

4. We're coming back to this later on.

5. OK, enough is enough, Ol' Klassy.

The Eagles scored the game winning touchdown with 2:25 to play in the Super Bowl (the toss to Zach Ertz).  After going (and failing) for two, the Eagles led 38-33.  With 2:25 to play.  And a timeout still in hand, plus the two minute warning.

The Eagles essentially put the Patriots in the same godd*mned place the Chiefs did on Sunday night!  I will grant you it is slightly different; the Eagles had a lead whereas the Chiefs were tied.  But the situation is the same: a Patriots team, needing to score, inside of three minutes, is given the ball back after the opposition scores.

But in reality?  There is no difference!  Yet because the Eagles held (in fact, they held twice -- forcing a fumble and tacking on a field goal, then stopping the Patriots as time expired to win by eight), and the Chiefs didn't, that somehow makes the same f*cking strategory wrong for the Chiefs and right for the Eagles?  This is insanity!  It's the same damned plan, "K"KK!  If you're going to question the strategory, fine, go for it, "Konfident" Kev.

(For the record, I'd have done what the Chiefs did, for one reason: you're not guaranteed to score.  If it was 40-40 when Tyreek breaks it, maybe go down at the one and know you're getting three and the lead no matter what ... but trailing 33-40, you HAVE to take the points.  Period.)

6. I do have to concede this: if anyone in our fine metropolitan area knows about "going for two", it's all around family man "Kon Artist" Keitz.  #youmaypullyourpantsupnow

Again -- we're coming back to 4, before the weekend is over, via a "Tale O' The Tape".  Stay tuned.

The Watching Party Plans.

There are no The Watching Party Plans, as this is a Chiefs game I will be attending in person.

The Tailgating Plans.

The Bus is planning to depart right at noon on Sunday.  I know the STM Email says gates open at 2:30, but come on.  It's going to be 65 and sunny on Sunday.  Those bad boys are opening by 1:30 at the latest.

(Also, as I learned from my "highly placed source speaking on condition of anonymity", the man named "Rufus", a few weeks ago: once you see the gate attendants arrive, it will be 30 minutes or less before the gates open.  I predict we see gate people no later than 1:15pm Sunday.)

The menu is a taco / nacho bar, with some beans, rice, and probably corn as the sides.  (Feel free to contribute if you're joining us.)

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Friday 10/19 5:51am: we have an update!  The menu has changed!  Instead we are doing Bengal Brats via request from a few tailgating friends, plus assorted side dishes and desserts.  Which means (in addition to jello shots), I might as well haul out the jalapeno poppers for Sunday.  So much for the dream of not standing over a grill for a couple hours just once twice this season.  Hopefully this time there's at least one left for me:

(I made 146 of these things for the 49ers game.  They were gone before they even reached the food table.  Image credit: me, via my iPhone 8 something.) 

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Also, rumor has it that the second best maker of jello shots ever is coming out of retirement for this one.  Again, it's just a rumor.  (A rumor extremely dependent upon Amazon's delivery of the serving cups arriving at the Casa de Stevo by tomorrow night as scheduled.)

If you're planning to tailgate with us, spectacular!  Anyone and everyone is welcome!  However, due to the newbies tailgating straight west of us, we ask that you park in the actual Lot G parking across from our tailgating spot (or wherever you'd prefer), to keep as much space opened up as possible for the fun things in life.  Like beer pong.  Definitely beer pong.

See ya Sunday.

The Flashback.

Earlier this week, Arrowhead Pride asked its' followers on Twitter to, uuh, tweet, their favorite prime time game at Arrowhead * .

And there are some incredible, awe inspiring choices to, uuh, choose from.  But in my opinion, there is only one choice that should win, and that is every bleeping second of Monday, October 7, 1991.  If you're under the age of 35, you probably wouldn't understand why.  If you're over the age of 35, you're nodding in agreement with my selection.

Because if you're over the age of 35, you understand just how improbable, just how unimaginable, hosting a Monday Night Football game was.

Because if you're under the age of 35, you cannot possibly comprehend, just how very much imaginable, Monday, October 7, 1991 never happening, was.

Which is why this week's The Flashback is a flashback to thirty years ago, to one of those "what are the f*cking odds" upsets some also-ran always seems to spring in the last four, five, six weeks, over a credible title contender.

On November 13, 1988 (Week Eleven of the 1988 season), the Chiefs sprung one of those upset, over the soon-to-be AFC Champion Cincinnati Bengals, 31-28 at Arrowhead.  The Chiefs entered the game 1-8-1 ** .  They were going nowhere fast.  They had one playoff berth to show for their last eighteen years, and they promptly lost that game by three touchdowns to a team coming in on a five game losing streak.

That bastion of accuracy known as Wikipedia reports that nearly 34,000 fans were in the stands that day.  I can tell you, that as usual, Wikipedia is shown to be a purveyor of "fake news".  I know this, because I was in the stands that day, and there is a better chance of me going to bed sober tonight, than there is of 34,000 fans being inside of Arrowhead that day.

Thankfully, no matter what the attendance that day was, one person definitely was in attendance.  A man by the name of Carl Peterson.  I have no idea what the hell he saw in this franchise on that day.  (Maybe Carl was as hammered as most fans in the stands were.)  But whatever it is he saw, triggered in him the desire to accept the responsibility of once again attempting to rebuild the most poorly run franchise in the sport.

It is not an exaggeration, an understatement, or a bullsh*t proclamation, to note that had the Chiefs not shown something that day against the Bengals, to convince Mr. Peterson to come to Kansas City, that the Chiefs would not be playing here on Sunday night.

Oh, they might be playing, but it wouldn't be at Arrowhead.

That one upset thirty years ago, that led three years later to the greatest party Arrowhead has ever thrown (at least until January), is why we're showing up on Sunday, thirty years later, to face the Bengals.

Because trust me kids: whatever you may think of Carl Peterson?

He's damned near the sole and only reason, you're watching Chiefs football on Sunday night, whether on your television or (hopefully) with me inside of Arrowhead.

Him, and Marty.

Never forget that.

(*: I hate that they limited it to home prime time games.  Because two of my three favorites (Chiefs at Ravens 2004, Chiefs at those people 1994), and three of my top seven (Chiefs at those people 2016), and four of my top ten (Chiefs at raiders 1997), are roadies.  So, to stay true to the rules of this exercise in Twitter nonsense ... in reverse order, here are my ten favorite home prime time games of my life then.  10: Steelers at Chiefs 1997 (Marcus Allen throws the winning TD); 9: "Super" Chargers at Chiefs 2010 (Tuesday Morning Football); 8: Oilers at Chiefs 1995 (for you, the third Amen Corner finish of 1995, for me, the Beatles game); 7: Vikings at Chiefs 1999 (DT's last epic game, against (go figure) Jeff George); 6: "Super" Chargers at Chiefs 1995 (Vanover's OT punt return); 5: those people at Chiefs 2016 (Dontari Poe's TD Pass); 4: Seahawks at Chiefs 2000 (Where Stevo and Friends Meet Ed "Sweet Jesus" Hochuli ... to say nothing of one of the funniest MNF broadcast moments ever ("It Wasn't Me!")); 3: Steelers at Chiefs 2016 Divisional Round (I know it's a loss, but come on -- playoff football in prime time!); 2: "Super" Chargers at Chiefs 2011 (The Phumble); 1: Bills at Chiefs 1991 (for you Civil War buffs like me, this was the Glendale of my Chiefs fandom -- aka "the one moment an impossible dream, actually seemed possible).)

(**: the similarities between the 1988 Chiefs and 2008 Chiefs are frightening, to be honest.)

Stevo's Drink O' The Week.

I had a birthday brunch for my sister in law on Sunday, and any brunch / lunch / dinner / what the hell, we're all here get together in my family means there will be adult beverages involved.

And go figure, the person who it always falls to, to pick up said adult beverages?

Is me.

(In my defense ... I can't cook, so it makes sense.)

This week's libation -- which I am enjoying another bottle of right now -- is Yellow Tail Moscato.  I'm not much of a white wine person usually (unless it's Pinot Grigio), but the Yellow Tail Moscato is not half bad.  Especially when chilled to pushing forty degrees.

Give it a try!

(Note: currently on sale at Harry's (the Missouri side Price Chopper liquor department) for $8.99 for the 1.75ml bottle.  That's a f*cking steal, boys and girls.  A f*cking steal.)

The those people Commentary and Choice.

I loved von miller's quote this week, regarding tonight's old-school 007 slapper fight in the desert, between those people and the Arizona "Super" Cardinals.

"We're going to kick their ass!"

Aw, von.  That's so adorable.

Because no son.  No, you're not.  They're going to whip yours all the way back to your green-friendly city.

* at "Super" Cardinals (+1) 43, those people 13.

The Jets Prediction.

* at Jets (+3) 34, Vikings 20.

"Disreputable" Mexican Food Truck Update.

(stevo exhaling deeply ...)

So, I moved to South Waldo *** almost three years ago now.  (Damn, time flies sometimes.)  My first fall / winter here wasn't too bad.  Last year, we had five -- five! -- freaking water main breaks in the span of about two months, and thanks to the weird ass winter we had, all KCMO Public Works' finest could do was plug the leak, dump a ton of rock into the hole, and wait for spring to repave.  Fine, so be it.  Sh*t happens.

But then came Monday.

When this greeted me, as I headed out of the Price Chopper strip mall for the couple block walk home:

(84th Street, headed west towards (old school collection dude voice) the Kansas side.  Image credit: me, via my iPhone 8 something.)

I mean, are you kidding me?  Smoke thicker than it will be at Terrorhead on Sunday from all the dust one freaking car is kicking up?  An entire side of 84th (the side with homes on it to boot!) completely unusable due to digging the trench?

And as if that isn't fantastic enough?  The hidden jewel of South Waldo is Sunnyside Park.  It is an amazing park.  It almost justifies the ridiculously high rent prices down here.  (Emphasis on "almost".)  Every night, when I go jogging on the trail, you run into flag football teams practicing, baseball and softball teams practicing, 3 on 3 pickup games on the court, a few folks testing out the tennis courts.  In the summer, there's a water play area for the kids.  It's also very dog friendly.

This is what it looks like tonight:

(If you look really, really hard, near the back center of the picture, you can see a baseball team practicing, on the only one of three fields currently open for play.  Image credit: me, via my iPhone 8 something.)

Something tells me, Year Tres down here, ain't gonna be as "water and sewer friendly", as Years Uno and Dos were.  And Year Dos wasn't exactly something to brag about.

(***: I get that it is officially called West Waldo.  Except it's not.  It's South Waldo.)

The Chiefs Pontification and Prognostication.

--------------------

Picking The Chiefs This Season:

Straight Up: 5-1-0.
Against the Spread: 6-0-0.
Upset / Week (When Applicable): 1-1-0 SU; 2-0-0 ATS.

--------------------

I wish I had something jazzy, snazzy, classy, to throw out there for you.

Except I don't.

I've had a long week at work with quarter end, and I don't really get a comedown from that ending on Tuesday; I leave for San Antonio a week from today for a wedding that I am catching a 5:07am flight home on next Sunday to return from, in order to make at least half of tailgating and the entire game against those people.

And in fact, I'm actually contemplating doing something for this post next week, that I haven't done in nine years: recording it live, and broadcasting it to the masses.  (If I could figure out this Periscope thing, I might consider that next Wednesday night or Thursday morning; I don't depart for KCI until noonish next Thursday.)

I honestly don't know what to think about Sunday night.  For starters, this game terrifies me.  This game is the one I've feared will be the Chiefs annual "sh*t the bed at home" contest we stage at least once a year.  (Buffalo last year, Tampa 2016, Chicago 2015, Tennessee 2014, Pick Any One 2012, Miami 2011, oakland 2010 ... you get the point.)

The Chiefs should win this one something like 37-20.  Only we all know they won't.  Either this will be far, far closer than it should be ... or one side gets out 24-0, 27-3, and never looks back.

I guess I'll just make four notes, then make the pick.

1. If you're coming Sunday?  Be loud.  Let Patrick Mahomes "Of The Chiefs" know beyond the shadow of even the slightest of doubt, why prime time at Arrowhead, turns that place into Terrorhead.

2. This is the spot last season, that I believe derailed the season for good (even if we didn't know it yet).  5-0, facing a Super Bowl threat that we fought to a draw for 59 plus minutes, only to lose ... and then lose in prime time, on a short week, to a viable playoff threat with nothing to lose.  I do NOT want a repeat of last season.  (Especially if it means giving the Bengals what, 55 f*cking tries from the goalline with the clock expired?)

3. Don't hold it against me, if the Bengals introduce the offense, if I politely applaud Andy Dalton.  Us Horny Frogs gotta stick together.

Finally ...

4. This weekend holds a lot of sentimental value to me, over a couple of events (kenny rogers) through the years.  It's part of why I picked the theme I did -- yeah, it's sappy and sentimental to the point of being f*cking ridiculous ... but isn't that what I am 92.47% of the time?  (Also, it referenced night time sh*t, and I can only go to "In The Air Tonight" so many times before that well runs dry, as a theme for prime time.)

None of the events that make this weekend matter to me are necessarily positive, so all I ask is that if I seem a bit out of it, or down, or less than my usual jovial self, just roll with it.

Because at least we've got tonight.

It's more than the reasons I mourn this weekend, can say.  And godd*mmit, that hurts like a mo fo.

* at Chiefs (-6 1/2) 45, Bengals 20.

See ya when the gates open Sunday!

Oh, and coming (probably) tomorrow: the "Tale O' The Tape" -- what is "Fat" Andy's Worst Playoff Defeat, as Chiefs head coach?

Hey?  If "Konfident" Kev posts the question, the least I can do, is try to answer it ...

week six: is the wait (almost) over ...

"Way behind the water hole,
A little down the line?
The jungle and the plains and peaks?
Are scheduled to be mine!

I'm gonna be the ruler?
Of most everything around!
From the grandest of the mountains,
To the humble common ground!

My reign will be?
A super awesome thing!
Oh I just can't wait
To be king!

I'm gonna be a noble king;
Unscrupulously fair.
I only need a little time --
Perhaps a little hair.

I'm gonna be the mane event,
That no king was before!
I'm brushing up on looking down --
I'm working on my roar!

The fauna and the flora
Gonna swing,
'Cause I just can't wait
To be king! ..."

-- "I Just Can't Wait To Be King" by Sir Elton John.

--------------------

Last Week SU: 9-6-0.
Season to Date SU: 47-29-2.

Last Week ATS: 6-8-1.
Season to Date ATS: 40-33-5.

Last Week Upset / Week: holy hell, Batman.
Season to Date Upset / Week: 2-3-0 SU; 2-2-1 ATS.
This Week Upset / Week: keep reading.

--------------------

The Non-Jets, Non those people, Non-Chiefs Picks.

* Eagles (-3) 31, at Giants 13.
* at "Shane" Falcons (-3 1/2) 38, Bucs 24.  "Gordon Shumway Game O' The Week" honors.
* at Redskins (-1) 24, Panthers 13.
* Seahawks (-3) 30, raiders 20 (Game in London).  "Empty Nest Game O' The Week" honors.
* at Vikings (-10) 34, "Super" Cardinals 6.
* at Bengals (-2 1/2) 31, Steelers 14.
* at Browns (+1) 17, "Super" Chargers 14 (OT).
* at Texans (-10) 45, Bills 14.  "Good Times Game O' The Week" honors.
* Bears (-3) 24, at Dolphins 20.
* at Titans (+2 1/2) 23, Ravens 20.
* at Cowboys (+3) 24, Jaguars 20.
* at Packers (-9 1/2) 31, 49ers 10.  "The Resident Is Better Than This Sh*t" honors.

The "Klassy" Kevin Keitzman Tweet O' The Week.

I'm giving Ol' Klassy a pass this week, mainly because the most inexcusable thing he's tweeted all week is confusing Milwaukee's former baseball team, with its' current one, as to which one made the NLCS.  Let's hope "K"KK gives us some material to use next week.

The Tailgating Plans.

There are no The Tailgating Plans, as this is not a game I will be in attendance for.

The Watching Party Plans.

There'll be a watching party at my Second Parents.  I'm just not sure if it will be indoors, outdoors, or both.  (The forecast here in Kansas City is, uuh, a bit wacko right now.)  The menu (as always for the Patriots) will be Brady Brats and Patty Melts, plus assorted sides and libations.

Stevo's Drink O' The Week.

If you headed out to Arrowhead last Sunday, then you know that it was (a) somewhat cold, (b) somewhat wet, and (c) somewhat miserable for tailgating.  Which made the drink of choice easy.

The Benchwarmer.

The Chiefs used to sell these inside Arrowhead in the early 2000s (note: they probably still do; I just haven't sought one out in years).  A benchwarmer is some nice frothy hot chocolate mixed with a healthy dosage of peppermint schnapps.  It is phenomenal, especially boiled on a grill during tailgating.

Give it a try; just like with most things I highly recommend in life?

Either it's totally worth it ... or just assume I'm so high, I'd try anything.

The Flashback.

C'mon gang.  Peoples and Peepettes.  There's only one game to choose for this week's The Flashback.

And that was the beauty the Chiefs and Patriots staged at Arrowhead in Week 15, 1992.

As with most things in life that are more than twenty five years passed, I'd worried I'd (bill clinton voice) misremembered the details of the day.  Unfortunately, I haven't.  Pro Football Focus confirms the day was as f*cking miserable as I recall: 40ish, brutal wind, dumping down rain.

This is the game best remembered as the one where Bill Maas infamously said the following, regarding the Chiefs chances to win:

"If we put our helmets on, we win".

Not quite, Sir William.  Because the Chiefs did their damndest that day to give the game to the Patriots.  The Pats jumped out early 7-0 on a defensive touchdown caused by the (virtually) unplayable conditions.  The Pats led 13-3 early in the 2nd quarter, 13-6 at halftime ... before the Red and Gold (no doubt motivated by one hell of a halftime speech by someone) poured it on, scoring three touchdowns on three possessions to assume control of the game, and hold on to win 27-20.

The Chiefs needed the win to keep pace with your San Diego "Super" Chargers, who had won nine out of ten to tie the Chiefs in the division standings with two games to play.  Sadly, the Chiefs would choke away the division the following Saturday in New York, losing to a god-awful Giants team in blowout fashion ... but setting up one of my absolute favorite Chiefs games of all time, to close the 1992 regular season.

We'll get to that one, two weeks from now.  And trust me, it's worth the wait.  No fan of the Red and Gold that's at least 40 years old, could fail to name the 1992 finale, in their top ten favorite games ever. 

Or as Kevin Harlan so perfectly noted: "Not even Santa Claus can save the denver broncos today!"

"Disreputable" Mexican Food Truck Update.

I got nothing.  I think that's a good thing.

NEW!  The those people Commentary and Choice.

You know, no matter how troubled times might become in the Kingdom, it's always good to know that things are far, far worse in those people land.  Their head coach is an abject f*cking retard the likes of which mankind has never known.  Their general manager (in addition to being the antichrist) is disappointed in the roster he so sh*ttacularly assembled.  Their fans are demanding regime change in greater numbers as each day passes.  Regime change up to and including apollyon himself.

But above it all, stands one proud those person: Defensive End derek wolfe.  Who, love him or hate him (and we all know which one I choose), love him or hate him, is brutally, brutally honest about the state of affairs in those people land.

He's like the Brent Budowsky of those people land.

So going forward in this magical season that those people have so richly, justly, and completely earned, I intend to check in via mr. wolfe (and others) as to the true state of affairs inside the eighth layer of hell, and then enjoy the hell out of picking these ass-eaters to lose and lose big.

Let's begin with mr. wolfe's comments about his team's indwelt demonic presences fans:

"It's sad we got fans behind our bench talking sh*t, talking about how we don't play with heart and don't play as hard as we can.  Bullsh*t!  We're playing as hard as we can every single snap!"

Which, somehow, sorta kinda, contradicts mr. wolfe's own comments following last Sunday's thoroughly enjoyable gag job at the Fake Meadowlands against an awful, absolutely god-awful Jets squad going nowhere anytime soon:

"Same sh*t every week!  I'm tired of talking about the same sh*t the last two years!"

But hey, it's gonna get better, right?

* those people hold defensive players only meeting * 

Oh.  Because those players only meetings always work, right?

Jesus, I am loving this.

But let's be fair here.  Surely, like every other team in the division, those people have a quarterback under center you can envision being there three years from now, right?

Oh.  I guess not.

And it's only Week Six!  We still have eleven more weeks of the "mile high meltdown" to enjoy!

Anyway, the choice.  To me, this is simple.  There's one person who is going to decide this game ... and he ain't on those people's sideline.  Although he used to be.

Hide the women and children.  By the time "Son O' Bum" is done exacting his revenge on this worthless organization, it's gonna make General Sherman's March to the Sea look like a kid in a sandbox.

* Rams (-7) 52, at those people 0.

The Jets Prediction.

If they can't beat the Colts at home, it's going to be a long march to December.

* at Jets (-2 1/2) 24, Colts 14.

The Chiefs Pontification and Prognostication.

Picking the Chiefs This Season:

Straight Up: 5-0-0.
Against the Spread: 5-0-0.
Upset / Week (When Applicable): 1-0-0.

--------------------

(the congregation) (shifting restlessly in the second office)
(pastor stevo) (shuffling the sermon notes)
(pastor stevo) (taking a chug of something alcoholic in nature)

Let's begin.

--------------------

Earlier this week at Arrowhead Pride, one of the editors of that fine site decided to compare the 2018 Chiefs to the 2003 Chiefs using the statistics available then and now.

Why that struck me, is because I too have been thinking of comparing the 2003 Chiefs to this year's version.  Except from a different angle.

Because just like the 2003 Chiefs had their shot to dethrone "the king", and assume the throne for themselves, potentially for a generation (if not a solid five years) to come?

So too, do the 2018 Chiefs.

On Sunday night.

--------------------

Given that 2003 is (gulp) fifteen years ago, perhaps a look back at that team -- and the wackiness that the AFC entering 2003 was -- is in order. 

For starters, your division champions in 2002 were the Jets, Steelers, Titans, and raiders.  That in and of itself wasn't that surprising; the Steelers hosted the AFC Title Game the prior season, the Titans hadn't had a losing record since 1997 and had made the playoffs three of the previous four seasons, the Jets hadn't had a losing record since 1996 and had made the playoffs in three of the previous five seasons, and the raiders had won three straight AFC West championships.

Your wild card teams in 2002 ... well one of them was the Colts, making their third playoff appearance in four years.  The other was the Browns, making their first (and only) appearance in the playoffs as the "New Browns".  That's a bit weird.

Also weird?  A full twelve teams in the AFC went .500 or better!  No, really -- they did!  Including two entire divisions finishing .500 or better: the AFC West and AFC East ...

And as 2003 dawned, the AFC figured to be as feisty as ever.  But there was one team that had the target on its' back above all others: the defending AFC Champion ... oakland raiders.

--------------------

The 2003 season for the Chiefs started out about as well as one could have hoped.  It opened with a comfortable win over the divisional rival Chargers, then back to back blowouts against the Steelers (home) and Texans (road).  The Chiefs scored 110 points in those first three games, while the defense bent (allowing 48) but not really breaking.

And as Week Three ended, "The King" of the AFC was ... well, struggling.  They lost the AFC Title Game rematch to the Titans to open the season in Nashville, beat the Bengals in the Black Hole, and got pole-axed at fake mile high in a Week Three prime time game.  There's no shame in any of those outcomes ... but there's nothing to be proud of in there either.

The 2018 season for the Chiefs has started about as well as one could have hoped.  It opened with a comfortable win over the divisional rival Chargers, then a near-blowout against the Steelers (road) and an obliteration of the 49ers (home).  The Chiefs scored 118 points in those first three games, while the defense bent mightily (allowing 92 points) ... yet never breaking.

There is one difference between the two squads though.

The 2018 Chiefs never trailed through the first weeks of the season.

The 2003 Chiefs did -- for over 22 minutes, of football action.

--------------------

Week Four.

If ever there was a "trap game", so to speak, there it was in 2003.  The Chiefs, on the road, against a Ravens team that would go on to win the AFC North that season ... on national television.

And if ever there was a "trap game", so to speak, there it was in 2018.  The Chiefs, on the road, against (IMNHO) our most hated divisional rival ... on national television.

Everyone and their brother saying this is it.  This is the moment the Chiefs tumble back down to earth.

And for three and a half quarters -- in both seasons -- everyone and their drunk Uncle Bill were 100% correct.

The Chiefs could do nothing on offense against the Ravens fifteen years ago.  The Chiefs could do nothing on offense against those people two weeks ago.

And then, "the moment".

In Baltimore fifteen years ago, it was a penalty.  A rare penalty on the kicking team, after the Ravens tied the game with barely six minutes to play, that forced a rekick of the, uuh, kickoff.

Ladies and Gentlemen, the moment the 2003 Chiefs season got real:



Against those people, it was a play that literally moved this dude to tears, to make this 2018 Chiefs season get real:



Impossibly, improbably ... 4-0.  2003.  2018.  4-0.

With a far, far bigger challenge coming next, each season.

--------------------

In 2003, that challenge was a showdown that still to this day rates amongst the greatest of days at Arrowhead. 

4-0 Kansas City hosting 4-0 those people.

Last week, that challenge was a showdown against a team many consider to be the best in the AFC at every position save one.

4-0 Kansas City hosting 3-1 Jacksonville.

In 2003, those people had already beat "The King" in their place in a nationally televised game, pounding the raiders in Week Three.

In 2018, the Jaguars had already beat "The King" in their place in a nationally televised game, pounding the Patriots in Week Two.

I suppose here is where I mention, the similarities actually end for a week, between 2003 and 2018.  The 2003 Chiefs trailed nearly all day long, needed a miraculous punt return with barely nine to play to grab a one point lead, and then held on for dear life for the ensuing nine minutes.

The 2018 Chiefs led 23-0 at halftime after Chris Jones' awesome touchdown pick, and were never seriously threatened most of the day.

But still, at the end of the day, each version of the Chiefs stood at 5-0, the last unbeaten in the NFL ... and making apologies for that fact, to nobody.

--------------------

And so here we are.  The Showdown with "The King" of the Conference.

The 2003 Chiefs had to survive one more game before getting their shot at the defending conference champs ... and "survive" is a misnomer.  They had to stage a comeback for the ages.  Trailing 34-17 with barely eight minutes to play, the Chiefs scored the final 23 points, including a touchdown in overtime to Johnny Morton, to somehow win 40-34 at Lambeau Field.

But just like the 2018 Chiefs, the 2003 Chiefs got their shot at knocking off "The King" -- on the road, in the biggest prime time game of the week.

--------------------

Knock off "The King", those 2003 Chiefs did, quite literally -- they ended Rich Gannon's career early in the second quarter, sending oakland spiraling into a lost season that ended at 4-12, saw "Sur" William Callahan fired, and saw an endless string of loser coaching and double digit loss seasons begin.  Whatever one may think of the blown opportunity that Monday Nighter in late October 2003 wound up being, there can be no doubt: the young contender took their shot at the champion, and shattered every bone in said champion's body.

And now, fifteen years later, the Chiefs have the chance to do the same thing again: end the champion's reign.

Young Simba has the chance on Sunday night to announce to the world?

That he's through waiting, to be king.

Or, more to the point -- he's done with a 40 plus year old quarterback, proclaiming himself, to be the king.

--------------------

So after all this, allow me to say four things, then make the prognostication.

1. This game is NOT going to be a blowout, either way.  I know both regular season games between "Fat" Andy and Bill Belichick in the last five years have been Chiefs obliterations of the Patriots.  That ain't happening Sunday night.  In fact, if there is going to be a blowout Sunday night, I'd wager on the Patriots, providing the whopping of proverbial ass.

2. I honestly believe, this is the only time these teams will meet this season.  Mainly because I believe these will be the top two seeds in the AFC when the dust settles, and at least one of them will sh*t the bed at home in the Divisional Round.  (For once, I pray it's not us.  Please -- just once.)

3. The key to this game will be the Chiefs ability to generate a rush on Brady without sacrificing the secondary to do it.  The Chiefs linebacking core is in worse shape than Lionel Richie after his wife caught him cheating on her back in the day.  I honestly see no way this is going to happen.  "Bulldog" Bob Sutton is going to have to gamble with safety and corner blitzes.  To be fair, this strategory worked big time in the last matchup, to open the 2017 season.  But the Chiefs were also playing two scores ahead most of the second half last year.  Which is point four.

4. If Dustin Colquitt punts more than five times, the Chiefs will lose.  Frankly, I'd drop the number to four, but I always try to build in the "nobody gives a sh*t" punt to end the first half to simply bleed the clock (ditto potentially in the second half as well).

The Chiefs went 5 for 5 against the 49ers in the first half.  Five possessions, five touchdowns.  They were up 14-0 on the Chargers barely two minutes into the game.  Jacksonville was down 23-0 before the rain stopped last week.  Even the Steelers were down 21-0 and a gratuitous holding call away from being down 28-0 before the first quarter was over.

The ONLY game the Chiefs have struggled to bury their opponent early, was the game against those people ... and go figure, it's the only game they've trailed in.

--------------------

Sunday night, the Chiefs king-in-waiting has one hell of a golden opportunity, to shorten the waiting period before he takes the throne.  Just like Trent Green had fifteen years ago.

Fifteen years ago, the Chiefs were the best offense in football, led by the brightest offensive mind the sport had to offer.  Just like the Chiefs of today.

Sunday night, a Chiefs defense that couldn't stop a quadrapalegic from scoring takes the field.  Just like the Chiefs of fifteen years ago.

Forgotten about that Chiefs victory fifteen years ago?

Is that the 32 Defense held, on the final play of the game, to get the Chiefs to 7-0, via a last second goalline stand to emerge victorious at 17-10.

What I don't think will be forgotten anytime soon about Sunday night?

Is that the Chiefs defense, isn't going to be on the field, when the game is decided.

Or as Sir Elton John put it best, pushing (gulp) 25 years ago:

"The time has come, as some have said,
To talk of many things.
That may be true, but I would rather
Stick to talking kings!

It's easy to be royal,
If you're already leoline.
'Cause it isn't just my right --
Even my left?  Will be divine!

The (Kingdom) is waiting
To go zing?
Oh I just can't wait
To be king!

I just can't wait?
To be king!!!!!!"

Your Upset O' The Week?

(stevo sighing in disgust voice) Take a mother f*cking guess.

* Chiefs (+3 1/2) 41, at Patriots 38, via a Patrick Mahomes "Of The Chiefs" touchdown pass to Demetrius Harris, as time expires.

This is gonna be fun folks.  And it's only about to get funner ...

do you realize what today means, chiefs fans ...

"I've been reading books of old;
The legends and the myths.
Achilles and his gold;
Hercules and his gifts.

Spiderman's control,
And Batman with his fists --
And I clearly don't see
Myself upon that list.

But she said, where'd you wanna go?
How much you wanna risk?
I'm not looking for somebody,
With super human gifts.

Some superhero?
Some fairy tale bliss?
Just somebody I can turn to;
Somebody I can kiss.

I want something?
Just like this!

I want something?
Just like this! ..."

-- "Something Just Like This" by the Chainsmokers.

--------------------

Wherever he may be nowadays, I believe Tony Dumas needs to update the flight plans, sir * .

I noted to Tyler leaving Arrowhead on Sunday that I was 80% sure the Chiefs / Bengals game next week would get flexed to a later starting time.  I just thought that time would be 3:25pm.  I didn't dream the NFL would give us free prime time football at Arrowhead just for the hell of it.

Bengals!  Chiefs!  Prime!  Time!

And thus, the march through the most crucial three weeks of the (regular) season?

Just got that much more damned enjoyable.

And potentially memorable.

--------------------

(*: you had to live in the Metroplex, and/or be a Dallas Mavericks fan, from 1994ish to 2000ish, to get that joke.  I qualify for both "designations".)

--------------------

First, a brief interlude, before getting to the point(s) of the post, and there are two of them -- one of them kinda obvious, one of them not so much.

This is "Fat" Andy Reid's sixth season.  As best I can tell, the Chiefs have been flexed INTO a better time slot, five times prior under "Fat" Andy:

* Week Seven 2013: Texans game moved from noon to 3:25 national game.  (I should note, I still haven't seen the Chiefense ever look better, than those last fifteen minutes of that contest.  I turn 42 in less than 90 days.  I feel like you should know that.)

* Week Eleven 2013: those people game moved from 3:25pm to Sunday Night.  (It did inspire what is still to this moment, my favorite post I've ever, uuh, posted.)

* Week Seventeen 2015: raiders game moved from noon to 3:25pm national game.  (Game meant nothing to both teams ultimately due to those people win at same time.)

* Week Twelve 2016: those people game moved from 3:25pm to Sunday Night.  (The Doink Heard Round the World Game.)

* AFC Divisional Round 2016: Steelers game moved from noon to Sunday Night due to weather.  (For what it's worth, I believe this loss, is the number one reason the Chiefs traded up to get Patrick Mahomes "Of The Chiefs".  They knew they would never get farther than the Divisional Round, with "Sir" Alex Smith.)

And now, we have a sixth: Week Seven 2017, Bengals game moved from noon to Sunday Night.

For what it's also worth, I cannot find a single time the Chiefs have been demoted from prime time, to a regular afternoon slot, in the "Fat" Andy Reid era.

Gaining an extra national TV game every season, solely because our coach is so damned good, 9-7 is the f*cking floor for this franchise?  Sign me up!

--------------------

So here's the two points.

1. If you people thought the roar when Patrick Mahomes "Of The Chiefs" was introduced two weeks ago was awe-inspiring (and trust me -- I cried for seven straight minutes simply hearing "and at quarterback" over the PA system), if you thought that could move your emotions to the point of tears?

Imagine hearing "and at safety, from Tennessee!" a week from Sunday night during player intros.  I mean, Jesus, talk about a moment.  If Eric Berry chooses that spot to return (and for what it's worth, it seems as good a time as any), can you imagine the roar?  Can you just close your eyes and imagine it?  Because I can.  And I want to see it.

But more to the point ...

2. Do you realize just how monumental today is?  It's OK if it slid by you.  It took me a solid four seconds to realize it when I got the text from multiple people that we'd been flexed to Sunday night.

As my buddy and (once again ... I think this is the fourth time now?) co-worker Pickell would put it: "put it this way".

Put it this way -- in the five previous flex games?  Three have involved satan manning, and a fourth involved the Ice Storm of the Decade.  (The other one?  Not sure what the NFL was thinking, flexing a 2-4 Texans at 6-0 Chiefs game back to 3:30 ... but we'll take it.)

This game was flexed today solely and only because the Chiefs are involved.

Specifically, this game was flexed today solely and only because Patrick Mahomes "Of The Chiefs" is involved.

Folks?  The NFL kicked OUT the LA and San Francisco market from prime time, to give you ... the Cincinnati and Kansas City markets.

Because Patrick Mahomes "Of The Chiefs".

Let that sink in: the NFL threw out a guaranteed ratings winner in LA and the Bay Area (two of the top five television markets) for KC (around twentieth) and Cincinnati (ditto).

They threw out a guaranteed 12 rating / 20 share ... to gamble on Patrick Mahomes "Of The Chiefs" drawing the nation in and improve on the 12 / 20 floor.

(Note: my college roommate was a RTVF major.  I had to listen to Nielsen explanations more than I care to remember.  I do remember, though, that a 12 / 20 is damned good ... and the NFL and The Big Bang Theory are about the only two franchises left, that can deliver that rating, on a weekly basis.)

Today, Chiefs fans?

The NFL rolled the dice on the Chiefs being a national draw simply because they're the Chiefs ... led by Patrick Mahomes "Of The Chiefs".

This?  We ain't seen before.

The NFL kicked LA and the Bay Area to the curb, for us.

NBC kicked LA and the Bay Area to the curb, for us.

How f*cking awesome is that?

chiefs jaguars thought(s) and pick ...

"Raindrops?
Keep falling on my head.
And just like the guy
Whose feet are too big for his bed?

Nothing seems to fit.
Those raindrops are falling
On my head --
They keep falling.

So I just did me
Some talking to the sun.
And I said I didn't like
The way he got things done;

Sleeping on the job.
Those raindrops are falling
On my head --
They keep falling.

But there's one thing?
I know --
The blues they send to meet me?
Won't defeat me!

It won't be long?
Til happiness?
Steps up?
To greet me!

Raindrops?
Keep falling on my head.
But that doesn't mean my eyes
Will soon be turning red!

Crying's not for me
Cause I'm never gonna
Stop the rain
By complaining

Because I'm free --
Nothing's worrying me! ..."

-- "Raindrops Keep Falling on My Head" by BJ Thomas.

--------------------

Picking The Chiefs This Season:

Straight Up: 4-0-0.
Against the Spread: 4-0-0.
Upset / Week: 1-0-0.

--------------------

I begin typing this at approximately 3:48am Kansas City time on Saturday morning.  The reason why I'm awake is quite simple: it's pouring outside.  And like a drunken idiot (shaddup!), I left the window above my bed open before falling asleep passing out last night, and go figure, now the top half of my bed is sopping wet, and the sheets are now in the dryer to, uuh, dry out.

Somehow this seems fitting, since according to every reputable local forecast, it's going to be like this for at least tailgating and the first half of tomorrow Chiefs / Jaguars showdown.

And let there be no doubt: this is a showdown, in every sense of the word.

Because the winner on Sunday, owns the inside lane, in the race to home field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs.

--------------------

Before I forget ...

The Tailgating Plans.

We're just doing burgers / brats / dogs, plus assorted side dishes.  Nothing difficult.  Given the forecast for a steady rain all day tomorrow, the easier the better.

We'll be in our usual spot (the grassy knoll just north of the G30 sign) when the gates open.  Hopefully the Good Lord Up Above will give us a 30 minute dry spat about 7:30am tomorrow, to get the tents up before it really begins dumping.  #akidcandream.

Feel free to join us.

--------------------

These next three weeks in the AFC are going to be fascinating to watch unfold.  Currently nine teams are at least .500 in the AFC.  (And somehow?  The Steelers and Texans aren't among those nine ... though I think one of them will be come October 22nd.)

There are so many showdowns that are going to have serious ramifications come December 30th, that it ... frankly, it requires a tracking sheet.  So here you go -- the next three weeks for all nine teams at .500 or better, plus the Steelers and Texans (at least one of whom is going to rally to grab a playoff berth):

The AFC is going to have some clarity to it in three weeks.

Which means the Chiefs -- despite starting at least 4-0 for the third time in six years under "Fat" Andy Reid -- have a sh*t ton of work left to do.

Beginning tomorrow.

--------------------

I'm not delivering some peppy, inspirational speech for y'all this week.  If you as a Chiefs fan cannot recognize how important this game is, then I can't help you.

I know it's supposed to rain most of the day tomorrow.  So what?  We're good for one rain game a year, at least.  And at least this time, it'll be in the 70s.  It'll feel like a sauna in the lower bowl once the rain stops.  (And if the sun comes out ... perhaps we get a second straight "Perfect Stevo Game"?)

And so ... the pick.

It's almost more important the Chiefs go 3-1 in this quarter, than that they opened at least 2-2 in the previous quarter.  Yes, going 4-0 vs 2-2 (or worse) gives us some margin for error, especially within the division.  We're two clear of every divisional rival, with two divisional road wins in hand.

But a Jags win on Sunday?  Gives them the tiebreaker.

A Patriots win next Sunday?  Gives them the tiebreaker.

A Bengals win two weeks from Sunday?  Gives them the tiebreaker.

And we still have to host Baltimore (another 3-1 squad), in early December.

The Chiefs have shown they have no problem winning or finishing second in the AFC West under "Fat" Andy Reid -- they've done it every year, resulting in 4 playoff berths in 5 years (and missing the playoffs on tiebreakers, they year they missed).

It's beating teams outside the division they struggle with, especially in January.

They can take a big step towards establishing credibility in that regard, on Sunday.

And next Sunday.

And the Sunday after that.

I've struggled all week on how to pick this game.  My head says the Jaguars steal this one via some late bullsh*t via a f*cked up field.  (C'mon, you didn't really expect me to go four letter word free in this post, did ya?)  My heart says this team is different than any other Chiefs team I've ever seen.  That you can't go with your head, you can't go with what your eyes see.  You just have to believe.

* at Chiefs (-3) 31, Jaguars 23.

Hope to see y'all tomorrow ...

week five non-chiefs picks

"It's time to play the music!
It's time to light the lights!
It's time to meet the Muppets,
On the Muppet Show Tonight!

It's time to put on makeup!
It's time to dress up right!
It's time to raise the curtain,
On the Muppet Show Tonight!

Why do we always come here?
I guess we'll never know.
It's like a kind of torture,
To have to watch the show!

And now let's get things started!
Why don't you get things started!
It's time to get things started!
On the most sensational!

Inspirational!
Celebrational!
Muppetational!
This is what we call the Muppets Show!!!!!

(gonzo) !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!"

-- The Theme from "The Muppet Show Tonight".

--------------------

Last Week SU: 11-4-0.
Season to Date SU: 38-23-2.

Last Week ATS: 7-5-3.
Season to Date ATS: 34-25-4.

Last Week Upset / Week: it's a cover.
Season to Date Upset / Week: 2-2-0 SU; 2-1-1 ATS.
This Week's Upset / Week: raiders (+6) over "Super" Chargers.

--------------------

The Non-Chiefs Picks:

* at Patriots 30, Colts (+10) 21.
* at Bills (+3 1/2) 19, Titans 14.  "ALF Game O' The Week" honors.
* "Shane" Falcons (+3) 34, at Steelers 13.
* at Jets (-1) 24, those people 14.
* at Lions (+1) 31, Packers 23.
* at Browns (+3) 20, Ravens 16.
* at Panthers (-7) 45, Giants 0.  "Empty Nest Game O' The Week" honors.
* Dolphins (+6 1/2) 22, at Bengals 20.
* raiders (+6) 31, at "Super" Chargers 20.
* at 49ers (-4 1/2) 13, "Super" Cardinals 6.  "Good Times Game O' The Week" honors.
* at Eagles (-3) 34, Vikings 30.
* at Seahawks (+7) 24, Rams 23.
* at Texans (-3) 38, Cowboys 24.
* at Saints 31, Redskins (+6 1/2) 30.

--------------------

Apologies for a second week in a row, for a short picks post.  I'm still two recaps behind that I really want to finish and post (the 49ers home game / the those people road trip).  In addition, for those of you who don't know who I am ... congratulations!  You've won life's lottery!  Nah, just kidding.  My day job is that I am a reinsurance accountant (trust me, you don't want to know) for a fairly well known Kansas City based insurance company, and I am dealing with month and quarter end right now, so I don't have a lot of free time ... and pretty much burned up all of it with the roadie to denver earlier this week.  (Pause).  What?  (Pause).  Well of course PTO wasn't the only thing I burned in denver earlier this week!  Come on!  I was lit by 4:20 local time the day I arrived for crying out loud!

So once again, my profound apologies.  Hopefully Week Six will be better ... but it'll probably be Week Seven before things get back to normal around here.  (Namely, I type this post up while enjoying the Drink O' The Week on Wednesday night.)

Chiefs / Jags thoughts, comments, and pick coming by Saturday evening.  (For what it's worth, I'm 4-0 both SU and ATS picking the Chiefs this year ... and 1-0 picking them as the Upset O' The Week.  Which doesn't apply on Sunday.  But still.  #dialedin)

Also, by Saturday midday we might have a clue regarding The Tailgating Plans.  (If you aren't from KC ... there's a 100% chance of rain Saturday, a 90% chance of rain Sunday, and a 75% chance of rain Monday here.  That ... that's not good, when you sit outside of the overhang in the lower bowl, as I do.)

Oh, and the reason for your theme to this post?  Really?  You have to ask?



Of all the reasons to irrationally love this man?

I am no longer the owner of THE weirdest, worst sounding voice in the Kansas City metropolitan area!  Woo me!  Yay Stevo!  Go Kermie!  I mean, go Mahomie!

(Also, admit it -- I look even hotter today, than I did then.  #aginglikeafinewine)

the chiefs pontification and prognostication ...

"Hey Mr. Tambourine man!
Play a song for me!
I'm not sleepy, and there is no place
I'm going to!

Hey Mr. Tambourine man!
Play a song for me!
And in the jingle jangle morning?
I'll come following you!

Take me on a trip,
Upon your magic swirling ship!
All my senses have been stripped!
My toes?  Too numb to step!

Waiting only for my boot heels?
To go wandering.

I'm ready to go anywhere!
I'm ready for to fade,
Into my own parade --
Cast your dancing spell my way!

I promise?
To go under it ...

Hey Mr. Tambourine man!
Play a song for me!
I'm not sleepy, and there is no place
I'm going to!

Hey Mr. Tambourine man!
Play a song for me!
And in the jingle jangle morning?
I'll come following you! ..."

-- "Mr. Tambourine Man" by Bob Dylan.

--------------------

Picking The Chiefs This Season.

Straight Up: 3-0-0.
Against the Spread: 3-0-0.
As Upset / Week: 1-0-0.

--------------------

It's been five years since I set foot in the city a mile high above sea level.

I am here, the evening before one epic regular season game between the team I love irrationally, and the team I hate irrationally, at the lovely Clarion Denver Central hotel, chosen because (and this is not a joke) it is supposed to be the most 420 friendly hotel in all of Denver proper.

(You'd think I chose it ... but for once?  You'd be completely wrong.)

I can confirm, that if this place ain't the most 420 friendly hotel in Denver proper ... it's gotta be in the top ten.

For starters, they have a 420 Tree outside.  That is not a joke.  They have a 420 Tree, where guests grab a stone and wish their best, uuh, wishes, upon said, uuh, stone, at the base of said tree.

You doubt me?

(image credit: me, via my iPhone 8 something.)

Secondly, the elevators and half the floors reek like it was Stubbs ten years ago * .  I know -- this is a great thing, right?  31 year old me is drooling, literally drooling, over knowing 41 year old me would be spending a couple nights in a hotel that doesn't give a f*ck if you like to light up every now and then for purely recreational use.  (Although in fairness to me, next time you see me, ask to try on my glasses.  My eyesight is abysmal.  I probably could get a legal card, if my fine home state approves the ballot measure in 37 days.

Thirdly, we've got a game to play.

And this one is huge.

--------------------

(*: as the one person you will ever know who does not believe in coincidence ... I do not find it ironic in any way, shape or form, that the tenth anniversary of meeting the "those people" fan formerly known on this site as "The Chica" ... is tomorrow, as her "those people" and my Chiefs do battle inside the eighth layer of hell itself.  If anything?  I think it's perfect.)

--------------------

In the words of the "Voice of the Chiefs", Mitch Holtgus: "for all intents and purposes", the AFC West can be decided tomorrow night.

If the Chiefs win, they will be two clear of both the "Super" Chargers and those people ... with divisional wins against both, in their home stadiums.

Furthermore, if the Chiefs win, they will not only be the last unbeaten in the AFC, but the next three weeks gives this team an opportunity it is rarely afforded: they can all but end the AFC home field race, before Halloween.

The Chiefs next three after tomorrow night are vs Jaguars / at Patriots / vs Bengals.  Save for Miami, those are your three AFC teams with the best record other than the Chiefs, that are a viable threat to win 11 games and get a bye.  And Miami ain't a viable threat to win 11 and get a bye; they're just the only one of those four teams, the Chiefs don't control their own destiny against, over the next four weeks.

But before last rites are performed upon the AFC ... the Chiefs have to survive this contest first.

And it might take an exorcism, to pull this one off.

--------------------

Two things have surprised me here in denver so far:

(a) how many Chiefs fans are here, and
(b) how confident those people's fans are, that we will win.

(a) is awesome.

(b) terrifies me.

--------------------

Last year, in the Monday Nighter at Arrowhead, a lot of the same sentiment reigned.  Namely, "it cannot possibly be this obvious and this easy, right?"

I feel the same way tonight, about thirty minutes before I pass out and get a solid herbal-induced ten hours of sleep.

It cannot possibly be this obvious.

And there's no way, it can possibly be this easy.

Or can it?

--------------------

When the news came on here after the 49ers / Chargers game was over, the lead story was the Rockies forcing a one game "winner gets a bye / loser's going to Miller Park (probably)" play-in game tomorrow, at 2pm Mountain Time.  (Note: thank God that game is at Chavez Ravine; I cannot imagine what a nightmare tomorrow would be, if the game was across the freeway at Coors Field.)

This is gonna be one fun sports day out here, peoples and peepettes.  The forecast isn't half shabby (81 and partly cloudy at kickoff; 30% chance rain during the game).  The Rockies go at 2; their game should be going final as we're walking into Arrowhead West.

Given the epic games that went down today (Bengals / Falcons; Browns / raiders; Eagles / Titans; Texans / Colts ** ), why not stage one more?

--------------------

(**: for the record, I would have punted and taken the tie ... but I totally get why the Colts went for it.)

--------------------

I think this is going to be a high-scoring contest, that resembles the second half and overtime of the epic game two years ago on Thanksgiving Weekend.

I think both teams are going to give up 30 plus.  I predict we will see fewer than 5 combined punts, and I predict we will see fewer than 3 combined turnovers.

I also predict the team with the ball last, will win it.

* Chiefs (-3 1/2) 42, at those people 34.

If you're in this (hellhole) of a metropolitan community, we're tailgating in Lot M tomorrow.  I'm sitting in Section 117, Row 37.  Feel free to swing by. 

And wherever y'all are tomorrow, Arrowhead Nation? 

Be loud.

I'll be doing my part, inside the eighth layer of hell itself.  Just do yours as well ...

week four non-chiefs picks

Note: due to work and volunteer obligations, as well as travel plans for Monday night's Chiefs / those people game at fake mile high, the picks posts are gonna be light this week. 

Chiefs / those people pick and commentary coming separately, (possibly) Friday night or (probably) Saturday morning.

Also, I'm still working on the recap of the 49ers / Chiefs game.  It's ... look it.  There were six minutes on Sunday, from 11:46 to 11:52am, that hit me so hard emotionally that I have literally spent pushing four hours and counting staring at a blank screen.  I have no idea how to describe what hearing three words, three freaking words I've never even thought about before, I have no idea to describe just how hard those words hit me emotionally on Sunday. 

(Also, how does this hot-as-hell 41 year old dude describe how those three words made him cry like he's never cried over a moment in sports before?  I mean, I bawled like a newborn baby when Mario hit the three ten years ago * .  My reaction to that shot looks like a kid in a sandbox, compared to my reaction to Mr. Mahomes' introduction on Sunday.)

I hope to get that done by Sunday night; I've got a ten hour ride to work on it on Sunday if need be.

Below are the non-Chiefs picks.

(*: for the record, my reaction was to fall off the couch, begin immediately pounding the floor, all while scream crying "yes!" for the next five minutes.  Multiple people can confirm this.  My response to hearing "and at quarterback" on Sunday, made that look like amateur hour.)

Last Week SU: 7-9-0.
Season to Date SU: 27-19-2.

Last Week ATS: 7-9-0.
Season to Date ATS: 27-20-1.

Last Week Upset / Week: I got what I wanted.
Season to Date Upset / Week: 2-1-0 SU, 1-1-1 ATS.
This Week Upset / Week: Lions (+3) over Cowboys.

The Non-Chiefs Picks:

* at Rams (-7) 31, Vikings 14.
* at "Shane" Falcons (-5) 34, Bengals 27.
* Dolphins (+6 1/2) 24, at Patriots 13.
* Texans (+1 1/2) 30, at Colts 20.  "Empty Nest Game O' The Week" honors.
* at Packers 24, Bills (+10) 16.
* Lions (+3) 31, at Cowboys 20.
* at Titans (+4) 24, Eagles 14.
* at Jaguars 16, Jets (+7 1/2) 13.
* at Bears (-3) 24, Bucs 20.
* Seahawks (-3) 27, at "Super" Cardinals 13.  "Good Times Game O' The Week" honors.
* at raiders (-3) 31, Browns 24.  "Gordon Shumway Game O' The Week" honors.
* at "Super" Chargers 20, 49ers (+11) 17.
* Saints (-3 1/2) 55, at Giants 2.
* at Steelers (-3) 13, Ravens 6.

stevo's 2018 nfl predictions

"Well my friends?
The time has come.
To raise the roof,
And have some fun.

Throw away
The work to be done,
And let the music
Play on!

Everybody sing;
Everybody dance.
Lose yourself?
In wild romance!

We're going to party!
Caramba!  Fiesta!
Forever!
Come on and sing along!

We're going to party!
Caramba!  Fiesta!
Forever!
Come on and sing along!

All night long!  (All night!)
All night!  (All night!)
All night long!  (All night!)
All night!  (All night!)

All night long!  (All night!)
All night!  (All night!)
All night long!  (All night!)
All night!  (All night!) ...

-- "All Night Long" by Lionel Richie.

--------------------

Welcome to the 2018 NFL Season Predictions Post.

Unlike last year, I'm not splitting this into five pieces, namely because I don't have the time to do it.  So here we go, via the Version 1.0 NFL Power Poll for 2018.

Oh, and the schedule runs will appear as the eight division winners appear farther down this post. 

(And yes, I know -- I somehow wound up with a 255-257 record.  I literally spent an afternoon at work going line by line across sheets to find the error, and I couldn't do it.  Also, I should probably note, this is year twenty of me working as a reinsurance accountant across two global and one local reinsurance companies.  I am a fairly well known name in the industry (which, in a rarity for me, being fairly well known is a positive).  And I couldn't find one error on seventeen lines of a tab despite four hours and multiple formulas (to say nothing of literally printing off each tab and going literally line by line by hand, to try to find said error).  I feel you should know that.)

All I can say, is that if you're a fan of the direction the NFL is heading on the field?  (And I sure as hell am!)  Then you're gonna love the final four matchups, my schedule run came up with.

And I mean LOVE.

Because there isn't a quarterback over the age of 24, in my Final Four.

Tier One: The Last Place Finishers.

32. Baltimore Ravens (AFC Norris).
Projected Finish: 3-13-0 Overall / 0-6-0 Division / 1-11-0 Conference.

This is gonna be a brutal season for the Ravens.  So brutal?  That I project they will "accomplish" something they have never done in 22 prior years: lose at Arrowhead in a game that counts.

31. Arizona "Super" Cardinals (NFC West).
Projected Record: 3-13-0 Overall / 0-6-0 Division / 1-11-0 Conference.

On the bright side, you got Josh Rosen, my favorite QB in this year's draft.  On the down side, you got Josh Rosen, my favorite QB in this year's draft. 

30. New York Giants (NFC East).
Projected Record: 4-12-0 Overall / 2-4-0 Division / 4-8-0 Conference.

I give it until about seven minutes left in the second quarter Sunday, before the "Pat Must Go!" chants break out at Fake Giants Stadium.  Considering Pat Shurmur never should have been hired, that seems like a conservative guesstimate, on the exact point the fanbase revolts against this indefensible hire.

29. New York Jets (AFC East).
Projected Record: 4-12-0 Overall / 2-4-0 Division / 4-8-0 Conference.

Drafting Browning Nagle Junior (aka Sam Darnold) might finally be my breaking point with this miserable franchise.  (Pause).  Jesus, I'll never quit these lovable losers.

28. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (NFC South).
Projected Record: 5-11-0 Overall / 3-3-0 Division / 4-8-0 Conference.

Opening 0-5 (as I project the Bucs will do) does nothing to help inspire confidence in the future of this franchise.  Much less the present.

27. Los Angeles "Super" Chargers (AFC West).
Projected Record: 6-10-0 Overall / 2-4-0 Division / 4-8-0 Conference.

This team is 4-11 in games that count prior to October 9th the previous three years.  Four.  And.  Eleven.

(In contrast?  The Chiefs are 9-5.  (We had the early bye (Week 5) in 2016 to account for a one game difference.)  The point being?  The Chiefs average being two games ahead of these guys at the quarter point of the season, the last three years.  Also, the Chiefs owned divisional wins over the Chargers at the quarter point in both 2016 and 2017, as part of those nine wins and eleven Charger defeats, so make it effectively three games up with eleven to play.)

Their head coach is a blithering idiot, their quarterback has more kids (eight at last count) than playoff berths in his career (five at last count), they play in a stadium that freaking Dolphins fans outnumbered Chargers fans in last fall (to say nothing of every other visitor to wherever the hell they play at), and as if all that isn't damning enough ...

They open vs Chiefs (who they haven't beaten in their last eight attempts) / at Bills (however awful the Bills may be, home openers are always dicey) / at Rams (good luck guys) / vs 49ers (whose fans will definitely outnumber Chargers fans for).  That smells like 1-3 at best. 

Throw in a brutal last five (at Steelers / vs Bengals / at Chiefs (Thurs) / vs Ravens / at those people), to say nothing of the huge roster improvement of one divisional foe (and that foe ain't the Chiefs, and it ain't the raiders), and this just seems like the preseason darling that is going to sh*t the bed this fall.

Which is what I'm projecting.

26. Chicago Bears (NFC Norris).
Projected Record: 7-9-0 Overall / 3-3-0 Division / 5-7-0 Conference.

I actually have the Bears at 6-4 going to Detroit on Turkey Day, before the floor collapses.  (The last six is brutal folks -- roadies to the Lions, 49ers and Vikings, plus home games against the Rams and Packers.)  I also have the Bears with a better final record than a third place finisher, and a second place finisher, in other divisions.  But since I project them to finish last in the NFC Norris, they fall into Tier One. 

The compass is pointed north in the Windy City for once.  There's a future here worth looking forward to for once. 

25. Indianapolis Colts (AFC South).
Projected Record: 8-8-0 Overall / 3-3-0 Division / 6-6-0 Conference.

I have the Indianapolis Colts in a "win and they're in" finale against the Titans.  (Hint: they won't win.)  If Andrew Luck is healthy, this team will be in the wildcard mix, if not in the hunt for the AFC South.  But that's one gigantic big "if".

Tier Two: The Third Place Finishers.

24. Buffalo Bills (AFC East).
Projected Record: 5-11-0 Overall / 3-3-0 Division / 5-7-0 Conference.

At least that Monday Nighter against the Patriots should be fun for their fans.  Because not much else this year, will be.

23. Cleveland Browns (AFC Norris).
Projected Record: 8-8-0 Overall / 4-2-0 Division / 6-6-0 Conference.

I have the Browns on the fringe of things for a wild card berth entering December.  This team is finally headed in the wrong right direction.  I just couldn't find a ninth win for them in the run.  And considering some of the wins I gave them, nine really seems like a stretch.  But if anybody can pull it off, and obtain a "how the f*ck did this happen?!?!?!" playoff berth a year after rock stinking bottom, it's John Dorsey.  (frank gifford voice) We've seen it before.  (dan dierdorf voice) Oh yeah!

22. those people (AFC West).
Projected Record: 8-8-0 Overall / 2-4-0 Division / 6-6-0 Conference.

The clusterf*ck at 9-7 / 8-8 in the AFC is so f*cking beautiful I nearly cried watching it play out.  Not one, not two, not three, not four, not five, not six, not seven, but eight -- eight! -- AFC squads at 8-8 or 9-7, with a ninth at 7-9, and two more at 10-6.  Five of those eleven, are making the playoffs. 

Thankfully, one of those four five is not going to be those people, the most despicable, indefensible, intolerable, vile, evil, demonic sports franchise to ever be birthed.  I despise, and I mean despise, those people so much, I decided two years ago to just give in to the unfiltered hatred, and refuse to even type their name, let alone say it.  Sh*t, I don't even use nicknames anymore like "bronkeys" or "unicorns" or "donkeys" or "heaving penises", because that gives them too much respect.

There's a reason why my first task at tailgating every week (after getting the Bus unloaded of course), is to lynch that despicable mascot with his five nooses, stuff that Chiefs pacifier in his demonic face, and slap the Chiefs diaper on him.  And that reason is to give each and every fan the ability to let Cinco Noose Donkey know exactly what we think of him and his people.  (Hint: his helmet was broken due to a drunken meltdown by someone (cough me cough) after the 2015 defeat to those people.)

Anyways, back to the Poll.  If only because a pole is the only thing any female those people fan is even remotely qualified, to work on.

21. Atlanta "Shane" Falcons (NFC South).
Projected Record: 8-8-0 Overall / 3-3-0 Division / 6-6-0 Conference.

Surprise?  Somebody has to finish third in the South, and I'm fairly confident it won't be New Orleans, which leaves the "Shane" Falcons and Panthers to battle it out for the "honors".  Having six of their last nine (including all three divisional ones) on the road killed their stretch run.

20. Philadelphia Eagles (NFC East).
Projected Record: 8-8-0 Overall / 3-3-0 Division / 6-6-0 Conference.

For those who think I'm nuts for picking the Eagles third, I remind you, I picked them to finish first last year, and win a playoff game once they got there.  Find another prognosticator with the foresight to have done that, at this time last season.

The Eagles last four buried them; I have them losing all three roadies in that stretch (Rams, Cowboys, Redskins), to miss the postseason.

19. San Francisco 49ers (NFC West).
Projected Record: 9-7-0 Overall / 4-2-0 Division / 7-5-0 Conference.

The first six are going to kill the 49ers.  I have them controlling their own destiny for a wild card berth entering the finale (which I have them losing) despite opening 2-4.  Brighter days are ahead for these guys for sure.

18. Minnesota Vikings (NFC Norris).
Projected Record: 9-7-0 Overall / 3-3-0 Division / 6-6-0 Conference.

I have the Vikings beating the 49ers in Week One, hence the higher ranking despite the 49ers superior conference record.

I just ... I can't explain it.  There's three teams that everyone seems to love this year that I think are going to regress.  One is your "Super" Chargers.  The Vikings are the second.  I don't like f*cking with chemistry at the quarterback position, that's working.  (See Chiefs, 1997-1998).  I really don't like f*cking with it for someone outside the building that doesn't know the playbook, doesn't know the culture, doesn't know the franchise.  (See Chiefs, 1997-1998).

Week Sixteen wound up being the Vikings kryptonite.  If they had won in Week Sixteen, they not only would have made the playoffs, they would have been the three seed as NFC Norris champs.

17. Jacksonville Jaguars (AFC South).
Projected Record: 9-7-0 Overall / 3-3-0 Division / 6-6-0 Conference.
Postseason: AFC Second Wild Card (Sixth Seed Overall).

Every year (or so it seems), some team blindly / drunkenly / stonedly (is that a word?) / by the skin of its' ass, sneaks into the playoffs, by literally losing their way into them.  The Titans did it last year, losing three of four.  I have two of them doing it this year, one being the Jags.

I have the Jaguars losing three of their last four, and five of their last seven, yet never really being in danger of missing the playoffs (I have the Jags clinching at least a wild card berth in Week Fifteen).

Still, in the AFC, where I have exactly six squads with a winning record, don't sleep on anyone.  Anyone can win this thing, save for the Ravens and probably the Jets.

Tier Three: The Second Place Finishers.

16. Miami Dolphins (AFC East).
Projected Record: 7-9-0 Overall / 3-3-0 Division / 6-6-0 Conference.

Someone in this sh*ttacular division has to finish second.

15. Pittsburgh Steelers (AFC Norris).
Projected Record: 8-8-0 Overall / 4-2-0 Division / 6-6-0 Conference.

And this is the third team everyone is hyping, that I don't get the hype for.

I just don't see it.  They lose a rock solid offensive coordinator, (al michaels voice) Ben is a year older, LeVeon Bell is holding out, Ryan Shazier can inspire but he can't tackle, and ... I mean, should I go on?

These guys remind me of the 2004 Chiefs, the 2010 Chargers, the 2017 Cowboys -- teams with the talent to make the playoffs, that for a variety of reasons, fail to get there.  (Also, teams that indefensibly sh*t the bed at home in the Divisional Round, the year before.  Those are the teams that tend to regress the following season.  Probably because they're as hung over as I usually am, after a Chiefs "how the hell did this happen?" defeat in January.)

14. oakland raiders (AFC West).
Projected Record: 8-8-0 Overall / 3-3-0 Division / 8-4-0 Conference.

raiders finish ahead of those people via head to head sweep.

I also have the raiders in complete and total control of their own destiny, entering Week Sixteen.  Win out and they're in.  I project they won't.  Which means they're the first team out in the AFC, via tiebreakers that I refuse to try to re-run.  (When you have a five way clusterf*ck at 8-8, and strength of victory starts getting tossed around, it's time to call it a day.)

13. Carolina Panthers (NFC South).
Projected Record: 9-7-0 Overall / 3-3-0 Division / 6-6-0 Conference.

I project the finale at New Orleans to not only be a "win and you're in" scenario for both teams, I project that it's a "win and you're the division champs, lose and you miss the playoffs entirely" scenario for both teams.

(My way of saying, I project NBC to flex this one, into the final Sunday night slot.)

A de-facto playoff game to end the season between two hated rivals, who just met in the playoffs last year.

I love this sport sometimes.

12. Green Bay Packers (NFC Norris).
Projected Record: 10-6-0 Overall / 3-3-0 Division / 6-6-0 Conference.

No, I do not have the Green Bay Packers in the playoffs, although in this case, it is entirely their own fault.  I have them losing head to head to both wild card teams (which eliminates them, if I read the tiebreaker rules correctly, in a three way tie between teams in three different divisions), and I have the Lions with a better conference record, which costs them the division (again, if I read the tiebreaker rules right, and after doing this schedule run across parts of three days, I'm not re-reading them until December).

I also want to get on record that Mike McCarthy will be the stunning "whoa!  Dude got sh*t canned!" firing come December 31st.

11. Houston Texans (AFC South).
Projected Record: 9-7-0 Overall / 3-3-0 Division / 7-5-0 Conference.
Postseason: AFC First Wild Card (Fifth Seed Overall).

Texans earn tiebreaker over the Jaguars via conference record.

I have the Texans winning five of their last six to get in (the sole defeat being at Philly).  And all I can say, is that if the Texans get in on a hot streak, with Deshaun Watson fully healthy under center, look out, AFC playoff bracket.  Look out.

10. Seattle Seahawks (NFC West).
Projected Record: 10-6-0 Overall / 4-2-0 Division / 7-5-0 Conference.
Postseason: NFC Second Wild Card (Sixth Seed Overall).

I have the Seahawks at 6-5 after a defeat in Carolina.  They have four of their last five at home (the roadie is at the 49ers).  My way of saying, if the Seahawks are 6-5 entering Week Thirteen, they're going to get to ten wins, and ten wins coupled with the tiebreakers I envision them having (Green Bay and Dallas both travel to Seattle earlier in the season) get them in.  Barely.

One last gasp for these guys.

I don't project it's going to last long.

9. Washington Redskins (NFC East).
Projected Record: 10-6-0 Overall / 3-3-0 Division / 8-4-0 Conference.
Postseason: NFC First Wild Card (Fifth Seed Overall).

Say what you want about "Sir" Alex Smith, but the bottom line is that in his time in Kansas City, he averaged 10 wins a season, made the playoffs four out of five years (winning two division titles), and the year the Chiefs missed the postseason, they missed it on tiebreakers.

Why would you expect anything else, because he goes from one reasonably solid roster to another?  I don't.  The Redskins know what they're trading for.  Given that fanbase's expectations, this probably won't end well, but at least it won't begin as a dumpster fire.

Tier Four: The Division Champions.

8. Cincinnati Bengals (AFC Norris).
Projected Record: 9-7-0 Overall / 4-2-0 Division / 7-5-0 Conference.
Postseason: NFC Norris Champions (Fourth Seed Overall).

I have the Bengals at 9-3, at least two games clear of every other projected AFC Division leader, entering Week Fourteen.

I think we can all guess, how this is going to end.

Your AFC Norris Schedule Run:

7. New Orleans Saints (NFC South).
Projected Record: 9-7-0 Overall / 3-3-0 Division / 7-5-0 Conference.
Postseason: NFC South Champions (Fourth Seed Overall).

Saints earn tiebreaker over Panthers via conference record.

I probably have them a win or two too low, to be honest, and probably a seed or two too low as well, but good teams don't give a damn about their seed.  They only care about being a seed, to ensure a game or four in January. 

And the Saints?  Are a damned good team.

Your NFC South Schedule Run:

6. Detroit Lions (NFC Norris).
Projected Record: 10-6-0 Overall / 3-3-0 Division / 7-5-0 Conference.
Postseason: NFC Norris Champions (Third Seed Overall).

Lions win tiebreaker over the Packers via conference record.

Since I have nothing to add, your NFC Norris Schedule Run:

5. Kansas City Chiefs (AFC West).
Projected Record: 10-6-0 Overall / 5-1-0 Division / 8-4-0 Conference.
Postseason: AFC West Champions (Third Seed Overall).

In the interest of full disclosure, I am a Chiefs Season Ticket Member.  (Section 132 Represent!)  So if you want to yell that the schedule run was rigged?  Feel free; nobody's stopping you.

(Or disagreeing with you.)

But also, in the interest of fairness and honesty, if the "Super" Chargers implode early (as they always do), what other outcome is there for the AFC West?  I mean sh*t, we did everything but shove the division into the raiders and "Super" Chargers laps last year.  The Chiefs dropped five of six, fell into a three way tie at 6-6 with four weeks left, with the raiders and Chargers coming to Arrowhead, where the Chiefs had lost two straight and three of four.  We did everything short of waving the white flag, and no other team could step into the void!  (The Chiefs pounded the raiders and Chargers, to effectively clinch the division, with two weeks to play.)

Do you think those people are getting to ten wins?  I had to stretch to get them to eight!  Do you think the raiders are getting to ten wins?  I have them at 5-7 with four to play, and before you note the "yeah, but they can beat the Chiefs at home", do I have to go there?  I guess I do.

"Fat" Andy Reid coming off a bye week?  Is damned near unbeatable.

(He's won his last four exiting a bye, and is 14-3 career the week after the bye.)

Our bye week falls?

The week before the trip to the Bay.

Until I see evidence that one of these other three pretenders is ready to get serious about challenging for the division, the default is your two time defending champ.

Soon to be three time defending champ.

Your AFC West Schedule Run:

4. Dallas Cowboys (NFC East).
Projected Record: 10-6-0 Overall / 4-2-0 Division / 8-4-0 Conference.
Postseason: NFC East Champions (Second Overall Seed).

Cowboys win tiebreaker over Redskins via divisional record.

And here's where one Week One projection -- Cowboys over Panthers -- altered everything in the NFC.

The Cowboys win gives them the two seed and a bye; keeps the Packers out of the playoffs entirely, hands the NFC South to New Orleans, and knocks the Panthers out of the playoffs entirely.

A Carolina win?  Gives the Redskins the NFC East and the two seed (I project the Redskins beat the Panthers in Week Six), the Panthers the NFC South and the three seed, and gets the Packers into the playoffs as the six seed.

My head hurts.  Here's your NFC East Schedule Run:

3. New England Patriots (AFC East).
Projected Record: 10-6-0 Overall / 4-2-0 Division / 8-4-0 Conference.
Postseason: AFC East Champions (Second Seed Overall).

Patriots win tiebreaker over Chiefs for second seed via Week Six victory.

I think this is the year New England finally regresses to the mean ... but come on.  That division is so f*cking awful 6-10 might win it by two games.

Your AFC East Schedule Run:

2. Tennessee Titans (AFC South).
Projected Record: 11-5-0 Overall / 3-3-0 Division / 8-4-0 Conference.
Postseason: AFC South Champions (First Seed Overall).

I'm probably more stunned than you.

Your AFC South Schedule Run:

1. Los Angeles Rams (NFC West).
Projected Record: 11-5-0 Overall / 4-2-0 Division / 8-4-0 Conference.
Postseason: NFC West Champions (First Seed Overall).

I am not even remotely surprised by this.  If anything, I'm stunned the Rams topped out at only eleven wins.  To say I'm high on this team, is about as grouse an understatement as noting I went through my 20s drunk, my 30s stoned, and I'm paying for my 20s and 30s in my 40s.

Your NFC West Schedule Run:

Finally ...

Tier Five: The Postseason.

Wild Card Round.

* Saturday, January 5, 2019, 3:30pm CT (ESPN / ABC):
5 Houston Texans 31, at 4 Cincinnati Bengals 21.

You betting on the Bengals to win in the postseason?  Because I've been there, done that, and refuse to do it again.

* Saturday, January 5, 2019, 7:30pm CT (NBC):
6 Seattle Seahawks 27, at 3 Detroit Lions 41.

Holy hell, Detroit itself might burn to the ground if this result happens.  #riotaway

* Sunday, January 6, 2019, noon CT (FOX):
5 Washington Redskins 13, at 4 New Orleans Saints 34.

It was fun while it lasted, 'Skins.

* Sunday, January 6, 2019, 3:30pm CT (CBS):
6 Jacksonville Jaguars 13, 3 Kansas City Chiefs 23.

Speaking of cities that might burn themselves to the ground because the home football team finally won a home playoff game, my home town everybody!  Just please spare Waldo, that's all I ask.  I kind of like where I live.

Divisional Round.

* Saturday, January 12, 2019, 3:30pm CT (NBC):
3 Kansas City Chiefs 27, at 2 New England Patriots 20.

If The Sanchize can win a divisional round game in Foxboro?  If Joe Freaking Flacco can win a conference championship game in Foxboro?  Then Patrick Mahomes "Of the Chiefs" can too, god*mmit.

* Saturday, January 12, 2019, 7:30pm (FOX):
4 New Orleans Saints 38, at 1 Los Angeles Rams 41 (OT).

Your de-facto Super Bowl.  And it is going to be great to watch.

* Sunday, January 13, 2019, noon CT (CBS):
5 Houston Texans 38, at 1 Tennessee Titans 31.

Watson!  Mariota!  Texans!  Titans!  Nantz!  Romo!  ONLY ... CBS!!!!!

(And about 35 million viewers drooling over every snap.)

* Sunday, January 13, 2019, 3:30pm CT (FOX):
3 Detroit Lions 14, at 2 Dallas Cowboys 31.

I guess that would avenge the 1991 Divisional Round?

Conference Championship Round.

* Sunday, January 20, 2019, 2pm CT (FOX):
2 Dallas Cowboys 27, at 1 Los Angeles Rams 34.

NFC Champions: 1 Los Angeles Rams.

* Sunday, January 20, 2019, 5:30pm CT (CBS):
5 Houston Texans 30, at 3 Kansas City Chiefs 35.

They're gonna have to rename the Sports Complex "Lake Arrowhead" once I'm done crying.

AFC Champions: 3 Kansas City Chiefs.

Super Bowl LIII.

* Sunday, February 3, 2019, 5:20pm CT (CBS).
1 Los Angeles Rams 34, 3 Kansas City Chiefs 24.

Super Bowl Champions: Los Angeles Rams.