Saturday, October 6, 2018

chiefs jaguars thought(s) and pick ...

"Raindrops?
Keep falling on my head.
And just like the guy
Whose feet are too big for his bed?

Nothing seems to fit.
Those raindrops are falling
On my head --
They keep falling.

So I just did me
Some talking to the sun.
And I said I didn't like
The way he got things done;

Sleeping on the job.
Those raindrops are falling
On my head --
They keep falling.

But there's one thing?
I know --
The blues they send to meet me?
Won't defeat me!

It won't be long?
Til happiness?
Steps up?
To greet me!

Raindrops?
Keep falling on my head.
But that doesn't mean my eyes
Will soon be turning red!

Crying's not for me
Cause I'm never gonna
Stop the rain
By complaining

Because I'm free --
Nothing's worrying me! ..."

-- "Raindrops Keep Falling on My Head" by BJ Thomas.

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Picking The Chiefs This Season:

Straight Up: 4-0-0.
Against the Spread: 4-0-0.
Upset / Week: 1-0-0.

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I begin typing this at approximately 3:48am Kansas City time on Saturday morning.  The reason why I'm awake is quite simple: it's pouring outside.  And like a drunken idiot (shaddup!), I left the window above my bed open before falling asleep passing out last night, and go figure, now the top half of my bed is sopping wet, and the sheets are now in the dryer to, uuh, dry out.

Somehow this seems fitting, since according to every reputable local forecast, it's going to be like this for at least tailgating and the first half of tomorrow Chiefs / Jaguars showdown.

And let there be no doubt: this is a showdown, in every sense of the word.

Because the winner on Sunday, owns the inside lane, in the race to home field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs.

--------------------

Before I forget ...

The Tailgating Plans.

We're just doing burgers / brats / dogs, plus assorted side dishes.  Nothing difficult.  Given the forecast for a steady rain all day tomorrow, the easier the better.

We'll be in our usual spot (the grassy knoll just north of the G30 sign) when the gates open.  Hopefully the Good Lord Up Above will give us a 30 minute dry spat about 7:30am tomorrow, to get the tents up before it really begins dumping.  #akidcandream.

Feel free to join us.

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These next three weeks in the AFC are going to be fascinating to watch unfold.  Currently nine teams are at least .500 in the AFC.  (And somehow?  The Steelers and Texans aren't among those nine ... though I think one of them will be come October 22nd.)

There are so many showdowns that are going to have serious ramifications come December 30th, that it ... frankly, it requires a tracking sheet.  So here you go -- the next three weeks for all nine teams at .500 or better, plus the Steelers and Texans (at least one of whom is going to rally to grab a playoff berth):


The AFC is going to have some clarity to it in three weeks.

Which means the Chiefs -- despite starting at least 4-0 for the third time in six years under "Fat" Andy Reid -- have a sh*t ton of work left to do.

Beginning tomorrow.

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I'm not delivering some peppy, inspirational speech for y'all this week.  If you as a Chiefs fan cannot recognize how important this game is, then I can't help you.

I know it's supposed to rain most of the day tomorrow.  So what?  We're good for one rain game a year, at least.  And at least this time, it'll be in the 70s.  It'll feel like a sauna in the lower bowl once the rain stops.  (And if the sun comes out ... perhaps we get a second straight "Perfect Stevo Game"?)

And so ... the pick.

It's almost more important the Chiefs go 3-1 in this quarter, than that they opened at least 2-2 in the previous quarter.  Yes, going 4-0 vs 2-2 (or worse) gives us some margin for error, especially within the division.  We're two clear of every divisional rival, with two divisional road wins in hand.

But a Jags win on Sunday?  Gives them the tiebreaker.

A Patriots win next Sunday?  Gives them the tiebreaker.

A Bengals win two weeks from Sunday?  Gives them the tiebreaker.

And we still have to host Baltimore (another 3-1 squad), in early December.

The Chiefs have shown they have no problem winning or finishing second in the AFC West under "Fat" Andy Reid -- they've done it every year, resulting in 4 playoff berths in 5 years (and missing the playoffs on tiebreakers, they year they missed).

It's beating teams outside the division they struggle with, especially in January.

They can take a big step towards establishing credibility in that regard, on Sunday.

And next Sunday.

And the Sunday after that.

I've struggled all week on how to pick this game.  My head says the Jaguars steal this one via some late bullsh*t via a f*cked up field.  (C'mon, you didn't really expect me to go four letter word free in this post, did ya?)  My heart says this team is different than any other Chiefs team I've ever seen.  That you can't go with your head, you can't go with what your eyes see.  You just have to believe.

* at Chiefs (-3) 31, Jaguars 23.

Hope to see y'all tomorrow ...

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