Thursday, October 11, 2018

week six: is the wait (almost) over ...

"Way behind the water hole,
A little down the line?
The jungle and the plains and peaks?
Are scheduled to be mine!

I'm gonna be the ruler?
Of most everything around!
From the grandest of the mountains,
To the humble common ground!

My reign will be?
A super awesome thing!
Oh I just can't wait
To be king!

I'm gonna be a noble king;
Unscrupulously fair.
I only need a little time --
Perhaps a little hair.

I'm gonna be the mane event,
That no king was before!
I'm brushing up on looking down --
I'm working on my roar!

The fauna and the flora
Gonna swing,
'Cause I just can't wait
To be king! ..."

-- "I Just Can't Wait To Be King" by Sir Elton John.

--------------------

Last Week SU: 9-6-0.
Season to Date SU: 47-29-2.

Last Week ATS: 6-8-1.
Season to Date ATS: 40-33-5.

Last Week Upset / Week: holy hell, Batman.
Season to Date Upset / Week: 2-3-0 SU; 2-2-1 ATS.
This Week Upset / Week: keep reading.

--------------------

The Non-Jets, Non those people, Non-Chiefs Picks.

* Eagles (-3) 31, at Giants 13.
* at "Shane" Falcons (-3 1/2) 38, Bucs 24"Gordon Shumway Game O' The Week" honors.
* at Redskins (-1) 24, Panthers 13.
* Seahawks (-3) 30, raiders 20 (Game in London)"Empty Nest Game O' The Week" honors.
* at Vikings (-10) 34, "Super" Cardinals 6.
* at Bengals (-2 1/2) 31, Steelers 14.
* at Browns (+1) 17, "Super" Chargers 14 (OT).
* at Texans (-10) 45, Bills 14"Good Times Game O' The Week" honors.
* Bears (-3) 24, at Dolphins 20.
* at Titans (+2 1/2) 23, Ravens 20.
* at Cowboys (+3) 24, Jaguars 20.
* at Packers (-9 1/2) 31, 49ers 10"The Resident Is Better Than This Sh*t" honors.

The "Klassy" Kevin Keitzman Tweet O' The Week.

I'm giving Ol' Klassy a pass this week, mainly because the most inexcusable thing he's tweeted all week is confusing Milwaukee's former baseball team, with its' current one, as to which one made the NLCS.  Let's hope "K"KK gives us some material to use next week.

The Tailgating Plans.

There are no The Tailgating Plans, as this is not a game I will be in attendance for.

The Watching Party Plans.

There'll be a watching party at my Second Parents.  I'm just not sure if it will be indoors, outdoors, or both.  (The forecast here in Kansas City is, uuh, a bit wacko right now.)  The menu (as always for the Patriots) will be Brady Brats and Patty Melts, plus assorted sides and libations.

Stevo's Drink O' The Week.

If you headed out to Arrowhead last Sunday, then you know that it was (a) somewhat cold, (b) somewhat wet, and (c) somewhat miserable for tailgating.  Which made the drink of choice easy.

The Benchwarmer.

The Chiefs used to sell these inside Arrowhead in the early 2000s (note: they probably still do; I just haven't sought one out in years).  A benchwarmer is some nice frothy hot chocolate mixed with a healthy dosage of peppermint schnapps.  It is phenomenal, especially boiled on a grill during tailgating.

Give it a try; just like with most things I highly recommend in life?

Either it's totally worth it ... or just assume I'm so high, I'd try anything.

The Flashback.

C'mon gang.  Peoples and Peepettes.  There's only one game to choose for this week's The Flashback.

And that was the beauty the Chiefs and Patriots staged at Arrowhead in Week 15, 1992.

As with most things in life that are more than twenty five years passed, I'd worried I'd (bill clinton voice) misremembered the details of the day.  Unfortunately, I haven't.  Pro Football Focus confirms the day was as f*cking miserable as I recall: 40ish, brutal wind, dumping down rain.

This is the game best remembered as the one where Bill Maas infamously said the following, regarding the Chiefs chances to win:

"If we put our helmets on, we win".

Not quite, Sir William.  Because the Chiefs did their damndest that day to give the game to the Patriots.  The Pats jumped out early 7-0 on a defensive touchdown caused by the (virtually) unplayable conditions.  The Pats led 13-3 early in the 2nd quarter, 13-6 at halftime ... before the Red and Gold (no doubt motivated by one hell of a halftime speech by someone) poured it on, scoring three touchdowns on three possessions to assume control of the game, and hold on to win 27-20.

The Chiefs needed the win to keep pace with your San Diego "Super" Chargers, who had won nine out of ten to tie the Chiefs in the division standings with two games to play.  Sadly, the Chiefs would choke away the division the following Saturday in New York, losing to a god-awful Giants team in blowout fashion ... but setting up one of my absolute favorite Chiefs games of all time, to close the 1992 regular season.

We'll get to that one, two weeks from now.  And trust me, it's worth the wait.  No fan of the Red and Gold that's at least 40 years old, could fail to name the 1992 finale, in their top ten favorite games ever. 

Or as Kevin Harlan so perfectly noted: "Not even Santa Claus can save the denver broncos today!"

"Disreputable" Mexican Food Truck Update.

I got nothing.  I think that's a good thing.

NEW!  The those people Commentary and Choice.

You know, no matter how troubled times might become in the Kingdom, it's always good to know that things are far, far worse in those people land.  Their head coach is an abject f*cking retard the likes of which mankind has never known.  Their general manager (in addition to being the antichrist) is disappointed in the roster he so sh*ttacularly assembledTheir fans are demanding regime change in greater numbers as each day passes.  Regime change up to and including apollyon himself.

But above it all, stands one proud those person: Defensive End derek wolfe.  Who, love him or hate him (and we all know which one I choose), love him or hate him, is brutally, brutally honest about the state of affairs in those people land.

He's like the Brent Budowsky of those people land.

So going forward in this magical season that those people have so richly, justly, and completely earned, I intend to check in via mr. wolfe (and others) as to the true state of affairs inside the eighth layer of hell, and then enjoy the hell out of picking these ass-eaters to lose and lose big.

Let's begin with mr. wolfe's comments about his team's indwelt demonic presences fans:

"It's sad we got fans behind our bench talking sh*t, talking about how we don't play with heart and don't play as hard as we can.  Bullsh*t!  We're playing as hard as we can every single snap!"

Which, somehow, sorta kinda, contradicts mr. wolfe's own comments following last Sunday's thoroughly enjoyable gag job at the Fake Meadowlands against an awful, absolutely god-awful Jets squad going nowhere anytime soon:

"Same sh*t every week!  I'm tired of talking about the same sh*t the last two years!"

But hey, it's gonna get better, right?

* those people hold defensive players only meeting * 

Oh.  Because those players only meetings always work, right?

Jesus, I am loving this.

But let's be fair here.  Surely, like every other team in the division, those people have a quarterback under center you can envision being there three years from now, right?

Oh.  I guess not.

And it's only Week Six!  We still have eleven more weeks of the "mile high meltdown" to enjoy!

Anyway, the choice.  To me, this is simple.  There's one person who is going to decide this game ... and he ain't on those people's sideline.  Although he used to be.

Hide the women and children.  By the time "Son O' Bum" is done exacting his revenge on this worthless organization, it's gonna make General Sherman's March to the Sea look like a kid in a sandbox.

* Rams (-7) 52, at those people 0.

The Jets Prediction.

If they can't beat the Colts at home, it's going to be a long march to December.

* at Jets (-2 1/2) 24, Colts 14.

The Chiefs Pontification and Prognostication.

Picking the Chiefs This Season:

Straight Up: 5-0-0.
Against the Spread: 5-0-0.
Upset / Week (When Applicable): 1-0-0.

--------------------

(the congregation) (shifting restlessly in the second office)
(pastor stevo) (shuffling the sermon notes)
(pastor stevo) (taking a chug of something alcoholic in nature)

Let's begin.

--------------------

Earlier this week at Arrowhead Pride, one of the editors of that fine site decided to compare the 2018 Chiefs to the 2003 Chiefs using the statistics available then and now.

Why that struck me, is because I too have been thinking of comparing the 2003 Chiefs to this year's version.  Except from a different angle.

Because just like the 2003 Chiefs had their shot to dethrone "the king", and assume the throne for themselves, potentially for a generation (if not a solid five years) to come?

So too, do the 2018 Chiefs.

On Sunday night.

--------------------

Given that 2003 is (gulp) fifteen years ago, perhaps a look back at that team -- and the wackiness that the AFC entering 2003 was -- is in order. 

For starters, your division champions in 2002 were the Jets, Steelers, Titans, and raiders.  That in and of itself wasn't that surprising; the Steelers hosted the AFC Title Game the prior season, the Titans hadn't had a losing record since 1997 and had made the playoffs three of the previous four seasons, the Jets hadn't had a losing record since 1996 and had made the playoffs in three of the previous five seasons, and the raiders had won three straight AFC West championships.

Your wild card teams in 2002 ... well one of them was the Colts, making their third playoff appearance in four years.  The other was the Browns, making their first (and only) appearance in the playoffs as the "New Browns".  That's a bit weird.

Also weird?  A full twelve teams in the AFC went .500 or better!  No, really -- they did!  Including two entire divisions finishing .500 or better: the AFC West and AFC East ...


And as 2003 dawned, the AFC figured to be as feisty as ever.  But there was one team that had the target on its' back above all others: the defending AFC Champion ... oakland raiders.

--------------------

The 2003 season for the Chiefs started out about as well as one could have hoped.  It opened with a comfortable win over the divisional rival Chargers, then back to back blowouts against the Steelers (home) and Texans (road).  The Chiefs scored 110 points in those first three games, while the defense bent (allowing 48) but not really breaking.

And as Week Three ended, "The King" of the AFC was ... well, struggling.  They lost the AFC Title Game rematch to the Titans to open the season in Nashville, beat the Bengals in the Black Hole, and got pole-axed at fake mile high in a Week Three prime time game.  There's no shame in any of those outcomes ... but there's nothing to be proud of in there either.

The 2018 season for the Chiefs has started about as well as one could have hoped.  It opened with a comfortable win over the divisional rival Chargers, then a near-blowout against the Steelers (road) and an obliteration of the 49ers (home).  The Chiefs scored 118 points in those first three games, while the defense bent mightily (allowing 92 points) ... yet never breaking.

There is one difference between the two squads though.

The 2018 Chiefs never trailed through the first weeks of the season.

The 2003 Chiefs did -- for over 22 minutes, of football action.

--------------------

Week Four.

If ever there was a "trap game", so to speak, there it was in 2003.  The Chiefs, on the road, against a Ravens team that would go on to win the AFC North that season ... on national television.

And if ever there was a "trap game", so to speak, there it was in 2018.  The Chiefs, on the road, against (IMNHO) our most hated divisional rival ... on national television.

Everyone and their brother saying this is it.  This is the moment the Chiefs tumble back down to earth.

And for three and a half quarters -- in both seasons -- everyone and their drunk Uncle Bill were 100% correct.

The Chiefs could do nothing on offense against the Ravens fifteen years ago.  The Chiefs could do nothing on offense against those people two weeks ago.

And then, "the moment".

In Baltimore fifteen years ago, it was a penalty.  A rare penalty on the kicking team, after the Ravens tied the game with barely six minutes to play, that forced a rekick of the, uuh, kickoff.

Ladies and Gentlemen, the moment the 2003 Chiefs season got real:



Against those people, it was a play that literally moved this dude to tears, to make this 2018 Chiefs season get real:



Impossibly, improbably ... 4-0.  2003.  2018.  4-0.

With a far, far bigger challenge coming next, each season.

--------------------

In 2003, that challenge was a showdown that still to this day rates amongst the greatest of days at Arrowhead. 

4-0 Kansas City hosting 4-0 those people.

Last week, that challenge was a showdown against a team many consider to be the best in the AFC at every position save one.

4-0 Kansas City hosting 3-1 Jacksonville.

In 2003, those people had already beat "The King" in their place in a nationally televised game, pounding the raiders in Week Three.

In 2018, the Jaguars had already beat "The King" in their place in a nationally televised game, pounding the Patriots in Week Two.

I suppose here is where I mention, the similarities actually end for a week, between 2003 and 2018.  The 2003 Chiefs trailed nearly all day long, needed a miraculous punt return with barely nine to play to grab a one point lead, and then held on for dear life for the ensuing nine minutes.

The 2018 Chiefs led 23-0 at halftime after Chris Jones' awesome touchdown pick, and were never seriously threatened most of the day.

But still, at the end of the day, each version of the Chiefs stood at 5-0, the last unbeaten in the NFL ... and making apologies for that fact, to nobody.

--------------------

And so here we are.  The Showdown with "The King" of the Conference.

The 2003 Chiefs had to survive one more game before getting their shot at the defending conference champs ... and "survive" is a misnomer.  They had to stage a comeback for the ages.  Trailing 34-17 with barely eight minutes to play, the Chiefs scored the final 23 points, including a touchdown in overtime to Johnny Morton, to somehow win 40-34 at Lambeau Field.

But just like the 2018 Chiefs, the 2003 Chiefs got their shot at knocking off "The King" -- on the road, in the biggest prime time game of the week.

--------------------

Knock off "The King", those 2003 Chiefs did, quite literally -- they ended Rich Gannon's career early in the second quarter, sending oakland spiraling into a lost season that ended at 4-12, saw "Sur" William Callahan fired, and saw an endless string of loser coaching and double digit loss seasons begin.  Whatever one may think of the blown opportunity that Monday Nighter in late October 2003 wound up being, there can be no doubt: the young contender took their shot at the champion, and shattered every bone in said champion's body.

And now, fifteen years later, the Chiefs have the chance to do the same thing again: end the champion's reign.

Young Simba has the chance on Sunday night to announce to the world?

That he's through waiting, to be king.

Or, more to the point -- he's done with a 40 plus year old quarterback, proclaiming himself, to be the king.

--------------------

So after all this, allow me to say four things, then make the prognostication.

1. This game is NOT going to be a blowout, either way.  I know both regular season games between "Fat" Andy and Bill Belichick in the last five years have been Chiefs obliterations of the Patriots.  That ain't happening Sunday night.  In fact, if there is going to be a blowout Sunday night, I'd wager on the Patriots, providing the whopping of proverbial ass.

2. I honestly believe, this is the only time these teams will meet this season.  Mainly because I believe these will be the top two seeds in the AFC when the dust settles, and at least one of them will sh*t the bed at home in the Divisional Round.  (For once, I pray it's not us.  Please -- just once.)

3. The key to this game will be the Chiefs ability to generate a rush on Brady without sacrificing the secondary to do it.  The Chiefs linebacking core is in worse shape than Lionel Richie after his wife caught him cheating on her back in the day.  I honestly see no way this is going to happen.  "Bulldog" Bob Sutton is going to have to gamble with safety and corner blitzes.  To be fair, this strategory worked big time in the last matchup, to open the 2017 season.  But the Chiefs were also playing two scores ahead most of the second half last year.  Which is point four.

4. If Dustin Colquitt punts more than five times, the Chiefs will lose.  Frankly, I'd drop the number to four, but I always try to build in the "nobody gives a sh*t" punt to end the first half to simply bleed the clock (ditto potentially in the second half as well).

The Chiefs went 5 for 5 against the 49ers in the first half.  Five possessions, five touchdowns.  They were up 14-0 on the Chargers barely two minutes into the game.  Jacksonville was down 23-0 before the rain stopped last week.  Even the Steelers were down 21-0 and a gratuitous holding call away from being down 28-0 before the first quarter was over.

The ONLY game the Chiefs have struggled to bury their opponent early, was the game against those people ... and go figure, it's the only game they've trailed in.

--------------------

Sunday night, the Chiefs king-in-waiting has one hell of a golden opportunity, to shorten the waiting period before he takes the throne.  Just like Trent Green had fifteen years ago.

Fifteen years ago, the Chiefs were the best offense in football, led by the brightest offensive mind the sport had to offer.  Just like the Chiefs of today.

Sunday night, a Chiefs defense that couldn't stop a quadrapalegic from scoring takes the field.  Just like the Chiefs of fifteen years ago.

Forgotten about that Chiefs victory fifteen years ago?

Is that the 32 Defense held, on the final play of the game, to get the Chiefs to 7-0, via a last second goalline stand to emerge victorious at 17-10.

What I don't think will be forgotten anytime soon about Sunday night?

Is that the Chiefs defense, isn't going to be on the field, when the game is decided.

Or as Sir Elton John put it best, pushing (gulp) 25 years ago:

"The time has come, as some have said,
To talk of many things.
That may be true, but I would rather
Stick to talking kings!

It's easy to be royal,
If you're already leoline.
'Cause it isn't just my right --
Even my left?  Will be divine!

The (Kingdom) is waiting
To go zing?
Oh I just can't wait
To be king!

I just can't wait?
To be king!!!!!!"

Your Upset O' The Week?

(stevo sighing in disgust voice) Take a mother f*cking guess.

* Chiefs (+3 1/2) 41, at Patriots 38, via a Patrick Mahomes "Of The Chiefs" touchdown pass to Demetrius Harris, as time expires.

This is gonna be fun folks.  And it's only about to get funner ...

No comments:

week twelve picks

The Statisticals. Last Week SU: 8-6-0. Season to Date SU: 98-62-1. Last Week ATS: 7-7-0. Season to Date ATS: 75-80-6. Last Week Upset / ...