Showing posts with label the week seven predictions. Show all posts
Showing posts with label the week seven predictions. Show all posts

Thursday, October 18, 2018

week seven: primetime at terrorhead ...

"I know it's late.
I know you're weary.
I know your plans?
Don't include me.

Still here we are.
Both of us lonely.
Longing for shelter?
From all that we see.

Why should we worry?
No one will care, girl!
Look at the stars?
So far away!

We've got tonight.
Who needs tomorrow?
We've got tonight, babe --
Why don't you stay?

Deep in my soul?
I've been so lonely.
All of my hopes?
Fading away.

I've longed for love,
Like everyone else does.
I know I'll keep searching,
Even after today.

So there it is girl --
I've seen it all now!
And here we are babe --
What do you say?

We've got tonight.
Who needs tomorrow?
We've got tonight, babe --
Why don't you stay? ..."

-- "We've Got Tonight" by Bob Seger and the Silver Bullet Band.

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Last Week SU: 10-5-0.
Season to Date SU: 57-34-2.

Last Week ATS: 7-7-1.
Season to Date ATS: 47-40-6.

Last Week Upset / Week: it covered.
Season to Date Upset / Week: 2-4-0 SU; 3-2-1 ATS.
This Week Upset / Week: Bears (+3) over Patriots.

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The Non-Jets, Non-those people, Non-Chiefs Picks.

* Titans (+6 1/2) 31, vs "Super" Chargers 27 (Game in London).
* at Bears (+3) 27, Patriots 13.
* Browns (+3) 28, at Bucs 24.  "Good Times Game O' The Week" honors.
* Lions (NL) 34, at Dolphins 24.
* at Eagles (-5) 45, Panthers 13.
* at Colts 20, Bills (+7 1/2) 14.  "Gordon Shumway Game O' The Week" honors.
* Texans (+5 1/2) 30, at Jaguars 27 (OT).
* Saints (+2 1/2) 28, at Ravens 13.
* at Redskins (-1 1/2) 38, Cowboys 31.
* Rams 27, at 49ers (+9 1/2) 21.
* at "Shane" Falcons (-5 1/2) 52, Giants 0.  "Empty Nest Game O' The Week" honors.

The "Klassy" Kevin Keitzman Tweet O' The Week.


Wow.  Where to begin ... other than noting, this is an exercise in futility.  As "The Voice of Reason" would note: "you cannot reason with people, that don't have any reason".

(Which begs the obvious: how the f*ck do he and I, uuh, reason with each other?  We all know I ain't all here.)

Anyways ...

Starting at the bottom (meaning the bottom tweet is 1, then the next to bottom is 2, and so on ...):

1. He's right.  This is the rarest of sporting events, that not only meets -- and exceeds -- the hype, but knocks said hype to (reggie jackson voice) second f*cking base.

2. He's somewhat right.  Yes, the Chiefs SHOULD have let the Patriots score a touchdown on that final drive.  But what Ol' Kev, The Klassy One, Ol' "K"KK is conveniently ignoring?

Is that the Patriots are coached well enough, to know NOT to score in that situation.  If we give them the obvious score?  They'll stop at the one, fall down, bleed the clock, and end the game exactly as it, uuh, ended: via a field goal for the margin of victory.

3. See 2.

4. We're coming back to this later on.

5. OK, enough is enough, Ol' Klassy.

The Eagles scored the game winning touchdown with 2:25 to play in the Super Bowl (the toss to Zach Ertz).  After going (and failing) for two, the Eagles led 38-33.  With 2:25 to play.  And a timeout still in hand, plus the two minute warning.

The Eagles essentially put the Patriots in the same godd*mned place the Chiefs did on Sunday night!  I will grant you it is slightly different; the Eagles had a lead whereas the Chiefs were tied.  But the situation is the same: a Patriots team, needing to score, inside of three minutes, is given the ball back after the opposition scores.

But in reality?  There is no difference!  Yet because the Eagles held (in fact, they held twice -- forcing a fumble and tacking on a field goal, then stopping the Patriots as time expired to win by eight), and the Chiefs didn't, that somehow makes the same f*cking strategory wrong for the Chiefs and right for the Eagles?  This is insanity!  It's the same damned plan, "K"KK!  If you're going to question the strategory, fine, go for it, "Konfident" Kev.

(For the record, I'd have done what the Chiefs did, for one reason: you're not guaranteed to score.  If it was 40-40 when Tyreek breaks it, maybe go down at the one and know you're getting three and the lead no matter what ... but trailing 33-40, you HAVE to take the points.  Period.)

6. I do have to concede this: if anyone in our fine metropolitan area knows about "going for two", it's all around family man "Kon Artist" Keitz.  #youmaypullyourpantsupnow

Again -- we're coming back to 4, before the weekend is over, via a "Tale O' The Tape".  Stay tuned.

The Watching Party Plans.

There are no The Watching Party Plans, as this is a Chiefs game I will be attending in person.

The Tailgating Plans.

The Bus is planning to depart right at noon on Sunday.  I know the STM Email says gates open at 2:30, but come on.  It's going to be 65 and sunny on Sunday.  Those bad boys are opening by 1:30 at the latest.

(Also, as I learned from my "highly placed source speaking on condition of anonymity", the man named "Rufus", a few weeks ago: once you see the gate attendants arrive, it will be 30 minutes or less before the gates open.  I predict we see gate people no later than 1:15pm Sunday.)

The menu is a taco / nacho bar, with some beans, rice, and probably corn as the sides.  (Feel free to contribute if you're joining us.)

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Friday 10/19 5:51am: we have an update!  The menu has changed!  Instead we are doing Bengal Brats via request from a few tailgating friends, plus assorted side dishes and desserts.  Which means (in addition to jello shots), I might as well haul out the jalapeno poppers for Sunday.  So much for the dream of not standing over a grill for a couple hours just once twice this season.  Hopefully this time there's at least one left for me:


(I made 146 of these things for the 49ers game.  They were gone before they even reached the food table.  Image credit: me, via my iPhone 8 something.) 

--------------------

Also, rumor has it that the second best maker of jello shots ever is coming out of retirement for this one.  Again, it's just a rumor.  (A rumor extremely dependent upon Amazon's delivery of the serving cups arriving at the Casa de Stevo by tomorrow night as scheduled.)

If you're planning to tailgate with us, spectacular!  Anyone and everyone is welcome!  However, due to the newbies tailgating straight west of us, we ask that you park in the actual Lot G parking across from our tailgating spot (or wherever you'd prefer), to keep as much space opened up as possible for the fun things in life.  Like beer pong.  Definitely beer pong.

See ya Sunday.

The Flashback.

Earlier this week, Arrowhead Pride asked its' followers on Twitter to, uuh, tweet, their favorite prime time game at Arrowhead * .

And there are some incredible, awe inspiring choices to, uuh, choose from.  But in my opinion, there is only one choice that should win, and that is every bleeping second of Monday, October 7, 1991.  If you're under the age of 35, you probably wouldn't understand why.  If you're over the age of 35, you're nodding in agreement with my selection.

Because if you're over the age of 35, you understand just how improbable, just how unimaginable, hosting a Monday Night Football game was.

Because if you're under the age of 35, you cannot possibly comprehend, just how very much imaginable, Monday, October 7, 1991 never happening, was.

Which is why this week's The Flashback is a flashback to thirty years ago, to one of those "what are the f*cking odds" upsets some also-ran always seems to spring in the last four, five, six weeks, over a credible title contender.

On November 13, 1988 (Week Eleven of the 1988 season), the Chiefs sprung one of those upset, over the soon-to-be AFC Champion Cincinnati Bengals, 31-28 at Arrowhead.  The Chiefs entered the game 1-8-1 ** .  They were going nowhere fast.  They had one playoff berth to show for their last eighteen years, and they promptly lost that game by three touchdowns to a team coming in on a five game losing streak.

That bastion of accuracy known as Wikipedia reports that nearly 34,000 fans were in the stands that day.  I can tell you, that as usual, Wikipedia is shown to be a purveyor of "fake news".  I know this, because I was in the stands that day, and there is a better chance of me going to bed sober tonight, than there is of 34,000 fans being inside of Arrowhead that day.

Thankfully, no matter what the attendance that day was, one person definitely was in attendance.  A man by the name of Carl Peterson.  I have no idea what the hell he saw in this franchise on that day.  (Maybe Carl was as hammered as most fans in the stands were.)  But whatever it is he saw, triggered in him the desire to accept the responsibility of once again attempting to rebuild the most poorly run franchise in the sport.

It is not an exaggeration, an understatement, or a bullsh*t proclamation, to note that had the Chiefs not shown something that day against the Bengals, to convince Mr. Peterson to come to Kansas City, that the Chiefs would not be playing here on Sunday night.

Oh, they might be playing, but it wouldn't be at Arrowhead.

That one upset thirty years ago, that led three years later to the greatest party Arrowhead has ever thrown (at least until January), is why we're showing up on Sunday, thirty years later, to face the Bengals.

Because trust me kids: whatever you may think of Carl Peterson?

He's damned near the sole and only reason, you're watching Chiefs football on Sunday night, whether on your television or (hopefully) with me inside of Arrowhead.

Him, and Marty.

Never forget that.

(*: I hate that they limited it to home prime time games.  Because two of my three favorites (Chiefs at Ravens 2004, Chiefs at those people 1994), and three of my top seven (Chiefs at those people 2016), and four of my top ten (Chiefs at raiders 1997), are roadies.  So, to stay true to the rules of this exercise in Twitter nonsense ... in reverse order, here are my ten favorite home prime time games of my life then.  10: Steelers at Chiefs 1997 (Marcus Allen throws the winning TD); 9: "Super" Chargers at Chiefs 2010 (Tuesday Morning Football); 8: Oilers at Chiefs 1995 (for you, the third Amen Corner finish of 1995, for me, the Beatles game); 7: Vikings at Chiefs 1999 (DT's last epic game, against (go figure) Jeff George); 6: "Super" Chargers at Chiefs 1995 (Vanover's OT punt return); 5: those people at Chiefs 2016 (Dontari Poe's TD Pass); 4: Seahawks at Chiefs 2000 (Where Stevo and Friends Meet Ed "Sweet Jesus" Hochuli ... to say nothing of one of the funniest MNF broadcast moments ever ("It Wasn't Me!")); 3: Steelers at Chiefs 2016 Divisional Round (I know it's a loss, but come on -- playoff football in prime time!); 2: "Super" Chargers at Chiefs 2011 (The Phumble); 1: Bills at Chiefs 1991 (for you Civil War buffs like me, this was the Glendale of my Chiefs fandom -- aka "the one moment an impossible dream, actually seemed possible).)

(**: the similarities between the 1988 Chiefs and 2008 Chiefs are frightening, to be honest.)

Stevo's Drink O' The Week.

I had a birthday brunch for my sister in law on Sunday, and any brunch / lunch / dinner / what the hell, we're all here get together in my family means there will be adult beverages involved.

And go figure, the person who it always falls to, to pick up said adult beverages?

Is me.

(In my defense ... I can't cook, so it makes sense.)

This week's libation -- which I am enjoying another bottle of right now -- is Yellow Tail Moscato.  I'm not much of a white wine person usually (unless it's Pinot Grigio), but the Yellow Tail Moscato is not half bad.  Especially when chilled to pushing forty degrees.

Give it a try!

(Note: currently on sale at Harry's (the Missouri side Price Chopper liquor department) for $8.99 for the 1.75ml bottle.  That's a f*cking steal, boys and girls.  A f*cking steal.)

The those people Commentary and Choice.

I loved von miller's quote this week, regarding tonight's old-school 007 slapper fight in the desert, between those people and the Arizona "Super" Cardinals.

"We're going to kick their ass!"

Aw, von.  That's so adorable.

Because no son.  No, you're not.  They're going to whip yours all the way back to your green-friendly city.

* at "Super" Cardinals (+1) 43, those people 13.

The Jets Prediction.

* at Jets (+3) 34, Vikings 20.

"Disreputable" Mexican Food Truck Update.

(stevo exhaling deeply ...)

So, I moved to South Waldo *** almost three years ago now.  (Damn, time flies sometimes.)  My first fall / winter here wasn't too bad.  Last year, we had five -- five! -- freaking water main breaks in the span of about two months, and thanks to the weird ass winter we had, all KCMO Public Works' finest could do was plug the leak, dump a ton of rock into the hole, and wait for spring to repave.  Fine, so be it.  Sh*t happens.

But then came Monday.

When this greeted me, as I headed out of the Price Chopper strip mall for the couple block walk home:


(84th Street, headed west towards (old school collection dude voice) the Kansas side.  Image credit: me, via my iPhone 8 something.)

I mean, are you kidding me?  Smoke thicker than it will be at Terrorhead on Sunday from all the dust one freaking car is kicking up?  An entire side of 84th (the side with homes on it to boot!) completely unusable due to digging the trench?

And as if that isn't fantastic enough?  The hidden jewel of South Waldo is Sunnyside Park.  It is an amazing park.  It almost justifies the ridiculously high rent prices down here.  (Emphasis on "almost".)  Every night, when I go jogging on the trail, you run into flag football teams practicing, baseball and softball teams practicing, 3 on 3 pickup games on the court, a few folks testing out the tennis courts.  In the summer, there's a water play area for the kids.  It's also very dog friendly.

This is what it looks like tonight:


(If you look really, really hard, near the back center of the picture, you can see a baseball team practicing, on the only one of three fields currently open for play.  Image credit: me, via my iPhone 8 something.)

Something tells me, Year Tres down here, ain't gonna be as "water and sewer friendly", as Years Uno and Dos were.  And Year Dos wasn't exactly something to brag about.

(***: I get that it is officially called West Waldo.  Except it's not.  It's South Waldo.)

The Chiefs Pontification and Prognostication.

--------------------

Picking The Chiefs This Season:

Straight Up: 5-1-0.
Against the Spread: 6-0-0.
Upset / Week (When Applicable): 1-1-0 SU; 2-0-0 ATS.

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I wish I had something jazzy, snazzy, classy, to throw out there for you.

Except I don't.

I've had a long week at work with quarter end, and I don't really get a comedown from that ending on Tuesday; I leave for San Antonio a week from today for a wedding that I am catching a 5:07am flight home on next Sunday to return from, in order to make at least half of tailgating and the entire game against those people.

And in fact, I'm actually contemplating doing something for this post next week, that I haven't done in nine years: recording it live, and broadcasting it to the masses.  (If I could figure out this Periscope thing, I might consider that next Wednesday night or Thursday morning; I don't depart for KCI until noonish next Thursday.)

I honestly don't know what to think about Sunday night.  For starters, this game terrifies me.  This game is the one I've feared will be the Chiefs annual "sh*t the bed at home" contest we stage at least once a year.  (Buffalo last year, Tampa 2016, Chicago 2015, Tennessee 2014, Pick Any One 2012, Miami 2011, oakland 2010 ... you get the point.)

The Chiefs should win this one something like 37-20.  Only we all know they won't.  Either this will be far, far closer than it should be ... or one side gets out 24-0, 27-3, and never looks back.

I guess I'll just make four notes, then make the pick.

1. If you're coming Sunday?  Be loud.  Let Patrick Mahomes "Of The Chiefs" know beyond the shadow of even the slightest of doubt, why prime time at Arrowhead, turns that place into Terrorhead.

2. This is the spot last season, that I believe derailed the season for good (even if we didn't know it yet).  5-0, facing a Super Bowl threat that we fought to a draw for 59 plus minutes, only to lose ... and then lose in prime time, on a short week, to a viable playoff threat with nothing to lose.  I do NOT want a repeat of last season.  (Especially if it means giving the Bengals what, 55 f*cking tries from the goalline with the clock expired?)

3. Don't hold it against me, if the Bengals introduce the offense, if I politely applaud Andy Dalton.  Us Horny Frogs gotta stick together.

Finally ...

4. This weekend holds a lot of sentimental value to me, over a couple of events (kenny rogers) through the years.  It's part of why I picked the theme I did -- yeah, it's sappy and sentimental to the point of being f*cking ridiculous ... but isn't that what I am 92.47% of the time?  (Also, it referenced night time sh*t, and I can only go to "In The Air Tonight" so many times before that well runs dry, as a theme for prime time.)

None of the events that make this weekend matter to me are necessarily positive, so all I ask is that if I seem a bit out of it, or down, or less than my usual jovial self, just roll with it.

Because at least we've got tonight.

It's more than the reasons I mourn this weekend, can say.  And godd*mmit, that hurts like a mo fo.

* at Chiefs (-6 1/2) 45, Bengals 20.

See ya when the gates open Sunday!

Oh, and coming (probably) tomorrow: the "Tale O' The Tape" -- what is "Fat" Andy's Worst Playoff Defeat, as Chiefs head coach?

Hey?  If "Konfident" Kev posts the question, the least I can do, is try to answer it ...

Friday, October 18, 2013

week seven: the memory lives again ...

“Heavy rings on fingers fade.
Another star denies the grave.
See the nowhere crowd,
Cry the nowhere tears of honor.

Like twisted vines that grow?
Hide and swallow mansions whole?
And dim the light of
A faded prima donna.

Fortune, fame?  Mirror vane?
Gone insane!
Fortune, fame?  Mirror vane?
Gone insane –
But the memory remains …

Heavy rings on cigarettes,
Up to lips that time forgets,
While the Hollywood sun
Sets behind your back.

And can’t the band play on?
Just listen – they play my song!
Ash to ash, dust to dust,
Fade to black …

Fortune, fame?  Mirror vane?
Gone insane!
Fortune, fame?  Mirror vane?
Gone insane?
Dance, little tin goddess! …”


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Is it really week seven already?  Really?  Huh.  I guess time really does fly by when you're having fun ...

Last Week ATS: 8-7-0.
Season to Date ATS: 41-49-2.

Last Week SU: 8-7-0.
Season to Date SU: 52-40-0.

The Voice of Reason Last Week ATS: 9-6-0.
The Voice of Reason Season to Date ATS: 40-49-3.

(Note: Mr. Reason does not pick straight up winners.)

"Screw You Pete King" Last Week Upset / Week: Good.  Freaking.  Lord.  That's two straight weeks my upset pick loses on a late field goal.  This is getting ridiculous.
"Screw You Pete King" Season to Date Upset / Week: 1-7.
This Week's "Screw You Pete King" Upset / Week: Cowboys (+3) over Eagles.

The Non-Chiefs, Non-Jets Best Guesses:

(Note: as always, all lines pulled from Danny Sheridan via USA Today.)

* Seahawks 24, at Cardinals (+6) 21.  Good grief, I'm hauling out the "Gordon Shumway Game O' The Week" right off the bat.  That can't be a good sign.

* at Falcons (-7) 31, Bucs 3.  Your Shane "Falco"ns next three?  Home against Tampa, at Arizona, at Carolina.  Let's just say, I can absolutely envision a 4-4 Falcons team hosting Seattle in the playoff rematch four weeks from now.  To quote from "The Voice of Reason"'s favorite football quotation: "The Falcons Christmas goose isn't cooked quite yet!"

* Rams (+6) 27, at Panthers 17.  Speaking of teams whose Christmas goose isn't reaching a roasting point yet, your St. Louis Rams, everyone!  A very winnable roadie at Carolina to get over .500, with Seattle coming to the Dome next Monday night.

* at Lions (-1) 31, Bengals 27.  An intriguing inter-conference matchup between two squads used to being their respective division's doormat. 

* Chargers (-7 1/2) 45, at Jaguars 13.  Your "Good Times Game O' The Week"!!! 

* at Dolphins (-7 1/2) 38, Bills 24.  Unlike last year's late December matchup, this game won't determine which of these two squads the Chiefs will pay a visit to next year.  We're visiting both (and hosting the Patriots and Jets). 

* Cowboys (+3) 41, at Eagles 34.  The winner here grabs control of the NFC East race.  When in doubt between two underachieving squads, take the one with the better quarterback.

* Bears (pick) 24, at Redskins 21.  Unfortunately for 'Skins fans, your Christmas goose is cooked.  You're 1-4.  You likely will only be favored one more time this season (versus the Chargers in three weeks).  You still have the 49ers, Chiefs, and Cowboys on the home schedule, and you still have next week's visit to fake mile high, plus roadies at the Giants, Falcons, and Eagles to navigate.  You can do more than stick a fork in this bird; you can haul out the carving knife and start hacking.

* 49ers (-4) 31, at Titans 13.  If the 49ers are as good as I think they are (and I picked them to win the National Football Conference), they win this game comfortably.

* at Packers (-10) 38, Browns 20.  My Lord, this is a wretched matchup.  (Pause).  Yup, got to.  Your "Webster Game O' The Week"!!!

* at Steelers (-1) 26, Ravens 24.  Only one team in NFL history has rallied from 0-4 to reach the postseason -- your 1992 San Diego "Super" Chargers.  Your 2013 Pittsburgh Steelers have the talent -- and the favorable schedule -- to become the second.

* at Colts (+6 1/2) 45, my little ponies 42.  As great a game as denver / Dallas was (and it was so riveting, that everyone in the ICU area of Shawnee Mission was glued to the TV for every second of action, despite what all of us were there for)?  This one might top it.  Rarely have I looked forward to rooting against peyton manning, and against the denver broncos, more than I am going to Sunday night.  Coming into this season, I thought denver would struggle early, before pulling away later in the season.  (In the interest of full disclosure, I picked the broncos to beat the 49ers for the Lombardi.)  Now?  I'm not so sure the script won't be flipped.  After the bye, denver goes: at Chargers / vs Chiefs / at Patriots / at Chiefs.  They also close with two straight on the road against struggling teams ... that aren't as bad as their records would indicate, in Houston and oakland.

Oh, and next week?  They host the man affectionately known as "shanarat", in his homecoming to fake mile high.  Let's hope Ol' Mike has RGIII or Kirk Cousins hurl a football at elway's head.  I'd say bowlen's, but there's not much going on inside his anymore.

* at Giants (-3 1/2) 41, Vikings 0.  When these two teams met in the 2000 NFC Title Game, the Giants won 41-0.  No reason to think that facing Josh Freeman in a hurried start, is going to make this outcome any different.

The "Klassy" Kevin Keitzman Tweet O' The Week:

After giving Ol' Klassy Kev a couple weeks off, it's time to take the gloves off once again.

Because when the Klassy One gives you material this golden to work with, it's criminite to not mine it.  It would be grouse.  It would be Zues in nature.  Right, buddy?  (zeus voice) Bark!  Bark Bark!

Here's this week's "Klassy" Kevin Keitzman "Tweet O' The Week", followed by my reaction:



1. Is this a joke?  No, really -- is this a joke? 

2. Who actually would be motivated to buy a pie, based on Klassy Kev's mom selling it to them?  No, really -- who is scrolling through their Twitter feed, sees Ol' Kev pimping Tippin's pies, and thinks "you know, that's a good price, but I think I'll pas -- holy sh*t!  I can meet the woman who gave birth to the Klassy One?  Suh-weet!  Hen House here I come!"

3. Who the hell makes a bet with anyone, let alone their mother, that requires the loser to pimp pies in a Hen House?  I mean, I've made some crazy bets in my day.  Something about a pencil, geometry class, and "Andrea!"  But for God's sake.  Not even I have ever bet someone, let alone my mom, where the loser had to become a pie salesman for an afternoon.

4. Speaking of bets -- I'm laying even odds there was no bet involved.  I'll take "Planned Radio Promo Stop for $800, Alex".  I mean, give me a break.  The pies just CONVENIENTLY are priced to coincide with your station's broadcast frequency, they just CONVENIENTLY are being hawked at a major sponsor of your station, and you just CONVENIENTLY, in a "what are the f*cking odds" coincidence of a lifetime, happened to lose a bet to your mom, where the loser has to sell those conveniently prices pies, at that conveniently chosen location, for losing said bet?

In the words of the great George Strait: "if you'll buy that?  I'll throw the Golden Gate in free!"

But folks?  Hang on, let me do this properly.  Mr. Vice President, would you like to read from a prepared statement?  You would?  Spectacular!  The floor is yours, my good sir!

(vice president biden voice) Folks!  What if this Tweet is written in code?  A three letter word -- code!

Thank you sir.  And may I say, bringing four tins of craptacular small muffins for 3,000 EPA workers?  Really makes civil servants proud of the job they do for the citizens of this country.  How anyone could have cast their vote for this brain-dead moron and his utterly inept boss, I have absolutely no idea.  You have to be eight layers of (either) blanking stupid (or) so damned selfish that you care nothing for this country.  Those are the only two excuses I'll accept.

Again, folks -- this man is literally one heartbeat away, from ruling the free world.  Even Smokey Robinson is appalled by that.  (Or at least I hope he is.)  And that is a three letter word, that I'll let our good friend, Official Stevo's Site Numero Dos Golf Commentator Mark Rolfing, describe.

(johnny miller voice) Have you seen his lie?
(mark rolfing voice) Yes.
(johnny miller voice) How is it?
(mark rolfing voice) Bad.

5. Because seriously -- anyone else thinking this is code?  Specifically:

* "Tippin's" refers to what he's going to leave behind, after he enjoys his pie.  Use your imagination, kids.

* "Pie" refers to, well, a "form of pie".  Use your imagination, kids.

* "8.10".  This one is tough, because it could go one of three ways.  Either (a) it's the price he's willing to pay for his "pie"; (b) the time he's arriving to "buy" or "eat" his "pie", or (c) the room number where the lucky lady is getting taken to Pound Town.  I lean (c), for what it's worth.  If Ricky Siglar was only willing to shell out a ten spot for his "piece of the pie", surely Ol' Kev can flash a Jackson or two.

* "Hen House".  Can go one of two ways with this.  Either (a) refers to the "holy of holies", the "promised land", the "forbidden fruit", the "vagina".  Oh, wait, that last one didn't need " "'s around it.  Or (b) refers to the location of the hookup.  You know, like how "Outback Steakhouse" refers to everyone's favorite adult entertainment establishment located in the middle of a cornfield, off of unpaved 15th Street, in unincorporated Douglas County, Kansas.

For the record, I lean (a), because of how the Tweet ends.

* "Come see me and my mom".  Hang on, let's do this properly. 

Ladies and gentlemen, Mr. Dick Clark.

(dick clark voice ... hee hee, he said "dick") "For One Hundred Thousand Dollars, here's your last subject.  GO!"
(markie post voice) A webcam.  Lubricant.
(contestant voice) Place you rub one out online!
(markie post voice) A condom.  Toys.  A friendly adult site.
(contestant voice) Place you have frisky, kinky sex online!
(markie post voice) A parked car.  Mission Hills.  An intern.
(contestant voice) Place you have sex in public!
(markie post voice) YES!  YES!
(hugs all around!!!!!!!)

* "I-29 and 64th Street".  This has to be the location.  Has to be.

So there you have it.  Either "K"KK is leaving a "tip" for some "pie" in room "810" of the "Hen House" of his "mom", and he wants you to come out and watch them at "I-29 and 64th Street", or he's hawking a defunct restaurant's pie for $8.10 in the most overpriced grocery store in the five county metropolitan area, because he lost some undisclosed bet to his mom.

You ... make the call.

(Note: in case you cannot tell, this was done in jest.  Have a sense of humor, people.)

(Note 2: in no way, shape, or form, am I confirming that I have a healthy enough working knowledge of (pick one) the casual encounters area of Craigslist / the back pages of The Pitch / the enrolled membership of "Reputable Singles Site", to "decipher the code" of this tweet.)

"The Voice of Reason"'s Reason:

First, the "Judgement Day With Judgement Ray" Adams Selections:



(God, I love the cheezy grin.  Photo: "Mr. Reason", via his iPhone.)

And Mr. Reason's picks (note: no prepared remarks were submitted for publication):

Arz +5.5 (This loss moved me to 0-7 on Thursday nights)
NE -3.5
Jax +7.5
Hou +6.5
Det -2.5
Mia -7
Wash +1
Dal +2.5
Car -6.5
Atl -6.5
Ten +3.5
Cle +10
Bal +2.5
Indy +6.5
NYG -3.5

The Poem:

Sunday in a rare
Late afternoon kickoff,
The Chiefs will attempt to not
Choke, gag, or cough.

The Texans are the opponent,
Case Keenum gets the start.
Here's betting that the Terrorhead faithful,
Lead him to commit a couple brain farts.

In the interest of time,
I'm going to keep this short.
Writing these things ain't easy;
I can accurately report.

"But then I stop,
Because I spot a car,
That might contain,
My special little star."

The first trademarked stanza,
Is not likely to occur.
But the second one -- hallelujah!
It has been confirmed.

"Then I open the program,
To see who our referee will be.
And I shout out in horror --
Sweet Jesus!  Ed Hochuli!"

Number 85 in your programs,
Number 1 in your hearts.
Be prepared to witness a boatload
Of penalties -- especially false starts.

We'll be there by 9am,
In our same bat time, place, and spot.
Feel free to stop by,
For some food, or a shot.

Here's to keeping the dream going,
To reaching seven and oh.
And to finally -- finally! -- returning,
Lamar's Trophy to its rightful home!

(c) 2013, Stevo Productions.  No Rights Reserved.  May Be Rebroadcast or Reprinted Without the Expressed, Written Consent of Major League Baseball.

The Flashback -- Chiefs vs Texans:

Believe it or not, the Texans hold a distinction that no other team in the National ... Football League, can claim.  And in this case, it is NOT a good thing.

Thirty one teams in the League, have suffered a defeat at Arrowhead Stadium, in a game that counts.

The Houston Texans never have.

They are 1-0 all time on the sacred grounds of Arrowhead, via a 27-24 victory in week three of the 2004 season, that dropped the Chiefs to 0-3, all but destroyed the high expectations entering the season ...

... and was the last game of Chiefs football at Arrowhead, as we knew it.

This is depressing me.  Let's move on.

The Jets “This Is The Blanking Season!” Prognostication:

Here’s the thing.

The Jets sit at 3-3, which is exactly as many wins, as I predicted they’d have for the entire season.

And the last seven games (all after the bye), they’ll be favored in at least five of them, and possibly six.  (The only one I see the Jets being opening dogs in, is the finale at Miami.)

The Patriots, at 5-1, their last seven, has four extremely losable games (vs broncos, at Dolphins, at Ravens, at Texans), and a fifth that won’t be easy (at Panthers).

If the Jets can do what they haven’t done in quite a long time, and hold serve at home against the Pats?

Season on.

If they lose to fall to 3-4, with a roadie to The Paul and a visit from the Saints awaiting before the bye?

They’re looking at having to win six of seven after the bye, to get into the hoped for cluster(duck) at 9-7, and having to do what only one NFL team (your 1995 Lions) has ever done before: go from 3-6 doormats, to 10-6 wildcard participant.

Roger?  Diane?  Get ready.  Stevo’s hijacking the DirecTV set on the “Chiefs Kick Gr-Ass!” bus, come noon on Sunday.

* at Jets (+3) 16, Patriots 10.

The Chiefs Prepared Remarks:

Some weeks, this thing writes itself.  As someone who wishes he’d stuck to his original career ambition (to be a journalist, a writer, someone who affects the world for good through the written word), I love when a vision hits me, and I can crank out a twenty page post in less than two hours.  (Note: I know most of you don’t believe me when I say that these things can write themselves … but they can.  My favorite post I’ve ever written – and despite it all, I still feel the same way about all involved parties, if I’m being honest – took me not even thirty minutes to compose.  And the “post” that put me on the map, “The Week Four Plea”?  Took me fifteen.)

There are times I just sit, type, and bammo, crank out something fun to read.

And then, there’s today … where I got nothing.

I literally stared at my laptop screen for three hours today, in one of the single most boring meetings ever known to mankind.  I had expected to get this thing done, and posted, by the time I got home tonight.

Instead … I got nothing.

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In some respects, this is a good thing.  I tend to be very opinionated at times, and God knows a lot of crap has (irked) me off over the last eighteen some odd months.  So if I have nothing to be upset over, that might be a good thing for once. 

And when it comes to this team?  That's definitely a good thing.

I mean, think about what the "complaints" are with one of the last two undefeateds in the League.  "We don't score enough".  When your defense doesn't allow more than 17 points in any game?  You don't have to score a lot.  Point differential is the seventh tiebreaker.  It doesn't kick in until you've endured:

* head to head.
* division record.
* common opponents.
* conference record.
* strength of victory.
* strength of schedule.

Besides, the Chiefs have scored 152 points so far this year.  Care to guess where that ranks?

2nd in the AFC.

Only denver, in our conference, has outscored the Chiefs.

Overall, the Chiefs rank 7th in points scored (not including the Seahawks points from last night), and two of the teams ahead of us in scoring (Dallas, Philadelphia), we've already beaten.

I thought I'd go back and look at the five best teams (record wise) the Chiefs have fielded in the last twenty years.  1993 (11-5, AFC West Champions), 1995 (13-3, AFC West Champions), 1997 (13-3, AFC West Champions), 2003 (13-3, AFC West Champions), 2010 (10-6, AFC West Champions).  And just for sh*ts and giggles, I'm going to toss in the other ten win season (2005), and the other three two playoff seasons from the last twenty years (1994, 1996, 2006), plus to make it an even ten, the other plus-.500 seasons (1996, 1999).  Namely, I want to see where the Chiefs stood, after six games, in those seasons.

Here's what you get:



So let’s extrapolate a little here, OK?  Because I am a very strong believer in statistics.  I believe everything in life is explainable, even if the explanation is “only God could have done that”.  And I do NOT believe in coincidence.  Everything in life happens for a purpose; nothing happens in a vacuum.  That’s why God gave us intelligence, and the abilities of logic and reason – to figure out why stuff is.

* Only one of the ten winning seasons, started 0-2.

That would be the 2006 Chiefs, who rallied from 0-2 to land at 7-4 after the Thanksgiving Night Boatracing of the dirty denver broncos … then backed into the playoffs via the Immaculate Fourfecta, thanks once again to the dirty denver broncos failing to beat an inferior team.

Every other season, at least opened 1-1, and six of the ten opened 2-0.  This isn’t surprising; teams that start strong, tend to reach the playoffs, even if they limp in.  Conversely, while usually you see one team a season come out of nowhere in December to ride a late four or five game winning streak into the playoffs, you rarely if ever see more than one.

(A fun little fact for ya – the only two teams in the modern playoff era (aka “post 1989”) to open 6-0 and fail to reach the playoffs?  Your 2003 Minnesota Vikings … and your 2009 denver  broncos.  That’s a list I have no desire, to become a part of this season.)

* Only one of the ten prior seasons profiled, saw a point differential within even forty five percent, of the 2013 Chiefs’ point differential, after six games.

Amazingly enough, that would be the worst defensive team of the ten, your 2003 Chiefs.  They rode a hot start (first four opponents all held to fourteen or fewer points), but by week six, the foundation was leaking.  Heavily.

Which raises an interesting thought: is this the best defensive unit the Chiefs have fielded in the modern playoff era? 

They’ve given up 13 fewer points than the 1993 Chiefs (who are the most successful Chiefs team of my lifetime, sadly enough).  Their differential is eleven higher than the 2003 unit (which was inflated by one helluva prolific offense) … and FORTY TWO points higher than the next best defense, the 1999 squad.

* For all the complaints about the offense, only one Chiefs team that finished above .500 in the last twenty years, had outscored the 2013 squad six games in.

And that team was the 2003 Chiefs, one of the ten greatest offensive teams in NFL history by any measurable statistic.

* You never apologize for beating the crappy teams.

Because that’s what good teams do.  Good teams beat the crappy ones, to pad the record.  Don’t trust me?  Here’s the number of playoff teams, each of the ten profiled Chiefs squads, faced through six games:

1993: 3 (Oilers, broncos, raiders; Chiefs beat Oilers in divisional round).
1994: 2 (49ers, Chargers – who met in the Super Bowl).
1995: 1 (Chargers).
1996: 2 (broncos, Steelers).
1997: 1 (broncos – who beat the Chiefs in the divisional round).
1999: 0.
2003: 3 (Ravens, broncos, Packers).
2005: 1 (broncos).
2006: 1 (Chargers).
2010: 1 (Colts).

The Chiefs record in those 15 games?  9-6.  Not shabby.

The Chiefs record in the other 45 games?  34-11.  Damned impressive.

To extrapolate that against the 2013 Chiefs, I’m very confident we’ve already beaten at least one playoff team (I think Dallas or Philly will win the East, and my money’s on Dallas).  And I’m reasonably confident, that’s the only playoff team that will emerge, from our first six opponents.  (The 49ers / Seahawks loser is getting one wildcard, and I’d wager on whoever finishes second in the NFC Norris getting the second.)

It’s nice to beat the good teams.

You get the opportunity to beat those teams in January, by beating the crappy teams in September and October.

The best seasons in this franchise’s last twenty years, saw the Chiefs DOMINATE non-playoff teams, and tread water against the heavyweights.

Which is exactly what the 2013 Chiefs, have done so far.

But – but! – there is one potential significant difference, between the 2013 Chiefs, and most of the other ten squads profiled.

* The 2013 Chiefs have yet to win, their “Game of Greatest Significance”.

I’d argue by this point in nearly every one of the ten profiled seasons, the Chiefs had already won the biggest game of the season, or at least the one that propelled them to a winning season, in hindsight:

1993: the outlier.  I’d argue the win over Buffalo on Thanksgiving Weekend, was the biggest win of that regular season ... and the biggest win period of the season, was the comeback in the Divisional Round in Houston.
1994: the greatest Monday Night game ever played.
1995: Pick one – James Hasty’s INT return, or Tamarick Vanover’s punt return.
1996: the win against denver.  First 4-0 start in franchise history.
1997: I see a Bad Moon Rison.  Oh, (al michaels voice) and he burned al davis’ house down.  If you know what I mean.
1999: the win against denver.  If you didn’t live in KC then, or weren’t a big fan of this team, you forget just how major that game was.  Everyone was panicked after the disaster in the opener at Chicago at how inept Gun’s guys looked.  (Note: if you pick the Brandsmart Game against the Chargers on Halloween, I won’t argue … and ditto the game that truly saved the season for a month, the epic comeback at oakland over Thanksgiving weekend.)
2003: the win against denver.  God, what a mirage that turned out to be.
2005: the biggest win had yet to occur (denver at home, week thirteen).  The biggest loss, already had (the collapse against Philly).
2006: the win against San Diego.  Without question.
2010: the win against San Diego.  Without question.

The reason why this matters to me?

Because this team’s “Game of Greatest Significance”, is (depending on your view of the rivalry) either 30 or 44 days from today, is (depending on your view of the rivalry) either November 17th at fake mile high, or December 1st, at the sacred holy turf of Arrowhead.

Or, to put it another way …

No matter what happens Sunday?

The best part of this season, STILL has yet to occur.

And as shown by the Excel table above?

This is at worst the second best season the Chiefs have opened with, in the last twenty years … and I’d argue it’s the best.

--------------------

Sunday is going to be far, far tougher than it looks gang.  For starters, Case Keenum is a damned decent option at quarterback.  I hope Terrorhead rattles him.  I fear it won’t.

The Texans are battling for their season.  A win Sunday, coupled with holding serve at the finest stadium in the League next Sunday night, means they hit the bye at .500, and either (a) tied with the Colts, or (b) one back, with tiebreaker.  A win Sunday, and the playoffs and the greatness this season potentially held, is back in the picture, is back in play.

We’re going to get THE best effort, any of our opponents have thrown at us, so far this season … and probably the second best effort, we’ll get all year long, behind only the two donkey games.

Show up early.  Be LOUD!  Smack that seat  back in front of you!  Scream yourself hoarse!  Make your mark!

For the better part of a decade, all we’ve had is the memory of what Terrorhead used to be.  This year?  The memory doesn’t just remain.

It freaking LIVES again.

* at Chiefs 20, Texans (+6 ½) 17, in overtime, on a Ryan Succup 41 yard field goal to open the extra session … followed by a defensive stand that will bring tears to the eyes, of every loyal backer, of the Red and Gold.

(damien voice) Dammit!  Stop picking these heart-stoppers!  I told you this seven damned years ago!  You're way, way, way too accurate when you're frightened the Chiefs are going to lose, or win a game they shouldn't!  Always pick the gimme layup!  I'm ... (chucking Coors Light can against the wall ...)

Yeah, you're right ... but sorry.  This game has "Predictable Letdown" written ALL over it.

As always, if you need a place to tailgate, a place to eat, a place to drink, a place to debate, talk, fornicate (hey, we do tailgate in Lot G, after all), or just to have fun with fun, friendly people with good, decent food and libations, we’ll be in our spot by 9am (that would be on the grassy lot, north of the G30 sign).  Just let me know to mark a spot for ya, and I’ll plant the chair.

And who knows, maybe I’ll be feeling so good from pounding (dear God) six bottles of champagne, I’ll leave a beer in the seat for ya.  Because I am that damned nice of a dude sometimes …

Friday, October 23, 2009

the week seven predictions

For anyone who needs a pick-me-up, I give you THE highlight from the last Chiefs season worth a damn, also the last time we beat San Diego at home. Joe Nedney. Hero extrodinaire.

Or as I remember it ...

(Oh, and if you missed my point-on spot analysis of how huge, how absolutely hu-yuge, tomorrow's game in Lawrence is, just scroll down to the next post ... or click here ... because yeah, tomorrow is arguably THE single biggest day in Jayhawk Football history ...)

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Last Week SU: 8-6-0.
Season to Date SU: 54-36-0.

Last Week ATS: 8-6-0.
Season to Date ATS: 45-47-0.

Last Week Upset / Week: seriously, God must really hate me.
Season to Date Upset / Week: 4-2, W3 (all denver).
This Week's Upset / Week: I am picking this straight based on Wayne Allyn Root principles. Redskins (+7) over Eagles.

The Non-Chiefs Predictions:

* at Texans (-3) 31, 49ers 20.
* Patriots 28, Bucs (+14 1/2) 20 (in London).
* Colts (-13) 34, at Rams 3.
* at Steelers (-4) 31, Vikings 20.
* Packers (-7) 34, Browns 13.
* at Panthers 27, Bills (+7) 24.
* at raiders (+6) 17, Jets 13.
* Bears (+1 1/2) 31, at Bengals 20.
* at Cowboys (-4) 28, Falcons 20.
* Saints (-6 1/2) 34, at Dolphins 13.
* at Redskins (+7) 13, Eagles 10.

The Chiefs Prediction:

I'm not gonna lie ... I can't guarantee my presence on Sunday.

If the current forecast (49 and rain) holds, I won't show up. I spent all last week in bed, puking my guts out. I refuse to put myself in a position to do that again.

Having said that ...

The last time the Chiefs beat the Chargers in Kansas City ... I accurately nailed the Tynes last second field goal for the win. Its the "prediction" that put me on the map. (Or, more accurately, its the prediction that Damien emailed to several other people with a "holy sh*t he got it!" message attached. Although to be fair, my follow-up pick of a Chiefs last second win over oakland via a Jarrad Page end zone INT probably sealed my 2006 Nostradamus status ...)

Anyways, the last time we beat San Diego here, both teams made the playoffs. This time, neither team looks likely to make it. (Although I still think the winner Sunday will give denver a run for the Western Division title).

My good friend Kellie sent me an email earlier today, simply entitled "Got a minute to talk?" I immediately panicked. Usually, when you get an email that contains that phrase, one of two things is coming your way. (a) Bad news, or (b) Horrible news.

Considering she's dating my co-best friend, I prepped for the worst.

Only, her "inquiry" was simply to urge me to dress better, show up Sunday, and "send philip rivers ass back to san diego with a loss!" If she's on our side ... and considering she's the sole reason I'm betting the family inheritance on denver every week at this point ... well ...

Send his ass home with a loss!

at Chiefs (+4 1/2) 26, Chargers 20. 2-5 at the bye isn't great. Especially when we should be 4-3. But when your next two are Jacksonville and oakland again ... well ... no 0-5 team has ever rallied to make the playoffs ... but eventually one has to, right? Right? (kellie voice) dammit Steve! That's not why I want you to show up and root like holy hell for a Chiefs win ...

week twelve picks

The Statisticals. Last Week SU: 8-6-0. Season to Date SU: 98-62-1. Last Week ATS: 7-7-0. Season to Date ATS: 75-80-6. Last Week Upset / ...