the week ten picks

Last Week SU: 7-6-0.

Season to Date SU: 82-49-0.

Last Week ATS: 7-6-0.

Season to Date ATS: 75-52-4.

Last Week Upset / Week: whoops.

Season to Date Upset / Week: 4-5 SU; 5-4 ATS.

This Week's Upset / Week: Colts (+10) over Steelers.

The Non-Jets Predictions:

* Byes: Chiefs, raiders, Eagles, Ravens.

* at “Super” Cardinals (+6) 24, Seahawks 20.  This, for all intents and purposes, is your Arizona “Super” Cardinals season.  If they win tonight, they get to 5-4, and this is their closing seven: at Texans / vs Jags / vs Rams / vs Titans / at Redskins / vs Giants / at Seahawks.  They win tonight, this could be your “how the hell did they win ten games and steal the six seed” team in the NFC.

* at Redskins (+1 ½) 41, Vikings 24.  The wrong team is favored.

* Packers (+5 ½) 16, at Bears 10.  Before we all go jumping on the “Brett Hundley F*cking Sucks!” bandwagon, let’s take a step back.  Yes, he’s 0-2.  To the Saints and Lions, two teams that I think will win their divisions when it’s all said and done.  The Bears aren’t the Saints or Lions, and Mitchell Trubisky sure as hell isn’t Drew Brees or Matthew Stafford.  Let’s all calm down before writing the Packers eulogy.  (Note: if you had “Stevo is starting Brett Hundley” as your reason for my defense of him, congratulations, you’re possibly a winner!)  

Also, “ALF Game O’ The Week” honors.

* at Colts (+10) 24, Steelers 21 (OT).  We all know the Steelers are going to sh*t the proverbial bed at some point.  They’re going to lose at least one game down the stretch they have no business losing.  They always do.  My money is on this one … although Green Bay at The Ketchup Bottle in two weeks makes sense too.

* at Jaguars (-3 ½) 31, “Super” Chargers 20.  Speaking of “let’s not get ahead of ourselves”, pick your side to be cautious about in this one.  The Jags five wins are against the Texans, Ravens, Steelers, Bengals, and Colts.  The “Super” Chargers have beaten the raiders, Giants, and those people.  Combined they’ve beaten one .500 or better squad.  The Jags five losses are to the Titans, Jets, and Rams; the “Super” Chargers have lost to those people, the Dolphins, the Chiefs, the Eagles, and the Patriots.  My point being, neither of these squads is worth getting worked up about.  Gun to my head, the Jags are better, and they’re at home.  But I’m not sold on this.

* Bengals (+4 ½) 27, at Titans 17.  Gut feeling.

* at Bills (-3) 34, Saints 14.  Let’s think this through to the end game, because this game has (potentially) schedule altering implications to it.  NBC currently is scheduled to air the Packers at Steelers on Sunday night, November 26th.  While that gives you two popular franchises, it also gives you one (at least on paper) god awful game in prime time.  And we all know how concerned the NFL is about its declining ratings right now.  (And unlike last year, there isn’t an election to blame, or recover from.)

On November 26th, the Bills visit the Chiefs, and the Saints visit the Rams.  Neither Buffalo nor New Orleans has a scheduled appearance on Sunday Night Football.  (For that matter, neither do the Rams, and the Chiefs are done barring being flexed in.)

Does the winner of this game, see their matchup on November 26th moved to prime time?

Something to consider.

(Also, this is one great game on paper.)

* at Lions (-11) 38, Browns 10.  “Webster Game O’ The Week” honors.

* at Rams (-11) 38, Texans 10.  “Designing Women Game O’ The Week” honors.

* at 49ers (+2 ½) 3, Giants 0.  “Good Times Game O’ The Week” honors.  If not the entire year.

* at “Shane” Falcons (-3) 41, Cowboys 34.  For the record, Zeke Elliott’s presence did not defeat the Chiefs last Sunday.  For the record, Zeke Elliott’s absence will defeat the Cowboys this Sunday.

* at those people (+7 ½) 20, Patriots 10.  The “Stevo Rule 34 Game O’ The Week”!  (Which, in case you didn’t know, Stevo Rule 34: if you ever make a decision, and find that everyone’s response to that decision is “you’d have to be mentally retarded or named Stevo to have done that”, just assume you f*cked up.)

There is no sane, rational, reasonable decision for expecting a reeling, humiliated, “we’re starting brock osweiler!” those people squad to win this game.  Absolutely not one.  They’ve lost four straight, each one worse than the previous, culminating with an ass-reaming so violently good that the Eagles literally ran out of fireworks to shoot off after scoring yet another, uuh, score.  I mean, that would be like the late, great Mr. Hugh M. Hefner running out of condoms during a Playboy Mansion party – unthinkable, inconceivable, unbelievable.  That is how horrific those people were last week.

And yet, I’m picking them to win outright – and comfortably – against the defending Super Bowl champions.  (old guy in “grumpier old men” voice) Just goes to show you.

* at Panthers 21, Dolphins (+9) 20.  This line is at least six points too high.  At least.  Also, “Empty Nest Game O’ The Week” honors.

The Jets Best Guess:

If you had the Jets as a .500 team entering their bye – with two weeks to prepare for the stretch run that they are very, very much a mathematical part of (thanks to the fact they’ve beaten both of the current AFC Wild Card holders) – raise your hand.

You will notice mine is not raised.

Look it, I firmly believe the final AFC Wild Card team will be 9-7 at best, and I actually think they’ll be 8-8.  (Gun to my head, your two Wild Card teams will end up being the raiders and Bills, but I’m not sold on Buffalo.)  If the Jets lose this one, .500 is out of the question -- there's still trips to Foxboro and N'Awlins on tap, plus home games with the Chiefs and Panthers after the bye.

For one more week, in the words of Tony Pena: nosotros podemos!

* Jets (-2 1/2) 20, at Bucs 13.

Hopefully coming sometime this weekend, my thoughts on the trip to Dallas for the Chiefs / Cowboys game, plus my Bye Week Chiefs Thoughts.