-- from the best Christmas episode of television, ever.
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I’m a very firm believer in the decision making process. Namely, I believe the process has three steps. First, ascertain where the hell you are. Second, figure out how the hell you got there. And then third, set a game plan to get where you desire to be, or remain where you’re at.
The Kansas City Chiefs have reached the defining moment of their season. After yesterday, nobody can deny that, can they? *
Now that we know where we are, let’s figure out how the hell we got here, shall we?
To say nothing, of figure out where the f*ck we go from here.
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(*: I really enjoy Kent Swanson's writings at AP. And I mean, really enjoy. I love statistical nerds who irrationally love them some Patrick Mahomes.)
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The Kansas City Chiefs opened the season 4-0. Their quarterback’s stats through four games were the following:
77/118 (65.2%), 7 TDs / 1 INT / 0 Fumbles, 96.45 QBR.
Included in those four wins, were a road victory within the division, two home wins within the division (including over the biggest threat to their attempt to claim the AFC West for a second straight season), and a road win against a solid team that calls Houston home.
Would you be happy with those results? Well of course you would, because all of us would, simply because of one number in the previous three paragraphs, that being the number (mike gundy voice) FOUR!
Then the Chiefs dropped three of the next five, to fall to 6-3. Included in that stretch was a national television loss at home to the Steelers, a prime time home victory against a divisional rival, as well as a last second / last play defeat on the road against a divisional rival that was a wild card team the year before. Again, you’d still take it, right?
Oh, and your QB’s stats through that stretch of five games:
100/190 (52.6%), 2 TDs / 7 INTs / 0 Fumbles, 60.28 QBR.
Now you’d be concerned, right? You would think (quite correctly) that teams facing the Chiefs had figured out that if you stop the run, the quarterback can’t beat you. And not only can the quarterback not beat you, he (allegedly) doesn’t possess the arm strength to beat you deep anyway. You would think (quite correctly) that the Chiefs quarterback left the field at Arrowhead to a very loud (and appropriate) chorus of boos, that fans would be clamoring for the new yet unproven backup to get his chance, and your head coach would be stuck answering questions about why he’s sticking with a quarterback clearly not getting the job done.
Sound familiar on this god-awful hangover-plagued Monday, Chiefs fans?
Because it should.
The preceding paragraphs accurately portray where the Kansas City Chiefs stood after Week Ten … 1996.
The 1996 Chiefs would actually win their next two -- a three touchdown rout of the eventual Super Bowl champion Green Bay Packers (a game in which the first play from scrimmage was Marty having Steve Bono air it out to Sean LaChapelle as a “f*ck you middle finger of defiance” to his critics … and which sadly and pathetically, is my favorite play from the 1996 season), and a tight home win over a woeful Chicago Bears team.
At 8-3, the Chiefs sat one game behind those people, entering a home game against a pretty much .500 San Diego “Super” Chargers squad.
If Marty could admit it (and sadly, due to mental health issues, he probably can’t), but if Marty could admit it, that “Super” Chargers game -- specifically his reaction to it -- was not only the biggest mistake of his rock solid coaching career … it’s the mistake that started the clock ticking towards its ugly finish two years later, on his tenure in our fine city.
Because after falling behind 28-0 to the “Super” Chargers, Marty made the switch at quarterback, from Steve Bono to Rich Gannon. Not just during the game (Gannon led the Chiefs to two garbage time touchdowns that made the final 28-14), but for the rest of the season.
Yikes.
Let that sink in -- an 8-4 team that hadn’t missed the playoffs in six years, is making a panic move based on a couple of bad outings from a quarterback who, to that point as a starter in KC for two years, was 21-8 (counting playoffs).
It is a move that, immediately, paid off -- Gannon was pretty solid (15/18, 120 yards, 2 TDs / 0 INTs / 0 Fumbles, 131.5 QBR; also 7 rushes for 45 yards as well) in his debut, and the Chiefs beat a desperate Lions team in Detroit on Thanksgiving Day (which was the moment the Wayne “Rasputin” Fontes era officially (thomas rhett voice) crashed and burned. Also, in the interest of full disclosure, Wayne “Rasputin” Fontes is one of my two or three favorite head coaches of all time, and is criminitely and grousely underrated in the list of “good head coaches”-o-meter.)
A panic move that worked for one week, against a team whose season hung in the balance.
Precisely what most Chiefs fans want this morning -- bench the quarterback who has the team atop the division.
In 1996, that first game? Is the ONLY moment the panic move worked.
Because Rich Gannon was atrocious at oakland the following Monday night (12/33, 88 yards, 1 TD / 1 INT / 1 Fumble Lost, 43.4 QBR), a game in which the woeful, god-awful, stink-inspiring oakland raiders led 26-0 after three quarters. The next week -- the game most Chiefs fans had waited all season for, the playoff rematch against the Colts -- Rich Gannon was injured in the second quarter. Marty had no choice but to turn back to a p*ssed off Steve Bono, who failed to deliver the victory against the Colts, and then basically refused to try at Buffalo in the season finale, a defeat that cost the Chiefs a playoff berth -- the first time in the decade the playoffs would be staged Chiefs-less.
Why, you ask, do I mention this?
For one simple reason.
And sweet merciful everything holy, how I wish a certain someone that used to occupy a place of importance in my life, had done this six years ago.
When you make a decision?
Play it through to the end game!
Don’t just look at the immediate payoffs or drawbacks -- play it through to the f*cking end game! IF I do this? What is the fallout, what is the end result?
Am I, are you, prepared to create a catastrophe that is 100% avoidable, and am I, are you, prepared to accept the results of that catastrophe?
Because that’s where we’re at this horrible, awful, “hey, I finally have a hangover!” ** Monday morning, Chiefs fans.
We know where we are. We know how we got here. What we haven’t figured out, is where we go from here.
Because where we are?
Is NOT where we desired to be.
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(**: true story: I rarely, if ever, get a hangover. I suppose 22.46% of that is due to family genes (my folks and my brother rarely do either), and 77.54% of that is due to the (hang on, I'm almost 41, so carry the three ...) 25 years of abuse my liver has endured. But it's true. I can literally drink you and me into a coma, and I'll be wide awake and fully functional at 7am the next day like nothing happened. It's a blessing ... and a curse. Last night, I went on a bender the likes of which I haven't gone on in a long, long, long, long time. I did NOT cope well with that defeat. I had today off ... but for one of the rarest of rarities, my head has pounded all day, and it's a struggle to type, let alone get out of bed, let alone contemplate getting back on the Clydesdale-fueled proverbial wagon.
Let's just say ... I hope I never feel this way again. Because this feeling (bart simpson voice) does what seems anatomically impossible: it both sucks and blows.)
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I’ve been saying to anyone who will listen for at least a month now, that yesterday’s game against Buffalo terrified me. For starters, we never play well against Buffalo, save for arguably the single greatest day I have experienced as a Chiefs fan in my lifetime. (It’s Monday, October 7, 1991 … or it’s Saturday, January 9, 2016. Either way, when your two choices are (a) a Monday Night beatdown of the defending AFC Champs that they repaid the favor for three months later, or (b) a Wild Card victory over a Brian Hoyer quarterbacked team, it’s a pretty desolate forty years, if we’re being honest.)
For as much as us Chiefs fans b*tch and moan about the Colts ending our season (and they’ve done it at least five times since 1995 alone, including that 1996 home finale that was a de-facto playoff game), the Bills are just as awful. They ended the 1991 season in the Divisional Round. They ended the 1993 season in the AFC Title Game. They ended the 1996 season in the regular season finale.
They effectively ended the 2000 season in Week Twelve, via a fake punt. You can pick from three different indefensible defeats in 2005 for what cost the Chiefs a playoff berth at 10-6 … but one of those three choices is a horrific loss in Buffalo in Week Twelve. (The other two would be the epic collapse against Philly, and the late collapse in Dallas. To be honest, I blame the Philly loss -- you simply cannot p*ss away a 23-6 lead at home, period. But losing 13-9 to a three win Bills team that had quit on its coach is pretty damned awful as well.)
They effectively ended the Herm Edwards era via a late regular season victory over the Chiefs that led to Carl Peterson’s resignation in the aftermath. (Also, I sucked as a writer ten years ago, even more than I do now. I did not think that was possible ... but it just goes to show ya.)
They damned near cost the 2010 Chiefs a division title and playoff berth, literally taking all fifteen minutes of overtime before finally surrendering to a Ryan Succup field goal as time expired. They exposed the 2011 Chiefs as frauds on Opening Day, a 41-7 ass kicking that saw Eric Berry’s first season-ending issue occur. (Sadly, there’ve been two more, including this year.)
And now? They’ve knocked a Chiefs team that led the division by three freaking games three freaking weeks ago, a Chiefs team so freaking confident they were playoff bound that the front office sent the “Extortion Letter” on November 3rd *** -- a letter that neither I, nor Jasson, nor The Second Parents, nor The Voice of Reason, had EVER received before December before. They’ve knocked that team, its fanbase, and pretty much every person listening to 610 or 810 into a state of panic unseen in this city about this team since Jovan Belcher was killing his baby mama and Marty McDonald was leading a movement for a “black out” at every home game. Including oakland.
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(***: “The Extortion Letter” is the Chiefs informing us STM’s that they have been authorized to sell playoff tickets. They went on sale today. I guaran-godd*mn-tee you, they ain’t selling.
Here is your 2017 version of “The Extortion Letter”:
image credit: me, via whatever the hell the Snag-It like tool is on my Chromebook.)
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Look it, I booed Sir Alex yesterday. And I mean booed. For the second time this season, the offense stunk up the hallowed grounds of Arrowhead so spectacularly, even those people feel sorry for the stench. (And in true Chiefs fashion, we can’t even enjoy those people getting their asses handed to them yesterday by the raiders … because we needed them to win. Sonofa …)
But here the Chiefs sit, still 6-5, still in first place all by their lonesome selves, and again, IF the Chiefs simply win out at home, the worst they can finish is 9-7, and the best either the “Super” Chargers or raiders could finish is 9-7, and the Chiefs would own tiebreaker over either squad -- the “Super” Chargers via the head to head sweep, the raiders via super divisional record. (The raiders and “Super” Chargers play in LA to end the season, so there’s no chance of a three way tie at the top, if the Chiefs win out at home.)
Which is why I find myself this morning agreeing with “Fat” Andy Reid -- that Sir Alex is the quarterback yesterday, and today, and for at least six more days, tomorrow.
Because let’s be brutally honest here folks: we have now reached the fail-safe line. The “Super” Chargers are not losing at home to the Browns next week. The raiders are not losing at home to the Giants next week. Both of those teams are getting back to .500 next Sunday.
Which is why I think Sunday at the Fake Meadowlands, is the fail safe line.
And it’s why I believe you don’t bench Sir Alex yet.
Because think through the consequences, of benching him for Patrick Mahomes “Of The Chiefs”.
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And I don’t come to this conclusion lightly. Because there is no bigger backer of Mr. Mahomes than me … save for possibly his parents. I had the drunk-as-hell STM behind me (I refuse to learn his name; I just hope and pray he’s not back next season), he actually yelled at me about fifty different times “is it your boy’s time yet”? (I wear a customized Mahomes Chiefs hat to every game … and yes, I have the jersey ready as well. It was almost warm enough yesterday, to get away with the shirzey I have of Mr. Mahomes.)
And every time my response was the same: no.
And my reason for answering no -- at least for one more week -- is “remember 1996”.
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Having said "no" ...
There is one very compelling reason to switch to Mr. Mahomes, and that is the abject indefensible failure of Sir Alex to come through in the clutch. In four of the five Chiefs defeats, Sir Alex has had the ball in his hand, late in the fourth quarter, in a one score game, and failed. Utterly and completely failed. To recap:
* vs Steelers. With 1:06 to play, the Chiefs had the ball at the Steelers 40 yard line, 1st and 10, with a timeout in hand. The result? Incomplete to Kelce, incomplete to Robinson, a horrendous sack that resulted in calling the timeout, and missing a wide open Tyreek Hill at the Steelers 15 yard line.
(Trust me, he was WIDE open, and Sir Alex overshot him by five yards. I sit in the end zone the Chiefs usually head towards in the 2nd and 4th quarters when they're at home. I've sat there for all but a handful of games since I moved back to KC in 1999 ... and I've only missed three home games since I moved back that count. (Sorry preseason -- I schedule the annual float trip on one of those weekends, for a reason. And again, given I attend at least one roadie a year (and as of now, am not missing another game this season), I've OVER-attended Chiefs games the last twenty years. You're welcome.)
My point being? Mr. Hill was WIDE open.)
Steelers 19, Chiefs 13.
* at raiders. 2:46 to play, the Chiefs had the ball at their own 40, facing a 3rd and 4. With a first down, the game was all but over. (Realistically, the Chiefs would need one more first down to truly bleed the clock, but even failing there, the raiders still would have been deprived of at least a minute (they only had one timeout left, plus the two minute warning) on their game winning drive that literally took every second remaining in the game to complete.) Sir Alex takes yet another indefensible, brain-fart retarded sack on that 3rd and 4, the raiders call timeout, and get the ball back with 2:25 to go. Instead of a 30-24 Chiefs victory, the ensuing drive gave the Chiefs a 30-31 defeat.
* at Giants. This one, to be fair, is a mixed outcome. The good is that the Chiefs took over with 1:30 to go, down three, at their own 26 … and kicked the tying field goal with 0:05 to play to force overtime. To Sir Alex’s credit, he forced overtime.
To his detriment, the Chiefs won the coin flip, elected to receive … and promptly stalled out at their own 30 after a couple bad passes fell harmlessly to the ground. The Giants took the ensuing drive to the Chiefs 5, and kicked the game winning field goal.
* vs Bills. Oh sweet merciful everything that is holy, this is the one that is completely indefensible. The Chiefense -- which has been anything but defensive -- stops the Bills five consecutive drives in the 3rd and 4th quarter. Three of those five are three and outs. They shut down a Bills team that was tearing them to pieces in the first forty minutes.
Five f*cking times **** , Sir Alex had the ball in his hand, in a one score game, against an at-best mediocre Bills squad. The ensuing results?
1. On a 3rd and 9 at the Chiefs 41, Sir Alex takes a 16 yard sack. Punt.
2. On a 3rd and 11 at the Chiefs 42, Sir Alex throws an incompletion. Punt.
3. On a 3rd and 2 at the Chiefs 46 … well, this one isn’t on Sir Alex. “Fat” Andy stupidly called a wildcat formation, a toss sweep to Tyreek Hill, who lost yards. Punt.
4. On a 3rd and 6 at the Bills 48, Sir Alex throws well short of the yard to gain, for a two yard completion to Tyreek Hill. Punt.
(Note: in the interest of full disclosure, I would have yanked Sir Alex after that, if you get the ball back. He CLEARLY did not have it yesterday. And no, yanking Sir Alex in that spot does not create a quarterback controversy people. Leaving him IN, is what creates the controversy.)
5. The Chiefs do get the ball back, as the defense somehow stuffs Shady McCoy twice and sacks Taylor once. With 2:28 to go, the Chiefs get the ball at their own 14, out of timeouts … but as Paul Maguire would note: “let’s go back to this!”
In further proof that life is one sick sense of humor, this is the EXACT situation the raiders faced against the Chiefs six weeks ago: 2:28 to play, ball at their own 14, no timeouts, down 6. derek carr came through six weeks ago. Sir Alex failed miserably yesterday, throwing an indefensible interception on 3rd down and 8 at the Bills 36. How he did not see the Bills’ TreDavious White literally waiting for him to throw the ball, I have no idea. I knew it was picked the moment it was thrown; I guarantee you every person in that stadium not named Alex Smith knew it was picked the moment it was thrown.
In four of the five Chiefs losses this season, Sir Alex has had the ball, in complete and total control of the outcome. (The Dallas game -- give it a rest. Sir Alex didn’t cost us that game; if anything, he kept us afloat far longer than we should have been, uuh, afloat. Throwing a pick on a 4th and 8 down 11 with 4 minutes to play does NOT cost you the game.) All four times, Sir Alex failed. Period. He has noone to blame but himself. Especially yesterday.
That, quite frankly, is the ONLY sane rational argument to switch to Patrick Mahomes “Of The Chiefs”, is that Sir Alex has failed in four of the five defeats to engineer a victory.
(The rebuttal, of course, is to note that Sir Alex authored the win in Foxboro, handed Philly its’ only defeat of the season, did deliver on the final drive against the Redskins (a game winning field goal in a tie game), and damned near single handedly beat Houston.)
When the only argument you really have to bench a quarterback leading his damned division is “well, he’s only 6-5 this season”, you don’t really have an argument.
At least in my opinion.
Because again -- 1996.
And given how wacky the 1996 AFC postseason was (the sixth seeded Jags upset Buffalo and those people, before losing at the two seed Patriots), one can credibly ask: if you leave Steve Bono in, do you get to ten wins and the Chiefs become the “holy hell, how did they get this far?!?!?!” squad that year, rather than the Jaguars?
(Gun to my head, the answer is yes. Bono would have beaten the Lions (as Gannon did), and probably by a more comfortable margin than four points, and there’s no way he sh*ts the field in oakland the following week, like Gannon did. He also probably beats Indy if he gets the start -- the Chiefs trailed 17-6 when Gannon left hurt, and rallied to fall 19-24. He still probably loses at Buffalo to end the season, as they also had to win that game to reach the postseason. But still, what would you rather have -- an 11-5 wild card team with an unpopular quarterback everyone knows is gone after the season … or a 9-7 playoff-less team with no credible solution to the QB position in sight? The Chiefs opted for the latter 21 years ago. I’d have opted for the former -- then, and now.)
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(****: I've dropped the f-bomb to my mom four times in my life. 1993 Eastern Conference Finals, "The Charles Smith Game". She let it slide. 1997 21st Birthday, the loss to those people in the playoffs. She let it slide. 2002, the night the life I led finally bit me in the a**, and my gambling addiction hit the fan, I simply said "I'm a f*cking failure". She let it slide. And last night, when I said and I quote "This team f*cking p*sses the sh*t out of me!" She let it slide. The lesson? F*ck if I know, other than, if you only drop the f-bomb to your mom once a decade on average? She'll probably let it slide. You have to pick your battles in life. I'm glad she's let the "stop swearing so much!" battle go to the dustbin of history. Because we all know, there are far, far things worse about me, than my love of the only word in the English language that can be used as all eight parts, of the English language.)
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If you truly want to get into why yesterday happened, look no further than who the leading rusher for the Chiefs was.
(Hint: his initials are AS.)
If your quarterback is, say, Randall Cunningham in his Eagles days, or Mike Vick in his prime, and he’s your leading rusher, well hell, be happy about it. Because those two dudes were supremely gifted athletes the NFL had no credible answer to.
And if your quarterback is, say, Warren Moon at the height of the Run-and-Shoot era, and he’s your leading rusher? Again, it’s defensible, because he probably threw for 500 yards to make up for the lack of a running game.
But when your quarterback is Sir Alex, and he’s not only your leading rusher (35 yards, on 7 attempts), by more than double (17 yards on 12 attempts) of your starting running back, and nearly double (20 yards on 15 attempts) of everyone else on the roster?
You’re losing, period.
I have heard the arguments this morning that “well, we have no running game because nobody respects Sir Alex’s passing ability”, and fine, if you want to make that argument, be my guest. I won’t stop you; I might not even disagree with you.
But that still begs the Captain Oats question of the day: does starting Patrick Mahomes “Of The Chiefs” ensure you can rush for more than 1.33 yards / attempt? Because that’s what every player on the roster not named Alex Smith managed yesterday -- 20 yards on 15 attempts.
Until you fix the running game, it doesn’t matter who’s under center. Because let’s face it, you only have a running game that atrocious, if your offensive line stinks worse than those people that call fake mile high home, uuh, stink.
And if your offensive line is that awful?
Do you really trust them to keep the quarterback upright?
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Again -- 1996. Once you bench Sir Alex, you CANNOT go back to him. You cross the proverbial Rubicon. And once you cross the proverbial Rubicon, it’s damned near impossible to not only control the outcome, but correct it if it blows up in your face.
(Again -- the "decision making process": where the hell are we, how the hell did we get here, and what the hell happens next. It's not that tough to handle, people. It's really not.)
Dance with the devil you know, Chiefs fans, at least for one more week. Because we haven’t hit the fail safe line yet. Now, I will freely grant you, it feels like we’re the Clinton War Room at 9pm ET on November 8, 2016: you see the cracks in the foundation and you’re terrified of every result coming in … but the fail-safe is still holding. Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin haven’t flipped from blue to red … yet.
The Chargers aren’t in first place … yet. Neither are the raiders. (I think we can effectively remove those people from division title consideration.) The Chiefs are still one clear of the field in the division. And even with a loss on Sunday, and even losing the fail-safe that is the one game cushion they have on everyone else in the division, they’d still (if I understand tiebreakers right) occupy first place in a three way tie (KC / LA / oak are all 1-1 against each other; so then it becomes division record, which the Chiefs lead, as they only have one divisional loss, while the Chargers and raiders have two.)
Furthermore, even with a loss on Sunday, the Chiefs still control their own destiny -- win out at home, and you are guaranteed to win the division.
(And with a win on Sunday, ssshhh!, the Chiefs actually can all but wrap up the division in the span of six days: beat oakland and Los Angeles, and it’s over, because that would ensure neither squad could pass you, they could only tie you. And if you drop the right game (Miami) to force that tie, it doesn’t matter; the Chiefs would win via division record (5-1 vs 3-3 at best for either LA or oakland).
Yes, it looks bleak this morning. (Which is ironic; it’s pushing 70 and sunny today here in KC.) Yes, I get the fanbase demand that a quarterback switch occur. And yes, I even somewhat agree with it.
(I certainly understand it.)
But focus people. We’ve (luke bryan voice) been there, done that. It epically blew up in the Chiefs face twenty one years ago.
The time to panic has not yet arrived.
It’s close -- if six days from now the Jets win, then it’s time to make the panic switch to Mr. Mahomes.
But that moment has not yet arrived.
One more week, Chiefs fans. One more week.
Because the last panic move this franchise made at head coach, was an absolute disaster.
(Although, God bless, did I nail who we SHOULD have hired or what?)
And the last panic move this franchise made at quarterback … well hell, they’ve never made a panic move at quarterback, that worked out well for the Red and Gold ...
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