Thursday, November 16, 2017

week eleven: a king will be born, sort of ...

“The first noel
The angels did say?
Was to certain poor shepherds,
In fields where they lay.

In fields where they
Lay keeping their sheep,
On a cold winter’s night
That was so deep.

Noel!  Noel!  Noel!  Noel!
Born is the King of Israel!
Noel!  Noel!  Noel!  Noel!
Born is the King of Israel!

They looked up,
And saw a star!
Shining in the east,
Beyond and far!

And to the Earth?
It gave great light!
And so it continued,
Both day and night!

Noel!  Noel!  Noel!  Noel!
Born is the King of Israel!
Noel!  Noel!  Noel!  Noel!
Born is the King of Israel! …”

-- “The First Noel”.  

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Last Week SU: 6-8-0.
Season to Date SU: 88-57-0.

Last Week ATS: 7-6-1.
Season to Date ATS: 82-58-5.

Last Week Upset / Week: so close.
Season to Date Upset / Week: 4-6 SU; 6-4 ATS.
This Week’s Upset / Week: Packers (+2) over Ravens.

The Non-Chiefs Predictions:

* Byes: Jets, Panthers, Colts, 49ers. 

* Titans (+7) 31, at Steelers 14.  Ooh!  A potential Divisional Round preview!  On a Thursday to boot! 

* Lions (-3) 38, at Bears 17.  I’ll go there: is next week’s Vikings at Lions showdown on Thanksgiving the biggest game on that holiday the Lions have hosted since the Rasputin Era?  Also, Webster Game O’ The Week honors.

* at Dolphins (-1 ½) 16, Bucs 6.  God bless, how ugly.  Gordon Shumway Game O’ The Week honors.

* at Packers (+2) 24, Ravens 14.  This line makes zero sense to me.  Which means it’s probably right.  But still, you betting Joe Flacco on the road in Lambeau?  Because I’m not.  Also, Designing Women Game O’ The Week honors.

* at Vikings (-2 ½) 30, Rams 20.  God bless, another potential Divisional Round matchup eight weeks early.  Good job NFL Schedule Dude or Dudette!

* at Texans (+1 1/2) 20, "Super" Cardinals 10.  Gabbert!  Savage!  Albert!  Barber!  ONLY ... on FOX!  Seriously, how are Joe Buck and Troy Aikman not calling this one!

Also, it's been a few weeks ...


“Good Times!  Anytime you need a payment?
Good Times!  Anytime you need a friend?
Good Times!  Anytime you’re out from under?
Not getting hassled!  Not getting hustled!

Keepin’ yo’ head above water!
Makin’ a wave when you can!

Temporary layoffs?  Good Times!
Easy credit ripoffs?  Good Times!
Scratchin’ and survivin’?  Good Times!
Hangin’ in a chow line?  Good Times!

Ain’t we lucky we got ‘em?
(Na Na Na Na Na) Good Times!!!!!!!!!!!! …”

* at Browns (+7) 24, Jaguars 13.  Oof.  Empty Nest Game O’ The Week honors.

* at Saints 31, Redskins (+7 ½) 30.  I am not sold on this straight up pick.  At all.  The Redskins are more than capable of winning this game.  Given the state of the NFC (namely, ten teams are above .500 right now), in the words of Stevo’s Site Numero Dos’ Official Color Commentator (Emeritus), Dan Dierdorf, “it would behoove the Redskins to win this game”.  Also, it’s been thirty years of passionately following this sport … and I still have no damned clue what “behoove” means.

* at “Super” Chargers (-4 ½) 27, Bills 17.  For any Bills fans reading this who think panic-switching quarterbacks while you’re currently occupying a playoff position is a good thing, I refer you to the 1996 Kansas City Chiefs.  There’s stupid, there’s dumb f*ck stupid, and then there’s “benching a playoff caliber quarterback over one bad home loss to a damned good team” stupid.

* raiders (+6 ½) 38, Patriots 27 (Game in Mexico City).  Speaking of teams it would behoove to win, your oakland raiders everyone!  Also, and I ask this with all due sincerity: no Wayne Newton at the ceremonial first dig for the raiders new joint?  Seriously?  How the hell can you break ground in Vegas and NOT have Wayne Newton with a shovel in his hand?  Just a part of the crowd?  That’s some shady, shady planning, mark.  Shady, shady planning.

* Bengals (+2 ½) 45, at those people 6.  Ladies and gentlemen, let’s check in with those people’s DE and all around classless jacka** derek wolfe, on the state of those people following their latest humiliating outing!

“It’s like we’re a whole new (bleep) team.  It is embarrassing.  I am tired of being embarrassed.”

Yes!  Go on, sir!  This sounds great!  Tell us how you really feel, mr. wolfe!

“I don’t know man.  It’s real sad.”

You say sad, I say "damn, that nut was so powerful I just broke the damned condom" joy.  Splitting hairs, I’m sure!  But just to make sure, let’s get the money shot of mr. wolfe’s thoughts on his team:

“It’s sad we went from being a championship-caliber team to a team that stinks and nobody respects us.”

God, that statement is just … I need a cigarette and a shower after reading that!  Hang on, that was so great, let’s read it again:

“It’s sad we went from being a championship-caliber team to a team that stinks and nobody respects us.”

Well, to be fair, you haven’t lost anyone’s respect, derek.  You can’t lose what you never had.  But as for you feeling sad?  As for your team stinking?

(justin timberlake voice) Cry me a river. 

I mean seriously.  When (arguably) the second best player on the roster is whining like a toddler in the post-game?  That is a those people squad I can get behind!

If 1997 was “for john”, and 2015 was “for pat”?  Then 2017 is definitely “for Stevo”!

I have to be honest: I haven’t enjoyed a once-proud franchise collapsing this far and this fast since “Sur” William Callahan and “Surrender” Steve Pederson were turning Nebraska Football into a national joke ten years ago. 

Because just like with “Sur” William and his Huskers, this just gets better every week.  Just when you think those people cannot possibly sink lower into the sewer, they hold their breath and dive down into the stench even deeper!

Or, as mr. wolfe would refer to it as, "stink", not stench.  My apologies.

Consider:

* those people have now lost five straight.  The last time those people lost five straight?  I had no clue, so I had to go look it up.  Your answer?  2010.  The Glorious Josh McDaniels Era that frankly never should have had the plug pulled on it. 

The last time before that?  1990.  Needless to say, the 2017 version of those people makes me so, so happy.

* the only team the Giants have defeated in the last 318 calendar days?  (sarah palin voice) You betcha – those people!

* the closest those people have come to a win since September?  They lost by ten at Arrowhead.  And even that’s deceiving – it took a touchdown with less than two minutes to play, to get it that close.

* they are 0-5 since the bye.  They’re like the Bizarro “Fat” Andy Reid – they’re incapable of winning after a week off.

* they were shut out by the “Super” Chargers.  Let that sink in.  A team with no home field advantage whatsoever, shut them out.  Also

* that was the first time those people were shut out since 1992.  Yes, the last time those people were shut out, dan reeves was switching shawn moore and tommy maddox out every snap under center.  (Note: that really did happen.  How dumb f*ck stupid do you have to be to swap QBs every play?  Those people everyone!!!!)

* they gave up so many points in Philly (51), that the stadium literally ran out of fireworks to shoot off after the Eagles scored.  Now that’s sad, derek.  That’s what sad, is right there.  When you can’t even drop the BOOM!, to go with the dynamite.

* their special teams gaffes cost them 20 points Sunday night – in the first half alone!  They muffed a punt return for a touchdown.  They had a punt blocked for a touchdown.  They gave up a kick return for a touchdown.  And oh yeah, they opened the second half by having twelve men on the field as the Patriots prepared to punt.  (fred willard in “roseanne” voice * ) Wait – aren’t you a busty twenty year old blonde?  Whoops!  My mistake!

And as if all of that isn’t a b*tch slap of insult enough?

* you can make a credible argument the best quarterback in the building … is their 57 year old general manager. 

Your 2017 those people everyone!  (kazoo voice) !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

(I should note, I am 94% certain I’m going to fake mile high on New Year’s Eve.  If only to witness what a team that “stinks”, smells like in person … for a second time in two months!  Well that, and the Captain Oats in the room.  (Pause).  What?  (Pause).  Of COURSE I'm referring to a herbal product that is legal in Colorado, and has a distinctive odor!)

* Eagles (-3) 31, at Cowboys 21.  Most NFL fans would argue that over the last twenty, twenty five years, the two best divisions in football are the NFC East and AFC West.  (An argument I agree with.)  Both of those divisions could for all intents and purposes be wrapped up by Thanksgiving this year.  Unreal.

* “Shane” Falcons (+3) 34, at Seahawks 24.  The winner of this one can exhale a bit when it comes to playoff positioning.  The loser is in a world of trouble, to still be playing come January 1st.

(*: nobody is more fired up in anticipation of the “Roseanne” reboot than me.  And I mean nobody.  Also, that quote from Fred Willard occurs in the opening scene from the Season Eight episode "December Bride", and trust me, it's f*cking hysterical.  (The episode is available for free if you are an Amazon Prime subscriber.  If you aren't and want to check it out, hit me up; I'll give you my login.  Just promise not to spend whatever available Prime Credit balance I have, and we'll call it even.)

The “Klassy” Kevin Keitzman Tweet O’ The Week:

Some weeks?

This sh*t writes itself: 


  
Aw hell, I can't pass this up.

Seriously, Ol' Klassy?  Seriously?  

I mean, this "family man" commenting on men in positions of power (allegedly) taking advantage of women seeking career advancement, is just ... I mean ... what part of (allegedly) hearing "you may pull your pants up now" are you conveniently erasing from everyone's collective memory from (allegedly) seventeen years ago?!?!?!?!

In the word of Peter Griffin: "Cracked?"

The Tailgating Plans:

There are no The Tailgating Plans, as this is (probably) the last Chiefs game this season I will not attend in person.

The Watching Party Plans:

I’ll be at the Second Parents with our tailgating group.  Given the forecast for our lovely metropolitan area (as of today) is 42 and cloudy at kickoff, I’m guessing we won’t be on The Deck.  Still, anyone and everyone who wants in, is always going to be welcomed and wanted.  Hope to see ya.

“Disreputable Mexican Food Truck” Update:

In all its’ … uuh, glory?


(image credit: me, via my iPhone 8 whatever the hell model it is.)

It's majestic, isn't it?  I love me my "Disreputable Mexican Food Truck"!  

The Chiefs Prognostication:

The Chiefs open my favorite stretch of the year as a stunning 11 point favorite at Fake Giants Stadium against the woeful, uuh, Giants.  And you can read one of two things into this game.

(OK, maybe more than two, but work with me here.)

Either ...

a. The Giants humiliate the Chiefs, by either outright beating them, or keeping the score close enough to cover from the outset, or

b. The Chiefs beat the government mule out of the Giants, to a tune so brutal, that the "savior" we have been promised, sees his first regular season action.

And I have to admit ... while (a) is certainly in play?

(b) terrifies me.

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First off, welcome to Chrismukkah!  I freely admit, 98.45% of my life is a complete dumpster fire the likes of which ... well, only the Giants Football team could appreciate.  But the beauty of these six weeks?

Is that there's always redemption possible.

Even when you doubt it?  (And trust me -- I have.  Many, many, many, many, many, many times.)  But even when you doubt it?

God still gives a sh*t.  About you.  And somehow, about me.

(Pause).  Yeah, back to football.

--------------------

I firmly believe (b) is going to happen Sunday.  I think the Chiefs are going to take the Giants to the woodshed, pull their proverbial pants down, and give them the proverbial business like few teams (or "family man sports talk show hosts") ever have.

And that's why I have a slight reservation about Sunday.

Because I expect "the king to be born".  I fully expect Patrick Mahomes "Of the Chiefs" is going to see significant second half playing time.

(For reference, the largest halftime lead I can ever recall the Chiefs having, was 35-0 against your Arizona "Super" Cardinals in 2002 ... and hell yes, it was Thanksgiving Weekend when that game went down.  I think Sunday?  Might be worse for the Chiefs opposition.)

What if Mr. Mahomes rocks the joint?  What if he drops a 15/20, 150 yards, 2 TD / 0 INT performance, like Dick Gannon did in 1996 ... and 1997, in relief of the starter (be it Mr. Bono or Mr. Grbac)?  

Are we ready for a quarterback controversy?  

(And like it or not, between 610 and 810 needing to fill the airwaves with what passes as "quality commentary", you'd get one.)

A quarterback controversy destroyed the 1996 Chiefs -- a team picked by Sports Illustrated to win the Super Bowl.  (They missed the playoffs on tiebreakers.)  A quarterback controversy destroyed the best Chiefs team of my lifetime a year later -- Grbac or Gannon.

Both controversies started?

Four days before Thanksgiving.

Which is when the Chiefs play, Sunday.

(Gulp.)

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In my bedroom, I have a collage that grows as needed, for Mr. Mahomes.  In case you doubt me?


(image credit: me, via my iPhone 8 whatever the hell model it is.  The two pages from The Star are from their NFL Preview back in August.  The football with "good" written, my nephew made for me.  The two ticket stubs are mine, from the two preseason games Mr. Mahomes played in -- the last one of which, he started.  (Update: my bad.  One is from the Draft Party when he was picked; the other is from his start vs Titans to close August out.)  And the two pictures on the right, I took via my whatever the hell digital camera I bought for Puerto Rico, is, on the night he started against the Titans to close the preseason down.  It's a Kodak something, I know that.)

Still doubt my allegiance to Mr. Mahomes?  Then try this one on.

The hat I wear into Arrowhead?  

Mahomes.


(image credit: me, via my iPhone 8 whatever the hell model it is.  Also, flannel sheets when it's 36 f*cking degrees out, rule.  Don't you dare mock them, Stevo Nation.)

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I think the Chiefs win an absolute ass-kicking of Biblical proportions on Sunday.  This is going to be an annihilation.  

For the record, I think the Chiefs will lose once more this year: I think the raiders are going to upset us.  (I also don't think it will matter -- the Chiefs will clinch the AFC West on Christmas Eve, against the Dolphins.  I also think the Chiefs, Steelers, and Patriots all go 12-4 ... and I refuse to try to figure out who gets home field in that clusterf*ck, especially if a 12-4 Jags or Titans team weasels its way into the conversation as well.)

This is the team we've waited for, Chiefs fans.  We've waited generations for this.  (Well, at least three of them.)

* Chiefs (-11) 56, at Giants 10.

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week twelve picks

The Statisticals. Last Week SU: 8-6-0. Season to Date SU: 98-62-1. Last Week ATS: 7-7-0. Season to Date ATS: 75-80-6. Last Week Upset / ...