My quarter end for work ends Tuesday. I'm hopeful that means this is the last one of these that is less than its' usual jovial and jocular self. Because just reading picks with little to no commentary is just not that entertaining.
(To say nothing of not mocking Kaptain Klassy, aka Ol' Kietz, aka Sin de Pantalones.)
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The Statisticals.
Last Week SU: 11-3-0.
Season to Date SU: 50-26-1.
Last Week ATS: 8-6-0.
Season to Date ATS: 38-37-2.
Last Week Upset / Week: finally!
Season to Date Upset / Week SU: 2-3-0.
Season to Date Upset / Week ATS: 2-3-0.
This Week Upset / Week: Eagles (+10) over Ravens.
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The Week Six Predictions.
Byes: 3-2-0 raiders, 1-4-0 "Super" Chargers, 3-2-0 Saints, 5-0-0 Seahawks.
Oh, and by the way, since I forgot to mention this earlier this season, after what seems like decades of using USA Today's Danny Sullivan as this site's official oddsmaker, I've decided to move on to CBS Sportsline to deliver the official odds used when making these picks. This site has a friend known as "Reputable National Sports Columnist" that writes for the site; it only makes sense to throw that conglomo a bone once a week.
* 4-1-0 Bears (+1 1/2) 20, at 3-2-0 Panthers 14. Raise your hand if you thought this one might have postseason ramifications six weeks ago.
* 1-3-0 Lions (-3) 27, at 1-4-0 Jaguars 17. I know I'm dating myself here ... but god damn, do I miss Rasputin. If the great Wayne Fontes was still on the Lions sideline, they'd win this game by twenty, at least.
* 1-4-0 at Vikings (-3) 41, 0-5-0 "Shane" Falcons 3. I actually think Raheem Morris is a decent coach. Then again, I named this site's predecessor after Herm Edwards, I so believed in that guy, so what the hell do I know.
* 1-4-0 Texans (+3 1/2) 34, at 4-0-0 Titans 20. I know, I know -- the first rule of football gambling should be "never, ever, under any circumstance, in any situation, bet on a team coached by Coach Baffoon". We've lived the Romeo Crennel Experience here in Kansas City. But sometimes, you gotta break the rules. Especially when the opponent isn't as good as its' record, and is playing for the second time in five days.
* 1-4-0 Redskins (+1) 3, 0-5-0 Giants 0. I'm old enough to remember when these two teams represented the NFC in the Super Bowl four out of six years (1986-1991). I'm old enough to remember when this was the Game O' the Year in the NFC. I'm also old enough to remember when Sir Alex Smith's leg snapped in two, and nobody thought he'd play again. Seriously, I wasn't crying when he came in last week, you were ...
* at 4-0-0 Steelers (-3) 27, 4-1-0 Browns 20. This game won't be as close as the score; the Steelers get up big early and the Browns score a garbage time score or two.
* at 1-3-1 Eagles (+10) 27, 4-1-0 Ravens 24. The Eagles are not this bad; the Ravens are not this good. I like the Eagles outright.
* at 3-2-0 Colts 20, 1-3-1 Bengals (+7 1/2) 19. We get this game here in KC at noon, and I'm strangely looking forward to it. I want to see a broken down Phyllis Rivers (not) cursing in frustration that he's the one responsible for how awful Indy's offense is. And I really want to see Joe Burrow, because this kid is gonna be something special if Cincy can fix their offensive line issues in free agency and the draft this offseason.
* at 2-2-0 Patriots (-7 1/2) 34, 1-3-0 those people 14. This is not the "come to Jesus" game for those people. That one is next week. Those people's schedule after these next two weeks is extremely manageable the rest of the way. Hell, I had them opening 0-5 and missing the playoffs on tiebreakers, that's how soft the last ten for them are. Also, this line has dropped 3 1/2 points in four days. What the hell did those people do to suddenly become a field goal better than they were on Monday? Here's to hoping this bad boy falls to 6 1/2 or lower by kickoff Sunday.
* at 2-3-0 Dolphins (+8 1/2) 17, 0-5-0 Jets 0. If there is a hell, this game has to be playing on all of its' television screens.
* at 3-2-0 Buccaneers (+1) 38, 4-0-0 Packers 31. This is about the only thing that sucks about the NFL: you never get cross-conference matchups like Brady / Rodgers was. MLB you go at most three years between a star coming to town. NBA and NHL, you play every team at least once at home every full season. NFL? If said star is in the other conference, you get them at home once every eight years, and if injury is involved * , you may never get to see a superstar matchup, especially at QB1.
(*: the odds we will ever see Mahomes vs Rodgers at Arrowhead are virtually non-existent; Mr. Mahomes was out for last year's matchup, and Green Bay doesn't return to Arrowhead until 2027.)
* at 2-3-0 49ers (+3) 30, 4-1-0 Rams 20. The 49ers need this one desperately. They'll find a way.
* at 2-3-0 Cowboys (+1) 27, 3-2-0 "Super" Cardinals 17. I ask this with a straight face, and with the knowledge Andy Dalton is now Dallas' QB1: how the f*ck is Arizona favored?
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The Homegating Plans.
We are taking the "show on the road" ... sort of. This week's HomeGate will be at the Daily Double in Raytown. If you've never been to everyone's favorite "lounge", it's a throwback to the way bars used to be, right down to still allowing smoking indoors.
The menu is potluck. Bring whatever you'd like to contribute to the food. Drinks you'll have to buy, but in case you've never been to DD before, trust me -- it's cheaper to drink there, than it is to drink at home. I know that sounds ridiculous, but it's true.
And plus, as a side note, all monies raised via people "tipping" for food, as well as buying drinks, is going to a worthy charitable cause; neither our tailgating group (which will be supplying all food), nor Bruce and Kathy (who own the Double) will be keeping a cent raised via your purchases. The monies will be going to a good friend of ours who is not only battling a recurrence of cancer himself, but his "lady friend" is fighting it as well.
Feel free to come out and join us. 63rd and Woodson, far southeast corner next to the Dollar General. We hope to have The Bus set up out front with tailgating games and assorted places to sit and enjoy the day, weather permitting. The fun should begin sometime after lunch -- 2ish or so.
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The Chiefs Prognostication.
* at 4-1-0 Bills (+5 1/2) 34, 4-1-0 Chiefs 27. This line is patently absurd. Bills win on a last minute touchdown drive.
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