Saturday, December 30, 2017

week seventeen: dealing with demons ...

"I'm a rolling thunder, a pouring rain;
I'm coming on like a hurricane!
My lightning's flashing across the sky;
You're only young, but you're gonna die!

Won't take no prisoners!  Won't spare no lives!
Nobody's putting up a fight!
I got my bell; I'm gonna take you to hell!
I'm gonna get you -- Satan!  Get you!

Hell's Bells!
Oh, Hell's Bells!
You got me ringing Hell's Bells!
My temperature's high -- Hell's Bells! ..."

-- "Hell's Bells" by AC/DC.  And no, Max Falkenstein, those aren't the bells of the Campanille that are ringing ...

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Last Week SU: 10-6-0.
Season to Date SU: 146-94-0.

Last Week ATS: 8-7-1.
Season to Date ATS: 132-97-11.

Last Week Upset / Week: you have got to be kitten me.
Season to Date Upset / Week: 6-12-0 SU; 8-8-2 ATS.
This Week's Upset / Week: Eagles (+3) over Cowboys.

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The "These Games Don't Impact the Chiefs" Predictions:

(Note: no "I'd rather watch a three hour marathon of this sh*tty sitcom than this game" designations this week.  Week Seventeen is the saddest week of them all.  Every game is watchable.)

* at Lions (-6 1/2) 31, Packers 21.  Buh bye Corpse Caldwell.
* at Patriots (-15) 41, Jets 3.  No special Jets section this week, but for the record, I'd have done what the Jets did, and kept both GM Mike Maccagnan and head coach Todd Bowles.  
* at Colts (-5) 24, Texans 14.  If Texans owner Bob McNair is stupid enough to side with the worthless Rick Smith (his GM) over Bill O'Brien, he deserves the five straight 3-13 campaigns headed his way.
* at Steelers (-7) 28, Browns 10.  Circle me curious as to what new Browns GM John Dorsey does.  Because in case you forgot, Dorsey didn't hire "Fat" Andy here in KC -- "Fat" Andy came first.  Dorsey has never hired (or fired) a head coach before.  This should be fascinating.  (I'd keep Hue, but then again, I would have hired Hue here five years ago, so what do I know.)
* Redskins (-5) 34, at Giants 3.  Please hire Jim Schwartz, Giants.  If only to see a full fledged riot in the swamps of North Jersey by despondent Giants fans.
* at Vikings 24, Bears (+11) 20.  Welcome to the Windy City, Bob Stoops.
* at Eagles (+3) 34, Cowboys 21.  The single biggest mistake in Jerry Jones' career would be bringing Jason Garrett back for a ninth failed attempt to win the Lombardi.  And I'm fully aware this is the man who gave Dave Campo three years, and thought Quincy Carter was a viable option under center.
* at "Shane" Falcons (-4) 31, Panthers 24.  As sh*tty as the AFC Wild Card round looks ... the NFC Wild Card round looks ... hang on, let me do this right.  The NFC Wild Card round?  (my buddy bunch voice) she's stacked!
* Saints 31, at Bucs (+6) 28.  Seriously, Tampa?  Dirk Koetter?  For Year Three?  If you had any fans, they'd riot before, during, and after this contest.
* at Seahawks (-9) 35, "Super" Cardinals 17.  Stevo Shock Prediction: both coaches in this contest "retire" on Monday morning, Tuesday morning at the latest.
* 49ers (-3 1/2) 35, at Rams 14.  The first of two straight (ravishing rick) rude awakenings for the year-too-soon Rams.

The "This Affects The AFC Playoffs But The Chiefs Can't Face Them" Best Guess:

* at "Super" Chargers (-8) 45, raiders 13.  Even if the "Super" Chargers get in (and I pray to God they don't), they can only reach the playoffs as the six seed.  (Note: the similarities between the 2013 "Super" Chargers and the 2017 "Super" Chargers frighten me -- right down to the fact they'd be favored on the road, as a six seed ... and probably win by double digits to boot.)  I've long believed the single hardest thing to do in football is beat a team three times in one year.  Thank God the Chiefs are locked into the four.

The "These Games Determine The Chiefs Wild Card Opponent" Best Wishes:

* Bills (-2 1/2) 27, at Dolphins 13.  From a Chiefs fan perspective -- and purely as a fan of the Red and Gold perspective -- the Bills are who I want strolling into Arrowhead next weekend.  I firmly believe they are by far and away the easiest of the three possible opponents to beat.  And yes, I am fully aware the Bills have already won at Arrowhead this year.  I don't care.  I just don't see this Bills team as capable of rolling into a truly fired up and filled up Arrowhead and being a viable threat to win.  I just don't.

* at Titans (-3) 31, Jaguars 24.  And from a "this is meant to be fun, and I mean damned fun!" perspective as a football fan, and as a season ticket member who's already been charged ticket and parking for next weekend (thanks Chiefs for the "Merry Christmas" gift on my MasterCard!), the Titans are who I want to face next weekend.  Because if the Titans are the opponent, at least six great friends will hike down from Sioux Falls for this one, as the Titans are Nicole's team, and she'll drag her family with her.  I really want the Titans from a fan's perspective.  (And from a Chiefs perspective -- do you really think Mike Mularkey can draw up a game winning, uuh, game plan, on five days notice?  Because I don't.  Especially considering he hasn't drawn up a winning game plan anywhere in a month.)

* Bengals (+9 1/2) 31, at Ravens 20.  And then there's the team I want no part of.  Do you realize the Ravens have NEVER lost at Arrowhead before?  It's a quirky stat, but it's true.  They won here in 2012 (the "Boo Cassel" Game), they won here in 2006, and they won here in the Wild Card game in 2010.

It seems like every year, some team that controls its' destiny sh*ts the best in an unimaginable manner as favorites.  I think the Ravens are this year's squad.  At least I hope they are.

Stevo's Projected Playoff Field:

AFC:
1. New England Patriots (13-3).
2. Pittsburgh Steelers (13-3).
3. Jacksonville Jaguars (10-6).
4. Kansas City Chiefs (stay tuned).
5. Tennessee Titans (9-7).
6. Buffalo Bills (9-7).

Just Missed: Baltimore Ravens (9-7); Los Angeles "Super" Chargers (9-7).  I believe I have read the tiebreakers right, should the glorious four-way clusterf*ck at 9-7 unfold.  Also, even if both the Chiefs and Jaguars wind up at 10-6, the Jags have clinched the tiebreaker via better conference record.

NFC:
1. Philadelphia Eagles (14-2).
2. Minnesota Vikings (13-3).
3. New Orleans Saints (12-4).
4. Los Angeles Rams (11-5).
5. Carolina Panthers (11-5).
6. Atlanta "Shane" Falcons (10-6).

Just Missed: Seattle Seahawks (10-6).  Atlanta wins tiebreaker via head to head victory last month, in Seattle to boot.

Stevo's Projected Wild Card Schedule:

Saturday, January 6, 3:30pm CT (ESPN / ABC): 6 Buffalo Bills at 3 Jacksonville Jaguars.
Saturday, January 6, 7:00pm CT (NBC): 6 Atlanta "Shane" Falcons at 3 New Orleans Saints.
Sunday, January 7, noon CT (CBS): 5 Tennessee Titans at 4 Kansas City Chiefs.
Sunday, January 7, 3:30pm CT (FOX): 5 Carolina Panthers at 4 Los Angeles Rams.

The only possible different scenario imaginable is that CBS grabs Bills / Jags instead of Titans / Chiefs.  NBC gets first pick, and they'll grab either Seattle or Atlanta at New Orleans.  FOX then gets the Rams by default, and the 3:30 Sunday slot by default (LA can't kick off at 10am local time).  CBS then gets its' pick of two dud matchups.  I think they'll opt for the optics of Arrowhead (and a proven fan base) over two upstarts ... but who knows.

And finally, for what will NOT be the final time this season ...

The Chiefs Prognostication:

* Chiefs (+4) 24, at those people 3.  

I could say a lot (and might later Sunday / Monday), but all I choose to say is this, to fans of the Red and Gold: don't overreact to anything you see on Sunday.

Good, bad, or ugly, it doesn't change reality.  And reality is that those people's season is over come 6pm MT Sunday ... and our season is just beginning.  Their QB situation is arguably the worst in football; ours is arguably in the top five (and about to get better).  Their head coach couldn't outcoach a corpse; ours is about to prove that playing the second string against those people's "finest", will result in a new round of stink for derek wolfe to b*tch about.

And all I can suggest to mr. wolfe, is that he hold his nose.  Because those people?  Are now the "Homer's Bucket Inside the Tailgating Tent" of the AFC West, if not the entire conference.  And will be for the very foreseeable future.

Stench never smelled so fine ... 

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week twelve picks

The Statisticals. Last Week SU: 8-6-0. Season to Date SU: 98-62-1. Last Week ATS: 7-7-0. Season to Date ATS: 75-80-6. Last Week Upset / ...