Thursday, December 14, 2017

week 15: (real world voice) stuff starts getting real ...

“Silent night.  Holy night.
All is calm.  All is bright.
Round yon virgin, mother and Child.
Holy Infant, so tender and mild.
Sleep in heavenly peace.
Sleep in heavenly peace …”


--------------------

Last Week SU: 10-6-0.
Season to Date SU: 124-84-0.

Last Week ATS: 12-4-0.
Season to Date ATS: 117-83-8.

Last Week Upset / Week: finally.
Season to Date Upset / Week: 5-10-0 SU; 7-7-1 ATS.
This Week’s Upset / Week: It’s a Two for Thursday!  Browns (+7) over Ravens, and yeah, we’re going there, in about seven pages.  (damien voice) Wait, he wouldn’t honestly take the Jets to win in N’Awlins, would he?  (pause.)  Oh sh*t!  Oh sh*t!  He believes!  He believes!  We’re gonna win!  We’re gonna win!  (stevo voice) Dude!  Shut up already!  Don’t give away the ending before I even get done with the beginning!

The Non-Jets, Non-Chiefs Predictions:

* those people (-2 ½) 17, at Colts 13.  “Empty Nest Game O’ The Week” honors.
* at Lions (-5 ½) 34, Bears 16.  The Lions are going to steal the six seed when it’s all said and done.
* Eagles 24, at Giants (+7 ½) 20.  Another year, a different NFC East champ.
* at Panthers 27, Packers (+6) 24.  For the record, I’d start Hundley.
* Dolphins (NL) 24, at Bills 14.  A de-facto playoff game.  Who saw this one coming?
* “Super” Cardinals (+4 ½) 17, at Redskins 13.  “Good Times Game O’ The Week” honors.
* at Vikings (-10 ½) 34, Bengals 14.  “Webster Game O’ The Week” honors.
* at Jaguars (-11 ½) 30, Texans 13.  “ALF Game O’ The Week” honors.
* at Browns (+7) 20, Ravens 10.  The AFC Clusterf*ck for the two wild cards is going to be glorious.
* Rams (+2 ½) 31, at Seahawks 20.  Winner probably takes the NFC West; the loser is in big trouble.
* Patriots (-3) 34, at Steelers 27.  Can’t wait to watch this one, although I’ll have the next game on the Sunday Ticket main TV, since it matters to the Chiefs more.
* at 49ers (-2) 17, Titans 13.  Again, the AFC Clusterf*ck at 9-7 (if not 8-8! * ) for the two wild cards is going to be real, and spectacular.
* at raiders (+3) 34, Cowboys 24.  They’re not dead yet folks.  Especially if they win out.  
* “Shane” Falcons (-6) 31, at Bucs 24.  The “Shane” Falcons better win this one -- if they do, they control their destiny (last two being vs Saints / vs Panthers).

(*: the best ever had to be 1999, when not one, but two NFC Wild Card teams got in at 8-8 (Lions, Cowboys), while Carolina and Green Bay had to score as many points as possible, as yes, the (then fourth, now) seventh tiebreaker -- net point differential in conference games -- would have been in play, had the Cowboys lost.  In case you’ve forgotten why you so f*cking love this sport, PLEASE CLICK ON THIS CLIP, sit back, and enjoy the hell out of football at its’ best!  Also, God bless it, I miss “NFL PrimeTime”.)

The “Klassy” Kevin Keitzman Tweet O’ The Week:


I ask this with all due sincerity -- which god awful Nelly song ** do you think Ol’ Klassy relates to more: “EI” or “Hot In Herre”?  Do you think he prefers … hell, let’s make this the Stevo’s Site Numero Dos’ Poll Question O’ The Week!

Which lyrical line from a Nelly hit does “Klassy” Kev’ relate to better:

a. “If the head right?  Nelly there, e’ry night!” -- “EI”
b. “It’s getting hot in here, so take off all your clothes!” -- “Hot in Herre”

I lean (a) … allegedly, of course.  Because this is all an alleged exercise in attempted humor at Ol’ Keitz’ expense.  Allegedly.

(**: “EI” is not a crappy song.  It is a spectacular song that will always be on Mixology for as long as I’m running it.  (Pause).  Which won’t be Saturday (hopefully).  As always, keep reading.)

The Watching Party Plans:

There are no The Watching Party Plans, although we will have the Sunday Ticket going on, uuh, Sunday, at the Second Parents place.  God bless DirecTV, giving away the Sunday Ticket for free for the last four weeks.  Because even I balked at paying over $300 / year for what, six Sundays of television viewing.  Thanks for remembering those of us who cancelled due to attending 10-12 games a year, guys.  You’re still the best!  (And for once, that isn’t sarcasm; I love having DirecTV back in my life for the first time in a few years.)

The Tailgating Plans:

If it’s the Chargers, we’re doing Chargers Chicken.  Which -- stunner! -- is what we’re doing.  We’ll have plenty of varieties of chicken available, along with various side items, desserts, and adult beverages.

Also -- and the plan was for this to start last week, but due to technical difficulties it didn’t -- I am ceding the Mixology portion of tailgating to a trained professional, in this case, my buddy Tyler, who DJ’s on the side on the weekend.  Hopefully this goes as planned, because honestly, (almost) 41 year old dudes should not be programming the musical rotation.  I’m too old to know quality modern stuff (save for the Chainsmokers; I like them!)

In any event, The Bus departs around 1pm; if you need a ride out, hop on board.  If you need a place to tailgate, you’re always welcome to join us.  And if you just feel like getting your buzz on before the biggest regular season game the Chiefs have played in three years … well, you can do worse than counting on a collection of functional alcoholics, to meet your buzz needs.

“Disreputable Mexican Food Truck” Update:

Again, nothing to report.  It’s WEEK FOUR of the freaking water main fix on North Broadway.  I mean, good God KCMO Works Department -- how long does it take to replace a damned pipe when it’s been above freezing for all but about 24 hours in those four weeks?

The Jets Best Guess:

If Christian Hackenberg does not start at least one of these last three games, Todd Bowles should be fired.

Which, in Mr. Bowles’ defense, he probably will be anyways, but still.  Josh McCown is out.  Bryce Petty’s arm is worse than mine on my best day.  It’s time to see what Ol’ Christian has in him.  

Or more realistically, doesn’t.

* at Saints (-16) 41, Jets 13.

The Chiefs Prognostication:

(Very, very, very deep breath …)

(Clearing the throat …)

You know what?  Before I start saying what I want to say, there’s only one proper way to open this:



OK, let’s begin.

--------------------

For the record, I believe that if this 2017 Chiefs season is what it has played out as, there is only one possible outcome on Saturday night, and that is a tie.

Think about it.  How PERFECT would, say, a 23-23 tie be?

It would resolve nothing.  It would cause a new round of panic amongst most of the fanbase.  It would probably occur because of a brain-fart clock decision, or play call decision, or inexcusable penalty that yet again costs this team a very winnable game.

And yet it would still somehow, someway, leave the Chiefs in complete and total control of their own fate, irregardless of what anyone else does.  It would still leave the Chiefs exactly where a win would put them: with a magic number of one, to win the West.  Sh*t, if anything, it might actually put the three seed back into play, depending on what the Jags and Titans do down the stretch (the Jags have vs Texans / at 49ers / at Titans; the Titans have at 49ers / vs Rams / vs Jaguars), as a tie only counts as half a defeat, and a 9-6-1 Chiefs squad would be seeded higher than a 9-7 AFC South champion.  (Note: this won’t matter; the Jags aren’t losing to Houston, which would be win ten.  But it is interesting to contemplate.)

This game just seems destined to end in a tie.  

But, since I try (and for once this season, I mostly succeed!) to pick the winner of each game, I have to pick an outcome here where one team outscores the other.

And that team?

--------------------

If you’re coming Saturday, be loud.  Be DAMNED loud!  Be so f*cking loud the late, great RCW will be screaming down from Heaven above to “shut up already”!  Pound that seat in front of you!  Stand on every critical third down, and let the Chiefense know you got ‘em!  Don’t boo the expected -- if Sir Alex misses an obvious read and checks down four minutes into the game, it’s OK.  Believe he’ll make up for it in the third quarter.

If there is anything this season has shown us, it is that the Chiefs will have the ball, in the fourth quarter, probably inside of three minutes, in a one score game either way.  It’s happened damned near every week.  The only two games it hasn’t happened were two blowout Chiefs victories -- the Eagles Week Two, the raiders last week.

Trust the coaching staff.  These guys are pretty good, folks.  “Fat” Andy hasn’t won 170 plus games by sheer luck; at some point, skill is involved.  (Note: I make this argument to somehow attempt to explain how I manage to hold down a job for significant chunks of time, and have never been fired from a job before (I have been laid off a couple times).  At some point, it isn’t dumb luck.  At some point, you have to acknowledge I just might know my sh*t when it comes to reinsurance.)

Remember 1995 when you begin to doubt.  The Chargers had first and goal at the Chiefs 4, two minute warning, up four.  The Chiefs won in overtime on my single favorite play of all time, Tamarick Vanover’s punt return to trigger what is without question the single loudest moment in Arrowhead’s history.  Remember 2006.  Lawrence Tynes nails it from 48 to upset the 6-0 Chargers … only to have a bullsh*t motion penalty called.  The retry from 53?  Even more golden than the attempt from 48.  Remember 2010.  “Tuesday Morning Football”.  Remember 2011.  “The Phumble”.

Remember 2015.  Dee Ford somehow, someway knocking that 4th and goal pass down to clinch (arguably) the most miraculous playoff berth in franchise history.

Or just remember last year against these guys, the greatest comeback in franchise history.

But most importantly -- trust yourselves.  Trust us, the fans.  Trust us to make the difference.  And then do your part to make the, uuh, difference.

(Or to put it more directly, do NOT be silent, on Saturday night.)

The team I pick to win?

(stevo sighing in disgust voice) Take a mother f*cking guess.

* at Chiefs (+1 ½) 29, Chargers 23 (OT).

Also, apologies again on the ridiculous formatting. I got it to work if you are reading this via a web browser on a computer screen. I know it's still effed up on a mobile device. I'm trying to fix it. For 894 previous posts, not one issue. Now, it's effed up. I swear, it's always something ...

No comments:

week twelve picks

The Statisticals. Last Week SU: 8-6-0. Season to Date SU: 98-62-1. Last Week ATS: 7-7-0. Season to Date ATS: 75-80-6. Last Week Upset / ...