A million miles away.
When she walks by?
You don't know what to say.
If you're gonna make a move?
You better make it now.
Don't be afraid --
Because love will show you how!
You take that first step --
Ask her out and treat her like a lady.
Second step --
Tell her she's the one you're dreaming of.
Third step --
Take her in your arms, and never let her go!
Don't you know? Step by step?
Step by step?
You'll win her love ..."
-- "Step by Step" by Eddie Rabbitt.
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A few refreshers before engaging in this pointless exercise:
1. The picks as they appear here, is what my primary / main bracket will look in any pool I enter. If I believe enough in my picks to expose them a few
2. At least one 1 seed has fallen in the first weekend 7 of the last 9 years (all but 2012 and 2016) * ; at least one team seeded 7th or lower has made the Final Four 8 of the last 9 years (all but 2012) ** . A couple quirks I use in filling out my bracket.
3. At least one region figures to be a Thomas the Train style trainwreck -- so utterly in (stewie griffin voice) roo-eens by Sunday that you'd think a three year old was in charge of the outcome. I've long felt the key to winning your pool is identifying that region and go along with the ride. The two years I've won (2002, 2010), I did that. (Note: projecting 12th seeded Mizzou to the Elite Eight in 2002 was a complete and total fluke ... or was it?)
And finally ...
4. I wager on these picks. At least some of them individually, and all of them overall. What you do with your bracket is up to you ... but I defy you to identify one thing in life that isn't more fun with a wager involved. Because you can't. And you know it.
And now, my 2019 Tournament Picks. (Also known as "if we bet against every single one of these, junior's college fund is paid for!" reading.)
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(*: 2010 KU (vs Northern Iowa); 2011 Pitt (vs Butler); 2013 Gonzaga (vs Wichita State); 2014 Wichita State (vs Kentucky); 2015 Villanova (vs NC State); 2017 Villanova (vs Wisconsin); 2018 Virginia (vs UMBC), Xavier (vs Florida State).)
(**: 2011 VCU (11), Butler (8); 2013 Wichita State (9); 2014 UConn (7), Kentucky (8); 2015 Michigan State (7); 2016 Syracuse (10); 2017 South Carolina (7); 2018 Loyola Chicago (11).)
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East Regional.
First Four Games.
* 11 Belmont over 11 Temple. Whoever wins this game is going to give Maryland the business on Thursday.
* 16 North Dakota State over 16 North Carolina Central. If you think I'm staying up until pushing 8pm on Wednesday to watch the outcome of this one ... then you know me well.
Also, on a personal note, Wednesday will mark (gulp) two weeks -- two f*cking weeks! -- since I last slammed any form of hard liquor. I knew giving it up for Lent would be rough. I never imagined how rough two weeks without vodka would be.
Having noted that, I consumed a few questionable shots on St. Patrick's Day that I to this moment do not know the contents of. So I ask: does this count as breaking the abstinence? I argue the answer is no -- if you don't know what you're having, how can it count against you? Some others argue that you'd have to be a brain dead moron to not know hard liquor is in nearly every shot you take, so I did break the vow. To which my response is really? Do you people not know how mentally challenged I am?
Anyway, the lesson is: never again give up something that means that damned much to your daily existence, I guess. Good Friday cannot get here soon enough.
Round of Sixty Four Games.
* 1 Duke over 16 North Dakota State. (seth davis voice) Sharpie.
* 8 Central Florida over 9 VCU. Anytime you have someone on your roster named Tacko, I'm at least picking you to win a game. Also, the American was damned solid this year. They deserved five -- Memphis was more deserving than either St. John's or Arizona State.
* 5 Mississippi State over 12 Liberty. If you think I'm rooting for a Falwell success in anything in life, then you don't know me at all.
* 4 Virginia Tech over 13 Saint Louis. I so want to pick the upset. Maybe in Bracket 2.0.
* 11 Belmont over 6 Maryland. Bend over and take it, Terps.
* 3 LSU over 14 Yale. I get LSU is reeling, but I view this like me making the hash browns for Sunday's St. Patty's Day bash at the Double -- in the words of my second mom: "not even you can f*ck this up". That's how I feel about LSU in this game: not even they can f*ck this one up. Baylor could and did. LSU? Don't think so.
(This was batch uno of three. All three got consumed before Kathy's corned beef and cabbage ran out. (stewie griffin voice) Victory is mine! Also, that's a lovely Grapefruit Shandy keeping watch over said hash browns. Image credit: me, via my iPhone 8 something.)
* 10 Minnesota over 7 Louisville. Please, dear Jesus, I don't ask much out of you in life. (If only because the one thing I won't tolerate in life is a hypocrite, and me asking for help from someone I rarely if ever do right by, seems, uuh, hypocritical.) But please, please -- not only let Rick Pitino Senior be courtside for this one. And sh*t, get Tom Jurich there as well. Even if it doesn't happen, Minnesota's the better team. They'll survive and advance. Hopefully to an Italian restaurant afterwards for a traditional Pitino postgame, uuh, spread.
* 2 Michigan State over 15 Bradley. Tom Izzo has one last chance to extend what I view to be one amazing streak: every senior class has made at least one Final Four under Izzo. MSU's last appearance in a Final Four was 2015. He needs a four game winning streak to keep the, uuh, streak alive.
Round of Thirty Two Games.
* 1 Duke over 8 Central Florida. Zion trumps Tacko.
* 5 Mississippi State over 4 Virginia Tech. In the words of Timothy B. Schmidt: "I can't tell you why". Just a gut feeling.
* 11 Belmont over 3 LSU. Frankly, I can't believe I took LSU this far.
* 2 Michigan State over 10 Minnesota. I'm not even going to ask how the committee set up two Big Ten (plus Four) squads to face off in the SECOND ROUND of this (hootie Johnson voice) toonumunt. This is indefensible. The Big Ten (plus Four) didn't get nine squads in. This matchup shouldn't even be feasible, let alone likely, to happen. Yet another reason to add to the #deathtothencaa file.
Sweet Sixteen Games.
* 1 Duke over 5 Mississippi State. My God. Hide the women, children, crippled, and mentally challenged -- this one has 105-42 as a final written all over it.
* 2 Michigan State over 11 Belmont. (sophie b hawkins voice) Damn, I wish I was your lover! No wait -- I mean damn, I wish I had the balls to pick the upset. Either way, it's a scoreless night at the Casa de Stevo.
Elite Eight Game.
* 1 Duke over 2 Michigan State. An instant classic. Also, you people have no idea how sick and repulsed I am, picking Duke to win anything.
East Regional Champion: 1 Duke Blue Devils.
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West Regional.
First Four Games.
* 16 Fairleigh Dickinson over 16 Prairie View A&M. There's worse things to fall asleep to.
* 11 Arizona State over 11 St. John's. Neither team deserved an at-large bid. And the winner is going to demolished worse than Army Group Central in 1944 by Buffalo. Still, gotta pick a winner, and Arizona State is clearly the better team.
Round of Sixty Four Games.
* 1 Gonzaga over 16 Prairie View A&M. This one is like me making a vodka tonic at The Pool: even if I screw it up, it's still a success. Gonzaga may allow this to be closer than it should be, but they'll survive and advance for forty eight hours.
* 8 Syracuse over 9 Baylor. If Baylor couldn't find even a quick fix for Iowa State's zone, they're screwed against the Fighting Boeheim's. And as a Syracuse fan, that's just fine by me.
(Note: I am aware of Frank Howard's unfortunate suspension that came down last night. I'm sticking with my predictions for Syracuse in this bracket, as I finalized it Tuesday ... and Syracuse isn't the only team with a major DNP about to happen, that I took beyond Round One.)
* 12 Murray State over 5 Marquette. Other than games involving the two teams I actively root for, there is no game I am more geeked about this weekend than this one. So just fair warning, if your route home on Thursday involves South Broadway or Wornall south of the Plaza -- the dude in a white Wrangler with his phone functioning as a television on that route, will be me, to catch every second of this game. Just give me some breathing room, and we'll all be good.
* 13 Vermont over 4 Florida State. It's not like Vermont hasn't beaten a 4 seed before. Now granted, Taylor Coppenrath ain't walking through that door ... but neither is Bob Sura, Sam Cassell or Jonathan Isaac *** for the 'Noles.
* 6 Buffalo over 11 Arizona State. The pupil schools the teacher. Also, if my name was Bobby Hurley (and let's all thank God it isn't, because if it was, Arizona State would have gone like 2-30 this year), but if my name was Bobby Hurley, I'd beg for and accept the UNLV job. It's perfect for him. He'd be Tark Junior. Just my $0.02 of advice.
* 3 Texas Tech over 14 Northern Kentucky. I'd ask how many directional schools Kentucky has, but let's be honest here: nobody in Kentucky has a clue which way is up, let alone which way is north. On the other hand, as my t-shirt from college that disappeared a long time ago once noted: "Texas and A&M: United By Hate ... And the Fact that Texas Tech Isn't a Real School!" I guess whichever mentally challenged SID can manage to get their team to Tulsa first wins,. I'm betting on Tech -- there isn't potent moonshine readily available in Lubbock. At least not like it is in Kentucky ****.
* 7 Nevada over 10 Florida. Has a 75-72 overtime smell to it. And that's a good smell, if we're being honest.
* 2 Michigan over 15 Montana. True story time! I've worked in the industry I, uuh, work in, for twenty years come November 29th. (I know, I know -- I have no idea how either.) I rode up the elevator today with the dude who hired me into this industry twenty years ago. (I know, I know -- he probably has nightmares to this day, about that decision.) Anyways, he's the only person I've ever known who graduated from Montana. So I had to ask what he thinks about this matchup. His response? "If we avoid getting doubled (up), I'll be happy." Your Montana Grizzlies fan, peoples and peepettes!!!!!!
(***: having the job I do, I get to see some confidential files from time to time. Let's just say, a former Seminole basketball player had one of the five funniest application / medical / death files I've ever read.)
(****: one of the greatest "you had to be there" stories of all time. ("the voice of reason" voice) "Yup, it's 'shine.")
Round of Thirty Two Games.
* 8 Syracuse over 1 Gonzaga. Go back to the four points at the top. At least one of the, uuh, one seeds is going down this week. My money's on Gonzaga ... although I haven't looked to see who Virginia plays yet. Also, flash back 23 years ago to the 1996 Final Four. Remember how it was a semi-scandal that a then 50ish Jim Boeheim married a then 20ish wife? Here we are 23 years later, and Buddy Boeheim is a major contributor on his dad's squad. How did we get here? Seriously -- how did we get here? How did the kid Julie Boeheim was pregnant with in that National Championship Game become a key piece of the 2-3 puzzle? I'm ... I'd say I need a stiff drink, but dammit, those are off limits for four more weeks. Anyways, Battle and Dolezaj (with Buddy Boeheim) confuse and confound the Zags into a first weekend exit.
* 12 Murray State over 13 Vermont. Go back to the four points at the top. At least one regional is guaranteed to be a Thomas the Train wreck. I project either an 8 or a 12 playing in the Elite Eight out West. The thing is, both of these squads in this matchup are (damien voice) grousely underseeded, if we're being honest here. It's not that big of a stretch.
* 6 Buffalo over 3 Texas Tech. I don't care how good that Tech defense is, they haven't faced an offense like this yet. Buffalo can drop 90 on anyone. I don't think they'll need more than 70 to pull off this "upset".
* 7 Nevada over 2 Michigan. Toughest game I've had to pick to far. Total coin flip. Might as well pick the upset, since this region is either going to put me in position to win every pool I'm in ... or cause me to (thomas rhett voice) crash and burn by Sunday night.
Sweet Sixteen Games.
* 8 Syracuse over 12 Murray State. Watching Ja Morant attack the 2-3 is going to be beyond enjoyable.
* 6 Buffalo over 7 Nevada. (fidelity ad guy voice) Why not?
(Note: that link above just keeps getting funnier as the decade unfolds, with all the #metoo and #blacklivesmatter stuff going on. And yes, it's still the greatest non-political ad of my lifetime.)
Elite Eight Game.
* 8 Syracuse over 6 Buffalo. Go back to the four points at the top. At least one team seeded seventh or worse will reach the Final Four. Might as well be completely homer-ific and bias-tastic and pick the team I root for. Buddy Boeheim in a Final Four! Jesus God above, how did we EVER get here?!?!?!
West Regional Champion: 8 Syracuse Orange.
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South Regional.
First Four Games.
None.
Round of Sixty Four Games.
* 1 Virginia over 16 Gardner Webb. Saying that this is "Virginia's best offensive team" under Tony Bennett is a bit like saying that something is "the best behaved a raiders fan" has ever been. It's like improving from a F to a D-. It's inconsequential and means nothing, because it's still unwatchable.
* 9 Oklahoma over 8 Ole Miss. Normally I'm inclined to love anything with Ol' or Ole in front of it. But not in this case.
* 12 Oregon over 5 Wisconsin. If there is a worse run conference in America than Larry Scott's Pac 12, I'd love to know what it is. Good Lord. Not even the Big XII under Dan Beebe was this bad. And all Mr. Beebe oversaw was the loss of four proven programs (Nebraska, Missouri, Colorado, Texas A&M), the destruction of three decades old rivalries (Nebraska / Colorado, Kansas / Missouri, Texas / Texas A&M), and the single most indefensible pickup in conference realignment so far not named Rutgers (West Virginia, which added then, now, or ever, nothing of value to the Big XII ... unless burned couches is what was sought). Having said that, Oregon is the one Pac 12 team that is winning a game in this thing. And they're winning this one comfortably.
* 4 Kansas State over 13 UC Irvine. If this game was being played in Omaha three months from now, I'd wager the (non-existent) family farm on Irvine. But it's not. And to those who argue Kansas State is screwed if Dean Wade doesn't play, I'd simply remind you, they made the Elite Eight without him last year. They're winning this game, and probably a few more, before their run is over.
* 6 Villanova over 11 St. Mary's. Look at Villanova's tourney record over the last four years. Exit first weekend / win National Championship / exit first weekend / win National Championship. I predict the trend to continue. I nearly picked a first round exit, instead of a second.
* 3 Purdue over 14 Old Dominion. Remember when Conference USA was a reliable three / four / five bid league and held its' conference tourney in a credible arena, versus the Cowboys practice facility? Yeah, me too. Purdue. Big. As in gigantic big.
* 7 Cincinnati over 10 Iowa. If this isn't a "friends and family only in attendance" matchup, I don't know what else could be. Nothing says unwatchable like a 41-38 finale this one is headed for.
* 2 Tennessee over 15 Colgate. (Pause). Yeah. Gotta.
Round of Thirty Two Games.
* 1 Virginia over 9 Oklahoma. I just don't see how Oklahoma scores enough to win.
* 4 Kansas State over 12 Oregon. I just don't see how Oregon scores enough to win.
* 3 Purdue over 6 Villanova. This might be the best Purdue team since Glenn "Big Dog" Robinson was bullying his way around the court 25 years ago. This definitely isn't the best -- or second best -- Villanova team of the last 25 months.
* 7 Cincinnati over 2 Tennessee. Rick Barnes has made the NCAA Tournament 24 times now. That's really good! He's made the second weekend three times. That's really ... not good. Throw in the fact this is a de facto home game for Cincinnati (being played in Columbus), and I think it'll be 3 for 24 for Ol' Barnes, reaching the Sweet Sixteen or beyond.
Sweet Sixteen Games.
* 4 Kansas State over 1 Virginia. If this game was played a round sooner or a round later, I'd pick Virginia. I just think with the extra few days, Bruce Weber will device a defense that will do just enough to stop this "explosive" Virginia offense. Just like last year against Kentucky.
* 3 Purdue over 7 Cincinnati. Again -- this is the best Purdue team since Glenn Robinson was a meaningful factor in our lives. And those days were before I ever drank, toked, or screwed, to frame how long it's been, since Purdue has been this good.
Elite Eight Game.
* 3 Purdue over 4 Kansas State. The Wildcats simply run out of gas after another improbable run.
South Regional Champion: 3 Purdue Boilermakers.
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West Regional.
First Four Games.
None.
Round of Sixty Four Games.
* 1 North Carolina over 16 Iona. (seth davis voice) Double Sharpie.
* 8 Utah State over 9 Washington. The second best Mountain West squad is far better than the best Pac 12 squad. Seems about right. #firelarryscott
* 12 New Mexico State over 5 Auburn. What team is Auburn -- the team that had one good week, or four mediocre months? I'm betting on the latter.
* 4 Kansas over 13 Northeastern. If KU loses this game, it will be the single most indefensible, inexcusable, humiliating loss of Bill Self's career. Also, if KU loses this game, I think Bill Self is gone for the NBA. Then again, I think he's gone for the NBA no matter when KU loses, so that last point doesn't really matter ... but the first one does. Lose this game, and in the words of the late, great Herb Brooks: "you'll take it to your f*cking graves!"
* 6 Iowa State over 11 Ohio State. A sneaky good matchup I think the Cyclones find a way to steal late.
* 3 Houston over 14 Georgia State. 82-52 final. Lather, rinse, repeat.
* 10 Seton Hall over 7 Wofford. Am I the only one who keeps wanting to call them "Waffle"?
* 2 Kentucky over 15 Abilene Christian. Might be worth 30-40 seconds of my viewing pleasure.
Round of Thirty Two Games.
* 1 North Carolina over 8 Utah State. This one will be far, far closer than one would think. In fact, I'll wager this will be North Carolina's second toughest challenge in the region.
* 4 Kansas over 12 New Mexico State. The worst team Bill Self has coached at Kansas (so far) was his first -- which got a four seed, a damned lucky draw (KC / St. Louis), and a huge 8 over 1 upset (UAB over Kentucky) to reach the luckiest Elite Eight KU will ever see. Only to then lose to an absolutely loaded Georgia Tech team in overtime in what is now my second most painful sporting defeat I've ever attended.
My way of saying, fifteen years later, 2004 can absolutely repeat itself.
(Also my way of saying, 62 days later, my therapy sessions with Stevo's Site Numero Dos' Official Spiritual Advisor, the Reverend Al K. Hall, haven't even come close to giving me closure with Patriots 37, Chiefs 31 (OT).)
* 3 Houston over 6 Iowa State. (Pause). Yeah, gotta.
* 10 Seton Hall over 2 Kentucky. Hopefully this is the craziest thing I'll say or type all day: the better team wins this one.
Sweet Sixteen Games.
* 1 North Carolina over 4 Kansas. The Rat Bastard finally wins one against the school he betrayed and sold out. (Ol' Roy is 0-3 so far against KU ... one of those three amongst the ten most satisfying sports wins of my life.)
* 3 Houston over 10 Seton Hall. How great it is, that one of the sleaziest rule-breakers in major college basketball, arrives back on the national stage just as the sleaze and moral bankruptcy of the NCAA is finally being exposed for the world to see? I think it's spectacular.
Elite Eight Game.
* 1 North Carolina over 3 Houston. It's not quite Clyde the Glide and Hakeem versus MJ and Sam Perkins ... but I'll take it.
Midwest Regional Champion: 1 North Carolina Tar Heels.
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Final Four.
* 1 Duke over 8 Syracuse. They've already met three times, with the winner of each game winning either (a) on the road or (b) at an (allegedly) neutral site. Somehow, I don't think Buddy Boeheim is going to be the X factor here. Blue Devils with a comfortable 12-15 point win.
* 1 North Carolina over 3 Purdue. Purdue's first Final Four trip since I was 3! I'm guessing that, in the words of Stevo's Site Numero Dos' Official Color Commentator (Emeritus), the great Dan Dierdorf, Purdue will "just be happy to be here". Tar Heels with a comfortable 12-15 point win.
National Championship Game.
* 1 North Carolina 78, 1 Duke 75. (imagine dragons voice) It's time. Let the sport's biggest rivalry finally meet in its' biggest stage, at its' biggest moment. Is there anyone -- once your team is eliminated, of course -- is there anyone who'd be upset at this matchup? Anyone? I hate these two teams with an unrivaled passion (UNC because of Roy, Duke because of another rat bastard who'll remain nameless), yet even I want this.
National Champion: 1 North Carolina Tar Heels.
Enjoy the games everyone! And until next time, hey! (sgt. esterhaus voice) Let's be careful out there ...
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