First, let's look at my least favorite stat this season: the opening drive of the 2nd half. The Chiefs have led or been within a possession at the half in 10 of their 14 games so far this year. Meaning just about every week, we have reached the half in position to win the game. That says that the initial game plan, at least, is solid enough to put us in a position to win. And yet, we've lost 8 of those 10. A big reason why? When we get a chance to seize control of the 2nd half, to impose our will on the opposition with a solid drive to begin the half, to set the tone ... we fail miserably:
The stats don't lie. The Chiefs have scored zero, zip, nada, not a single touchdown on their opening possession of the 2nd half in games we were a factor in. 0 for 10. In fact, look at the 2nd half scoring for crying out loud! Something clearly is going wrong in the locker room at halftime, because our offense is non-existant after the break! In only one of those 10 competitive games have we scored more than 1 2nd half touchdown, the week 4 win against denver.
The reason for this is simple. We're coaching scared. We'd rather lose a close one, know we "gave it our best", than risk embarrassment and a blowout by opening things up, taking some risks, and going for the big victory.
Our coaching staff is not thinking like a playoff team. They're thinking like a collection of individuals aiming to avoid the unemployment line. And when you start coaching like that, well, the 2nd half of 2007 and all of 2008 is what happens.
Continuing the theme of coaching scared ... another statistic, trend, whatever you want to call it, that drives me to drink is punting on makeable 4th downs. By that, I mean either (a) 4th and 1 outside of your own 30, or (b) 4th and less than 5 from midfield on. The latter has always infuriated me. I have never understood why you would willingly give up the ball on the opponent's side of the field, when the average NFL play gains nearly 5 yards (4.6 at last check). Why would you give up a golden scoring opportunity (you're already more than halfway to the end zone) if you don't have to?
The 4th and 1 thing though, has really started to bug me of late. I know there is serious risk involved in going for it on 4th down, especially on your side of the field. But come on man! Its a friggin yard! How often on a yard to go does the defense stop you? 10% of the time, if even that? I'd venture a guess that on yard-to-go plays where the offense runs it or throws a safe, short pass, they convert 90% of the time. At least.
So far this year, the Chiefs have chosen to punt on 13 "makeable" 4th down opportunities. In 8 of those 13 opportunities, the punt has blown up in our face, as our opponent thanked us for showing no balls and promptly put points on the board:
What I love about this, is that virtually every single time I argue Herm should have gone for it, his decision to punt blew up in his face. We've had 13 makeable 4th downs using my definition of makeable. 8 of those 13 when we chose to punt, the opposition immediately dropped points on us. I love it. Its what teams that get it do: they take your screw-up and shove it down your throat.
Herm had two chances against the Jets to really grab ahold of that game. He chose to punt both times, and both times the Jets immediately put 7 up on the scoreboard. He had a chance to really knock the Bucs out of the game here at Arrowhead. Yeah it was 24-10, but the Bucs only touchdown had come via special teams. Their offense had done nothing up to that point. Herm punts from their 40. The Bucs offense gets a quick drive off, puts points on the board as time expires, and has all the momentum entering the 2nd half, and they wound up overcoming a 24-3 deficit to win 30-27. Against the Saints, you have a chance to keep hope alive, a very makeable 4th down with 10 minutes to go, down 7. Herm punted. The Saints promptly bled 7 minutes off the clock and tacked on the seal-it field goal.
And yesterday, against the Chargers, Herm again had two chances to deliver the knockout punch, both times up 11. Both times he punted. He got away with it once. By the time we saw the ball again after the 2nd punt, we were trailing with less than 30 seconds to play.
What I also find interesting, is look at who the top risk takers on 4th down are in the league. In the top 10 teams (including ties) for most 4th down attempts, you will find the Patriots (4th), Saints (5th), Colts (7th), Cardinals (T-8th), Jets (T-8th), Bucs (T-10th) and Redskins (T-10th). All are .500 or better right now, and only the Saints are mathematically eliminated from the playoffs in that group. What should this tell you?
Simple: the successful teams take calculated risks that are designed to pay off. The Patriots are 13 for 18 on 4th down. The Colts are 11 for 16. Tells you they aren't fooling around on 4th and forever; they're putting themselves in makeable 4th down situations, and then trusting their offense to get the job done. And most of the time, they have.
"Stop Thinking Like a Playoff Team". That line so enraged me yesterday, I can't even begin to explain it. But these stats do. Our halftime adjustments don't work, as evidenced by being 0 for 10 on opening drives in finding the end zone. Our sideline strategory is horrid, as evidenced by passing up on 13 very makeable 4th down opportunities to extend potential scoring drives (and seeing 8 of those decisions blow up in our face, twice directly leading to game winning touchdown drives).
When you can't adjust to your opponent, when you can't take advantage of the opportunities presented to you because either you're too stupid, too stubborn, or too outdated to take advantage of those opportunities, its time for a change.
I want a coach who gets it, who understands where the league is headed and tries to be at the front of the revolution, rather than stubbornly stick to his outdated "punt and play defense" model that is broken beyond repair. I want a coach with the balls to go for 4th and 1 with the game on the line. I mean, as much as I hated the Vermeil era, God love the guy, Vermeil would never let 13 golden opportunities like the ones above go for nothing. He'd never punt in all 13 of those spots. And he sure as all hell would never head an offense that was 0 for 10 coming out of the locker room.
I don't know what the solution is. I don't know who the coach of this team should be. I don't know who the GM of this team should be. I do know who should not be filling those positions though, and its the current two occupants. The game has passed both Carl and Herm by. They come from an era that simply doesn't fly in this league anymore. And the sooner Clark Hunt grasps that reality, and sends those two packing, the faster this team can return to being the competitive playoff-caliber squad we came to expect over the last 20 years.
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