the week sixteen picks

"Oh Holy Night.
The stars are brightly shining.
It is the night?
Of our Dear Savior's birth.

Long lay the world,
In sin and error pining.
'Til He appeared,
And the soul?  Felt its' worth.

The thrill of hope!
A weary world rejoices!
For yonder breaks?
A new and glorious morn'!

Fall on your knees!
Oh hear the angels' voices!
Oh Night Divine!
Oh Night!  When Christ was born!

Oh Night!
Divine!
Oh Night!
Oh Night Divine! ..."

-- "O Holy Night", my favorite religious Christmas song, and nothing else comes within a manger's distance of it, for that distinction ...

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(Note up front: this week's picks are going to be the picks, the picks, and (almost) nothing but the picks, pontification, and prognostication.  

There's still a (not very) solid 22.56% chance I will make Soldier Field Sunday night.  So I'm trying to ram these through in the hopes that my Monday looks better come Saturday by lunchtime, than it currently does on Friday night, at dinner time.  

(Pause).

I swear, I miss the good ol' days, when my former boss Mary would just blindly sign off on any Chiefs related PTO, under the "hey, you wanna waste your money on worthless sh*t, be my guest!  Just so long as I get to laugh at you after your Chiefs lose!" policy we had in place for the first half, of the 2000s.  

(Pause).

Rams fans.  Still annoying as hell itself, twenty years and a return to LA, later ...)

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The Statisticals.

(Note: no Week Ten Picks were submitted due to real-life issues that trumped posting them.)

Last Week SU: 10-6-0.
Season to Date SU: 124-86-1.  Clinched a winning season!

Last Week ATS: 6-9-1.
Season to Date ATS: 111-96-4.  Almost cliched a profitable season!

Last Week Upset / Week: three and a half points short of a cover!
Season to Date Upset / Week SU: 7-9-0.  (Pause).  Yeah, gotta pull a Chris Berman, and load up on as many underdogs as it takes next week, to reach .500!
Season to Date Upset / Week ATS: 9-7-0.  (Pause).  On second thought, I might not pull a Chris Berman, as I've already loaded up on enough underdogs, to secure .500!
This Week Upset / Week: Browns (+10) over Ravens.

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The Non-Chiefs Picks.

* at Bucs (+3) 31, Texans 24.  Root for abject chaos for the six seed kids.  Abject chaos.

* Bills (+6 1/2) 24, at Patriots 13.  This line is drunker than a whore house rat when half of the Navy is on leave.  (Pause).  What?  (Sighing in disgust).  Fine -- this line is drunker than me on a typical Tuesday.

Seriously, Vegas -- you're saying this Patriots team, right now, would be favored IN Buffalo?

A Patriots team that barely survived the Eagles, should have lost to the Cowboys, and has been taken the woodshed, bent over, and given the business up the poop chute by the Ravens, Chiefs, and Texans in the last six weeks?

In the words of the late, (not) great Nell Carter: "gimme a break!"

* Rams (+6 1/2) 31, at 49ers 20.  2019 49ers = 2013 Chiefs.  Enjoy losing to an inferior team on the road, because you drop five of seven to end the season, guys.  As ... wow, and I picked this song as the theme back then for part dos heaven's sake! ...

... as Luke Bryan would note: "been there, done that".

* at "Shane" Falcons (-7) 24, Jaguars 14.  I wouldn't fire Dan Quinn.  Then again, the Chiefs play the "Shane" Falcons in Arrowhead last year ... so absolutely, I wouldn't fire Dan Quinn, if I was Arthur Blank.

* at Titans (+2) 34, Saints 31 (OT).  Titans at Texans ... or 49ers at Seahawks for your Week Seventeen finale?

Either way, as Nick Bakay would note: we're all winners here.

* at Redskins (-1) 3, Giants 0.  Only two more weeks of "Sur" William Callahan guaranteed to be a part of our lives.  Here's hoping Bruce Allen brings in Jim "Cock O' The Walk!at" Rose to conduct the exit interview.

* at Jets (+3 1/2) 31, Steelers 20.  This is going to finally be the game that justifies my drafting Le'Veon Bell with my first non-keeper pick.

Unfortunately for team tito, it comes at least five weeks too late to matter.

(Seriously -- that team went 5-8-0!  How?  How?)

* at Dolphins (+1) 13, Bengals 10.  How in the name of everything considered to be holy, are the Bengals FAVORED?  On the road to boot?  (Pause).  Yeah, I'm not laying out a cent on this one.

* at Colts (-6 1/2) 31, Panthers 20.  Abject chaos for the six seed only happens if Indy wins out.  You can do it Colts!  Beat a crappy Panthers team starting Will Grier, then beat a Jags team that is cleaning house!  You can do it Colts!

* at Browns (-10) 34, Ravens 21.  Why the NFL is so awesome -- both current one seeds (Seahawks, Ravens), face the very real possibility they made slide as low as the three (Ravens) or the five (Seahawks) over the next ten days.  (tony bruno voice) Beautiful.

* at those people (-7) 24, Lions 14.  Patrick "Mahomes" of the Chiefs is now 5-0 against those people.  Including 3-0 inside the eighth layer of hell itself.  (robert wagner voice) Spectacular.

* raiders (+7 1/2) 31, at "Super" Chargers 21.  This one is a pick of the heart ... and the head.

The heart, because I have enough friends that are raiders fans, that I want them to have a glimmer of hope for Week Seventeen.

The head ... because a raiders win, coupled with Colts and Jets wins, would keep the raiders alive entering Week Seventeen, which means "Super" Chargers at Chiefs would get moved back to 3:25pm (to sync up with raiders at those people), ensuring an extra three, four hours of sleep next Saturday night for this rapidly aging dude.

I'm all about the 3:25 or 7:20 kickoffs at this point, kids.  Sleep is a good thing!

* Cowboys (-2) 34, at Eagles 31 (OT).  FOX had to have protected this game.  That's the sole and only justification, for not flexing Chiefs at Bears out of prime time, and putting this one in.

FOX had to have protected this one.  And justifiably so!  The winner of this game is going to beat whatever unlucky team loses the NFC West, probably on Saturday night of Wild Card weekend.  This should be the best game of the weekend.  The rare one that lives up to the hype.

* at Seahawks 31, "Super" Cardinals (+9 1/2) 24.  Could be a sneaky good late afternoon alternative to America's Game O' The Week from the Fake Vet.

* Packers (+5 1/2) 38, at Vikings 24.  Are you sh*tting me?  Kirk Cousins -- 0-8 all time on "Monday Night Football", is nearly a touchdown favorite, without Dalvin Cook?

I'm not sure what makes me laugh more: Aaron Rodgers' State Farm commercials with Patrick Mahomes "Of The Chiefs", or Aaron Rodgers looking at this line, and contemplating wagering a game check on the absurdity of it.

(Note: I have no proof Mr. Rodgers would do that ... but if I was Mr. Rodgers, I would.  This line is indefensible.  You mean to tell me Aaron Rodgers can't keep this within a field goal, against a quarterback who has no business leading a credible Super Bowl contender?  (keyshawn johnson voice) C'mon Man!)

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Normal (and Occasional) Blurbs Skipped This Week.

* The "Klassy" Kevin Kietzman Tweet O' The Week.
* Stevo Neighborhood Update.
* Stevo Drink O' The Week.
* "The Flashback".
* "The Poem".
* "Disreputable" Mexican Food Truck Update.

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The Tailgating Plans.

If I am able to attend Sunday night, the tailgate will occur on my cousin Juli's front porch, before we all head way too close to Lake Michigan after the sun goes down, to take in the game.

I can live with that.

(Note: my cousin, her husband, and their two kids are all Bears Season Ticket Holders.  Much respect to them.)

The Watching Party Plans.

If I am not able to attend Sunday night, the Watching Party will occur at McFadden's, with the usual crew, and the usual cash allotment from those fine folks.

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The Chiefs Pontification and Prognostication.

Picking the Chiefs This Season:

* Straight Up: 9-5-0 (L at Jaguars, W at raiders, W vs Ravens, W at Lions, L vs Colts, L vs Texans, W at those people, L vs Packers, W vs Vikings, L at Titans, W at "Super" Chargers, W vs raiders, W at Patriots, W vs those people).

* Against the Spread: 8-6-0 (L at Jaguars, W at raiders, W vs Ravens, L at Lions, L vs Colts, L vs Texans, W at those people, L vs Packers, W vs Vikings, L at Titans, W at "Super" Chargers, W vs raiders, W at Patriots, W vs those people).

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Again -- it's Chrismukkah, so every post on this site has a Christmas theme to it at this time of the year ... but come on.

If we're playing in Chicago?

There's only one true theme, a kid my age can pick.

And please -- sing along.  Because God knows I'm going to:



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"Standing Tall! 
On the wings of my dream!
(I'll) Rise and fall!
On the wings of my dream!"

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This has been one crazy ass month for me.

I've seen my dad survive his (at last count) fourth "cardiac event" of this millennium.  (This one with a guarantee another one won't happen for ten years!  (Pause).  Yeah, right.  Also, this is why you got no Week Ten picks.)

I spent one amazing night of friendship with four friends who have (somehow!) never once failed to have my back when I've needed it -- and God knows, I've needed it, over the years.  You regulars to this site know who they are -- "The Voice of Reason".  "bts".  "Jasson".

And whatever the f*ck we have to nickname Tim as.

("Another Brick In The Wall"?  Or is that too obvious?  I always try to keep the "guilty" around here, as anonymous as I can.)

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I've spent a weekend (and one long-overdue epic man hug) with my best friend from college, who I hadn't seen in almost a decade, prior to last month.  A simple "hey, it's our bye week -- are the Stars in town?" text that exploded over the next fifteen minutes into "the guest room is yours!" plan confirmations.

(Note: if you knew Vineet?  You'd get how amazing this reunion was ... and how impossible it once seemed.)

I saw the only hockey team I give a sh*t about, win an overtime shootout against the only hockey team I irrationally hate.

On the way back from that epic roadie to see Vineet and the Stars, I stopped off in H'Ville to see Brett and Shannon, two friends I certainly don't deserve, and haven't seen since the Spring Race at the Speedway back in 2017.  Three hours and a few cocktails later, it's like we'd never gone three years between seeing each other.

(Note: so f*cking awesome.  (fist pump!))

I welcomed my buddy Drey (who's had the roughest year imaginable) and his new squeeze, along with "Sir" Thomas and his better half, for an epic raider weekend that was incredible.

I had lunch with my former boss from Transamerica, seeing her in person for the first time in pushing twelve years, a couple weeks ago.  Twelve years, and it's like nothing had changed.  She still mocking what I define as a "work ethic"; me still mocking her infatuation with every hot-as-hell dude who worked in our department other than me.

Oh yeah -- ain't we lucky we got 'em? 

Good Times!!!!!!

And then last Sunday ...

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I spent an epic eight, nine hours in the snow, watching those people get their ass handed to them by the team I irrationally love, five days ago.

(Note: the recap is still coming.  Some things, you have to spend quality time on, to get them to come out right.  This is one of those things.  (Pause).  Unlike this post, which is about as half-assed as it gets around here.)

The finality of that epic event, played out on Monday, when "Uncle" Bob, "Cousin" Chase, "Not Sure Who You Are" Pat, my Second Parents, and I, braved the elements (still cold!  Still snowing!  Still KC in December!) to have a lunch together at Jack Stack down on the Plaza.

The view was so cool -- snow falling, as you look out the window onto North Ward Parkway, staring at the gorgeous Country Club Bank building, and the awesome hotels and apartments across Brush Creek.  (Seriously -- Kansas City in the snow -- especially The Plaza -- is so damned beautiful, you'd think Five Seconds of Summer was singing about it.)

And it was as we toasted another successful Chiefs game, another successful season, another successful visit from my Jersey friends, that it finally hit me.

(Pause).

I am the luckiest son of a (not even remotely a) b*tch?

On earth.

Because I deserve?

Nothing that I have, love, and enjoy.

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So your pick for this week, is * Chiefs (-6) 27, at Bears 3.

But my wish for y'all this week?

Is to realize how amazing this life, God Himself gave us?

Is.

Realize that thousands of years ago, a Higher Power gave enough of a sh*t about us, to send His Son, to take upon Him every f*ck up, failure, mistake, and indefensible decision we've ever made ... and let us get away with it.

Please -- never forget that.

And if you doubt it, or forget it?

Please -- your life is worth it.

Even if you doubt it is.

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Despite that Holy Night?

Sometimes, the world looks perfect,
With no need to re-arrange.

But because of that Holy Night?

No matter what the odds are this time?
Nothing (has) to stand in your way.

And because of that Holy Night?

Every dark street?
Has a light at the end!

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To everyone reading this, I wish you nothing but the best, this Chrismukkah season.  I hope, and sincerely pray, that God above grants you everything you truly and honestly desire (if not need) in the year to come.

Because if you're reading this?

Then God loves you more, than I ever could.

And given how I feel about most of y'all reading this?

That's saying something.

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And as always -- please!

(sgt. esterhaus voice) Be careful out there ...

(Pause).

F*ck yeah -- he said "behooves us" ...