“Well now I get high, and I get low!
And if I can’t get either? I really try!
Got the wings of heaven on my shoes --
I’m a dancin’ man; I just can’t lose!
You know it’s alright, it’s OK!
I’ll live to see another day,
Where we can try to understand
The New York Times effect on man!
Whether you’re a brother, or whether you’re a mother,
You’re stayin’ alive, stayin’ alive!
Feel the city breakin’, and everybody shakin’ --
Stayin’ alive! Stayin’ alive!
Ah Ah Ah Ah, stayin’ alive, stayin’ alive!
Ah Ah Ah Ah, stayin’ alive …”
-- “Stayin’ Alive” by The Bee Gees.
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Welcome, peoples and peepettes, to Stevo’s Site Numero Dos’ annual exercise in futility: my NFL Season Prognostications.
For those interested in last year’s craptacular guesses, here is the handy dandy link to those predictions.
For this year’s predictions post(s) … well, you’re gonna love this, or you’re gonna hate it. The choice -- as always -- is up to you.
Because I thought I’d steal an idea that Terez Paylor used in The Star’s football preview on Sunday -- use a movie I love to set the tone for the season. (Note: I believe Mr. Paylor stole this from Bill Simmons, but whatever. I’ve never claimed to have a problem with liars, thieves, or cheaters -- just chicken sh*t cowards.)
In case you aren’t familiar with me, my favorite movie of all time … has held that designation, since the first time I saw the unedited version * of it, pushing three decades ago. I wrote a paper in a Survey of Film class I took in college defending it as the greatest movie of all time. I’ve posted before why I love this movie so much ** . So, in yet another attempt to get those of you who have never seen it to give it a chance, the picks post(s) this year is using “Saturday Night Fever” as a framing device.
Hope you enjoy.
And profit -- as always -- by wagering against everything I predict will occur.
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(*: normally I don’t much mind an edited version of a movie. The differences aren’t that dramatic. But the edited version of “Fever” is a national disgrace. Don’t waste your time on it. You have to have the unedited version, to grasp the full impact of this cinematic masterpiece. (Pause). And yes, this is where I warn you up front, this post will not be PG friendly. Let’s just say, “Fever” is one of the most foul-mouthed scripts of all time.)
(**: six years ago, the scene referenced in the post was my favorite scene. Now, it’s second. The scene the movie should have ended on -- with Tony standing alone at the base of the bridge, as the events of the final night reach their climax (trying to not give too much away here) -- that’s now my favorite, because of the position it finally leaves Tony in. Yes, there’s a real life reason why I feel this way. Also, before you mock me for loving this movie this much, I remind you, “Fever” was the late, great Gene Siskel’s favorite movie of all time as well. In the words of the person I’ve always thought was the Tony Manero in my life: “deal with it!”)
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Part Uno was The Also Rans. The eight squads that I believe not only have no shot at the postseason … but no shot at finishing within two games of .500.
Part Dos was The Mediocres. The eight squads that I believe will finish .500 (or close enough to it to qualify for the post).
Part Tres was The Fringe Contenders. The eight squads that will contend for the four wildcard slots.
Part Quatro was The Champions. Your eight division winners.
And finally, Part Cinco: The Playoffs. (That would be this post.) How the postseason will play out.
(Pause).
You’re godd*mned right I’m padding the posting stats with this bad boy …
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(Note: from this point on, it's just straight predictions, reasoning (or lack thereof), and pointless rambling commentary. No more movie quote tie-ins. Because I'm rapidly running out of quotes from "Fever" that tailor well to the game / teams at hand ...)
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The Wild Card Round.
* Saturday, January 6, 3:30pm CT (ESPN).
5 Arizona “Super” Cardinals 13, 4 Philadelphia Eagles 24.
Carson Palmer has won one -- one! -- playoff game in his thirteen year career. Granted, that is one more than projected playoff starters Carson Wentz, Matt Stafford, trevor siemian, Deshaun Watson or Tom Savage, and derek carr have won combined, but still. One playoff win in thirteen years. Even “Sir” Alex Smith has two.
This playoff opener will be a rematch of the Week Five (non)showdown between these two, also staged in Philly, that I projected the Eagles to win. I project them to win this one as well, and relatively comfortably. And inevitably, since a team with three fewer wins will beat a team at home in January than the team it’s facing if this occurs, it’ll lead idiots like Ol’ Pete King to b*tch and moan about the NFL’s playoff system.
The only thing broke about the NFL’s playoff system, is that it’s missing two teams. If you win your division, you should host a playoff game. Period. Winning something should matter more than being the first or second loser, irregardless of record. Period.
Fly, Eagles Fly! On the road to victory!
(For at least one week.)
* Saturday, January 6, 7:30pm CT (NBC).
6 “those people” 6, 3 Pittsburgh Steelers 41.
The last time these two hooked up in the postseason … well, I hesitate to call it a “hook up”, given that tim tebow was starting for those people that afternoon. Still, it was one of the great playoff games of this decade -- an overtime win on an incredible tebow pass to open overtime for those people.
These, quite frankly, are my two most hated franchise in sports. I honestly hate the Steelers more than the raiders. But there’s no way I’m not waving a Terrible Towel if it means those people get bent over and ask what position to assume, with the eyes of the nation watching it happen.
* Sunday, January 7, noon CT (FOX).
6 “Shane” Falcons 38, 3 Panthers 31.
I love next week turnarounds in the playoffs. The “Shane” Falcons and Panthers play in Week Seventeen in Atlanta -- a game I project as virtually meaningless for both squads. (I have Carolina clinching the division in Week Sixteen, and Atlanta already in as a wildcard at that point as well.) This one, will be for keeps. And this one, is going to be fun.
* Sunday, January 7, 3:30pm CT (CBS).
5 raiders 24, 4 Texans 13.
I also love playoff rematches from the year before (there’s at least one more still to come … and the astute amongst you, can already know what it is, before we reach the next round).
Last year, these two staged a playoff “game” that would embarrass the old school 007 Slapper Mode, it was such a disgrace. Cook! Osweiler! raiders! Texans! Only … ESPN! Oy. What a debacle last year’s wild card opener was.
This year’s wild card closer will be a much better played game … and a much more desired outcome, for the Red and Gold. (Trust me on this one. Just trust me -- you want oakland to win this game, Chiefs fans.)
The Divisional Round.
* Saturday, January 13, 3:30pm CT (FOX).
4 Eagles 20, 2 Lions 31.
The last time the Lions won a playoff game, I was a freshman in high school. Quick, can you name who the Lions starter was that day? (The answer: Erik Kramer.) They beat the Cowboys 33-6 in the single biggest “what the f*ck just happened here?!?!?!” defeat of the Jerrah and Jimmah Era.
The last time the Lions hosted a playoff game, I was a junior in high school. Brett Favre beat them via a last minute touchdown 27-20. It’s a day better remembered by Chiefs fans as the last time we won a playoff game at Arrowhead -- a 30-27 overtime thriller against the Steelers.
Let’s just say, Divisional Round 2018, is going to erase a lot of bad, bad, bad, bad, bad memories, for at least one long-suffering fan base.
* Saturday, January 13, 7:30pm CT (CBS).
5 raiders 34, 1 Patriots 17.
And make it two.
The last time these two met up in the postseason, it was one of the greatest games in NFL history. “The Tuck Rule Game”. It’s arguably the single most defining postseason game of the entire century -- the Patriots have never looked back, the raiders have rarely looked forward, ever since that game.
I am a very firm believer that sometimes, to truly advance as a team, you have to exercise your biggest debacle in the place it occurred. (Cue every fan of Nebraska Football who still remembers the 1994 Orange Bowl nodding violently in strong agreement over that last statement.)
That’s the NBA fan in me speaking. You almost always have to overcome your House of Horrors in their place, to make your mark on the professional basketball landscape.
It only makes sense for the raiders to have to return to the “scene of the crime”, in order to advance as a franchise. They’re going to do it. Ideally in the snow, via a ridiculous and indefensible ruling.
* Sunday, January 14, 3:30pm CT (CBS).
3 Steelers 27, 2 Chiefs 33 (OT).
And if two is fun? A threesome is more enjoyable.
(Although as my “Night That Will Live In Infamy” can confirm … a foursome is not necessarily more enjoyable, than a solo performance.)
I mean, a Final Four that includes the Lions (haven’t been there since 1992), Chiefs (1994), and raiders (2002 -- and does “Sur” William Callahan taking a team there actually count?) You can almost hear the CBS and FOX executives jumping out of their Madison Avenue (hey, that’s where I live!) windows in horror from here!
Here’s the thing when it comes to believing the Chiefs will flip the script on the Terrible Towel folks this season: look how close we were to doing it last year. I know everyone focuses on the holding call on the two point conversion that would have tied the game at 18 with a little less than three minutes to play. And yeah, that one hurt like a hijo de puta.
But the play everyone overlooks -- and the play that ultimately cost the Chiefs the game -- occurred three plays after the two point attempt (four if you count the kickoff as a play). The Chiefs had the Steelers in third down -- third and three, at their own 12 yard line, with exactly two minutes to go, to be specific. In reality, (john madden voice) Ben completed a seven yard pass to Antonio Brown, and the game for all intents and purposes was over.
But if the Chiefs hold there, as they did so, so many times last season? If Steven Nelson is a second faster and tackles Mr. Brown immediately, or jars the ball loose? If Dee Ford is a second faster and sacks or hits Ben as he preps the throw? If the Chiefs hold there? Then the Steelers are punting from their end zone, less than two minutes to play, up two. Odds are, the Chiefs get the ball back at midfield (or better -- I guaran-godd*mn-tee you Tyreek Hill would have trotted out to field the punt), needing what, twenty yards to try the game winner?
You betting against the Red and Gold at that point? Because I wouldn't.
For as sh*ttacular as the Chiefs played that evening nine months ago? They were literally one play away from still somehow winning the contest. That’s what good teams do -- they give themselves a chance on their off days. The great teams? They seize that chance and take advantage of it.
The Chiefs are good enough to give themselves a chance on their awful outings. In 2017, I believe they move into the great enough category, and win the rematch in the Divisional Round.
* Sunday, January 14, 7:30pm CT (FOX).
6 “Shane” Falcons 41, 1 Seahawks 38 (OT).
To the best of my recollection, two six seeds have reached the Super Bowl in my lifetime -- the 2005 Steelers, and 2010 Packers. Both won it. Also, I know of at least two other teams that had to win three road games to get there, and did -- the 1985 Patriots, and 2007 Giants. The Giants won it; the Patriots … uuh, they got Shuffled.
I love this Falcons team. If anything, I’ve probably undersold them in believing the Panthers slightly easier schedule will buy them a game the Falcons won’t win, to steal the South. But as Carl Peterson was famous for noting: “all you have to do is make the tournament. Anything can happen after that.”
This game might go down as one of the five or six greatest in NFL playoff history when it’s all said and done. And when it’s all said and done, I like the Falcons to emerge with an epic victory.
The Conference Championship Round.
* Sunday, January 21, 2pm CT (CBS).
5 raiders 24, 2 Chiefs 31.
The one season “Sir” Alex Smith had his replacement looking over his shoulder? He was a muffed Kyle Williams punt away from winning the NFC. This Chiefs team is better than any squad he piloted in San Francisco. As sacreligious as this might sound, he’s got far better coaching than he ever got in San Francisco, and I’m a big fan of Jim Harbaugh (as a pro coach. Not so much in college, to be honest -- I’d rather have James Franklin or Urban Meyer out of that division, thank you very much.)
“Fat” Andy’s fifth year in Philly, after a few years of utter frustration in the Conference Championship round? Finally saw the breakthrough, as the Eagles -- after three straight title game defeats -- pounded the “Shane” Falcons to reach the Super Bowl.
“Fat” Andy’s fifth year in Kansas City, after a few years of utter frustration in the Divisional Round? Will at least see an appearance in the title bout. And, well, in the words of The Lost Trailers -- “call me a dreamer! Say I’m a little naive! But I believe!” that Terrorhead will rock like it never has before, on January 21.
Seriously Chiefs fans -- just close your eyes, and imagine.
AFC Championship Game.
At Terrorhead.
Against oakland.
Just close your eyes, and imagine.
And then you can try to imagine how the Chiefs can f*ck that situation up. Because I refuse to.
AFC Champions: 2 Kansas City Chiefs.
* Sunday, January 21, 6pm CT (FOX).
6 “Shane” Falcons 38, 2 Lions 14.
In the words of the late, great RCW: “I may be stupid, but I ain’t that stupid.” I may have the Lions winning the NFC Norris, earning a first round bye, and winning a playoff game for the first time in three decades … but I’m not picking a Super Bowl appearance for them. Especially if they’re facing the defending conference champions to get there.
NFC Champions: 6 Atlanta “Shane” Falcons.
Super Bowl LII
* Sunday, February 4, 5:30pm CT (NBC).
6 “Shane” Falcons 38, 2 Chiefs 28.
I’d love to pick my team to win it all. I really would. But reality compels me to believe that if the “Shane” Falcons get back to this spot, they’re not losing again.
Super Bowl Champion: Atlanta “Shane” Falcons.
Still, this would be the ultimate Chiefs season, would it not? As everyone (including me) anxiously awaits the “ And the Mahomes of the Chiefs!” era to begin, the dude we’re kicking out the door quietly, and surprisingly, takes the Chiefs farther than any of us have ever seen them get in our lives.
Because what then do you do with “Sir” Alex?
Do you do what the Packers did ten years ago, after a stunning NFC Title Game appearance that ended in an overtime loss to the Giants, and go ahead and implement the planned switch to the (joe pesci voice) yute? The Packers kicked Favre to the curb for Aaron Rodgers, took a huge step back the following season (to 6-10), and then launched eight (and counting) straight playoff appearances that includes four title game appearances, two Super Bowl berths, and a Lombardi.
Or do you do what the 49ers did thirty years ago, and keep milking the veteran while p*ssing off the future? The 49ers could get away with it in 1990 -- in the pre-salary cap era, you could bury talent on your roster for as long as you wanted. Eventually it worked out, as Steve Young took over following Joe Montana’s injury in the 1991 NFC Title Game, and kept the 49ers as a powerhouse for the rest of the decade, until his own injury ended his career early in the 1999 season. Is that what you'd opt to do -- sit Mr. Mahomes another season and give Mr. Smith one final run at the Lombardi?
Or, worse yet, do you do what the Giants did in the early 1990s, and not only keep both for a year or three, but then finally decide on … neither. The Giants kept Mr. Simms and Mr. Hostetler for two more years after their Super Bowl victory, before opting for Dave Brown after the 1993 season. (Mr. Hostetler moved on to the raiders, while Mr. Simms retired and tragically wound up in the NBC, then CBS, broadcast booth for the next twenty five years.)
No matter the decision, Chiefs fans, be thankful for one thing, no matter what happens this season: there’s a decision to be made. For the first time in thirty years, there’s a decision to be made.
And if said decision happens after the franchise’s first Super Bowl berth in forty eight years?
Even better.
