“I know your eyes in the morning sun.
I feel you touch me? In the pouring rain.
And the moment that you wander far from me?
I want to feel you? In my arms again!
And you come to me,
On a summer breeze!
Keep me warm in your love,
Then you softly leave.
And it’s me you need to show --
How deep is your love?
How deep is your love?
How deep is your love?
I really mean to learn!
‘Cause we’re living in a world of fools,
Breaking us down!
When they all should let us be!
We belong? To you and me …”
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Welcome, peoples and peepettes, to Stevo’s Site Numero Dos’ annual exercise in futility: my NFL Season Prognostications.
For those interested in last year’s craptacular guesses, here is the handy dandy link to those predictions.
For this year’s predictions post(s) … well, you’re gonna love this, or you’re gonna hate it. The choice -- as always -- is up to you.
Because I thought I’d steal an idea that Terez Paylor used in The Star’s football preview on Sunday -- use a movie I love to set the tone for the season. (Note: I believe Mr. Paylor stole this from Bill Simmons, but whatever. I’ve never claimed to have a problem with liars, thieves, or cheaters -- just chicken sh*t cowards.)
In case you aren’t familiar with me, my favorite movie of all time … has held that designation, since the first time I saw the unedited version * of it, pushing three decades ago. I wrote a paper in a Survey of Film class I took in college defending it as the greatest movie of all time. I’ve posted before why I love this movie so much ** . So, in yet another attempt to get those of you who have never seen it to give it a chance, the picks post(s) this year is using “Saturday Night Fever” as a framing device.
Hope you enjoy.
And profit -- as always -- by wagering against everything I predict will occur.
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(*: normally I don’t much mind an edited version of a movie. The differences aren’t that dramatic. But the edited version of “Fever” is a national disgrace. Don’t waste your time on it. You have to have the unedited version, to grasp the full impact of this cinematic masterpiece. (Pause). And yes, this is where I warn you up front, this post will not be PG friendly. Let’s just say, “Fever” is one of the most foul-mouthed scripts of all time.)
(**: six years ago, the scene referenced in the post was my favorite scene. Now, it’s second. The scene the movie should have ended on -- with Tony standing alone at the base of the bridge, as the events of the final night reach their climax (trying to not give too much away here) -- that’s now my favorite, because of the position it finally leaves Tony in. Yes, there’s a real life reason why I feel this way. Also, before you mock me for loving this movie this much, I remind you, “Fever” was the late, great Gene Siskel’s favorite movie of all time as well. In the words of the person I’ve always thought was the Tony Manero in my life: “deal with it!”)
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Part Uno: The Also Rans. (That would be this post.) The eight squads that I believe not only have no shot at the postseason … but no shot at finishing within two games of .500.
Part Dos is The Mediocres -- the eight squads that I believe will finish .500 (or close enough to it to qualify for the post).
Part Tres is The Fringe Contenders -- the eight squads that will contend for the four wildcard slots.
Part Quatro is The Champions -- your eight division winners.
And Part Cinco is The Playoffs -- how the postseason will play out.
(Pause).
You’re godd*mned right I’m padding the posting stats with this bad boy …
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32. New York Jets.
Head Coach: Todd Bowles (Power Poll Rank: 31).
Projected Record: 4-12-0, T 3rd AFC East.
(Tony) F*ck the future!
(Dan) No Tony. You can’t f*ck the future! The future f*cks you! It catches up with you and f*cks you if you ain’t prepared for it!
So let’s start off with my 1B rooting interest, a squad I truly feel has a shot at 0-16 … but I truly feel will be .500 entering Week Five, before the floor falls in. My New York Jets.
A team so god awful, even Fireman Ed can’t show up and stomach Gang Green anymore.
There’s nothing positive here. They’re full on tanking for 2018 … and let’s just be honest here -- when the ONLY quarterback selection you’ve even sorta, kinda nailed in the last fifty years is Chadwick Pennington? Do you REALLY trust this braintrust to select the right one between Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen, or Josh Allen? Christ, they’ll probably draft Baker Mayfield because he’s the only one that’ll sign in the slot for them. (Note: I am NOT a fan of Baker Mayfield, at all. He’s not that good, people. He’s the Matt Cassel of the Big XII -- put him on Texas’ roster, and the Longhorns go 4-8. Which, to be fair, they'll probably do without Mr. Mayfield on said roster.)
They’re on GM Three in four years -- and there’s a decent shot it’ll be GM Four in five years come February. Their secondary is leakier than a baby diaper bought at a garage sale. Christian Hackenberg is in play to open the season at The Ralph.
And the owner is off to spend the next three years representing our country to the strongest ally we have! I mean, sweet Jesus, if that doesn’t sum up my utter and total disgust of Donald J. Trump “House of Wings”, what else can -- he selects the owner of the New York Jets to be our voice in London!
(Pause).
Damned right the future f*cks with you, if you ain’t prepared for it.
31. San Francisco 49ers.
Head Coach: Kyle “Son of” Shanarat (Power Poll Rank: 26).
Projected Record: 1-15-0, 4th NFC West.
(Tony) Sometimes? You don’t have to kill yourself, to kill yourself.
Yes, a team projected to go 1-15 ranks higher than the Jets with me. Because at least, after three years of self inflicted suicide, the 49ers appear to be backing off slashing the wrists on a yearly basis.
Four coaches in four years. Botched QB decisions across the board. Horrific drafts. The worst owner this side of the United States’ Ambassador to the United Kingdom. (Seriously -- at least when Mr. Obama sent a NFL owner overseas for four years, he sent a respectable one in Mr. Rooney. Mr. Trump sends a dude named Woody.)
Here’s the thing -- “Son of” Shanarat is a pretty solid coordinator. The one good year RGIII had, was under his control. The Falcons offense didn’t cost them the Super Bowl. And as much as I despise john lynch due to his (beyond dirty) playing days … he made the best trade of the draft, fleecing Chicago for a QB he wasn’t drafting anyway.
The NFL is better when the 49ers are relevant. Today, they’re not. Three years from now, they have a damned decent chance to be. And that’s a good thing.
30. Chicago Bears.
Head Coach: John Fox (Power Poll Rank: 20).
Projected Record: 4-12-0, 4th NFC Norris.
(Tony) I gotta have an afternoon off, and I’m takin’ it!
(Dan) If you do? You’re fired!
(Tony) I’m doin’ it!
(Dan) Then you’re fired!
Is there any way John Fox survives this season? Or to be more accurate, is there any way he survives the Bye Week (Week Nine)? If they don’t beat the Vikings in Week Five, the Bears are staring 0-8 in the face entering the bye … and staring two weeks to prep for the Packers after that. With the mediocre Mike Glennon or the unproven Mitchell Trubisky under center, throwing to only God knows who.
My cousins are season ticket holders for the Bears. Have been since before I was born, and I turn forty one in (gulp) four months. When I was up there for the family reunion in April, inevitably talk turned to football (it’s my family; like cracking open a beer or pouring a stiff whiskey, it’s guaranteed to happen). Kevin (the saner of the cousins) noted that “ten years ago, we had twenty (tickets). We’re down to six. Five if the wife bails.” To which his wife Juli replied “one more year of sh*t like the last five …” and I could read between the lines on that one.
Bears fans everyone!
(Also, my family everyone!)
29. Buffalo Bills.
Head Coach: Sean McDermott (Power Poll Rank: 29).
Projected Record: 4-12-0, T 3rd AFC East.
(Connie) So, are you as good in bed as you are on the dance floor?
(Tony) I’ll tell you something -- if you’re as good in bed as you are on the dance floor? Then you’re one lousy f*ck!
(Connie) Oh yeah? Then how come they always send me flowers in the morning?
(Tony) ‘Cause most guys don’t know a good f*ck when they have one!
And this, kids, is why the edited version of “Fever” sucks -- because the “edited version” responses to Connie’s queries? Are “because you’re one lousy jerk” and “I don’t know -- maybe they think you’re dead?” Just doesn’t quite pack the punch that “one lousy f*ck” does, does it? I say no, and since it’s my site, I’m possibly right.
Also, can you name the actress who made her debut forty years ago, playing Connie in this one scene, about thirty, thirty five minutes into this masterpiece? (It’s arguably the most famous scene in the movie -- the checkerboard dance floor.)
The answer? You guessed it -- Frank Stallone!
No, just kidding. It’s Fran Drescher. Yes, “The Nanny” got her debut in this film. (Pause). Yeah, that probably deserves negative Tommy Points, to be fair.
Speaking of f*cked though -- is there any worse squad to root for than the Buffalo Bills? Do you realize EVERY SINGLE North American professional sports team that existed prior to 2015 has made the playoffs since the Bills last did? Pick a league, pick a mismanaged roster, pick a god awful franchise -- they’re ALL more successful than Buffalo!
They might as well be dead, because they are one lousy f*ck (of a franchise to root for).
28. Indianapolis Colts.
Head Coach: Chuck “Strong” Pagano (Power Poll Rank: 18).
Projected Record: 5-11-0, 4th AFC South.
(Tony) She can dance, you know that? She got the wrong partner of course, but she can dance.
(Joey) Then why don’t you ask her?
(Tony) F*ck you!
(Joey) Which position?
I feel for Colts fans. You have -- for the second time in as many generations! -- a franchise quarterback … and have nobody for Andrew Luck to dance with.
Frankly, I argue it’s a credit to how good a coach Chuck “Strong” Pagano is, that he’s never finished worse than .500 in his five years at the helm … because (russ voice) Lucky, Lucky, Lucky! is all you’ve got. There’s no running game to speak of. The offensive line is, uuh, offensive. The defense made Brock Osweiler look like an elite quarterback. And I’m still hacked that the roof wasn’t open when I was there last October. It was a 65 degree day! Open the damned roof!
On the bright side, you stole the shining star of the Chiefs front office, Chris Ballard, to oversee your (sure to be quick) rebuild. My 5-11-0 projection is based solely on the belief that Andrew Luck will miss at least six weeks. The AFC South is so bad, that if I’m wrong about that, Indy has at least a coin flip shot of hosting whoever finishes second in the AFC West, come January 6th or 7th.
27. Cleveland Browns.
Head Coach: Hue Jackson (Power Poll Rank: 19).
Projected Record: 4-12-0, 4th AFC Norris.
(Tony, to his mom … played by John Travolta’s actual real-life mom) You’re praying for God to make Frank Jr. call ya? You’re turning God into a f*cking telephone operator!
Once again, the Cleveland Browns have turned to another option under center, this time DeShone Kizer.
This time? It might not end so badly. If my team (the Chiefs) hadn’t done what I wanted and traded up for Patrick “And The” Mahomes “Of The … CHIEFS!”, then I’d have been fine with Mr. Kizer as the option of the future.
Cleveland’s going to be better than you suspect on first glance, people. A lot better.
26. Jacksonville Jaguars.
Head Coach: Doug Marrone (Power Poll Rank: 28).
Projected Record: 5-11-0, 3rd AFC South.
(Stephanie) You know, you’re no place, on your way to nowhere!
For the record, I believed in Blake Bortles.
Nothing else need be said.
25. Cincinnati Bengals.
Head Coach: Marvin Lewis (Power Poll Rank: 14).
Projected Record: 6-10-0, 3rd AFC Norris.
(Tony) Alright, how much painting you want to do?
(Customer) After these two rooms? I wouldn’t paint my wife’s ass purple!
(Tony) What color is it now?
(Customer) You wanna know what color my wife’s ass is?!?!?!
(Tony) You brung it up.
(Customer) Actually, it ain’t got no color -- just stripes. Them stretch stripes.
The Bengals are the prediction I have the least amount of confidence in … because I don’t think they’re going to be 6-10 bad. There’s too much talent here. The core of five straight playoff berths is still intact. Marvin Lewis is one of the most underrated head coaches in any sport, in any lifetime. What he accomplished in The ‘Nati is nothing short of miraculous, given the severe limitations placed on him by the cheapest franchise in professional sports.
They have arguably the best quarterback situation in the league -- I’d trust AJ McCarron anywhere, should something happen to Andy Dalton. They might be the one team in this league with a better backup than starter, to be honest. Hell, he won that playoff game against Pittsburgh, until the Bungles defensive classless antics stole defeat from the jaws of victory.
And yet … it just doesn’t feel right. It smells 6-10 from here. I have Cincy at 5-6 entering its’ Monday Night showdown against Pittsburgh. I have the floor falling out from there.
Next Up? Part Dos. The eight squads destined for a .500 finish (or damned close to it) ...
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