"While she lays sleeping,
I stay out late at night,
And play my songs.
And sometimes, oh the nights,
Can be so long.
And it's good when I finally make it home,
All alone ...
While she lays dreaming.
I try to get undressed
Without the light.
And quietly she says,
How was your night?
And I come to her and say, it was alright,
And I hold her tight ...
And she believes in me!
I'll never know just what she sees in me!
I told her someday, if she was my girl?
I could change the world, with my little songs!
But I was wrong ...
Yet she has faith in me!
And so I go on trying faithfully!
And who knows -- maybe? On some special night?
If my song is right? I will find a way!
Find a way ..."
-- "She Believes in Me" by Kenny Rogers. Gun to my head, it's my favorite song by Kenny. If only because it so applies to my own life, far, far too many times in this life, so, uuh, far. And also, the Scotty McCreary version from "Idol" is kick ass as well ...
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Last week, I took a fond, fair look back at all the 2019 NFL Predictions I got so, so incorrect. You can re-read (or read for the first time) that post by clicking here.
Today? We take a fond, fair look back at all the 2019 NFL Predictions I so, so nailed. Buckle up kiddos. This one could get lengthy.
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The three look-back categories are:
* Predicted Order of Finish (Division and Conference).
* Predicted Regular Season Record.
* Predicted Postseason Finish.
We'll begin with the first of those, and work our way through to the last.
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For the record, I got sixteen -- sixteen! -- out of the thirty two NFL teams finishing position inside their division exactly right. Including the entire AFC East ... and the entire AFC West. (Pause). What? (Pause). (the late, great senator edward m. kennedy voice) You can bet your ass I picked the Los Angeles "Blooper" Chargers to finish dead last! Maybe in five years, people will realize how awful an owner Dean Spanos is, how incompetent a general manager Tom Telesco is, and how inept of a coach Anthony Lynn is. Until then, let the media continue to perform a sex act on the franchise every offseason! It's always hilarious to watch in hindsight!
The teams I nailed the finishing position correctly for, by division:
* AFC East: Dolphins (4th), Jets (3rd), Bills (2nd), Patriots (1st). Yes, a blind squirrel could have nailed the Dolphins and Patriots' finishes, and yes, even the most sanity challenged amongst us (hey, that's me!) could have tossed a coin and had it come up Bills over Jets. But still. I'll take victory where I can get it.
* AFC Norris: Bengals (4th), Steelers (2nd). When all is said and done in a couple paragraphs for the AFC, you will see I nailed 12/16 divisional finishes. That's damned impressive if you ask me. Sh*t, that's damned impressive even if you don't ask me.
* AFC South: Colts (3rd), Texans (1st). As a Chiefs fan, the AFC West should be my favorite division. As a football fan, the AFC South is my favorite division. Every year it's a clusterf*ck of Biblical proportions. Every year, any team can win it -- they're all perfectly mediocre. Any of them can go 6-10; any of them can go 10-6; none of them will do better than in between those two records. It's ... well, in the words of the legendary Anthony J. Bruno: it's "beautiful".
* AFC West: Chargers (4th), raiders (3rd), those people (2nd), Chiefs (1st). One would hope, after pushing forty years of unquestionable Chiefs fandom, that I'd know this division like I know the back of my left hand. Which, sadly, I probably know too well.
* NFC East: Redskins (4th), Giants (3rd). You know, I almost hate to do this, but it might be the last chance in at least my lifetime to have the opportunity, so here goes. Thank you Daniel Snyder, thank you, for bringing "Sur" William Callahan back into our lives for three months. I mean this with all due sincerity -- I fear our kids are going to fail to appreciate just how sh*tty a head coach Bill Callahan is. Not was, not may become -- is. He destroyed raider nation. He destroyed Nebraska football.
Again, with all seriousness -- how many coaches can claim they have destroyed one institutional franchise in the sport, one dynasty in the sport, one instantly recognizable program in the sport, let alone two! The man so destroyed the raiders in two years that they went from AFC Champs, to one playoff berth in 18 years since. The man took over a Nebraska program that hadn't failed to appear in a bowl since my parents were in junior high (and they're both in their seventies). He promptly missed a bowl. He missed two of them in his four years at the helm. To "Sur" William's credit, he did win the Big XII North in 2006. It is the last championship of ANY kind Nebraska has won.
As a Chiefs fan who has experienced way too many lows prior to this past season (* cough 2012 cough *), you have to look for the positives in a lost season. Getting to watch "Sur" Willy do his thing for the Redskins this past fall? Was appointment television in the Casa de Stevo.
* NFC Norris: Lions (4th). Back in the day (aka "two months ago"), when I still went into the office every morning versus working from home, I'd pass by the same homeless dude every morning at the bus stop at 39th and Broadway. On nice mornings when I had the roof open and the windows down, you could hear him shouting at noone in particular, clearly off his meds. (Or probably more accurately, on a med of some kind.) I mention this, because even that crazy dude?
Would have picked the Detroit Lions, to finish dead last. This is not an accomplishment or an achievement ... unless you count me giving in to common sense at long last to be an accomplishment and/or an achievement. And on that, you might have a point.
* NFC South: none. The division I clearly know nothing about. I'd better bone up on it; the Chiefs play the NFC South this fall * .
(*: I haven't done my Chiefs Dream Schedule yet, because the NFL Schedule Release is still three weeks away. But this scenario makes total sense to me, and will probably guide me in creating said Chiefs Dream Schedule over the next couple weeks, to be posted before the actual Schedule is released the first week of May. Oh, and in this scenario linked in this footnote, I'd predict "Shane" Falcons at Chiefs if the season opens September 10th, and I'd predict Texans at Chiefs on Thursday Night Football in Week Five, if the opener is pushed back to then.)
* NFC West: "Super" Cardinals (4th). The worst prognosticator you know (hey that's me!) couldn't screw this one up
* Conference Finish (Playoff Seed): Chiefs (2nd AFC). I got exactly one conference seed right -- our Kansas City Chiefs. That's it. I got a lot of playoff teams right. I even nailed an exact matchup, date, and time, in the season preview predictions for crying out loud. But I got the seeds wrong on that matchup. I guess if you're gonna get one right? Make sure it's the team you pay thousands of dollars to support in person every year.
--------------------
When it comes to record predictions made last September, I nailed four teams exactly right. I also had eight more within a game either way of their actual finish (ten if you count ties, and I'm going to, to make myself look even better than I already do.)
Teams Whose Records I Got Exactly Right:
* AFC East: Bills (10-6-0). We're not done with Buffalo yet in this post.
* AFC Norris: none. Considering I missed the Ravens finish by nine bleeping games, this is not even remotely surprising.
* AFC South: Colts (7-9-0). Good luck with Phyllis guys.
* AFC West: raiders (7-9-0). Good luck with Mariota guys.
* NFC East: Redskins (3-13-0). You fire one incompetent Allen (Bruce); you trade for a mediocre (at best) one (Kyle). In the words of Sonny and Cher: "the beat goes on".
* NFC Norris: none. Can't say I'm surprised.
* NFC South: none. This is the only division I failed to predict at least one team's final record, within one game of their actual record. Again, gotta study up on these people before the regular season starts, considering we play this division this fall.
* NFC West: none. Nobody's perfect.
Teams Whose Records I Got Within One Game Either Way:
* AFC East: Dolphins (Predicted 5-11-0 / Finished 4-12-0); Jets (Predicted 8-8-0 / Finished 7-9-0). I nailed the AFC East order exactly. Three of the four teams I either nailed their record exactly, or came within a game of nailing it. And the only team whose record I whiffed on, I missed by two games. Not too shabby. Also, you can just copy this paragraph when we get to the AFC West, because the exact same thing is true for that division.
* AFC Norris: Bengals (Predicted 3-13-0 / Finished 2-14-0). Poor Joe Burrow. He deserves better than this sad sack franchise.
* AFC South: Texans (Predicted 11-5-0 / Finished 10-6-0). Poor Deshaun Watson. He deserves better than this rapidly deteriorating situation.
* AFC West: those people (Predicted 8-8-0 / Finished 7-9-0); Chiefs (Predicted 11-5-0 / Finished 12-4-0). Quick -- can you name the last team other than those people or the Chiefs to win the division ... and the year they did it? (Hint: it's been over a decade.) And ... time. The answer? Your "Blooper" Chargers in 2009. I don't see the dominance of the Chiefs and/or those people over this division ending before at least 2021 ... and that presumes the raiders find a semi-competent quarterback.
* NFC East: Eagles (Predicted 10-6-0 / Finished 9-7-0). Three straight playoff appearances despite Carson Wentz' inability to stay healthy. That's some solid coaching right there.
* NFC Norris: Lions (Predicted 2-14-0 / Finished 3-12-1); Vikings (Predicted 9-7-0 / Finished 10-6-0). I never thought I'd type these words, but after the last two years in Detroit, it's a fair question to ask: did Jim "Corpse" Caldwell actually know what he was doing? Could it be that Ol' Corpsy wasn't that bad of a head coach? Or is Matt Patricia that f*cking retarded at his job? (Pause). Yeah, it's gotta be the latter. There's no way Jimbo was competent.
* NFC South: none. As noted, I know nothing about this division.
* NFC West: "Super" Cardinals (Predicted 4-12-0 / Finished 5-10-1). I have a good buddy who lives in Arizona, is a Cardinals season ticket holder, and to say he's excited about the "Super" Cardinals future, is an understatement. He should be excited. They're at least catching and passing the Rams this fall.
--------------------
Finally, the Postseason.
Playoff Teams I Got Right:
* AFC East: Patriots, Bills. We're still not done with the Bills yet.
* AFC Norris: none. You whiff on the Ravens by nine games, and the Browns by five, you're probably not getting the division right.
* AFC South: Texans. He may be a god-awful general manager, but as long as Bill O'Brien is the head coach, you can mark the Texans down to host the postseason opener with a sharpie. Because as long as Bill O'Brien roams the sidelines, the Texans are winning the AFC South.
* AFC West: Chiefs. Peoples and peppettes? We aren't through with the Chiefs yet either. And man -- ain't we lucky we got 'em? Good Times!!!!
* NFC East: none. My NFC Postseason picks were, uuh, atrocious.
* NFC Norris: Packers. The only NFC Postseason pick I was remotely successful in seeing occur.
* NFC South: none. If my life depended on predicting the NFC South, I'd have been dead nine months ago.
* NFC West: 49ers. I was far higher on the 49ers than most folks, but not even I saw their postseason run coming.
Playoff Predictions I Got Right:
* Bills at Texans to Open the Postseason. I got the teams, the location, and the time slot exactly correct for the Postseason's first game. I should probably bet the ponies, puppies, roosters, and/or rubber chickens more, because that's one hell of a trifecta to nail.
* Chiefs over Texans in Divisional Round. I not only got this pick right ... but I had the Chiefs scoring 49. They scored 51. I had the Texans scoring 38. They scored 31. Meaning I had both teams within a score of where they finished. Circle me impressed Bert. Circle me impressed.
* Packers Losing the NFC Title Game. I had them falling to Dallas, not San Francisco, but hey -- I got the outcome right!
* Chiefs Winning the AFC Championship. I had them beating the Patriots, not the Titans, but hey -- I got the outcome right!
* Chiefs Winning the Super Bowl by Exactly 11 Points. Again, I was off by a score: I had the final at 38-27 instead of 31-20 ... but still. I got the outcome and margin of victory right!
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And so, (mitch holtgus voice) for all intents and purposes, 2019 now has the book shut on it on this site. There's still a few things ** I might go back and blog about ... but what I wanted to post, I pretty much have.
(**: I really want to recap the trip to Nashville, and I'd love to do a "running diary" of how I spent the 4th Quarter of the Super Bowl. I just don't know where I'll find the time ... or more specifically, the energy, to do it. Because both that weekend in Nashville, and that fourth quarter, were one hell of a roller coaster ride.)
It's time to look forward to (barbara walters voice) 2020. The first wave of free agency is all but over, and the Chiefs somehow -- despite having less cap room at one point than I have money in my checking account, and no, I don't have a comma in my bank balance most days -- somehow, the Chiefs are returning 19 of 22 starters next fall. The Draft is in five days, and either Brett Veach will finally pull the trigger on a first round pick ... or he'll trade it to gain more capital (which I hope he does). The Schedule Release is in three weeks; I wish it was sooner, given how cheap flights and hotel bookings are right now *** , because the Chiefs travel to Tampa and New Orleans this fall, and I want to make at least one of those two, if not both.
(***: my brother and I were looking at bookings for Vegas in mid to late May. Right now you can get a room at $17 / night come May 15th at The Flamingo. That is crazy insane. And yes, I would risk my life to play some pai gow or blackjack right now. Kansas City has shut down 2.5 million people to accommodate 1,500. This shutdown is f*cking nuts, it is f*cking indefensible, it is probably unconstitutional, and it needs to end yesterday. #reopennow)
As much fun as 2019 was though, there's one thing to never forget, Chiefs fans. One thing nobody can ever take away from us.
Cue the Queen Voice!
We are the Champions!
We are the Champions!
No time for (those people),
Because we are the Champions?
Of the world ...
Saturday, April 18, 2020
Saturday, April 11, 2020
a fond fair look back part uno
"Now it's morning,
And the phone rings.
You say you've gotta get your things together;
You just gotta leave, before you change your mind.
But if you knew
What I was thinking girl?
I'd turn around!
If you'd just ask me one more time ...
Don't fall in love with a dreamer!
'Cause he'll always take you in.
Just when you think you've really changed him?
He'll leave you again!
Don't fall in love with a dreamer!
'Cause he'll break you every time!
So put out the light, and just hold on --
Until we say goodbye! ..."
-- "Don't Fall In Love With a Dreamer" by Kenny Rogers and Kim Carnes. God bless, losing Kenny was a blow, in a year full of them so far ...
--------------------
So, to my KC readers, how are you loving this shelter in place crap?
Personally, I hate it. I may be biased given where I live (I live in this awesome part of Kansas City known as Waldo, for those reading this that aren't familiar with Kansas City), but it's beyond depressing to see The Well has removed the tents ... and nobody's on the rooftop. To see that the Saturday market at Border Star is still open ... but all the sh*t that is usually sold that makes it so worth the trip a few Saturday's a month, isn't available.
It sucks to miss out on $2 margarita night at Chelly's every Monday. $6 burger night at my home away from home (The Well) on Tuesday * . Cheap taco night at Walsh's every Wednesday. Trivia nights at Lew's.
You can't pick a day to enjoy lunch at Tasso's. (The gyro is to kill for.) Or pick a night to enjoy dinner at Waldo Thai Place. (I think it's overpriced -- two solid glasses of pinot plus dinner sets me back fifty solid dollars just for me ... but have been told by chicas with far more competency at determining what a quality dinner costs, that getting out at pushing a (puff daddy voice) benjamin on a date, isn't unreasonable. Probably explains why I'm 43 and woke up alone this morning.)
I hate missing happy hour at Patrick's Bar and No Grill. I literally don't know what to do without my ultimate skillet this morning from Neighborhood Cafe. Hell, this is one of the two times out of the year I'll at least give thought to attending Mass ... only Christ the King is shut down, during Lent for crying out loud.
At least we still have Max's open for business as usual, unchanged and unaffected by all this panic ... but even I can eat a tenderloin only so many times a week.
And as if all the local restaurants, bars and grills that make this part of town so incredible being all but closed isn't craptacular enough, in the last three months, we've lost three shopping destinations / institutions as well -- not to this damnable virus, but lost as in "dead". Dave Smith the Lamp Maker, closed. The Big Lots on Wornall, shut down with pretty much no notice. And the hidden gem a lil' across the state line, the hidden Macy's in Prairie Village nobody seemed to know was there for fifty plus years, is gone-zo now to boot.
Needless to say, my biggest fear, is that Waldo may never recover from this, if it goes on another two months.
I pray that, as I so often am, that I am one hundred percent wrong, in my thoughts on that.
Because having said and noted that?
Glad you asked.
--------------------
(*: back in November, when dad had his latest (and God willing, last) "cardiac event", I took my mom to The Well for lunch on that first day. She demanded I take her back the next day, because "that burger was incredible". I may suck at a lot in life, but I know how to pick a bar worth being a regular at. Especially if food is involved. #barleys #lategreatzigandmacs #twisters #dirtybird #thewell #dailydouble)
--------------------
Every year, I post my NFL Predictions on this site. Since 2008 (when this site was launched), you can go back and review what my thoughts were entering the season. And most years since 2008, you get my weekly NFL predictions as well. (Because (fidelity ad guy voice) why not.)
This past NFL season saw something you rarely if ever see out of me: competency. Solid prognosticating. Thirty nine games over .500 in the regular season straight up. Twelve games above .500 against the spread.
Even in the playoffs, which if we're being honest here is a total crapshoot, I went one game above .500 straight up, and went .500 against the spread. (Texans / Bills was a push.)
Picking the Chiefs, I went 14-5-0 straight up. I went 13-6-0 against the spread. (The one game difference was the game in Detroit back in Week Four.)
Meaning, that for likely the first time in the twelve years I've been making NFL picks on this site, you not only would have earned money simply betting my hunches ... but had you simply wagered a decent amount on my Chiefs beliefs, you'd have broken your bookie. (Or at least shown him a level of love OJ Simpson never once failed, to show Nicole.)
--------------------
But as impressed as I am by my rare display of intelligence (at least weekly this past season) ... I am drop dead on the floor stunned, at my vision when it came to the season long predictions finalized way back on the day this past Chiefs season began.
(Here is your link to the final of the five full season predictions posts; you can access the previous four, at the top of that post.)
I may not believe in -- let alone practice -- much, when it comes to ethics and morality. But I do try to believe in accountability. And so, let's hold me accountable, for what I said would happen, seven months ago, shall we?
Let's begin with the bad and the ugly ... because for once?
There ain't much to report.
--------------------
Here's part of what I mean by "stunning results", even when it's in the "f*ck up and failure" file -- out of 32 teams, 8 of them, my predicted final record was off by three or more games.
That's not surprising, to be frank and honest. But of those eight squads? Three of them I picked to win ten or more games ... which all three did ... and I still was off by three games in each case!
So let's start with the predicted divisional finishes that I whiffed on by two or more spots. (Meaning, I picked them last and finished at least second, or vice versa ... or I picked them first, and they finished third or worse, or vice versa.)
There were only five of these squads, and none of them finished more than two off my projection. (So no "picked to finish last, and they won the division ... or picked to win the division, and they finished in the basement" flame-outs. That's bueno.) And those five are ...
* AFC East: none. In fact, I got the AFC East order of finish 100% correct.
(We'll get to the gloating portion of my picks in the next post, Part Dos ... which will probably be a hell of a lot longer than Part Uno. Note: this almost never, never happens, I'm that crappy of a prognosticator.)
* AFC Norris: Baltimore Ravens. Look it, there is no team in the NFL I was more wrong about than your Baltimore Ravens. I had them finishing third in the AFC Norris ... and to say I whiffed on their final record, well ... keep reading. Again -- there is no team I was more wrong about, than your Baltimore Ravens. Other than possibly ...
* AFC Norris: Cleveland Browns. Like a moron, I bought the hype. I had the Browns winning the AFC Norris at 11-5. They finished third at 6-10.
* AFC South: Tennessee Titans. I picked the Titans to finish dead last ... albeit it at 7-9. The Titans finished in 2nd, at 9-7.
* AFC West: none. A second division I got the order of finish 100% correct. (Stevo patting himself on the back for knowing the division he's lived his life, uuh, living, really well!)
* NFC East: none. I had first and second flip-flopped ... but like with the regular season, I did have the division coming down to the Week Sixteen showdown in Philly.
* NFC Norris: Chicago Bears. I had the Bears winning the division at 10-6. They finished third at 8-8.
* NFC South: none. I bombed on taking a flyer on the "Shane" Falcons ... but they only finished one spot behind my projected finish. (Inside the division, at least.)
* NFC West: Los Angeles Rams. I had them winning the West at 11-5. They finished third at 9-7, the first team out in the NFC.
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Perhaps even more important than picking a division finish, is picking a final record. (Since after all, most of us reading this wager on the over / under for wins for at least a few squads in (earth wind and fire voice) September.) As noted above, there were eight (out of thirty two) teams I whiffed on the win total for, by at least three games. Five of those eight, I was off by three games exactly. One I was off by four, one I was off by five, and one was, well ... we'll get to them. Let's just say, I was off on them by a lot.
Here are those eight squads ...
* AFC East: none. In many regards, I got no division more accurate in the 2019 season picks. Save for possibly the AFC West.
* AFC Norris: Cleveland Browns. I had the Browns finishing 11-5; they finished five games short of that mark at 6-10.
But let's move on, because there was no team I was more wrong about than ...
* AFC Norris: Baltimore Ravens. I feel like I should haul out a late-night commercial advertisement voice here, because I was wrong by not one! Not two! Not three! Not four!
(Pause).
Sh*t, at this point, I should haul out the classic SNL commercial "Super Colon Blow" voice here ... because five? No, guess again. Six! I'll give you one more chance. Seven!
Not even close.
Because I was nine -- nine! -- games off, from the Ravens final regular season record last season. I said they'd go 5-11. They went 14-2. When you consider that two teams (Titans, Eagles) got in at 9-7 last year? I literally was an entire playoff berth incorrect, on the Ravens record! You could plow that Titans bandwagon through the variance between my predicted wins for the Ravens, and their actual wins ... and still not scrape the garage door tracks on either side, I was so insanely f*cking wrong!
I should be embarrassed by this whiff. When we get to Part Dos, you'll understand why I'm really not that ashamed of it. Because this is the only prediction I truly have reason, to be embarrassed over.
Moving on ...
* AFC South: Jacksonville Jaguars. I had them at 9-7. They finished 6-10. Either way, I had them missing the playoffs, so not a gigantic debacle here.
* AFC West: none. When we get to the next post about what I got right? You'll drool over my knowledge of the Chiefs division, I think.
* NFC East: New York Giants. I had them at 7-9; they finished 4-12. I've predicted worse. (See Ravens, Baltimore.)
* NFC South: Atlanta "Shane" Falcons. Predicted 11-5. Finished 7-9. Whoops.
Finally, as noted farther up above ...
* The NFC Trio (one each from the Norris, South, and West): I had the Green Bay Packers, New Orleans Saints, and San Francisco 49ers all making the playoffs at 10-6.
The good news is, they all did make the playoffs, and all hosted at least one game once they got there!
The problem is, they all finished 13-3, and created one hell of a clusterf*ck to figure out the final NFC seeding (which, to be fair, I predicted said clusterf*ck at 10-6) in real life!
I've said it before, and I'll say it again: ain't we lucky we got 'em? Good Times!!!!!!!
--------------------
So, with the awful divisional picks, and craptacular season records out of the way, there's one last category to explore for f*ckupitude: playoff predictions.
And really, there's three that stand out, from those picks made seven months ago, and man, do they display f*ckupitude (which I guess is now a word?):
* The Cleveland Browns to have AFC Home Field Advantage. And also ...
* The Atlanta "Shane" Falcons to have NFC Home Field Advantage.
Not only did neither team win their division, post a winning record, or gain a playoff berth ... they clearly were not their respective conferences top seeds.
But perhaps my biggest gaffe in the playoff predictions, was taking the Dallas Cowboys to the Super Bowl. In my defense, I can't think of a single credible national (or D/FW local) pundit who thinks the Cowboys lack Super Bowl talent. With Mike McCarthy now in charge on the sideline, they have no excuse to not get there at least once in the next three years.
Because whatever one may think of the Mike McCarthy hire (personal opinion: it's not bad, but Dallas could have -- and should have -- done better ** ), let's ... hell, it's been a few months.
Let's play The Pyramid real quick, to end this post, shall we?
(pre-strokey dick clark voice) ready? Go!
(markie post *** ) Jim Fassel. Mike Martz. "Sur" William Callahan.
(stevo) bad early 2000s coaches!
(markie post) Jim "Corpse" Caldwell. Lovie Smith.
(stevo) god awful black coaches!
(markie post) No. Well, yes, but ... Dan Quinn. gary "krap of" kubiak. Jeff "500" Fisher!
(stevo) worthless white coaches!
(markie post) Uuh ... John Fox. Sean Payton. "Chucky". Tom Coughlin. Mike Holmgren. Mike McCarthy.
(stevo) competent white coaches!
(markie post) Wow ... uuh ... The Harbaugh brothers. "Fat" Andy Reid. Kyle Shanahan. Brian Billick. Barry Switzer!
(stevo) Super Bowl coaches!
(markie post) Yes! Yes! Yes! (hugs all around as the confetti flies ... **** )
Jesus. You look at that list of coaches who have, uuh, coached, in at least one Super Bowl since 1995? No wonder (villiam valton voice) Vill Velichick has made nine of the last eighteen of them, as the AFC's representative. Even I could outcoach some of those fine gentlemen. I'm looking at you, "Sur" William.
--------------------
(**: in case you've forgotten, Mike McCarthy was the Chiefs QB coach from 1995-1998. Meaning he botched the transfer from Montana to Bono, botched the transfer from Bono to Gannon, botched the transfer from Gannon to Grbac, then back to Gannon, then back to Grbac ... basically, the QB position was less stable than the San Andreas fault during his four years coaching the position. And yet somehow, the Chiefs went 42-24 (counting playoffs) with two division titles, in those four years. I guess some coaches really do fail forward!)
(***: so, apparently I was late to the party on this one ... but since this #kclockdown began, I've gotten into "Chicago PD" big time. (I mean, when USA, ION, and (I think) Oxygen devote between them five days a week to showing the, uuh, show, I can get drawn in.) Apparently, Markie Post plays the drop-dead gorgeous Sophia Bush's character's mom -- a drug-addicted crook named Bunny! Who knew! Markie Post is still alive and well, and now is playing a sleazy slutty chick named Bunny! How bleeping awesome is that! Now our kids get to suffer through what she considers to be "acting", like we had to in the 1980s!)
(****: also, I've been mocking "The Pyramid" on this site long before those "free free! free!" commercials for whatever company does them, started doing them. I demand royalties dammit!)
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The next post should be Part Dos of the look back at my 2019 NFL Predictions: a fond, fair look back at what I got right. That post might top twenty printed pages, I so nailed my picks last year.
And when you haven't nailed anything but an insignificant random one-off in a few years, you compliment yourself for nailing it, every chance you can (rimshot!) ...
And the phone rings.
You say you've gotta get your things together;
You just gotta leave, before you change your mind.
But if you knew
What I was thinking girl?
I'd turn around!
If you'd just ask me one more time ...
Don't fall in love with a dreamer!
'Cause he'll always take you in.
Just when you think you've really changed him?
He'll leave you again!
Don't fall in love with a dreamer!
'Cause he'll break you every time!
So put out the light, and just hold on --
Until we say goodbye! ..."
-- "Don't Fall In Love With a Dreamer" by Kenny Rogers and Kim Carnes. God bless, losing Kenny was a blow, in a year full of them so far ...
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So, to my KC readers, how are you loving this shelter in place crap?
Personally, I hate it. I may be biased given where I live (I live in this awesome part of Kansas City known as Waldo, for those reading this that aren't familiar with Kansas City), but it's beyond depressing to see The Well has removed the tents ... and nobody's on the rooftop. To see that the Saturday market at Border Star is still open ... but all the sh*t that is usually sold that makes it so worth the trip a few Saturday's a month, isn't available.
It sucks to miss out on $2 margarita night at Chelly's every Monday. $6 burger night at my home away from home (The Well) on Tuesday * . Cheap taco night at Walsh's every Wednesday. Trivia nights at Lew's.
You can't pick a day to enjoy lunch at Tasso's. (The gyro is to kill for.) Or pick a night to enjoy dinner at Waldo Thai Place. (I think it's overpriced -- two solid glasses of pinot plus dinner sets me back fifty solid dollars just for me ... but have been told by chicas with far more competency at determining what a quality dinner costs, that getting out at pushing a (puff daddy voice) benjamin on a date, isn't unreasonable. Probably explains why I'm 43 and woke up alone this morning.)
I hate missing happy hour at Patrick's Bar and No Grill. I literally don't know what to do without my ultimate skillet this morning from Neighborhood Cafe. Hell, this is one of the two times out of the year I'll at least give thought to attending Mass ... only Christ the King is shut down, during Lent for crying out loud.
At least we still have Max's open for business as usual, unchanged and unaffected by all this panic ... but even I can eat a tenderloin only so many times a week.
And as if all the local restaurants, bars and grills that make this part of town so incredible being all but closed isn't craptacular enough, in the last three months, we've lost three shopping destinations / institutions as well -- not to this damnable virus, but lost as in "dead". Dave Smith the Lamp Maker, closed. The Big Lots on Wornall, shut down with pretty much no notice. And the hidden gem a lil' across the state line, the hidden Macy's in Prairie Village nobody seemed to know was there for fifty plus years, is gone-zo now to boot.
Needless to say, my biggest fear, is that Waldo may never recover from this, if it goes on another two months.
I pray that, as I so often am, that I am one hundred percent wrong, in my thoughts on that.
Because having said and noted that?
Glad you asked.
--------------------
(*: back in November, when dad had his latest (and God willing, last) "cardiac event", I took my mom to The Well for lunch on that first day. She demanded I take her back the next day, because "that burger was incredible". I may suck at a lot in life, but I know how to pick a bar worth being a regular at. Especially if food is involved. #barleys #lategreatzigandmacs #twisters #dirtybird #thewell #dailydouble)
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Every year, I post my NFL Predictions on this site. Since 2008 (when this site was launched), you can go back and review what my thoughts were entering the season. And most years since 2008, you get my weekly NFL predictions as well. (Because (fidelity ad guy voice) why not.)
This past NFL season saw something you rarely if ever see out of me: competency. Solid prognosticating. Thirty nine games over .500 in the regular season straight up. Twelve games above .500 against the spread.
Even in the playoffs, which if we're being honest here is a total crapshoot, I went one game above .500 straight up, and went .500 against the spread. (Texans / Bills was a push.)
Picking the Chiefs, I went 14-5-0 straight up. I went 13-6-0 against the spread. (The one game difference was the game in Detroit back in Week Four.)
Meaning, that for likely the first time in the twelve years I've been making NFL picks on this site, you not only would have earned money simply betting my hunches ... but had you simply wagered a decent amount on my Chiefs beliefs, you'd have broken your bookie. (Or at least shown him a level of love OJ Simpson never once failed, to show Nicole.)
--------------------
But as impressed as I am by my rare display of intelligence (at least weekly this past season) ... I am drop dead on the floor stunned, at my vision when it came to the season long predictions finalized way back on the day this past Chiefs season began.
(Here is your link to the final of the five full season predictions posts; you can access the previous four, at the top of that post.)
I may not believe in -- let alone practice -- much, when it comes to ethics and morality. But I do try to believe in accountability. And so, let's hold me accountable, for what I said would happen, seven months ago, shall we?
Let's begin with the bad and the ugly ... because for once?
There ain't much to report.
--------------------
Here's part of what I mean by "stunning results", even when it's in the "f*ck up and failure" file -- out of 32 teams, 8 of them, my predicted final record was off by three or more games.
That's not surprising, to be frank and honest. But of those eight squads? Three of them I picked to win ten or more games ... which all three did ... and I still was off by three games in each case!
So let's start with the predicted divisional finishes that I whiffed on by two or more spots. (Meaning, I picked them last and finished at least second, or vice versa ... or I picked them first, and they finished third or worse, or vice versa.)
There were only five of these squads, and none of them finished more than two off my projection. (So no "picked to finish last, and they won the division ... or picked to win the division, and they finished in the basement" flame-outs. That's bueno.) And those five are ...
* AFC East: none. In fact, I got the AFC East order of finish 100% correct.
(We'll get to the gloating portion of my picks in the next post, Part Dos ... which will probably be a hell of a lot longer than Part Uno. Note: this almost never, never happens, I'm that crappy of a prognosticator.)
* AFC Norris: Baltimore Ravens. Look it, there is no team in the NFL I was more wrong about than your Baltimore Ravens. I had them finishing third in the AFC Norris ... and to say I whiffed on their final record, well ... keep reading. Again -- there is no team I was more wrong about, than your Baltimore Ravens. Other than possibly ...
* AFC Norris: Cleveland Browns. Like a moron, I bought the hype. I had the Browns winning the AFC Norris at 11-5. They finished third at 6-10.
* AFC South: Tennessee Titans. I picked the Titans to finish dead last ... albeit it at 7-9. The Titans finished in 2nd, at 9-7.
* AFC West: none. A second division I got the order of finish 100% correct. (Stevo patting himself on the back for knowing the division he's lived his life, uuh, living, really well!)
* NFC East: none. I had first and second flip-flopped ... but like with the regular season, I did have the division coming down to the Week Sixteen showdown in Philly.
* NFC Norris: Chicago Bears. I had the Bears winning the division at 10-6. They finished third at 8-8.
* NFC South: none. I bombed on taking a flyer on the "Shane" Falcons ... but they only finished one spot behind my projected finish. (Inside the division, at least.)
* NFC West: Los Angeles Rams. I had them winning the West at 11-5. They finished third at 9-7, the first team out in the NFC.
--------------------
Perhaps even more important than picking a division finish, is picking a final record. (Since after all, most of us reading this wager on the over / under for wins for at least a few squads in (earth wind and fire voice) September.) As noted above, there were eight (out of thirty two) teams I whiffed on the win total for, by at least three games. Five of those eight, I was off by three games exactly. One I was off by four, one I was off by five, and one was, well ... we'll get to them. Let's just say, I was off on them by a lot.
Here are those eight squads ...
* AFC East: none. In many regards, I got no division more accurate in the 2019 season picks. Save for possibly the AFC West.
* AFC Norris: Cleveland Browns. I had the Browns finishing 11-5; they finished five games short of that mark at 6-10.
But let's move on, because there was no team I was more wrong about than ...
* AFC Norris: Baltimore Ravens. I feel like I should haul out a late-night commercial advertisement voice here, because I was wrong by not one! Not two! Not three! Not four!
(Pause).
Sh*t, at this point, I should haul out the classic SNL commercial "Super Colon Blow" voice here ... because five? No, guess again. Six! I'll give you one more chance. Seven!
Not even close.
Because I was nine -- nine! -- games off, from the Ravens final regular season record last season. I said they'd go 5-11. They went 14-2. When you consider that two teams (Titans, Eagles) got in at 9-7 last year? I literally was an entire playoff berth incorrect, on the Ravens record! You could plow that Titans bandwagon through the variance between my predicted wins for the Ravens, and their actual wins ... and still not scrape the garage door tracks on either side, I was so insanely f*cking wrong!
I should be embarrassed by this whiff. When we get to Part Dos, you'll understand why I'm really not that ashamed of it. Because this is the only prediction I truly have reason, to be embarrassed over.
Moving on ...
* AFC South: Jacksonville Jaguars. I had them at 9-7. They finished 6-10. Either way, I had them missing the playoffs, so not a gigantic debacle here.
* AFC West: none. When we get to the next post about what I got right? You'll drool over my knowledge of the Chiefs division, I think.
* NFC East: New York Giants. I had them at 7-9; they finished 4-12. I've predicted worse. (See Ravens, Baltimore.)
* NFC South: Atlanta "Shane" Falcons. Predicted 11-5. Finished 7-9. Whoops.
Finally, as noted farther up above ...
* The NFC Trio (one each from the Norris, South, and West): I had the Green Bay Packers, New Orleans Saints, and San Francisco 49ers all making the playoffs at 10-6.
The good news is, they all did make the playoffs, and all hosted at least one game once they got there!
The problem is, they all finished 13-3, and created one hell of a clusterf*ck to figure out the final NFC seeding (which, to be fair, I predicted said clusterf*ck at 10-6) in real life!
I've said it before, and I'll say it again: ain't we lucky we got 'em? Good Times!!!!!!!
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So, with the awful divisional picks, and craptacular season records out of the way, there's one last category to explore for f*ckupitude: playoff predictions.
And really, there's three that stand out, from those picks made seven months ago, and man, do they display f*ckupitude (which I guess is now a word?):
* The Cleveland Browns to have AFC Home Field Advantage. And also ...
* The Atlanta "Shane" Falcons to have NFC Home Field Advantage.
Not only did neither team win their division, post a winning record, or gain a playoff berth ... they clearly were not their respective conferences top seeds.
But perhaps my biggest gaffe in the playoff predictions, was taking the Dallas Cowboys to the Super Bowl. In my defense, I can't think of a single credible national (or D/FW local) pundit who thinks the Cowboys lack Super Bowl talent. With Mike McCarthy now in charge on the sideline, they have no excuse to not get there at least once in the next three years.
Because whatever one may think of the Mike McCarthy hire (personal opinion: it's not bad, but Dallas could have -- and should have -- done better ** ), let's ... hell, it's been a few months.
Let's play The Pyramid real quick, to end this post, shall we?
(pre-strokey dick clark voice) ready? Go!
(markie post *** ) Jim Fassel. Mike Martz. "Sur" William Callahan.
(stevo) bad early 2000s coaches!
(markie post) Jim "Corpse" Caldwell. Lovie Smith.
(stevo) god awful black coaches!
(markie post) No. Well, yes, but ... Dan Quinn. gary "krap of" kubiak. Jeff "500" Fisher!
(stevo) worthless white coaches!
(markie post) Uuh ... John Fox. Sean Payton. "Chucky". Tom Coughlin. Mike Holmgren. Mike McCarthy.
(stevo) competent white coaches!
(markie post) Wow ... uuh ... The Harbaugh brothers. "Fat" Andy Reid. Kyle Shanahan. Brian Billick. Barry Switzer!
(stevo) Super Bowl coaches!
(markie post) Yes! Yes! Yes! (hugs all around as the confetti flies ... **** )
Jesus. You look at that list of coaches who have, uuh, coached, in at least one Super Bowl since 1995? No wonder (villiam valton voice) Vill Velichick has made nine of the last eighteen of them, as the AFC's representative. Even I could outcoach some of those fine gentlemen. I'm looking at you, "Sur" William.
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(**: in case you've forgotten, Mike McCarthy was the Chiefs QB coach from 1995-1998. Meaning he botched the transfer from Montana to Bono, botched the transfer from Bono to Gannon, botched the transfer from Gannon to Grbac, then back to Gannon, then back to Grbac ... basically, the QB position was less stable than the San Andreas fault during his four years coaching the position. And yet somehow, the Chiefs went 42-24 (counting playoffs) with two division titles, in those four years. I guess some coaches really do fail forward!)
(***: so, apparently I was late to the party on this one ... but since this #kclockdown began, I've gotten into "Chicago PD" big time. (I mean, when USA, ION, and (I think) Oxygen devote between them five days a week to showing the, uuh, show, I can get drawn in.) Apparently, Markie Post plays the drop-dead gorgeous Sophia Bush's character's mom -- a drug-addicted crook named Bunny! Who knew! Markie Post is still alive and well, and now is playing a sleazy slutty chick named Bunny! How bleeping awesome is that! Now our kids get to suffer through what she considers to be "acting", like we had to in the 1980s!)
(****: also, I've been mocking "The Pyramid" on this site long before those "free free! free!" commercials for whatever company does them, started doing them. I demand royalties dammit!)
--------------------
The next post should be Part Dos of the look back at my 2019 NFL Predictions: a fond, fair look back at what I got right. That post might top twenty printed pages, I so nailed my picks last year.
And when you haven't nailed anything but an insignificant random one-off in a few years, you compliment yourself for nailing it, every chance you can (rimshot!) ...
Friday, April 10, 2020
that time i was one short of being right ...
"You don't have to go now honey;
Call and tell 'em you won't be in today.
Baby, there ain't nothing at the office?
So important it can't wait!
I'm thankful for the weekend,
But two days in heaven just ain't gonna do.
This is gonna take forever, darlin --
Girl, I just got started loving you!"
-- "Just Got Started Loving You" by James Otto.
--------------------
The one thing that stood out over this season -- especially this postseason -- above all, was the Chiefs remarkable ability to rally from remarkable deficits.
In all three playoff games, over the span of those four magical weekends none of us would trade for damned near anything, the opposition scored first. In all three playoff games, over those four epic weekends, the Chiefs trailed by double digits at some points. And in all three playoff games, over those four nearly indescribable weekends, the Chiefs won by double digits.
A smart person would argue that you don't accomplish comebacks like we witnessed in a vacuum. Hell, even dumb f*ck morons like me would argue that. And for once, the smart and sane, as well as the intellectually questionable and clinically mentally challenged like me, agree!
Because one thing that hit me while working on the next two posts after this ... is that, in the words of Stevo's Site Numero Dos' Official Color Commentator (Emeritus), the legendary Dan Dierdorf: "we have seen it before".
Sh*t, we saw it inside Arrowhead, fourteen years ago.
Against "Fat" Andy Reid to boot.
--------------------
A few months ago, I noted what a difference a coach can make. I pointed out just how dramatically (and unbelievably quickly) "Fat" Andy turned the Chiefs from the doormat of the division, the outhouse of the conference, and the "whatever the hell passes as sanitation" in "Survivor" * of the league.
What truly is dramatic and unbelievable, is that I of all people didn't see it coming. Yes, I am the one who loves to point out (via a no-doubt stolen quote) that "there are lies, damned lies, and statistics" ... and yet, my professional life involves nothing but those lies, damned lies, and statistics. I work as a reinsurance accountant for a fairly decently known local KC insurance company. Prior to that, I did the same job for two universally known insurance companies for pushing twenty years.
(Think "instantly recognizable building in the heart of San Francisco", and "largest city of the most neutral company on Planet Earth", for those corporations, both of whom paid me thousands of dollars to (old school doormat voice) go away ** . In the words of Sammy Sosa: "God bless America, it's a beautiful country!")
I am paid to not only report the actuals of life ... but to project and manage the risks in life. I am paid to literally study the past, and track the present, to predict the future.
(Somehow, "company I work for" is afloat. Circle me stunned, Bert. Circle me stunned *** .)
And yet somehow, despite the research on that linked post above that opened this section of these poorly prepared thoughts (which involved a few hours playing around on one of my favorite sites, pro-football-reference.com), despite the statement of the present, and analysis of the past, I failed to do one thing to truly predict the future to come.
I stopped at seven years prior, to "Fat" Andy's arrival.
Because in the accounting world, seven years makes sense. It's what the IRS "politely" asks you to hold onto records for. It's the time span most financial audits cover, if things are ugly. And certainly, in professional sports, if not in life, if you haven't made verifiable progress in seven years? If you haven't cleaned up the f*ck ups and failures of your franchise seven years later? You're probably living the lyrics to the "Good Times" theme song.
My mistake was not going back seven years to research that post.
My mistake was not going back eight.
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(*: I hate that it's a season of all past winners ... but my God, is this year's "Survivor" phenomenal. Also, I so would have pulled a Sandra too, arriving at Eviction Island. (The worst twist in this show ever, but whatever. Double also, Adam is still me, if I ever played this game. Thinks he's smarter than the average bear, gets outplayed and outthought at every step, yet somehow charms enough people into keeping him around, because he's that damned likable, all while people scream "for Christ's sake, put a shirt on already!" Although he doesn't have the shaky right hand on Day Seventeen from severe alcohol withdrawal, that I would. Because as tempting as trading a fire token for Bud Light would be ... (stevo voice) it's Bud Light! I'd rather shock myself into sobriety.)
(**: I had to emergency dogsit for my brother for a night right before KC went on lockdown due to this sh*ttacular virus. My brother lives about a mile from where I used to fifteen years ago. I drove by the old house on the way home, just to see what it looks like nowadays ... and had to laugh. Because while it looks different (yet recognizable) on the outside? There, on a Saturday morning, was a large black dog lying on the front porch. I'm guessing the Jehovah's Witnesses still come around about 10am every Saturday? Because God love his lazy ass, there were only three things in life that ever motivated the late, great Priest to bark, let alone stand up. His addiction to Meaty Bones, his fear of a vacuum cleaner ... and the traveling pair of Jehovah's Witnesses every Saturday. (Pause). Damn right we left him on the front porch every weekend for a reason.)
(***: this is an abject lie. I may suck at 80% of what I do, and God knows my personal life has been a Thomas the Train level wreck of epic proportions at times ... but I can literally write my ticket to any reinsurer who wants me, I'm that fairly well known in this industry. As my buddy Pickell would note: "put it this way": I haven't submitted an application for a job since the late 1990s ... and yet, haven't been unemployed for a day I pretty much didn't choose to be, since November 1999. The lesson? Hell if I know. I'm just good at my job, I guess.)
--------------------
Week Four 2005 was, in hindsight, one of the great, epic Chiefs regular season games I've ever been privileged to attend.
For starters, you couldn't have asked for a better day to tailgate. The Pro-Football-Reference boxscore notes it was 87 and sunny at kickoff. In early October. In Kansas City. I mean, how do you top that? (Other than by going up maybe another six to eight degrees?)
Plus it was a 3:15pm CT start. Meaning we got to enjoy the entire glorious day outdoors. And the eyes of the nation were on our lovely lil' stadium, via the national FOX broadcast.
Again, what more can you ask for to open October?
Also, the game itself appeared to be epic -- your defending NFC Champion Philadelphia Eagles, visiting our beloved Red and Gold. (And in case you think the 2005 Chiefs, just because they missed the playoffs, were not a force to be reckoned with? Just check this article out.)
If you, like me, at least in part have your season ticket because of who we play, then man, was this the game for you!
Donovan McNabb! Brian Westbrook! Terrell Owens! Freddie "4th and 26" Mitchell! Brian Dawkins! Jevon "The Freak" Kearse! And my personal favorite, Lito "Oh Oh Oh Oh Oh Oh!" Shepherd!
And for the Red and Gold, Trent Green! Priest Holmes! Larry Johnson! Dante Hall! Tony Gonzalez! Jared Allen! Derrick Johnson (in his rookie year)!
And the geek in me really, really dug the coaching matchup: Richard A. Vermeil ... against "Fat" Andy Reid.
--------------------
After one of the last great tailgates at the crosswalk in Lot N, the actual game got underway ... and for twenty minutes, it did not disappoint anyone there rooting for the Chiefs.
The Chiefs received the kickoff, and in barely five minutes, Priest punched it into the end zone to start the scoring. (And note: there would be a LOT of scoring on this day. More than most of you reading this are getting right now thanks to this lockdown, that much scoring.) After forcing an Eagles punt, the Chiefs drive again, and nail a field goal to go up 10-0. The Eagles then fumble the kickoff; the Chiefs recover, and a Larry Johnson touchdown to open the second quarter puts the Chiefs up 17-0 with nearly three full quarters to play.
(Sound familiar, Texans fans? Chiefs fans?)
Then temporarily, the game settled down, for a solid four, five minutes, as both teams exchanged punts.
After the Chiefs punt, the Eagles manage to finally put a sustained drive together, enough to try a field goal ... which is promptly blocked by Eric Hicks!
So here the Chiefs stand, at about their own 30, up 17, a little over seven minutes to play in the half, ready to plunge the final dagger into the Eagles corpse.
Only ...
--------------------
That drive ended with a TrINT Green, uuh, TaINT, as the Eagles returned a forty yard pick to the house. (And somehow, they shanked the extra point.) Now it's 17-6 Chiefs ... for about ten seconds, because Dante Hall takes the kick return to the house to extend the lead from 17 to 18, at 24-6. In literally fifteen seconds, the Chiefs somehow turn the most deflating play in football (a defensive touchdown) into the most exciting play in football (a kickoff / punt return touchdown), and emerge a point ahead of where they were as a result! Surely, at 24-6, with barely four minutes until halftime, surely this game has to be solidly in the hand at this point, right? Who the hell rallies from down eighteen points with half the game gone inside of the nuthouse that is Arrowhead Stadium -- a nuthouse so, uuh, nutty, most of my friends and family (and the friends that are family) refer to it as it should be named -- Terrorhead Stadium? Who the hell coaches a team back from down four scores right before the half, inside of Terrorhead?
I can think of one dude, who knows how to do that ...
--------------------
Because just like he did so many times in the 2019 postseason ... ok, every time in the 2019 postseason, "Fat" Andy Reid didn't panic. Didn't let his frustrations get the better of him.
Which probably is why I love the dude so much. Coaching the 2005 Eagles had to be the most miserable job experience of Coach Reid's career. Terrell Owens imploded the season after this game, as the Eagles fell from 3-1 exiting Arrowhead, to 6-10 when the season was done. But hey, anytime you can do shirtless push-ups on your driveway to make a point, I guess you have to do it, right Terrell?
And yet, in this one game, in this one moment, "Fat" Andy showed why he's so brilliant.
Because not even twenty minutes of game action later, the Eagles had rallied from down 18, to tie the game at 24. And they weren't done scoring. Because the Eagles scored 31 straight -- thirty one straight! -- points, to beat the Chiefs 37-31 that afternoon. (The Chiefs scored a garbage time TD to make the score respectable.)
And as if scoring 31 straight at Arrowhead as an opponent -- while trailing by 18 -- wasn't impressive enough? If anything, "Fat" Andy showed that day just what a lead consumer he is. From the moment that Dante Hall returned the kickoff to put the Chiefs up 24-6, until the Eagles scored to go up 37-24 barely thirty minutes later, the Eagles ran 49 plays over eight drives. (Three drives of which began via Chiefs turnovers. Oy vey.)
Of the 49 plays the Eagles ran (50 if you count the two point conversion, which I don't), only 10 of them were runs, for a grand total of 21 yards. 39 of them were passes, for 297 yards, 3 touchdowns, 6 scoring drives, and a comeback by the enemy the likes of which Arrowhead had rarely if ever witnessed before.
To say the 77,000 plus of me and my closest friends left that stadium in stunned disbelief, is an insult to stunned disbelief.
"Fat" Andy literally did anything he wanted to in that second half. Donovan McNabb threw three touchdowns -- all in goal to go situations. It's not like the Chiefs secondary was abysmal -- it started Dexter McCleon, Greg Wesley, Patrick Surtain, "Brave" Bennie Sapp, and Sammy Knight. You can win with that secondary. The Chiefs did -- ten times in sixteen tries in 2005.
But this failure? A failure that ultimately cost the 2005 Chiefs the postseason **** ?
I'm hard pressed to pin this epic disaster anymore on Richard A. Vermeil, on TrINT Green's god-awful performance (19-30, two costly interceptions (one of which was the margin of victory)), or on (as I noted fifteen years ago) a once-in-a-lifetime rally we'd never witness again.
"A once in a lifetime rally we'll never witness again."
As usual, I was wr ... wr ... wr ... possibly incorrect.
And I've never been happier, to be so.
Even if it took me fifteen years, to understand why.
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(****: either this debacle, or the collapse in Dallas two months later, cost the 2005 Chiefs a playoff berth. In both games, the Chiefs led by at least ten points, and choked. Having been at both games, I think Philly was the worse loss ... but it's not like the Cowboys defeat is exactly defensible.)
--------------------
Because fifteen years later, on the same field, in virtually the same position, "Fat" Andy orchestrated another rally you might witness once in a lifetime, if you're lucky -- coming back from down 24 to the Texans to take the lead -- this time in half the time it took "Fat" Andy and his Eagles to rally fifteen years ago. In barely ten minutes, the Chiefs went from being on the receiving end of one of the greatest upsets in NFL playoff history, to being on the giving end of one of the greatest comebacks in NFL history, period.
We Chiefs fans should have seen "The Comeback" against the Texans coming. I should have seen it coming. And maybe I would have, if I'd gone eight years of research back, instead of seven.
The lesson? Sh*t if I know, other than I'm damned glad "Fat" Andy Reid is my team's head coach ...
Call and tell 'em you won't be in today.
Baby, there ain't nothing at the office?
So important it can't wait!
I'm thankful for the weekend,
But two days in heaven just ain't gonna do.
This is gonna take forever, darlin --
Girl, I just got started loving you!"
-- "Just Got Started Loving You" by James Otto.
--------------------
The one thing that stood out over this season -- especially this postseason -- above all, was the Chiefs remarkable ability to rally from remarkable deficits.
In all three playoff games, over the span of those four magical weekends none of us would trade for damned near anything, the opposition scored first. In all three playoff games, over those four epic weekends, the Chiefs trailed by double digits at some points. And in all three playoff games, over those four nearly indescribable weekends, the Chiefs won by double digits.
A smart person would argue that you don't accomplish comebacks like we witnessed in a vacuum. Hell, even dumb f*ck morons like me would argue that. And for once, the smart and sane, as well as the intellectually questionable and clinically mentally challenged like me, agree!
Because one thing that hit me while working on the next two posts after this ... is that, in the words of Stevo's Site Numero Dos' Official Color Commentator (Emeritus), the legendary Dan Dierdorf: "we have seen it before".
Sh*t, we saw it inside Arrowhead, fourteen years ago.
Against "Fat" Andy Reid to boot.
--------------------
A few months ago, I noted what a difference a coach can make. I pointed out just how dramatically (and unbelievably quickly) "Fat" Andy turned the Chiefs from the doormat of the division, the outhouse of the conference, and the "whatever the hell passes as sanitation" in "Survivor" * of the league.
What truly is dramatic and unbelievable, is that I of all people didn't see it coming. Yes, I am the one who loves to point out (via a no-doubt stolen quote) that "there are lies, damned lies, and statistics" ... and yet, my professional life involves nothing but those lies, damned lies, and statistics. I work as a reinsurance accountant for a fairly decently known local KC insurance company. Prior to that, I did the same job for two universally known insurance companies for pushing twenty years.
(Think "instantly recognizable building in the heart of San Francisco", and "largest city of the most neutral company on Planet Earth", for those corporations, both of whom paid me thousands of dollars to (old school doormat voice) go away ** . In the words of Sammy Sosa: "God bless America, it's a beautiful country!")
I am paid to not only report the actuals of life ... but to project and manage the risks in life. I am paid to literally study the past, and track the present, to predict the future.
(Somehow, "company I work for" is afloat. Circle me stunned, Bert. Circle me stunned *** .)
And yet somehow, despite the research on that linked post above that opened this section of these poorly prepared thoughts (which involved a few hours playing around on one of my favorite sites, pro-football-reference.com), despite the statement of the present, and analysis of the past, I failed to do one thing to truly predict the future to come.
I stopped at seven years prior, to "Fat" Andy's arrival.
Because in the accounting world, seven years makes sense. It's what the IRS "politely" asks you to hold onto records for. It's the time span most financial audits cover, if things are ugly. And certainly, in professional sports, if not in life, if you haven't made verifiable progress in seven years? If you haven't cleaned up the f*ck ups and failures of your franchise seven years later? You're probably living the lyrics to the "Good Times" theme song.
My mistake was not going back seven years to research that post.
My mistake was not going back eight.
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(*: I hate that it's a season of all past winners ... but my God, is this year's "Survivor" phenomenal. Also, I so would have pulled a Sandra too, arriving at Eviction Island. (The worst twist in this show ever, but whatever. Double also, Adam is still me, if I ever played this game. Thinks he's smarter than the average bear, gets outplayed and outthought at every step, yet somehow charms enough people into keeping him around, because he's that damned likable, all while people scream "for Christ's sake, put a shirt on already!" Although he doesn't have the shaky right hand on Day Seventeen from severe alcohol withdrawal, that I would. Because as tempting as trading a fire token for Bud Light would be ... (stevo voice) it's Bud Light! I'd rather shock myself into sobriety.)
(**: I had to emergency dogsit for my brother for a night right before KC went on lockdown due to this sh*ttacular virus. My brother lives about a mile from where I used to fifteen years ago. I drove by the old house on the way home, just to see what it looks like nowadays ... and had to laugh. Because while it looks different (yet recognizable) on the outside? There, on a Saturday morning, was a large black dog lying on the front porch. I'm guessing the Jehovah's Witnesses still come around about 10am every Saturday? Because God love his lazy ass, there were only three things in life that ever motivated the late, great Priest to bark, let alone stand up. His addiction to Meaty Bones, his fear of a vacuum cleaner ... and the traveling pair of Jehovah's Witnesses every Saturday. (Pause). Damn right we left him on the front porch every weekend for a reason.)
(***: this is an abject lie. I may suck at 80% of what I do, and God knows my personal life has been a Thomas the Train level wreck of epic proportions at times ... but I can literally write my ticket to any reinsurer who wants me, I'm that fairly well known in this industry. As my buddy Pickell would note: "put it this way": I haven't submitted an application for a job since the late 1990s ... and yet, haven't been unemployed for a day I pretty much didn't choose to be, since November 1999. The lesson? Hell if I know. I'm just good at my job, I guess.)
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Week Four 2005 was, in hindsight, one of the great, epic Chiefs regular season games I've ever been privileged to attend.
For starters, you couldn't have asked for a better day to tailgate. The Pro-Football-Reference boxscore notes it was 87 and sunny at kickoff. In early October. In Kansas City. I mean, how do you top that? (Other than by going up maybe another six to eight degrees?)
Plus it was a 3:15pm CT start. Meaning we got to enjoy the entire glorious day outdoors. And the eyes of the nation were on our lovely lil' stadium, via the national FOX broadcast.
Again, what more can you ask for to open October?
Also, the game itself appeared to be epic -- your defending NFC Champion Philadelphia Eagles, visiting our beloved Red and Gold. (And in case you think the 2005 Chiefs, just because they missed the playoffs, were not a force to be reckoned with? Just check this article out.)
If you, like me, at least in part have your season ticket because of who we play, then man, was this the game for you!
Donovan McNabb! Brian Westbrook! Terrell Owens! Freddie "4th and 26" Mitchell! Brian Dawkins! Jevon "The Freak" Kearse! And my personal favorite, Lito "Oh Oh Oh Oh Oh Oh!" Shepherd!
And for the Red and Gold, Trent Green! Priest Holmes! Larry Johnson! Dante Hall! Tony Gonzalez! Jared Allen! Derrick Johnson (in his rookie year)!
And the geek in me really, really dug the coaching matchup: Richard A. Vermeil ... against "Fat" Andy Reid.
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After one of the last great tailgates at the crosswalk in Lot N, the actual game got underway ... and for twenty minutes, it did not disappoint anyone there rooting for the Chiefs.
The Chiefs received the kickoff, and in barely five minutes, Priest punched it into the end zone to start the scoring. (And note: there would be a LOT of scoring on this day. More than most of you reading this are getting right now thanks to this lockdown, that much scoring.) After forcing an Eagles punt, the Chiefs drive again, and nail a field goal to go up 10-0. The Eagles then fumble the kickoff; the Chiefs recover, and a Larry Johnson touchdown to open the second quarter puts the Chiefs up 17-0 with nearly three full quarters to play.
(Sound familiar, Texans fans? Chiefs fans?)
Then temporarily, the game settled down, for a solid four, five minutes, as both teams exchanged punts.
After the Chiefs punt, the Eagles manage to finally put a sustained drive together, enough to try a field goal ... which is promptly blocked by Eric Hicks!
So here the Chiefs stand, at about their own 30, up 17, a little over seven minutes to play in the half, ready to plunge the final dagger into the Eagles corpse.
Only ...
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That drive ended with a TrINT Green, uuh, TaINT, as the Eagles returned a forty yard pick to the house. (And somehow, they shanked the extra point.) Now it's 17-6 Chiefs ... for about ten seconds, because Dante Hall takes the kick return to the house to extend the lead from 17 to 18, at 24-6. In literally fifteen seconds, the Chiefs somehow turn the most deflating play in football (a defensive touchdown) into the most exciting play in football (a kickoff / punt return touchdown), and emerge a point ahead of where they were as a result! Surely, at 24-6, with barely four minutes until halftime, surely this game has to be solidly in the hand at this point, right? Who the hell rallies from down eighteen points with half the game gone inside of the nuthouse that is Arrowhead Stadium -- a nuthouse so, uuh, nutty, most of my friends and family (and the friends that are family) refer to it as it should be named -- Terrorhead Stadium? Who the hell coaches a team back from down four scores right before the half, inside of Terrorhead?
I can think of one dude, who knows how to do that ...
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Because just like he did so many times in the 2019 postseason ... ok, every time in the 2019 postseason, "Fat" Andy Reid didn't panic. Didn't let his frustrations get the better of him.
Which probably is why I love the dude so much. Coaching the 2005 Eagles had to be the most miserable job experience of Coach Reid's career. Terrell Owens imploded the season after this game, as the Eagles fell from 3-1 exiting Arrowhead, to 6-10 when the season was done. But hey, anytime you can do shirtless push-ups on your driveway to make a point, I guess you have to do it, right Terrell?
And yet, in this one game, in this one moment, "Fat" Andy showed why he's so brilliant.
Because not even twenty minutes of game action later, the Eagles had rallied from down 18, to tie the game at 24. And they weren't done scoring. Because the Eagles scored 31 straight -- thirty one straight! -- points, to beat the Chiefs 37-31 that afternoon. (The Chiefs scored a garbage time TD to make the score respectable.)
And as if scoring 31 straight at Arrowhead as an opponent -- while trailing by 18 -- wasn't impressive enough? If anything, "Fat" Andy showed that day just what a lead consumer he is. From the moment that Dante Hall returned the kickoff to put the Chiefs up 24-6, until the Eagles scored to go up 37-24 barely thirty minutes later, the Eagles ran 49 plays over eight drives. (Three drives of which began via Chiefs turnovers. Oy vey.)
Of the 49 plays the Eagles ran (50 if you count the two point conversion, which I don't), only 10 of them were runs, for a grand total of 21 yards. 39 of them were passes, for 297 yards, 3 touchdowns, 6 scoring drives, and a comeback by the enemy the likes of which Arrowhead had rarely if ever witnessed before.
To say the 77,000 plus of me and my closest friends left that stadium in stunned disbelief, is an insult to stunned disbelief.
"Fat" Andy literally did anything he wanted to in that second half. Donovan McNabb threw three touchdowns -- all in goal to go situations. It's not like the Chiefs secondary was abysmal -- it started Dexter McCleon, Greg Wesley, Patrick Surtain, "Brave" Bennie Sapp, and Sammy Knight. You can win with that secondary. The Chiefs did -- ten times in sixteen tries in 2005.
But this failure? A failure that ultimately cost the 2005 Chiefs the postseason **** ?
I'm hard pressed to pin this epic disaster anymore on Richard A. Vermeil, on TrINT Green's god-awful performance (19-30, two costly interceptions (one of which was the margin of victory)), or on (as I noted fifteen years ago) a once-in-a-lifetime rally we'd never witness again.
"A once in a lifetime rally we'll never witness again."
As usual, I was wr ... wr ... wr ... possibly incorrect.
And I've never been happier, to be so.
Even if it took me fifteen years, to understand why.
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(****: either this debacle, or the collapse in Dallas two months later, cost the 2005 Chiefs a playoff berth. In both games, the Chiefs led by at least ten points, and choked. Having been at both games, I think Philly was the worse loss ... but it's not like the Cowboys defeat is exactly defensible.)
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Because fifteen years later, on the same field, in virtually the same position, "Fat" Andy orchestrated another rally you might witness once in a lifetime, if you're lucky -- coming back from down 24 to the Texans to take the lead -- this time in half the time it took "Fat" Andy and his Eagles to rally fifteen years ago. In barely ten minutes, the Chiefs went from being on the receiving end of one of the greatest upsets in NFL playoff history, to being on the giving end of one of the greatest comebacks in NFL history, period.
We Chiefs fans should have seen "The Comeback" against the Texans coming. I should have seen it coming. And maybe I would have, if I'd gone eight years of research back, instead of seven.
The lesson? Sh*t if I know, other than I'm damned glad "Fat" Andy Reid is my team's head coach ...
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