Tuesday, September 29, 2020

stevo's mlb playoff picks

Twenty five years ago, I had to be drug kicking and screaming into the Wild Card era for baseball.  

As a kid, I loved what separated Major League Baseball from every other sport: no room for second place.  Either you won your division, or you sat at home in October and watched the playoffs from your couch, like us fans did.

But somewhere along the way, my resistance to the Wild Card completely evaporated.  Which is probably a good thing, because this year, not only do every second place squad get in, four third place teams are in as well.  We've got a sixteen game playoff tournament, just like the NBA and NHL (and give the NFL another year or two -- now that they've moved from twelve to fourteen playoff teams, it's only a matter of when they'll expand to sixteen playoff teams as well).

The playoffs start today.  Here then are my picks:


In the Wild Card Round, I can see six of the eight series going either way.  I think Tampa is a near lock to advance, and I see no way the Brew Crew can upset the Dodgers.  (That one actually would be a bigger upset than UMBC over Virginia three years ago in the NCAA Tournament.)  

I picked the Yankees over the Indians because I think they're the better overall team, and opening with Gerret Cole won't suck for Yankees fans.  (Especially in a best of three -- grab the quick 1-0 lead and then you can pick and play with how you try to close it out on the mound.)  I'm not as sold on the Twins as most -- I've long argued there is no worse opponent to face in any sport than a proven, veteran team with its' back to the wall, which is the (astro the dog voice) Rastros predicament -- but the Rastros couldn't even manage to go .500.  Not a good sign.  And I love the White Sox against the A's -- honestly, this is the second most anticipated Wild Card series for me.  Two great young teams loaded with talent going at it.  And you don't have to stay up to midnight to enjoy this one -- both Game One and Game Two are scheduled for an afternoon first pitch!

In the senior circuit, I like the Marlins to upset the Cubs (another team that, like the Rastros, is on its' last gasp), and I really love this Reds team.  Cincy / Atlanta is gonna be one hell of a three game series that I like the Reds to pull out.  But the NL series I am most anticipating is the Cardinals and Padres.  You can credibly argue the Padres are the second best team in the sport (note: they aren't ... but they're close), but has any team faced more adversity to get to the postseason than our "good friends" three hours east of Kansas City?  I'm taking the Padres but man, I can see the Cardinals eeking this one out in three.

In the Divisional Round (which are all best of five), I like the Yankees to outlast the Rays.  I know the Rays went 8-2 against the Yankees this year, but two of those wins were extra inning walk offs, and two other games were decided by one run.  A break here, a break there, and things are intriguingly different, which I think is what will happen here.  Yankees in four.  I also like the White Sox in five over the Twins, although I'm not sure it's really the upset a 7 over 3 represents.

In the National League, Dodgers / Padres might be one of those "whoever wins this is winning it all" matchups you see a lot in other leagues, but rarely in baseball.  This one is going the distance, and in the end, I think the Dodgers pitching is too much.  Dodgers in five.  I also think the Reds pitching is way too much for the Marlins to combat.  Reds in three.

In the Championship Series, Yankees / White Sox would be really fun.  I mean, really fun.  My good buddy Sir Thomas will be sweating bullets in this one.  But in the end, I'll take the Yankees in six.  They're the best team in the American League.  That fact will show through by the time late October arrives.  And in the National League, Reds / Dodgers would be a fascinating matchup.  The Reds are far better than their record indicates; the Dodgers consistently post the best record in the sport, but haven't won a World Series since Tommy Lasorda was pimping Weight Watchers and Kirk Gibson was limping around the bases.  I really wanted to pick the Reds here ... but I can't.  Dodgers in seven.

Giving us a World Series matchup that should have any fan of the sport drooling with anticipation.  Dodgers / Yankees.  East Coast / West Coast.  Kershaw v Cole at least twice, and possibly three times.  Two epic franchises, two rock solid teams, giving us hopefully a matchup worthy of the hype.  I'll take the Yankees in seven, meaning I'm taking the Yankees to win it all.

Enjoy the games everyone!

Thursday, September 24, 2020

three quartered ass week three predictions

The Statisticals.

* Last Week SU: 14-2-0.
* Season to Date SU: 23-9-0.

* Last Week ATS: 6-10-0.
* Season to Date ATS: 15-18-1.

* Last Week Upset / Week: yikes.
* Season to Date Upset / Week SU: 0-2-0.
* Season to Date Upset / Week ATS: 0-2-0.
* This Week Upset / Week: Bears (+3 1/2) over "Shane" Falcons.

The Non-Chiefs Predictions.

Let's rank the games this week, from 15 (most unwatchable) to 1 (most watchable).  (Note: in case the section head didn't clue you in, the Chiefs get their own pick section, hence only 15 games to rank.)  

And to accomplish this ... yeah, we gotta.  It's been a while.  Those of you familiar with these picks, know how these rankings are going to work.  Might as well try to give you the $0.00 in content you come here to read once a week, at least once this month.

Because, after all ...

* "Good Times Game O' The Week": at Colts (-10 1/2) 41, Jets 13.  Ain't we lucky we got 'em?  (Na na na na na!)  Good Times!!!!!!!!!

For those unfamiliar with the Sh*-Sit-Com Ranking System from years past, the worst games on the board would be designated the (insert god awful 70s /80s sh*t-sit-com here) Game O' The Week, because any person with an IQ above room temperature would rather watch three straight hours of this "classic" sitcom, than watch even one second of this NFL offering.

(The joke, of course, being that I actually like most of these sitcoms, especially "Good Times" at the beginning, and especially "Benson" at the ending.  But whatever.  They're all sh*t-sit-com-tacular!)

Get ready America -- the Jets are in prime time next week.  At (likely) 0-3.  Against another (likely) 0-3 team.  On a short week to boot.  Jesus.  What did I ever do to deserve this?

* "ALF Game O' The Week": 49ers (-5) 27, at Giants 3.  It is truly sad how far this once epic rivalry has fallen.

* "Empty Nest Game O' The Week": at Browns (-7) 31, Redskins 20.  Not even friends, family, and paid to attend media want a part of this action.

* "Webster Game O' The Week": at Jaguars (-3) 27, Dolphins 20.  This actually is one of the toughest games on the board to prognosticate.  Seriously.  These are two fairly evenly matched teams.  If (when?) Miami loses this one, they have to start thinking it's Tua Time.  And no, I didn't say Tuna (rimshot!).

* "Too Close For Comfort Game O' The Week": at "Super" Chargers 20, Panthers (+7 1/2) 14.  Speaking of too close for comfort, Tyrod Taylor and a physician's needle everyone (rimshot!).  (Pause).  What, too soon?

In all seriousness, this site wishes Mr. Taylor all the best.  Because we saw Justin Herbert last Sunday.  And he ain't Herbert the Pervert from "Family Guy", that's for sure.  Get back on the field soon, Tyrod!  We miss you taking your team out of contention before kickoff!

* "Mama's Family Game O' The Week": Bears (+3 1/2) 24, at "Shane" Falcons 14.  We're about two more losses from the lights going out in Dan Quinn's employment status, let alone the state of Georgia.

* "Blossom Game O' The Week": at "Super" Cardinals (-6) 35, Lions 20.  The Arizona "Super" Cardinals are about to go to 3-0, with the Panthers (at home) and Jets (on the road) up next.  We are living in a world where it is highly probable the Arizona "Super" Cardinals will be 5-0 going to Dallas in a month for their Monday Nighter against the Cowboys.

There's only one word to accurately describe that.

"Whoa!"

* "The Facts of Life Game O' The Week": at Eagles (-6 1/2) 31, Bengals 20.  You take the good!  You take the bad!  You take them both?  And then you have?

This sh*tshow.  Be it the sitcom, or the game this Sunday. 

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Note: we are now at the midpoint; every game left (seven in this section, plus the Chiefs / Ravens) I would give up three plus hours to watch every minute of.  Every game before this?  I'd opt for three plus hours of the sitcom designation.  Still, in fairness -- giving us 50% quality on-field play (or at least off-field hype) in Week Three is not bad.  Especially given every uncertainty that went into this season simply getting underway.

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* "Gimme A Break Game O' The Week": Rams (+2 1/2) 24, at Bills 21.  If there were 70,000 Bills Mafia in the stands, I'd probably wager differently.  But at an empty Ralph, in late September (pre-awful weather), I'll take the SoCal kids to not crack the stadium floor.  I mean, if Nell Carter managed to avoid doing that for six years, surely the Rams can for six hours, right?  

* "Night Court Game O' The Week": Texans (+3 1/2) 26, at Steelers 17.  The fact this line is less than four means way too many gamblers agree with me, that Houston is really underrated (or the Steelers are really overrated, or both) coming into this one.  The Texans are not 0-2 bad -- facing the Chiefs and Ravens tends to do that to you.  The Steelers are not 2-0 good -- facing the Giants and those people tends to do that to you.  If there's a God, somehow Markie Post either sings the Anthem or tosses the coin.  Ms. Post has to be involved in this contest somehow.  Because we all need some Markie Post in our lives.

* "Designing Women Game O' The Week": Titans (-2 1/2) 28, at Vikings 17.  What?  Derrick Henry has a lil' Julia "I Don't Take Sh*t From Nobody" Sugarbaker in him!  

* "Diff'rent Strokes Game O' The Week": at those people (+6) 20, Buccaneers 19.  There is not one sane, sensible reason for this pick.  

Other than this:


And this:


And this:


Provided mentally challenged those people head coach vic fangio doesn't f*ck up his timeouts again, I'll take the home team with its' back to the wall, against the road team starting a quarterback my age, a mile high above sea level.

Hey.  Diff'rent Strokes for Diff'rent Folks.

* "Small Wonder Game O' The Week": at Seahawks (-5) 41, Cowboys 13.  The Cowboys would be 0-2 if anyone other than Dan Quinn or vic fangio coached the "Shane" Falcons.  And quite frankly, I think even vic fangio is smart enough to coach his players to touch an onside kick when it's right in front of you.  The Seahawks pounded Dan Quinn's "Shane" Falcons, and survived the Patriots by showing the common sense to know a last-play attempt to tie at the two would put the ball in Cam Newton's hands.

This one smells like a game that spirals out of control early, and really spirals out of control late.

* "Amen Game O' The Week": at Saints 21, Packers (+3 1/2) 20.  Drew Brees is not washed up, nor is he showing its' age.  The raiders defense simply showed its' talent.

* "Benson Game O' The Week": at Patriots 31, raiders (+6 1/2) 28.  I believe I severely underrated the raiders this season.  (I have them going 8-8, albeit controlling their own destiny entering the finale at fake mile high.)  I also believe I underrated the Patriots this season.  (I have them going 9-7, winning the AFC East, then getting destroyed yet again in the Wild Card game.)  This, on paper, is going to be one wildly entertaining contest.  Thank you, KCTV-5, for carrying this one.

And yes, complimenting -- let alone thanking -- Channel 5 for anything related to Chiefs coverage, is something I never imagined I'd do again in my lifetime.

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The "Klassy" Kevin Kietzman Tweet O' The Week.

Admit it, life just isn't the same without my weekly (coach don fambrough voice) throwdown, hoedown, showdown, takedown of Senor No Los Pantalones.

In case you all missed it, Ol' Kietz has gotten back into broadcasting following his long overdue kick to the curb by Union Broadcasting last summer.  He has a podcast up called -- and no folks, this is not a joke -- a podcast up called "Kevin Kietzman Has Issues".

I mean, talk about setting up the (rimshot!)!  That would be the equivalent of me launching a podcast called "Stevo Is An Alcoholic".  I believe that would simply be called "stating the obvious".

Anyway, it's actually a pretty good podcast, considering the author, and I encourage you to give it a shot, especially the episode where Kaptain Klassy lays out his side of his, uuh, layoff.

And for this week, that's it.  Let's all be thankful "K"KK is back, and do our part to help him keep spewing out the inept, incompetent, "these make no sense whatsoever!" takes that defined Klueless Kev's thirty plus years on Kansas City's television and radio airwaves.

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The Tailgating AND Watching Party Plans.

So here's the thing.  For those of you who don't know me ... count your blessings!  Nah, I kid.  For those of you who don't know me, I am a twenty plus year Chiefs season ticket holder (with the lovely hat from last season to prove it!), and believe me when I say, there were few games I ever anticipated more in my life, than that opener against Houston a couple weeks ago.

I anticipated a fun day of tailgating on a lovely 90 degree early September afternoon, a solid fifteen minute cry / section area hug when the Championship Flag was raised, and a thoroughly enjoyable 41-14 beatdown of the overmatched Texans, witnessed from my beloved seat in Section 132, Row 26, Seat 14.

I got none of that.  For starters it was barely 50 and rained all day here in Kansas City on September 10th.  Secondly, the Texans were feisty enough to make the game "entertaining" for most of the evening.  And finally, the closest I came to my seat on September 10th was when I went straight through (pick one) the intersection of 63rd and Blue Ridge Cutoff, or the intersection of 63rd and Raytown Trafficway, on the way to my Second Parents house.

Because COVID 19, coupled with numerous other bullsh*t, has (stewie griffin voice) roo-eened the in-person experience for myself, most (if not all) of my tailgating group and other season ticket holding friends, and no doubt a lot of you, for this 2020 season.

I finished paying the Chiefs for my seat on June 15th.  I allowed the Chiefs to roll forward, per their "agreement" with us Season Ticket Members, all monies paid for my seat to the 2021 season, thus requiring me to re-buy a seat I've already paid for, at approximately 400% more than I already paid to sit there.

And to that I say ... I'm OK with it.  

Because while spending a Lazy Sunday floating poolside with friends, family, friends that are family, and a few random dudes and dudettes who showed up, we hit upon our plan for the 2020 NFL Season.

Screw paying the Chiefs, the NFL, and anyone else a 400% markup on seats we've already bought and paid for.

We'll HomeGate the entire season.

And rotate it, amongst our tailgate friends, family, friends that are family, and random one-offs who show up just for the f*ck of it.

Which is what we began, two weeks ago, against the Texans.  And to be fair, the "HomeGate" sucked, not because of any fault of ours, but because it was 50 and raining.  Who in their right mind wants to be outside playing Beer Pong or Washers or Cornhole in the rain?  (And spare me the "use the garage!" rebuttal.  You've never seen my Second Parents' Garage.  They can't even fit a car in there, it's so packed in.)  But the food was good, we made (dave matthews band voice) the best of what's around, and most importantly, got to spend time with our local tailgating folks while enjoying a Chiefs win.

Which is what we did again Sunday, up at Tom and Laurie's.  The menu for the opener was "Watson's Whataburgers", or as most of you would refer to them as, Sloppy Joe's.  The menu for Sunday was Charger Chicken; you don't f*ck with the "Core Three" tailgating menus.  (Those being Charger Chicken, raider ribs, and bronco burgers.)

This Monday, we'll be at Gus' for the HomeGate.  The menu as of now is pulled pork and sides, plus whatever liquid refreshment you desire.  Weather permitting, we'll be outside.  As always, anyone and everyone is welcome to join in; just DM me if you need directions.

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The Chiefs Prognostication.

Well this sucks.

For the record, I should be typing this either on a plane headed to Baltimore, or from a hotel room somewhere along the Baltimore waterfront.  This was one of three Chiefs road games I had planned to attend in person this season -- with a fourth trip to our "good friends" who allegedly play a mile high above sea level always on the table.

(The other two would have been a nice half month vacation in December -- fly to South Florida for the Dolphins game, spend a week headed along the Gulf coast, slowly yet steadily, until arriving in New Orleans for the Saints game, before heading home via Dallas for a few days to get home for Christmas.  Damn you, COVID 19!  God d*mn you to the eighth layer of hell!  (Or, as that layer is known on this site: fake mile high stadium.))

Yeah, this sucks.  I mean, (brantley gilbert voice) back in the day, when Mr. Reason / Jasson / bts and I (or some combination of us) went on road trips, the big deal was the pregame meal the night before the game.  We were all in our 20s, all but Jasson amongst us had no family or kid commitments, and we tried to do it up right.  Always picked a classy, high dollar restaurant ... and of course, showed up trashy in Chiefs jersey, zubaz pants or shady blue jeans (or in my case, khakis that had seen better days -- I don't wear jeans), that on most Saturday or Sunday nights would have gotten us kicked out of the joint ... only there were so many other Chiefs fans there with the same idea, the restaurant had to let us in.

To this day, it's a tradition I try to maintain.  Any road trip to Houston means Willie G's the night before the game.  Any roadie to Dallas requires some Uncle Julio's.  (Which may not be the classiest Mexican joint in the Metroplex ... but it's the best.)  There's an awesome fish market called Mitchell's just across from the stadium in Cincinnati.  St. Elmo's in Indy.  Giordano's in Chicago.

I was so looking forward to some same day oysters on the shell, with some fresh crab cakes, or a clam bake, coupled with a couple bottles of insanely overpriced Pinot Grigio on Sunday night.  I was looking forward to spending Saturday in our nation's Capital, a place I haven't been to since pre-9/11.  I was looking forward to seeing the Inner Harbor, possibly catching a game at Camden Yards (I believe the Orioles were supposed to close their 2020 season at home under the initial 2020 MLB schedule), see the home of Edgar Allan Poe (not to be confused with David Allan Coe).  So many plans to cram into so little time, and none of it going to happen.

All due to a virus noone on planet Earth had heard of one year ago today, let alone nine months ago today.

As John Lennon once famously wrote and sang: "life is what happens to you, when you're busy making other plans".

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So ... having gotten that rant out of the way, let me note why there was no "The Flashback" this week.

Because the obvious flashback is Week Four, 2004.  And that frankly, is a period of time I have no desire to relive.

That Monday Nighter was the last game of my Chiefs fandom as I knew it.  And even now, sixteen years later, it's amazing to realize not just all that was lost the next day, but all from that actual GameDay Night experience itself, that is probably gone forever as well.

There is nothing positive to be drawn out from "The Flashback" this week, so I pretty much chose to skip it.

If you know me?

You'll get it.

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But I do have to make a pick for this game.

For the record, this season I am 2-0 SU picking the Chiefs, and 0-2 ATS picking the Chiefs.  I thought the Texans would put up a better fight; I thought the Chargers would be beaten like the proverbial government mule Good Ol' JR was always talking when he broadcasted WWE's Monday Night Raw.

The line as I wrote it down Tuesday night was Ravens -3.  I don't expect it to move much, if at all, so I'm not going to relook it up again.  I'll stick with -3.  Which is about perfect.  (Although anyone who thinks the Ravens would cover three at a legitimate Arrowhead, is certifiably insane.)

The Chiefs have lost the last three roadies I've attended, and five of the last six, over the last three seasons.  (The only W being the Monday Nighter against those people in 2018 -- or as the figurine dangling from my rear view mirror forces you to remember, the "Left Handed Pass Game".)  Sh*t, I was in attendance the last time the Chiefs lost a game anywhere -- in Nashville last November.

Would the losing skid of me attending road games have ended Monday Night?  We'll never know.  But I know how I would have bet ... and it's why I'm betting this.

* "Perfect Strangers Game O' The Week": Chiefs (+3) 30, at Ravens 24.

Monday, September 21, 2020

half assed nfl season predictions

Alright, let's finally get these posted.

Most years, this is a drawn out, 8-10 post piece with some reason, rhyme, and rhythm to it.  This year, it isn't.  I'm just gonna post the schedule runs, then post my, uuh, postseason picks, and then we'll move on, because let's face it, these bad boys are three weeks overdue, and with the way life is working for me right now, if I wait any longer, these may never go up.

Also, as much proof as I can offer, that this schedule run was done before the season began, and has remained unchanged since:


Here we go.

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NFC East.


* Projected Champion: Philadelphia Eagles.

* Other Projected Playoff Teams: Dallas Cowboys.

* Preseason Teams Power Ranking Positions: 

3. Philadelphia Eagles.
9. Dallas Cowboys.
28. New York Giants.
32. Washington Redskins.

* Coaches Power Ranking Positions:

8. Doug Pederson, Eagles.
18. Mike McCarthy, Cowboys.
19. "Riverboat" Ron Rivera, Redskins.
31. Joe Judge "Judy", Giants.

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NFC Norris.


* Projected Champion: Green Bay Packers.

* Other Projected Playoff Teams: none.

* Preseason Teams Power Ranking Positions: 

10. Green Bay Packers.
17. Minnesota Vikings.
23. Chicago Bears.
26. Detroit Lions.

* Coaches Power Ranking Positions:

11. Matt LaFleur, Packers.
14. Mike Zimmer, Vikings.
16. Matt Nagy, Bears.
26. Matt Patricia, Lions.

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NFC South.


* Projected Champion: Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

* Other Projected Playoff Teams: none.

* Preseason Teams Power Ranking Positions:

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
14. New Orleans Saints.
20. Atlanta "Shane" Falcons.
29. Carolina Panthers.

* Coaches Power Ranking Positions:

10. Sean Payton, New Orleans Saints.
17. Bruce Arians, Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
22. Dan Quinn, Atlanta "Shane" Falcons.
30. Matt Rhule, Carolina Panthers.

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NFC West.


* Projected Champion: Seattle Seahawks.

* Other Projected Playoff Teams: San Francisco 49ers, Los Angeles Rams.

* Preseason Teams Power Ranking Positions:

6. San Francisco 49ers.
11. Los Angeles Rams.
12. Seattle Seahawks.
19. Arizona "Super" Cardinals.

* Coaches Power Ranking Positions:

5. Pete Carroll, Seattle Seahawks.
13. Sean McVay, Los Angeles Rams.
15. Kyle Shanahan, San Francisco 49ers.
23. Kliff Kingsbury, Arizona "Super" Cardinals.

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NFC Postseason.

Playoff Seeding:

* 1. 11-5 NFC East Champion Philadelphia Eagles (tiebreaker over Tampa Bay Buccaneers via Conference Record).

* 2. 11-5 NFC South Champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

* 3. 10-6 NFC West Champion Seattle Seahawks (tiebreaker over San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams via Conference Record).

* 4. 9-7 NFC Norris Champion Green Bay Packers (tiebreaker over Chicago Bears via Conference Record).

* 5. 10-6 San Francisco 49ers (tiebreaker over Los Angeles Rams via Strength of Victory).

* 6. 10-6 Los Angeles Rams.

* 7. 9-7 Dallas Cowboys (tiebreaker over New Orleans Saints via Record Amongst Common Opponents, tiebreaker over Chicago Bears via Conference Record).

Non Playoff Teams:

* 9-7 New Orleans Saints.
* 9-7 Chicago Bears.
* 8-8 Minnesota Vikings.
* 8-8 Detroit Lions.
* 8-8 Arizona "Super" Cardinals.
* 4-12 Washington Redskins.
* 4-12 Carolina Panthers.
* 4-12 Atlanta "Shane" Falcons.
* 3-13 New York Giants.

The Games:

* 6 Rams 31, at 3 Seahawks 14 (Sat 1/9, 3:30pm CT, FOX).
* 7 Cowboys 38, at 2 Buccaneers 31 (Sat 1/9, 7pm CT, ESPN / ABC).
* 5 49ers 30, at 4 Packers 20 (Sun 1/10, 7pm CT, NBC).

* 7 Cowboys 31, at 1 Eagles 21 (Sat 1/16, 7pm CT, FOX).
* 6 Rams 34, at 5 49ers 27 (Sun 1/17, 3:30pm CT, FOX).

* 7 Cowboys 21, at 6 Rams 34 (Sunday 1/24, 2pm CT, FOX).

NFC Champion: 6 Los Angeles Rams.

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AFC East.


* Projected Champion: New England Patriots.

* Other Projected Playoff Teams: none.

* Preseason Teams Power Ranking Positions:

8. New England Patriots.
15. Buffalo Bills.
22. New York Jets.
24. Miami Dolphins.

* Coaches Power Ranking Positions:

2. Bill Belichick, New England Patriots.
7. Sean McDermott, Buffalo Bills.
20. Brian Flores, Miami Dolphins.
29. Adam Gase, New York Jets.

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AFC Norris.


* Projected Champion: Pittsburgh Steelers.

* Other Projected Playoff Teams: Baltimore Ravens, Cleveland Browns.

* Preseason Teams Power Ranking Positions:

2. Baltimore Ravens.
7. Pittsburgh Steelers.
27. Cleveland Browns.
30. Cincinnati Bengals.

* Coaches Power Ranking Positions:

4. John Harbaugh, Baltimore Ravens.
6. Omar Epps Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh Steelers.
27. Zac Taylor, Cincinnati Bengals.
32. Kevin Stefanski, Cleveland Browns.

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AFC South.


* Projected Champion: Houston Texans.

* Other Projected Playoff Teams: Tennessee Titans.

* Preseason Teams Power Ranking Positions:

5. Tennessee Titans.
13. Houston Texans.
21. Indianapolis Colts.
31. Jacksonville Jaguars.

* Coaches Power Ranking Positions:

3. Bill O'Brien, Houston Texans.
9. Mike Vrabel, Tennessee Titans.
12. Frank Reich, Indianapolis Colts.
28. Doug Marrone, Jacksonville Jaguars.

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AFC West.


* Projected Champion: Kansas City Chiefs.

* Other Projected Playoff Teams: none.

* Preseason Teams Power Ranking Positions:

1. Kansas City Chiefs.
16. las vegas raiders.
18. those people.
25. Los Angeles "Super" Chargers.

* Coaches Power Ranking Positions:

1. "Fat" Andy Reid, Kansas City Chiefs.
21. jon gruden, las vegas raiders.
24. Anthony Lynn, Los Angeles "Super" Chargers.
25. vic fangio, those people.

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AFC Postseason.

Playoff Seeding:

* 1. 11-5 AFC West Champion Kansas City Chiefs.

* 2. 10-6 AFC Norris Champion Pittsburgh Steelers (tiebreaker over Baltimore Ravens via Record Amongst Common Opponents).

* 3. 9-7 AFC South Champion Houston Texans (tiebreaker over Tennessee Titans via Divisional Record, tiebreaker over New England Patriots via H2H Victory Week 11).

* 4. 9-7 AFC East Champion New England Patriots.

* 5. 10-6 Baltimore Ravens.

* 6. 9-7 Tennessee Titans (tiebreaker over Cleveland Browns and those people via 2-0 H2H record).

* 7. 9-7 Cleveland Browns (tiebreaker over those people via Conference Record).

Non Playoff Teams:

* 9-7 those people.
* 8-8 Buffalo Bills.
* 8-8 New York Jets.
* 8-8 Cincinnati Bengals.
* 8-8 Indianapolis Colts.
* 8-8 las vegas raiders.
* 7-9 Miami Dolphins.
* 4-12 Los Angeles "Super" Chargers.
* 2-14 Jacksonville Jaguars.

The Games:

* 6 Titans 20, at 3 Texans (Sat 1/9, noon CT, NBC).
* 7 Browns 6, at 2 Steelers 31 (Sun 1/10, noon CT, CBS).
* 5 Ravens 17, at 4 Patriots 20 (Sun 1/10, 3:30pm CT, ESPN / ABC).

* 3 Texans 24, at 2 Steelers 20 (Sat 1/16, 3:30pm CT, CBS).
* 4 Patriots 17, at 1 Chiefs 38 (Sun 1/17, noon CT, NBC).

* 3 Texans 24, at 1 Chiefs 41 (Sunday 1/24, 5:40pm CT, CBS).

AFC Champion: 1 Kansas City Chiefs.

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Super Bowl LV.

* 6 Los Angeles Rams 20, 1 Kansas City Chiefs 45.

Super Bowl Champion: Kansas City Chiefs.

Thursday, September 17, 2020

half assed week two picks

Here’s the thing, peoples and peepettes – I have some stuff going on in my professional existence right now, that I am choosing not to talk about, because (a) I’ve been down this road seven years ago, and it bombed out spectacularly for me, and (b) because of (a), I don’t want to raise my (or your?) hopes one way or another.  But let’s just say, I am currently working about 12 hours a day to get everything on my desk cleaned off, and everything in my inbox dealt with, in case a potential career opportunity comes to fruition in a few weeks or so.

Having noted that excuse up front … there are a few comments regarding the Chiefs I wish I’d said before Week One, and wish I had time to include for Week Two … so let’s hope Week Three makes those comments appear on this site, because they need to appear before the next home game, which is scheduled for Week Four.

Also, my 2020 NFL Season Picks will be up sometime this weekend.  I have not adjusted the Schedule Run for the Week One results, and I won’t adjust them for any Week Two results either, should it take until Sunday or Monday to get them posted.

Until then … here are your Half Assed Week Two Predictions – which sadly means they are sans “K”KK Tweet thoughts, “Disreputable Mexican Food TrucK” Updates, political commentary, “Flashbacks”, Tailgating Plans, Watching Party Plans … basically, all you get are picks.  

Apologies.

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The Statisticals.


Last Week SU: 9-7-0.

Season to Date SU: 9-7-0.

 

Last Week ATS: 9-6-1.

Season to Date ATS: 9-6-1.

 

Last Week Upset / Week: 0-1-0 SU; 0-1-0 ATS.

Season to Date Upset / Week: 0-1-0 SU; 0-1-0 ATS.

This Week Upset / Week: Texans (+7) over Ravens.

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The Week Two Picks.

* at Browns (-6) 24, Bengals 14.  I ask with all seriousness, what will draw better ratings: Game 6 of Islanders / Lightning, or this debacle?  I know which one should, and it ain’t the battle for Ohio.

* Rams (PK) 19, at Eagles 13.  Here are a few words I never thought I’d type: Sean McVay is a better coach than Doug Pederson.  McVay’s gameplan Sunday night was flawless.  Pederson’s gameplan Sunday afternoon was more flawed than a monthly budget I plan out for personal purposes.

* at Bucs 27, Panthers (+9) 20.  I’m not laying two scores on Tom Brady at this point.  That, and Carolina is gonna upset a few teams along the way.  They’re better than I expected them to be.

* at Steelers 24, those people (+7 ½) 21.  First of all, this line is insane.  It’s at least five points too high.  Secondly, you could pick five, six, seven different plays on Monday night, that had those people done something slightly different, the game is theirs.  (Not the least of which is the stupid, indefensible, beyond retarded shovel pass to jake butt at the goalline on 4th and goal in the 2nd quarter.)  But thirdly – how awesome is it those people are staring 0-2 in the face yet again?  0-2 is all but a death sentence for the postseason – fewer than 10% of all postseason participants in the last 30 years have started 0-2 or worse.  Wave those Terrible Towels people!

* at Cowboys (-4 ½) 38, “Shane” Falcons 13.  This is our noon game here in KC on FOX.  Should induce a two hour nap out of me by 12:30.

* 49ers 13, at Jets (+7) 10.  Who will get fired first – Jets HC Adam Gase … or Jets Owner Woody Johnson (our ambassador to Great Britain)?  My money’s on Gase … which doesn’t say much, to be honest.

* Bills (-5 ½) 27, at Dolphins 17.  Gotta love the overreaction to last week’s Bills victory.  Folks?  Beating the Jets by two scores is something most teams in this sport should be able to do, every time, regardless of location of the contest.  They’re that terrible.  Or excuse me – (chuck barkley voice) TURRIBLE!

* Vikings (+3) 17, at Colts 13.  A rare Week Two interconference game in which the loser is in deep, deep trouble, both in their division and in the wild card race.  Especially if the loser is the Vikings.

* at Packers (-6) 31, Lions 14.  Speaking of games likely to induce a two hour nap out of me …

* at Bears (-5 ½) 20, Giants 13.  Mitchell Trubisky opening 2-0 may be the most unbelievable 2-0 opening by a quarterback since Ryan Leaf did it in 1998.

* at Titans (-9) 24, Jaguars 10.  Read the game correctly folks.  The Jaguars are not that good.  The Colts are that bad.  And the Titans are that lucky.

* at “Super” Cardinals (-6 ½) 34, Redskins 21.  They’ll remain the Redskins on this site until they pick a new team name.  And even then, they may remain as the “Real Redskins”.  Or the “Fake (Insert New Team Name Here)”.  This site despises political correctness.

* at Texans (-7) 31, Ravens 14.  The Texans need this one desperately.  They’ll get it.

* at Seahawks (-4) 27, Patriots 20.  Really fun interconference matchup.  Wish we got it more often than every four years.

* at raiders (+5 ½) 31, Saints 28.  Might as well let the squatters open Arrowhead West with a victory.

* Chiefs (-9) 38, at “Super” Chargers 13.  One of the first rules you learn in Marketing 101 is “Keep It Simple, Stupid”.  That’s how I feel about wagering this game – keep it simple, stupid.  “Fat” Andy and Patrick Mahomes “Of The Chiefs” were given three extra days to prepare for a divisional rival they’ve defeated 11 of the last 12 times they’ve played – and the only “Super” Chargers victory was via a two point conversion as time expired two years ago.  The coaching matchup is a joke.  The quarterback matchup is the stuff nine point home underdogs are made of – Mr. Mahomes versus Tyrod Taylor, whose team sits at 1-0 only because Bengals gonna Bengal, and miss a 31 yard field goal as time expired last week.  Keep it simple, stupid.  Chiefs big.

Sunday, September 13, 2020

half assed week one picks

Sorry I didn't have time to do these right.  Work is crazy right now for me.  Hopefully my full season picks go up over the next few days, and Week Two Picks are back to the normal novel-sized effort they strive to be.

* my Thursday Night pick was at Chiefs (-9) 41, Texans 34.
* at Patriots 23, Dolphins (+6 1/2) 17.  
* at Ravens 24, Browns (+8 1/2) 17.  
* at Bills (-6 1/2) 27, Jets 17.  
* raiders (-3) 24, at Panthers 20.  
* Seahawks (-2) 31, at "Shane" Falcons 13.  
* Eagles (-6) 31, Redskins 21.  
* at Lions 23, Bears (+3) 21.  
* Colts 17, at Jaguars (+8) 10.  
* at Vikings (-2 1/2) 24, Packers 20.  
* at Bengals (+3) 31, "Super" Chargers 13.  
* at 49ers (-7) 28, "Super" Cardinals 20.  
* Bucs (+3 1/2) 34, at Saints 27.  Upset O' The Week.
* at Rams (+3) 27, Cowboys 23.  
* Steelers (-6) 41, at Giants 3.  
* Titans (-2 1/2) 26, at those people 14.

week twelve picks

The Statisticals. Last Week SU: 8-6-0. Season to Date SU: 98-62-1. Last Week ATS: 7-7-0. Season to Date ATS: 75-80-6. Last Week Upset / ...