my 2010 mlb predictions

Well, Opening Day is barely 24 hours away …

And I still have zero interest in this baseball season.

I’ll try to explain why when I get to the AL Central picks. But here for sh*ts and giggles, is my 2010 MLB Predictions.

NL East:
1. Philadelphia Phillies
2. Atlanta Braves
3. Florida Marlins
4. New York Mets
5. Washington Nationals

Reasoning / Analysis: the Phillies are the best team in the NL on paper, and possibly in the entire sport. Adding Halladay to an already loaded rotation was smart. Really smart. I expect Atlanta to hang within 5-6 most of the way, and be solidly in the mix for the wildcard slot. Marlins have a lot of young talent, but probably not enough to push into the 88-90 win range the wildcard will require. The Mets are a mess. The Nats are even worse.

NL West:
1. Colorado Rockies
2. Arizona Diamondbacks
3. San Francisco Giants
4. Los Angeles Dodgers
5. San Diego Padres

Reasoning / Analysis: I am fully aware that Joe Torre hasn’t missed the playoffs in fifteen years, going a perfect 14 for 14 in that stretch. I just think this is the year the Dodgers fall back, thanks to off the field garbage. This division has four pretty good teams that will finish within 10 games of each other. I’ll say Colorado wins the most, Arizona just behind them. The Giants smell like a .500 squad to me. The Padres might be the worst team in baseball.

NL Central:
1. St. Louis Cardinals
2. Milwaukee Brewers
3. Cincinnati Reds
4. Chicago Cubs
5. Houston Astros
6. Pittsburgh Pirates

Reasoning / Analysis: Should be a great duel between the Cards and Brewers for the division. The loser figures to battle with Atlanta to the wire for the wildcard. As much as I don’t want to, as long as Tony LaRussa calls the shots over there, they’re always going to be my pick. The Reds and Cubs should finish in the 82-85 win range, although the Cubs have the financial ability to improve at the trade deadline and possibly get into favored status as a wildcard. The Astros and Pirates, well, at least they’ll help pad everyone else’s record and make the Central look better than it is.

NL East Champ: Phillies
NL West Champ: Rockies
NL Central Champ: Cardinals
NL Wildcard: Brewers

NL Champs: Phillies over Cardinals in 6.

AL East:
1. New York Yankees
2. Tampa Bay Rays
3. Boston Red Sox
4. Baltimore Orioles
5. Toronto Blue Jays

Reasoning / Analysis: can’t bet against the Yankees until there’s a valid reason to. Rays and Boston both figure to win around 88-90 games as well. The Orioles are slowly starting to rebuild into something respectable. Good luck undoing the damage in Toronto.

AL West:
1. Los Angeles Angels
2. Texas Rangers
3. Seattle Mariners
4. Oakland A’s

Reasoning / Analysis: again, I can’t bet against the Angels until there’s a valid reason to. Still the class of the division. The Rangers and Mariners figure to be in it for a while, at least, but I don’t see either team overtaking the Angels in the end. The A’s are probably a year away from being a factor.

AL Central:
1. Minnesota Twins
2. Chicago White Sox
3. Kansas City Royals
4. Detroit Tigers
5. Cleveland Indians

Reasoning / Analysis: as with NY and LA, I’m not betting against the Twins until there’s a valid reason to. I know Joe Nathan is done for the year, but the Twins will do what they always do: find someone to step in and do an even better job. Its what well run, competently managed franchises do. The White Sox figure to make a race of this, but in the end I think the Twins win out. The Tigers and Indians both will finish below .500, well below in the Indians case. Which brings me to the Royals.

I think it’s a very fair assumption to say, that over the last decade, nobody who reads this site, or who knows me, has lived and died with this team more than me. I’m the one always pushing to go to a game, regardless of the opponent, regardless of how bad the Royals are. I’m the one maintaining optimism. I’m the one who actually attempted to rationalize the Betancourt trade last year for crying out loud. I love this team. And seeing it in the sad shape its in just kills me.

Having said that … last year was my breaking point. I can live with a team that I love being crappy. I sat through the Terry Allen era of football, after all. And God knows I have stuck with the team that plays across the parking lot the last three years. But here’s the difference – the Chiefs acknowledged that the franchise was broken. And spare me the “well, at least we were competitive most of the time” crap – when you do something one way for fifteen years, and don’t have a single playoff victory to show for it, your franchise is broken.

The Royals have been in a cycle of losing for fifteen years. One winning season in that span. Yet after last season, when any reasonable, objective person could conclude that, at a bare minimum, (1) our manager is not major league material, (2) our training staff is the joke of the nation, and (3) the roster our GM put together is crappy at best, what happened?

(crickets chirping …)

The Royals did nothing. They didn’t clean house. They did make a few moves … none of which made the 2010 version BETTER on paper than the 2009 version! It defies logic, to continually make dumb roster decision after ass-backwards trade decision, and yet the Royals manage to do it.

They refuse to embrace the sabermetric revolution that dominates the game of baseball. Our GM is on the record as saying he doesn’t understand the statistical evidence available to him, and doesn’t care to. Uuh, Dayton? Like it or not, this is how the game is played now. If you’re going to stick with a “scouting only, stats be damned” philosophy, at least put someone around you who does believe in the stats. If only at a bare minimum to avoid being ripped off by the savvier, more evolved GM’s in the game.

Rany on his site has pointed this out many times, but the Royals had three of the leading stats guys in their own backyard for most of the last twenty years. Bill James, Rob Neyer, and Joe Posnanski. All three tremendous writers who saw the evolution of the sport coming twenty years ago. What did the Royals do with this talent? Saw it farm out to a newspaper, to espn.com, … and of course, to the Boston Red Sox, who took Bill James’ statistical evaluations and promptly won 2 World Series in 5 years with his analysis.

But even if you say “well Steve, stats are overrated, its players that matter” … the Royals don’t have the players to get away with ignoring the stats! Because our GM has failed at his most basic job: acquire major league talent.

He pissed away $40 million on Jose Guillen. He pissed away $10 million on Kyle Farnsworth. He traded for Yuniesky Betancourt, a move so mind-bogglingly bad that NOBODY defended it, other than Dayton Moore on the radio a couple days after the trade because the fan and media backlash was that awful.

He signed not one, but two over-the-hill outfielders this winter in Rick Ankiel and Scott Podsednik. Both figure to start. That’s all you need to know about the talent Dayton Moore has acquired – other team’s trash is 2/3 of our starting outfield. (And as much as I like David DeJesus, if he’s your best player in the outfield, you are screwed).

Moore’s first draft was in 2006. Has anyone from that draft made an impact yet? Its year four. Where is the talent that should be ready to arrive in the majors by this summer at the latest? Where is it?

What sense does it make to continually block that talent with the likes of Rick Ankiel, Yuniesky Betancourt, Scott Podsednik, and Jose Guillen? What sense does that make?

You would think someone who came up learning the “Braves Way” would understand the most basic rule in sports – you always cut someone a year early rather than a year late. In the NFL, nobody does this better than the Patriots. Go figure, they’re the team of the decade. In MLB, nobody grasped this better than the Braves, who made the playoffs 14 straight years before the inevitable rebuild had to begin. (And even then, the Braves still haven’t finished under .500 since 1990).

So again, why are we continually doing the exact opposite of how winning teams become winning teams? We have a GM who signs and trades for aging, veteran talent that only serves to block young players from attaining their potential. We hire a manager who thinks small-ball in the long-ball league. And we have an owner either too clueless or too timid to step in and pull the plug and start over.

That’s why I don’t care about this season, or even about this team right now. Its one thing to be bad, but there’s a clear plan and vision in place to improve. (Like the Chiefs). Its another thing to be bad, and keep regressing with no end in sight. That’s the Royals. There’s no end in sight.

In this division, there’s no reason you can’t compete. Every other team won this division at least once last decade, and if Detroit had beaten the Twins in the one-game playoff last year, that would have been every other team winning this division at least twice last decade:

2000: White Sox. Lost to Mariners in Divisional Round.
2001: Indians. Lost to Yankees in League Championship Series.
2002: Twins. Lost to Angels in League Championship Series.
2003: Twins. Lost to Yankees in Divisional Round.
2004: Twins. Lost to Yankees in Divisional Round.
2005: White Sox. Won World Series over Astros.
2006: Tigers. Lost to Cardinals in World Series.
2007: Indians. Lost to Red Sox in League Championship Series.
2008: White Sox. Lost to Rays in Divisional Round.
2009: Twins (beat Tigers in one game playoff). Lost to Yankees in Divisional Round.

Even this year, it’s a wide open competition. Every team can make a legitimate argument for at least contending for the title, save for one.

The Royals.

Yes, based on starting pitching alone, I could make an argument that the Royals will contend. Especially if they sign Washburn, then you could argue the Royals have the best staff in the division. (An argument you can already make anyways). And with Soria, we know any lead entering the 9th is probably safe.

But who’s gonna score for this team? The offense is atrocious. I envision a 1991 / 1992 type Royals team this year. Tremendous starting pitching. A decent patchwork bullpen with a rock solid closer.

And an inability to average 3 runs a game, losing a ton of 2-1, 3-2 contests.

I say 75-87, 3rd place, AL Central. The ceiling for this team is probably 86 wins. The floor is probably 60. I hope my pessimism is just a phase, that this team will overachieve and this team will be in the race the whole way.

But my days of unproven optimism for these guys are gone. I will not be there Monday for Opening Day. I haven’t missed an Opening Day since … uuh … I honestly don’t recall the last time I wasn’t there. I even came home from college every year to make Opening Day. (jimmy buffett voice) Come Monday, I will not be there.

I’m sure I’ll still be my usual tailgate loving self as spring and summer progress, because it is what I am. I live for those days of sitting around the grill, enjoying a frosty cold one, tossing some washers in the 90 degree sunny heat. I’m just not sure that this summer, I’ll ever transition from the parking lot to the outfield. These guys have to earn my ticket money this year. No more blind loyalty.

Prove me wrong, Boyz n Blue. Please. Prove me wrong.

AL East Champ: Yankees
AL West Champ: Angels
AL Central Champ: Twins
AL Wildcard: Rays

AL Champs: Twins over Yankees in 7

World Series: Phillies over Twins in 6

World Champs: Philadelphia Phillies.