“They say bad things happen? For a reason.
But no wise words? Are gonna stop the bleeding.
Because she’s moved on, while I’m still grieving.
And when a heart breaks? It don’t break even!
What am I gonna do,
When the best part of me?
Was always you? And
What am I supposed to say,
When I’m all choked up,
And you’re OK?
I’m falling to pieces!
I’m falling to pieces!
I’m falling to pieces!
I’m falling to pieces! …
I’m still alive, but I’m barely breathing.
Just praying to a God, that I don’t believe in.
Because I got time, while she got freedom.
‘Cause when a heart breaks? It don’t break even …”
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The Chiefs Prognostication:
I have a few things I want to say about Sunday’s defeat to the Steelers, but I want to begin those thoughts, by flashing back to the 1990s.
If you followed the NFL back then, you knew the NFC Title Game every year was going to involve two of three teams -- the Cowboys, the 49ers, and the Packers. (Every NFC Title Game from 1992 through 1997 featured two of those three teams ... save for 1996, when the Carolina Panthers somehow were given a seat at the grown-up's table.) And somewhat surprisingly, each of the teams owned one of the others … and was owned by one of the others.
The 49ers could never beat the Packers … and always beat the Cowboys.
The Cowboys could never beat the 49ers … and always beat the Packers.
And the Packers beat the 49ers like a government mule … and kept failing to shatter the glass ceiling known as the Dallas Cowboys.
It didn’t matter where Brett Favre faced the Cowboys -- he lost. Always. Don’t believe me? In his first five seasons leading the Packers, the Packers went 0-4 in the regular season, and 0-3 in the playoffs, against the Cowboys:
* 1993 Week Five: Cowboys 36, Packers 14.
* 1993 Divisional Round: Cowboys 27, Packers 17.
* 1994 Week Thirteen: Cowboys 42, Packers 31.
* 1994 Divisional Round: Cowboys 35, Packers 9.
* 1995 Week Six: Cowboys 34, Packers 24.
* 1995 NFC Championship: Cowboys 38, Packers 27.
* 1996 Week Twelve: Cowboys 21, Packers 6.
Seven matchups in five years. All Packer defeats. And thus, a narrative began to be born, that both sides of this epic rivalry bought into: until the Packers overcame the demon known as the Cowboys, they’d never truly be great.
(Note: this was a lie, as the 1996 Packers won the Super Bowl … but we were one play away from an eighth Cowboys / Packers showdown in the NFC Title Game, and nobody on either side thought the Packers would win that game, if we’re all being honest here.)
In 1997, the Packers got off to a tremendous start, while the Cowboys … eeh, not so much. And as Week Thirteen approached, the Cowboys departed for Lambeau at 6-5, fresh off one of the most exciting “how the bloody hell did this just happen?!?!?!” wins of the Triplets era (trust me, I was there), and the Packers stood ready at 8-3, fresh off 0-10 Indianapolis stunning them at the gun.
And the narrative began again: can Green Bay beat Dallas?
And for three quarters, the answer was -- as always -- “probably not”. Emmitt Smith scored on the first play of the fourth quarter to cut the lead to 24-17 (the game was tied at 10 at the half), and you could feel -- be it in Lambeau, or the couch in my apartment in Lake Arlington -- the tide turn. Dallas was going to somehow, someway, yet again, find a way to win.
Only … they didn’t. Because Green Bay proceeded to drop not one, not two, but three touchdowns on the Cowboys over the next six minutes, to pull away in a laugher 45-17.
Brett Favre finally had his victory over the Cowboys. And for all intents and purposes, the Cowboys dynasty died that afternoon. (I’d argue it truly died two weeks later, on a Monday night against the Panthers, even if it technically limped along a couple more seasons … but it definitely suffered the fatal blow that painful afternoon, twenty years ago.)
I mention this, because as I noted in the Week Six picks, the Chiefs simply cannot beat Ben Roethlisberger. Ben ran his record to 7-1 against the Chiefs Sunday -- the sole defeat being a truly “how the hell did this happen?” upset for the ages back in 2009. It doesn’t matter where he faces us -- home or away, regular or postseason, the dude simply wins. Period.
2006 in Pittsburgh. 2011 at Arrowhead. 2012 in Pittsburgh. 2014 in Pittsburgh. 2016 in Pittsburgh. 2016 in the playoffs at Arrowhead. And now, yesterday.
In many regards, it’s like peyton manning. The Chiefs beat peyton once in 2004, in one of the funnest games of the Richard A. Vermeil era * … until the last time they faced him. The other fourteen times peyton faced the Chiefs, he won. 1999 at Indy. 2000 at Arrowhead. 2001 at Arrowhead. 2003 in the playoffs at Arrowhead. 2006 in the playoffs at Indy. 2007 at Indy. 2010 at Indy. 2012 at Arrowhead and fake mile high. 2013 at Arrowhead and fake mile high. 2014 at Arrowhead and fake mile high. 2015 at Arrowhead.
(Note: the Chiefs did win in Indy in 2011 … a game peyton did not participate in. Just like the Chiefs beat the Steelers in 2015 … a game Ben did not participate in.)
(Double note: God bless, it’s frustrating being a fan of this team sometimes.)
But then came that finale, Week Ten 2015. When the Chiefs rolled into fake mile high, so obliterated peyton that he was benched for brock, and emerged with a 0.00 QB rating, more picks (five) than completions (two) and broken feet (one) combined, and the realization that “uuh, it might be time to retire”.
1997 Brett Favre had to not just defeat his biggest nemesis, he had to DESTROY them, to truly level up the rivalry.
The Chiefs had to not just defeat its’ biggest nemesis two years ago, we had to DESTROY them, to tip the rivalry squarely in our direction.
Chiefs fans?
I want one more shot at Ben. And I don’t care where -- here, there, or Ol’ Pete King’s proverbial neutral field in Wichita. (Which, probably, wouldn’t be all that neutral, if the Chiefs are involved.)
Because … well, let me explain why.
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(*: this game also led to my favorite Len Dawson comment of all time. Chiefs up 45-35 with less than two to play, and peyton throws an interception to Greg Wesley … who begins to try to return it. Len: “Get down. This is over. Jesus, just get -- OOH, nice block!” It wasn’t quite as great as Bill Grigsby asking a former Chiefs player “how the f*ck are you!” to open an interview on the FOX Pregame Show ** … but it’s still pretty good. “Jesus, just get -- OOH, nice block!”)
(**: that interview is when they took the proverbial keys away from our Ol’ Pardner, and banned him to The Pavilion on (I’m guessing) a forty second delay. Thanks, as always, to ("family guy" voice) the fellas at the freaking FCC.)
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I was at that Monday Nighter in Dallas twenty one years ago, the 21-6 Cowboys victory best remembered for Chris Boniol setting a NFL record (at the time) by booting seven successful field goals. The last one occurred after the game was out of reach inside of two minutes (do the math, people), and someone let Barry Switzer know the record for most field goals in a game at that point was six, so Ol’ Bar called a timeout to trot Mr. Boniol out there to set the record (and rub it in a hated rivals’ face, always a positive in my book … especially if you’re doing the rubbing).
To say Mike Holmgren (then the Packers coach) was irate, is an understatement. He admitted as much -- that the Packers ran up the score on Dallas a year later, in retaliation for that field goal attempt.
To say Brett Favre was irate … is a grouse, criminite understatement.
Because the only reason Chris Boniol got his shot that evening, was due to a late Brett Favre turnover, that put the Cowboys in business deep in Packers territory.
Mr. Favre swore that night he’d never forget the insult that was Chris Boniol’s seventh field goal. (And he didn’t -- he only lost to Dallas one more time in his career (in 1999, in what wound up being a “winner’s in, loser’s out” showdown in Week Twelve), and his last meaningful victory as a quarterback was a 34-3 depantsing of the Cowboys in the 2009 Divisional Round … as a Viking.)
It took something so offensive as to be beyond insulting, to finally get the Packers over the Cowboys hump.
I’d like to think it took the disgrace of Jamaal Charles’ fumble -- the second of two costly touchdowns inside of the last minute of the Week Two defeat to those people -- that finally make “Fat” Andy Reid and this organization do anything and everything to finally give those people the business up the ass they deserve.
(The Chiefs have not lost since against ANY team in the AFC West since that awful night, going 12-0 … including 3-0 against those people in three impressive showings: the game that (almost) ended peyton’s career, “The Doink”, and Dontari Poe pulling a tebow on those demon possessed c-words.)
So here’s my only question exiting Sunday:
Was “the single most bullsh*t catch I’ve ever witnessed live”, the moment the Chiefs finally reached their red line in the sand, against Ben and the Steelers? (Note: do NOT click on that link unless you have a very stiff libation, and/or a very potent joint, readily available. You're gonna need both -- a lot of both -- watching that unfold again.)
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Sunday? 3rd and 2, at pretty close to midfield, a little over four minutes to play. If you were there, you know how loud -- how insanely (and proudly) loud, Arrowhead was Sundayday. The Chiefs, frankly, didn’t deserve us.
I turned to Jake (the STM I sit by) after second down, and semi-seriously said “here we are again -- same bat time, same f*cking bat channel as exactly ten months ago!” And damn if it wasn’t accurate. (Also, props to me for the old school “Batman” reference, right? #ripmayorwest) The Chiefs, somehow fighting, clawing, scratching their way back to within two points in a game they had no business winning against the Steelers … who now faced a critical third down that could all but determine the game.
Ten months ago -- January 15, 2017 -- it was a 3rd and 7.
Sunday -- October 15, 2017 -- it was a 3rd and 2.
Both times, every damned person in the stadium knew where the pass was going.
Ten months ago, it was a perfect strike to Antonio Brown, for the first down that all but ended that game. (There were still a few kneel downs involved.)
Sunday, it was a less than perfect strike to Antonio Brown, that Phillip Gaines pretty much perfectly defended, batted … into the arm and helmet of Terrence Mitchell, who attempted to secure the pick … only to see it somehow land in the hands of Antonio Brown, who went fifty one yards for the touchdown.
I’m going to guess at least a few of you reading this, left after that touchdown with barely four to play, to put the Steelers up nine. And honestly, I’m not going to rip you if you did. I contemplated it. Only, I was focused on the Chiefs sideline after that play.
And I knew -- I freaking knew -- they had one last gasp in them.
Because that sideline wasn’t defeated.
It was p*ssed.
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I truly believe the Chiefs and Steelers will meet again in three months. The Steelers are going to win the AFC Norris, and probably by a comfortable margin. They’re going to win at least 11 games (they’re currently 4-2, with roadies to Detroit and Houston, plus home games against New England and Green Bay left), and grab at worst the three seed (exactly what they did last year). The Chiefs are going to win at least 11 games (gun to my head, we lose at Dallas (because we almost never win roadies I attend), lose to Buffalo (that game terrifies me), and lose at those people, to finish 12-4), earn a bye, and with a lil’ luck, somehow at least tie the Patriots to ensure a return matchup would be at Arrowhead.
(The Patriots, also 4-2, still have to play oakland in Mexico, travel to fake mile high and Pittsburgh, and host Atlanta on Sunday night. Then again, five of their last six are against divisional opponents, so they’re closing at worst 5-1.)
Sunday sucked in many regards. The Chiefs yet again crapped the bed at home against the Steelers. They yet again got pushed around at home by a team that really isn’t any better or worse than they are. They yet again had the ball, with a shot to tie or win, inside of three minutes against the Steelers, and failed.
But Sunday felt different. It didn’t have the cold, hard reality of a playoff defeat. It didn’t have the sting of “hey, we finally have a lead … eleven weeks into the season!” to it. It didn't have the embarrassment of "it's 22-0 and we're not even five minutes into this thing yet!" to it.
Sunday felt different. It didn’t feel like an ending, or an inevitable conclusion, or a reason to projectile vomit in frustration. (OK, fine -- it did feel like that.)
Sunday felt like a turning point.
It felt like a beginning.
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And so, here we are. Week Seven. The Chiefs have the best record in the NFL (along with the 5-1 Eagles … whose sole loss is at Arrowhead). They’re 3-1 against teams currently leading their divisions, 2-1 against teams that won their division last year, have faced competition that is 20-9 in games not against the Chiefs, and we now have a chance over the next twelve days to all but end the AFC West division title chase. The Chiefs can knock the raiders (effectively) five back with nine to play, with a win tonight. They can knock those people (at least) three back with eight to play, a week from Monday -- and potentially (mike gundy voice) four, if the “Super” Chargers beat those people on Sunday.
Sunday, the Chiefs suffered a gut-punch defeat. They endured one of the most “you’ve got to be f*cking kidding me!” plays in franchise history with the game nearly on the line … and still, they had the ball, three minutes later, almost at midfield, with 1:08 to play and only needing a touchdown.
They played without nearly forty percent of the starting offensive lineup as projected two months ago. No Spencer Ware. No Chris Conley. No Mitch Morse. No LDT. (And no Charcandrick West, no Albert Wilson, and on that last drive, no Tyreek Hill.) They played without the heart of the defense (Eric Berry); they played without the soul (at least in his mind) of the defense (Tamba Hali). Their second best corner (Steven Nelson) is still at least a week or two away from seeing action; we’re probably the first team since your early 2000s Giants to start a white dude in the secondary and not get mocked off the field (Danny Sorenson … and yes, the fact he has the same name as my most hated character in television history conflicts me).
The raiders will throw everything -- including the proverbial kitchen sink -- at the Chiefs tonight. They’ll probably have some success at it, especially if derek carr can get the passing game humming along. They have the blueprint for how to at least slow down the Chiefs offense -- the Steelers showed the nation how to do it. This is the worst type of scenario in many regards for the Chiefs to be facing tonight: a desperate yet talented team, at home, in prime time, with quite literally their season on the line.
This is going to be stressful. This is going to be brutal. You’re gonna want to fall to pieces at times tonight watching this unfold.
But in the end? Scroll back up to the beginning of this post. Some teams just OWN other teams. Some QBs simply are OWNED by other franchises. The Chiefs have won five straight, and seven of eight, against the raiders since “Fat” Andy Reid arrived. The only win derek carr has over the Chiefs was in his first start facing them -- the 0-10 debacle from three years ago. He’s 0-5 since, with an average margin of defeat of fifteen points, per Adam Teicher at ESPN.com.
Just like Green Bay and Brett Favre when it came to the Cowboys? Just like the Red and Gold when it came to peyton manning, and comes to Ben and the Steelers? Just like derek carr and every AFC West team when it comes to the Chiefs?
Until I see it happen, it ain’t gonna happen.
* Chiefs (-3) 17, at raiders 10. Somehow, someway, “Fat” Andy does what he does best: win.
Full picks for Week Seven to post by Sunday morning. It won’t be much of a post, since I dumped my efforts into this one … but after going a very Stevo-like 4-10-0 both SU and ATS last week, I’ve gotta get back in y’all’s good graces ...
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