Sunday, October 22, 2017

week seven non-chiefs picks

Last Week SU: 4-10-0.
Season to Date SU: 58-33-0.

Last Week ATS: 4-10-0.
Season to Date ATS: 58-31-2.

Last Week “Screw You Pete King” Upset / Week: dammit.
Season to Date “Screw You Pete King” Upset / Week: 4-2-0 both SU and ATS.
This Week’s “Screw You Pete King” Upset / Week: Colts (+3) over Jaguars.

The Non-Jets, Non-Chiefs Predictions:

* Byes: Lions, Texans.  
* at Bears (+3) 31, Panthers 21.  
* Titans 21, at Browns (+5 ½) 20.  “Webster” Game O’ The Week honors.
* at Packers (+6) 24, Saints 20.
* “Super” Cardinals (+3 ½) 27, Rams 20 (Game in London).
* at Vikings 24, Ravens (+5 ½) 21.
* at Bills (-3) 34, Bucs 24.  “Good Times” Game O’ The Week honors.
* at Colts (+3) 16, Jaguars 14.  “ALF” Game O’ The Week honors.
* Cowboys (-6) 27, at 49ers 20.
* at Steelers 24, Bengals (+5) 22.
* at Giants (+6) 26, Seahawks 14.
* at “Super” Chargers (-1) 28, those people 24.
* “Shane” Falcons (+3 ½) 41, at Patriots 24.
* Redskins (+4 ½) 29, at Eagles 14.

The “Klassy” Kevin Keitzman Tweet O’ The Week:

For once, I’m here to praise the (allegedly) pants-pulling klassy one … if only because his tweets from Thursday night, mirrored EXACTLY what my reaction to the Chiefs punting, up six, with a little over two minutes to play, was:


Look it, few -- if any -- people reading this, are more biased towards the Red and Gold than I am.  And while he frustrates me, few -- if any -- people reading this, love “Fat” Andy Reid more than I do.  He is the single greatest thing to happen to the Kansas City Chiefs since Carl Peterson attended the upset over the Bengals to open December 1988.  (Which is arguably the second most important moment in franchise history, if we’re being honest here.  Which, given that it’s me, is never a given, if we’re being honest here.)

But what, pray tell, was the advantage of punting the ball back to a raiders team that you really hadn’t stopped all night long?

I joked with my buddy Drey over text messaging that “next team to punt loses”.  That was in the second quarter.  Everyone knew this would come down to the last minute, and the team with the ball would probably win.  Neither defense was worth a sh*t for most of the night.  

In the last three weeks -- really, every week so far this season save for Week Two -- “The Chiefense” has been pushed all over the field by every opponent we’ve faced.  It took 42 points to beat the Patriots (who led 17-7, in case you forget, before most of us were on our second beer).  The defense broke the entire second half in Los Angeles, didn’t force a single stop the entire second half against the Redskins, gave up 34 to the Texans and their rookie QB (which, to be fair, is 23 less than the Titans gave up to them), got taken to the woodshed by the Steelers, and were treated like Rev. Sharpton’s proverbial government mule by the raiders for the first fifty seven minutes and spare change on Thursday night … before really being treated like a government mule for the last two minutes and spare change, by the raiders on Thursday night.

The Chiefense sucks folks.  It is, in a word from Chuck Barkley, “TURRIBLE!”  We suck on defense!  Jim Mora Sr. would be staging epic press conferences if he ran this defense.  (Although to be fair, Jim Mora Jr. would be asking “what’s a defense?”, if he ran it.)

At some point -- and here, peoples and peepettes, is my single biggest b*tch about the Richard A. Vermeil era -- at some point, when you have one side of the ball that can WIN you the game, and one side of the ball that has no shot of making that happen, don’t you HAVE to do EVERYTHING in your power to keep that side on the field?

Richard A. Vermeil never figured that out until it was too late.  Those 2002-2005 Chiefs could drop 40 on anyone.  The 2002 Chiefs dropped 40 or more on four teams.  They went a non-shocking 4-0 in those games.  They scored between 30 and 39 four times as well.  They went an astonishing 0-4 in those games.  Simply put, the 2002 Chiefs HAD to score AT LEAST 40 points to be assured of a win.  Let that sink in.

And yet, time after time after time, Richard A. Vermeil punted or made an otherwise questionable decision, in those 30-39 point games.  He didn’t go for two on the final play at New England.  The Chiefs lost in overtime.  He punted at San Diego up six on a 4th and 1 inside four to play.  He lost by one.  He tried a forty yard field goal with a kicker whose range was 35 against those people, up seven, on a 4th and 1 inside three minutes to play, with those people out of timeouts.  He lost in overtime.  Even to this day, if you go to NFL.com and pull up the game recap, it notes “the kick was short”.  Every godd*mned person in Arrowhead that day knew it would be short, save for one person -- Richard A. Vermeil.

(The loss at Seattle was the exception; the Chiefs scored to pull within seven at 32-39 with :32 to play, and Mr. Vermeil correctly tried the onside kick, which was unsuccessful.)

Like it or not -- and I frankly don’t have a preference either way, which twenty seven year old me is calling bullsh*t on, but anyways -- like it or not, the Chiefs have decided to load up on the offensive side of the ball, to win the game.  And it’s going to be this way for the very foreseeable future, given (a) the investment in Patrick Mahomes “Of the Chiefs”, and (b) the fact that the core of our defense is aged and/or constantly hurt.  And that’s fine!  No, really -- it is!  

You win in this league -- and I am increasingly convinced of this -- you succeed in the NFL by excelling on one side of the ball.  Pick your side, offense or defense, but whatever side you choose, load up and do your damndest to put them in a position to win you the game.

I’m convinced “Fat” Andy looked at his roster two years ago, after the defeat in New England, and realized that for the next 3-4 years at least, his best shot at success lays in loading up on offense.  And for the record, I think he’s right.

What “Fat” Andy apparently hasn’t figured out, is the same mistake Richard A. Vermeil never grasped, until midway through his final season, when in his own words, he realized “I’m too f*cking old to play for overtime”.  When you load up on one side?  Do every f*cking thing you can, to get that side on the field as much as humanly possible!  

If that means you go for it on 4th and 15 at your own 30 up 6?  Then DO IT!  Seriously, what makes more sense, and I swear this does, at least to me: going for that 4th and 15 on Thursday night, knowing if you fail, the raiders likely take the lead, but you get the ball back, needing only a field goal, with about 1:30 to go … or punting it away, giving the raiders not one, not two, not three, but (mike gundy voice) four! attempts in the last eight seconds on goal to go, with no shot to recover if they succeed?  And spare me the “well, in hindsight” bullsh*t argument.  There is no argument to be made here.  The raiders had pushed us all over the field all night long THROUGH THE AIR.  Their c-word of a quarterback already was over 300 yards (as was Sir Alex).  You REALLY think a unit that couldn’t stop derek carr when it didn’t matter as much, would stop him with the game on the line?  

THAT is the bullsh*t argument people!  Because they couldn’t!  

And they didn’t.

Again -- what do you have more faith in: Sir Alex completing a sixteen yard pass to Travis Kelce or Demetrius Harris on dueling out routes on fourth down … or a defense that couldn’t stop the corpse of Hugh Hefner from scoring, stopping a damned good raider offense from scoring?

(Although to be fair, the man is interned next to Marilyn Monroe. If corpses can score, you know those two are screwing the pooch at this point.)

The Chiefs still have five games left this year against damned good offensive teams -- two against those people (beginning next Monday night), one against the raiders, one against the Cowboys, and one against the Bills.  Thankfully, three of those are at home.  But if the Chiefs brain trust continues to make decisions based on brain farts, it’s not going to matter; they’ll lose.

I’m not a “sky is falling” type of dude.  This team is going to win at least 11 games, they are going to be at least the three seed (and mostly likely a top two), and they are going to have the ball, inside of three minutes, in a one score game in the AFC Title Game.

And when that plays out -- when the Chiefs are playing the Steelers or Patriots on January 22nd, and it’s approximately 5:23pm on that glorious Sunday afternoon, which unit do you want on the field, irregardless of down or distance or location of said game -- the Chiefs offense, or The Chiefense?

If your answer is The Chiefense?

Then in the words of the real owner of those people, Homer J. Simpson: “you just don’t understand football, Marge”.

The Watching Party Plans:

There are no The Watching Party Plans, as the Chiefs game has already occurred.  

The Tailgating Plans:

There are no The Tailgating Plans, as this is a Chiefs road game I did not attend.  And damn, it sucks that I had to miss the annual trek up to Sioux Falls to watch this one in The Garage.  I love technology, and FaceTime is a wonderful thing … but it just isn’t the same as being there in person.  Next year, raider nation north.  Next year.  I swear.  I plan to never miss this week again.

(Note: as always, that is a Stevo promise.  Assume it isn’t worth the words typed and/or said.)

“Disreputable Mexican Food Truck” Update:

Good news!  The construction of North Broadway finished on Wednesday!  The cones are gone, the barrels are gone, the steel plates … well sh*t, they’re still there * .  But North Broadway is wide, wide open again from (at least) 39th Street through the merge onto northbound I-35!

Bad news.  “Disreputable Mexican Food Truck” didn’t show back up on Thursday or Friday, to reclaim its spot next to the entrance to Children’s Mercy Broadway.  Hopefully it’ll show back up next week.  I miss their tacos.

Not sure what to make of it news?  A food truck DID show up on Friday!  It’s a Greek food truck.  And I have to be honest -- I don’t know what to think.  For starters, I love me some pita and gyros and Jesus God Above, if they can make a salad that even approaches Mr. Gyros’ Mediterranean salad, I’d probably become their best customer and single-handedly keep them in business ** .  On the other hand, it’s a Greek food truck.  If you do even the slightest thing wrong with Greek food, you’re going to be pooping out worse than if you ate Don Chilito’s for lunch.  (And trust me -- you do NOT want to be pooping out worse than if you ate Don Chilito’s.  Pooping out after eating at Don Chilito’s is usually a four to five day ordeal.  At least for me.)

I’ll try to give “Potentially Disreputable Greek Food Truck” a try next week if it’s still there.  But please, let’s all hope and pray “Disreputable Mexican Food Truck” is back.  I really, really, really miss the tacos.

(*: the steel plate a block from home, at the intersection of 84th and Madison, has been there since mid-April.  I’m guessing it’s never leaving … even though the Google Fiber folks finished laying cable while I was still on the Zurich payroll.)

(**: at least it wouldn’t be a liquor store I single handedly keep in business.  For once.  Because Matchette Liquors was gone not even what, a year?, after I moved from western Shawnee to South KC … and Mike’s expanded from a corner shack, into most of the strip mall, at 85th and Wornall not even two months after I moved to Waldo to start this year.  Coincidence?  I’ll let y’all be the judge.)

The Jets Best Guess:

There are few things in life that p*ss me off more than, uuh, p*ss poor officiating.  

I have no f*cking clue how ASJ’s catch wasn’t a catch, let alone wasn’t a touchdown.  All I know is this -- my dad rarely if ever swears.  He actually thinks simply saying “hell” or “damn” demeans a conversation.  It’s not that he’s opposed to swearing or has a major issue with it -- how can he, given me and my brother’s vocabulary.  He just think swearing cheapens your thought.  As he’s noted before: “if you can’t express yourself adequately enough that a four year old knows exactly what you mean, why are you even trying?”  (On that, he has a damned solid point.  Whoops -- I mean, rock solid point.)

But he let one fly over his thoughts on the “incompletion”.  Which means it really had to be something awful.

And yet, like the Chiefs next week, despite the whizzed away golden opportunity last week was?  This week’s is bigger.

Sunday, the Jets have an opportunity to really stake a claim in the Wild Card discussion.  The AFC seems to be reeling back to the proverbial mean -- ten of the sixteen teams are within a game of .500 either way, or right at .500.  

Even if you believe (as I do) that the Chiefs, Steelers, and Patriots will walk away with their divisions over the second half of the season … and acknowledge (as we all have to) that SOMEONE has to win the AFC South and get drilled 41-13 at home to open the postseason … that’s insane.  We’re in Week Seven, and literally every AFC team save for Cleveland can be within (at worst) two games of first place when this week is over.  That is … well, I’d argue it’s awesome.  But still, it’s crazy.

If the Jets win this game, there’s a reasonable chance they’ll be 6-4 at worst at their bye.  (Next three are “Shane” Falcons / Bills (a sh*ttacular Thursday Nighter!) / at Bucs.)  Their last six is brutal on paper … but paper tends to get shredded like a star player’s knee as the season progresses.  (Last six are Panthers / Chiefs / at those people / at Saints / “Super” Chargers / at Patriots.)  If they win Sunday, I can make a reasonable argument for them being 9-6 (at worst) 10-5 (spring one upset -- especially next week if the “Shane” Falcons win Sunday night) entering the finale … and if you’re the Patriots, with either the one or two seed wrapped up (note: highly likely), or you’re locked into the three (note: very possible), do you REALLY risk the next four weeks to beat your hated rival you’ve owned for twenty years?

(Note: I pray this is NOT the scenario the Chiefs face on New Year’s Eve -- bury those people by playing the starters all day … or rest for the playoffs.  And that is a scenario very, very much in play, even after Thursday night.)

I want Gang Green to draft Mason Rudolph.  I think he’s the best QB in this upcoming draft.  (Note: I once said this about Ryan Mallett.  Jesus.)  I really believe in Mason Rudolph.  He’ll be there at 21 in all likelihood … which is where your worst playoff team (record wise) that craps out on Wild Card Weekend drafts.

Sunday, we get a matchup between the only two teams in the NFL that have yet to post more than two touchdowns in a game.  This one is going to make you want to hurl every available, uuh, hurlable item, at your watching device, it will be that ugly.

But as for who will win?  Because barring torturing every person in attendance with ten additional minutes of hell on earth known as “overtime”, someone has to?

(Pause).

(fidelity ad guy voice) Why not.

* Jets (+3) 6, at Dolphins 3.

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week twelve picks

The Statisticals. Last Week SU: 8-6-0. Season to Date SU: 98-62-1. Last Week ATS: 7-7-0. Season to Date ATS: 75-80-6. Last Week Upset / ...