stevo's 2019 nfl coaches power poll

"Well, she's all you'd ever want --
She's the kind I like to flaunt
And take to dinner!

And she always knows her place --
She's got style, she's got grace;
She's a winner!

She's a lady!
Whoa, whoa, whoa, she's a lady!
Talking about that little lady!
And the lady is mine! ..."

-- "She's a Lady" by Tom Jones.  (Pause).  What?  (Pause).  Oh come on!  There's at least fifteen thousand women out there who'd do a better job, than half the coaches in this thing! ...

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And now, for at least the twentieth year, is the annual exercise in abject stupidity: the NFL Head Coaches Power Poll.

I know this thing dates back to (at least) the fall of 2000, when "The Voice of Reason" and myself had a spirited debate after the Chiefs rallied to close down Real Mile High in style, over where Gunther "Confident and Classy" Cunningham ranked amongst the league's coaches.

Sadly, this thing is nowhere near as fun twenty years later, as teams have generally speaking, figured out how to distinguish between a clueless dolt named Mike, and a semi-competent dude named Mike.

(There was a time about fifteen years ago when it seemed half the league's head coaches were named Mike.  As in shanahan, Holmgren, Martz, Sherman, "Meathead" Tice, Mularkey, Nolan, and at least a couple I'm forgetting.)

As always, this is a subjective Power Poll composed of one voter: me.

And as always, a few ground rules:

1. The lower your number, the better the coach.  Or, to phrase it in terms anyone can understand, 1 trumps 32.  (And God, how I hate that simply using the word “trumps” repulses me.)

2. 1 is Chuck Noll good; 32 is Ray Rhodes / Rich Kotite awful.  

3. Anyone who appears as a lower number than your coach, I prefer to your coach.  For example, my team’s coach is “Fat” Andy Reid.  Let’s say “Fat” Andy checks in at number four in this exercise.  If you’re ranked 5^th or lower, I’d keep “Fat” Andy as my coach over you.  If you’re ranked 3^rd or higher, I’d fire “Fat” Andy to hire you. 

And finally

4. I tend to be very hard on first year coaches.  Because it’s hard to know the career trajectory of these dudes.  For example, let’s say your team’s coach posted these results in his first three seasons at the helm:

Year One: 12-4, Division Title, L Conference Championship.

Year Two: 12-4, Division Title, W Super Bowl.

Year Three: 10-6, Division Title, L Divisional Round.

You’d expect that dude to have a solid four, five years left at the helm, right?

The dude who posted those three seasons … was Barry Switzer, from 1994-1996.  He was fired after going 6-10 in 1997.

Conversely, let’s say your team’s coach posted these results in his first three years at the helm:

Year One: 2-3, no titles or postseason.

Year Two: 7-9, no titles or postseason.

Year Three: 6-10, no titles or postseason.

You’d expect that dude to be fired, right?

The dude who posted those three seasons … was Wayne Fontes, who then proceeded to make the playoffs four of the next five years, including posting the Lions only postseason win (to date) of the Super Bowl era in that stretch.

(In the interest of full disclosure, I lived in Dallas during the Switzer years, and have always considered him a grousely underrated head coach.  Even with all the injuries in 1997, he still had Dallas at 6-6, facing a 4th and 2 to save the season on that fateful Monday night against Carolina, before the floor collapsed via a 5 game losing streak to end his career.  Also, Wayne "Rasputin" Fontes is also my favorite head coach of all time.  You gotta love a dude who leads a franchise in both career wins and career losses.)

Got it?  Good.  Let’s knock this one out, because God knows the season predictions post(s) don’t write themselves.

Let alone see the schedule runs fill themselves out …

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32. Matt Patricia, Detroit Lions.  6-10 in year one may be his career high water mark.  I get that some people are high on the Lions this year.  I’m not one of them … although I make no promises that I am anything but high, in compiling this Power Poll.

31. Brian Flores, Miami Dolphins.  Probably the latest Belichick assistant to fail epically away from the Mother Ship.  I wasn’t impressed with this hire.  I sure as all hell wouldn’t have sh*t canned Adam Gase for him.  And as you’ll see momentarily?  That’s not exactly a ringing endorsement of Mr. Gase.

30. Kliff Kingsbury, Arizona “Super” Cardinals.  All you need to know about this dude, is that he couldn’t win with Patrick Mahomes “Of The Chiefs” as his quarterback.  Unless you believe Kyler Murray is better than Mr. Mahomes (and if you do, I can recommend a few reasonably competent mental health professionals for you to talk to), this isn’t going to end well.

29. Zac Taylor, Cincinnati Bengals.  Of all the first year dudes, I think he’ll be the one to stick around the longest.  If only because Mike Brown won’t pay him to sit and do nothing to earn his contract.

28. Pat Shurmur, New York Giants.  Christ.  How did this guy get a second shot?  What, pray tell, did anyone see in his two years in Cleveland to make them think “this guy knows what he’s doing”?  My pick for first fired head coach, and I predict it’ll happen before Halloween.

27. vic fangio, those people.  Hang on.  (stevo literally crying from laughing so hard.)  Hold on.  (stevo unable to stop laughing.)  OK, ok, I swear, this time guys, I can do thi – (stevo erupting into uncontrollable laughter and tears of joy).  And to think – he’s without question – (allard baird voice) without question! – a 200% upgrade over vance joseph!  (stevo unable to stop laughing.)  Please, those people – never fire satan.  He’s doing an outstanding job as your general manager!  (stevo howling with joy and uncontrollable laughter at the latest those people mistake.)

26. Adam Gase, New York Jets.  Hang on.  (stevo bashing his head against his desk).  Hold on.  (stevo crying tears of sorrow and terror.)  OK, ok, I swear, this time guys, I can do thi – (stevo chugging a handle of Tito’s vodka).  And to think – he’s without question – (allard baird voice) without question! – a 200% upgrade over Todd Bowles!  (stevo resuming chugging said Tito’s vodka).  At least the Jets did have the common sense to fire their general manager.

25. Matt LaFleur, Green Bay Packers.  As will become evident when my season picks go up later this week, I have the Packers in the playoffs, for what it’s worth.  But then again, even Mike McCarthy was usually good for a division title and a playoff win each year with Aaron Rodgers at the helm, so that’s not saying much.

24. Mike Vrabel, Tennessee Titans.  Here’s a helpful hint Titans: if you’re gonna fire a coach who wins a playoff game at Arrowhead, because he isn’t winning enough?  You damned well better not hire a coach who posts the same damned record (9-7), and then sh*ts the bed at home in a de facto playoff game to end the season.  Vrabel probably won’t see season three, and deservedly so.

23. Freddie Kitchens, Cleveland Browns.  As will become evident when my season picks go up later this week, I have him as the most successful of the first year coaches.  Which probably says more about the quality of the first year head coaches, than it does Mr. Kitchens.

22. Kyle Shanahan, San Francisco 49ers.  I think the guy can coach.  God knows I trembled in fear watching my team face his dad (at least) twice a year for two decades.  But if he doesn’t start live up to the hype this fall, I highly doubt he gets a 4^th year to earn his reputation.

21. Jason Garrett, Dallas Cowboys.  Think back, Chiefs fans, to my statement after the 2006 season, that Herm Edwards had accomplished as much in one year, as Richard A. Vermeil did in five (namely, reach the playoffs once, and then lose a competitive playoff game Indy once we got there).  

(Also -- "Fat" Andy managed the same "success", to open his tenure here in Kansas City.)

So what, pray tell, of meaningful value has Jason Garrett won in his decade at the helm?  Jerry Jones used to fire two time defending Super Bowl coaches for speaking out of turn after a bourbon or six too many at the hotel bar.  What does Mr. Garrett have on Mr. Jones to keep his job for this long?  Kiddie clown porn?  I would hope it’s Super Bowl or demotion for Mr. Garrett.  This team is far too talented to crap out in the Divisional Round again.  Let alone open 3-5 or worse yet again.

20. Doug Marrone, Jacksonville Jaguars.  On the positive side, once a bright, intelligently run NFL franchise hires current Syracuse coach Dino Babers after this season to helm their franchise, at least Mr. Marrone can go back to his former stomping grounds, and demolish all the progress Mr. Babers has made over the last three years.  Because Ol’ Doug’s gonna be looking for a new job this offseason.  If not by Week Seven.

19. Mike Zimmer, Minnesota Vikings.  When 8-7-1 is rock bottom, you’re a pretty solid coach.  Also, from this point on, I’d be fine with any of these gentlemen coaching the Kansas City Chiefs.  I’d just prefer a select handful of the remaining gentlemen on this list, over the majority of the field, as my coach.

18. Ron “Riverboat” Rivera, Carolina Panthers.  In the interest of full disclosure, I love coaches who play the odds on 4^th down, versus those who punt like a p*ssy.  Nobody plays the odds better than Ol’ Riverboat.  Then again, I always double 11 no matter what, I'll double a 10 against anything other than an ace, and I ran up over $30,000 in gambling losses in my 20's.  So what the hell do I know about successfully navigating the gambling odds against you?

17. Jay Gruden, Washington Redskins.  I wouldn’t wish working under Dan “Chainsaw” Snyder on my worst enemy.  (Pause).  OK, fine, I would.  But other than my worst enemy or five, I wouldn’t wish working under Mr. Snyder on anyone else in my life.

16. Bruce Arians, Tampa Bay Bucs.  If Jameis can’t get his sh*t together under Mr. Arians and Byron Leftwich, he’s finished.  Those are two of the brightest offensive minds in the sport.  Tampa will stun a few teams this year, and probably beat one or two squads they have no business beating, because of the brain trust on the sidelines.  And it’s been a long, long time since the words “brain trust” were associated with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a positive way.

15. Frank “Third” Reich, Indianapolis Colts.  I get Andrew Luck retired.  Having said that, there is no game on the home schedule that terrifies me more, than the Indianapolis Colts.  “Third” Reich is a damned good coach.  He’ll have Jacoby Brissett and the boys ready to go.  That Sunday Nighter to open October is gonna be a grizzley bear.  Also, Indy will be in the thick of both the AFC South and AFC Wild Card races entering December, even without Captain Luck and his squirrel oil.

(Also, slightly off topic: now that five years has passed, I'm still furious over the Chiefs collapse in Indy on my 37th birthday.  Having said that, now that five years have passed, I can only think of one sporting event I've ever attended that I'd rank as greater than that Wild Card game: the 2014 AL Wild Card game.  Who knew the two best (so far) games I'd ever attend, would be (a) in the same year, (b) see epic, "what are the f*cking odds" rallies by the home team to win, and (c) would lead to this, this, and this, to recap the events?  OK, fine, you may have seen (c) coming.  But I certainly never saw (a) or (b).)

14. jon “chucky” gruden, oakland raiders.  They’re closer to a Wild Card berth than the cellar.  That’s a solid improvement entering year two.

13. John Harbaugh, Baltimore Ravens.  If he can drag this Ravens team to the playoffs, he has to be considered a coaching genius.  Because I’m not seeing it, six days out from the Ravens opener.

12. Dan Quinn, Atlanta “Shane” Falcons.  A perfectly decent head coach who’s probably already hit his career ceiling – winning a conference title.

11. Anthony Lynn, Los Angeles “Super” Chargers.  I’ve rarely been more wrong about a coach, than I was about Mr. Lynn last year.  (I believe I had him rated 29^th or 30^th; I’m too lazy to go back and look it up.)  I plan to be completely and totally wrong about him again this year, by ranking him this high.

10. Omar Epps Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh Steelers.  If the Rooney family is stupid enough to fire this dude, there’ll be at least fifteen other teams fighting amongst themselves, Battle Royale style, to hire him.  The guy has never finished worse than .500.  He’s earned the right to survive a second mediocre year in a row, should it come to that.

9. Sean McDermott, Buffalo Bills.  He’s (almost) .500 in Buffalo, with a playoff berth, for crying out loud.  With Tyrod Taylor and Josh Allen under center to boot!  I can’t wait to see what this guy does with credible talent, like (sssshhhh!!!!!) the Bills have assembled this season.

8. Matt Nagy, Chicago Bears.  The latest in a long line of winning coaches to be plucked from a “Fat” Andy Reid staff.  Although seriously dude, it's not that hard to find a semi-decent place kicker.  The Chiefs grabbed ours off the Panthers practice squad.  We plucked our previous one off the crime-riddled streets of Brazil.  And before Mr. Santos, we drafted Mr. Irrelevant and enjoyed his successful run, before Mr. Succup left for Tennessee.  

7. Sean McVay, Los Angeles Rams.  I know – I probably have him four spots too low.  Other than Number Three to come (and I freely admit that one is pure bias), you tell me who you’d rank Mr. McVay over, of the six coaches left to come.

6. Pete Carroll, Seattle Seahawks.  Arguably the second most successful college coach to jump to the NFL (behind Jimmy Johnson).  Provided you ignore his two previous pro coaching tenures of course (Jets, Patriots).  The only reason he doesn’t rate higher than six with me is because he allowed the Dan Marino fake spike on his watch, and twenty five years later, I’m still ready to punch him in the throat for that indefensible display of, uuh, defensive incompetence.

5. Doug Pederson, Philadelphia Eagles.  I can only think of one other coach who won a Super Bowl in my lifetime, with a backup quarterback who entered the lineup in December due to the starter’s injury, and that’s Bill Parcells with Jeff Hostetler of your 1990 New York Giants.  What else needs to be said about Mr. Pederson’s coaching ability?

(I know -- Bill Belichick won a Super Bowl with his backup QB in Tom Brady in 2001.  But Mr. Brady entered in Week Three, not Week Fourteen.  Replacing your starting QB in early December is infinitely more difficult than replacing him in mid September.  Also, if you include Belichick / Brady, it just makes what Pederson / Foles did look even more impressive, if we're being honest here.)

4. Sean Payton, New Orleans Saints.  We’ll know in three years, four at the most, what truly drove the Saints success these last fifteen years: the coach or the quarterback.  The fact I have Mr. Payton ranked 4^th, tells you which one I believe the answer to be.

3. Bill O’Brien, Houston Texans.  The man saved Penn State football.  (Sorry, that’s not up for debate.  I love the job James Franklin has done … but Bill O’Brien saved that program.)  The man has finished worse than 9-7 once in his five years in Houston (2017).  He’s won three division titles – two of them with Brian Hoyer and “Brave” Brock Osweiler under center.  Christ, he won a playoff game with “Brave” Brock at the helm!  Now that he’s got his stud under center in Deshaun Watson, look out.  Last year was just the beginning.

2. “Fat” Andy Reid, Kansas City Chiefs.  It will be an upset of Biblical proportions for “Fat” Andy to not get career victory 200 before the Chiefs bye in Week Twelve.  He’s five away from that magical mark, and the Chiefs have five home games, plus roadies at the Jags, raiders, and Titans, before the bye.  He'll get there, I believe in Week Six.  

(So you're saying you have the Chiefs opening 5-1?  Yes, yes I am.)

Also, and I’m not just saying this as a Chiefs fan, although certainly it impacts my viewpoint: I so admire this man.  He’s not only the brightest offensive mind in football, he’s not only one of the greatest coach-groomers in NFL history, but most impressively, he was the driving influence that FINALLY got “Klassy” Kevin Keitzman fired this summer from 810 Sports Radio.  (Also, I love that he still refuses to return Kaptain Klassy’s phone calls of “apology”.  I love people who hold a grudge against people that disrespect them, irregardless of whether said disrespect was intentional or not.  (Pause).  Not that I’m one of those people.)

Now if he could do something about Brooke Pryor …

1. Bill Belichick, New England Patriots.  How can you pick anyone else?  As painful as that AFC Title Game was, I finally forced myself to go back and watch the second half and overtime.  (The Patriots led 14-0 at the half.)  The second half was watching two of the greatest of all time throw everything – up to and including the proverbial kitchen sink – onto that field, desperately trying to (“survivor” voice) out think, outwit, and out last the other.  Especially in the fourth quarter.  It was, in the words of Jim Mora Jr., in describing arguably the best NFL game of my lifetime (1998 NFC Wild Card – 49ers 30, Packers 27), it was “really neat!”

Mr. Belichick has posted 18 consecutive winning seasons.  I believe only the 49ers from 1981-1998 (across three different coaches) have managed to come close to that mark (they posted 17 of 18 winning seasons, with only the 1982 strike season failing to come up on the positive side of .500.)  He’s made the playoffs 16 of those 18 seasons.  (The 1981-1998 49ers made the playoffs 16 of 18 as well, missing in 1982 and 1991.)  He’s reached eight – eight! – straight AFC Title Games.  He’s simply put, one of, if not the, greatest coaches of all time.

And to think he was fired, so that Art Modell could hire Ted Marchibroda …