Tuesday, June 15, 2010

the big xii's next (logical?) step

"I wasn't looking for true love,
But now you're looking at me --
You're the only one I can think of,
You're the only one I see ...

All I Need! Is just a little more time,
To be sure, what I feel,
Isn't all in my mind.
'Cause it seems so hard to believe
That you're all I need ..."

-- "All I Need" by the Greatness that is Jack Wagner. Yes, THAT Jack Wagner. You have to love the 1980s, when soap opera and movie stars had major top 5, top 10 smash hits. Rick Springfield, Eddie Murphy, even Don Johnson for crying out loud. Now, we get Justin Bieber. Give me Dr. Peter Burns, thank you, and a side order of his lovely wife Amanda Woodward to go ...

---------------------------------------------------

In the end, Texas got what it wanted.

No surprise there. Texas tends to get what Texas wants. It wanted to get rid of the only credible threat in the North to its dominance. Done, via a ridiculous and absolutely insane ultimatum delivered to Nebraska last week that drove the Big Red Machine to the Big Ten (plus two). It wanted to continue to skewer the revenue sharing imbalance, by being allowed to form its own television network free from outside interference of the mean conference commissioner. Wish granted.

And let me be up front about this. There is NO WAY Texas was ever seriously contemplating leaving. DeLoss Dodds played this BRILLIANTLY. Jesus, I wish I had just 1/100th of his level of intelligence. I honestly just want to meet the man, shake his hand, and just soak in his brilliance for five seconds.

(Side note: Lew Perkins? THIS is how you run a successful BCS program. You don't f*ck your loyal fanbase, you f*ck your opponents. That's why DeLoss Dodds, a Kansas State grad ironically, that's why Mr. Dodds' team essentially runs the Big XII, and you're being forced into retirement. Well there's that, and the fact that you're an arrogant corrupt d*ck who's getting what he deserves. But that's a rant for another post).

With one strategically timed memo, Mr. Dodds destroyed the conference championship game (currently impossible to stage due to fewer than twelve teams) that nearly cost his team a shot at the 2009 BCS Championship. (And did cost his team a shot at the 2001 BCS Championship). He ensured UT now only has to beat one credible foe to reach the BCS Championship Game every season (OU at the Cotton Bowl). He raised UT's hoops viability by driving out the two "weak links" in the hoops world of the conference. (Neither Nebraska nor Colorado have made the NCAA tournament in the last decade, the only two Big XII schools that is true for).

And did I mention that he ensured UT's continued dominance by getting the other nine schools to allow him to form his own television network, free from their interference?

This, Kansas fans? This, Missouri fans? This, KSU or Iowa State or even A&M or Oklahoma fans, THIS is what we're so grateful to see survive?

Actually ... yes. Provided the next step is to replace Nebraska with an even bigger name, and a weaker on-field product.

Notre Dame.

The devil is in the details. Specifically, the financial details.

(Cue the Crazy Steve Theory of the Day!)

I've spent the better part of the day figuring out how in the hell Commissioner Beebe arrived at his revenue figures. Yes, simply removing two schools from the equation and keeping the revenue streams the same, means more money per school, about $3-$3.5 million per year. Which brings UT up to nearly $17 million, which is what the Pac 10 offered. And all things being equal (aka same revenue received no matter which conference they were in), I do believe UT AD Dodds when he says that they "preferred to stay in the Big XII".

(OF COURSE he did -- because he'd run off the only credible threat to Texas Football in the northern half of the conference!)

But -- and here's why I think there's more to come -- SOMETHING has to push the revenue projections from $17 million to $25 million in the next couple years for Texas. Yes, the UT(ry to F*ck With Us! We Dare You!) Network, or whatever the hell they call this coming enterprise, that'll close some of the gap.

But outside of the Lone Star State, and maybe Oklahoma, what cable and/or satellite provider is going to put that channel on its basic tier? Do you see Comcast (based in Philadelphia) doing that? Time Warner won't even put America's Favorite Sport's official channel on its basic tier for Christ's sake (the NFL Network -- channel 212 on DirecTV, channel 669 on Everest, channel "not available" on Time Warner. F*ck you, TW! F*ck you ...).

What makes you think they're gonna put such award-winning documentaries as "From Chris Simms to Major Applewhite to James Brown to Peter Gaudere to Shea Morenz: How Sh*tty Overhyped QBs Cost UT Multiple National Titles" on channel 33? Or such inspring replays as "UCLA 66, Texas 3: Mackovic's Final Stand" on channel 59?

(A game I was at by the way, in September 1997. Check out the boxscore -- it was 38-0 at the half! UCLA scored on its first six possessions! 45-0 before UT scored! In Austin! An 0-2 Pac 10 also-ran up 40, at halftime, against the two-time defending Big XII / Southwest Conference champs! Unreal. I should also note, this game gave rise to one of my favorite swear phrases, yet another phrase I (think) I stole from my old college roommate: "God F*cking Dammit!" I don't recall using that blast before this debacle, but I've certainly used it plenty of times since ...)

Or such insightful pieces as "Kevin Durant, DJ Augustin, Damion James Reflect on Rick Barnes, the only Coach in America Who Could Possibly Lose in Round One with Them on the Roster!" That's got Emmy written all over it! Or my personal favorite: "Bevo: Its What for Dinner!", and then you could have the SI Tailgate Guy go around to various tailgates at Big XII (minus two) campuses showing how they prepare and cook bull for their main course. On second thought, I think at least the local Lawrence channel on Sunflower Cablevision would pick up that one ...

The point is, if the "current status quo" is what we have going forward, this league is going to make Major League Baseball look fair, equitable, and balanced within two years. And NOBODY in their right mind believes even half of all MLB teams have any shot of contention entering the season due to their revenue sharing issues.

The only way this works ... is if there's a bigger name than Nebraska coming on board. The criteria for this newest addition is obvious:

* Midwestern school (to keep travel budgets limited).
* Well recognized name (to ensure national television interest).
* Delivers major media market (to ensure larger TV deal in 2012).
* Competitive, but not overly competitive, in football (to ensure UT, OU, A&M dominance).
* Decently competitive at other sports (to ensure no Nebraska or Colorado like RPI drags that cost NCAA berths).

The criteria lead to two logical conclusions.

The first being TCU. It gives you an added presence in Dallas. They're a legitimate top 10 school in football ... but does anyone really believe they could roll into Austin and win every other year? Or Norman for that matter? (Wait, they did do that the last time they played OU in 2005. OU promptly cancelled the return engagement in Fort Worth. Stay classy Bob Stoops. Stay classy). They're a natural fit in the South, if you split up OU and Texas to ensure they could meet with a national title berth on the line in early December (which needs to happen regardless -- I called for this exact thing to happen last November in a fake mailbag, actually).

But TCU is NOT a bigger name than Nebraska. Hell, most folks across the country probably have no idea what TCU stands for. (Trust me, its misnamed. Which is great -- parents think "hey, this is a Christian school, our kids will behave!", while students can get away with a ton of sh*t. Its the best of both worlds. Wait, in case my folks are reading this, I swear -- I did not drink while underage, smoke illegal tobacco-like products, purchase Durex and/or Trojans on your MasterCard, skip class on sunny 80 degree November afternoons, or blow off a final to play that 007 Bond game. I also never called a sleazy professor a "f*cking c*nt" to her face, a screw-up that nearly cost me graduating on time. Let's keep the "our kid was great in school!" facade intact, deal? Deal. Moving on.)

Which means the North addition needs to be the "grand slam". The "sexy attraction". (Not that TCU folks aren't sexy and/or attractive. Come on. We gave the nation Sandy Duncan, Rod Roddy, Chris Klein, LaDainian Tomlinson, and of course, me! What isn't crazy sexy hot about me!)

And the obvious candidate ... is Notre Dame.

Think of the coup that would be. You ensure OU vs Notre Dame every year. Notre Dame vs Texas two out of every four years, and vs A&M the other two years. You add a NCAA caliber basketball program, both men's and women's. You add national prestige. You have (at the very least) ABC / ESPN and FOX Sports willing to pay to renew your television contract.

And best of all, you tap into THE untapped market for the Big XII, while at the same time raising two gigantic middle fingers, screaming "F*ck You", and dropping a deuce in the Big Ten (plus two)'s front lawn. You turn the tables on those sleazeballs. "You wanna steal one of our football powers? Fine. We'll give you Nebraska, and raise you a Notre Dame!".

Now, I know the obvious response is, "Wait Stevo. If Notre Dame won't join the Big Ten (plus two), what in the hell makes you think they'll join the Big XII (minus two)?" A fair question. Go back to the sixth and seventh sentences in this post. Because the Big XII (minus two) powers that be can grant Notre Dame something that no other conference can offer.

The Notre Dame Television Network.

The sole reason Notre Dame has remained independent in football is because of the NBC contract (which expires in 2014). Why wouldn't the Big XII take the $20 million in revenues that Colorado and Nebraska are forfeiting after this year, fly to South Bend, and say "look it, if you join us, we'll guarantee you at least 3 of your 12 games are on in prime time, either on ABC or ESPN as the national broadcast -- against Texas or A&M, against OU, and against USC. If you join us, you see this $20 million in unmarked bills across the table from you? That's the revenue we didn't give Colorado and Nebraska this year. We're giving it to you to start up your own television network. That's right, the Notre Dame Network. We don't care what you put on there -- its your channel. We promise you, the Big XII Office won't dictate one thing regarding that channel to you. And, as an added bonus, if you'll say "yes" to our offer of membership ... we'll underwrite the start-up costs to get your network on in every major media market in the Central time zone. We already share revenue based on number of televised appearances, so we can guarantee you at least a 50% increase in rights fees alone. To say nothing of the cash you'll be raking in, both interference-free and required-to-share-the-revenue free, with your new TV network, that, again, at a bare minimum, we will guarantee a spot on the basic tier for in Houston, Dallas/Fort Worth, St. Louis, Chicago, and Kansas City, all top 30 Nielsen markets. And you can be damned sure those won't be the only top 30 markets clamoring for your channel when we're done paying off cable and satellite providers all across the continental United States. All you have to do is say "yes" to our bribe ... I mean, our offer, and become the XIIth member of our "new" conference."

How in the hell could Notre Dame POSSIBLY turn that down?

So to summarize: I'm ok with the Big XII basically hitting its knees and fellating UT, OU and A&M. I'm perfectly fine with screwing over the original Big 8 schools at the benefit of the Southworst Four. Provided there's another domino to fall. And that domino is Notre Dame.

If there's one thing that DeLoss Dodds is not, its stupid. The man has shown the past two weeks he's without question THE smartest man in collegiate athletics today, if not ever. He played the Big XII like a government mule, using and abusing it until it had nothing left to offer him, before backing off just enough to let the thing live. He drove off his only real rival to conference dominance. He did it knowing damned well he wasn't leaving the cash cow that is the Big XII, yet threatening to do so, conning the other schools into giving him even more of the revenue pie. He beat the mule, and got his 40 acre to boot. Job well done. Provided Notre Dame is the replacement for what's left.

Because the only thing better than adding a nationally recognized school with a huge following, is adding one that isn't a credible championship threat in any major sport ...

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