my lottery and bucks projections

Its NBA Draft night! Woo!

I will be watching at a Bucks, uuh, watching party. But there might be a live blog pop up at some point, if only to record every genius, smart ass, "he did NOT just go there!" interaction between me, "The Voice of Reason", and whatever nickname Brent wants to give himself.

In the meantime, here's my predictions through the Bucks first round pick at 15, plus the Bucks three second round selections. I'd go deeper than that, but I have work to do today. That, and the World Cup resumes in a few minutes.

1. Washington Wizards.
Biggest Hole: the one Gilbert Arenas nearly blew in teammate Javaris Crittendon? That, or the one between GM Ernie Grunfeld's ears.
Should Pick: John Wall, G, Kentucky. Supposedly the surest thing in the draft.
Will Pick: John Wall, G, Kentucky. He probably is too good to pass up.

2. Philadelphia 76ers.
Biggest Hole: the one in the doughnut Elton Brand is consuming right now.
Should Pick: Derrick Favors, F/C, Georgia Tech. I think he's the best player in this draft.
Will Pick: Evan Turner, F, Ohio State. I am always leery of drafting talent from the Big 10 (plus two). Horrible basketball conference that rarely, if ever, produces talent that delivers on the pro level. Probably because no team in that conference is capable of scoring 60 on an under-12 squad.

3. New Jersey Nets.
Biggest Hole: the one in the ground in Brooklyn, site of the new arena in three years. Can't get built soon enough.
Should Pick: trade down. As a 'Cuse fan, I'm not a big backer of Wes Johnson. Cousins and Monroe's position is already competently filled by Brook Lopez. And its too soon to grab Xavier Henry. So ...
Will Pick: TRADE! Nets move down to seven, picking up the Pistons second rounder (36 overall) and the right to swap future first round picks in 2012 or 2013 that will be lottery protected. Maybe some cash considerations as well. So now on the clock ...

Detroit Pistons.
Biggest Hole: come on, its Detroit. The whole metro area is a (sh*t) hole.
Should Pick: trade up. Which I'm projecting them to do. To draft ...
Will Pick: DeMarcus Cousins, F/C, Kentucky. Right team, perfect fit. Captain Oats approves.

4. Minnesota Timberwolves.
Biggest Hole: debatable, between the idiot GM and incompetent coach. Really, you fire Kevin McHale, fire Flip Saunders, neither of whom I'd trust to walk the dog outside to take a dump ... and you're WORSE as a result? That takes talent!
Should Pick: a point guard? Just kidding. Greg Monroe, C, Georgetown. Allows them to trade Jefferson or Love, get a little breathing room under the cap, and perhaps pursue Rudy Gay to fill their glaring hole at the 2.
Will Pick: Wesley Johnson, F, Syracuse. Again, idiot GM plus incompetent coach equals I'd hate to be a Wolves fan.

5. Sacramento Kings.
Biggest Hole: in the state budget, preventing the Kings from getting a long-overdue and desperately needed new arena.
Should Pick: Greg Monroe, C, Georgetown.
Will Pick: Greg Monroe, C, Georgetown. Like Cousins, right team, perfect fit. This team could steal the eight seed next year, ala OKC this year.

6. Golden State Warriors.
Biggest Hole: where do you begin? The coach is a drunk, the owner is trying to sell, the GM tried to quit only he wasn't allowed to. Good times by the Bay!
Should Pick: Xavier Henry, G/F, Kansas. He would THRIVE in Nelly's run-n-gun system.
Will Pick: Derrick Favors, F, Georgia Tech. Can't believe I slid him this far.

7. New Jersey Nets (via trade from Detroit)
Biggest Hole: getting deeper by the working day. Glad to see a pro team coming back to Mr. Kotter's neighborhood.
Should Pick: Xavier Henry, G/F, Kansas. You trade back projecting he'll be there, and BAMMO! He is!
Will Pick: Xavier Henry, G/F, Kansas. A core of Henry / Harris / Lopez, that's a foundation. And maybe the six seed in the East.

8. LA Clippers.
Biggest Hole: the one in the Clippers budget, paying out fired Coach Dunleavy, fired GM Elgin Baylor, and disgraceful owner Donald Sterling's numerous age and racial and sexual discrimination settlements.
Should Pick: Patrick Patterson, F, Kentucky. Perfect replacement for Marcus Camby, backup if Blake Griffin isn't ready to go come November.
Will Pick: Al-Farouq Aminu, F, Wake Forest. Because they're the Clippers.

9. Utah Jazz.
Biggest Hole: not hiring Mr. William Grigsby to say their name in team promos.
Should Pick: Gordon Hayward, F, Butler. What, a white guy on Utah? No ...
Will Pick: Gordon Hayward, F, Butler. I like this kid. Can definitely fill the hole when Kirilenko leaves in another year.

10. Indiana Pacers.
Biggest Hole: the ones in the strip club Jamaal Tinsley shot up? He hasn't been allowed back since, yet he's still getting paid. You gotta love the League.
Should Pick: trade! The Pacers desperately need a point guard. There's none worth taking here.
Will Pick: TRADE! Pacers slide back to 13 with Toronto, acquiring G Jose Calderon and a lottery protected first round pick, to be acquired no later than 2014. Also toss in some cash considerations and maybe a 2011 second rounder (Toronto doesn't have a 2010 second rounder, the Lakers own it).

Toronto Raptors.
Biggest Hole: the one about to open up when Chris Bosh jumps ship.
Should Pick: trade up. Which I project them to do, to draft ...
Will Pick: Ed Davis, F, North Carolina. I like this kid. Although I worry about drafting forwards from North Carolina in the Great North. The last one sorta, kinda burned every bridge on his way out of town.

11. New Orleans Hornets.
Biggest Hole: the one in the oil rig offshore. Come on, that was too easy.
Should Pick: trade out. Especially if they can move a contract. Hornets are in awful shape tax wise.
Will Pick: Ekpe Udoh, C, Baylor. But I really think they do everything possible to trade here.

12. Memphis Grizzlies.
Biggest Hole: the one in the ground at Graceland. RIP Elvis.
Should Pick: up and move to a new city, preferably with competent ownership.
Will Pick: Cole Aldrich, C, Kansas. Biggest bust of the first round, going to a bust of a franchise. Beautiful.

13. Indiana Pacers (via trade with Toronto).
Biggest Hole: the dent in the scoreboard after the Melee at the Palace? Pacers still haven't recovered from that one.
Should Pick: anyone with even a little bit of integrity and character.
Will Pick: Luke Babbitt, F, Nevada. Not much you can do here, but to emerge with Calderon and the right to the Raptors first rounder sometime in the next few years is a win for this team, no matter who they pick here.

14. Houston Rockets.
Biggest Hole: center, if Yao Ming can't recover from surgery.
Should Pick: Daniel Orton, C, Kentucky. Insurance policy.
Will Pick: Daniel Orton, C, Kentucky. Daryl Morey won't screw this up.

15. YOUR Milwaukee Bucks!!!! (vuvuzelas voice) !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Biggest Hole: the one in the Bucks luxury tax budget if Maggette flops. I like the risk here, mainly because in year one, there isn't any. The Bucks save $1.6 million against the cap, almost $2.5 million in room against the luxury tax threshold. Gives them breathing room to enter the MLE market. But if Maggette bombs out, you're taking on nearly $3 million in added salary / tax room next year (and the cap and tax threshold are going to plummet with the new CBA), and you're staring a $12 million plus hit in 2012-2013. Granted, somewhat offset by getting Michael Redd off the books this year, but come 2012-2013, you have to resign BJ, Bogut, and decide on Maggette. This is a risk, albeit a smart, calculated one with far more upside potential than down.
Should Pick: Avery Bradley, G, Texas. Gives you flexibility if Luke Ridnour wants too much money to resign, or if you can't convince Steve man-crush JJ Redick to take an offer from you (yes, I'm delusional. But Redick is absolutely who this team should be targeting with the MLE).
Will Pick: James Anderson, G, Oklahoma State. I'm good with it. Either Bradley or Anderson makes perfect sense in this spot. John Hammond has yet to screw anything up -- even the Joe Alexander gaffe he turned into (1) John Salmons, (2) this pick, and (3) the See Joe Dunk campaign.

Other Bucks Selections:

37:
Should Pick: a foreigner to stash away for a couple years, or a first round projection that's slid. With three of the next eleven picks, they should be able to do both.
Will Pick: Tibor Pliess, C, Germany. Give him a couple grooming years in Europe, and then bring him over as a solid, cheap backup to Andrew Bogut.

44:
Should Pick: best value on the board. Candidates I think have at least a 50/50 shot of still being here include: Darington Hobson (F, New Mexico); grievis vasquez (deuche, Maryland); Stanley Robinson (F, UConn); Luke Harangody (F, Notre Dame); Quincy Poindexter (F, Washington).
Will Pick: Tiny Gallon, F, Oklahoma. A little bit of a headcase, but every team can afford one. You don't want more than one, but if he's talented enough, you chance it with one. The Bucks currently don't have one, and Gallon has freakish talent. Good value pick here.

47:
Should Pick: if only for comedic value via my reaction to the pick, there's only one candidate here.
Will Pick: (adam silver voice) With the forty-seventh pick in the 2010 NBA Draft, the Milwaukee Bucks select ... Jon Scheyer, guard, Duke University. Please, Mr. Hammond, please, please, please make this happen ...