Saturday, September 12, 2015

the quick week one picks

Sorry for the half assed effort.  I'll do better by Thursday.

Season picks up by (hopefully) Monday, (probably) Tuesday.

Thursday: pick would have been at Pats (-7 1/2) 31, Steelers 21.  As always, starting out a loser.

Upset / Week: Ravens (+4 1/2) over donkeys.

Non-Chiefs, Non-Jets, Non-Already Played Picks:

* Packers 24, at Bears (+7) 21.  Closer than expected.
* Colts 24, at Bills (+2 1/2) 23.  This line makes no sense ... although the favorite will win.
* at Redskins (+3) 31, Dolphins 14.  Miami is more overrated than Jim Beam.
* at Jaguars (+3) 24, "Sex" Panthers 20.  A battle of two expansion teams almost old enough to drink!
* Seahawks (-4) 34, at Rams 10.  Who's ready for the AFC West rival LA Rams, Chiefs fans?
* at "Super" Cardinals (-1) 24, Saints 22.  Dammit.  The line is perfect.  Will end 24-23 Cards.
* at "Super" Chargers (-2 1/2) 38, Lions 14.  Don't read anything into this outcome.
* at Bucs (-2 1/2) 3, Titans 0.  Read everything into this outcome, for both squads.
* at raiders (+3) 28, Bengals 20.  Neither of these teams is finishing above .500 ... or in last place.
* Ravens (+4 1/2) 63, at donkeys 13.  Watch satan manning's new Nationwide ads, and chant this as its catchphrase, Chiefs fans: "your career?  Ends Thursday night!!!!!!"
* at Cowboys 28, Giants (+7) 24.  Line seems slightly too high.
* Eagles (-2 1/2) 35, at Falcons 13.  One of these birds, is gonna "fly" to new heights this year.  Note: it ain't Atlanta.
* Vikings (-1) 41, at 49ers 13.  I'll be sound asleep by halftime.

The Jets Prediction:

* at Jets (-3) 16, Browns 10.  Prediction: the Todd Bowles era ends even worse than the Pete Carroll, Al Groh, and Bill Belichick eras of this franchise, did.  (AKA, "one and done" ... or in Mr. Belichick's case, "48 hours and done".)

The Chiefs Prognostication:

* Chiefs (pick) 31, at Texans 6.  Why does anyone think this will be competitive?  And I ask this as someone who has both squads comfortably (aka "at least a game clear of the competition") in the playoffs in my season predictions.

Why does anyone think this will be competitive?

The Chiefs defense is going to demolish Houston's offensive efforts.  If the Texans post 300 yards of offense, I'll be stunned.  If Brian Hoyer is the answer, "incompetent quarterback" has to be the question.  There's no Arian Foster, there's no Andre Johnson, there's no anything to matriculate the ball down the field for them.

Yes, the Texans defense is stout, but Chiefs fans?  It's all wrong, for the personnel they have.  They employ Romeo Crennel as their DC.  In the interest of full disclosure, Romeo Crennel is amongst the two finest human beings the Kansas City Chiefs have ever employed.  He is a damned honorable, decent, amazing dude, who I would shake the hand of anytime God gives me the blessed opportunity to do so.

He is also a coordinator completely wrong for a defense built to attack.

A defense built to dink, duck, dodge, and deflect?  That's Romeo's game.  And he does it better than few others ever have.  He'll give you 500 yards ... and fifteen points.

But Houston's strength is its front seven.  Its strength is in overpowering the offensive line before Alex Smith hits step five.  It's not something a Romeo Crennel defense is empowered to do.

This one is going to get ugly, early.

(Which is why I have the Texans in, as the sixth seed -- they'll turn to Ryan Mallett in the third quarter, and he'll save their season, in the fifteen weeks to come.  You're damned right I haven't given up on my desire 2011 first rounder yet ...)

I promise next week, you'll get a legitimate picks post.  And I'll get the season long picks up.  Work did not go as planned this week; today did not go as planned.

But -- but! -- at least I got these up in time, to save you a few bucks, in your gambling pools and/or bookie bets.

That has to count for something ...

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