I gave you my heart.
The very next day?
You gave it away.
This year?
To save me some tears?
I'll give it to someone
Special ..."
-- "Last Christmas" by Wham!.
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Week Thirteen promises to be something ... hang on, let's do this right.
Ladies and gentlemen, the late, great Mr. Hugh M. Hefner. Hef?
(hef voice) Thanks Stevo! People? This is going to be something ... REALLY special!
Thanks Hef!
The final week of the regular season has arrived for the 2L2C League ... and only one seed is clinched -- the three seed. No matter what, the JYD Huskerbugeaters cannot be any seed other than the three seed.
But while the seeding is still very much up for grabs, only one playoff berth is ... and God bless it, it's a de facto playoff game for the six seed this week.
Here then is where we stand, on the precipice of the postseason.
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1. The De Facto Playoff Game.
* Patrick is Mahomes (6-6-0) at team tito (6-6-0).
This is as simple -- and as great -- as it gets.
This weekend, at Deportation Field at ICE Stadium, the winner is in, the loser is out.
(In the unlikely event of a tie, Patrick is Mahomes would hold tiebreaker via head to head record, as they won the first matchup earlier this season, and advance to the postseason.)
Four weeks ago, this game having any significance for any reason save for seeding seemed ridiculous. But with tito winning five of six, and Mahomes dropping three of four, here we are.
Considering the line on this puppy is only two points, we could be in for some
A. Key Team for Each Squad.
* tito: Kansas City Chiefs. tito needs a huge day out of Kareem Hunt, and there's no reason the Chiefs D can't pile up the sacks and turnovers against a god awful raiders squad.
* Mahomes: Indianapolis Colts. If Andrew Luck (at Jaguars) throws up his usual stats the last two months (300 plus yards, 3 plus TDs), tito is in a world of trouble.
B. Monday Night Madness.
* tito: Zach Ertz, TE, Eagles. Ertz literally saved tito's season with his performance against the Cowboys in prime time two weeks ago. Can he do it again inside Fake RFK Monday Night?
* Mahomes: Josh Adams, RB, Eagles. Or will the Eagles opt to ground and pound against a desperate Redskins team, to keep its' injury-riddled defense off the field? To think Doug Pederson's playcalling may decide this matchup just makes it even more awesome.
C. Potential Last Minute Changes.
* tito: only DeAndre Hopkins (vs Browns) is listed as questionable. He is expected to start in what could turn into one fun noon game (Browns at Texans) before it's all said and done.
* Mahomes: Matt Brieda (at Seahawks), AJ Green (vs those people), and Gus Edwards (at Atlanta) are all listed as questionable. All three are expected to start.
D. The Prediction.
In the end, I think the lack of production from the player I expected to be my most consistent contributor is going to bite me in the proverbial ass. I've closed 5-1 despite getting next to nothing out of Matt Stafford. Last week it didn't matter; I had severe bye issues. (Half my lineup is Chiefs and Rams players). This week it does. And "The Overrated One" has to face a Rams defense coming off a bye, potentially getting Aqib Talib back to boot.
tito will fight ... and go down fighting.
* Patrick is Mahomes (-2.2) 108, team tito 103.
2. The Fight For the One Seed.
* Banana Hammocks (7-5-0) at Salty Bananas (10-2-0).
* GO BIG RED (10-2-0) at Orinoco Flow N My Pantalones (7-5-0).
All four of these squads are locked into playoff berths. Both BIG RED and the Bananas have clinched their respective divisions and will enjoy a bye in the first round * . But that doesn't mean The Chip Trough and The ConDome won't be rocking this weekend.
The Bananas take the top seed with:
* W vs Hammocks, or
* BIG RED L vs Pantalones, or
* T vs Hammocks and BIG RED L or T vs Pantalones.
BIG RED takes the top seed with:
* W vs Pantalones and Bananas L or T vs Hammocks, or
* T vs Pantalones and Bananas L vs Hammocks.
Prediction: I think BIG RED wins big ... but come on folks. We all know what you're here for, what you want to know.
Which banana's latex outer shell holds up best at the ConDome this weekend?
For that one, I'll take the home team.
If only because it will make section four so, so much more interesting to figure out.
Top Seed: Salty Bananas.
Second Seed: GO BIG RED.
(*: I have long argued that the top two seed (who earned their byes) should be allowed to pick which week's FFL scores they get to use in Week Fifteen -- that week, or the prior week's when they were on a bye. This is a rule change I hope gets approved this offseason. Given that it hasn't been in twenty one years, I'm not holding my breath.)
3. The Lock.
JYD's Huskerbugeaters are locked into the three seed. They can't climb due to (a) trailing GO BIG RED by two games with one to go, and they can't fall due to owning tiebreaker over everyone at 7-5.
The Huskerbugeaters own tiebreaker over the Banana Hammocks due to a head to head victory in their only matchup, and they own tiebreaker over the Pantalones due to superior division record.(6-3 vs 4-5) that, again, they own due to being two up with one to play.
The defending champs are exactly where they want to be ...
4. The Clusterf*ck.
While the top two seeds are down to two teams, and the three seed is locked in, the last three seeds in the playoffs are a complete clusterf*ck. Exactly as it should be.
Entering the final week, the four teams jockeying for these three seeds sit:
4. Orinoco Flow N My Pantalones (7-5-0).
* The Pantalones owns tiebreaker over the Hammocks due to head to head win.
5. Banana Hammocks (7-5-0).
* The Hammocks are fifth due to superior record over teams below them.
6. Patrick is Mahomes (6-6-0).
* The Mahomes own tiebreaker over tito due to head to head win.
7. team tito (6-6-0).
* The titos are seventh due to superior record over teams below them.
As noted above, either Mahomes or tito is going to the postseason, and Pantalones and Hammocks are already there. But what seed will they go as? This is where it gets entertaining. Let's examine the scenarios, shall we?
A. As I Predicted Above.
In this scenario, there's a three way tie at 7-6 with Pantalones, Hammocks, and Mahomes. Should that occur, your seeds would be:
4. Mahomes. Eliminate within the division first (Mahomes would top Pantalones via divisional record), then apply head to head win over Hammocks to emerge on top.
5. Pantalones. Holds head to head win over Hammocks.
6. Hammocks. They're still in!
B. What if tito Wins Instead.
Again, a three way tie at 7-6, just with team tito instead of Patrick is Mahomes. Should this occur, your seeds would be:
4. tito. Yes folks, there is a very plausible scenario to team tito landing the four seed. First, eliminate within the division, where I hold tiebreaker over Pantalones via head to head sweep. Since Hammocks and tito did not play this year, we apply record against common opponents, which tito wins 5-4 vs 4-5 due to the Week Thirteen results. (We're both currently 4-4 in common opponents entering this week).
5. Pantalones. Holds head to head win over Hammocks.
6. Hammocks. They're still in!
C. Upsets Galore.
In this scenario, Hammocks upset the Bananas, Pantalones upset BIG RED, and tito upsets Mahomes. In this scenario, your seeds would be:
4. Pantalones. Holds head to head win over Hammocks.
5. Hammocks. Would have better record than tito.
6. tito. They're still in!
D. Hybrid One.
In this scenario, Pantalones upset BIG RED, but Team Salty beats the Hammocks. Then your seeds are:
4. Pantalones. Stands alone at 8-5-0.
5. Winner of Mahomes / tito. Both would hold tiebreaker over Hammocks - Mahomes via head to head win, tito via common opponents.
6. Hammocks. They're still in!
E. Hybrid Two.
In this scenario, the Hammocks upset Team Salty, but BIG RED takes care of business against the Pantalones. Which would mean this seeding scenario:
4. Hammocks. Stands alone at 8-5-0.
5. Winner of Mahomes / tito. Both would hold tiebreakers over Pantalones -- Mahomes via divisional record, tito via head to head sweep.
6. Pantalones. They're still in!
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No matter what happens this week, this has been one fun season. From established dominance on Day One (Salty Bananas 0.4 points away from opening 6-0), to late surges (tito going from 1-5 to 6-6 via a five game winning streak), to shocking incompetence (former champion B*tch Kitties having two four game losing streaks; usual playoff team Jasson's Occiffers opening 0-4, then sinking to 1-9), one thing you can't deny: when our league turned 21, as it did this season?
It got through at least fifteen of the shots, before falling backwards off the bar stool.
Also, since I won't get the Week Thirteen picks done before kickoff tonight, I'll take * Saints (-7 1/2) 34, at Cowboys 20. (jimmy buffett voice) Come Monday, boys and girls? We should have a magnificent 6-6-0 three way clusterf*ck atop the NFC East. Just like the AFC West at this point last year, when the Chiefs, Chargers, and raiders were all 6-6-0 with four to play. That doesn't suck. That doesn't suck at all ...
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